Gold markets have remained the central focus of global finance this week, with international gold prices repeatedly hitting new historic highs under the dominance of safe-haven sentiment, once approaching $4,720, showcasing a classic pattern of "risk-driven appreciation." From a macro perspective, the strength in gold prices is not attributable to a single factor but is the result of multiple uncertainties fermenting simultaneously.
Firstly, geopolitical risks have intensified once again. Former US President Donald Trump recently revived tariff threats, explicitly stating that new trade measures against European allies could be implemented as early as February 1st. The scope and intensity of these measures exceed prior market expectations. The European Union has issued a firm response, signaling that if the US proceeds, it would consider deploying previously unused economic countermeasures. This stance has quickly reignited market concerns about a recurrence of transatlantic trade friction, leading to a clear cooling of global risk appetite.
Simultaneously, the Russia-Ukraine conflict shows new signs of escalation. Russia has launched intensive drone and missile attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, causing widespread blackouts across multiple regions. Occurring during a sensitive period of severe cold weather overlapping with peak electricity demand, these attacks not only exacerbate concerns about European energy security but also reinforce market pricing for the risks of a prolonged and potentially widening conflict. Against this backdrop, despite a temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East and a cooling of domestic unrest in Iran, these developments are insufficient to reverse the overall risk environment. Global capital continues to flow out of high-risk assets and into traditional safe havens like gold, constituting a core driver behind gold's relentless ascent to new peaks.
Concurrently, a weakening US dollar has provided crucial financial condition support for the rise in gold prices. Markets have recently revived discussions around the "Sell America" trade logic, suggesting that international capital is temporarily reducing its allocation weight to US dollar assets amid rising trade friction, political uncertainty, and debates over fiscal prospects. Although discussions surrounding the Federal Reserve Chair nomination have led markets to scale back expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts in 2026, the US dollar has not gained significant support from this shift. The US Dollar Index has retreated consecutively after touching a recent high, indicating a diminishing safe-haven appeal for the dollar, which objectively enhances the relative attractiveness of dollar-denominated gold.
From a technical structure perspective, gold continues to trade within a clear and stable upward channel, with its medium-term trend remaining intact. Prices have been rising consistently from above the channel's median line, showing accelerated upward momentum recently, indicating that bullish forces still dominate. Chart analysis shows that after breaking through its previous consolidation range, the price has successfully stabilized in the upper half of the channel. Short-term highs have reached the first resistance zone around $4,709–$4,720. This area, coinciding with previous highs and resistance from the channel's upper boundary, has become a key battleground for bulls and bears. Near this level, the potential for technical consolidation or a pullback for confirmation exists. Should a short-term correction occur, significant support lies around $4,596, a level corresponding to the channel's median line and the previously broken consolidation platform. A successful stabilization upon any retest of this level would maintain the overall upward structure, setting the stage for subsequent advances.
Looking at potential trend extensions, if the price effectively absorbs selling pressure above $4,700 and completes a sideways consolidation, a further challenge towards the upper resistance zone around $4,816 cannot be ruled out. This level corresponds to higher-timeframe channel targets and potential extension space driven by sentiment. Overall, as long as the price remains within the ascending channel and does not decisively break below the key $4,596 support, gold's medium-term trend is biased towards oscillating gains. The current phase is more indicative of strong consolidation at high levels rather than a trend reversal, with short-term volatility primarily dependent on changes in risk sentiment and disruptions to market expectations from macro events.
Looking ahead, market focus this week will shift to the US PCE price index and related macroeconomic data. As the Federal Reserve's most-watched inflation gauge, this data will directly impact market interest rate expectations and the US dollar's trajectory, thereby influencing gold's short-term fluctuation rhythm. In summary, the current rise in gold prices reflects the risk premium associated with heightened global uncertainty more than pure economic fundamentals or interest rate logic. Until clear signals of easing emerge in the global political, trade, and geopolitical landscape, gold's safe-haven attributes will continue to be repriced. However, near historic highs, strategies involving chasing the rally require increased attention to timing and risk control.
