Morgan Stanley’s newest Tesla Motors analyst downgraded the bank’s rating on the stock, a reversal from a prior bullish position.
Andrew Percoco downgraded Tesla to Equal-weight from Overweight upon resuming coverage of Tesla after prior analyst Adam Jonas shifted to a different role at Morgan Stanley. Interestingly, Percoco upped the firm’s Tesla price target to $425 from $410 in the process.
Percoco wrote that “high expectations” of Tesla’s AI ambitions led to a premium valuation, one that is fairly priced at the moment.
“While it is well understood that Tesla is more than an auto manufacturer, we expect a choppy trading environment for the TSLA shares over the next 12 months, as we see downside to estimates, while the catalysts for its non-auto businesses appear priced at current levels, driving our EW rating,” he said.
Tesla stock shed over 3% on Monday.
Percoco upped his Tesla price target, however, following a sum-of-the-parts analysis where the firm added $60 a share in extra equity value coming from the humanoid robotics business, while “moderating” its outlook on the auto and energy business.
“This is a reflection of lower [auto] volume expectations, with a 10.5% reduction in 2026 volumes and 18.5% reduction in cumulative deliveries through 2040 due to our more cautious view on the pace of EV adoption in the US coupled with growing competition in global markets,” he wrote.
The move to downgrade Tesla comes as an about-face for Morgan Stanley, where Adam Jonas led a bullish charge for the EV maker, making it his top pick in the auto space. Interestingly, it wasn’t the auto business alone that drove Jonas’s rosy outlook on Tesla; it was Tesla’s “embodied AI” play with full self-driving (FSD), robotaxis, and Optimus robots.
Which is not to say Percoco isn’t also bullish on Tesla’s embodied AI efforts.
Morgan Stanley's latest "Price Target Bridge" for Tesla shares. · Morgan Stanley
“Full Self Driving (FSD) is the crown jewel of Tesla's auto business. We believe that its leading-edge personal autonomous driving offering is a real game changer, and remains a significant competitive advantage over its EV and non-EV peers,” he added.
With regards to robotaxis, Percoco predicted around 33 total new service launches across the US in 2026, up from the approximate 11 launches expected in 2025. In addition to services in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area, Tesla is expected to test its Robotaxi service in Nevada and Arizona shortly.
Tempering that growth could be regulatory hurdles stemming from Tesla’s vision-only system, in addition to “scaling challenges” arising from adverse weather conditions like snow that could block cameras. Competitors like Waymo use systems that combine both cameras and sensors to perceive road conditions.
Similar to Jonas’s evaluation, Percoco has bull case ($860) and bear case ($145) price targets for Tesla, though he advises shareholders who are longer-term investors that Tesla at these levels represents an “attractive risk reward” based on whether it can navigate an EV downturn, roll out Robotaxis and FSD to other markets, and successfully scale production of Optimus robots.