To The Moon

Tensions flared over the weekend as the U.S. Navy seized an Iranian vessel, while Iran fired upon ships and reinstated control measures in the Strait of Hormuz, driving a sharp spike in international crude oil and natural gas prices. Brent crude surged by as much as 7.9%, nearly erasing most of the losses from the previous Friday, after Iran had earlier announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. European natural gas prices also climbed by 11%. Iran closed the critical waterway again on Saturday, citing U.S. blockades against Iranian-linked vessels as a violation of a ceasefire agreement set to expire on Tuesday. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. Navy fired upon and seized an Iranian vessel in the Gulf of Oman after it ignored orders to stop while departing from the port of Hormuz. This marks the first major confrontation between the two sides following a week-long blockade. Hours before the incident, both sides offered conflicting statements regarding peace talks scheduled in Islamabad: Trump expressed optimism about reaching an agreement, while Iran indicated there was no "clear" prospect for a deal. Haris Khurshid, Chief Investment Officer at Karobaar Capital LP, commented, "The market is still pricing in a risk premium ahead of the deadline but has not fully bet on a worsening situation. If developments continue along this path, oil prices could gradually rise to around $105–115, though they will remain volatile in response to news." The standoff in the Strait of Hormuz threatens to intensify the global energy crisis, contradicting Trump’s weekend prediction that the conflict would end quickly. Prior to the U.S.-Israel military action against Iran in late February, approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments passed through this strait. The waterway is just one of several unresolved issues, which also include Iran’s nuclear capabilities and Israel’s ongoing incursions into Lebanon. Data compiled by Bloomberg showed no vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz were detected on Sunday. On Saturday, at least 13 oil tankers abandoned plans to exit the inland sea and turned back toward the Persian Gulf. The conflict has triggered an unprecedented supply shock, exacerbating inflationary pressures and weighing on global economic growth. The compounding global effects of the war are expected to become more apparent this week, with business sentiment surveys from multiple countries likely signaling stagflation risks. At the time of writing, Brent crude futures for June delivery were up 6.79% at $96.52 per barrel, while WTI crude futures for June rose 7.19% to $88.53 per barrel.