RabBird
Is it a rabbit, or is it a bird? Is the market bullish or bearish? Follow me and my analysis!
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$MSFT 20260618 480.0 PUT$ Market and investors punish heavily when expectations miss. AI infrastructure spending is high and investors expect lofty returns. A lowered guidance is a big red flag. With the cracks now starting to appear, how prepare d are you for a market downturn? Seasoned investors limit their exposures by hedging, don't be the one caught out in the cold.
$UNH 20260618 300.0 PUT$ First up on the chopping table, UnitedHealth. Defensive. High-quality. Everyone’s “sleep-well-at-night” stock. Earnings out — stock plunges. That alone is a warning. But here’s where it gets uncomfortable. At the same time: • Semiconductors are no longer reacting well to good news • Rallies are getting sold into • Leadership is narrowing, not expanding This is not random. This is late-cycle behaviour. In healthy markets: • Defensives protect capital • Cyclicals lead • Good earnings get rewarded In late-cycle markets: • Defensives break • Cyclicals lose forgiveness • Even strong numbers fail to save price That’s exactly what we’re seeing. Healthcare cracks. Semis stall. Volatility refuses to die. T
$SMCI 20260618 40.0 PUT$ stagflation is here and the fed is printing money. They are just not explicitly saying it. watch your step, it's six feet down ⚠️
$ORCL 20260320 280.0 PUT$ 🐯 Oracle’s $10B Data Center “On Hold” — AI Narrative Meets Credit Reality Reuters just reported Oracle’s $10B Michigan data center is now in limbo after Blue Owl (its biggest data center partner) won’t back the deal, citing concerns around Oracle’s rising debt and AI spending. Here’s the real takeaway: ✅ AI demand is real ❌ AI financing isn’t free anymore Why this matters • This isn’t a “chip shortage” problem — it’s a funding problem. When the lender gets cautious, the buildout slows. • Tech is overheated without clear ROI. Credit markets don’t buy vibes — they buy cashflow. • Higher rates = longer payback period. The “infinite AI capex” story breaks the moment financing terms tighten. What I’m
AI Cracks Deepen: $Broadcom(AVGO)$
$ORCL 20260320 280.0 PUT$ 🐯 Oracle Earnings: Tiny Miss, Big Warning for the AI Trade Oracle’s latest earnings weren’t a blow-up, but the reaction was: • Revenue slightly missed expectations. • Cloud & AI (OCI) still grew strongly, but not “wow” enough for the hype. • Stock got smacked ~10–15% in a day. That tells you one thing: AI leaders are now priced for perfection. Anything less = punishment. On top of that: • AI data center capex is exploding, • Debt is piling up, • We’re in a higher-rate world – funding that AI arms race isn’t free anymore. So what’s the takeaway? • AI demand is real, but the trade is fragile. • Market has shifted from “AI story” → “show me the numbers now.” • Crowded AI names are one small mis
$MSFT 20260618 480.0 PUT$ 📉 ADP Jobs Decline – Why “Bad News = Good News” Might Be the Biggest Trap Right Now Everyone is cheering today’s ADP print like it’s bullish — “jobs fell = Fed will cut = stocks go up.” But honestly… this is the exact kind of surface-level optimism that blindsides retail right before the rug gets pulled. Here’s the bigger picture most are ignoring: 1️⃣ A decline of 32,000 private payrolls isn’t “good” — it’s a signal. Hiring is slowing, wage growth is cooling, and multiple sectors are showing fatigue. If the labour market weakens too fast, it doesn’t trigger a gentle Fed pivot… it triggers recession hedging. 2️⃣ Rate cuts that come because of weakness have never been bullish initially. Every maj
$MSFT 20260618 480.0 PUT$ MSFT puts today 💰 But honestly… this Thanksgiving pump is looking more like a bull trap than a true reversal. Over the past week, the market has been pricing in a rate cut narrative again — yet nothing has fundamentally changed: • Fed officials remain data-driven, and the latest data doesn’t justify a cut. • Inflation isn’t convincingly down, labor remains tight, and growth prints are still solid. • If the Fed is genuinely following the numbers, the probability of a near-term cut should be very low — but markets chose to reprice optimism anyway. That disconnect is exactly why my bear/put thesis still stands. What’s even more interesting today: 📉 Volume is extremely low — a sharp contrast to the
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50% YoY increase in revenue from AI sounds good… or is it not? Baidu reported that its AI-powered businesses grew over 50% year-on-year, reaching about RMB 10B this quarter. That sounds impressive, and it shows that AI is becoming a bigger part of Baidu’s business — roughly one-third of total revenue now. But here’s the catch: Baidu’s free cash flow was –RMB 4.7B earlier this year, and the company clearly said this was “primarily due to increased investment in AI.” This means the AI growth isn’t free — Baidu is spending heavily on servers, GPUs, and data centres. In other words, revenue is rising, but cash is still flowing out faster than it’s coming in. When you compare the ~RMB 3.4B increase in AI revenue to the estimated RMB 20–35B Baidu is likely spending on AI infrastructure, the shor
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Baidu’s AI revenue jumped 50% YoY to ~RMB 10B, which sounds great, but the full picture is more mixed — the company also reported –RMB 4.7B free cash flow earlier this year mainly due to heavy AI infrastructure spending. So while AI is now a third of Baidu’s revenue, the short-term ROI isn’t strong yet because the cash outlay (servers, GPUs, data centres) is far larger than the revenue gained. In short: solid growth, but still very capital-intensive — more of a long-term bet than immediate profit engine.
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$AMZN 20260417 215.0 PUT$ 🚨 Is the AI Bubble Already Here? Amazon Might Have Just Confirmed It. 🚨 👉 Amazon just did something it hasn’t done in three years — it went to the bond market to borrow money. They’re issuing debt in up to six parts, including a 40-year bond, to raise cash for “general corporate purposes.” That sounds normal… until you look at the bigger picture. Here’s why this matters: • Big tech companies are spending massively on AI. • Data centers, chips, and infrastructure cost billions. • But the ROI is still unclear. • Cash levels are going down. • So companies are now borrowing to stay ahead in the AI race. 🚂 This is how bubbles form: Everyone spends because everyone else is spending — not because the r
$NBIS 20260618 80.0 PUT$ NovemBEAR has arrived 🐻📉 I’ve been preparing for a bear market for a while now — tightening risk, trimming exposure, and keeping an eye on the cracks forming beneath the shiny surface. And now November shows up living up to its name… NovemBEAR. But here’s the real debate: Are we entering an actual bear season 🐻❄️… or just going through a healthy correction 🔧📉? Right now, I’m leaning towards the latter. Even though Michael Burry closed down Scion Asset Management, I still share many of the same concerns he’s been beating the drum about: • AI concentration is reaching uncomfortable levels 🤖🔥 A handful of mega-caps are carrying the entire market. When leadership becomes that narrow, the whole structu
$ORCL 20260320 280.0 PUT$ Heat is turning up, stocks are melting down.
$SMCI 20260618 40.0 PUT$ 📉 Market Alert: Is the AI Bubble Closer Than You Think? Recent headlines are flashing caution for overheated tech and semiconductor stocks: • SMCI (Supermicro) cut its revenue guidance recently, warning of near-term weakness in the AI/data-centre supply chain. • Tesla’s mixed news (delivery miss, regulatory scrutiny) raises broader questions about growth-tech valuations. • The SOXX (Semiconductor Index) trades near 10× Price-to-Sales, a level similar to the dot-com bubble era. • Macro risks loom large: U.S. government shutdown, tariffs and China trade tensions, higher-for-longer interest rates — all impose pressure on high-multiple growth. • Historical data: Mid-term election years tend to sh
🚀🚀$MRVL 20251121 90.0 CALL$ 🚀🚀 The 2 previous posts we shared on MRVL have played out exactly as anticipated — from the breakout above $86.5 to the strong surge past $90. Today, the stock has tested support and is holding firm, setting the stage for the next leg higher. With buyers defending key levels and momentum still strong, MRVL looks poised to continue its upside run. Traders and investors should keep an eye on $88.5–89 as support and $91+ as the next target zone. 🐂 Bull Case • Momentum continuation: MRVL cleared $90~ intraday, showing strong buyer conviction. 🐻 Bear Case Momentum drops: MRVL drops to $85 range~ with panic selling. MRVL is in a strong breakout regime, but near-term profit-taking and options ex
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