Back in June, I was looking for one final W5 push higher before the larger cycle correction. We got it. Now the picture is changing. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is starting to reverse, while the bearish SMT with $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ remains intact. More importantly, I can now count the advance in multiple ways that point to the same conclusion: The rally may be complete. That shifts my focus completely. I’m no longer looking for the next breakout. I’m watching for the reset. 🎯 Target zone: 7,200–6,900 📉 Potential correction: roughly 8–10% ⏳ Time frame: the next couple of months The interesting part is that this setup is developing as the broader market enters a much more uncertain September. Rising yields, inflation

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ just printed the bearish SMT I’ve been waiting for. But I’m still not shorting blindly. The divergence is the warning.The daily close below 7681 is the confirmation. Today’s pullback also created a new bullish Daily FVG, which gives us a very clean line in the sand. If $SPX closes below 7681, that FVG flips into an iFVG and I’ll treat it as the trigger for the next move lower. That would change the structure from: bearish divergence → pullback → potential continuation to: bearish divergence → FVG failure → confirmed downside expansion. But there’s still a bullish path. If the FVG holds, sellers haven’t taken control yet. $SPX could still push back above last week’s high and sweep the highs before the larger reversal begins. So

I’m still leaning bullish on $S&P 500(.SPX)$ for now. The key reason is the relative strength against $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ . The bullish SMT remains in place, and more importantly, we still haven’t seen the bearish divergence at the highs that would make me comfortable taking the short. That’s the signal I’m waiting for. 🎯 If $SPX pushes through last week’s high around 7770, but $NDX or $DJI fails to confirm the breakout, the picture changes quickly. That would give us the bearish SMT I’m looking for — and that’s when I’ll start hunting for the short. 🔻 Until that happens, I’m not interested in forcing a bearish trade. Let $SPX prove the reversal first. 👀 For now, the bias stays higher. 📈

Good morning! ☕️ The relief bounce showed up exactly where it needed to. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ held yesterday’s low, then pushed straight into the bearish Daily FVG. That’s a strong bounce on the chart, but the location matters more than the bounce itself. 👀 There’s also a bullish SMT against $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ , which is helping support the reversal for now. So yes, $SPX could push a little deeper into the FVG before making its next decision. But my bias hasn’t changed. I still expect this rally to get sold into resistance. 🔑 The level I’m watching: A daily close above 7,701 would change the picture and signal a more meaningful bullish move with room for a deeper retracement. Until that happens, I’m treating

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ sell signal played out. Targets were hit. Now today’s low becomes the key level to watch. 👀 If it holds, I’m looking for a relief bounce first, with the Daily FVG resistance as the initial area to watch. But if today’s low breaks, that could be the trigger for W3 to start expanding lower. Either way, I don’t think the bigger picture changes much. A hold could give us a bounce. A break could accelerate the downside. But once that bounce or breakdown resolves, the setup still favors lower. So for me, today isn’t really about guessing the direction. It’s about watching the low. Hold it → bounce first. Lose it → W3 lower. Either path keeps the downside bias in play. 📉

The multi-month divergence has returned, and it’s becoming one of the key setups I’m watching right now. While $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(ESmain)$ and $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2609(YMmain)$ pushed well above their June highs, $NQ Minerals PLC(NQMIY)$ remains significantly below its June peak. That disconnect matters. Now all three major futures indices are pulling back, bringing back a setup that previously preceded the correction earlier this year. ⚠️ 📊 The Divergence $ES and $YM managed to make fresh highs while $NQ failed to confirm. When one major index repeatedly lags while the others continue higher, it can signal that market breadth and lead

Hey Tigers 🐯 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ pushed into the key sell zone and was rejected, keeping the short-term bearish setup intact. The rebound retraced roughly 78.6% of the previous five-wave decline before forming a three-wave recovery into the Daily FVG resistance. Price has now reacted from that zone, leaving the bounce looking corrective rather than impulsive. The key level from here is 7,690. 📍 Daily close below 7,690 → bearish trigger If that level breaks on a closing basis, the setup points toward another leg lower, with the prior June all-time high acting as the first major downside reference. There is still room for one more push higher. The 7,750–7,775 area remains the main resistance zone, and another test could develop before sellers take c

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ bounced, but the rally may be running into resistance. 📈 Price is moving higher within the 2/B-wave rebound, with the Daily FVG now serving as the next upside target. ⚠️ That zone is expected to cap the recovery. If resistance holds, the rebound could give way to the next leg lower, continuing the bearish 5-wave decline from the recent peak. The key level to watch is 7750. 🔴 Below 7750: bearish structure remains intact 🟡 At the Daily FVG: watch for the rally to stall 🟢 A close above 7750: first warning that the bearish setup may be losing control

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ bounce is here, just as expected. But there is still NO bullish SMT supporting a sustained reversal, so I’m treating the recent move as a relief bounce within a broader bearish structure. 🔻 What I’m Watching The bearish 5-wave decline now appears largely in place, which favors a relief bounce next. The open gap at 7629 sits just below and could be tagged first to complete W5. If $SPX breaks above today’s high, that would strengthen the case that the 2/B-wave bounce is getting underway. 🎯 Key Resistance The Daily FVG at 7714–7776 remains the main resistance zone. A rejection there → W3 lower becomes the preferred scenario. ⚠️ The Bigger Confirmation 7566 remains the key higher-degree level. Break below 7566 → the larger 10–15% c

👋 Good morning, tigers! The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ bounce is here, but I’m still not seeing the bullish SMT needed to support a sustained reversal. For now, I’m treating last week’s ABC decline as a bearish Wave 1 (W1). That makes the current rebound potentially a Wave 2 correction, rather than the start of a new uptrend. 🎯 Key level: 7,714–7,776 This Daily FVG is the zone I’m watching closely for W2 resistance. If $SPX pushes into this range and gets rejected, the next move I’m looking for is W3 lower. ⚠️ The bigger confirmation level is 7,566. A decisive break below 7,566 would strengthen the larger bearish thesis and suggest that a 10–15% correction is underway. The setup is simple: Bounce → test 7,714–7,776 → rejection → W3 lower. Until bullish S

Good morning, tigers! ☀️ The bullish SMT divergence on $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ is now gone. That was the last major piece of confluence supporting the immediate bounce scenario. With that signal invalidated, the near-term bias shifts back to the downside. 📉 🎯 First: Lower Prices I’m looking for $NDX to move lower first, with the next focus on the previously identified equality targets. I don’t want to chase the initial selloff, though. The better setup may come after the first leg lower. 🔄 Then: Wait for Wave 2 Once those downside targets are reached, I’ll be watching for a corrective bounce — Wave 2. That rebound is the move I’m most interested in. Lower first → Wave 2 bounce → Look for the short. 🎯 A corrective rally would give the market room to res

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ has now reached the initial downside objective, with weekly FVG support getting tapped. At the same time, a bullish SMT divergence with $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ is developing around the August 6 low, suggesting the selloff may be entering a more important decision zone. 👀 The move straight down from the highs looks like the A-wave of an ABC correction. If that structure plays out as expected, the market could spend the rest of the week completing the pullback before setting up for the next leg higher. 📊 🎯 The key level to watch is 7,900. For the bullish scenario to remain valid, price needs to stabilize around the current FVG support and allow the corrective structure to develop rather than t

The W5 blow-off rally has played out almost exactly as expected, with the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ reaching the 7,700 area. That leaves one final upside zone on the radar: 7,900–8,000. But the bigger question is what happens after that. The June highs are already showing bearish SMT divergence with $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ , suggesting the rally may be losing momentum beneath the surface. As long as the Nasdaq remains below its all-time highs, the risk of a 10–15% correction remains on the table. The larger Elliott Wave structure also points to a potential W4 decline later this year, with the S&P 500 potentially retracing toward 7,200 or lower. For now, the trend remains bullish, but the risk/reward is changing qu

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ had a clear opportunity to extend the recent rally, but the breakout attempt failed to gain enough momentum. That makes the bearish B-wave rally the higher-probability short-term scenario for now. Under this interpretation, the next move could be a C-wave decline toward the August 6 swing low, completing the bullish ABC corrective structure. If that support holds and the correction finishes as expected, the broader uptrend would remain intact, setting the stage for another leg higher. From there, the next major objective would be 7,900, which could complete the larger W5 advance and mark the next significant upside target. There is still a bullish alternative. If $SPX manages to chop sideways into the CPI release and then break

My August 5 outlook continues to play out. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ reached the first target at 7,700, and the broader bullish structure remains intact. After a period of consolidation, price bounced directly from the Daily FVG, confirming that buyers are still defending the key support zone. With momentum remaining strong, 7,900 is now the next major target, representing the 50% extension of Wave 3. If momentum continues, a move toward new highs could develop early this week. However, I’m not chasing price at these levels. The market is already extended after the recent rally, which makes the risk/reward less attractive for fresh longs. Instead, I’m watching for another pullback into the next bullish Daily FVG. A clean retest followed by a successful

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ The triangle has now completed, with Friday's low marking the end of Wave 4. Price has since moved above the July 15 B-wave high, confirming that Wave 5 is officially underway. The breakout is supported by a newly formed daily Fair Value Gap (FVG), which now serves as the first layer of support. As long as price holds above this zone, the broader uptrend remains intact and shallow pullbacks are likely to attract buyers rather than trigger a deeper reversal. The initial upside target at 7,700 has already been achieved. With momentum still firmly on the bulls' side, the next objective is 7,900, representing the 50% extension of Wave 3. That said, the market is becoming extended after the recent advance. Rather than chasing streng

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ invalidated the triangle. Then EXPANDED it. The flush traced a bullish ABC down and respected Daily FVG support. Bullish SMT with $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ at last week's low as confluence. Chop into FOMC, then W5 finally unleashes. Bulls still get the edge. Lose the support on a daily close and there's nothing left to bounce from though. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(ESmain)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(NQmain)$ $Dow Jones(

$SPX defended the W4 triangle low while $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(NQmain)$ swept its June low, creating a bullish SMT divergence. The key trigger now is a breakout above the bearish FVG resistance — a daily close above that level could confirm a new move toward all-time highs. Meanwhile, $MSFT’s Elliott Wave setup hit the 402 target, validating the bullish thesis. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Do or die for $SPX. Price held the W4 triangle low. $NQ swept its June low. SPX didn't. Bullish SMT — DIVERGENCE PRINTED. A new bearish FVG is now the last thing standing between us and new all-time highs. Daily close above the FVG resistance = BUY SIGNAL. Lean stays bullish. Below the triangle → local top warning