互联网投资：剁了效率追公平？

投资聚义厅2021-07-25

一从2020年年末开始，我们在互联网板块清晰地观察和感受到这么一些现象： 4Q20开打的社区团购战役标志着互联网行业的竞争变得更加激烈，阿里美团字节这样的公司几乎在所有领域彼此开战。蚂蚁金服上市叫停事件，标志着揭开互联网平台反垄断大幕；DD遭遇安全审查下架事件，标志着运动进入新一轮高潮。年轻人对互联网公司表现出又爱又恨的情绪，一方面大厂招聘还是挤破头，另一方面在网络公共空间又对互联网公司和...

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BP小林
·2021-07-26
[呆住] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住]
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1
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铛铛铛的铃铛
·2021-07-26
厲害了
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1
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25c33a59
·2021-07-26
????
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海天飞鸟
·2021-07-26
三桶油，三家電信，是要公平還是要效率？
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6
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华尔街小街
·2021-07-26
寫的什麼玩玩又臭又長
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3
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Youn7276
·2021-07-26
閱！
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18
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小孩子m
·2021-07-26
[呆住] [呆住] [呆住]
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2
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- YESYESYES:
  [开心]
  2021-07-26
  Reply
  Report
BP小林
·2021-07-25
[開心] [開心] [開心]
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3
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- Iris俊:
  666
  2021-07-26
  Reply
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Sda
·2021-07-25
好
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3
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猛逃
·2021-07-25
越說越擰巴，人爲市長久沒戲[白眼]
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5
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loon0406
·2021-07-25
Ok
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3
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浴缸潜水员
·2021-07-25
希望Metaverse不只存在於評論家筆下，或者王興的飯否語錄中。
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2
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启程资本
·2021-07-25
中概股被玩的不香了，以後政策風險必須考慮，考慮的比重必須大。
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16
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- gamerxyj:
  Cheap to buy ?
  2021-07-25
  Reply
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- Grantknight:
  Cound
  2021-07-25
  Reply
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- BYLI:
  Nice
  2021-07-25
  Reply
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Justin_L
·2021-07-25
嘿嘿嘿嘿
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2
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钞能力系我
·2021-07-25
更重要是有自產自己的東西，如芯片等，要有自己核心，不要只換了殼用歐美的
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1
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更深得蓝
·2021-07-25
mark
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人民币美元一起赚
·2021-07-25
任何場合不提提高第三產業比重說法+確保製造業穩定，就是豬腦子也知道現在資金往互聯網過多投資的做法是錯誤的，難道要高層赤裸裸說出大力支持製造業才能聽懂？
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3
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阿土伯
·2021-07-25
ZZ
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Fairness?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca37fbcb0bd8a51c1983bf5f8cc5d44f","symbols_score_info":{"160636":0.9,"161025":0.9},"content_text":"一\n从2020年年末开始，我们在互联网板块清晰地观察和感受到这么一些现象：\n\n4Q20开打的社区团购战役标志着互联网行业的竞争变得更加激烈，阿里美团字节这样的公司几乎在所有领域彼此开战。\n蚂蚁金服上市叫停事件，标志着揭开互联网平台反垄断大幕；DD遭遇安全审查下架事件，标志着运动进入新一轮高潮。\n年轻人对互联网公司表现出又爱又恨的情绪，一方面大厂招聘还是挤破头，另一方面在网络公共空间又对互联网公司和企业家们表达出强烈的不满、嘲讽甚至辱骂。\n进入2021年后，互联网大公司或者是宣布今年的利润增量不要了，或者是创始人以很快的速度从一线岗位向后退下，或者是取消大小周，一切都体现出浓浓的求生欲。\n大多数互联网公司股价都在这一年里遭遇过山车，春节前昂首大涨，春节后萎靡不振，7月开始则加速破位下跌。\n\n这几件事情大多看似独立偶然，但实则互为关联，背后有些一致性的规律在起着作用。大致上，有上中下三重压力三路大军，正围困着这个阵地。\n1、行业层面，主赛道确实太卷了。2020年的疫情带来了最后一波脉冲式的流量红利，快速表观增长又带来预期和估值的进一步拔高。在这次高潮消失后，2021年竞争烈度的加剧+高基数效应，本就会让许多公司的高增长预期有下调压力。这是第一组矛盾。\n2、社会层面。互联网叠加资本后，产生了火箭式的造富速度，甩开了大多数行业。这个事实构成了当下人心向背的基础。这是第二组矛盾。\n宝哥09年本科毕业，那时候咨询、外企、四大审计都算是很不错的去向。但十多年过去了，连这些行业的起薪都没有涨多少，四大应届生只有9K起薪，相对地位被互联网远远甩开，何况那些更普通的行业和公司。\n\n 你要是每年拿着十多万死工资，而你同学因为进了互联网公司拿到期权上市大发一笔，同学聚会上屌得不行，你是会为他鼓掌叫好，还是会在B站弹幕里刷“万恶的资本家你工人爷爷来了”？\n\n3、政治层面，资本必然是要扩张追求回报的，特别是有义务为股东创造回报的上市公司，而红利期的消失本就让大公司的行为更偏向于提利润、跨赛道、收并购。但是在商业词汇中用来表现亚马逊/美团这类很牛逼公司的“无边界扩张”，到了政治词汇中就变成了“无序扩张”。\n为什么宁德时代涨到1万亿市值没事，而互联网公司搞到2000亿美金就要吃铁拳呢？\n首先是因为制造业公司没有太大社会影响力，你就算马路上跑的一半车子是EV，EV里一大半用的是你CATL的电池，除了股民依然没几个晓得宁德时代。你企业家的影响力也难以达到一个全民的高度，毕竟许多人连曾毓群的毓都不晓得怎么念。\n第二是因为制造业的生产要素就这么些，土地、能源、资金、工人这些都有着成熟的管控能力。而互联网企业的核心要素里最重要的数据、算法、网络，都是一些你知道怎么用，但我不知道怎么管的东西。所以你先靠边停车，把问题讲清楚，再看怎么搞。\n用社论的话来说，促进平台经济在规范中发展。\n初，虞叔有玉，虞公求旃。弗献。既而悔之，曰：“周谚有之：‘匹夫无罪，怀璧其罪。’吾焉用此，其以贾害也？”乃献之。\n——《左传》\n二\n从战术上来评估，眼下是一个困局。\n如果只是中观层面上的竞争焦灼，还可以用研究分析来预判输赢。但宏观层面上的压制又让可能的赢家也似乎不那么安全。这里面隐含的一个问题是，在股票投资中究竟应该把“讲政治”摆在什么位置？\n宝哥的观点是：内方外圆，不能不讲，但别入戏太深。\n\n 如果政策对商业模式将会造成重大破坏，比如K12、电子烟，或者说把你收入砍一半，那一定是要做最快速的撤退。如果政策影响的是阶段性的增长，那么预期该下调的就下调，视轻重程度来判定基本面是否进入逆风期。如果政策没有影响基本面，只是受到一些板块连带的情绪影响，这种情况是不应当乱动的\n\n就互联网板块而言，大部分公司在过去数月其实遭遇到的是第二类情况，而且压力并不只是来自于政策。\n我们可以想象一个这样的战场图：\n\n股票的价格相当于一支军队的战线，股价在短期内涨幅越大，代表隐含收益率越低，此时意味着战线顶得过于靠前，敌方腹地的反击力量也会越强。\n增长预期就相当于这只军队的后勤补给，战线越往前顶后勤线补给压力就越大，如果能保持畅通那或许还能硬啃，倘若此时预期出现扰动，粮道一断则必然军心不稳。\n\n二季度以300元以上的美团为代表的这批互联网股就是这种情形，战线太深入敌后，外线作战时间过长，已成疲师之态。一旦在外线遭遇逆风战，对方三路大军齐下必然要遭遇重击。\n友情提示，这种情况不单单适用于互联网，各种茅宁亦同理。\n在这样一个战局中我们会怎么做呢？\n外线作战遭遇逆风，在战术上我们会从这样的不利阵地上撤下来，而不是去拼刺刀无谓消耗有生力量。革命战争史表明，以弱打强时，御敌于国门之外绝不是一个好打法。保存有生力量，在火力和后勤都更有利的内线，才能形成局部优势，进而寻求决战。\n此战术意图在七月上旬已经得到贯彻执行。\n三\n前两周流传很广的一个股评：大意是说基本的国策，是要鼓励制造业遏制服务业。\n我们认为基本国策已经发生变化。过去十年，中国希望学美国通过发展服务业来推动 GDP 的增长。但经过了 2018 年中美贸易摩擦和2020 年新冠疫情的两次冲击，让最高层意识到工业体系的完整和完备是非常重要的。而且我们需要补短板，不让别人卡脖子才能够从疫情中第一个恢复。于是在过去的九个月，我们看到在任何场合都取消了关于服务业占比要提高以及刺激第三产业发展的说法。在 2021 年的政治局政府工作报告会议里专门提出制造业占 GDP 的比例不再下降。这说明在基本发展道路上，我们已经抛弃了美国道路，转向了德国道路。通过发展制造业带动 GDP 未来的进一步增长。所以重制造、轻服务已经成为未来三到五年甚至五到七年的基本政策。在制造业得到资本市场大力融资，政策扶持之外，我们看到服务业一系列的遏制政策都出台了，针对教育、医美、电子烟、电商、传媒、娱乐、游戏行业。这些服务业的政策都从原来无监管变成加强监管。所以基本的国策发生了重大的变化。\n我看完只有两个字：幼稚。\n这又是一个典型的MindFuck，不宏大叙事不足以炒股票。\n一个基本事实是，我国成为世界第一大制造业国家已经11年之久，全球占比30%。制造业本就是我们这些年来崛起的根基，在这样的一个基础上，任何一个高层领导本就不可能轻视制造业。用原本不重视反衬现在的重视，只是一种修辞手法。\n我们现在的制造业政策，是鼓励制造业变得更加先进、高端、清洁、高效，在这方面德国制造业也确实是很好的学习榜样，这都没问题。\n但德国8千万人，中国14亿人，中国GDP是德国的4倍，你说高层要把基本国策转去走一条德国道路，这从常识上就站不住脚。一个几千万劳动人口的国家，可以通过给全世界做高精尖零件机械挣美元，把小日子过得不错。但你把这个量级放到14亿人试试看？\n\n 德国4500万劳动人口，中国一年新增1500万就业人口，就算把德国人饭碗都敲掉，也就管3年就业。宁德时代1万亿市值3万员工，如果A股的100万亿市值对应的其他公司都拿掉，换成100个宁德时代也就是300万人的就业，约等于外卖骑手产生的就业。\n\n发展先进制造业和发展服务业，两者从发展规律上是统一的。当制造业向上走，人均产出提升时，才更需要发展服务业来吸纳更多的就业人口。而制造业人均收入水平的上升，最终也必然通过内部流通循环，带动服务业产值的上升。\n中国即将要成为全世界最大的消费市场，如果我们的国策是遏制服务业，全民去做产业工人，那请问为什么还要提出内循环呢？还通过什么实现内循环呢？\n中国不会照搬美国，也不会照搬德国，我们只能从自身的禀赋和约束出发，走自己的道路。\n如果大家认真去查2021年的政府工作报告，原文字眼是“保持制造业比重基本稳定，改造提升传统产业，发展壮大战略性新兴产业，促进服务业繁荣发展”。本来是一碗水端平的话，但“保持基本稳定”到了股评里成了“不再下降”，而“促进繁荣发展”成了“遏制”。\n好在高层不是炒股票的，不会因为股票上的一点芝麻绿豆，而失去对正常规律的认识。\n当然我也能理解，因为绝大多数机构是做配置的，要打动他们做交易，更重要的是A是不是比B好，而非A本身有多好。捧一个的时候习惯要踩一个，本就是这行的营销方法和话术体系，也符合人性。\n这种习惯是如此之强，以至于这些分析师和基金经理可能都忘了自己也是做服务业的，在老百姓眼里也是不创造价值但是动动鼠标打打电话就能年入千万的对象。\n关于服务业，倒是还找到一个半年前的研究报告，坚定看多服务消费内循环成为未来5年的重中之重，大家有时间不妨学习一下，和股评的逻辑做做印证比较。\n四\n最后说一下战略上的思考。\n看长一点，数字经济这个大赛道是否还是兵家必争之地？\n如果能够撇除短期市场层面的情绪干扰，带着战略定力去思考这个问题，答案是毋庸置疑的：一定是兵家必争之地。因为这条赛道创造足够多的价值，既创造丰厚的商业价值，也创造巨大的社会价值。\n前面讲过政策带来三种影响：①破坏长期商业模式；②影响中短期增长；③影响情绪和估值。其中之所以会有第③类情形，是因为许多人认为①将无差别发生在大多数互联网公司身上：摧毁他们的商业模式和盈利根基。\n过了3年，又打到N-4层来了。\n公平和效率一定是既要又要，现阶段的主题是提升公平的重要性，但绝不意味着打着这个口号摧毁效率。会这么想的人实则是低估了执政者的能力，是一种低级红高级黑的想法。\n互联网是一个治理问题，不是斗争问题。既然是治理问题，治大国若烹小鲜，讲的是平衡与火候，不是非此即彼，更不是剁了效率追公平的炒股式操作。* 浙江书记：共同富裕是差别富裕，不是同等富裕，更不是杀富济贫\n过程中会有一些如K12的局部牺牲者，但杀也是为了儆，总体定性仍然是整肃、改编，而不是摧毁。在整肃完成后，那些优秀的、为人民服务的公司，其社会价值和商业价值还是会保留下来。\n祸兮福之所倚，如果没有政策干扰，这些已呈疲师之态的股票本来也要经历高预期高估值下的对抗磨损，需要消耗很长一段时间。而有了政策压力，可能会让股票更痛快地出清。\n我们在等待一个2014年白酒级的机会。\n摆在眼前的第二条路，是一条长征般的道路。\n互联网给我们带来了许多美好的回忆，第一次接触到电脑玩上三国志，第一次上网逛BBS，第一次用QQ加上暗恋女生，第一次用百度搜各种各样奇怪的知识，第一次用淘宝买到找了很久找不到的书，第一次用上微信感受到了移动互联网，第一次用美团叫上外卖……即便是最近这几年，依然记得第一次用拼多多感叹于它的真香，第一次用抖音几乎刷到不睡觉。\n这些记忆伴随着85-95这代人的成长，我们也无法接受回到没有互联网的时代。但是我也明白升米恩担米仇的道理：\n人心是看边际的，评价最高的甜蜜期，往往是它给你带来边际增量最大的时候。\n\n 你躺在沙发上动动手指，一碗热饭30分钟送到嘴边，这件事从无到有，是边际增量最大的时候。但是从30分钟缩小到25分钟，可能就没有那么重要；而这时外卖费从3块提到4块，势必有人要开骂。\n\n从这个角度，我们必须要去布局下一代计算平台，向Metaverse去远征，去找创造新的爽点的公司，去找更多“升米”状态下的公司。这条路绝不会好走，中间也要过草地翻雪山，但往那个方向走是对的，能给我们赢得战略上的主动。\n摆在眼前第三条路是南泥湾开荒，自下而上找更多B1变A3、A3变S的机会，而不局限行业。科创板和创业板这一年来上了很多股票，自下而上耐心多翻，还是有些优质的符合先进生产力方向的公司存在投资机会。这种做法肯定不会比宁德隆基各上10个点来的轻松，但鉴于现在的拥挤程度，我认为是更稳妥，也更可能产生足够回报的打法。\n如果你对中国长期有信心，就别信放弃效率的鬼话。你得相信，科技公司只要持续通过效率和技术为人民服务，创造更多社会价值，必然会被回馈相匹配的商业价值。\n这是对社会主义市场经济体制的基本信仰。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":800334071,"gmtCreate":1627277054193,"gmtModify":1703486567526,"author":{"id":"3569034930679856","authorId":"3569034930679856","name":"BP小林","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab11857f8510820e3bc13bd0a9bd1bcb","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569034930679856","authorIdStr":"3569034930679856"},"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;[呆住]&nbsp;[呆住]&nbsp;[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;[呆住]&nbsp;[呆住]&nbsp;[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住] 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