RabBird
12-11

$ORCL 20260320 280.0 PUT$ 

🐯 Oracle Earnings: Tiny Miss, Big Warning for the AI Trade

Oracle’s latest earnings weren’t a blow-up, but the reaction was:

• Revenue slightly missed expectations.

• Cloud & AI (OCI) still grew strongly, but not “wow” enough for the hype.

• Stock got smacked ~10–15% in a day.

That tells you one thing:

AI leaders are now priced for perfection. Anything less = punishment.

On top of that:

• AI data center capex is exploding,

• Debt is piling up,

• We’re in a higher-rate world – funding that AI arms race isn’t free anymore.

So what’s the takeaway?

• AI demand is real, but the trade is fragile.

• Market has shifted from “AI story” → “show me the numbers now.”

• Crowded AI names are one small miss away from a big de-rating.

Good time to be picky on AI, watch capex vs free cash flow, and remember:

when one “AI pillar” stumbles and the whole basket wobbles, that’s not strength – that’s narrative stress.

Long term bull, but a bear is starting to show up in the foreseeable future.

Modified in.12-12
Oracle Deepens AI Anxiety: Will It Accelerate the Sell-Off?
Oracle reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results after the market closed on Wednesday, with revenue and cloud revenue both falling short of analyst expectations. The company also posted –$10 billion in free cash flow for the quarter. At the same time, Oracle raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance, saying it now expects to spend about $15 billion more than previously planned. These updates triggered a sharp reaction in the market — Oracle’s share price plunged more than 10%.
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Comments

  • Mortimer Arthur
    12-12 16:24
    Mortimer Arthur
    I know it's small compared to the whole AI bet but I think the TikTok investment could also be huge and a lot of people are missing that.

    • RabBirdReplyRabBird: 
      That’s a warning sign about how stretched the system is, not a sign of healthy, organic demand. With JGB most possibly hiking rates next week, liquidity out-flow is expected of the US, as investors move to higher yielding assets. Right now, everyone needs money from the same pot.
    • RabBird: 
      I’m more concerned about stagflation. The macro economic situation does not bode well. the Fed and Treasury are increasingly relying on buybacks and balance sheet expansion to keep yields in check, suggesting that the market wants ever-higher yields to absorb all this debt.
    • RabBird: 
      The pot is limited, but everyone wants to draw from it. And the only way to do so is to offer higher yield for bonds. I foresee bonds offering 6-8% yields or potentially higher if this continues, making old bonds worth less.
  • Enid Bertha
    12-12 16:22
    Enid Bertha
    Oracle needs MARA’s energy to build data centers. backed by it’s bitcoin hoard

    • RabBird: 
      I share the same approach as you that power Center will be equally important. However, the current macro economic situation does not seem to be pointing towards “growth” and there’s likelyhood of companies going under. I would take a cautious wait and see approach for a “reset” before I go in again.
  • JackQuant
    12-12 14:46
    JackQuant
    Nice conclusion!
    • RabBird: 
      Thank you for your kind words, I hope you find my post insightful.
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