Implications of Apple’s entry into the car business continues to generate muchspeculationand manyanalyst reportsfrom various stockbrokerage firms. Piper Sandler weighed into the debate Wednesday, saying an Apple car makes perfect sense. Investors, however, should remember that producing an automobile is very, very different from making a smartphone.
Piper tech analystHarsh Kumarsays the timing is right for an Apple (ticker: AAPL) car. “The company can enter the market at a time of peak technology disruption while avoiding the risk of forming the market,” wrote the analyst in a Wednesday research report. Electric vehicles are proliferating, and autonomous driving technology is advancing. Cars will drive and feel different in the future—an Apple car would likely be an all-electric vehicle with self-driving options.
Apple has so far declined to comment about any car plans recently.
Kumar covers Apple and other technology stocks. His 23-page report dives deep into the auto business—for tech investors. Industry size and market segmentation between, say, luxury cars and economy sedans, covered in his report, are par for the course in auto research.
He assumes Apple, down the road, will sell 100,000 cars in year one. That might be aggressive.NIO(NIO),Li Auto(LI), andXPeng(XPEV) are threeEV startupsthat have been in business for years. They managed to sell about 100,000 vehicles on a combined basis in 2020. Kumar thinks Apple can be delivering 1 million cars by 2030.
For tech analysts at this point, the Apple car appears to be an exercise in fun with numbers. They are attracted to the huge market size: New car sales top $2.5 trillion annually. But auto analysts’ enthusiasm for an Apple vehicle is more tempered, and perhaps for good reason.
One factor that might hamper Apple’s ambitions is that cars are, of course, significantly more expensive than phones, making the purchase decision very different. In addition, “the regulatory side of the auto business is brutal and takes years to get through,” Benchmark auto analystMike WardtellsBarron’s.
Ward says he isn’t hearing Apple buzz in the auto industry. It’s “pretty tough to keep that quiet in the auto industry—thousands of suppliers, [government] approvals, the size of the factory needed, etc.” He isn’t saying it can’t happen, but it is harder than many investors might expect.
Morgan Stanley analystAdam Jonasalso covers cars mainly. He doesn’t appear certain an Apple car is on the way, but if one does show up, “don’t expect steering wheels.” That means full self-driving, which also means the Apple car is still years away.
He believes an Apple car can accelerate EV penetration. That could help existing auto makers with more progressive approaches to the EV market. But higher penetration isn’t a panacea for the car business. “At some point, today’s EV players must share the sandbox,” wrote the analyst in a recent report.
That threat isn’t affecting his ratings on competitors yet. He rate Tesla stock Buy and callsGeneral Motors(GM) a top pick.
J.P. Morgan‘s tech and car teams produced a joint report recently, and they don’t see an Apple car coming soon. They agreed if an Apple car is on the way, it will be delayed until full self-driving capability is more widely available.Robotaxi services, which can handle city driving, are planned in the next couple of years. But full self-driving capabilities are farther away—the cost of sensors needs to fall, and the software still needs to improve.
The firm’s U.S. auto analystRyan Brinkmanadded that a new competitor the size and strength of Apple is a negative for existing auto makers, but, like Ward, he hasn’t heard about any collaboration in the auto-supply base.
Another thing J.P. Morgan agrees on is outsourced manufacturing, meaning that Apple isn’t likely to assemble its car. That creates an opportunity for some existing car marker to build more volume. What company would win, however, isanyone’s guess.
Wedbush analystDan Ives, who covers disruptive technology, which includes Apple and EV makerTesla(TSLA), is placing his bets onVolkswagen(VOW.Germany). “We assign a 85%-plus chance that Apple will announce an EV partnership/collaboration over the next 3 to 6 months,” wrote Ives in a recent report. “We continue to strongly believe that VW is a top candidate for an Apple EV partnership/JV given the company’s modular factory footprint as well as the keyQuantumScapeownership.”
QuantumScape (QS) is pioneering solid-state lithium anode batteries that promise to improve electric-vehicle range and safety, while lowering costs and charge time.
Apple car hopes aren’t affecting investors much yet. Since new reports of a possible Apple car surfaced in December, GM and Tesla shares are up about 26% and 10%, respectively. TheS&P 500andDow Jones Industrial Average,for comparison, are up about 5% and 4%, respectively. Apple shares are down about 6%.
Investors, it appears, have other more pressing issues on their minds.