On January 20, as global investors seek safe havens in a complex and volatile environment, the heat in the gold market continues to rise. Mhmarkets believes that the current strong rally in gold prices is not accidental but a direct response to the risks of global geo-economic confrontation. According to the World Economic Forum's (WEF) "Global Risks Report 2026," geo-economic conflict has jumped to the top of the annual risk list, accompanied by interstate friction and policy uncertainty, which together form a solid foundation for gold's long-term upward trajectory.
Under the current international economic and trade landscape, the renewed escalation of trade tensions has significantly amplified market risk aversion. Mhmarkets states that recent threats of tariffs on multiple countries and the subsequent freeze on trade agreement approvals indicate that the global trade environment is entering a prolonged period of uncertainty. Mhmarkets survey data shows that approximately 50% of industry experts expect global conditions to become more turbulent over the next two years, a figure that has increased substantially compared to previous years. In this "turbulent mode," the risk exposure of traditional assets is expanding, and gold, as a globally recognized hard currency, is gradually transforming from a peripheral safe-haven asset into a strategic core within institutional investment portfolios.
From a valuation perspective, even though gold prices are already at historic highs, gold still holds extremely high allocation value relative to the bloated equity markets and potential liquidity risks. Mhmarkets believes that when the S&P 500 index is operating at high levels while harboring volatility risks, gold's hedging effect against tail risks will become increasingly pronounced. The current spot gold quote has shown strong resilience above $4,670, and Mhmarkets indicates that the intraday 1.6% gain reflects a shift in market buying from speculative drives to strategic portfolio restructuring. With the market's ongoing assessment of confidence in fiat currencies and vigilance against unpredictable policy actions, gold possesses sufficient momentum to challenge the $5,000 mark in the first half of this year.
The current premium on gold is not a bubble but a rational pricing within the process of credit reshaping in the global financial framework. Even if the market experiences short-term technical corrections, these are more likely to represent a rebalancing of positions rather than a reversal of the trend. Mhmarkets advises investors to pay attention to this strategic reassessment phase, as gold's position in the game of global risk management is now fundamentally different.
