特朗普“二进宫”，通胀风险仍遭市场无视？专家：别太低估

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特朗普“二进宫”，通胀风险仍遭市场无视？专家：别太低估

华尔街见闻2024-11-07

媒体报道，在特朗普胜选后，美国的通胀保值债券（TIPS）市场开始活跃起来，盈亏平衡通胀率（breakevens）上升了超过10个基点。但专家撰文指出，市场尚未完全反映出因大选结果加剧的现存通胀风险。彭博宏观经济策略师Simon White在ZeroHedge撰文表示，特朗普的胜利并非引发美国通胀的必要因素，但确实会助长通胀。他分析称，目前价格增长已趋于稳定，但传说中的“最后一公里”去通胀之路已...

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Expert: Don't underestimate it too much","themeId":"5f468aa3b62f9b2f3764ffd118054396","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SPY":0.77,"TIPS":1,"OEF":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SH":0.6},"content_text":"媒体报道，在特朗普胜选后，美国的通胀保值债券（TIPS）市场开始活跃起来，盈亏平衡通胀率（breakevens）上升了超过10个基点。但专家撰文指出，市场尚未完全反映出因大选结果加剧的现存通胀风险。\n彭博宏观经济策略师Simon White在ZeroHedge撰文表示，特朗普的胜利并非引发美国通胀的必要因素，但确实会助长通胀。他分析称，目前价格增长已趋于稳定，但传说中的“最后一公里”去通胀之路已变成了一场马拉松。稳健的经济增长、强劲的企业利润率、中国不断增长的刺激措施以及美国近2万亿美元的财政赤字，早已将通胀推上复苏之路。而如果特朗普按预期执政，实施加征关税、减税、增加支出的既定政策，则通胀风险会进一步加剧。\n然而，他仍然认为，市场还是低估了通胀前景。周三美债收益率的变动中，只有约40%是来自盈亏平衡通胀率。而通胀盈亏平衡率是名义债券收益率与通胀保值债券收益率之间的差。该数值反映了市场对未来通胀率的预期：当盈亏平衡点上升时，说明市场预期未来通胀将会增加；反之，当盈亏平衡点下降时，说明市场预期通胀会减弱。\n此外，“CPI固定掉期”（CPI fixing swaps），即市场对未来12个月CPI的预期，几乎没有变动。具体来说，这类掉期反映了市场对未来某段时间内（通常为12个月）的CPI水平预期。如果市场认为未来通胀会上升，CPI固定掉期的价格就会上涨，因为交易双方对未来高通胀的风险需求更高。\n\nWhite表示，诚然这类产品流动性较差，也可能会在当天有所变动，但如果观察SOFR期权，也能传达出类似的信息。通胀极端尾部风险的概率仍然较低，这里的风险指的是美联储被迫在2025年12月将利率提高到4.75%以上（假设美联储如预期在周四会议上降息25个基点，明年则需再次加息）。虽然发生这种情况的概率一直在上升，但目前仍仅略高于10%。\n\n因此White认为，在目前看来，似乎需要很大的力量才能迫使美联储明年再次加息。他认为，目前的情况可能看似合理，但当可能出现的通胀发展前景的可能结果范围像现在这样广泛，且通胀已表现出黏性时，10%的概率看起来过低。\n他认为，在风险调整后的基础上，TIPS仍然是对抗通胀上升的最佳资产之一。\n此前，已有多家金融机构警告，特朗普上台可能改变美联储的未来利率政策路径。\n根据美银美林最新发布的研究报告，如果特朗普上台并进行财政扩张，那么美联储可能会上调中性利率预期。此外，如果新总统大幅加征关税，美联储可能会出于对通胀和经济增长影响的考虑而暂停降息。摩根大通此前也警告，如果特朗普周三胜出，美联储可能最早在12月暂停宽松周期，该行预计11月将降息25基点。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}