The $600 billion space sector should keep getting bigger next year as startups and established companies alike ramp up their efforts. Elon Musk and his SpaceX are leading that charge.
The potential 2026 public listing of SpaceX would be a “seismic event for the space economy,” according to Mark Boggett, the CEO of venture-capital firm Seraphim Space. SpaceX plans to raise more than $30 billion and grow its valuation to $1.5 trillion from $800 billion, Bloomberg Newsreported.
SpaceX’s initial public offering, which could come as soon as mid-2026, would surpass Saudi Aramco’s $29 billion public listing in 2019 to become the largest public offering of all time by capital raised. According to PitchBook, SpaceX’s IPO could generate almost as much exit value for the U.S. venture-capital market as the past five years combined.
SpaceX is doing “incredible things,” said Phil Scully, a general partner at Balerion Space Ventures, which has invested in companies like Stoke Space. The IPO “is just shining a light on a company that private-market investors have been tracking for a long time,” he added.
The company is best known for its superiority in the rocket-launch business, although its satellite-internet business is behind most of its revenue. In 2024, SpaceX attempted 138 orbital missions, more than half of all global launches that year, and has completed 165 launches in 2025.
SpaceX’s primary vehicle is the Falcon 9, a medium-lift vehicle with a reusable booster, which has been key to the company’s efforts to cut down the cost of launches and ramp up its launch cadence. But much of its focus in 2026 will be on Starship, a 404-foot rocket key to Musk’s dream of colonizing Mars.
The company is currently building the third-generation version of its Starship rocket and “Super Heavy Booster” that Musk said will be a “massive upgrade” over the current models, which had a rocky track record. The new vehicles will be equipped to handle in-orbit docking and demonstrate vehicle-to-vehicle propellant transfer while in orbit — which is key for future moon or Mars missions.
The Starbase, Texas–based company plans to send its first unmanned Starship to Mars in 2026, although it’s unclear whether the vehicle will be ready to make that trip in time for the Mars transfer window, which occurs about every two years. SpaceX is also expected to begin laying the groundwork for its plan for space-based data centers, which the industry thinks could solve a growing energy problem.
A growing ensemble
Despite SpaceX maintaining its status as the industry leader, a crowd of rivals has started to form in the U.S. The new head of NASA is likely to encourage that.
“I absolutely agree with competition,” said NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman during a recent Senate hearing. “I think we need competition for the vendors that support NASA’s critical mission.”
Under Isaacman, who founded Shift4 Payments, the agency is expected to continue to push more responsibilities to commercial partners. And, in a recentexecutive order, President Donald Trump said his administration plans to attract at least $50 billion of investment in U.S. space markets by 2028 and upgrade infrastructure to aid launch providers.
That’ll benefit many players, including Blue Origin, which has attempted to ramp up its efforts after years of sluggishness. Blue Origin was founded in 2000 by Amazon.com founder Jeff Bezos.
Blue Origin had major success launching New Glenn, a 322-foot rocket designed for reusability, with the vehicle reaching orbit and its booster being recovered during its second test. After that test, the private company said it would build two versions of New Glenn, including one that will more directly rival SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy.
The Kent, Washington–based company also plans to launch the Blue Moon Mark 1, a cargo vehicle, in early 2026 to gather data and deliver a NASA research device to the moon. That’ll help prepare it to deliver a large moon lander for astronauts in a few years for a $3.4 billion government contract and compete for a $2.9 billion contract initially awarded to SpaceX.
Blue Origin has added Tory Bruno to its roster to lead a new division focused on national-security programs. Bruno had been CEO of the United Launch Alliance, a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, a role he had been in for almost 12 years.
In August, Bruno told reporters ULA has forecast between 20 and 25 launches for next year and was on track for nine in 2025. The company ended this year with just six.
Boeing is also expected to attempt an uncrewed launch of its infamous Starliner.
Another major player is Rocket Lab, which has become the second-biggest launch provider in the U.S. with its Electron vehicle that serves the small-satellite launch market. The Long Beach, Calif.–based company’s first test of its Neutron reusable rocket that could rival the Falcon 9 is expected by mid-2026 after previous delays.
There’s also Firefly Aerospace, which seeks to launch its Alpha rocket by early 2026 after it identified an issue that caused a previous vehicle to explode during a September test. The Cedar Park, Texas–based company will be one of several planning to send lunar landers to the moon next year, along with Intuitive Machines and Blue Origin.
Several smaller players are also looking to ramp up in 2026. Stoke Space plans to launch an expendable rocket next year to collect data for its push for reusable vehicles, while Relativity Space wants to test its medium- to heavy-lift reusable rocket in late 2026.
But there is a downside to the growing number of launch providers: an eventual lack of places to launch from.
“The unforeseen challenge that all these companies are gonna run into” is the space launch range, said Chris Quilty, who is co-CEO of Quilty Space, and has covered the satellite and space sector for more than 20 years. “Eventually you may see the problem is not a lack of launch vehicles … but where you’re gonna launch from,” he added.
The U.S.’s ranges in Florida and California have become some of the busiest spaceports in the world, largely driven by the surge in commercial launches. The U.S. Space Force is expected to spend billions of dollars upgrading its aging launch facilities, which hosted about 60% of the world’s launches last year, according to Air and Space Forces Magazine.
“There is a practical limit to how many times you can launch out of [the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station] and not disturb air traffic and drive people crazy,” said Quilty, who noted that SpaceX, Firefly and Relativity Space, among others, want to launch rockets out of the Florida range.
Don’t count out foreign competition
Over the last decade, China has increased its efforts to promote its domestic space industry. The most recent move came last week, when the Shanghai Stock Exchange said it would speed up the IPO process for Chinese companies developing reusable commercial rockets by exempting them from some financial requirements.
A few days before that announcement, Beijing-based rocket company LandSpace said it completed a pre-IPO process called “tutoring,” setting it up for a 2026 listing on the tech-focused STAR Market, according to Reuters. LandSpace is seen as part of China’s answer to SpaceX, although it remains well behind the U.S. company it’s been accused of copying.
In early December, LandSpace attempted its first launch of the Zhuque-3 medium-lift rocket, which is designed to have a reusable booster. But China’s first attempt to land a first stage from an orbital launch ended with the booster hurtling down to Earth and narrowly missing its landing pad.
The second Chinese attempt was on Dec. 23, when the state-owned China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation launched the Long March-12A. As with LandSpace’s attempt, the upper stage completed its job, but the first stage couldn’t be recovered, according to the company.
Europe is also making moves. While the region is outpaced by both the U.S. and China, the European Union has been growing its overall spending in the commercial space sector. In 2024, European nations, institutions and private groups invested about €16 billion ($18.8 billion) in the sector, according to the consulting firm McKinsey.
That’s set to grow over the next few years. In November, the European Investment Bank announced a lending program tailored to the space sector expected to include €500 billion ($588 billion) from itself and some €1.4 billion ($1.64 billion) of new investment from commercial banks.
Germany plans to spend €35 billion ($41 billion) on space-related defense projects by 2030, most of which is expected to go toward German companies. And France announced a planned increase of €4.2 billion ($4.94 billion) over the rest of the decade.
Trump and his “push for America First” have “caused Europe to wake up,” said Quilty. “We’re seeing this massive move towards every country trying to create their own sovereign capability, which is causing this massive upswell in demand across the industry.”
