Intel’s $20 billion plan to ramp up semiconductor manufacturing may be just the crest of a wave of capital spending across chip makers in the next few years, making companies on the equipment side of the industry well-positioned to benefit, according to investment bank Berenberg.
Shares in European companies that design and build equipment used in making semiconductors jumped up on Wednesday, as the market had its first chance to react to Intel’s plan.ASML stock surged 5%, while shares in ASM International jumped 8% and Besi stock lifted 4%.
The back story.U.S. chip giant Intel said late on Tuesday that it would spend $20 billion to build two new plants in Arizona. The decision to expand the company’s manufacturing capability over the long term comes just weeks into Pat Gelsinger’s tenure as chief executive. The plan will ramp up capital spending for the chip maker this year from the around $14.7 billion expected by analysts to between $19 billion and $20 billion.
Intel’s decision comes amid a global semiconductor shortage that has impacted industries from personal electronics to automobiles. The U.S. government has increasingly signaled that it wants to secure domestic chip supplies, as much of the semiconductor industry is centered on East Asia. Gelsinger said that the chip shortage could last for at least two years—around the time that it takes to build new plants.
What’s new.Analyst Tammy Qiu of Berenberg said on Wednesday that the investment bank had raised its expectations for global capital expenditures in the semiconductor industry in 2021. The bank now estimates capital expenditure for the sector to rise 18% from 2020 levels, up from the midteens figure previously expected. Berenberg also expects Intel’s capital spending to remain high in the near future, in line with the company’s ambitious technology road map.
One company in particular is expected to benefit from Intel’s plans, according to Berenberg. Dutch company ASML, which supplies Intel, TSMC, and Samsung Electronics,holds a near-monopoly on the lithography systems critical to the chip-making process. The group, which is dual-listed on Amsterdam’s Euronextand on the Nasdaq, is also a pioneer in extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) lithography. In Berenberg’s view, Intel’s business update suggests the group is “fully committed” to EUV, which is the much-anticipated next generation of the technology.
“As a result, we expect Intel to be more active in ordering and adopting EUV in its manufacturing process in the future,” Qiu said. “In response, we expect TSMC to continue to stay aggressive with its road map. All this will lead to more demand for EUV tools.”
As Intel and TSMC continue to compete and spend aggressively on leading-edge technology, Berenberg predicts the positive effects will be felt by the equipment side of the industry for years to come. Equipment groups outside of the European stocks that jumped on Wednesday are poised to benefit, according to the investment bank, including U.S.-based Applied Materials,Lam Research,and KLA Corporation.
Looking ahead.Gelsinger in part blamed the Covid-19 pandemic for the global chip shortage, because of the rapid shift to digital platforms—by working from home—that has occurred over the past year. Even as the pandemic fades, it is expected that many consumer and industry trends will stick around, and Intel’s prediction that the shortage will last at least two years means investors will be talking about chip stocks for a long time.
Berenberg’s price target for ASML is €540, with the stock trading at €496 on Wednesday. The investment bank’s price targets on other equipment manufacturers suggest stocks across the sector have legs to run higher.