Nvidia $(NVDA)$ was the most remarkable technology story of 2024 - both in terms of its products and impact on the stock market. The company's strategic advancements in data-center GPUs and networking; its growth and ambitions in services; and its strength in automotive, robotics and other emerging industries have solidified Nvidia's market leadership.
It's hard to imagine any of Nvidia's rivals being able to replicate the company's magic 2024. In the third quarter of 2024, Nvidia reported revenue of $35.1 billion, marking a 94% increase from the same period in 2023. This growth was largely driven by the data-center segment, which achieved a record revenue of $30.8 billion - a 112% year-over-year increase - fueled by growing demand for AI and data center GPUs and secondary solutions. Just 18 months earlier, Nvidia's entire quarterly revenue was less than $7.5 billion. To call Nvidia's rise meteoric would be an understatement.
Nvidia goes for an encore
Despite somewhat conservative first-quarter projections, Nvidia's data center GPU business is expected to see substantial growth in 2025. There is still a lot in the pipeline for the B200 Blackwell GPU, and even the previous generation Hopper GPUs, still being filled for tier-1 and tier-2 service providers. The Blackwell Ultra "B300" GPUs are rumored to feature drastically improved performance for key inference workloads, though with more power draw to get there, and a larger memory capacity to help with larger and more complex models. We'll likely see more changes around software advancements and precision capabilities that bring more "effective" performance increases than ever.
These significant performance and efficiency improvements will move hyperscalers to initiate another cycle of upgrades - all of them eager to stay out front in offering developers and enterprises the best performance and the latest AI models. Those same major cloud-service providers, including Microsoft $(MSFT)$ Azure, continue to highlight their use of Nvidia's latest chips as a key selling point.
Nvidia's software ecosystem remains robust, providing a competitive edge that doesn't seem to be fading. The company has mastered the art of creating marketing moments and leadership messaging opportunities with every software update and key milestone its engineers create.
Expansion into services
Nvidia is expanding its services to capture a larger share of AI infrastructure revenue through initiatives such as AI Foundry and Nvidia Infrastructure Management Services (NIMs). By partnering directly with enterprises, Nvidia aims to secure higher margins and potentially bypass traditional hyperscalers in addressing market needs.
Nvidia also is exploring growth opportunities beyond the traditional AI data center. The company is investing in automotive, robotics, the Omniverse and simulation projects such as Earth-2. These ventures are expected to open new revenue streams and drive innovation.
While the data center segment garners significant attention, Nvidia's GeForce line is a leader in the PC gaming market. With new GPUs expected to be unveiled soon, Nvidia is attempting to reinvigorate the gaming space with enhanced performance and features. The ongoing trend of increasing prices in the PC gaming sector suggests that Nvidia may continue to grow its margins in this area.
Nvidia also will likely enter the AI PC race, bringing an Arm Holdings-based chip $(ARM)$ to the Windows PC segment, and competing with Intel $(INTC)$, Qualcomm $(QCOM)$ and AMD $(AMD)$ for the growth of the Copilot+ PC. How might Nvidia become the surprise winner here? If it can differentiate with higher-performance options that include its top-tier graphics and integrated AI technology.
Not without risk
Nvidia faces several internal and external challenges that could disappoint investors if it misfires:
-- Commoditization of AI-software infrastructure: The adoption of general software tools supporting competing solutions, such as AMD's MI300X or Intel's Gaudi, could lead customers to consider alternatives, shifting the competitive landscape. It is often mentioned that the competitive "moat" that keeps Nvidia's advantage in the AI space is not so much its GPU hardware, but its CUDA and associated software tools and libraries. Normalization of that software ecosystem would make it easier for integrators to multisource or bounce between GPU vendors each generation.
-- Custom silicon by CSPs: Major cloud providers such as Alphabet's Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure and Amazon AMZN AWS have been developing custom AI accelerators and processors. Continued advancements in this area could limit the growth rate and adoption of future Nvidia AI GPUs if the vendors stick with the investment and plan. It is a huge financial risk for these vendors, so it won't surprise me if one or more pull back or shut down these plans over the next 24 months.
-- Market saturation: With an estimated 95% market share in the AI-chip industry, Nvidia would be hit by any stagnation or decline in AI-market growth. The same risk is applicable if Nvidia's customers don't see stronger utilization and revenue streams from AI implementations, regardless of capital investments. In contrast, competitors with smaller market shares could still experience growth in a stagnant or shrinking market, taking sales from Nvidia by offering better value or ready availability.
-- Competition with partners in vertical services: Nvidia's expansion into services that compete with cloud providers, such as DGX Cloud and GeForce Now, may strain relationships and affect future orders.
Valuation and growth
Despite its high P/E ratio, Nvidia's stock is modestly valued compared to peers like AMD and Arm Holdings. Nvidia's diversified product portfolio and strategic investments will enable the company to sustain growth in 2025 and beyond even if there's a decline in AI-hardware investments. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang has earned the respect of the financial markets at this point and should get the benefit of the doubt on moving the company to whatever might be next.
Nvidia's impressive performance in 2024 sets a strong foundation for 2025. By leveraging its strengths in data center GPUs, networking, services, and emerging product categories, Nvidia can continue to carry the technology industry.
Ryan Shrout is president of Signal65 and founder at Shrout Research. Follow him on X @ryanshrout. He has provided consulting services for AMD, Qualcomm, Intel, Arm Holdings, Micron Technology, Nvidia and others. Shrout holds shares of Intel.