A-shares displayed mixed performance today. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.47% to close at 4,182.59 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.20% to 14,465.79 points. Market turnover surpassed the 3 trillion yuan threshold, indicating significantly increased trading volume compared to the previous session. Geopolitical developments drove market movements as joint US-Israel military operations against Iran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz - a critical global energy trade route - triggering a substantial rise in international oil prices. Consequently, petroleum, energy, and precious metals sectors led the gains, while most other industries declined with over 4,200 stocks finishing lower.
Near-term Middle East tensions are expected to have limited impact on A-shares, with markets likely to refocus on fundamentals and policy dynamics after the initial shock. The traditional spring rally calendar effect may reappear this year. However, the pace of index gains might moderate, requiring increased attention to structural opportunities across sectors.
//// Directly catalyzed by geopolitical "black swan" events, the energy sector demonstrated particularly strong performance in today's A-share market. Escalating Middle East tensions and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz prompted a sharp surge in international oil prices, igniting bullish sentiment across domestic oil and gas industry chains. By market close, 石油ETF (561360) hit the daily upside limit with trading volume exceeding 3.6 billion yuan and extremely high turnover rates, reflecting strong consensus among investors regarding the sector's prospects.
This rally stems from the convergence of two key drivers: intense geopolitical conflict and attractive valuations with high dividends. From the supply perspective, the Strait of Hormuz serves as the global energy trade's choke point, and its disruption directly impacts approximately 20% of worldwide crude supply. This physical supply gap cannot be quickly compensated through alternative channels, providing substantial upward support for oil prices. Against the backdrop of heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, upstream resources with hedging attributes and inflation-hedging characteristics are becoming key allocation targets for major capital. Additionally, combined with OPEC+'s production pause and high US shale extraction costs, the oil and gas industry's strong momentum will likely persist in the near future.
This ETF tracks the CSI Oil & Gas Industry Index (H30198), covering industry leaders across the entire value chain from upstream exploration and production to midstream services/equipment and downstream petrochemicals/transportation. This comprehensive exposure enables the product to benefit not only from direct inventory revaluation during oil price increases but also from recovering equipment demand driven by capital expenditure growth, offering both offensive and defensive characteristics.
Looking ahead, as US-Iran hostilities continue, market expectations for oil prices are strengthening. Bloomberg estimates suggest oil could surge to $108/barrel under extreme scenarios where the Strait of Hormuz becomes blocked. Current market consensus anticipates oil establishing a new pricing phase around $80/barrel with wide fluctuations rather than a quick resolution. Investors should monitor oil price trends and conflict developments while remaining mindful of short-term volatility risks, maintaining attention to investment opportunities in 石油ETF (561360).
//// Approaching early March's Two Sessions, energy security and new productive forces have reemerged as frequent topics in capital markets, with power grid equipment sectors receiving concentrated policy support and capital inflows. Recent trading data shows sustained high sentiment in grid-related segments with ample capital absorption. Taking Grid ETF (561380) as an example, this ETF recorded net inflows exceeding 800 million yuan over the past five days, gaining nearly 8% during the post-holiday week.
The grid sector's continued strength primarily benefits from industry fundamental reshaping driven by synchronized domestic and international demand. Domestically, as policies for establishing a unified national power market system continue implementation, new power system construction is entering deeper transformation phases. Industry expectations remain positive for UHV, flexible transmission, and energy storage investment during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, with grid upgrades accelerating and creating firm order growth. Internationally, explosive AI computing demand has triggered structural electricity concerns across North America and other regions, driving massive spillover demand for core grid equipment like transformers and high-voltage switches. Leading Chinese companies with cost and technological advantages are experiencing rapid export order expansion, forming a dual-driven pattern combining domestic demand foundation and international demand profitability elasticity.
The International Energy Agency's recent report indicates average annual electricity demand growth will exceed 1,000 terawatt-hours over the next five years. Meeting 2030 electricity requirements necessitates 50% increases in annual grid investment while emphasizing grid system security and resilience. Goldman Sachs research further notes global grid investment will reach $12 trillion between 2025-2030. Leading grid sector companies project overseas revenue growth exceeding 20%, creating favorable resonance between current profit certainty and valuation attractiveness. Strong operating cash flows and steady net profit growth provide the grid equipment industry with comparative advantages in current structural markets.
Grid ETF (561380) covers complete industrial chains including power transmission, distribution equipment, UHV, and cables. This approach effectively reduces single-stock volatility from存量博弈 while focusing on industry leaders in high-growth segments. At the current convergence point of policy support, accelerating domestic demand, and sustained international AI electricity needs, the grid equipment sector's growth prospects remain promising. Investors may consider appropriate dollar-cost averaging opportunities in this ETF to capture long-term trends in global new power system development.
//// Today, defense and military sectors demonstrated strength driven by geopolitical escalation and Two Sessions policy expectations, with multiple core component stocks posting significant gains. The Wind Military Index rose 3.89%. Data shows continuous net inflows into Military ETF (512660) during the post-holiday week, exceeding 500 million yuan cumulative inflows, reflecting major capital's strong recognition of the sector's allocation value before important meeting windows.
From a micro-perspective, military sectors are experiencing simultaneous fundamental and valuation recovery. First, industry-wide performance inflection points have emerged. With 2026 marking the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the industry stands at the beginning of a new inventory cycle. Multiple broker reports indicate upstream enterprises already sense demand recovery as mid-term adjustments conclude and new orders materialize. Market consensus suggests defense and military sectors will maintain relatively high net profit compound growth rates over the next two years, demonstrating strong growth potential.
Second, increasingly complex global geopolitics, including US-Israel strikes against Iran and Iranian retaliation actions, heighten regional conflict concerns that may drive increased military procurement worldwide. Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, international geopolitical tensions have persisted, creating highly certain equipment upgrade demands. Simultaneously, rapid emergence of new combat domains like military AI, LEO satellite internet, and commercial aerospace are opening substantial second growth curves for the industry.
As a passive investment tool capturing overall industry opportunities, Military ETF closely tracks the CSI Defense Index, featuring focused coverage of industry leaders and complete value chains. The index rigorously selects representative listed companies controlled by core military groups with highly relevant main businesses, comprehensively covering key segments including aviation equipment, aerospace, shipbuilding, and military electronics. Its top ten holdings include industry pillars like China State Shipbuilding, AECC Aviation Power, and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, demonstrating strong industry representation. For investors bullish on long-term national defense development logic, current sector positioning within growth cycles and sustained net capital inflows maintain favorable medium-to-long-term allocation value. Investors may consider appropriate attention to Military ETF (512660), potentially participating rationally in new high-end manufacturing industry dividends through phased dollar-cost averaging.
//// Today, GTJA Gold ETF (518800) rose 4.39% while Gold Stock ETF (517400) gained 8.71%.
Geopolitically, escalating Middle East tensions highlighted gold's safe-haven attributes. On February 28, joint US-Israel large-scale military strikes against Iran prompted immediate countermeasures from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which launched numerous missiles and drones toward Israeli territory and US bases across the Middle East, rapidly escalating into regional military confrontation. Iranian Revolutionary Guard statements suggested "historically most intensive offensive operations" were imminent, while Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani stated on March 2 that no negotiations would occur with the US. The Strait of Hormuz reached standstill with over 100 oil tankers stranded nearby. Suddenly intensified Middle East conflicts triggered safe-haven shifts, driving capital into precious metals sectors.
Tariff developments saw Trump strongly defending comprehensive tariff and protectionist policies, invoking Section 122 to impose 10%-15% global tariffs. Economically, January core PPI unexpectedly rebounded to 3.6% year-over-year (versus 3% expectations). Indiscriminate high tariffs may fuel US inflation while unpredictable tariff policies continuously inject geopolitical uncertainty, further activating safe-haven characteristics.
Regarding Fed rate cuts, policy divergences increase volatility but cannot alter long-term real interest rate decline trends. Clear differentiation exists within the Fed: Waller emphasized employment dependence, Chicago and Boston Fed presidents favored maintaining status quo, while Governor Milan supported cumulative 100bp cuts by 2026. Medium-term, tariff-driven cost inflation may erode corporate profits and suppress economic growth, maintaining downward real interest rate trajectories.
Looking forward, short-term conflict expansion could push gold and silver prices higher through safe-haven flows, though investors should remain alert for profit-taking at highs and diplomatic mediation potentially cooling safe-haven sentiment. However, gold's long-term trend remains solid. Against monetary oversupply and fiscal deficit monetization backgrounds, dollar credit systems face challenges combined with frequent global geopolitical turbulence promoting asset reserve diversification, continuously boosting safe-haven asset demand. Global "de-dollarization" trends position gold as a potential new pricing anchor, maintaining upward momentum for precious metals.
The supporting logic of "Fed rate cut cycles + intensified international uncertainty + global de-dollarization trends" for gold prices remains intact. Investors may maintain attention to investment opportunities in GTJA Gold ETF (518800) and Gold Stock ETF (517400).
//// Dividend SOE ETF (510720) advanced 2.18% today.
Short-term events influenced performance as US-Iran conflicts caused Strait of Hormuz shipping standstills, with multiple global oil companies suspending vessel passages. Approximately 20% of global oil and liquid fuel trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Near-term US-Iran escalation may push oil prices higher rapidly. Energy sectors as significant dividend segment components directly drove dividend sector gains.
Deeper logic reveals that amid declining growth trajectories and normalized lower interest rates, assets providing stable cash flows demonstrate increasing scarcity. Long-term capital market entry policies continue implementation, directly expanding insurance fund equity allocation space and enhancing marginal demand for dividend assets. New National Nine Articles strengthen cash dividend supervision and incentives, combined with implemented central enterprise valuation management requirements, reinforcing long-term valuation reshaping logic.
Forward-looking perspectives suggest short-term Strait of Hormuz navigation risks and pre/post-Two Sessions "anti-involution" policy expectations will continue supporting price increase narratives, with energy SOEs' profit stability and high dividend advantages offering both defensive and offensive attributes. Medium-to-long-term, against declining risk-free interest rate backdrops, insurance funds, social security, and other long-term capital allocation demand for dividend assets persists, maintaining dividend strategies' core allocation logic. However, investors should remain vigilant regarding high oil price volatility and style rotation risks. Dividend SOE ETF (510720) and Cash Flow ETF (159399) enable monthly dividend evaluations, warranting continued attention.
