During Wednesday's Asian trading session, spot gold (XAU/USD) climbed to around $4,835 per ounce, extending its recent strong momentum and setting the stage to once again刷新 a new all-time high.
Amid a simultaneous increase in political and economic uncertainty, the appeal of gold as a traditional safe-haven asset has notably strengthened, leading to continuous capital inflows into the precious metals market. One key focus for market participants is a speech by the US President at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
Prior to this, escalating tensions between the United States and Europe concerning Greenland have significantly boosted market避险 sentiment. Reports indicate that the US has issued tariff threats against some European nations, while movements within the European Parliament suggest a potential suspension of the approval process for a related trade agreement.
These developments have intensified market concerns about a deterioration in transatlantic relations, which is favorable for the performance of safe-haven assets like gold in the short term. Against this backdrop, the recent rise in gold prices is largely driven by sentiment and risk premium.
Should the related tensions escalate further, the demand for allocations into safe assets is expected to continue increasing, thereby providing additional support for gold prices in the near term. However, from a macro-financial perspective, gold's upward trajectory is not without resistance.
As US labor market data continues to signal improvement, the market has significantly scaled back its expectations for near-term interest rate cuts. Trading dynamics show that market expectations for the timing of the next rate cut have been pushed back to mid-year, with the pace of easing anticipated to be more moderate throughout the year.
Against the backdrop of expectations that interest rates may remain higher for longer, the US dollar has found support, which exerts some downward pressure on gold, a non-yielding asset.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart for gold still exhibits a clear bullish structure. The price is steadily trading within a primary ascending channel, with the moving average system showing a bullish alignment, indicating the medium-term trend remains upward. Repeated pullbacks have found support near short-term moving averages, suggesting that dip-buying activity remains active.
Regarding momentum indicators, the daily RSI is operating in a high zone. While no clear bearish divergence signal has emerged, it does reflect some short-term overbought characteristics. This implies that after consecutive rallies, gold prices may face a need for a phase of consolidation or a technical correction.
If the price can maintain consolidation within the high range and complete digestion, the overall upward trend is still likely to continue. Conversely, once避险 sentiment cools, short-term volatility could potentially amplify.
"In the current environment,避险 demand driven by geopolitical tensions provides strong support for gold prices, but the high-interest-rate environment remains a significant factor limiting gold's medium-term upside potential," according to a market analyst's view.
The current gold price movement exhibits characteristics of a typical 'sentiment-driven rally.' US-Europe tensions provide a short-term catalyst, but from a medium-term perspective, the path of US monetary policy remains the key variable determining the trend's magnitude.
In a landscape where避险 demand and high-interest-rate expectations pull against each other, gold is more likely to maintain a state of high-level fluctuation and强势 consolidation. Close attention should be paid to changes in避险 sentiment and potential re-adjustments in market expectations for Federal Reserve policy, as these will influence the price rhythm of gold.
