On January 14, Jin Fenglai stated that, against the backdrop of complex geopolitical conditions and intertwined inflation expectations, the precious metals market is experiencing an epic surge. Today, the COMEX February gold futures contract briefly hit a historic high of $4,644.00 per ounce, while silver performed even more aggressively, with the March futures contract soaring directly to a record high of $89.215 per ounce. Jin Fenglai noted that although gold prices experienced a brief technical pullback after the spike, narrowing to around $4,613.00, silver's single-day gain of over $3.5 fully illustrates that the demand for safe-haven assets has reached a peak level for this phase.
From a macroeconomic fundamental perspective, the US December CPI annual inflation rate settled at 2.7%, while core CPI remained at a multi-year low of 2.6%. Jin Fenglai indicated that although the inflation data largely met expectations and energy prices declined, dragged down by gasoline, the resilience in food costs and the stagnation in core inflation have left markets with lingering doubts about the future direction of monetary policy. Concurrently, the CME Group announced it would change the margin requirements for gold and silver futures from a fixed amount to a percentage of the nominal value. This regulatory change reflects a defensive posture by authorities towards the current high-volatility environment, as the percentage-based system can more intuitively capture the collateral required for market fluctuations.
Geopolitical turmoil is a primary driver boosting safe-haven premiums. Jin Fenglai stated that ongoing protests and localized conflicts within Iran have sparked widespread international concern, with tens of thousands arrested in the unrest and the death toll potentially far exceeding official reports. German Chancellor Merz commented that the regime's stability is precarious. Jin Fenglai believes that such risks of potential regime collapse will have profound effects on energy markets and the geopolitical landscape, thereby providing solid "safe-haven" support for gold and silver. Currently, crude oil prices have been pushed to a three-month high of $61.25 per barrel as a result.
On the technical front, the bullish target for February gold points towards the key resistance level at $4,750.00. Jin Fenglai noted that the current support level at $4,400.00 forms a solid defensive base, while today's high of $4,644.00 will be the primary short-term test. The bullish momentum for silver is even stronger, with a Wyckoff market rating as high as 9.5, indicating potential to break through the $90.00 mark. Jin Fenglai believes that as long as geopolitical tensions show no substantive easing and energy markets remain strong, the overall bull market structure for precious metals will be difficult to shake. Investors should closely monitor the psychological threshold of 94,500 for its signaling role in cross-market dynamics.
