While Amazon.com has produced astonishing growth in recent quarters, the stock has been stuck in neutral, up just 4% for the year to date, trailing the broad market by almost 10 percentage points. Some analysts believe the underperformance provides an opportunity for investors.
Jefferies analyst Brent Thill on Wednesday designated Amazon (ticker: AMZN) shares a Franchise Pick, repeating a Buy rating and target of $4,200 for the stock price. On Wednesday, Amazon shares were up 0.95%, to $3,415.25.
He wrote in a research note that Amazon is likely to benefit from both increased e-commerce adoption and faster growth at higher-margin cloud and advertising businesses. The stock’s recent performance leaves it at a discount of about 10% discount to historical norms in terms of its multiple of forward earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, he noted.
Although investors have shifted away from some of the pandemic-era winners, and concerns remain that e-commerce growth will slow as retail stores return to more normal operations, Thill said Amazon’s outlook is arguably better than ever.
Behavioral changes resulting from the pandemic have led to a permanent increase in e-commerce adoption, Thill said. He also said growth at Amazon Web Services and in advertising will more than offset any near-term slowdown in the core retail business resulting from comparisons with high pandemic-era sales.
Thill said a proprietary survey of about 700 U.S. adults about their shopping habits found that 60% are spending more online since the pandemic began. And 63% of that group say they are continuing to do so even now that restrictions have been lifted. “Amazon is a clear standout,” he said, with 77% of consumers continuing to spend more on the site since restrictions were lifted.
In designating Amazon a Franchise Pick, Thill removed that status for Alphabet (GOOGL). He said that while he continues to like Alphabet shares, the 39% rally in the stock this year leaves it as a 10% premium to its historical average.
Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth on Wednesday did a deep dive on Amazon Prime, and reported that the service, priced at $119 a year, delivers about $1,000 a year of value. That includes not just free delivery of many products sold on Amazon, in some instances on the same day, but also Amazon Prime Video, Prime Music, and grocery delivery from both Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods.
He noted that the company has been investing heavily in content for Amazon Prime, including the pending MGM acquisition and buying the rights to stream Thursday Night Football, while also expanding its podcast offerings on Amazon Music. The company has also added Amazon Key, a service for in-garage delivery in more than 5,000 U.S. cities.
Anmuth said Amazon hasn’t increased the price of Prime since 2018, when it raised the rate to $119 a year, from $99. He thinks a price increase could come as early as the second half of 2021.
The number of Prime subscribers will rise to 237.5 million in 2021 from 200 million last year as more people overseas sign up, Anmuth predicted. He said Amazon could boost its international subscribers by more than 50 million in current markets and that there are many more markets the company could add over time. He estimates the 2021 subscriber count will include about 91.9 million in the U.S. and 145.6 million internationally.
Anmuth repeated his Overweight rating and $4,600 price target on Amazon shares.