• Snap(NYSE:SNAP)tumbled 10.2%today, hitting its lowest point in over a year - ever since the stock jumped in October 2020 after that quarterly earnings report showed some upbeat user growth. (Check out the two-year chart here.)
• Today's fall came courtesy of Cowen, which downgraded the stock to Market Perform and slashed its target to $45 from $75. Thanks to the slide today, the new target now implies 17% upside from here.
• The firm downgraded the social-media camera company due to expectations that the impact of last year's Apple iOS 14.5 privacy changes isn't going away anytime soon. Its survey of ad buyers shows 63% expect targeting and measurement challenges to linger for at least six months, and 39% expect slower or declining ad-spend growth this year.
• The Apple changes have produced a sharp turnaround in Cowen's new take. A year ago, an upbeat outlook for digital ads saw it boost its price target to $62 amid"stable to rising" pricing and solid engagement. And in April, it hiked its target to $88 based on the trends it saw play out in last year's first quarter.
• Cowen's departing here from a generally Bullish Wall Street; Seeking Alpha contributors are Neutral on Snap. And SA's proprietary quant ratings are Bearish on Snap, with low grades for Profitability, Momentum and (especially) valuation.
• Yesterday, Barclays suggested its most out-of-consensus call on the digital ad space was that Snap could surprise to the upside (despite an industry-high multiple on Enterprise Value-to-revenue).