Gold price performance review and key views: Gold prices have repeatedly hit new historical highs recently. London spot gold closed at $4,599 per ounce (up 2.0% week-on-week), while domestic AU9999 gold closed at 1,033 yuan per gram (up 3.0% week-on-week). After opening this Monday, both domestic and international gold prices surged significantly by over 1%, once again setting new record highs.
Recent increases in geopolitical uncertainties may drive safe-haven capital into gold. One factor is the dispute over Greenland's sovereignty. Trump recently announced that starting February 1, a 10% tariff will be imposed on goods imported to the U.S. from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland. He declared the tariff rate would increase to 25% from June 1 until relevant parties reach an agreement on the U.S. "comprehensive and thorough purchase of Greenland." In retaliation, multiple EU countries are considering imposing tariffs on $930 billion worth of U.S. goods exported to Europe. The second factor is uncertainty surrounding the Iran situation. Trump previously warned that Iran would face "serious consequences" if it continues to suppress protesters, with military preparations, diplomatic mediation, and sanction pressures still advancing. Amid unprecedented global changes, the traditional international order is collapsing, which may benefit gold due to rising risk aversion.
U.S. December CPI came in below expectations, creating room for Fed rate cuts. December CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, while core CPI increased 2.6% year-on-year, both below market expectations. Core CPI growth hit its lowest level since March 2021. Following the data release, markets increased bets on earlier rate cuts, with the probability of an April rate cut slightly rising. Under baseline assumptions, the impact of tariffs on inflation remains one-off. With high base effects, U.S. inflation is expected to enter a downward trajectory in the second half of 2026, potentially supporting Fed rate cuts.
The Federal Reserve's independence crisis continues to develop. The U.S. Department of Justice is still conducting a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell. Trump last week again attacked Powell as "either incompetent or corrupt," but global central bank chiefs and Wall Street giants collectively expressed rare support for Powell. This Wednesday, the Supreme Court will hear arguments regarding the legality of Trump's previous dismissal of Fed Governor Cook. Regarding the Fed Chair position, Powell's term expires mid-year, and uncertainty around the next Fed candidate remains high. Trump claimed he will announce his pick soon and stated he hopes Hassett remains in his current position, though Hassett was previously considered the most likely candidate.
Looking ahead, the Fed remains in a major rate-cutting cycle. If a dovish chair is selected, the Fed's pace of rate cuts could become more aggressive, potentially benefiting gold. Beyond loose monetary policy, the U.S. is also in a phase of fiscal expansion. U.S. Treasury credit risks persist, central bank gold purchases continue amid de-dollarization trends, and global gold ETF investment demand remains strong. We maintain a positive outlook on gold's allocation value for 2026.
Key signals for gold ETF (518880) to monitor in the coming week: (1) U.S. Q3 GDP and PCE data; (2) Geopolitical developments.
Comparison of RMB-denominated gold versus international gold price trends:
Data source: Wind, HuaAn Fund, as of 2026/1/18
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