To The Moon

"NIO is still alive, and being alive means there is opportunity." On January 6th, after being repeatedly questioned about "how much longer it can survive," NIO officially celebrated the delivery of its 1 millionth mass-produced vehicle, formally joining the elite "million-unit club" of automakers. NIO Chairman William Li expressed this sentiment at the event. Among the new automaker camp, this moment likely carries more weight than the million-unit celebrations of any previous car company. Unlike the "roundabout strategy" of extended-range models or the cutthroat tactic of trading price for volume, NIO has validated its business model by pursuing the "hard mode" path of "premium pure electric + battery swap." Li坦言, "Since starting NIO, I feel like I've entered an endless game, a marathon on a muddy road; it's truly been very tough." Fortunately, NIO has managed to keep pace with the main pack through successive industry shakeouts. As NIO Co-Founder Qin Lihong stated, reaching 1 million vehicles in the automotive industry is a crucial milestone for a company's growth and a key indicator of its potential for long-term survival, signifying that NIO has truly entered the final competitive stage. For a company that has experienced being "on the brink," this is also a reward for its "long-termism." Over the past few years, NIO has faced countless questions from public opinion about "how long it can last." Looking back from the milestone of 1 million units, the core reasons NIO has survived and achieved growth lie in getting two extremely difficult things right: daring to make "tenacious" investments in underlying technology and persisting with "hard work" on infrastructure services. Li revealed that NIO has cumulatively invested over 65 billion RMB in R&D, delving into the toughest fundamental challenges. Even before NIO was formally established and registered, Li spent $100,000 of his own money to investigate one question: is full-aluminum manufacturing feasible in China? This近乎偏执的 R&D DNA continues today. From chips and operating systems to intelligent chassis, NIO insists on in-house, forward development. Even though it initially involved overcoming significant difficulties and higher costs, they have no regrets. It is this基因 of fundamental R&D that has gradually allowed NIO to pull ahead of companies that "copy homework" in the long run. Beyond its hardcore technological investments, the aspect the industry once found most perplexing was NIO's steadfast commitment to battery swapping. Even during the company's most financially strained, "life-threatening" moments, NIO never wavered from its battery swap technology path. Li describes this strategy as "applying hard work" to cultivate user habits. This strategy is finally showing qualitative change at the million-unit scale. Swap stations are no longer just energy replenishment points; they constitute NIO's unique energy barrier. Li uses the fourteen-character maxim "build strong stockades, fight solid battles" to summarize this strategic resolve. Having crossed the million-unit threshold, NIO has not opted for radical expansion slogans. Looking towards 2026, Qin Lihong坦言 the company has no earth-shattering plans but will focus on better execution along the established path. Li said NIO now has no reason to be distracted; it simply aims to be the most down-to-earth company. It plans to achieve 40-50% growth annually going forward. While this isn't the aggressive doubling of before, he calculated that maintaining this pace would lead to 5 million units by 2035, a considerable figure. "The trick in the auto industry is that you cannot decline. If you decline, you lose a year, and it's very hard to climb back up afterwards," Li stated. According to his vision, NIO aims to accelerate and complete its second million-unit milestone in about seventeen or eighteen months. On the product front, NIO will fully transition to its third-generation technology platform by 2026. In the premium market, NIO will launch a new technology flagship SUV—the ES9. This model has already entered the manufacturing trial phase and is expected to be released in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the sub-brands Ledao and Firefly will shoulder the responsibility for scaling volume. Firefly, as a premium small car, has not only performed far beyond expectations in the Chinese market with consecutive months of growth but will also serve as NIO's vanguard brand for globalization, with plans to enter 40 countries. Li vividly compared Firefly to "Labubu," suggesting it will continuously generate buzz in the market through various special editions. To tap into broader market spaces, NIO will pursue channel下沉 through multi-brand synergy in 2026. Li pointed out that in tier-1 cities like those in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, Firefly's sales account for over 75%, but NIO still lags behind German premium brands (BBA) in provinces like Shandong, Henan, and Sichuan. To address this, NIO will launch "SKY comprehensive stores," integrating the NIO, Ledao, and Firefly brands under one roof. This model is particularly suited for下沉 markets like prefecture-level cities, significantly reducing operational costs and improving efficiency by sharing sales networks and after-sales resources. Infrastructure construction remains a top priority for NIO in 2026. As mid-to-high-end large vehicles like the Ledao L90 and the new ES8 become sales pillars, the market demands more from the energy system. Consequently, NIO plans to build 1,000 new swap stations in 2026, with the fifth-generation stations beginning large-scale deployment around April. Financially and in terms of growth targets, NIO has shown great confidence. Li expects to achieve profitability on a non-GAAP basis in the fourth quarter of 2025, noting that with increased deliveries of the higher-margin new ES8, the gross margin will stabilize above 20%. Li emphasized that at its current scale, NIO's pursuit is to continue increasing investment in R&D and infrastructure on a slightly profitable basis, making larger layouts for the future, rather than sacrificing long-term competitiveness for short-term profits. NIO's millionth delivery actually offers the Chinese automotive industry a unique perspective on the "endgame." Through the "battery swap model," Li has reconfigured the underlying logic of the auto industry. He compares the separation of car and battery to the operational model of the aviation industry: an aircraft's airframe and engines often have different lifespans; engines are often operated under leasing models requiring frequent maintenance, which is a major business. Applying the same logic, a car can last 15 years, but a battery's calendar life might only be 8 years. Once battery health drops below 70%, safety plummets. NIO's battery swapping solves the issues of battery safety and residual value throughout an EV's entire lifecycle, offering an ultimate solution to "battery anxiety" beyond ultra-fast charging. Facing an increasingly competitive market, Li proposed his "final stage" theory. He believes the automotive industry won't consolidate to just 3-5 players like the internet did; the Chinese market can accommodate at least 10 excellent car companies. He calculated further: China's auto market is vast, projected to reach 35 million units in the next decade. If each company can secure a share of 3.5 million units, that's enough to support 10 firms. Li believes that over the next ten years, as long as a company maintains its rhythm and avoids major mistakes, even starting with just a 1% market share provides an opportunity to grow into a giant through a long-distance race. From the 1st to the 1 millionth vehicle, NIO has taken the hardest path. This 1 million units not only signifies that NIO has survived but also that a Chinese premium pure-electric brand has truly gained a foothold through business model innovation and technological perseverance, without relying on foreign technology. But Li remains very clear-headed. He深知 that although NIO has reached the million-unit achievement, it is still a very small company in the broader automotive industry, holding only about a 1% share. The challenges faced by Li Auto after hitting 1 million units serve as a warning to all new automakers: 1 million units is not the finish line, nor even a safe zone; it is merely the starting line of the real competition. For NIO, the challenge of the next million units lies not in proving the model's viability, but in how to maintain the original intention of being a user enterprise while scaling up, and to continue挖掘 the glimmer of innovation during a period of technological convergence. Having chosen to do the "difficult yet right thing," it must accept that this is forever an endless marathon.