MARKET WRAPS
Stocks:
European shares were up ahead of eurozone inflation data and as investors weighed the impact of the U.S. government shutdown .
"For markets, the key issue is not just political gridlock but the suspension of crucial data releases, including the jobs report that was meant to guide the Federal Reserve ahead of its October meeting," Natixis said. "This adds another layer of uncertainty for monetary policy."
ADP private payrolls numbers for September will still land later, but other key data won't be published for the duration of the shutdown.
Meanwhile, eurozone inflation looks likely to have been a little stronger than expected last month , Pantheon Macroeconomics said. Annual inflation accelerated among all of the eurozone's large economies in September, with data for the whole currency area expected today.
"The base scenario remains that the European Central Bank has reached the end of its interest-rate cutting cycle ," Commerzbank said.
Shares on the Move
European pharmaceutical stocks traded sharply higher after Trump unveiled plans to launch a government-run website, dubbed TrumpRx, for consumers to buy drugs directly from manufacturers.
"[Tuesday's] announcement was specific to Pfizer, but may represent a blueprint for broader cooperation between the pharma industry and the Trump administration," Jefferies said.
Stocks to Watch
Greggs's slower shop rollout will continue to be a concern, even though the U.K. bakery chain said its pipeline of openings remains strong into next year, RBC Europe said.
Novartis's Rhapsido received approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to treat hives, but the drug is also being evaluated in other conditions that could expand the company's immunology and neuroscience portfolios, Vontobel said.
Sabadell's management made limited incremental arguments when issuing a formal rejection to BBVA's improved takeover bid, RBC Capital Markets said. The Spanish bank again recommended that its shareholders don't tender their shares to the offer.
U.S. Markets:
Stock futures were down after Republicans and Democrats failed to strike an agreement to fund the federal government into the new fiscal year.
Most investors don't think the government shutdown will have much impact on markets, noting that stocks have generally performed well during previous funding impasses.
Forex:
The euro rose and was likely to remain near current levels against the dollar.
The anticipated rise in eurozone inflation was unlikely to be significant enough to prompt a revision of interest-rate expectations, Commerzbank said.
The dollar fell against a basket of currencies following the government shutdown.
Bonds:
The 10-year Bund yield was trading little changed , but it could retest the downside amid U.S. government shutdown worries, while month-end flows fade, Commerzbank Research said.
The European Central Bank is expected to keep the deposit rate unchanged at 2% over the next few quarters, which should keep short-end Bund yields stable , Raiffeisen Bank said.
Treasury yields rose as the U.S. government shutdown began. Rises are limited, however, as the shutdown has been well anticipated and is expected to last only for a short period of time.
However, looking at the three shutdowns lasting more than 14 days, MainSky finds that Treasurys are the clear winners .
"Yields on ten-year Treasury bonds have fallen during all shutdowns," it said. "The uncertainty creates demand for safe assets."
Energy:
Oil prices edged higher in early trade following a two-day slide.
"September marked a second straight monthly drop for crude, reflecting persistent supply concerns," MUFG said.
Metals:
Gold prices climbed to a fresh record as investors turned to safe-haven assets.
Gold Chart
Comex gold futures were on track to test resistance at $4,000/oz, RHB Retail Research said, according to the daily chart.
The "higher high" closing, together with the relative strength index pointing upward, reaffirmed strong bullish momentum is in play.
Copper
Copper remained largely flat , supported by concerns over risks to supply.
A mudslide at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia has worsened the supply outlook, taking 3% of global mine supply offline, ANZ said. China's crackdown on excess competition and overcapacity was also expected to reduce refined copper production.
EMEA HEADLINES
BOE Deputy Governor Sees Inflation Resuming Fall After 'Hump'
The U.K.'s annual rate of inflation is on track to fall to the Bank of England's 2% target despite a recent pickup, Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden said Tuesday.
The annual inflation rate was 3.8% in August, and the BOE expects it to rise to 4% this month before falling back.
Britain's Leader Promised to Defeat Populism. So Far, He's Losing.
LIVERPOOL, England-Keir Starmer was ushered into Downing Street last year with a big majority and the promise that a dry, pragmatic leader of a British center-left party could prove an antidote to a world of rising populism.
So far, it isn't working.
Tate & Lyle Lowers Revenue, Earnings View on Slow Market Demand
Tate & Lyle said it expected lower revenue and earnings for fiscal 2026 after a slowdown in market demand in the first half.
The London-listed provider of food-and-beverage ingredients on Wednesday said it now expects revenue and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for the year ending March 31 to decline by low-single digit percent compared to the prior year.
GLOBAL NEWS
Today's ADP Jobs Data Will Matter. The Government Shutdown Might Delay BLS's Numbers.
Economists expect the latest data to show that September proved to be another weak month for hiring in the private sector.
The monthly ADP National Employment Report for September is set to be released at 8:15 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday. Economists surveyed by FactSet expect that the U.S. private employers added 50,000 jobs in September. That's down slightly from the 54,000 positions that ADP reported in August, with sectors such as leisure and hospitality and construction gaining ground despite the broader slowdown in hiring.
Oil Price Outlook Steady as Brent Navigates Supply Glut Worries, Geopolitical Risks
Major Wall Street banks have kept their oil-price forecasts for the year largely stable as investors weigh concerns about an impending supply glut against risks of disruption to Russian supplies.
A survey compiled by The Wall Street Journal-which includes projections from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley-showed Brent crude is expected to average $63.56 a barrel in the fourth quarter, while West Texas Intermediate is seen at $60.36 a barrel. That is in line with last month's projections of $63.57 and $60.30.
Asia Manufacturing PMIs Show Diverging Impact of Tariffs
Asian factory activity is diverging across the region as the full weight of U.S. tariffs starts to be felt, reshaping demand and supply dynamics for manufacturers.
S&P Global's latest purchasing managers indexes showed a broad uptick in output at the end of the third quarter, but also weak spots in exports as trade uncertainty simmers, keeping demand subdued.
White House Withdraws Nominee to Lead Bureau of Labor Statistics
WASHINGTON-The White House withdrew the nomination of conservative economist E.J. Antoni to run the Bureau of Labor Statistics, according to people familiar with the decision.
A White House official praised Antoni and said the president will soon nominate a new candidate to lead BLS.
Attorneys for Tony Hsieh's Family Find Few Clues About Surprise Will
Attorneys for the tech entrepreneur Tony Hsieh's family have searched his calendar, dug through business records and reviewed estate-planning documents for any clues about the origins of a mysterious will that surfaced earlier this year.
Among the few details they have uncovered are postmarkings on two envelopes that arrived at a Las Vegas courthouse earlier this year related to the purported will, the attorneys said in a filing last week. One envelope was mailed from Greenwich, Conn., with a Las Vegas return address. Another was mailed from Fairless Hills, Pa., with a return address in Cheyenne, Wyo.
Trump Tells Generals the Military Will Be Used to Fight 'Enemy Within'
President Trump hailed the use of military force to police American cities, telling generals and admirals during a Tuesday address that it was important to quell "the enemy within."
"San Francisco, Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, they're very unsafe places and we're gonna straighten them out one by one," Trump told hundreds of senior U.S. military officers packed into a hall at the Marine Corps base in Quantico, Va.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 01, 2025 05:00 ET (09:00 GMT)
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