To The Moon

An agreement between the United States and Iran may be implemented more swiftly than initially anticipated.

According to a report from US media outlet Axios on Wednesday, Eastern Time, discussions are underway to potentially move the formal signing ceremony for the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) from its scheduled date this Friday to Wednesday. The primary motivation is to expedite the implementation process and facilitate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to normal maritime traffic. The report cites sources indicating that if an early signing is confirmed, the agreement could be finalized electronically, triggering the associated execution clauses.

This development suggests that one of the key geopolitical risks concerning global markets in recent weeks—the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—could be alleviated sooner than previously expected.

As reported by state media, following months of negotiations and mediation, the US and Iran recently reached a ceasefire MoU, with a formal signing planned for Friday, the 19th. The memorandum stipulates a 60-day negotiation period aimed at reaching a final agreement. US President Trump stated this Tuesday that the Strait of Hormuz would fully reopen this Friday, coinciding with the MoU signing, and that the text would be released formally, with expectations for rapid progress in the second phase of US-Iran talks.

Expert analysis cited by state media indicates the MoU primarily addresses four key issues: a ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's nuclear program, and the lifting of US economic sanctions on Iran. The most immediate and tangible outcome for the international community and the public is likely the reopening of the Strait. In other areas, the memorandum's impact is considered more limited.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for approximately one-fifth of global seaborne oil trade. Since the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, markets have been persistently concerned that blocked transit could lead to global energy supply tightness, contributing to significant volatility in international oil prices. As the US-Iran agreement enters its final signing phase, market focus is gradually shifting from the ceasefire itself to the speed of the strait's reopening, the scale of resumed Iranian crude oil exports, and the progress of subsequent nuclear negotiations.

US Media: Early Signing Aims to Expedite Implementation

The Axios report, citing informed sources, states that parties are considering rescheduling the formal signing ceremony, originally set for Friday in Switzerland, to Wednesday.

The report notes that the core reason for pushing an earlier date is not diplomatic protocol but a desire to quickly move the agreement into the execution phase. Under the discussed plan, the pact could be confirmed via electronic signature, thereby gaining more time for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, restoring energy transport, and subsequent diplomatic arrangements.

The report indicates the White House is considering the timing for releasing the full agreement text and may make the final version public around the time of the formal signing.

Citing diplomatic sources, the report states that discussions on accelerating the MoU's implementation timeline aim to reopen the Strait of Hormuz earlier than the original Friday target, as both US and Iranian sides have reportedly reached consensus on this issue.

The report suggests another potential reason for an early signing could be political pressure on the White House to release the MoU text. However, the cited sources state it was Iran that requested the text not be published before the formal signing, denying that the White House's actions were due to political pressure.

The report adds that even if the MoU is signed remotely via electronic means, a meeting between US Vice President Vance and the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, is still expected to proceed as originally planned on Friday.

Media Reports on Latest MoU Details Do Not Directly Mention Strait Reopening

According to state media, the 14-point MoU content disclosed by Bloomberg and Saudi Arabia's Al Arabiya on Tuesday, Eastern Time, does not directly mention "reopening the Strait of Hormuz." Relevant points include: the US will immediately lift its maritime blockade upon MoU signing; Iran will take immediate measures to ensure that within 30 days, two-way commercial vessel traffic through the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman returns to pre-war levels.

President Trump has repeatedly emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and be "permanently toll-free." However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani reiterated on the 15th that Iran would charge fees for shipping services in the Strait. Iranian officials have previously clarified that the charge would not be a transit toll but a service fee.

Compared to earlier circulated versions, the newly disclosed content provides clearer specifications on the mechanism and timeline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, indicating that restoring energy supply is one of the agreement's top priorities.

Subsequent 60-Day Nuclear Negotiations Key to Long-Term Agreement Sustainability

Based on the text content disclosed by state media, the MoU version exposed this Tuesday does not mention the disposal method for Iran's highly enriched uranium.

In this version, the main content related to Iran's nuclear issue includes: Iran reaffirms it will never manufacture nuclear weapons. Iran and the US agree that the disposition of enriched material and all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran's nuclear needs, will be properly addressed in the final agreement, which will confirm the provisions of this clause.

As per the text, the US and Iran will commence comprehensive nuclear negotiations within 60 days of signing the memorandum.

The MoU requires Iran to continue its commitment not to develop nuclear weapons and to maintain its current nuclear activity status until a final agreement is reached; the US commits to not imposing new sanctions during the negotiation period.

Future discussions will focus on the disposal of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, International Atomic Energy Agency verification mechanisms, long-term sanctions relief arrangements, and regional security issues.

Previous Axios reporting indicated these topics remain the most contentious parts under the current framework and are crucial in determining whether the temporary ceasefire arrangement can evolve into a long-term political solution.

Expert Analysis: Memorandum is a Principled Framework; Final Agreement Faces Multiple Challenges

Regarding whether this highly-watched MoU can ultimately translate into a long-term agreement, a state media article published Wednesday connected with several Middle East experts for analysis. Experts generally believe the current achievement is more of a principled political document rather than a final agreement resolving all differences.

Niu Xinchun, Director of the China-Arab States Research Institute at Ningxia University, pointed out that based on previous statements by US Vice President Vance and President Trump, this memorandum is only "one and a half pages" long, with many critical details not included in the formal text. Precisely because of this, both sides were able to reach consensus at the principle level, leaving the most contentious issues for subsequent negotiations. He believes that even if the text is formally published, a situation of "one memorandum, two different interpretations" is likely to occur.

Niu Xinchun considers that the current memorandum primarily revolves around four core issues: achieving a ceasefire, restoring Strait of Hormuz navigation, addressing Iran's nuclear program, and the US lifting sanctions on Iran. Among these, the first two are short-term objectives, while the latter two involve the most fundamental contradictions between the two sides over decades and are key to whether breakthroughs can be made in the upcoming 60-day negotiations.

Qin Tian, Deputy Director of the Middle East Institute at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, stated that the US and Iran's decision to reach a memorandum at this juncture is essentially a result of their respective strategic considerations. For the Trump administration, there is a need to quickly mitigate the impact of the Middle East situation on energy markets and US domestic politics; for Iran, resuming oil exports and alleviating economic pressure are also pressing practical needs. Therefore, both sides share common interests in a ceasefire and restoring shipping, but significant differences remain on deeper issues such as nuclear programs, sanctions relief, and regional security architecture.

Experts believe the comprehensive negotiations over the next two months will determine whether this memorandum is merely a transitional arrangement temporarily freezing the conflict or can evolve into a new framework similar to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. From a market perspective, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the resumption of Iranian crude oil exports may materialize relatively quickly. However, a long-term agreement involving nuclear issues and comprehensive sanctions relief still faces considerable uncertainty.