By Kim Mackrael and Benjamin Katz
BRUSSELS -- If President Trump follows through with a threat to put new tariffs on European allies over Greenland, some $100 billion worth of American exports -- from Boeing aircraft to bourbon whiskey -- could get caught in the crossfire.
The European Union created a list of hundreds of categories of American products last year that it planned to target with import duties if trade talks with the U.S. unraveled. Those levies were put on hold after the two sides struck a deal last summer, but are set to kick in on Feb. 7 unless the bloc acts to extend the suspension.
That gives the EU a relatively straightforward option to retaliate should the U.S. impose new tariffs on a number of European countries for opposing Trump's plan to take control of Greenland. The president has said Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the U.K., the Netherlands and Finland will be hit with 10% tariffs from Feb. 1, rising to 25% in June.
EU officials say they are giving priority to dialogue with the Trump administration to avoid escalating the situation. The leaders of the bloc's 27 member countries are due to meet Thursday evening to discuss the issue. Officials and diplomats say firm decisions are unlikely before the U.S. imposes new tariffs. While last year's tariff list is an option if the bloc chooses to retaliate, it could still change its targets or respond with different measures.
American goods were chosen by EU officials last year with the aim of cranking up pressure on the U.S. economy without causing too much harm to European businesses and consumers. The list consists of more than 200 pages of specific product categories ranging from big ticket items such as airplanes to niche imports including jukeboxes, chewing gum and umbrellas.
A trade spat between the U.S. and the EU would have a major effect on global commerce. The two jurisdictions are each others' largest trading partners and their economies are deeply intertwined.
"As both sides sift through what they want to retaliate against, they have to be mindful that they may be shooting themselves in the foot," said Penny Naas, senior vice president at the German Marshall Fund, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank.
Here are some of the sectors and companies that could be targeted:
Aerospace
Among the most exposed industries to the potential new tariff list is aerospace. The value of American aircraft imports that could be hit by the levies stood at about $12.8 billion in 2024, according to an EU trade document reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.
Boeing would be a considerable casualty, with aircraft set to be hit by a 30% levy, according to an EU document published last year. America's biggest exporter counts European airlines such as Ireland's Ryanair among its largest customers. Ryanair Chief Executive Michael O'Leary said last year that he would rather defer deliveries of aircraft than pay to cover tariff costs.
Last year, Boeing handed over 73 aircraft to EU airlines and lessors, about 12% of its annual deliveries, according to the company's latest data. The planemaker's order book includes 700 aircraft destined for EU buyers. Overall, Boeing reported European sales of $8.7 billion in 2024, about 13% of total revenue. (European sales includes some non-EU countries)
Other U.S. aviation companies would be hit too. Those include Textron, which makes the Cessna 172 popular among amateur pilots, and General Dynamics, which owns private-jet manufacturer Gulfstream.
Automotive
American-made cars are on the EU's tariff list, with most categories expected to be hit with levies of 25%. One wrinkle for Europe: America's biggest car exporter is BMW. The German automaker has a factory in Spartanburg, S.C., that churns out hundreds of thousands of sport-utility vehicles every year, many of them headed to Europe.
Mercedes also has a big presence in the U.S., using its factory in Alabama to make cars that get shipped around the world -- including to Europe. That means European tariffs on imports of American-made vehicles would risk hitting two of the continent's best known luxury automakers.
Tesla makes most of the cars it sells in Europe at sites in Germany and China. But the U.S. automaker also imports a modest number of its premium models -- the S and the X -- from its factory in Fremont, Calif.
Tariffs of 25% on American motorcycles would hamper Harley-Davidson, which counts Europe as its second-biggest market. The company has factories in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, both critical swing states. Harley attempted to bypass European tariffs on its products during the first Trump administration by shifting some production to Thailand.
Food and drink
American whiskey faces a potential 30% EU tariff, according to the bloc's list. Targeting the spirit is particularly sensitive because it is manufactured in Republican states: Kentucky and Tennessee.
It wouldn't be the first time American distillers are caught in the crossfire of a wider trade fight. An earlier U.S.-EU spat led to a 20% drop in American whiskey exports to the EU between 2018 and 2021, according to the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States, after the EU retaliated against tariffs Trump imposed in his first term.
Whiskey has caught Trump's attention before. After the EU said it was considering retaliatory tariffs on whiskey last year, Trump posted on social media that he would hit back with a 200% levy on Champagne and other alcoholic products from the bloc. Neither threat materialized at the time -- although Trump again raised the possibility of a 200% tariff on French wines on Monday.
Other American-made alcoholic beverages also appear on the EU's tariff list, including wine and beer.
Agriculture
Soybeans are a high-impact target for the EU because they are a mainstay of American agriculture, especially in Republican-leaning states -- and the bloc is a big buyer. New tariffs of 25%, as proposed by the EU list, could inflict further pain on American farmers who already suffered losses from China halting purchases of the crop amid trade tensions with the Trump administration last year.
European officials have said previously that soybeans are a good choice for retaliation because the bloc can get them from other producers, such as Brazil or Argentina.
Other agricultural products that could face tariffs based on the EU's retaliation list include beef, corn, fruits, nuts, vegetables and orange juice. Agricultural machinery is also on the list.
Write to Kim Mackrael at kim.mackrael@wsj.com and Benjamin Katz at ben.katz@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 20, 2026 09:53 ET (14:53 GMT)
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