Tesla stock was down 1.1% in premarket trading Wednesday, just ahead of the company’sreleaseof first-quarter delivery data.
On weekdays, Tesla typically releases results before the start of regular trading at 9:30 a.m. Eastern time. Investors can look for the news between 8 a.m. and 9 a.m.
When news arrives, investors will want a delivery number north of 360,000 vehicles. The company-compiled consensus is closer to 380,000 cars, but investors are already braced for the worst.
Coming into Wednesday trading, Tesla stock was down 34% so far this year and off 45% from a record high of just under $489 a share reached in mid-December.
Delivery expectations contributed to the declines. Since mid-December, Wall Street’s estimates for first-quarter deliveries have fallen from an average of about 470,000 vehicles to 380,000. Two issues explain why estimates have fallen.
For a start, investors fear Musk’s political activities are turning off some core Tesla buyers—politically left-leaning people looking to go green.
Tesla also updated its most popular vehicle. The Model Y. Model updates can create a sales air pocket with buyers waiting for the new versions with updated features and styling.
Any number above 360,000 should be enough to keep shares stable. A number below 350,000 could have investors facing more pain.
In the first quarter of 2024, Tesla delivered about 387,000 vehicles. Wall Street was looking for closer to 425,000. The report was a surprising miss even though Wall Street estimates were falling ahead of the data—just like in 2025.
Tesla stock dropped roughly 30% in the few weeks after first-quarter 2024 results before bottoming out at around $140 a share. It took an April 2024 promise from Musk to host a robo-taxi event to help shares stabilize and then regain their momentum.
Tesla’s Robotaxi Day happened on Oct. 10, and the potential for millions of self-driving Teslas to collect fares captured the imagination of investors.
Looking ahead, Tesla is supposed to start a self-driving cab service in Austin in June. Investors will likely have to wait for the first-quarter earnings report, near the end of March, to hear an update about that.
