Palantir: Time To Get Out Again (Rating Downgrade)

22
4
Favorite

Palantir: Time To Get Out Again (Rating Downgrade)

seekingalpha2023-09-24

The recent downward momentum in Palantir's stock price may be just the beginning. There are some important reasons for this, which I explain in this article. Read on.The bar for future business growth...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Report

Comment（4）

JediGingerNinja
·2023-09-24
You don't need all these charts! The fact Auntie cathie has sold tesla shares for palantir shares is all you need to know to sell palantir shares and buy tesla. Enough said
Reply
5
Report
arminasher
·2023-09-24
This article is a bull trap
Reply
7
Report
Sunshinekim
·2023-09-24
Here we go again!
Reply
5
Report
Chrissimo
·2023-09-24
Warren Buffett once said that it's wise for investors “to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”That is why Ark Investment just bought more than 250,000 Palantir shares a couple of days ago.
Reply
6
Report

Most Discussed

7x24

All

Terms and Conditions·Privacy Policy

Company: TTMF Limited. Tech supported by Xiangshang Yixin.

Email：uservice@ttm.financial

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2369411315?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2023-09-24 12:49","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","id":"2369411315","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Palantir: Time To Get Out Again (Rating Downgrade)","media":"seekingalpha","content":"<div>\nThe recent downward momentum in Palantir's stock price may be just the beginning. There are some important reasons for this, which I explain in this article. Read on.The bar for future business growth...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4636804-palantir-time-to-get-out-again-rating-downgrade\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Time To Get Out Again (Rating Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Time To Get Out Again (Rating Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-24 12:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4636804-palantir-time-to-get-out-again-rating-downgrade>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nThe recent downward momentum in Palantir's stock price may be just the beginning. There are some important reasons for this, which I explain in this article. Read on.The bar for future business growth...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4636804-palantir-time-to-get-out-again-rating-downgrade\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":null,"symbol_name":null,"start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4636804-palantir-time-to-get-out-again-rating-downgrade","article_id":"2369411315","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2369411315","pubTimestamp":1695530956,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The recent downward momentum in Palantir's stock price may be just the beginning. There are some important reasons for this, which I explain in this article. Read on.The bar for future business growth","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{},"translate_title":"帕兰蒂尔：是时候再次退出了（评级下调）","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":1},"content_text":"The recent downward momentum in Palantir's stock price may be just the beginning. There are some important reasons for this, which I explain in this article. Read on.The bar for future business growth, which was priced in right after PLTR's Q1 results, started to disappoint.I believe PLTR stock growth is going to be heavily weighed down for at least the next few months as its multiple expansion cools off.Technical picture: the market structure has changed from bullish to bearish over the past few days.I'm downgrading PLTR stock to \"Sell\" again and expect a sobering correction in the coming weeks.Back To Sell RatingIf you follow me, you probably know that I write about Palantir Technologies Inc. quite often here on Seeking Alpha. It all started in October 2021 - that's when my first \"Sell\" rated article on PLTR stock was published, causing a lot of excitement among bulls (some even wrote to me in private messages to try to change my mind about the firm). This was not surprising, as PLTR stock was growing rapidly at the time for various reasons (most notably, overly loose U.S. monetary policy in all its post-Covid manifestations), as was the entire risky asset market.Moving forward, I remained bearish until February 2023, when the stock fell to $8.33 - at which time I wrote that Palantir's Q4 2022 results might exceed market expectations for revenue growth, so the stock price could improve for a while. I must admit that I did not expect all the hype around AI that started a few weeks after that article and that we could eventually see until today.After the company's report for the first quarter of fiscal 2023, sentiment shifted dramatically: On the back of stronger-than-expected earnings per share, revenue, and guidance numbers, PLTR's share price surged to over $20.2/sh in a matter of weeks. After watching this strong share price performance from the sidelines and realizing that the company's valuation was getting crazier (in a bad way), I updated my Sell thesis in early June 2023, citing likely future growth pains, inflated multiples, and overly optimistic estimates from Wall Street analysts.My last article was neutral: I updated the predictive model for PLTR's Q2 results. The model I developed, which had not disappointed me before, concluded that PLTR would most likely again beat revenue (and likely EPS, too) consensus figures for the quarter, as the momentum of its peers gave a clear signal of such a result. But as it turned out in practice, Palantir could not do this: its results were in line with the consensus regarding EPS, missing the topline consensus for the first time in the last 12 quarters:Seeking Alpha Premium, PLTRTherefore, my recently updated Sell thesis turned out to be in the black:Seeking Alpha, author's coverage of PLTRThis long introduction to the history of my Palantir stock coverage follows one of the reasons why I again rate PLTR as \"Sell\": the bar for future business growth, which was priced in right after the Q1 results, started to disappoint.But at the very beginning, we need to understand against what background the PLTR correction takes place because this is very important.As Richard Excell from Stay Vigilant writes in his recent newsletter, we often forget that risky assets have their duration, which is usually the longest compared to the duration of fixed-income securities. Now that inflation is declining, we are entering a phase where, in theory, we should have a negative correlation in P/E multiples if interest rates remain stably high.Cornerstone data, shared by Richard ExcellAnd, if the pause in the current hawkish Fed policy continues, we are going to be in such a phase for about 5-6 months on average.ING via The Daily Shot [shared by Tilo Marotz on LinkedIn]In other words, persistently high-interest rates hurt the P/E ratios of high-growth companies like PLTR. Now guess for yourself: What was one of the main reasons for PLTR's stock growth year-to-date? You can see the answer below:Data by YChartsAs you may know, asset allocation is more important than stock picking, and from an asset allocation perspective, PLTR stock growth is going to be heavily weighed down for at least the next few months as its multiple expansions cool off.Now let's get back to earnings estimates. Not only are PLTR's multiples threatened, but I think EPS and revenue revisions should be revised down after the actual Q2 numbers disappointed the market.Seeking Alpha Premium, author's notesSeeking Alpha Premium, author's notesThis is not yet the case: Wall Street analysts stubbornly continue to boost EPS numbers, but at the same time, the increase in sales growth looks pretty mixed.Seeking Alpha PremiumI would guess that analysts expect gradual low double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion as the company matures. That's absolutely normal, but given the speed at which analysts are pricing in this \"maturity,\" I wouldn't be surprised to see more negative surprises in revenue and EPS. Judging by the numerous reviews I could find on the web, Palantir's offering is quite expensive (I'm talking specifically about the commercial offerings). Yes, they do a good job at the tasks that are asked of them, but in general, those tasks can be solved by other, cheaper applications.If the cost of debt goes up, businesses may not see the difference in choosing other, cheaper companies. Then labor costs, which are quite expensive for PLTR and which it has successfully passed on to end customers through the high prices, may play a cruel trick on the company.Seeking Alpha's Quant System rates Palantir's profitability as \"B+,\" which means it's not that bad. But if you look at the individual metrics, you'll find that aside from positive cash flow from operations, 82% of which comes from stock-based compensation adjustment [data from the 10-Q filing], PLTR has little to boast about.Seeking Alpha Premium, PLTR's ProfitabilityMeanwhile, business growth is actively slowing, and the new AI dawn is already fully reflected in the share price, in my opinion, judging by the key multiples.Seeking Alpha Premium, author's notesMoreover, we must not forget the technical picture. I am not an expert in this field, but even with the naked eye I see a very familiar formation: the market structure has changed from bullish to bearish, as far as I can tell from the chart below:TrendSpider Software, author's notesAlex Karp, the CEO, continues to sell (even more than before), the diluted number of shares is growing quarterly by 9-10% (in the last 3 quarters) and the general consensus in the market is bullish. What could possibly go wrong, right?Seeking Alpha dataThe Bottom LineThere are many reasons to doubt my thesis on Palantir. First, of course, the AI theme can give a big boost to the company's profits over the next few years. Most likely, it will - analysts have already very generously given the company high growth rates through FY2030. But it is also possible that their forecasts will prove to be underestimated, despite the current value, which seems to me to be unjustifiably overestimated. Only time will tell. Second, the market conditions I assume at the very beginning of this article also have a chance to work against me. The fact is that P/E ratios can ultimately remain high even at high-interest rates - it’s all about economic growth, which has to remain solid for this positive scenario for risky assets to come true. But something tells me that economic growth has its risks as well.Morgan Stanley [September 19, 2023], author's notesIn any case, I don't yet see a positive scenario for PLTR stock price, even if the company itself continues to grow and improve its margins. Unfortunately for shareholders, this growth already seems to be weighing on the share price, making it too sensitive to the slightest downsides. Therefore, I'm downgrading PLTR stock to \"Sell\" again and expect a sobering correction in the coming weeks.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":223368408916080,"gmtCreate":1695544848045,"gmtModify":1695544853626,"author":{"id":"4126558027897282","authorId":"4126558027897282","name":"JediGingerNinja","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9fec3f291b238bacf1a948fd098d3042","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4126558027897282","idStr":"4126558027897282"},"htmlText":"You don't need all these charts! The fact Auntie cathie has sold tesla shares for palantir shares is all you need to know to sell palantir shares and buy tesla. Enough said","listText":"You don't need all these charts! The fact Auntie cathie has sold tesla shares for palantir shares is all you need to know to sell palantir shares and buy tesla. Enough said","text":"You don't need all these charts! The fact Auntie cathie has sold tesla shares for palantir shares is all you need to know to sell palantir shares and buy tesla. Enough said","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/223368408916080","repostId":2369411315,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2369411315","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1695530956,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2369411315?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-09-24 12:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Time To Get Out Again (Rating Downgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2369411315","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The recent downward momentum in Palantir's stock price may be just the beginning. There are some important reasons for this, which I explain in this article. Read on.The bar for future business growth","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li>The recent downward momentum in Palantir&#39;s stock price may be just the beginning. There are some important reasons for this, which I explain in this article. Read on.</li><li>The bar for future business growth, which was priced in right after PLTR&#39;s Q1 results, started to disappoint.</li><li>I believe PLTR stock growth is going to be heavily weighed down for at least the next few months as its multiple expansion cools off.</li><li>Technical picture: the market structure has changed from bullish to bearish over the past few days.</li><li>I&#39;m downgrading PLTR stock to &#34;Sell&#34; again and expect a sobering correction in the coming weeks.</li></ul><h2 id=\"id_3988572946\">Back To Sell Rating</h2>If you follow me, you probably know that I write about <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> quite often here on Seeking Alpha. It all started in October 2021 - that&#39;s when my first &#34;Sell&#34; rated article on PLTR stock was published, causing a lot of excitement among bulls (some even wrote to me in private messages to try to change my mind about the firm). This was not surprising, as PLTR stock was growing rapidly at the time for various reasons (most notably, overly loose U.S. monetary policy in all its post-Covid manifestations), as was the entire risky asset market.Moving forward, I remained bearish until February 2023, when the stock fell to $8.33 - at which time I wrote that Palantir&#39;s Q4 2022 results might exceed market expectations for revenue growth, so the stock price could improve for a while. I must admit that I did not expect all the hype around AI that started a few weeks after that article and that we could eventually see until today.After the company&#39;s report for the first quarter of fiscal 2023, sentiment shifted dramatically: On the back of stronger-than-expected earnings per share, revenue, and guidance numbers, PLTR&#39;s share price surged to over $20.2/sh in a matter of weeks. After watching this strong share price performance from the sidelines and realizing that the company&#39;s valuation was getting crazier (in a bad way), I updated my Sell thesis in early June 2023, citing likely future growth pains, inflated multiples, and overly optimistic estimates from Wall Street analysts.My last article was neutral: I updated the predictive model for PLTR&#39;s Q2 results. The model I developed, which had not disappointed me before, concluded that PLTR would most likely again beat revenue (and likely EPS, too) consensus figures for the quarter, as the momentum of its peers gave a clear signal of such a result. But as it turned out in practice, Palantir could not do this: its results were in line with the consensus regarding EPS, missing the topline consensus for the first time in the last 12 quarters:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2b44df0d7b2a1ce5a8b020aee60d95\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"256\"/>Seeking Alpha Premium, PLTRTherefore, my recently updated Sell thesis turned out to be in the black:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/675acd76bd66c27a71e3f77bbc4ad9f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\"/>Seeking Alpha, author&#39;s coverage of PLTRThis long introduction to the history of my Palantir stock coverage follows one of the reasons why I again rate PLTR as &#34;Sell&#34;: the bar for future business growth, which was priced in right after the Q1 results, started to disappoint.But at the very beginning, we need to understand against what background the PLTR correction takes place because this is very important.As Richard Excell from Stay Vigilant writes in his recent newsletter, we often forget that risky assets have their duration, which is usually the longest compared to the duration of fixed-income securities. Now that inflation is declining, we are entering a phase where, in theory, we should have a negative correlation in P/E multiples if interest rates remain stably high.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06e85632b5039697b955e767e7130af3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\"/>Cornerstone data, shared by Richard ExcellAnd, if the pause in the current hawkish Fed policy continues, we are going to be in such a phase for about 5-6 months on average.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e4b075b08809686fc9a773670363176\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"488\"/>ING via The Daily Shot [shared by Tilo Marotz on LinkedIn]In other words, persistently high-interest rates hurt the P/E ratios of high-growth companies like PLTR. Now guess for yourself: What was one of the main reasons for PLTR&#39;s stock growth year-to-date? You can see the answer below:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7ba4884f02bb33ab96194c166fd1a54\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"/>Data by YChartsAs you may know, asset allocation is more important than stock picking, and from an asset allocation perspective, PLTR stock growth is going to be heavily weighed down for at least the next few months as its multiple expansions cool off.Now let&#39;s get back to earnings estimates. Not only are PLTR&#39;s multiples threatened, but I think EPS and revenue revisions should be revised down after the actual Q2 numbers disappointed the market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f42e2e517de3f2bf6ee55d2b80f56297\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"/>Seeking Alpha Premium, author&#39;s notes<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/574860c44e9756b6034b171ec0d7c6a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"201\"/>Seeking Alpha Premium, author&#39;s notesThis is not yet the case: Wall Street analysts stubbornly continue to boost EPS numbers, but at the same time, the increase in sales growth looks pretty mixed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac60876b9bc18ba6f53fbd041d0e2f52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"175\"/>Seeking Alpha Premium<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/049f70c7cf2e6c3ef6fe069bc1646408\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"175\"/>I would guess that analysts expect gradual low double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion as the company matures. That&#39;s absolutely normal, but given the speed at which analysts are pricing in this &#34;maturity,&#34; I wouldn&#39;t be surprised to see more negative surprises in revenue and EPS. Judging by the numerous reviews I could find on the web, Palantir&#39;s offering is quite expensive (I&#39;m talking specifically about the commercial offerings). Yes, they do a good job at the tasks that are asked of them, but in general, those tasks can be solved by other, cheaper applications.If the cost of debt goes up, businesses may not see the difference in choosing other, cheaper companies. Then labor costs, which are quite expensive for PLTR and which it has successfully passed on to end customers through the high prices, may play a cruel trick on the company.Seeking Alpha&#39;s Quant System rates Palantir&#39;s profitability as &#34;B+,&#34; which means it&#39;s not that bad. But if you look at the individual metrics, you&#39;ll find that aside from positive cash flow from operations, 82% of which comes from stock-based compensation adjustment [data from the 10-Q filing], PLTR has little to boast about.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c66acb441aa3120f1e6cad1960cff9b2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\"/>Seeking Alpha Premium, PLTR&#39;s ProfitabilityMeanwhile, business growth is actively slowing, and the new AI dawn is already fully reflected in the share price, in my opinion, judging by the key multiples.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d66f7fd9d5478e75666ab70bbc6af4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"451\"/>Seeking Alpha Premium, author&#39;s notesMoreover, we must not forget the technical picture. I am not an expert in this field, but even with the naked eye I see a very familiar formation: the market structure has changed from bullish to bearish, as far as I can tell from the chart below:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c09941161db31bfa7ed060a5813d776\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"/>TrendSpider Software, author&#39;s notesAlex Karp, the CEO, continues to sell (even more than before), the diluted number of shares is growing quarterly by 9-10% (in the last 3 quarters) and the general consensus in the market is bullish. What could possibly go wrong, right?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd461f9a80605607cfea7635da8ce38e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\"/>Seeking Alpha data<h2 id=\"id_4126657069\">The Bottom Line</h2>There are many reasons to doubt my thesis on Palantir. First, of course, the AI theme can give a big boost to the company&#39;s profits over the next few years. Most likely, it will - analysts have already very generously given the company high growth rates through FY2030. But it is also possible that their forecasts will prove to be underestimated, despite the current value, which seems to me to be unjustifiably overestimated. Only time will tell. Second, the market conditions I assume at the very beginning of this article also have a chance to work against me. The fact is that P/E ratios can ultimately remain high even at high-interest rates - it’s all about economic growth, which has to remain solid for this positive scenario for risky assets to come true. But something tells me that economic growth has its risks as well.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6eaf93c1c96e45958479d4006f4f985d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"486\"/>Morgan Stanley [September 19, 2023], author&#39;s notesIn any case, I don&#39;t yet see a positive scenario for PLTR stock price, even if the company itself continues to grow and improve its margins. Unfortunately for shareholders, this growth already seems to be weighing on the share price, making it too sensitive to the slightest downsides. Therefore, I&#39;m downgrading PLTR stock to &#34;Sell&#34; again and expect a sobering correction in the coming weeks.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Time To Get Out Again (Rating Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Time To Get Out Again (Rating Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-24 12:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4636804-palantir-time-to-get-out-again-rating-downgrade>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nThe recent downward momentum in Palantir's stock price may be just the beginning. There are some important reasons for this, which I explain in this article. Read on.The bar for future business growth...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4636804-palantir-time-to-get-out-again-rating-downgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4636804-palantir-time-to-get-out-again-rating-downgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2369411315","content_text":"The recent downward momentum in Palantir's stock price may be just the beginning. There are some important reasons for this, which I explain in this article. Read on.The bar for future business growth, which was priced in right after PLTR's Q1 results, started to disappoint.I believe PLTR stock growth is going to be heavily weighed down for at least the next few months as its multiple expansion cools off.Technical picture: the market structure has changed from bullish to bearish over the past few days.I'm downgrading PLTR stock to \"Sell\" again and expect a sobering correction in the coming weeks.Back To Sell RatingIf you follow me, you probably know that I write about Palantir Technologies Inc. quite often here on Seeking Alpha. It all started in October 2021 - that's when my first \"Sell\" rated article on PLTR stock was published, causing a lot of excitement among bulls (some even wrote to me in private messages to try to change my mind about the firm). This was not surprising, as PLTR stock was growing rapidly at the time for various reasons (most notably, overly loose U.S. monetary policy in all its post-Covid manifestations), as was the entire risky asset market.Moving forward, I remained bearish until February 2023, when the stock fell to $8.33 - at which time I wrote that Palantir's Q4 2022 results might exceed market expectations for revenue growth, so the stock price could improve for a while. I must admit that I did not expect all the hype around AI that started a few weeks after that article and that we could eventually see until today.After the company's report for the first quarter of fiscal 2023, sentiment shifted dramatically: On the back of stronger-than-expected earnings per share, revenue, and guidance numbers, PLTR's share price surged to over $20.2/sh in a matter of weeks. After watching this strong share price performance from the sidelines and realizing that the company's valuation was getting crazier (in a bad way), I updated my Sell thesis in early June 2023, citing likely future growth pains, inflated multiples, and overly optimistic estimates from Wall Street analysts.My last article was neutral: I updated the predictive model for PLTR's Q2 results. The model I developed, which had not disappointed me before, concluded that PLTR would most likely again beat revenue (and likely EPS, too) consensus figures for the quarter, as the momentum of its peers gave a clear signal of such a result. But as it turned out in practice, Palantir could not do this: its results were in line with the consensus regarding EPS, missing the topline consensus for the first time in the last 12 quarters:Seeking Alpha Premium, PLTRTherefore, my recently updated Sell thesis turned out to be in the black:Seeking Alpha, author's coverage of PLTRThis long introduction to the history of my Palantir stock coverage follows one of the reasons why I again rate PLTR as \"Sell\": the bar for future business growth, which was priced in right after the Q1 results, started to disappoint.But at the very beginning, we need to understand against what background the PLTR correction takes place because this is very important.As Richard Excell from Stay Vigilant writes in his recent newsletter, we often forget that risky assets have their duration, which is usually the longest compared to the duration of fixed-income securities. Now that inflation is declining, we are entering a phase where, in theory, we should have a negative correlation in P/E multiples if interest rates remain stably high.Cornerstone data, shared by Richard ExcellAnd, if the pause in the current hawkish Fed policy continues, we are going to be in such a phase for about 5-6 months on average.ING via The Daily Shot [shared by Tilo Marotz on LinkedIn]In other words, persistently high-interest rates hurt the P/E ratios of high-growth companies like PLTR. Now guess for yourself: What was one of the main reasons for PLTR's stock growth year-to-date? You can see the answer below:Data by YChartsAs you may know, asset allocation is more important than stock picking, and from an asset allocation perspective, PLTR stock growth is going to be heavily weighed down for at least the next few months as its multiple expansions cool off.Now let's get back to earnings estimates. Not only are PLTR's multiples threatened, but I think EPS and revenue revisions should be revised down after the actual Q2 numbers disappointed the market.Seeking Alpha Premium, author's notesSeeking Alpha Premium, author's notesThis is not yet the case: Wall Street analysts stubbornly continue to boost EPS numbers, but at the same time, the increase in sales growth looks pretty mixed.Seeking Alpha PremiumI would guess that analysts expect gradual low double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion as the company matures. That's absolutely normal, but given the speed at which analysts are pricing in this \"maturity,\" I wouldn't be surprised to see more negative surprises in revenue and EPS. Judging by the numerous reviews I could find on the web, Palantir's offering is quite expensive (I'm talking specifically about the commercial offerings). Yes, they do a good job at the tasks that are asked of them, but in general, those tasks can be solved by other, cheaper applications.If the cost of debt goes up, businesses may not see the difference in choosing other, cheaper companies. Then labor costs, which are quite expensive for PLTR and which it has successfully passed on to end customers through the high prices, may play a cruel trick on the company.Seeking Alpha's Quant System rates Palantir's profitability as \"B+,\" which means it's not that bad. But if you look at the individual metrics, you'll find that aside from positive cash flow from operations, 82% of which comes from stock-based compensation adjustment [data from the 10-Q filing], PLTR has little to boast about.Seeking Alpha Premium, PLTR's ProfitabilityMeanwhile, business growth is actively slowing, and the new AI dawn is already fully reflected in the share price, in my opinion, judging by the key multiples.Seeking Alpha Premium, author's notesMoreover, we must not forget the technical picture. I am not an expert in this field, but even with the naked eye I see a very familiar formation: the market structure has changed from bullish to bearish, as far as I can tell from the chart below:TrendSpider Software, author's notesAlex Karp, the CEO, continues to sell (even more than before), the diluted number of shares is growing quarterly by 9-10% (in the last 3 quarters) and the general consensus in the market is bullish. What could possibly go wrong, right?Seeking Alpha dataThe Bottom LineThere are many reasons to doubt my thesis on Palantir. First, of course, the AI theme can give a big boost to the company's profits over the next few years. Most likely, it will - analysts have already very generously given the company high growth rates through FY2030. But it is also possible that their forecasts will prove to be underestimated, despite the current value, which seems to me to be unjustifiably overestimated. Only time will tell. Second, the market conditions I assume at the very beginning of this article also have a chance to work against me. The fact is that P/E ratios can ultimately remain high even at high-interest rates - it’s all about economic growth, which has to remain solid for this positive scenario for risky assets to come true. But something tells me that economic growth has its risks as well.Morgan Stanley [September 19, 2023], author's notesIn any case, I don't yet see a positive scenario for PLTR stock price, even if the company itself continues to grow and improve its margins. Unfortunately for shareholders, this growth already seems to be weighing on the share price, making it too sensitive to the slightest downsides. Therefore, I'm downgrading PLTR stock to \"Sell\" again and expect a sobering correction in the coming weeks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":223282221518880,"gmtCreate":1695539655413,"gmtModify":1695541883162,"author":{"id":"4155351528968802","authorId":"4155351528968802","name":"arminasher","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/59032c5cb960f9e555525ed6532089a7","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4155351528968802","idStr":"4155351528968802"},"htmlText":"This article is a bull trap","listText":"This article is a bull trap","text":"This article is a bull trap","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/223282221518880","repostId":2369411315,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2369411315","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1695530956,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2369411315?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-09-24 12:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Time To Get Out Again (Rating Downgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2369411315","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The recent downward momentum in Palantir's stock price may be just the beginning. There are some important reasons for this, which I explain in this article. Read on.The bar for future business growth","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li>The recent downward momentum in Palantir&#39;s stock price may be just the beginning. There are some important reasons for this, which I explain in this article. Read on.</li><li>The bar for future business growth, which was priced in right after PLTR&#39;s Q1 results, started to disappoint.</li><li>I believe PLTR stock growth is going to be heavily weighed down for at least the next few months as its multiple expansion cools off.</li><li>Technical picture: the market structure has changed from bullish to bearish over the past few days.</li><li>I&#39;m downgrading PLTR stock to &#34;Sell&#34; again and expect a sobering correction in the coming weeks.</li></ul><h2 id=\"id_3988572946\">Back To Sell Rating</h2>If you follow me, you probably know that I write about <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> quite often here on Seeking Alpha. It all started in October 2021 - that&#39;s when my first &#34;Sell&#34; rated article on PLTR stock was published, causing a lot of excitement among bulls (some even wrote to me in private messages to try to change my mind about the firm). This was not surprising, as PLTR stock was growing rapidly at the time for various reasons (most notably, overly loose U.S. monetary policy in all its post-Covid manifestations), as was the entire risky asset market.Moving forward, I remained bearish until February 2023, when the stock fell to $8.33 - at which time I wrote that Palantir&#39;s Q4 2022 results might exceed market expectations for revenue growth, so the stock price could improve for a while. I must admit that I did not expect all the hype around AI that started a few weeks after that article and that we could eventually see until today.After the company&#39;s report for the first quarter of fiscal 2023, sentiment shifted dramatically: On the back of stronger-than-expected earnings per share, revenue, and guidance numbers, PLTR&#39;s share price surged to over $20.2/sh in a matter of weeks. After watching this strong share price performance from the sidelines and realizing that the company&#39;s valuation was getting crazier (in a bad way), I updated my Sell thesis in early June 2023, citing likely future growth pains, inflated multiples, and overly optimistic estimates from Wall Street analysts.My last article was neutral: I updated the predictive model for PLTR&#39;s Q2 results. The model I developed, which had not disappointed me before, concluded that PLTR would most likely again beat revenue (and likely EPS, too) consensus figures for the quarter, as the momentum of its peers gave a clear signal of such a result. But as it turned out in practice, Palantir could not do this: its results were in line with the consensus regarding EPS, missing the topline consensus for the first time in the last 12 quarters:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2b44df0d7b2a1ce5a8b020aee60d95\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"256\"/>Seeking Alpha Premium, PLTRTherefore, my recently updated Sell thesis turned out to be in the black:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/675acd76bd66c27a71e3f77bbc4ad9f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\"/>Seeking Alpha, author&#39;s coverage of PLTRThis long introduction to the history of my Palantir stock coverage follows one of the reasons why I again rate PLTR as &#34;Sell&#34;: the bar for future business growth, which was priced in right after the Q1 results, started to disappoint.But at the very beginning, we need to understand against what background the PLTR correction takes place because this is very important.As Richard Excell from Stay Vigilant writes in his recent newsletter, we often forget that risky assets have their duration, which is usually the longest compared to the duration of fixed-income securities. Now that inflation is declining, we are entering a phase where, in theory, we should have a negative correlation in P/E multiples if interest rates remain stably high.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06e85632b5039697b955e767e7130af3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\"/>Cornerstone data, shared by Richard ExcellAnd, if the pause in the current hawkish Fed policy continues, we are going to be in such a phase for about 5-6 months on average.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e4b075b08809686fc9a773670363176\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"488\"/>ING via The Daily Shot [shared by Tilo Marotz on LinkedIn]In other words, persistently high-interest rates hurt the P/E ratios of high-growth companies like PLTR. Now guess for yourself: What was one of the main reasons for PLTR&#39;s stock growth year-to-date? You can see the answer below:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7ba4884f02bb33ab96194c166fd1a54\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"/>Data by YChartsAs you may know, asset allocation is more important than stock picking, and from an asset allocation perspective, PLTR stock growth is going to be heavily weighed down for at least the next few months as its multiple expansions cool off.Now let&#39;s get back to earnings estimates. Not only are PLTR&#39;s multiples threatened, but I think EPS and revenue revisions should be revised down after the actual Q2 numbers disappointed the market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f42e2e517de3f2bf6ee55d2b80f56297\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"/>Seeking Alpha Premium, author&#39;s notes<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/574860c44e9756b6034b171ec0d7c6a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"201\"/>Seeking Alpha Premium, author&#39;s notesThis is not yet the case: Wall Street analysts stubbornly continue to boost EPS numbers, but at the same time, the increase in sales growth looks pretty mixed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac60876b9bc18ba6f53fbd041d0e2f52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"175\"/>Seeking Alpha Premium<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/049f70c7cf2e6c3ef6fe069bc1646408\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"175\"/>I would guess that analysts expect gradual low double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion as the company matures. That&#39;s absolutely normal, but given the speed at which analysts are pricing in this &#34;maturity,&#34; I wouldn&#39;t be surprised to see more negative surprises in revenue and EPS. Judging by the numerous reviews I could find on the web, Palantir&#39;s offering is quite expensive (I&#39;m talking specifically about the commercial offerings). Yes, they do a good job at the tasks that are asked of them, but in general, those tasks can be solved by other, cheaper applications.If the cost of debt goes up, businesses may not see the difference in choosing other, cheaper companies. Then labor costs, which are quite expensive for PLTR and which it has successfully passed on to end customers through the high prices, may play a cruel trick on the company.Seeking Alpha&#39;s Quant System rates Palantir&#39;s profitability as &#34;B+,&#34; which means it&#39;s not that bad. But if you look at the individual metrics, you&#39;ll find that aside from positive cash flow from operations, 82% of which comes from stock-based compensation adjustment [data from the 10-Q filing], PLTR has little to boast about.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c66acb441aa3120f1e6cad1960cff9b2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\"/>Seeking Alpha Premium, PLTR&#39;s ProfitabilityMeanwhile, business growth is actively slowing, and the new AI dawn is already fully reflected in the share price, in my opinion, judging by the key multiples.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d66f7fd9d5478e75666ab70bbc6af4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"451\"/>Seeking Alpha Premium, author&#39;s notesMoreover, we must not forget the technical picture. I am not an expert in this field, but even with the naked eye I see a very familiar formation: the market structure has changed from bullish to bearish, as far as I can tell from the chart below:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c09941161db31bfa7ed060a5813d776\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"/>TrendSpider Software, author&#39;s notesAlex Karp, the CEO, continues to sell (even more than before), the diluted number of shares is growing quarterly by 9-10% (in the last 3 quarters) and the general consensus in the market is bullish. What could possibly go wrong, right?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd461f9a80605607cfea7635da8ce38e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\"/>Seeking Alpha data<h2 id=\"id_4126657069\">The Bottom Line</h2>There are many reasons to doubt my thesis on Palantir. First, of course, the AI theme can give a big boost to the company&#39;s profits over the next few years. Most likely, it will - analysts have already very generously given the company high growth rates through FY2030. But it is also possible that their forecasts will prove to be underestimated, despite the current value, which seems to me to be unjustifiably overestimated. Only time will tell. Second, the market conditions I assume at the very beginning of this article also have a chance to work against me. The fact is that P/E ratios can ultimately remain high even at high-interest rates - it’s all about economic growth, which has to remain solid for this positive scenario for risky assets to come true. But something tells me that economic growth has its risks as well.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6eaf93c1c96e45958479d4006f4f985d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"486\"/>Morgan Stanley [September 19, 2023], author&#39;s notesIn any case, I don&#39;t yet see a positive scenario for PLTR stock price, even if the company itself continues to grow and improve its margins. Unfortunately for shareholders, this growth already seems to be weighing on the share price, making it too sensitive to the slightest downsides. Therefore, I&#39;m downgrading PLTR stock to &#34;Sell&#34; again and expect a sobering correction in the coming weeks.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Time To Get Out Again (Rating Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Time To Get Out Again (Rating Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-24 12:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4636804-palantir-time-to-get-out-again-rating-downgrade>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nThe recent downward momentum in Palantir's stock price may be just the beginning. There are some important reasons for this, which I explain in this article. Read on.The bar for future business growth...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4636804-palantir-time-to-get-out-again-rating-downgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4636804-palantir-time-to-get-out-again-rating-downgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2369411315","content_text":"The recent downward momentum in Palantir's stock price may be just the beginning. There are some important reasons for this, which I explain in this article. Read on.The bar for future business growth, which was priced in right after PLTR's Q1 results, started to disappoint.I believe PLTR stock growth is going to be heavily weighed down for at least the next few months as its multiple expansion cools off.Technical picture: the market structure has changed from bullish to bearish over the past few days.I'm downgrading PLTR stock to \"Sell\" again and expect a sobering correction in the coming weeks.Back To Sell RatingIf you follow me, you probably know that I write about Palantir Technologies Inc. quite often here on Seeking Alpha. It all started in October 2021 - that's when my first \"Sell\" rated article on PLTR stock was published, causing a lot of excitement among bulls (some even wrote to me in private messages to try to change my mind about the firm). This was not surprising, as PLTR stock was growing rapidly at the time for various reasons (most notably, overly loose U.S. monetary policy in all its post-Covid manifestations), as was the entire risky asset market.Moving forward, I remained bearish until February 2023, when the stock fell to $8.33 - at which time I wrote that Palantir's Q4 2022 results might exceed market expectations for revenue growth, so the stock price could improve for a while. I must admit that I did not expect all the hype around AI that started a few weeks after that article and that we could eventually see until today.After the company's report for the first quarter of fiscal 2023, sentiment shifted dramatically: On the back of stronger-than-expected earnings per share, revenue, and guidance numbers, PLTR's share price surged to over $20.2/sh in a matter of weeks. After watching this strong share price performance from the sidelines and realizing that the company's valuation was getting crazier (in a bad way), I updated my Sell thesis in early June 2023, citing likely future growth pains, inflated multiples, and overly optimistic estimates from Wall Street analysts.My last article was neutral: I updated the predictive model for PLTR's Q2 results. The model I developed, which had not disappointed me before, concluded that PLTR would most likely again beat revenue (and likely EPS, too) consensus figures for the quarter, as the momentum of its peers gave a clear signal of such a result. But as it turned out in practice, Palantir could not do this: its results were in line with the consensus regarding EPS, missing the topline consensus for the first time in the last 12 quarters:Seeking Alpha Premium, PLTRTherefore, my recently updated Sell thesis turned out to be in the black:Seeking Alpha, author's coverage of PLTRThis long introduction to the history of my Palantir stock coverage follows one of the reasons why I again rate PLTR as \"Sell\": the bar for future business growth, which was priced in right after the Q1 results, started to disappoint.But at the very beginning, we need to understand against what background the PLTR correction takes place because this is very important.As Richard Excell from Stay Vigilant writes in his recent newsletter, we often forget that risky assets have their duration, which is usually the longest compared to the duration of fixed-income securities. Now that inflation is declining, we are entering a phase where, in theory, we should have a negative correlation in P/E multiples if interest rates remain stably high.Cornerstone data, shared by Richard ExcellAnd, if the pause in the current hawkish Fed policy continues, we are going to be in such a phase for about 5-6 months on average.ING via The Daily Shot [shared by Tilo Marotz on LinkedIn]In other words, persistently high-interest rates hurt the P/E ratios of high-growth companies like PLTR. Now guess for yourself: What was one of the main reasons for PLTR's stock growth year-to-date? You can see the answer below:Data by YChartsAs you may know, asset allocation is more important than stock picking, and from an asset allocation perspective, PLTR stock growth is going to be heavily weighed down for at least the next few months as its multiple expansions cool off.Now let's get back to earnings estimates. Not only are PLTR's multiples threatened, but I think EPS and revenue revisions should be revised down after the actual Q2 numbers disappointed the market.Seeking Alpha Premium, author's notesSeeking Alpha Premium, author's notesThis is not yet the case: Wall Street analysts stubbornly continue to boost EPS numbers, but at the same time, the increase in sales growth looks pretty mixed.Seeking Alpha PremiumI would guess that analysts expect gradual low double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion as the company matures. That's absolutely normal, but given the speed at which analysts are pricing in this \"maturity,\" I wouldn't be surprised to see more negative surprises in revenue and EPS. Judging by the numerous reviews I could find on the web, Palantir's offering is quite expensive (I'm talking specifically about the commercial offerings). Yes, they do a good job at the tasks that are asked of them, but in general, those tasks can be solved by other, cheaper applications.If the cost of debt goes up, businesses may not see the difference in choosing other, cheaper companies. Then labor costs, which are quite expensive for PLTR and which it has successfully passed on to end customers through the high prices, may play a cruel trick on the company.Seeking Alpha's Quant System rates Palantir's profitability as \"B+,\" which means it's not that bad. But if you look at the individual metrics, you'll find that aside from positive cash flow from operations, 82% of which comes from stock-based compensation adjustment [data from the 10-Q filing], PLTR has little to boast about.Seeking Alpha Premium, PLTR's ProfitabilityMeanwhile, business growth is actively slowing, and the new AI dawn is already fully reflected in the share price, in my opinion, judging by the key multiples.Seeking Alpha Premium, author's notesMoreover, we must not forget the technical picture. I am not an expert in this field, but even with the naked eye I see a very familiar formation: the market structure has changed from bullish to bearish, as far as I can tell from the chart below:TrendSpider Software, author's notesAlex Karp, the CEO, continues to sell (even more than before), the diluted number of shares is growing quarterly by 9-10% (in the last 3 quarters) and the general consensus in the market is bullish. What could possibly go wrong, right?Seeking Alpha dataThe Bottom LineThere are many reasons to doubt my thesis on Palantir. First, of course, the AI theme can give a big boost to the company's profits over the next few years. Most likely, it will - analysts have already very generously given the company high growth rates through FY2030. But it is also possible that their forecasts will prove to be underestimated, despite the current value, which seems to me to be unjustifiably overestimated. Only time will tell. Second, the market conditions I assume at the very beginning of this article also have a chance to work against me. The fact is that P/E ratios can ultimately remain high even at high-interest rates - it’s all about economic growth, which has to remain solid for this positive scenario for risky assets to come true. But something tells me that economic growth has its risks as well.Morgan Stanley [September 19, 2023], author's notesIn any case, I don't yet see a positive scenario for PLTR stock price, even if the company itself continues to grow and improve its margins. Unfortunately for shareholders, this growth already seems to be weighing on the share price, making it too sensitive to the slightest downsides. Therefore, I'm downgrading PLTR stock to \"Sell\" again and expect a sobering correction in the coming weeks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":223321521279104,"gmtCreate":1695534429172,"gmtModify":1695534435177,"author":{"id":"4108879863251380","authorId":"4108879863251380","name":"Sunshinekim","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4aa06f704f2b302b4af731a1567add49","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dee1aa3a3a3c1814833a4d3f8a5669","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4108879863251380","idStr":"4108879863251380"},"htmlText":"Here we go again!&nbsp;","listText":"Here we go again!&nbsp;","text":"Here we go again!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/223321521279104","repostId":2369411315,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2369411315","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1695530956,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2369411315?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-09-24 12:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Time To Get Out Again (Rating Downgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2369411315","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The recent downward momentum in Palantir's stock price may be just the beginning. There are some important reasons for this, which I explain in this article. Read on.The bar for future business growth","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li>The recent downward momentum in Palantir&#39;s stock price may be just the beginning. There are some important reasons for this, which I explain in this article. Read on.</li><li>The bar for future business growth, which was priced in right after PLTR&#39;s Q1 results, started to disappoint.</li><li>I believe PLTR stock growth is going to be heavily weighed down for at least the next few months as its multiple expansion cools off.</li><li>Technical picture: the market structure has changed from bullish to bearish over the past few days.</li><li>I&#39;m downgrading PLTR stock to &#34;Sell&#34; again and expect a sobering correction in the coming weeks.</li></ul><h2 id=\"id_3988572946\">Back To Sell Rating</h2>If you follow me, you probably know that I write about <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> quite often here on Seeking Alpha. It all started in October 2021 - that&#39;s when my first &#34;Sell&#34; rated article on PLTR stock was published, causing a lot of excitement among bulls (some even wrote to me in private messages to try to change my mind about the firm). This was not surprising, as PLTR stock was growing rapidly at the time for various reasons (most notably, overly loose U.S. monetary policy in all its post-Covid manifestations), as was the entire risky asset market.Moving forward, I remained bearish until February 2023, when the stock fell to $8.33 - at which time I wrote that Palantir&#39;s Q4 2022 results might exceed market expectations for revenue growth, so the stock price could improve for a while. I must admit that I did not expect all the hype around AI that started a few weeks after that article and that we could eventually see until today.After the company&#39;s report for the first quarter of fiscal 2023, sentiment shifted dramatically: On the back of stronger-than-expected earnings per share, revenue, and guidance numbers, PLTR&#39;s share price surged to over $20.2/sh in a matter of weeks. After watching this strong share price performance from the sidelines and realizing that the company&#39;s valuation was getting crazier (in a bad way), I updated my Sell thesis in early June 2023, citing likely future growth pains, inflated multiples, and overly optimistic estimates from Wall Street analysts.My last article was neutral: I updated the predictive model for PLTR&#39;s Q2 results. The model I developed, which had not disappointed me before, concluded that PLTR would most likely again beat revenue (and likely EPS, too) consensus figures for the quarter, as the momentum of its peers gave a clear signal of such a result. But as it turned out in practice, Palantir could not do this: its results were in line with the consensus regarding EPS, missing the topline consensus for the first time in the last 12 quarters:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2b44df0d7b2a1ce5a8b020aee60d95\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"256\"/>Seeking Alpha Premium, PLTRTherefore, my recently updated Sell thesis turned out to be in the black:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/675acd76bd66c27a71e3f77bbc4ad9f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\"/>Seeking Alpha, author&#39;s coverage of PLTRThis long introduction to the history of my Palantir stock coverage follows one of the reasons why I again rate PLTR as &#34;Sell&#34;: the bar for future business growth, which was priced in right after the Q1 results, started to disappoint.But at the very beginning, we need to understand against what background the PLTR correction takes place because this is very important.As Richard Excell from Stay Vigilant writes in his recent newsletter, we often forget that risky assets have their duration, which is usually the longest compared to the duration of fixed-income securities. Now that inflation is declining, we are entering a phase where, in theory, we should have a negative correlation in P/E multiples if interest rates remain stably high.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06e85632b5039697b955e767e7130af3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\"/>Cornerstone data, shared by Richard ExcellAnd, if the pause in the current hawkish Fed policy continues, we are going to be in such a phase for about 5-6 months on average.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e4b075b08809686fc9a773670363176\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"488\"/>ING via The Daily Shot [shared by Tilo Marotz on LinkedIn]In other words, persistently high-interest rates hurt the P/E ratios of high-growth companies like PLTR. Now guess for yourself: What was one of the main reasons for PLTR&#39;s stock growth year-to-date? You can see the answer below:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7ba4884f02bb33ab96194c166fd1a54\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"/>Data by YChartsAs you may know, asset allocation is more important than stock picking, and from an asset allocation perspective, PLTR stock growth is going to be heavily weighed down for at least the next few months as its multiple expansions cool off.Now let&#39;s get back to earnings estimates. Not only are PLTR&#39;s multiples threatened, but I think EPS and revenue revisions should be revised down after the actual Q2 numbers disappointed the market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f42e2e517de3f2bf6ee55d2b80f56297\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"/>Seeking Alpha Premium, author&#39;s notes<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/574860c44e9756b6034b171ec0d7c6a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"201\"/>Seeking Alpha Premium, author&#39;s notesThis is not yet the case: Wall Street analysts stubbornly continue to boost EPS numbers, but at the same time, the increase in sales growth looks pretty mixed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac60876b9bc18ba6f53fbd041d0e2f52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"175\"/>Seeking Alpha Premium<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/049f70c7cf2e6c3ef6fe069bc1646408\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"175\"/>I would guess that analysts expect gradual low double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion as the company matures. That&#39;s absolutely normal, but given the speed at which analysts are pricing in this &#34;maturity,&#34; I wouldn&#39;t be surprised to see more negative surprises in revenue and EPS. Judging by the numerous reviews I could find on the web, Palantir&#39;s offering is quite expensive (I&#39;m talking specifically about the commercial offerings). Yes, they do a good job at the tasks that are asked of them, but in general, those tasks can be solved by other, cheaper applications.If the cost of debt goes up, businesses may not see the difference in choosing other, cheaper companies. Then labor costs, which are quite expensive for PLTR and which it has successfully passed on to end customers through the high prices, may play a cruel trick on the company.Seeking Alpha&#39;s Quant System rates Palantir&#39;s profitability as &#34;B+,&#34; which means it&#39;s not that bad. But if you look at the individual metrics, you&#39;ll find that aside from positive cash flow from operations, 82% of which comes from stock-based compensation adjustment [data from the 10-Q filing], PLTR has little to boast about.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c66acb441aa3120f1e6cad1960cff9b2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\"/>Seeking Alpha Premium, PLTR&#39;s ProfitabilityMeanwhile, business growth is actively slowing, and the new AI dawn is already fully reflected in the share price, in my opinion, judging by the key multiples.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d66f7fd9d5478e75666ab70bbc6af4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"451\"/>Seeking Alpha Premium, author&#39;s notesMoreover, we must not forget the technical picture. I am not an expert in this field, but even with the naked eye I see a very familiar formation: the market structure has changed from bullish to bearish, as far as I can tell from the chart below:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c09941161db31bfa7ed060a5813d776\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"/>TrendSpider Software, author&#39;s notesAlex Karp, the CEO, continues to sell (even more than before), the diluted number of shares is growing quarterly by 9-10% (in the last 3 quarters) and the general consensus in the market is bullish. What could possibly go wrong, right?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd461f9a80605607cfea7635da8ce38e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\"/>Seeking Alpha data<h2 id=\"id_4126657069\">The Bottom Line</h2>There are many reasons to doubt my thesis on Palantir. First, of course, the AI theme can give a big boost to the company&#39;s profits over the next few years. Most likely, it will - analysts have already very generously given the company high growth rates through FY2030. But it is also possible that their forecasts will prove to be underestimated, despite the current value, which seems to me to be unjustifiably overestimated. Only time will tell. Second, the market conditions I assume at the very beginning of this article also have a chance to work against me. The fact is that P/E ratios can ultimately remain high even at high-interest rates - it’s all about economic growth, which has to remain solid for this positive scenario for risky assets to come true. But something tells me that economic growth has its risks as well.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6eaf93c1c96e45958479d4006f4f985d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"486\"/>Morgan Stanley [September 19, 2023], author&#39;s notesIn any case, I don&#39;t yet see a positive scenario for PLTR stock price, even if the company itself continues to grow and improve its margins. Unfortunately for shareholders, this growth already seems to be weighing on the share price, making it too sensitive to the slightest downsides. Therefore, I&#39;m downgrading PLTR stock to &#34;Sell&#34; again and expect a sobering correction in the coming weeks.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Time To Get Out Again (Rating Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Time To Get Out Again (Rating Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-24 12:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4636804-palantir-time-to-get-out-again-rating-downgrade>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nThe recent downward momentum in Palantir's stock price may be just the beginning. There are some important reasons for this, which I explain in this article. Read on.The bar for future business growth...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4636804-palantir-time-to-get-out-again-rating-downgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4636804-palantir-time-to-get-out-again-rating-downgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2369411315","content_text":"The recent downward momentum in Palantir's stock price may be just the beginning. There are some important reasons for this, which I explain in this article. Read on.The bar for future business growth, which was priced in right after PLTR's Q1 results, started to disappoint.I believe PLTR stock growth is going to be heavily weighed down for at least the next few months as its multiple expansion cools off.Technical picture: the market structure has changed from bullish to bearish over the past few days.I'm downgrading PLTR stock to \"Sell\" again and expect a sobering correction in the coming weeks.Back To Sell RatingIf you follow me, you probably know that I write about Palantir Technologies Inc. quite often here on Seeking Alpha. It all started in October 2021 - that's when my first \"Sell\" rated article on PLTR stock was published, causing a lot of excitement among bulls (some even wrote to me in private messages to try to change my mind about the firm). This was not surprising, as PLTR stock was growing rapidly at the time for various reasons (most notably, overly loose U.S. monetary policy in all its post-Covid manifestations), as was the entire risky asset market.Moving forward, I remained bearish until February 2023, when the stock fell to $8.33 - at which time I wrote that Palantir's Q4 2022 results might exceed market expectations for revenue growth, so the stock price could improve for a while. I must admit that I did not expect all the hype around AI that started a few weeks after that article and that we could eventually see until today.After the company's report for the first quarter of fiscal 2023, sentiment shifted dramatically: On the back of stronger-than-expected earnings per share, revenue, and guidance numbers, PLTR's share price surged to over $20.2/sh in a matter of weeks. After watching this strong share price performance from the sidelines and realizing that the company's valuation was getting crazier (in a bad way), I updated my Sell thesis in early June 2023, citing likely future growth pains, inflated multiples, and overly optimistic estimates from Wall Street analysts.My last article was neutral: I updated the predictive model for PLTR's Q2 results. The model I developed, which had not disappointed me before, concluded that PLTR would most likely again beat revenue (and likely EPS, too) consensus figures for the quarter, as the momentum of its peers gave a clear signal of such a result. But as it turned out in practice, Palantir could not do this: its results were in line with the consensus regarding EPS, missing the topline consensus for the first time in the last 12 quarters:Seeking Alpha Premium, PLTRTherefore, my recently updated Sell thesis turned out to be in the black:Seeking Alpha, author's coverage of PLTRThis long introduction to the history of my Palantir stock coverage follows one of the reasons why I again rate PLTR as \"Sell\": the bar for future business growth, which was priced in right after the Q1 results, started to disappoint.But at the very beginning, we need to understand against what background the PLTR correction takes place because this is very important.As Richard Excell from Stay Vigilant writes in his recent newsletter, we often forget that risky assets have their duration, which is usually the longest compared to the duration of fixed-income securities. Now that inflation is declining, we are entering a phase where, in theory, we should have a negative correlation in P/E multiples if interest rates remain stably high.Cornerstone data, shared by Richard ExcellAnd, if the pause in the current hawkish Fed policy continues, we are going to be in such a phase for about 5-6 months on average.ING via The Daily Shot [shared by Tilo Marotz on LinkedIn]In other words, persistently high-interest rates hurt the P/E ratios of high-growth companies like PLTR. Now guess for yourself: What was one of the main reasons for PLTR's stock growth year-to-date? You can see the answer below:Data by YChartsAs you may know, asset allocation is more important than stock picking, and from an asset allocation perspective, PLTR stock growth is going to be heavily weighed down for at least the next few months as its multiple expansions cool off.Now let's get back to earnings estimates. Not only are PLTR's multiples threatened, but I think EPS and revenue revisions should be revised down after the actual Q2 numbers disappointed the market.Seeking Alpha Premium, author's notesSeeking Alpha Premium, author's notesThis is not yet the case: Wall Street analysts stubbornly continue to boost EPS numbers, but at the same time, the increase in sales growth looks pretty mixed.Seeking Alpha PremiumI would guess that analysts expect gradual low double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion as the company matures. That's absolutely normal, but given the speed at which analysts are pricing in this \"maturity,\" I wouldn't be surprised to see more negative surprises in revenue and EPS. Judging by the numerous reviews I could find on the web, Palantir's offering is quite expensive (I'm talking specifically about the commercial offerings). Yes, they do a good job at the tasks that are asked of them, but in general, those tasks can be solved by other, cheaper applications.If the cost of debt goes up, businesses may not see the difference in choosing other, cheaper companies. Then labor costs, which are quite expensive for PLTR and which it has successfully passed on to end customers through the high prices, may play a cruel trick on the company.Seeking Alpha's Quant System rates Palantir's profitability as \"B+,\" which means it's not that bad. But if you look at the individual metrics, you'll find that aside from positive cash flow from operations, 82% of which comes from stock-based compensation adjustment [data from the 10-Q filing], PLTR has little to boast about.Seeking Alpha Premium, PLTR's ProfitabilityMeanwhile, business growth is actively slowing, and the new AI dawn is already fully reflected in the share price, in my opinion, judging by the key multiples.Seeking Alpha Premium, author's notesMoreover, we must not forget the technical picture. I am not an expert in this field, but even with the naked eye I see a very familiar formation: the market structure has changed from bullish to bearish, as far as I can tell from the chart below:TrendSpider Software, author's notesAlex Karp, the CEO, continues to sell (even more than before), the diluted number of shares is growing quarterly by 9-10% (in the last 3 quarters) and the general consensus in the market is bullish. What could possibly go wrong, right?Seeking Alpha dataThe Bottom LineThere are many reasons to doubt my thesis on Palantir. First, of course, the AI theme can give a big boost to the company's profits over the next few years. Most likely, it will - analysts have already very generously given the company high growth rates through FY2030. But it is also possible that their forecasts will prove to be underestimated, despite the current value, which seems to me to be unjustifiably overestimated. Only time will tell. Second, the market conditions I assume at the very beginning of this article also have a chance to work against me. The fact is that P/E ratios can ultimately remain high even at high-interest rates - it’s all about economic growth, which has to remain solid for this positive scenario for risky assets to come true. But something tells me that economic growth has its risks as well.Morgan Stanley [September 19, 2023], author's notesIn any case, I don't yet see a positive scenario for PLTR stock price, even if the company itself continues to grow and improve its margins. Unfortunately for shareholders, this growth already seems to be weighing on the share price, making it too sensitive to the slightest downsides. Therefore, I'm downgrading PLTR stock to \"Sell\" again and expect a sobering correction in the coming weeks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":223345030631440,"gmtCreate":1695533556715,"gmtModify":1695533562691,"author":{"id":"4131314249442152","authorId":"4131314249442152","name":"Chrissimo","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4131314249442152","idStr":"4131314249442152"},"htmlText":"Warren Buffett once said that it's wise for investors “to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”That is why Ark Investment just bought more than 250,000 Palantir shares a couple of days ago.","listText":"Warren Buffett once said that it's wise for investors “to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”That is why Ark Investment just bought more than 250,000 Palantir shares a couple of days ago.","text":"Warren Buffett once said that it's wise for investors “to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”That is why Ark Investment just bought more than 250,000 Palantir shares a couple of days ago.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/223345030631440","repostId":2369411315,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2369411315","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1695530956,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2369411315?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-09-24 12:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Time To Get Out Again (Rating Downgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2369411315","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The recent downward momentum in Palantir's stock price may be just the beginning. There are some important reasons for this, which I explain in this article. Read on.The bar for future business growth","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li>The recent downward momentum in Palantir&#39;s stock price may be just the beginning. There are some important reasons for this, which I explain in this article. Read on.</li><li>The bar for future business growth, which was priced in right after PLTR&#39;s Q1 results, started to disappoint.</li><li>I believe PLTR stock growth is going to be heavily weighed down for at least the next few months as its multiple expansion cools off.</li><li>Technical picture: the market structure has changed from bullish to bearish over the past few days.</li><li>I&#39;m downgrading PLTR stock to &#34;Sell&#34; again and expect a sobering correction in the coming weeks.</li></ul><h2 id=\"id_3988572946\">Back To Sell Rating</h2>If you follow me, you probably know that I write about <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> quite often here on Seeking Alpha. It all started in October 2021 - that&#39;s when my first &#34;Sell&#34; rated article on PLTR stock was published, causing a lot of excitement among bulls (some even wrote to me in private messages to try to change my mind about the firm). This was not surprising, as PLTR stock was growing rapidly at the time for various reasons (most notably, overly loose U.S. monetary policy in all its post-Covid manifestations), as was the entire risky asset market.Moving forward, I remained bearish until February 2023, when the stock fell to $8.33 - at which time I wrote that Palantir&#39;s Q4 2022 results might exceed market expectations for revenue growth, so the stock price could improve for a while. I must admit that I did not expect all the hype around AI that started a few weeks after that article and that we could eventually see until today.After the company&#39;s report for the first quarter of fiscal 2023, sentiment shifted dramatically: On the back of stronger-than-expected earnings per share, revenue, and guidance numbers, PLTR&#39;s share price surged to over $20.2/sh in a matter of weeks. After watching this strong share price performance from the sidelines and realizing that the company&#39;s valuation was getting crazier (in a bad way), I updated my Sell thesis in early June 2023, citing likely future growth pains, inflated multiples, and overly optimistic estimates from Wall Street analysts.My last article was neutral: I updated the predictive model for PLTR&#39;s Q2 results. The model I developed, which had not disappointed me before, concluded that PLTR would most likely again beat revenue (and likely EPS, too) consensus figures for the quarter, as the momentum of its peers gave a clear signal of such a result. But as it turned out in practice, Palantir could not do this: its results were in line with the consensus regarding EPS, missing the topline consensus for the first time in the last 12 quarters:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2b44df0d7b2a1ce5a8b020aee60d95\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"256\"/>Seeking Alpha Premium, PLTRTherefore, my recently updated Sell thesis turned out to be in the black:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/675acd76bd66c27a71e3f77bbc4ad9f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\"/>Seeking Alpha, author&#39;s coverage of PLTRThis long introduction to the history of my Palantir stock coverage follows one of the reasons why I again rate PLTR as &#34;Sell&#34;: the bar for future business growth, which was priced in right after the Q1 results, started to disappoint.But at the very beginning, we need to understand against what background the PLTR correction takes place because this is very important.As Richard Excell from Stay Vigilant writes in his recent newsletter, we often forget that risky assets have their duration, which is usually the longest compared to the duration of fixed-income securities. Now that inflation is declining, we are entering a phase where, in theory, we should have a negative correlation in P/E multiples if interest rates remain stably high.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06e85632b5039697b955e767e7130af3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\"/>Cornerstone data, shared by Richard ExcellAnd, if the pause in the current hawkish Fed policy continues, we are going to be in such a phase for about 5-6 months on average.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e4b075b08809686fc9a773670363176\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"488\"/>ING via The Daily Shot [shared by Tilo Marotz on LinkedIn]In other words, persistently high-interest rates hurt the P/E ratios of high-growth companies like PLTR. Now guess for yourself: What was one of the main reasons for PLTR&#39;s stock growth year-to-date? You can see the answer below:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7ba4884f02bb33ab96194c166fd1a54\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"/>Data by YChartsAs you may know, asset allocation is more important than stock picking, and from an asset allocation perspective, PLTR stock growth is going to be heavily weighed down for at least the next few months as its multiple expansions cool off.Now let&#39;s get back to earnings estimates. Not only are PLTR&#39;s multiples threatened, but I think EPS and revenue revisions should be revised down after the actual Q2 numbers disappointed the market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f42e2e517de3f2bf6ee55d2b80f56297\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"/>Seeking Alpha Premium, author&#39;s notes<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/574860c44e9756b6034b171ec0d7c6a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"201\"/>Seeking Alpha Premium, author&#39;s notesThis is not yet the case: Wall Street analysts stubbornly continue to boost EPS numbers, but at the same time, the increase in sales growth looks pretty mixed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac60876b9bc18ba6f53fbd041d0e2f52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"175\"/>Seeking Alpha Premium<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/049f70c7cf2e6c3ef6fe069bc1646408\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"175\"/>I would guess that analysts expect gradual low double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion as the company matures. That&#39;s absolutely normal, but given the speed at which analysts are pricing in this &#34;maturity,&#34; I wouldn&#39;t be surprised to see more negative surprises in revenue and EPS. Judging by the numerous reviews I could find on the web, Palantir&#39;s offering is quite expensive (I&#39;m talking specifically about the commercial offerings). Yes, they do a good job at the tasks that are asked of them, but in general, those tasks can be solved by other, cheaper applications.If the cost of debt goes up, businesses may not see the difference in choosing other, cheaper companies. Then labor costs, which are quite expensive for PLTR and which it has successfully passed on to end customers through the high prices, may play a cruel trick on the company.Seeking Alpha&#39;s Quant System rates Palantir&#39;s profitability as &#34;B+,&#34; which means it&#39;s not that bad. But if you look at the individual metrics, you&#39;ll find that aside from positive cash flow from operations, 82% of which comes from stock-based compensation adjustment [data from the 10-Q filing], PLTR has little to boast about.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c66acb441aa3120f1e6cad1960cff9b2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\"/>Seeking Alpha Premium, PLTR&#39;s ProfitabilityMeanwhile, business growth is actively slowing, and the new AI dawn is already fully reflected in the share price, in my opinion, judging by the key multiples.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d66f7fd9d5478e75666ab70bbc6af4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"451\"/>Seeking Alpha Premium, author&#39;s notesMoreover, we must not forget the technical picture. I am not an expert in this field, but even with the naked eye I see a very familiar formation: the market structure has changed from bullish to bearish, as far as I can tell from the chart below:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c09941161db31bfa7ed060a5813d776\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"/>TrendSpider Software, author&#39;s notesAlex Karp, the CEO, continues to sell (even more than before), the diluted number of shares is growing quarterly by 9-10% (in the last 3 quarters) and the general consensus in the market is bullish. What could possibly go wrong, right?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd461f9a80605607cfea7635da8ce38e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\"/>Seeking Alpha data<h2 id=\"id_4126657069\">The Bottom Line</h2>There are many reasons to doubt my thesis on Palantir. First, of course, the AI theme can give a big boost to the company&#39;s profits over the next few years. Most likely, it will - analysts have already very generously given the company high growth rates through FY2030. But it is also possible that their forecasts will prove to be underestimated, despite the current value, which seems to me to be unjustifiably overestimated. Only time will tell. Second, the market conditions I assume at the very beginning of this article also have a chance to work against me. The fact is that P/E ratios can ultimately remain high even at high-interest rates - it’s all about economic growth, which has to remain solid for this positive scenario for risky assets to come true. But something tells me that economic growth has its risks as well.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6eaf93c1c96e45958479d4006f4f985d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"486\"/>Morgan Stanley [September 19, 2023], author&#39;s notesIn any case, I don&#39;t yet see a positive scenario for PLTR stock price, even if the company itself continues to grow and improve its margins. Unfortunately for shareholders, this growth already seems to be weighing on the share price, making it too sensitive to the slightest downsides. Therefore, I&#39;m downgrading PLTR stock to &#34;Sell&#34; again and expect a sobering correction in the coming weeks.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Time To Get Out Again (Rating Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Time To Get Out Again (Rating Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-24 12:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4636804-palantir-time-to-get-out-again-rating-downgrade>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nThe recent downward momentum in Palantir's stock price may be just the beginning. There are some important reasons for this, which I explain in this article. Read on.The bar for future business growth...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4636804-palantir-time-to-get-out-again-rating-downgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4636804-palantir-time-to-get-out-again-rating-downgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2369411315","content_text":"The recent downward momentum in Palantir's stock price may be just the beginning. There are some important reasons for this, which I explain in this article. Read on.The bar for future business growth, which was priced in right after PLTR's Q1 results, started to disappoint.I believe PLTR stock growth is going to be heavily weighed down for at least the next few months as its multiple expansion cools off.Technical picture: the market structure has changed from bullish to bearish over the past few days.I'm downgrading PLTR stock to \"Sell\" again and expect a sobering correction in the coming weeks.Back To Sell RatingIf you follow me, you probably know that I write about Palantir Technologies Inc. quite often here on Seeking Alpha. It all started in October 2021 - that's when my first \"Sell\" rated article on PLTR stock was published, causing a lot of excitement among bulls (some even wrote to me in private messages to try to change my mind about the firm). This was not surprising, as PLTR stock was growing rapidly at the time for various reasons (most notably, overly loose U.S. monetary policy in all its post-Covid manifestations), as was the entire risky asset market.Moving forward, I remained bearish until February 2023, when the stock fell to $8.33 - at which time I wrote that Palantir's Q4 2022 results might exceed market expectations for revenue growth, so the stock price could improve for a while. I must admit that I did not expect all the hype around AI that started a few weeks after that article and that we could eventually see until today.After the company's report for the first quarter of fiscal 2023, sentiment shifted dramatically: On the back of stronger-than-expected earnings per share, revenue, and guidance numbers, PLTR's share price surged to over $20.2/sh in a matter of weeks. After watching this strong share price performance from the sidelines and realizing that the company's valuation was getting crazier (in a bad way), I updated my Sell thesis in early June 2023, citing likely future growth pains, inflated multiples, and overly optimistic estimates from Wall Street analysts.My last article was neutral: I updated the predictive model for PLTR's Q2 results. The model I developed, which had not disappointed me before, concluded that PLTR would most likely again beat revenue (and likely EPS, too) consensus figures for the quarter, as the momentum of its peers gave a clear signal of such a result. But as it turned out in practice, Palantir could not do this: its results were in line with the consensus regarding EPS, missing the topline consensus for the first time in the last 12 quarters:Seeking Alpha Premium, PLTRTherefore, my recently updated Sell thesis turned out to be in the black:Seeking Alpha, author's coverage of PLTRThis long introduction to the history of my Palantir stock coverage follows one of the reasons why I again rate PLTR as \"Sell\": the bar for future business growth, which was priced in right after the Q1 results, started to disappoint.But at the very beginning, we need to understand against what background the PLTR correction takes place because this is very important.As Richard Excell from Stay Vigilant writes in his recent newsletter, we often forget that risky assets have their duration, which is usually the longest compared to the duration of fixed-income securities. Now that inflation is declining, we are entering a phase where, in theory, we should have a negative correlation in P/E multiples if interest rates remain stably high.Cornerstone data, shared by Richard ExcellAnd, if the pause in the current hawkish Fed policy continues, we are going to be in such a phase for about 5-6 months on average.ING via The Daily Shot [shared by Tilo Marotz on LinkedIn]In other words, persistently high-interest rates hurt the P/E ratios of high-growth companies like PLTR. Now guess for yourself: What was one of the main reasons for PLTR's stock growth year-to-date? You can see the answer below:Data by YChartsAs you may know, asset allocation is more important than stock picking, and from an asset allocation perspective, PLTR stock growth is going to be heavily weighed down for at least the next few months as its multiple expansions cool off.Now let's get back to earnings estimates. Not only are PLTR's multiples threatened, but I think EPS and revenue revisions should be revised down after the actual Q2 numbers disappointed the market.Seeking Alpha Premium, author's notesSeeking Alpha Premium, author's notesThis is not yet the case: Wall Street analysts stubbornly continue to boost EPS numbers, but at the same time, the increase in sales growth looks pretty mixed.Seeking Alpha PremiumI would guess that analysts expect gradual low double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion as the company matures. That's absolutely normal, but given the speed at which analysts are pricing in this \"maturity,\" I wouldn't be surprised to see more negative surprises in revenue and EPS. Judging by the numerous reviews I could find on the web, Palantir's offering is quite expensive (I'm talking specifically about the commercial offerings). Yes, they do a good job at the tasks that are asked of them, but in general, those tasks can be solved by other, cheaper applications.If the cost of debt goes up, businesses may not see the difference in choosing other, cheaper companies. Then labor costs, which are quite expensive for PLTR and which it has successfully passed on to end customers through the high prices, may play a cruel trick on the company.Seeking Alpha's Quant System rates Palantir's profitability as \"B+,\" which means it's not that bad. But if you look at the individual metrics, you'll find that aside from positive cash flow from operations, 82% of which comes from stock-based compensation adjustment [data from the 10-Q filing], PLTR has little to boast about.Seeking Alpha Premium, PLTR's ProfitabilityMeanwhile, business growth is actively slowing, and the new AI dawn is already fully reflected in the share price, in my opinion, judging by the key multiples.Seeking Alpha Premium, author's notesMoreover, we must not forget the technical picture. I am not an expert in this field, but even with the naked eye I see a very familiar formation: the market structure has changed from bullish to bearish, as far as I can tell from the chart below:TrendSpider Software, author's notesAlex Karp, the CEO, continues to sell (even more than before), the diluted number of shares is growing quarterly by 9-10% (in the last 3 quarters) and the general consensus in the market is bullish. What could possibly go wrong, right?Seeking Alpha dataThe Bottom LineThere are many reasons to doubt my thesis on Palantir. First, of course, the AI theme can give a big boost to the company's profits over the next few years. Most likely, it will - analysts have already very generously given the company high growth rates through FY2030. But it is also possible that their forecasts will prove to be underestimated, despite the current value, which seems to me to be unjustifiably overestimated. Only time will tell. Second, the market conditions I assume at the very beginning of this article also have a chance to work against me. The fact is that P/E ratios can ultimately remain high even at high-interest rates - it’s all about economic growth, which has to remain solid for this positive scenario for risky assets to come true. But something tells me that economic growth has its risks as well.Morgan Stanley [September 19, 2023], author's notesIn any case, I don't yet see a positive scenario for PLTR stock price, even if the company itself continues to grow and improve its margins. Unfortunately for shareholders, this growth already seems to be weighing on the share price, making it too sensitive to the slightest downsides. Therefore, I'm downgrading PLTR stock to \"Sell\" again and expect a sobering correction in the coming weeks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":22,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":3,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}