Market Analysis Geopolitically, when asked whether an unfavorable Supreme Court ruling on tariffs would impact U.S. security policy regarding Greenland, Trump stated that if existing tariff tools were restricted, he "could use other methods," such as alternative measures like a "licensing system." He emphasized that the current approach is the "best, strongest, fastest, simplest, and least complex," but not the only option. The U.S. Supreme Court has yet to rule on matters related to Trump's tariffs. Additionally, two senior Canadian government officials revealed that the Canadian Armed Forces have simulated a U.S. military invasion of Canada and potential Canadian responses. This is believed to be the first time in a century that the Canadian military has simulated an attack by the United States on its country.
Futures Market and Trading Volume: On 2026-01-20, the main Shanghai gold futures contract opened at 1,050.16 yuan per gram and closed at 1,060.16 yuan per gram, representing a 1.08% change from the previous day's close. The day's trading volume reached 41,087 contracts, with open interest standing at 129,725 contracts. During the previous night session, the main gold contract opened at 1,063.00 yuan per gram and closed at 1,074.20 yuan per gram, rising 1.32% from the afternoon session's close.
On 2026-01-20, the main Shanghai silver futures contract opened at 23,053.00 yuan per kilogram and closed at 23,062.00 yuan per kilogram, showing a -0.55% change from the prior session's close. The daily trading volume amounted to 715,932 contracts, while open interest reached 314,710 contracts. In the previous night session, the main silver contract opened at 23,660 yuan per kilogram and closed at 23,027 yuan per kilogram, declining 0.15% from the afternoon session's close.
U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring: As of 2026-01-20, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.293%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between 10-year and 2-year yields stood at 0.705%, also remaining flat compared to the prior session.
SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes: On 2026-01-20, for the Au2604 contract, long positions increased by 12,962 contracts compared to the previous day, while short positions rose by 4,583 contracts. The total trading volume for Shanghai gold contracts during the last trading session was 282,860 contracts, reflecting a -32.64% change from the day before. For silver, in the Ag2604 contract, long positions decreased by 6,690 contracts, and short positions fell by 8,326 contracts. The total trading volume for silver contracts in the previous session was 1,583,430 contracts, marking a -42.09% change from the prior day.
Precious Metals ETF Holdings Tracking: In the precious metals ETF space, gold ETF holdings remained unchanged from the previous day at 1,085.67 metric tons. Silver ETF holdings increased by 11 metric tons to reach 16,073 metric tons compared to the prior session.
Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking: Basis Spread: On 2026-01-20, domestic premiums showed gold at 2.27 yuan per gram, while silver registered a domestic premium of -239.56 yuan per kilogram. Gold-Silver Ratio: The ratio based on the main SHFE contracts was approximately 45.97, up 1.63% from the previous day. The external market gold-silver ratio stood at 50.74, increasing 0.43% from the last trading session.
Fundamentals: Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d Market Monitoring for the previous trading day (2026-01-20) showed gold trading volume at 45,718 kilograms, down 6.33% from the prior session. Silver trading volume reached 428,876 kilograms, decreasing 7.26% from the previous day. Gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, while silver delivery volume stood at 60 kilograms.
Strategy Gold: Cautiously Bullish Current market conditions show growing safe-haven sentiment, which may strengthen investment demand for gold. Consequently, gold prices are expected to maintain relative strength in the near term. The Au2604 contract is projected to trade within a range of 1,050-1,080 yuan per gram.
Silver: Neutral Silver currently demonstrates divergence from gold, appearing slightly weaker relative to gold due to dominant safe-haven flows. Silver prices themselves are expected to maintain a consolidating pattern, with the Ag2604 contract likely trading between 22,500-23,500 yuan per kilogram.
Arbitrage: Short Gold-Silver Ratio on Rallies Options: Temporarily Suspended
Risks Overseas Liquidity Risks Continued Exodus of Speculative Positions
