The stock market could keep rising to new heights this summer, at least until the big test of Nvidia ’s earnings due at the end of August, according to the JPMorgan trading desk.
The Wall Street firm said it remains “tactically bullish” even after the 30% rebound in the S & P 500 off its low on April 7, culminating in the benchmark stock index reaching consecutive record highs last week.
“We continue to find evidence for our bullish hypothesis: (i) resilient macro data; (ii) positive earnings growth; (iii) thawing trade war rhetoric,” JPMorgan’s trading desk said in a note to clients Monday.
“This week we are focused on July nonfarm payrolls and MegaCap Tech earnings.”
SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 year to date Several events this week have the potential to move markets, including the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday; the July jobs report and President Donald Trump’s tariff deadline on Friday; as well as earnings from Meta Platforms and Microsoft on Wednesday and Amazon and Apple on Thursday. Investors have cheered resilient economic growth and corporate profits even in the face of higher tariffs.
A highly anticipated trade deal announced between the U.S. and the European Union over the weekend provided further relief on Monday. Additionally, Trump said the global baseline tariff for countries that have not renegotiated trade agreements with the U.S. will likely range between 15% to 20%.
JPMorgan believes the market is likely to continue moving higher, at least until Nvidia’s earnings on Aug. 28, which could prove a catalyst for a sell-off. Nvidia is coming off a nine-week winning streak after bouncing more than 80% from its 2025 low in early April.
“NVDA earnings may be a sell-the-news event, cueing the market to take a breather into seasonal weakness,” the JPMorgan traders said. “This century, August has been a flat month, September the worst month of the year followed by Q4, which is the strongest quarter of the year.”