Investment firm Raymond James suggests that NVIDIA (NVDA.US) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US) may see moderate growth potential in the Chinese market. Analyst Simon Leopold noted in a client report, "While multiple uncertainties remain, making precise assessments challenging, under an opportunistic scenario, we estimate AMD could generate approximately $500 million to $800 million in additional revenue, with non-GAAP EPS potentially increasing by $0.10 to $0.20. NVIDIA may secure $7 billion to $12.5 billion in incremental revenue, lifting its 2026 non-GAAP EPS by $0.15 to $0.30." Leopold reaffirmed a "Strong Buy" rating for NVIDIA and an "Outperform" rating for AMD.
Pending government approval, NVIDIA plans to begin deliveries of its H200 series GPUs to China by mid-February next year. Three sources familiar with the matter indicated that initial shipments could be completed before the Lunar New Year. Two sources added that the first batch would primarily utilize existing inventory, with an estimated 5,000–10,000 modules (equivalent to 40,000–80,000 H200 chips). Post-approval, NVIDIA is expected to expand production capacity, with new orders scheduled for Q2 2026.
Separately, reports emerged on Monday that Alibaba (BABA.US) is considering purchasing 40,000–50,000 of AMD’s MI308 AI accelerators. Leopold highlighted that this potential order could translate to $675 million in sales, though revenue recognition would span multiple quarters.
Despite recent volatility in AI-related stocks, several Wall Street analysts maintain long-term bullish views on semiconductor holdings through 2026. Bank of America predicts NVIDIA will sustain strong growth momentum next year, driven by a steady pipeline of new products. Firms like Jefferies also specifically recommend NVIDIA and Broadcom.
