End of one-party economic policy seen after midterms
A Republican takeover of Congress would reshape the fiscal and regulatory landscape for a wide range of businesses that have grappled for nearly two years with Democratic efforts to boost taxes and tighten rules.
Next week’s midterm elections are expected to usher in a new era of divided government, with polls showing Democrats losing control of the House and possibly the Senate. That would spell the end of President Joe Biden’s agenda.
For businesses, the biggest impact of a GOP ascent would be the end of one-party economic policy. Democrats would no longer be able to use the partisan budget maneuvers to ram through tax increases, change Medicare drug policies, and pass pandemic relief spending that many economists say helped fuel inflation.
Even in a divided government, though, there may be room for compromises on border security and legal immigration that could address the labor shortages vexing US industries, along with possible agreements to streamline permitting and leasing for energy projects. Yet, GOP lawmakers are vowing to investigate Biden’s administration, reject his appointees to key jobs and wage a fight over the US debt limit that risks rattling markets — politically charged moves that could interfere with any bipartisan deal-making.
With a week until Election Day, here’s a look at what’s at stake for business:
Republican Congress Would Put Brakes on Business Tax Increase
Democrats came within one Senate vote of raising the corporate tax rate to 25% and imposing a global minimum profits tax. The risk of that being resurrected goes away if the GOP takes the House as expected, along with the chances of a windfall profit tax for oil companies. The midterm outcome will also likely shape December talks on renewing research and development tax breaks.
Republicans have said that in the majority they will push to extend expiring provisions of the 2017 tax cuts signed by former President Donald Trump tax cuts. Two provisions of that law are especially valuable to businesses: the 20% deduction on qualified income for many pass-through entities that expires in 2025 and bonus depreciation for qualified business purchases that phases down fully in 2027.
Anti-tax activist Grover Norquist predicts a GOP Congress would negotiate with the White House a two-year extension of those provisions before the end of 2024.
Former top Senate GOP aide Rohit Kumar, now at PWC, predicts the GOP would force tough votes on a reconciliation bill extending the Trump tax law to pressure moderate Democrats to agree to small business relief. “That would set the table for a final negotiation in 2025,” he said.
Energy Production Could Get Boost, Climate Measures Pared
Republicans plan to push for expanded domestic energy production if they take the majority and will try to use voter frustration over high gasoline prices to get the Biden administration to go along. The House Energy and Commerce Committee will look to boost development of hydrogen projects, streamline permitting and development of nuclear power plants, and accelerate approval for liquefied natural gas export facilities, Representative Bill Johnson, an Ohio Republican who serves on the committee, said.
Those measures, if enacted, would benefit companies such as nuclear operator Southern Co., small modular reactor maker NuScale Power Corp., and liquefied natural gas exporter Cheniere Energy, Inc. They could benefit drillers like Halliburton Co. and oil producers such as Exxon Mobil Corp. Johnson also plans to target a Biden administration rule phasing out some natural gas furnaces that drew the ire of the American Gas Association, which represents utilities such as Dominion Energy, Inc. and DTE Energy Co.
Republicans are already vowing strict oversight over hundreds of billions of dollars in lending authority that Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act gave to the Energy Department. Meanwhile, carmakers’ desire for an additional $7 billion in spending on electric-vehicle charging stations, favored by companies like General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co., is likely to go ignored by GOP lawmakers. Biden cut his request for $15 billion in EV charger money in half to win GOP support for his bipartisan infrastructure bill and a second Democrats-only climate bill focused on extending EV tax credits for consumers.
US Chamber of Commerce Executive Vice President Neil Bradley said he doesn’t see the GOP being able to claw back money for renewable energy or reverse Biden’s past tax increases given the legislative hurdles in the Senate. “You are not un-ringing that bell in divided government,” he said.
Financial Regulations Could be Delayed or Thwarted
Trading firms including Robinhood Markets Inc. would benefit from a takeover by Republicans, who have sought to thwart planned regulations from the Securities and Exchange Commission under Gary Gensler. GOP lawmakers can delay rule-making with information requests to the SEC and language in annual funding bills directing the agency to hold off on regulating.
Meanwhile, one of the biggest targets for corporations is an SEC plan to require companies to disclose their greenhouse-gas emissions and in some cases from their suppliers and customers. Proposed in March, the rule has drawn the ire of industries from oil to farming. Exxon Mobil, Meta Platforms Inc. and Walmart Inc. have weighed in.
The SEC is also looking to add regulation on the crypto-currency industry.
Private equity firms and hedge funds could also benefit from any slowdown in SEC rulemaking. Gensler has proposed forcing them to disclose more about their fees and putting in place new restrictions, all of which have drawn the industry’s ire.
Antitrust Bill Opposed by Tech Companies Unlikely to Pass
Silicon Valley would likely be spared in a Republican Congress from sweeping legislation aimed at anti-competitive behavior by tech companies such as Apple Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google. The bill has sponsors in both parties and has been cleared by key House and Senate committees, yet the tech industry has helped to stall the measure’s progress with lobbying campaign that has topped $100 million.
House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy and likely House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan oppose the antitrust bill, which would have to be reintroduced if it doesn’t get a vote in the current Congress by the end of the year.
GOP lawmakers plan instead to focus on ending what they see as censorship of conservative voices on social media platforms, including by removing legal liability protections under Section 230, giving users an avenue to appeal when their content is removed and requiring more transparency from tech companies. None of these content-focused proposals is likely to become law, owing to insufficient support in the Senate and the strong odds of a Biden veto.
Tougher Regulations For Hospitals, Insurers
Hospitals, insurers and pharmaceutical benefit managers face the prospect of tough new regulations pushed by a Republican Congress, with the possible support from Democrats and the Biden administration. GOP lawmakers have promised to beef up requirements that hospitals post their prices online and lower drug costs by targeting drug industry middlemen known as pharmaceutical benefit managers. Party leaders have tried to shift away from promises to tear down the Affordable Care Act — also known as Obamacare — or restrict abortion rights, focusing instead on Americans’ rising medical bills.
Cathy McMorris Rodgers, the top Republican on the House Energy and Commerce Committee, ran ads in her home state of Washington vowing to require hospitals, insurers and doctors to disclose prices so consumers can shop around. Three pharmaceutical managers make up more than two-thirds of the total US market: Express Scripts Inc., CVS Health Corp. and OptumRx Inc., HCA Healthcare Inc., Ascension Health and Tenet Healthcare Corp. are hospital companies that may be affected.
Many Democrats remain frustrated by the limited nature of the drug price negotiation provisions for Medicare in the Inflation Reduction Act, with just 10 drugs coming under negotiation in 2026. Expanding that power is unlikely under GOP control. Johnson & Johnson, Merck & Co. Inc., Pfizer Inc. and Eli Lilly & Co. have products that Medicare spends heavily on.
Five-Year, $428 Billion Farm Bill Up for Renewal
The next Congress will need to pass another five-year Farm Bill governing direct agricultural subsidies, crop insurance, food stamps and conservation programs. The 2018 farm bill authorized $428 billion in spending over five years, with about three-quarters devoted to food assistance and a quarter to farm supports.
Renewing the farm bill, a pillar of domestic agribusiness, could be more difficult under GOP control. Some conservatives want to see farm subsidies cut, though there is broad support in both parties to maintain spending. The bigger issue will likely come on nutrition programs that the GOP has previously targeted over eligibility requirements and conservation programs. Food stamps help boost sales of groceries at retail chains such as Walmart and Kroger Co. by providing low-income recipients a way of buying more food.
Direct federal government payments are a significant contributor to farm profits, accounting for between 18% and 48% of annual net US farm income since 2018, according to the US Agriculture Department. The extra income for farmers helps boost sales for seed, pesticide, fertilizer and equipment providers such as The Mosaic Co. and Deere & Co. It also reduces costs for major grain buyers such as Cargill Inc. and Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. and meat and poultry processors such as Tyson Foods Inc. that purchase animal feed.
Weapons Makers Could See Boost in Contracting
A GOP-led Congress offers both opportunities and peril for he biggest US defense contractors including Lockheed Martin Corp., Raytheon Co., General Dynamics Corp. and Boeing Co.
Republicans have complained that the Biden administration under-funds weapons systems, and the party will be under pressure to ensure that the military’s budget keeps pace with inflation. Texas Representative Kay Granger, the likely next chair of the House Appropriations Committee, said in an interview she will prioritize increased defense spending.
Yet the defense industry also risks getting caught in GOP brinkmanship on spending to force Biden to cut social programs and boost border security. Protracted battles over spending could force lawmakers to rely more on interim bills to fund the government that don’t allow for new contracts. It’s likely oversight of the Pentagon’s contracting processes for expediting arms contracts awards for Ukraine will likely receive more scrutiny in a Republican-controlled Congress.
