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On Monday, January 19th, Eastern Time, U.S. stock markets were closed for a holiday, but U.S. stock index futures showed a clear downward trend. Specifically, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 0.83%, S&P 500 index futures dropped by 0.88%, and Nasdaq 100 index futures declined by 1.09%.
Major European stock indices closed lower collectively. The Euro Stoxx 50 index fell by 1.72%, the UK's FTSE 100 index dropped by 0.39%, France's CAC 40 index declined by 1.78%, Germany's DAX 30 index decreased by 1.34%, and Italy's FTSE MIB index was down by 1.32%.
Gold and silver prices both surged to record highs, driven by factors such as former President Trump's tariff threats against Europe, which sparked safe-haven demand.
Spot gold once rose by 2%, reaching $4,690.88 per ounce, and is currently quoted at $4,675.76 per ounce.
Spot silver surged over 5%, reaching $94.726 per ounce, and is currently quoted at $94.479 per ounce.
An economist warned that the UK could face a recession risk if former U.S. President Trump swiftly advances new tariff threats. According to Capital Economics calculations, UK GDP could decline by 0.3% to 0.75%.
Based on the World Bank's assessment of UK economic growth, if Trump raises tariffs to 25% starting in June, the UK economy could suffer a loss of £21.6 billion.
Paul Dales, Chief UK Economist at Capital Economics, stated: "Currently, the UK economy is only growing by 0.2% to 0.3% per quarter. If a shock arrives all at once, it could trigger a recession."
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will attend a hearing regarding Fed Governor Cook. According to reports, Powell is scheduled to attend Wednesday's oral arguments at the U.S. Supreme Court concerning Fed Governor Cook, representing an unusual public stance by the head of the U.S. central bank.
The U.S. Supreme Court is currently hearing a case on whether former President Trump had the authority to remove Fed Governor Cook, who was appointed by President Biden. Reports indicate that Powell plans to attend Wednesday's court session, marking his most public and direct show of support for Cook to date.
Previously, Powell stated that the Trump administration had issued a subpoena to the Fed and threatened criminal charges. In a video statement released on January 11th, Powell described these condemnations as mere "pretexts," with the substantive aim being to pressure him into implementing significant interest rate cuts.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in January is 5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 95%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 20.7%, the probability of maintaining the current rate is 78.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 0.9%.
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