The implementation of the halved purchase tax policy for new energy vehicles and the adjusted extension of the "Two New" subsidy policies have introduced new variables for the domestic automotive market in 2026. Against this backdrop, the 2026 sales targets disclosed by several automakers reveal distinctly divergent trajectories—traditional automakers, still undergoing a comprehensive intelligent and electric transformation while burdened with substantial legacy assets from the ICE era and a large sales base, have generally set relatively cautious growth targets, whereas new EV makers exhibit more optimistic market estimates. Among them, Leapmotor and Xiaomi Auto, which both exceeded their 2025 KPIs, have set target increases for this year of 68% and 34% respectively; NIO, aiming to achieve full-year profitability in 2026, has also set an ambitious annual target increase of 40-50%.
After achieving its upwardly revised full-year 2025 target, Geely Auto has set its current year's target at 3.45 million vehicles, representing a 14% growth rate, making it the automaker with the highest disclosed sales target for 2026 so far. This breaks down to 2.75 million vehicles for the Geely brand, 300,000 for Zeekr, and 400,000 for Lynk & Co. In the new energy sector, Geely Auto is targeting sales of 2.22 million vehicles in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 32%, indicating its new energy penetration rate will rise from 55.8% last year to 64.3%.
Dongfeng Motor Group, currently holding the second-highest sales target, has not disclosed its full-year 2025 sales data, but based on cumulative sales of 2.204 million vehicles in the first 11 months, its total 2025 sales are estimated at approximately 2.5 million vehicles. As Dongfeng's proprietary new energy brand, Voyah delivered a cumulative 150,169 vehicles in 2025, an 87% increase year-on-year; M-Hero sold a cumulative 10,228 vehicles, surging 387% year-on-year; and eπ Technology sold a cumulative 275,752 vehicles, up 28% year-on-year. Driven by these three brands, Dongfeng Group's cumulative new energy vehicle sales reached 1.04 million, a 21% increase. Simultaneously, cumulative sales of its proprietary brands exceeded 1.5 million vehicles, growing over 9% year-on-year and accounting for more than 60% of total sales. Dongfeng Group has set a target of 3.25 million total vehicle sales for 2026, implying a target growth rate potentially exceeding 30%. This includes 1.7 million new energy vehicles, a 63% increase, and 600,000 exports, targets considered relatively aggressive compared to other traditional automakers.
Chery Group has set a 2026 target of 3.2 million vehicles, a 14% increase over 2025. Its five brands under Chery Auto are expected to achieve a sales target of 3 million vehicles, also a 14% growth. In 2025, Chery Group cumulatively sold 2.806 million vehicles, up 7.8% year-on-year, with Chery Auto itself selling 2.631 million vehicles for the full year, an 8% increase.
Great Wall Motor, which has failed to meet its annual targets for several consecutive years, has lowered the performance assessment targets for its 2026 employee stock ownership plan. It reduced the 2026 vehicle sales target from the original plan of not less than 2.49 million vehicles to not less than 1.8 million vehicles, representing a 36% increase over last year's actual sales; the net profit target (not less than RMB 10 billion) remains unchanged. Data shows Great Wall Motor sold 1.324 million vehicles cumulatively in 2025, with 404,000 being new energy vehicles. Compared to the 2025 sales target of 4 million vehicles set by Chairman Wei Jianjun in 2021, the company achieved only about 30% of the goal in 2025, with new energy vehicles accounting for less than 30% of sales. The industry widely believes that Great Wall Motor's strategy of sacrificing some volume to protect profits has led to another downward revision of its sales target.
As the new energy vehicle maker that led monthly sales for ten consecutive months in 2025, Leapmotor delivered 597,000 vehicles cumulatively last year, a 103.1% year-on-year increase, setting a new annual sales record for NEV startups. While disclosing its 2025 results, Leapmotor Chairman Zhu Jiangming reiterated the 2026 delivery target, "Looking ahead to 2026, we aim to challenge the one million sales mark. In terms of products, new models from the A-series and D-series will be launched successively."
Following the strong sales of its second model, the Xiaomi YU7, which helped achieve cumulative sales of 410,000 vehicles last year, Xiaomi Group Chairman Lei Jun announced the 2026 sales target for Xiaomi Auto as 550,000 vehicles during a live stream in early January, representing an increase of over 30% compared to last year's actual sales. On January 7th, Xiaomi announced that the new-generation SU7 is expected to launch in April 2026, with a pre-sale price starting from RMB 225,900. The new-generation Xiaomi SU7 comes standard across all variants with flagship-level advanced driver-assistance system hardware, including lidar, 4D imaging radar, and a chip with 700 TOPS computing power. In terms of range, the standard version's range has been upgraded to 720 km, the Max version to 835 km, and the Pro version reaches 902 km.
"Our 2026 sales target is to maintain a steady growth rate of 40%-50% and improve the quality of growth," revealed NIO Chairman William Li during the ceremony for the 1 millionth mass-produced vehicle on January 6th, indicating this year's target growth range. Given NIO's cumulative 2025 sales of 326,000 vehicles, this implies a 2026 sales target between 456,000 and 489,000 vehicles. "Industry competition is fierce every year, but last year's measures against 'involute' competition were significantly effective, which boosts our confidence for this year's development. Additionally, the early introduction of the replacement subsidy policy this year has played a positive role," Li stated regarding the optimistic growth forecast. He also mentioned that NIO will launch several new models in 2026, including the NIO ES9 and Onvo L80.
On December 30, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Implementing Large-Scale Equipment Renewal and Old-for-New Consumer Goods Policy in 2026," which will continue to support vehicle scrapping-for-renewal and vehicle replacement-for-renewal. This policy has counteracted the impact of the halved purchase tax policy for new energy vehicles, becoming a "ballast stone" for stable growth in this year's automotive market. "The subsidy policy exceeded expectations and is conducive to a smooth policy transition and promoting consumption upgrades. Due to adjustments in subsidy timing across regions, the car market experienced relative stagnation at the end of last year, but this issue is expected to be effectively resolved in 2026," said Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association. He forecasts that the 2026 car market will show a "low first, high later" trend, achieving a favorable start to the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. "Previously, it was expected that next year's policies might contract, potentially leading to negative market growth, but in 2026, due to strong national policy support, overall sales growth will be better," Cui judged, predicting that the overall growth rate of the 2026 car market will be above zero growth, with January likely to see a "strong start."
