猫咪国王 personal page - To The Moon

猫咪国王

猫咪国王

投资理财爱好者

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2023-04-19

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New Energy Vehicle Stocks Continue to Fall, XPeng Automobile Drops Over 10%

2023-04-03

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Big option | Bank stocks counterattack, and there are obvious differences between long and short sides! Do more money bets, can Carnival Cruises live up to expectations?

2023-04-03

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Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-03-09

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Powell released an "eagle" beyond expectations. What is the real danger behind it?

2023-03-06

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Earnings Preview | Southeast Asia's Internet Boom Fades, Sea Q4 Revenue May Show Negative Growth for the First Time

2023-03-03

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War without smoke again! The Fed is dead?

2022-11-22

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@财见:企鵝蘭登書屋收購西蒙與舒斯特的交易將告吹

2022-10-03

$特斯拉(TSLA)$good

2022-09-29

$百度(BIDU)$how？

2022-09-29

$百度(BIDU)$good？

2022-09-29

$英伟达(NVDA)$long term

2022-09-28

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$Ku

2022-09-26

$花旗(C)$hope？

2022-09-26

$花旗(C)$hope？

2022-09-20

$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$good！

2022-09-18

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UBS: First to give Ctrip (TCOM.O) a neutral rating.

2022-09-16

$英伟达(NVDA)$ok

2022-09-15

$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$Buy

2022-09-15

$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$Good

2022-09-13

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$still good

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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21:51","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"New Energy Vehicle Stocks Continue to Fall, XPeng Automobile Drops Over 10%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174181535","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月19日，新能源车股持续下跌，小鹏汽车跌超10%，蔚来跌超6%，Rivian、福特汽车、理想汽车跌超4%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On April 19th, new energy vehicle stocks continued to fall,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>dropped by more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>fell more than 6%, Rivian,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It fell by more than 4%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20333f03952676434d41edaaaa5b10e9\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Energy Vehicle Stocks Continue to Fall, XPeng Automobile Drops Over 10%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Energy Vehicle Stocks Continue to Fall, XPeng Automobile Drops Over 10%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-04-19 21:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On April 19th, new energy vehicle stocks continued to fall,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>dropped by more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>fell more than 6%, Rivian,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It fell by more than 4%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20333f03952676434d41edaaaa5b10e9\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47b6fbfe38edb1202883a645549da7f6","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","BK1539":"汽车股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0593848301.USD":"未来资产亚洲卓越消费股票基金A","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4555":"新能源车","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK1587":"次新股","NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","BK1575":"同股不同权"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174181535","content_text":"4月19日，新能源车股持续下跌，小鹏汽车跌超10%，蔚来跌超6%，Rivian、福特汽车、理想汽车跌超4%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3009,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941495949,"gmtCreate":1680514299881,"gmtModify":1680514303466,"author":{"id":"4090765737044950","authorId":"4090765737044950","name":"猫咪国王","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9b05a625ccb22b4f0458e1a8ba46bd44","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090765737044950","authorIdStr":"4090765737044950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941495949","repostId":"1178785059","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178785059","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1679984289,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178785059?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-28 14:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Big option | Bank stocks counterattack, and there are obvious differences between long and short sides! Do more money bets, can Carnival Cruises live up to expectations?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178785059","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美东时间3月27日，期权市场总成交量达31,161,419.张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%。特斯拉、苹果等明星股看涨期权的成交量特别高；做多资金押注，嘉年华邮轮能否不负众望？一、市场概览美东时","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract: On March 27th, Eastern Time, the total trading volume of the options market reached 31,161,419 contracts, of which call options accounted for 54%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The volume of call options on other star stocks is particularly high; Make long money bets,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival Cruises</a>Can it live up to expectations?</b><b>Market Overview</b></p><p>On March 27th, Eastern Time, U.S. stocks closed mixed on Monday, and bank stocks generally rose. First Citizens Bank Acquisition<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>All deposits and loans, and the U.S. authorities are considering helping<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>News such as strengthening the balance sheet boosted market sentiment. However, the overall market is still in a tepid state. This also reflects signs of a lack of direction in the market as a whole after the banking crisis. By the close, the Dow Jones was up 0.6%, the Nasdaq was down 0.47% and the S&P 500 was up 0.16%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6039ae90374132fafc810a91f224e3eb\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"152\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Tiger International</span></p><p>On Monday, the options market had a total volume of 31,161,419 contracts, of which calls accounted for 54%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0369686ff54cd71e80033330dc6cfd96\" tg-width=\"1786\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p>S&P ETF-SPY options traded 7.85 million contracts, of which put options accounted for 53%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10baa7de6fbb69852ae21f65aacb209a\" tg-width=\"1615\" tg-height=\"411\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>TOP10 Total Option Trading Volume</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cdaa6d1299aa61d03a2f31ea6615449\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"1409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Tiger International</span></p><p><b>Tesla</b>It rose 0.74% to $191,81 on Monday. 1.286 million options contracts were traded, and call options accounted for 61% of all options trades. Exercise price of $200 due March 31, 2023<b>Call Option</b>of was particularly high, with 106,046 trades.</p><p>In the news: Tesla's Berlin factory broke through the key production node three months ahead of schedule, with weekly output exceeding 5,000 vehicles.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c0c1cffb8631554864e2e19e61aee6\" tg-width=\"1647\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>Apple</b>It fell 1.23% at $158,28 on Monday. 722,700 options contracts were traded, and call options accounted for 51% of all options traded. Exercise price of $160 due March 31, 2023<b>Call Option</b>of was particularly high, with 67,816 trades.</p><p>News: Apple's low-key expansion of \"AI arsenal\" quietly acquired WaveOne, a video AI startup.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f23602c67a8979722704d6166a7f85d2\" tg-width=\"1647\" tg-height=\"267\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Up nearly 5% on Monday</b>, quoted $28,49. 503,500 options contracts were traded, and call options accounted for 51% of all options traded. Exercise price of $29 due March 31, 2023<b>Call Option</b>of was particularly high, with 22,607 trades. This means that in the options market, investors are betting on a short-term rally or near a peak in the stock.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b34d17be11e67e68cc456b370effe6c\" tg-width=\"1646\" tg-height=\"266\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>3. Movement observation</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b35d7473af7e1e73b0dd2982d48d5172\" tg-width=\"1715\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>Silicon Valley Bank turmoil subsides, and US authorities are considering helping<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>Boosted by news such as strengthening the balance sheet.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a></b>It rose nearly 12% to $13.82 on Monday. Due to the recent large amplitude of the stock, there are obvious differences between the long and short sides in the option market! There are bets that the exercise price expires on March 31 is only $1<b>Put Options,</b>There are also bets on a $60 exercise price expiring March 31<b>Call Option</b>。</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c800f98afd08a65e41e33a58b2a8a8b1\" tg-width=\"1644\" tg-height=\"274\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>Carnival Cruises</b>It fell more than 4% to $8.79 on Monday. Exercise price of $10 due March 31, 2023<b>Call Option</b>Of was particularly high in volume, with 20,396 trades.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/018470ff6f9341dfd4725a3715cefc9d\" tg-width=\"1644\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a></b>It rose 3% at $54.86 on Monday. Volume was particularly high for calls with an exercise price of $55 expiring on March 31, 2023, with 7,469 trades.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60d0851d46b18fc6864c4ec52f9f6474\" tg-width=\"1644\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Big option | Bank stocks counterattack, and there are obvious differences between long and short sides! Do more money bets, can Carnival Cruises live up to expectations?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBig option | Bank stocks counterattack, and there are obvious differences between long and short sides! Do more money bets, can Carnival Cruises live up to expectations?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-28 14:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract: On March 27th, Eastern Time, the total trading volume of the options market reached 31,161,419 contracts, of which call options accounted for 54%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The volume of call options on other star stocks is particularly high; Make long money bets,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival Cruises</a>Can it live up to expectations?</b><b>Market Overview</b></p><p>On March 27th, Eastern Time, U.S. stocks closed mixed on Monday, and bank stocks generally rose. First Citizens Bank Acquisition<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>All deposits and loans, and the U.S. authorities are considering helping<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>News such as strengthening the balance sheet boosted market sentiment. However, the overall market is still in a tepid state. This also reflects signs of a lack of direction in the market as a whole after the banking crisis. By the close, the Dow Jones was up 0.6%, the Nasdaq was down 0.47% and the S&P 500 was up 0.16%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6039ae90374132fafc810a91f224e3eb\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"152\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Tiger International</span></p><p>On Monday, the options market had a total volume of 31,161,419 contracts, of which calls accounted for 54%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0369686ff54cd71e80033330dc6cfd96\" tg-width=\"1786\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p>S&P ETF-SPY options traded 7.85 million contracts, of which put options accounted for 53%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10baa7de6fbb69852ae21f65aacb209a\" tg-width=\"1615\" tg-height=\"411\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>TOP10 Total Option Trading Volume</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cdaa6d1299aa61d03a2f31ea6615449\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"1409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Tiger International</span></p><p><b>Tesla</b>It rose 0.74% to $191,81 on Monday. 1.286 million options contracts were traded, and call options accounted for 61% of all options trades. Exercise price of $200 due March 31, 2023<b>Call Option</b>of was particularly high, with 106,046 trades.</p><p>In the news: Tesla's Berlin factory broke through the key production node three months ahead of schedule, with weekly output exceeding 5,000 vehicles.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c0c1cffb8631554864e2e19e61aee6\" tg-width=\"1647\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>Apple</b>It fell 1.23% at $158,28 on Monday. 722,700 options contracts were traded, and call options accounted for 51% of all options traded. Exercise price of $160 due March 31, 2023<b>Call Option</b>of was particularly high, with 67,816 trades.</p><p>News: Apple's low-key expansion of \"AI arsenal\" quietly acquired WaveOne, a video AI startup.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f23602c67a8979722704d6166a7f85d2\" tg-width=\"1647\" tg-height=\"267\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Up nearly 5% on Monday</b>, quoted $28,49. 503,500 options contracts were traded, and call options accounted for 51% of all options traded. Exercise price of $29 due March 31, 2023<b>Call Option</b>of was particularly high, with 22,607 trades. This means that in the options market, investors are betting on a short-term rally or near a peak in the stock.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b34d17be11e67e68cc456b370effe6c\" tg-width=\"1646\" tg-height=\"266\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>3. Movement observation</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b35d7473af7e1e73b0dd2982d48d5172\" tg-width=\"1715\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>Silicon Valley Bank turmoil subsides, and US authorities are considering helping<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>Boosted by news such as strengthening the balance sheet.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a></b>It rose nearly 12% to $13.82 on Monday. Due to the recent large amplitude of the stock, there are obvious differences between the long and short sides in the option market! There are bets that the exercise price expires on March 31 is only $1<b>Put Options,</b>There are also bets on a $60 exercise price expiring March 31<b>Call Option</b>。</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c800f98afd08a65e41e33a58b2a8a8b1\" tg-width=\"1644\" tg-height=\"274\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>Carnival Cruises</b>It fell more than 4% to $8.79 on Monday. Exercise price of $10 due March 31, 2023<b>Call Option</b>Of was particularly high in volume, with 20,396 trades.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/018470ff6f9341dfd4725a3715cefc9d\" tg-width=\"1644\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a></b>It rose 3% at $54.86 on Monday. Volume was particularly high for calls with an exercise price of $55 expiring on March 31, 2023, with 7,469 trades.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60d0851d46b18fc6864c4ec52f9f6474\" tg-width=\"1644\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"LU1861220207.SGD":"Blackrock FinTech A2 SGD-H","CCL":"嘉年华邮轮","AAPL":"苹果","SCHW":"嘉信理财","LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BAC":"美国银行","BK4517":"邮轮概念","AXP":"美国运通","BK4589":"SVB概念","SIVBQ":"硅谷银行","LU1861217088.USD":"贝莱德金融科技A2","BK4211":"区域性银行","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4588":"碎股","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4142":"酒店、度假村与豪华游轮"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178785059","content_text":"摘要：美东时间3月27日，期权市场总成交量达31,161,419.张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%。特斯拉、苹果等明星股看涨期权的成交量特别高；做多资金押注，嘉年华邮轮能否不负众望？一、市场概览美东时间3月27日，美股周一收盘涨跌不一，银行股普涨。第一公民银行收购硅谷银行全部存贷款、以及美国当局正考虑帮助第一共和银行强化资产负债表等消息，提振了市场情绪。但大盘整体仍呈现不温不火的状态。这也反映出银行业危机过后，市场整体缺乏方向的迹象。截止收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.6%，纳斯达克指数跌0.47%，标普500指数涨0.16%。数据来源：老虎国际周一，期权市场总成交量达31,161,419.张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%。数据来源：Market Chameleon标普指数ETF-SPY期权成交785万张合约，其中，看跌期权占比53%。数据来源：Market Chameleon二、期权成交总量TOP10数据来源：老虎国际特斯拉周一涨0.74%，报191,81美元。期权合约成交128.6万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的61%。2023年3月31日到期行权价为200美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为106,046张。消息方面：特斯拉柏林工厂提前三个月突破关键产量节点，周产量突破5000辆。数据来源：Market Chameleon苹果周一跌1.23%，报158,28美元。期权合约成交72.27万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的51%。2023年3月31日到期行权价为160美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为67,816张。消息方面：苹果低调扩充“AI军火库” 静悄悄收购视频AI创业公司WaveOne。数据来源：Market Chameleon美国银行周一涨近5%，报28,49美元。期权合约成交50.35万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的51%。2023年3月31日到期行权价为29美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为22,607张。这意味着在期权市场中，投资者押注该股短线反弹或接近见顶。数据来源：Market Chameleon三、异动观察数据来源：Market Chameleon硅谷银行风波逐渐平息，以及美国当局正考虑帮助第一共和银行强化资产负债表等消息提振。第一共和银行周一涨近12%，报13.82美元。由于该股近期振幅较大，在期权市场中，多空双方出现明显分歧！有押注3月31日到期行权价仅为1美元看跌期权，也有押注3月31日到期行权价为60美元看涨期权。数据来源：Market Chameleon嘉年华邮轮周一跌超4%，报8.79美元。2023年3月31日到期行权价为10美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为20,396张。数据来源：Market Chameleon嘉信理财周一上涨3%，报54.86美元。2023年3月31日到期行权价为55美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为7,469张。数据来源：Market Chameleon","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SCHW":0.9,"CCL":0.9,"AXP":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"SIVBQ":0.9,"FRC":0.9,"SIVB":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941495092,"gmtCreate":1680514289516,"gmtModify":1680514293011,"author":{"id":"4090765737044950","authorId":"4090765737044950","name":"猫咪国王","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9b05a625ccb22b4f0458e1a8ba46bd44","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090765737044950","authorIdStr":"4090765737044950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941495092","repostId":"1130992032","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3022,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949309322,"gmtCreate":1678336055467,"gmtModify":1678336059591,"author":{"id":"4090765737044950","authorId":"4090765737044950","name":"猫咪国王","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9b05a625ccb22b4f0458e1a8ba46bd44","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090765737044950","authorIdStr":"4090765737044950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949309322","repostId":"1173146453","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173146453","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678331864,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1173146453?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-09 11:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Powell released an \"eagle\" beyond expectations. What is the real danger behind it?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173146453","media":"格隆汇","summary":"全球金融市场为何会如此恐慌？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Powell on his own, overturned the global financial market.</p><p><b>01</b></p><p>At 23: 00 on March 7th, Beijing time, Powell attended the hearing of the House of Representatives and the Senate, and gave the Federal Reserve's semi-annual monetary policy testimony. It was his first speech since Feb. 7 and his last before the interest rate meeting in March.</p><p>Powell cuts straight to the point and says:<i>\"Inflation has been slowing in recent months, but the process of falling back to 2% is still a long way to go and could be bumpy. As I mentioned, recent economic data has been stronger than expected,</i><i><b>This suggests that the eventual interest rate level could be higher than previously expected. If the headline data hints at the need for faster (monetary) tightening, we will be prepared to accelerate the pace of rate hike.</b></i><i>Restoring price stability will likely require us to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance for some time. \"</i></p><p>Powell also noted that U.S. inflation growth has somewhat moderated since his last House testimony in the middle of last year, but inflation is still well above the Fed's long-term target of 2%. Because supply chain bottlenecks have eased and monetary tightening has limited demand, inflation in the core commodity sector has fallen. However, core services other than housing inflation has not declined.</p><p><b>Powell's eagle beyond imagination, not only may the terminal interest rate be higher than previously expected, but also the rate hike rhythm may return to 50 basis points, which greatly shocked the financial market.</b>In particular, once the latter happens, it will change the trajectory of the previous trading of the financial market \"rate hike slowed to the end\" in the medium term.</p><p>According to the U.S. federal funds rate futures trading market, the probability of 50 basis points in rate hike soared to 70% in March from 30% the previous day, and the probability of 25 basis points in rate hike fell to 30% from 70% the previous day. And the probability that the expected value of the terminal interest rate will reach 5.5%-5.75% in June this year is as high as about 50%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b999772d2952d88a64cad987538f394b\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Powell's hawkish statement suggests that non-farm payrolls and inflation in the United States in February may still maintain the hot trend of January. In fact, we can also get a clue from the disclosed data.</p><p>In February, Markit composite PMI and services PMI both rose above 50, both exceeding previous market expectations, and both hit new highs since June 2022, reversing the previous trend of shrinking for seven consecutive months. Among them, the final value of the employment sub-index has all risen to a new high since September 2022. This indicates that the U.S. economy will still show considerable resilience in February, and the job market may remain tight.</p><p><b>The high inflation fever in the European market also suggests that the inflation situation in the United States in February is not optimistic.</b>Eurozone harmonized CPI rose 8.5% year-on-year in February, higher than expected 8.3%, compared with the previous value of 8.6%. In terms of month-on-month, the initial value of harmonized CPI in the euro zone in February increased by 0.8% month-on-month, higher than the expected 0.5%, and decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in January. The core CPI of the euro zone in February was as high as 5.6%, far exceeding market expectations and 5.3% in January, setting a new historical record again. Among them, the core CPI of Germany, France and Italy, the top three economies in the euro zone, all exceeded expectations in February, and set a new inflation record for this round.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca27c8507c5e31866af826e68abc1a1d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Whether the Federal Reserve rate hike 50 basis points in March ultimately depends on the non-farm data this Friday and the inflation data next Tuesday. If the data remains hotter than expected, it will continue to pressure the valuation level of risky assets.</p><p><b>In 2023, the terminal interest rate of the Federal Reserve rate hike will be higher, and the longer the interest rate will be maintained, it will be a major tail risk for the global financial market.</b>On the one hand, under the background of higher and longer interest rates, the accumulation and lag of monetary tightening will gradually appear, the impact on the economy will be more obvious, and the possibility of economic recession will be greater. On the other hand, the increasingly tight global monetary liquidity will aggravate the large fluctuations in the whole financial market, and non-bank financial institutions such as pension funds, insurance companies and hedge funds will face shocks and threats. Britain's pension thunderstorm, the Credit Suisse bankruptcy and Blackstone's bond default may just be the prelude.</p><p><b>02</b></p><p>Recently, A shares have ushered in a wave of obvious adjustment. Why?</p><p>The expected GDP target for this year is around 5%. This data actually falls within the lower limit of the market expectation range of 5%-5.5%, and the expected median is roughly 5.3%. In the short term, the market will correct the previous optimistic expectation to a certain extent.</p><p>In the view of institutions, there are two main factors for the reasonable conservative data. First, maintain our determination and not repeat the old road of real estate-fully implement the new development concept, speed up the construction of a new development pattern, and strive to promote high-quality development. This also means that the stimulus for real estate will be limited, and there will be no flood irrigation to engage in strong stimulus.</p><p>Second, there are large internal and external pressures and uncertainties-the uncertainty of the external environment is increasing, global inflation is still at a high level, the growth momentum of the world economy and trade is weakening, and external suppression and containment are rising. The upward foundation of domestic economic growth stabilization still needs to be consolidated, and insufficient demand is still a prominent contradiction...</p><p>In addition to the 5% data, there is another important data, that is, the new employment target of urban population is about 12 million. The employment target is a record high. To achieve this goal, the economic growth rate will go up. It also implies that the actual economic target achieved this year may exceed 5%.<b>In the short term, 5% puts pressure on the market and needs to be revised and adjusted. However, the employment data implies that the actual results in the future may exceed expectations, and it is also a source of excess returns in the future.</b></p><p>For setting the tone of monetary policy, the central bank's implementation report and the government's work report are both \"prudent monetary policy should be accurate and powerful\". And keep the growth rate of broad money supply and social financing scale basically matched with the nominal economic growth rate to support the development of the real economy.</p><p>Roughly calculated, with 5% GDP growth and 3% inflation target, there is a good chance that M2 growth will remain below 10% this year, compared to double-digit growth in 2022. From this perspective, the possibility of marginal easing of monetary policy again this year will be relatively small, and it is almost impossible for interest rate cut and RRR cut tools to appear in the short to medium term.</p><p>The pricing of the A-share market denominator is not only influenced by domestic monetary policy, but also subject to the disturbance of overseas liquidity.</p><p><b>In Fu Peng's view, the US dollar interest rate, whether nominal or real, is actually an important benchmark that really determines the global valuation.</b>In China, you want to be a primary market venture capital. Whether this enterprise gives 30 times or 60 times is not determined by the RMB interest rate, but by the US dollar interest rate. Because whether it is a company in Hong Kong, China or a company in mainland China, what industry and company to invest in go to the United States to find a benchmark to see what the valuation level is. The world's relatively innovative and leading companies are listed in the United States and are denominated in US dollars.</p><p>In the last month, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has climbed sharply from around 3.4% to 4%. U.S. stocks also adjusted for a month. Corresponding to the domestic market, the GEM Index and Hang Seng Technology Index were significantly adjusted in the same period. Because these index growth leaders have a heavy weight, they will be more impacted by overseas liquidity. However, the traditional industries headed by the weight of Shanghai Composite Index in big blue chips benefit from the logic of economic recovery, and the adjustment range is relatively small.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c601457fd9acd1a7e92210d30781c40\" tg-width=\"691\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Recently, the external US stock market has returned to the logic of high trading inflation stickiness and higher and longer rate hike. This has caused the US Dollar Index and 10-year U.S. bond yields to soar, which in turn has suppressed the valuation level of global risk assets, especially growth stocks.</p><p>5% of the data is not surprising as expected by the market, and with the background of overseas liquidity tightening trading, A shares will still have some pressure in the short term. However, the main logic of economic recovery has not changed, so there is no need to panic. At the same time, we need to closely track the progress of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Sino-US relations, and make timely positional adjustments and changes.</p><p><b>03</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are the three major engines of global liquidity. The Federal Reserve is most important, but it is going in the direction of higher interest rates for longer. The European Central Bank is not bad either. The market's peak interest expectation for the European Central Bank has exceeded 4%, soaring by 60 basis points in just one month.</p><p>Japan's inflation is also becoming increasingly out of control. In February, the CPI has reached the highest level in 40 years, and the core CPI has exceeded the central bank's 2% inflation target for the 10th consecutive month. Wage growth is a key factor in the BOJ's monetary policy, after Haruhiko Kuroda made a 3% wage increase a prerequisite for ending ultra-loose monetary policy. This year's \"Spring Offensive\" has become a wage negotiation widely followed in the global market.<b>If it reaches more than 3%, Kazuo Ueda may continue to follow the rhythm of interest rate hike in December last year after taking office in April, which will be a big black swan for the global financial market.</b></p><p>If the world's three largest fluid engines stall and last for a long time, what is expected to happen in the world? Others don't know, but one thing that is more certain is that it will not be friendly to risky assets.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell released an \"eagle\" beyond expectations. What is the real danger behind it?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell released an \"eagle\" beyond expectations. What is the real danger behind it?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-09 11:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Powell on his own, overturned the global financial market.</p><p><b>01</b></p><p>At 23: 00 on March 7th, Beijing time, Powell attended the hearing of the House of Representatives and the Senate, and gave the Federal Reserve's semi-annual monetary policy testimony. It was his first speech since Feb. 7 and his last before the interest rate meeting in March.</p><p>Powell cuts straight to the point and says:<i>\"Inflation has been slowing in recent months, but the process of falling back to 2% is still a long way to go and could be bumpy. As I mentioned, recent economic data has been stronger than expected,</i><i><b>This suggests that the eventual interest rate level could be higher than previously expected. If the headline data hints at the need for faster (monetary) tightening, we will be prepared to accelerate the pace of rate hike.</b></i><i>Restoring price stability will likely require us to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance for some time. \"</i></p><p>Powell also noted that U.S. inflation growth has somewhat moderated since his last House testimony in the middle of last year, but inflation is still well above the Fed's long-term target of 2%. Because supply chain bottlenecks have eased and monetary tightening has limited demand, inflation in the core commodity sector has fallen. However, core services other than housing inflation has not declined.</p><p><b>Powell's eagle beyond imagination, not only may the terminal interest rate be higher than previously expected, but also the rate hike rhythm may return to 50 basis points, which greatly shocked the financial market.</b>In particular, once the latter happens, it will change the trajectory of the previous trading of the financial market \"rate hike slowed to the end\" in the medium term.</p><p>According to the U.S. federal funds rate futures trading market, the probability of 50 basis points in rate hike soared to 70% in March from 30% the previous day, and the probability of 25 basis points in rate hike fell to 30% from 70% the previous day. And the probability that the expected value of the terminal interest rate will reach 5.5%-5.75% in June this year is as high as about 50%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b999772d2952d88a64cad987538f394b\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Powell's hawkish statement suggests that non-farm payrolls and inflation in the United States in February may still maintain the hot trend of January. In fact, we can also get a clue from the disclosed data.</p><p>In February, Markit composite PMI and services PMI both rose above 50, both exceeding previous market expectations, and both hit new highs since June 2022, reversing the previous trend of shrinking for seven consecutive months. Among them, the final value of the employment sub-index has all risen to a new high since September 2022. This indicates that the U.S. economy will still show considerable resilience in February, and the job market may remain tight.</p><p><b>The high inflation fever in the European market also suggests that the inflation situation in the United States in February is not optimistic.</b>Eurozone harmonized CPI rose 8.5% year-on-year in February, higher than expected 8.3%, compared with the previous value of 8.6%. In terms of month-on-month, the initial value of harmonized CPI in the euro zone in February increased by 0.8% month-on-month, higher than the expected 0.5%, and decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in January. The core CPI of the euro zone in February was as high as 5.6%, far exceeding market expectations and 5.3% in January, setting a new historical record again. Among them, the core CPI of Germany, France and Italy, the top three economies in the euro zone, all exceeded expectations in February, and set a new inflation record for this round.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca27c8507c5e31866af826e68abc1a1d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Whether the Federal Reserve rate hike 50 basis points in March ultimately depends on the non-farm data this Friday and the inflation data next Tuesday. If the data remains hotter than expected, it will continue to pressure the valuation level of risky assets.</p><p><b>In 2023, the terminal interest rate of the Federal Reserve rate hike will be higher, and the longer the interest rate will be maintained, it will be a major tail risk for the global financial market.</b>On the one hand, under the background of higher and longer interest rates, the accumulation and lag of monetary tightening will gradually appear, the impact on the economy will be more obvious, and the possibility of economic recession will be greater. On the other hand, the increasingly tight global monetary liquidity will aggravate the large fluctuations in the whole financial market, and non-bank financial institutions such as pension funds, insurance companies and hedge funds will face shocks and threats. Britain's pension thunderstorm, the Credit Suisse bankruptcy and Blackstone's bond default may just be the prelude.</p><p><b>02</b></p><p>Recently, A shares have ushered in a wave of obvious adjustment. Why?</p><p>The expected GDP target for this year is around 5%. This data actually falls within the lower limit of the market expectation range of 5%-5.5%, and the expected median is roughly 5.3%. In the short term, the market will correct the previous optimistic expectation to a certain extent.</p><p>In the view of institutions, there are two main factors for the reasonable conservative data. First, maintain our determination and not repeat the old road of real estate-fully implement the new development concept, speed up the construction of a new development pattern, and strive to promote high-quality development. This also means that the stimulus for real estate will be limited, and there will be no flood irrigation to engage in strong stimulus.</p><p>Second, there are large internal and external pressures and uncertainties-the uncertainty of the external environment is increasing, global inflation is still at a high level, the growth momentum of the world economy and trade is weakening, and external suppression and containment are rising. The upward foundation of domestic economic growth stabilization still needs to be consolidated, and insufficient demand is still a prominent contradiction...</p><p>In addition to the 5% data, there is another important data, that is, the new employment target of urban population is about 12 million. The employment target is a record high. To achieve this goal, the economic growth rate will go up. It also implies that the actual economic target achieved this year may exceed 5%.<b>In the short term, 5% puts pressure on the market and needs to be revised and adjusted. However, the employment data implies that the actual results in the future may exceed expectations, and it is also a source of excess returns in the future.</b></p><p>For setting the tone of monetary policy, the central bank's implementation report and the government's work report are both \"prudent monetary policy should be accurate and powerful\". And keep the growth rate of broad money supply and social financing scale basically matched with the nominal economic growth rate to support the development of the real economy.</p><p>Roughly calculated, with 5% GDP growth and 3% inflation target, there is a good chance that M2 growth will remain below 10% this year, compared to double-digit growth in 2022. From this perspective, the possibility of marginal easing of monetary policy again this year will be relatively small, and it is almost impossible for interest rate cut and RRR cut tools to appear in the short to medium term.</p><p>The pricing of the A-share market denominator is not only influenced by domestic monetary policy, but also subject to the disturbance of overseas liquidity.</p><p><b>In Fu Peng's view, the US dollar interest rate, whether nominal or real, is actually an important benchmark that really determines the global valuation.</b>In China, you want to be a primary market venture capital. Whether this enterprise gives 30 times or 60 times is not determined by the RMB interest rate, but by the US dollar interest rate. Because whether it is a company in Hong Kong, China or a company in mainland China, what industry and company to invest in go to the United States to find a benchmark to see what the valuation level is. The world's relatively innovative and leading companies are listed in the United States and are denominated in US dollars.</p><p>In the last month, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has climbed sharply from around 3.4% to 4%. U.S. stocks also adjusted for a month. Corresponding to the domestic market, the GEM Index and Hang Seng Technology Index were significantly adjusted in the same period. Because these index growth leaders have a heavy weight, they will be more impacted by overseas liquidity. However, the traditional industries headed by the weight of Shanghai Composite Index in big blue chips benefit from the logic of economic recovery, and the adjustment range is relatively small.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c601457fd9acd1a7e92210d30781c40\" tg-width=\"691\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Recently, the external US stock market has returned to the logic of high trading inflation stickiness and higher and longer rate hike. This has caused the US Dollar Index and 10-year U.S. bond yields to soar, which in turn has suppressed the valuation level of global risk assets, especially growth stocks.</p><p>5% of the data is not surprising as expected by the market, and with the background of overseas liquidity tightening trading, A shares will still have some pressure in the short term. However, the main logic of economic recovery has not changed, so there is no need to panic. At the same time, we need to closely track the progress of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Sino-US relations, and make timely positional adjustments and changes.</p><p><b>03</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are the three major engines of global liquidity. The Federal Reserve is most important, but it is going in the direction of higher interest rates for longer. The European Central Bank is not bad either. The market's peak interest expectation for the European Central Bank has exceeded 4%, soaring by 60 basis points in just one month.</p><p>Japan's inflation is also becoming increasingly out of control. In February, the CPI has reached the highest level in 40 years, and the core CPI has exceeded the central bank's 2% inflation target for the 10th consecutive month. Wage growth is a key factor in the BOJ's monetary policy, after Haruhiko Kuroda made a 3% wage increase a prerequisite for ending ultra-loose monetary policy. This year's \"Spring Offensive\" has become a wage negotiation widely followed in the global market.<b>If it reaches more than 3%, Kazuo Ueda may continue to follow the rhythm of interest rate hike in December last year after taking office in April, which will be a big black swan for the global financial market.</b></p><p>If the world's three largest fluid engines stall and last for a long time, what is expected to happen in the world? Others don't know, but one thing that is more certain is that it will not be friendly to risky assets.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/584833\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909f0c076f3fff78497a5c9be00e5429","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/584833","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1173146453","content_text":"鲍威尔以一己之力，干翻全球金融市场。01北京时间3月7日23：00，鲍威尔出席参众两院听证会，作美联储半年度货币政策证词。这是他2月7日以来的首次讲话，也是3月份议息会议之前最后的一次讲话。鲍威尔开门见山说：“近几个月，通胀一直在放缓，但通胀率回落至2％的过程还有很长的路要走，而且可能坎坷。正如我所提到的，最近的经济数据强于预期，这表明，最终的利率水平可能会高于之前的预期。如果整体数据暗示有必要加快（货币）紧缩，我们将准备加快加息步伐。恢复价格稳定可能需要我们一段时间内保持限制性的货币政策立场。”鲍威尔还指出，自去年年中他上次在众议院作证以来，美国通胀增长已经一定程度上缓和，但通胀率还远高于联储的长期目标2％。因为供应链瓶颈缓和，货币紧缩限制了需求，核心商品部门的通胀已经下降。然而，住房以外的核心服务通胀并未下降。鲍威尔超越想象的鹰，不仅终端利率可能要高于此前预期，且加息节奏可能重返50个基点，令金融市场大为错愕。尤其是后者一旦发生，中期上将改变金融市场此前交易“加息放缓至结束”的运行轨迹。据美国联邦基金利率期货交易市场显示，3月份加息50个基点的概率从前一天的30%飙升至70%，加息25个基点的概率从前一天的70%下降至30%。且终端利率预期值在今年6月份达到5.5%-5.75%的概率高达50%左右。鲍威尔这番鹰派十足的表态，暗示2月份美国非农就业以及通胀可能依旧维持1月份的火热态势。其实，我们从已经披露的数据也能端倪一二。2月Markit综合PMI与服务业PMI均升至50上方，均超出此前市场预期，且都创下2022年6月份以来新高，并逆转之前连续7个月萎缩的趋势。其中，就业分项指数终值均升至2022年9月份以来终值新高。这表明2月份美国经济仍然会表现出相当的韧性，且就业市场可能依旧紧俏。欧洲市场通胀高烧不退，也暗示了美国2月通胀情况并不乐观。欧元区2月调和CPI同比上升8.5%，高于预期的8.3%，前值为8.6%。环比看，欧元区2月调和CPI初值环比上升0.8%，高于预期的0.5%，1月则环比下降了0.2%。欧元区2月核心CPI高达5.6%，远超市场预期和1月份的5.3%，再度刷新历史纪录。其中，欧元区经济前3的德国、法国、意大利的2月份核心CPI均超出预期，且刷新本轮通胀纪录。美联储在3月份是否加息50个基点，最终还是取决于本周五的非农数据以及下周二的通胀数据。如果数据仍然超预期火爆，将继续施压风险资产的估值水平。2023年，美联储加息终端利率更高，维持高利率时间越持久，将会是全球金融市场的重大尾部风险。一方面，在利率更高更久的大背景下，货币紧缩的累积性以及滞后性会逐步显现，对于经济的冲击会比较明显，发生经济衰退的可能性会比较大。另一方面，全球货币流动性愈发紧张，会加剧金融全市场大幅波动，养老金、保险公司、对冲基金等非银行金融机构面临冲击与威胁。英国养老金暴雷、瑞士信贷破产风波以及黑石集团债券违约或许只是拉开了前奏。02近来，A股迎来了一波明显调整。为什么？今年GDP预期目标为5%左右。该数据其实落在市场预期5%-5.5%区间下限，预期中位数大致为5.3%。短期看，市场会对此前乐观预期进行一定程度上的修正。在机构看来，数据合理偏保守主要有两方面因素。第一，保持定力，不重走地产老路——全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，着力推动高质量发展。这也意味着对于房地产的刺激会有限度，不会大水漫灌搞强刺激。第二，内外部压力，不确定因素较大——外部环境不确定性加大，全球通胀仍处于高位，世界经济和贸易增长动能减弱，外部打压遏制不断上升。国内经济增长企稳向上基础尚需巩固，需求不足仍是突出矛盾……除5%数据外，还有一个数据比较重要，就是城镇人口新增就业目标1200万人左右。该就业目标是创下了历年新高。要达到这个目标，经济增速就要上去。这里也暗含了今年实际完成的经济目标可能要超越5%。短期看，5%对市场有压力，需修正调整，但就业数据又暗含了未来实际结果可能会超预期，亦是未来有超额收益的来源。对于货币政策的定调，央行执行报告以及政府工作报告均为“稳健的货币政策要精准有力”。且保持广义货币供应量和社会融资规模增速同名义经济增速基本匹配,支持实体经济发展。粗略计算一下，5%的GDP增长以及3%的通胀目标，今年M2的增速很有可能维持在10%以下，而2022年是双位数增长。从这个角度看，今年货币政策再度边际宽松的可能性会比较小，降息降准工具在中短期之内出现几无可能。A股市场分母的定价，除了国内货币政策影响外，还受制于海外流动性的扰动。在付鹏看来，美元利率无论是名义利率还是实际利率，其实是真正决定全球估值的一个重要标。在中国你要做一级市场风投，这个企业到底给30倍还是给60倍不是由人民币利率定的，而是由美元利率决定。因为不管是中国香港公司，还是中国大陆公司，投资什么行业以及公司去美国找一个对标物，去看看估值是什么水平。全球相对创新与领先的公司在美国上市，是以美元计价的。最近1个月，10年期美债收益率从3.4%左右大幅攀升至4%。美股也调整了一个月。对应着国内市场，创业板指和恒生科技指数同期大幅调整。因为这些指数成长性龙头权重较大，受到海外流动性的冲击会更大一些。而上证指数权重在大蓝筹为首的传统行业，受益于经济复苏逻辑，调整幅度相对偏小。近期，外围美股市场重回交易通胀粘性高，加息更高更长的逻辑。这导致美元指数以及10年期美债收益率飙升，进而压制全球风险资产的估值水平，尤其是成长股。5%的数据无市场预期惊喜，叠加海外流动性趋紧交易的大背景，A股短期内仍会有一些压力。不过，经济复苏的主线逻辑没有变化，不必恐慌。同时，我们需要紧密跟踪俄乌冲突以及中美关系的进展，及时做出仓位调整与变化。03美联储、欧洲央行、日本央行是全球流动性的三大发动机。美联储最为重要，但朝着利率更高更久的方向去了。欧洲央行也不赖，市场市场对欧洲央行的利峰值预期已经超过4%，短短一个月内飙升了60个基点。日本方面通胀也愈发失控，2月CPI已经刷新40年之最，核心CPI已经连续第10个月超过央行2%的通胀目标。工资增长是日本央行货币政策的关键因素，此前黑田东彦将3%的工资增长作为结束超宽松货币政策的先决条件。今年“春季攻势”成为全球市场广泛关注的一场工资谈判。如果达到3%以上，植田和男在4月上任之后可能继续沿着去年12月加息的节奏走，对全球金融市场而言会是一大黑天鹅。如果全球三大流动性发动机熄火，且维持时间很长，全球料将发生什么？其它不知道，比较确定的有一点，对风险资产不会友好。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2971,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940415481,"gmtCreate":1678109536244,"gmtModify":1678109539908,"author":{"id":"4090765737044950","authorId":"4090765737044950","name":"猫咪国王","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9b05a625ccb22b4f0458e1a8ba46bd44","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090765737044950","authorIdStr":"4090765737044950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940415481","repostId":"2317178283","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317178283","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678109583,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317178283?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-06 21:33","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Earnings Preview | Southeast Asia's Internet Boom Fades, Sea Q4 Revenue May Show Negative Growth for the First Time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317178283","media":"智通财经","summary":"3月7日美股盘前，“东南亚小腾讯”Sea将公布2022年第四季度及全年业绩。市场预计，该公司Q4营收增长将陷入停滞，大大扭转这家游戏和电子商务巨头曾以三位数的增速成为东南亚互联网繁荣象征的局面。根据分","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Before the U.S. stock market on March 7th, Sea, a \"small Tencent in Southeast Asia\", will announce its fourth quarter and full-year results for 2022. The market expects the company's Q4 revenue growth to grind to a halt, significantly reversing the gaming and e-commerce giant's triple-digit growth as a symbol of Southeast Asia's internet boom.</p><p>Sea's fourth-quarter sales are expected to decline 5.8% year-over-year, according to average analyst estimates, which would be the first decline on record, reflecting the company's withdrawal from Indian, Latin American and European markets, as well as wage freezes and other austerity measures to drive profitability rather than market share growth.</p><p>Despite the unexpected revenue growth of Sea in the fourth quarter, it was also a painful turnaround for Southeast Asia's largest Internet company. At one point in the past, the company was the best-performing stock in the world. Investors poured into the company two years ago, which is backed by Chinese internet giant Tencent (00700) and has benefited from a pandemic-era internet usage boom. But in the aftermath, $166 billion of the stock's market value has wiped off since peaking at $202.6 billion in October 2021, thanks to post-pandemic inflation surging, and fears of a recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc6e3cb3833eb10b4ec4af60f8bfd74f\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>\"Interest rates are likely to remain elevated for longer as inflationary pressures persist, which will make for a challenging year for the Southeast Asian internet sector,\" said Ju Ye Lee, economist at Maybank Investment Banking Group.</p><p>Although, Sea investors may not worry unduly about the rapid dissipation of growth at this time, and may instead focus on the company's profit performance. In recent quarters, Sea has consistently narrowed its losses through measures that include laying off thousands of jobs and a near-total wage freeze.</p><p>However, the decline in revenue will symbolize that investors' love for Southeast Asian internet companies is rapidly cooling. The downward trend was exemplified last year by the collapse of Singapore's fashion retail platform Zilingo Pte and the selloff in the shares of companies such as Singapore's ride-hailing and delivery giant Grab (GRAB.US) and Indonesian tech giant GoTo Group. That has investors focusing more on how Sea-owned Garena and Shopee are performing in controlling costs. While in the long run, investors will want to hear solid plans to reclaim the strong growth that has made Sea the darling of the stock market over the past few years.</p><p>Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Nathan Naidu said: \"Shopee's market leadership and scale should attract more merchants to use higher-margin, transaction-based services, thus helping to improve monetization rates and e-commerce revenue. These factors, coupled with reduced staff costs due to layoffs and promotional expenses, could reduce Sea's net loss to about $400 million in the fourth quarter, down from $484.8 million in the fourth quarter of last year.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Earnings Preview | Southeast Asia's Internet Boom Fades, Sea Q4 Revenue May Show Negative Growth for the First Time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEarnings Preview | Southeast Asia's Internet Boom Fades, Sea Q4 Revenue May Show Negative Growth for the First Time\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-06 21:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Before the U.S. stock market on March 7th, Sea, a \"small Tencent in Southeast Asia\", will announce its fourth quarter and full-year results for 2022. The market expects the company's Q4 revenue growth to grind to a halt, significantly reversing the gaming and e-commerce giant's triple-digit growth as a symbol of Southeast Asia's internet boom.</p><p>Sea's fourth-quarter sales are expected to decline 5.8% year-over-year, according to average analyst estimates, which would be the first decline on record, reflecting the company's withdrawal from Indian, Latin American and European markets, as well as wage freezes and other austerity measures to drive profitability rather than market share growth.</p><p>Despite the unexpected revenue growth of Sea in the fourth quarter, it was also a painful turnaround for Southeast Asia's largest Internet company. At one point in the past, the company was the best-performing stock in the world. Investors poured into the company two years ago, which is backed by Chinese internet giant Tencent (00700) and has benefited from a pandemic-era internet usage boom. But in the aftermath, $166 billion of the stock's market value has wiped off since peaking at $202.6 billion in October 2021, thanks to post-pandemic inflation surging, and fears of a recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc6e3cb3833eb10b4ec4af60f8bfd74f\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>\"Interest rates are likely to remain elevated for longer as inflationary pressures persist, which will make for a challenging year for the Southeast Asian internet sector,\" said Ju Ye Lee, economist at Maybank Investment Banking Group.</p><p>Although, Sea investors may not worry unduly about the rapid dissipation of growth at this time, and may instead focus on the company's profit performance. In recent quarters, Sea has consistently narrowed its losses through measures that include laying off thousands of jobs and a near-total wage freeze.</p><p>However, the decline in revenue will symbolize that investors' love for Southeast Asian internet companies is rapidly cooling. The downward trend was exemplified last year by the collapse of Singapore's fashion retail platform Zilingo Pte and the selloff in the shares of companies such as Singapore's ride-hailing and delivery giant Grab (GRAB.US) and Indonesian tech giant GoTo Group. That has investors focusing more on how Sea-owned Garena and Shopee are performing in controlling costs. While in the long run, investors will want to hear solid plans to reclaim the strong growth that has made Sea the darling of the stock market over the past few years.</p><p>Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Nathan Naidu said: \"Shopee's market leadership and scale should attract more merchants to use higher-margin, transaction-based services, thus helping to improve monetization rates and e-commerce revenue. These factors, coupled with reduced staff costs due to layoffs and promotional expenses, could reduce Sea's net loss to about $400 million in the fourth quarter, down from $484.8 million in the fourth quarter of last year.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/887542.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41bbb447b77f48f3eaf5c5a8c43fa372","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/887542.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317178283","content_text":"3月7日美股盘前，“东南亚小腾讯”Sea将公布2022年第四季度及全年业绩。市场预计，该公司Q4营收增长将陷入停滞，大大扭转这家游戏和电子商务巨头曾以三位数的增速成为东南亚互联网繁荣象征的局面。根据分析师的平均预期，Sea第四季度销售额预计同比下降5.8%，这将是有记录以来的首次下滑，反映出该公司从印度、拉美和欧洲市场撤出，以及冻结工资和其他紧缩开支措施，以推动盈利能力而非市场份额增长。尽管Sea第四季度营收能意外实现增长，但对这家东南亚最大的互联网公司来说，这也是一个痛苦的转变。过去，该公司一度是全球表现最好的股票。两年前，投资者纷纷涌入该公司，该公司得到了中国互联网巨头腾讯(00700)的支持，并在疫情时期的网络使用热潮中获益。但在随后，由于疫情后通胀飙升，以及对经济衰退的担忧，自2021年10月达到2026亿美元的峰值以来，该股市值蒸发了1660亿美元。Maybank Investment Banking Group经济学家Ju Ye Lee表示：“随着通胀压力的持续，利率可能会在更长的时间内保持较高水平，这将为东南亚互联网行业带来挑战性的一年。”虽然，Sea投资者目前可能不会过度担心增长的迅速消散，而是可能会关注该公司的利润表现。最近几个季度，Sea通过采取包括裁员数千人和几乎全面冻结工资在内的措施，持续地缩小亏损。但是，营收的下降将象征着投资者对东南亚互联网公司的喜爱正在迅速降温。去年，新加坡时尚零售平台Zilingo Pte的倒闭，以及新加坡叫车和外卖巨头Grab(GRAB.US)和印度尼西亚科技巨头GoTo Group等公司的股票遭遇抛售，都体现了这一下滑趋势。这让投资者更多地将焦点放在Sea旗下Garena和Shopee在控制成本方面的表现。而从长远来看，投资者将希望听到可靠的计划，以夺回过去几年让Sea成为股市宠儿的强劲增长。Bloomberg Intelligence分析师Nathan Naidu表示：“Shopee的市场领导地位和规模应该会吸引更多的商家使用利润率更高、基于交易的服务，从而帮助提高货币化率和电商营收。这些因素，再加上裁员和促销支出带来的员工成本降低，可能会使Sea第四季度的净亏损降至约4亿美元，低于上年第四季度的4.848亿美元。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940801021,"gmtCreate":1677778766464,"gmtModify":1677778770119,"author":{"id":"4090765737044950","authorId":"4090765737044950","name":"猫咪国王","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9b05a625ccb22b4f0458e1a8ba46bd44","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090765737044950","authorIdStr":"4090765737044950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940801021","repostId":"2316495692","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2316495692","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1677772257,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2316495692?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-02 23:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"War without smoke again! The Fed is dead?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2316495692","media":"金十数据","summary":"华尔街有一则投资箴言：“别和美联储作对。”或许这话只说对了一半？与其交易鲍威尔讲话，不如交易……","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>There's an investment motto on Wall Street: \"Don't go against the Fed.\" Perhaps that's only half true? Instead of trading Powell's speech, it is better to trade... March 17th will be the first anniversary of the current rate hike of the Federal Reserve. Since the Federal Reserve started the rate hike cycle, the smokeless war between the market and Powell has begun. As a result, the market has been repeatedly \"beaten\", so that many people have deeply realized one sentence:</p><p>\"Don't go against the Fed.\" Nowadays, investors seem to be more willing to pay attention to and trade the speeches of Powell and other Fed officials, but we think that investors should not be too \"superstitious about the Fed\", otherwise they may be more vulnerable to \"critical attack\". If you don't believe me, let's take a look.</p><p>rate hike 1st Anniversary: How Are Markets and the Economy Performing?</p><p>The entire market had a thrilling year after the Federal Reserve turned on its rate hike and raised interest rates by 425 basis points.</p><p>Investors sell everything, global<b>Stock market</b>Trillions of dollars evaporated from market capitalization.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28e0b47d9cb293b86065b106d653cab\" tg-width=\"1032\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Non-U.S. currencies</b>General decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd82d4ac907d7fc330c68e8d8acfc610\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Commodities</b>Performance is hard to describe,<b>Gold</b>Failed to act as a tool to fight inflation, known as the \"leader of the global economy\"<b>Copper price</b>Flash a recession signal,<b>Crude oil and natural gas</b>Prices rose to multi-year highs, adding to inflation the central bank has been trying to tame.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb402226f274ae98e8000e791f7dd969\" tg-width=\"1032\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Cryptocurrency</b>Experienced a \"cliff-like\" decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a42e248f8ed2bf9b4daff7da0a726a1\" tg-width=\"1044\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Even what has always been considered the safest asset<b>U.S. debt</b>, also experienced its most terrible decline in 50 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/584250eb939f26817eb0a753ba12e1d8\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The good news is that after last year's Fed rate hike at its most aggressive pace since the 1980s, the current rate hike has gradually dropped back to 25 basis points from the previous 75 basis points.</p><p>But the bad news is that as of February this year, the Fed has accumulated 450 basis points of rate hike, but<b>Has not been effective in curbing inflation</b>。 The \"shelling\" of a series of strong data in February may mean that the Fed's efforts to fight inflation have failed.</p><p>Although<b>CPI annual rate</b>It has dropped to 5.5%, well below last year's peak of 9%, but it is still well above the Fed's target and even shows stickiness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9465bba9a8a24e8ebd69a58fa120d1f0\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Job market</b>It also showed surprising resilience, so much so that even Robert Reich, the former US secretary of labor, said disappointedly: \"<b>The Federal Reserve is Dead</b>。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e46ae8f7fa66d98726d85a7df19482e\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Of course, the Fed can't be all to blame for this either, as part of the reason for inflation is geopolitical conflicts, the pandemic, and problems with the supply of commodities and components.</p><p>But even if we only look at the situation in the United States,<b>The Fed's rate hike won't actually help slow price rises, and may even have the opposite effect</b>。</p><p>It's very simple,<u>If you were the boss of a large company, would you take the initiative to cut prices on goods and put up with reduced profits before the Fed rate hike caused a recession? Obviously, any normal boss would not do this. On the contrary, they would try to keep the price high for as long as possible.</u></p><p>Only when high interest rates start to hurt consumers so much that they can't afford high-priced goods will businesses be forced to cut prices. In other words, relying on the Federal Reserve's rate hike alone to curb inflation is probably not quite feasible.</p><p>Wars without smoke are played out frequently</p><p>Of course, whether rate hike can curb inflation or not,<b>The market \"bleeding\" won't stop as long as the Fed is in rate hike</b>。</p><p>There's a famous saying in the investment community: \"Don't go against the Fed.\"</p><p>But it turns out that for most of the past year, traders and investors have ignored this phrase, losing frequently in confrontations with the Fed.</p><p>This phenomenon was evident when the Federal Reserve just started its rate hike,<b>It was when inflation continued to soar and the Fed's pivot to its most hawkish policy stance in decades surprised investors, triggering a market crash</b>Investor losses also mainly occurred in the first few months of the Fed's rate hike cycle, specifically before mid-May last year.</p><p>Even as investors began to accept expectations by mid-May last year that the Fed would bring its rate hike to around 5%,<b>Investors still don't believe the Fed will be as tough as they say it will be.</b></p><p>And then they started betting that the Fed would eventually be forced to abandon its pledge to \"keep interest rates high for the long term\" and would start cutting rates this year and trade accordingly. So in mid-May last year, the S&P 500 began to rebound.</p><p>Does the story sound familiar?</p><p>That's right,<b>At the beginning of the year, the market staged this scenario again</b>: Although Powell and other Fed officials have repeatedly emphasized the higher terminal interest rate and the need to keep interest rates high, investors still believe that the Fed is bluffing, and they can't wait to bet that the Fed will announce interest rate cuts in the second half of this year.</p><p>As a result, we all know that the data in February directly \"beat the heads\" of these overly optimistic investors.</p><p>Serious communication problems?</p><p>Some analysts believe that the reason why the market keeps opposing the Fed is,<b>It could be because the Fed has credibility or communication problems, or both</b>。</p><p>In fact,<b>In most cases, investors don't listen to what Powell said, but only listen to what they want to hear, so Powell often hawks, and the market still rises; Or the situation where Powell releases pigeons and the market falls.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7074d9c4bc3a939b7c95dc4e55caaef7\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>For example, on November 30th last year, February 1st and February 7th this year, Powell made three speeches to release pigeons. Logically speaking, this should be said to be a big positive for the stock market. However, after his dovish speech, the market fell instead.</p><p>Take the Feb. 7 speech, when Powell claimed:</p><p>\"We think we will need further rate hike. The labor market is exceptionally strong. If the employment situation remains hot, it is likely that we will have to do more... Last Friday's stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls report indicates that (inflation-fighting) this is going to be a long process.\" While he also said:</p><p>\"The anti-inflation process has begun, and the Federal Reserve expects that the current rate hike will be appropriate, but it still has not reached a sufficiently restrictive level.\" Regarding this speech, Stephen Innes, an analyst at SPI Asset Management, analyzed that,<b>Powell hasn't gone to great lengths to weigh down markets with hawkish rhetoric</b>。 Powell's remarks further confirmed that the Fed is open to broader brokerage data and policy outcomes as tightening moves into a late-cycle adjustment phase. That is, they will cut rates if and only if the data gives them absolute confidence that the fight against inflation has won and that a more positive growth outlook does not pose the risk of inflation accelerating again.</p><p>However, Innes says:</p><p>\"One thing to know, no matter how optimistic the market is, is that in an environment where the dollar is strong, interest rates are rising, and the financial environment is tightening, any soft landing cannot be without pain.\" It follows that Powell's pigeon-in-the-eagle speech failed to boost market sentiment,<b>What markets heard was that the Fed would keep tightening and that a soft landing would be hard to avoid, so they started selling stocks</b>。</p><p>Powell Ignorance?!</p><p>So does that mean that paying attention to and trading the speeches of Powell and other Fed officials will ensure nothing is foolproof?</p><p>I'm afraid it's not that simple.</p><p>According to Brent Donnelly, president of analytics firm Spectra Markets:</p><p>\"Powell doesn't know more about the economic outlook than you do, so I've been stressing that the market should trade in economic data, not Powell's speech.\" Donnelly's remark is not unreasonable.</p><p>In the past two years, Powell has been \"slapped in the face\" by the market many times, the most typical example of which is his \"<b>Inflation temporary theory</b>”。</p><p>Back in February 2021, Powell said that a one-off price increase wouldn't necessarily drive up inflation, and the result?</p><p>In May 2021, CPI soared to 5% annually from 1.7% in February, when Powell still insisted: \"<b>High inflation is only temporary</b>。”</p><p>In August of that year, CPI rose to 5.3% annually, and Powell vowed: \"<b>Inflationary pressures will ease in the first half of next year</b>。”</p><p>In November of that year, the annual CPI rate rose to 6.8%, and Powell continued to talk hard: \"<b>Inflation is well above target, but we are very well positioned for interest rates, inflation and a strong economy</b>。”</p><p>By February 2022, the annual CPI rate was on a rocket, rising to 7.9%, and Powell finally let go: \"<b>Inflation is expected to move higher this year, but lower than last year's</b>。”</p><p>In the following year, the Federal Reserve finally started a rate hike to curb inflation, but it was still criticized by the market because it started the rate hike cycle too late and inflation became increasingly stubborn.</p><p>This example is a good illustration that Fed officials, led by Powell, know no more than the rest of the market.</p><p>At the beginning of February this year, after the Federal Reserve reduced the rate hike from the last 50 basis points to 25 basis points, the non-agricultural and CPI data greatly exceeded expectations, once again hitting Powell's face, who had previously indicated that the anti-inflation process had started.</p><p>In addition, Nick Timiraos, who is known as the \"Fed's megaphone\", said before the Fed's rate hike in February,<b>Fed officials, like ordinary investors, are unsure about the lag in rate hike.</b></p><p>Some Fed officials say interest rate movements affect the economy more quickly because the Fed communicates its policy intentions more clearly than in the past. The Fed 30 years ago didn't communicate to the public in advance whether it would make any interest rate adjustments at meetings. Fed Governor Waller believes:</p><p>\"The markets at the time had to take the time to figure out that the Fed was taking action. In this case, it took a while for policy to affect the economy; by contrast, today's Fed provided guidance for its future actions, which shortened the lag. I think a lot of the effects of monetary policy will be more visible in the next quarter.\" But it was also argued that this ignored important changes that extended the lag. Even if Fed officials shortened the time between changing interest rates and affecting financial conditions, they did not shorten the time for financial markets to affect economic activity.</p><p>In short, at present, no one, including the Federal Reserve, can say clearly how long the impact of rate hike on the economy will lag, which is actually an important manifestation of \"Powell's (or the Federal Reserve's) ignorance\".</p><p>So, for investors,<b>\"Don't go against the Fed\" may be an investment motto, but \"Don't be too superstitious about the Fed\" is probably just as important.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>War without smoke again! The Fed is dead?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWar without smoke again! The Fed is dead?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-02 23:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>There's an investment motto on Wall Street: \"Don't go against the Fed.\" Perhaps that's only half true? Instead of trading Powell's speech, it is better to trade... March 17th will be the first anniversary of the current rate hike of the Federal Reserve. Since the Federal Reserve started the rate hike cycle, the smokeless war between the market and Powell has begun. As a result, the market has been repeatedly \"beaten\", so that many people have deeply realized one sentence:</p><p>\"Don't go against the Fed.\" Nowadays, investors seem to be more willing to pay attention to and trade the speeches of Powell and other Fed officials, but we think that investors should not be too \"superstitious about the Fed\", otherwise they may be more vulnerable to \"critical attack\". If you don't believe me, let's take a look.</p><p>rate hike 1st Anniversary: How Are Markets and the Economy Performing?</p><p>The entire market had a thrilling year after the Federal Reserve turned on its rate hike and raised interest rates by 425 basis points.</p><p>Investors sell everything, global<b>Stock market</b>Trillions of dollars evaporated from market capitalization.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28e0b47d9cb293b86065b106d653cab\" tg-width=\"1032\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Non-U.S. currencies</b>General decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd82d4ac907d7fc330c68e8d8acfc610\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Commodities</b>Performance is hard to describe,<b>Gold</b>Failed to act as a tool to fight inflation, known as the \"leader of the global economy\"<b>Copper price</b>Flash a recession signal,<b>Crude oil and natural gas</b>Prices rose to multi-year highs, adding to inflation the central bank has been trying to tame.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb402226f274ae98e8000e791f7dd969\" tg-width=\"1032\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Cryptocurrency</b>Experienced a \"cliff-like\" decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a42e248f8ed2bf9b4daff7da0a726a1\" tg-width=\"1044\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Even what has always been considered the safest asset<b>U.S. debt</b>, also experienced its most terrible decline in 50 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/584250eb939f26817eb0a753ba12e1d8\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The good news is that after last year's Fed rate hike at its most aggressive pace since the 1980s, the current rate hike has gradually dropped back to 25 basis points from the previous 75 basis points.</p><p>But the bad news is that as of February this year, the Fed has accumulated 450 basis points of rate hike, but<b>Has not been effective in curbing inflation</b>。 The \"shelling\" of a series of strong data in February may mean that the Fed's efforts to fight inflation have failed.</p><p>Although<b>CPI annual rate</b>It has dropped to 5.5%, well below last year's peak of 9%, but it is still well above the Fed's target and even shows stickiness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9465bba9a8a24e8ebd69a58fa120d1f0\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Job market</b>It also showed surprising resilience, so much so that even Robert Reich, the former US secretary of labor, said disappointedly: \"<b>The Federal Reserve is Dead</b>。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e46ae8f7fa66d98726d85a7df19482e\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Of course, the Fed can't be all to blame for this either, as part of the reason for inflation is geopolitical conflicts, the pandemic, and problems with the supply of commodities and components.</p><p>But even if we only look at the situation in the United States,<b>The Fed's rate hike won't actually help slow price rises, and may even have the opposite effect</b>。</p><p>It's very simple,<u>If you were the boss of a large company, would you take the initiative to cut prices on goods and put up with reduced profits before the Fed rate hike caused a recession? Obviously, any normal boss would not do this. On the contrary, they would try to keep the price high for as long as possible.</u></p><p>Only when high interest rates start to hurt consumers so much that they can't afford high-priced goods will businesses be forced to cut prices. In other words, relying on the Federal Reserve's rate hike alone to curb inflation is probably not quite feasible.</p><p>Wars without smoke are played out frequently</p><p>Of course, whether rate hike can curb inflation or not,<b>The market \"bleeding\" won't stop as long as the Fed is in rate hike</b>。</p><p>There's a famous saying in the investment community: \"Don't go against the Fed.\"</p><p>But it turns out that for most of the past year, traders and investors have ignored this phrase, losing frequently in confrontations with the Fed.</p><p>This phenomenon was evident when the Federal Reserve just started its rate hike,<b>It was when inflation continued to soar and the Fed's pivot to its most hawkish policy stance in decades surprised investors, triggering a market crash</b>Investor losses also mainly occurred in the first few months of the Fed's rate hike cycle, specifically before mid-May last year.</p><p>Even as investors began to accept expectations by mid-May last year that the Fed would bring its rate hike to around 5%,<b>Investors still don't believe the Fed will be as tough as they say it will be.</b></p><p>And then they started betting that the Fed would eventually be forced to abandon its pledge to \"keep interest rates high for the long term\" and would start cutting rates this year and trade accordingly. So in mid-May last year, the S&P 500 began to rebound.</p><p>Does the story sound familiar?</p><p>That's right,<b>At the beginning of the year, the market staged this scenario again</b>: Although Powell and other Fed officials have repeatedly emphasized the higher terminal interest rate and the need to keep interest rates high, investors still believe that the Fed is bluffing, and they can't wait to bet that the Fed will announce interest rate cuts in the second half of this year.</p><p>As a result, we all know that the data in February directly \"beat the heads\" of these overly optimistic investors.</p><p>Serious communication problems?</p><p>Some analysts believe that the reason why the market keeps opposing the Fed is,<b>It could be because the Fed has credibility or communication problems, or both</b>。</p><p>In fact,<b>In most cases, investors don't listen to what Powell said, but only listen to what they want to hear, so Powell often hawks, and the market still rises; Or the situation where Powell releases pigeons and the market falls.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7074d9c4bc3a939b7c95dc4e55caaef7\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>For example, on November 30th last year, February 1st and February 7th this year, Powell made three speeches to release pigeons. Logically speaking, this should be said to be a big positive for the stock market. However, after his dovish speech, the market fell instead.</p><p>Take the Feb. 7 speech, when Powell claimed:</p><p>\"We think we will need further rate hike. The labor market is exceptionally strong. If the employment situation remains hot, it is likely that we will have to do more... Last Friday's stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls report indicates that (inflation-fighting) this is going to be a long process.\" While he also said:</p><p>\"The anti-inflation process has begun, and the Federal Reserve expects that the current rate hike will be appropriate, but it still has not reached a sufficiently restrictive level.\" Regarding this speech, Stephen Innes, an analyst at SPI Asset Management, analyzed that,<b>Powell hasn't gone to great lengths to weigh down markets with hawkish rhetoric</b>。 Powell's remarks further confirmed that the Fed is open to broader brokerage data and policy outcomes as tightening moves into a late-cycle adjustment phase. That is, they will cut rates if and only if the data gives them absolute confidence that the fight against inflation has won and that a more positive growth outlook does not pose the risk of inflation accelerating again.</p><p>However, Innes says:</p><p>\"One thing to know, no matter how optimistic the market is, is that in an environment where the dollar is strong, interest rates are rising, and the financial environment is tightening, any soft landing cannot be without pain.\" It follows that Powell's pigeon-in-the-eagle speech failed to boost market sentiment,<b>What markets heard was that the Fed would keep tightening and that a soft landing would be hard to avoid, so they started selling stocks</b>。</p><p>Powell Ignorance?!</p><p>So does that mean that paying attention to and trading the speeches of Powell and other Fed officials will ensure nothing is foolproof?</p><p>I'm afraid it's not that simple.</p><p>According to Brent Donnelly, president of analytics firm Spectra Markets:</p><p>\"Powell doesn't know more about the economic outlook than you do, so I've been stressing that the market should trade in economic data, not Powell's speech.\" Donnelly's remark is not unreasonable.</p><p>In the past two years, Powell has been \"slapped in the face\" by the market many times, the most typical example of which is his \"<b>Inflation temporary theory</b>”。</p><p>Back in February 2021, Powell said that a one-off price increase wouldn't necessarily drive up inflation, and the result?</p><p>In May 2021, CPI soared to 5% annually from 1.7% in February, when Powell still insisted: \"<b>High inflation is only temporary</b>。”</p><p>In August of that year, CPI rose to 5.3% annually, and Powell vowed: \"<b>Inflationary pressures will ease in the first half of next year</b>。”</p><p>In November of that year, the annual CPI rate rose to 6.8%, and Powell continued to talk hard: \"<b>Inflation is well above target, but we are very well positioned for interest rates, inflation and a strong economy</b>。”</p><p>By February 2022, the annual CPI rate was on a rocket, rising to 7.9%, and Powell finally let go: \"<b>Inflation is expected to move higher this year, but lower than last year's</b>。”</p><p>In the following year, the Federal Reserve finally started a rate hike to curb inflation, but it was still criticized by the market because it started the rate hike cycle too late and inflation became increasingly stubborn.</p><p>This example is a good illustration that Fed officials, led by Powell, know no more than the rest of the market.</p><p>At the beginning of February this year, after the Federal Reserve reduced the rate hike from the last 50 basis points to 25 basis points, the non-agricultural and CPI data greatly exceeded expectations, once again hitting Powell's face, who had previously indicated that the anti-inflation process had started.</p><p>In addition, Nick Timiraos, who is known as the \"Fed's megaphone\", said before the Fed's rate hike in February,<b>Fed officials, like ordinary investors, are unsure about the lag in rate hike.</b></p><p>Some Fed officials say interest rate movements affect the economy more quickly because the Fed communicates its policy intentions more clearly than in the past. The Fed 30 years ago didn't communicate to the public in advance whether it would make any interest rate adjustments at meetings. Fed Governor Waller believes:</p><p>\"The markets at the time had to take the time to figure out that the Fed was taking action. In this case, it took a while for policy to affect the economy; by contrast, today's Fed provided guidance for its future actions, which shortened the lag. I think a lot of the effects of monetary policy will be more visible in the next quarter.\" But it was also argued that this ignored important changes that extended the lag. Even if Fed officials shortened the time between changing interest rates and affecting financial conditions, they did not shorten the time for financial markets to affect economic activity.</p><p>In short, at present, no one, including the Federal Reserve, can say clearly how long the impact of rate hike on the economy will lag, which is actually an important manifestation of \"Powell's (or the Federal Reserve's) ignorance\".</p><p>So, for investors,<b>\"Don't go against the Fed\" may be an investment motto, but \"Don't be too superstitious about the Fed\" is probably just as important.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=107678&type=news&data_type=0\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6500520b6c72e4650ea6c53cb7c59999","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念",".DJI":"道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=107678&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2316495692","content_text":"华尔街有一则投资箴言：“别和美联储作对。”或许这话只说对了一半？与其交易鲍威尔讲话，不如交易……3月17日将是美联储本轮加息一周年的日子，自美联储开启加息周期以来，市场跟鲍威尔之间没有硝烟的战争就开始了，结果市场被反复“吊打”，以至于很多人都深刻认识到一句话：“别跟美联储作对。”如今，投资者似乎更愿意关注并交易鲍威尔及其他美联储官员的讲话，但是我们认为，投资者也不宜过于“迷信美联储”，否则恐怕更容易遭到“暴击”，不信就一起来看看吧。加息一周年：市场和经济表现如何？在美联储开启加息并将利率提高425个基点后，整个市场经历了惊心动魄的一年。投资者抛售一切，全球股市市值蒸发数万亿美元。非美货币普遍下跌。大宗商品表现一言难尽，黄金未能充当抗通胀的工具，有“全球经济领头羊”之称的铜价闪现出衰退信号，原油和天然气价格则涨至多年新高，加剧了央行一直想抑制的通胀。加密货币经历了“断崖式”下跌。就连向来被视为最安全资产的美债，也经历了50年来最可怕的下跌。好消息是，在去年美联储以1980年代以来最激进的速度加息之后，目前加息幅度已经从此前的75个基点逐步回落到25个基点。但坏消息是，截至今年2月，美联储累计已经加息450个基点，但是对于抑制通胀问题并没有奏效。2月份一系列强劲数据的“炮轰”，可能意味着美联储抗通胀的努力失败了。尽管CPI年率已经降至5.5%，远低于去年9%的峰值，但是仍远高于美联储的目标，甚至还显现出粘性。就业市场也显示出惊人的弹性，以至于连美国前劳工部部长Robert Reich都失望地表示：“美联储已死。”当然，这也不能全怪美联储，因为造成通胀的部分原因是地缘冲突、疫情以及大宗商品和零部件的供应问题。不过，就算只看美国国内的情况，美联储加息其实也无助于减缓物价上涨，甚至可能会产生相反的结果。很简单，假如你是一家大公司的老板，你会在美联储加息导致经济衰退之前主动给商品降价，并忍受利润减少吗？很显然，任何一个正常的老板，都不会这么做，相反，他们会尽可能地将价格长时间维持在高位。只有当高利率开始损害到消费者的利益，以至于他们买不起高价商品时，企业才会被迫降价。换句话说，仅靠美联储加息来抑制通胀，恐怕不太行得通。没有硝烟的战争频频上演当然了，不管加息能否抑制通胀，只要美联储还在加息，市场“流血”就不会停止。投资界有一句名言：“别和美联储作对。”但是事实证明，在过去1年的大部分时间里，交易员和投资者都忽略了这句话，以至于在跟美联储的对抗中频频落败。这一现象在美联储刚刚开启加息时表现得十分明显，当时通胀持续飙升，而美联储转向几十年来最为鹰派的政策立场令投资者感到意外，从而引发市场崩盘，投资者的损失也主要出现在美联储加息周期最初的几个月里，具体来说是去年5月中旬以前。即使到去年5月中旬，投资者开始接受美联储将加息到5%左右的预期，但是投资者仍不相信美联储会像他们所说的那样强硬。当时他们就开始押注，美联储最终将被迫放弃其“将利率长期维持在高位”的承诺，并将于今年开始降息，并据此进行交易。因此，去年5月中旬，标普500指数开始出现反弹。这个故事听起来是不是很熟悉？没错，今年年初，市场再次上演这一场景：尽管鲍威尔和其他美联储官员都在反复强调更高的终端利率及其将利率维持在高位的必要性，但是投资者仍认为美联储是在虚张声势，他们开始迫不及待地押注美联储将于今年下半年宣布降息。结果我们都清楚，2月份的数据直接将这些过分乐观的投资者“打爆头”。严重的沟通问题？有分析师认为，市场之所以不停地反对美联储，可能是因为美联储存在信誉或者沟通问题，或者二者皆有。事实上，在大多数情况下，投资者都不听鲍威尔说了什么，而是只听他们自己想听的，所以才会经常出现鲍威尔放鹰，市场还是上涨了；或者鲍威尔放鸽，市场却下跌的情况。例如在去年11月30日、今年2月1日和2月7日，鲍威尔三次讲话放鸽，按道理来说，这对股市来说应该说是个大利好，然而在其发表鸽派讲话之后，市场反而下跌了。以2月7日的讲话为例，当时鲍威尔声称：“我们认为我们将需要进一步加息。劳动力市场异常强劲。如果就业形势仍然很热，很可能我们必须做更多的事情......上周五的非农就业报告强于预期，表明（抗通胀）这将是一个漫长的过程。”同时他还表示：“反通胀的进程已经开始，美联储预计目前的加息将是适当的，但仍未达到足够限制性的水平。”对于这一讲话，SPI资管公司分析师Stephen Innes分析称，鲍威尔并没有不遗余力地用鹰派言论来打压市场。鲍威尔的讲话更证实了一点，即随着紧缩政策进入周期后期的调整阶段，美联储对更广泛的经纪数据和政策结果持开放态度。也就是说，当且仅当数据让他们有绝对信心，相信抗击通胀的努力已经取得了胜利，更积极的增长前景不会带来通胀再次加速的风险时，他们才会降息。不过，Innes表示：“无论市场如何乐观，要知道的一点是，在美元走强、利率上升，金融环境收紧的环境中，任何软着陆都不可能没有痛苦。”由此可见，鲍威尔鹰中有鸽的讲话并未能提振市场情绪，市场听到的是美联储将持续收紧，经济软着陆将难以避免，因此开始抛售股票。鲍威尔无知？！那么，这是否意味着，关注并交易鲍威尔及其他美联储官员的讲话，就能确保万无一失呢？事情恐怕也没有这么简单。分析公司Spectra Markets的总裁布伦特·唐纳利（Brent Donnelly）认为：“对于经济前景，鲍威尔知道的并不比你多，因此我一直在强调，市场应该交易的是经济数据，而非鲍威尔讲话。”唐纳利此话不无道理。过去2年，鲍威尔多次被市场“打脸”，其中最典型的例子就是他的“通胀暂时论”。早在2021年2月，鲍威尔就表示，一次性的物价上涨不一定会推升通胀，结果呢？2021年5月，CPI年率就从2月份的1.7%飙升至5%，彼时鲍威尔仍坚持称：“高通胀只是暂时的。”当年8月，CPI年率升至5.3%，鲍威尔又信誓旦旦表示：“通胀压力明年上半年就会缓解。”当年11月，CPI年率涨至6.8%，鲍威尔继续嘴硬：“通胀远高于目标，但是我们在利率、通胀和强劲经济方面处于非常有利的地位。”到2022年2月，CPI年率坐上火箭，涨至7.9%，鲍威尔终于松口：“预计今年通胀将走高，但低于去年的通胀。”在此后的一年里，美联储终于开始加息以抑制通胀，但是仍遭到市场的抨击，因为太晚开启加息周期，通胀越来越顽固。这个例子就很好地说明，以鲍威尔为首的美联储官员，知道的并不比市场其他人多。今年2月初，美联储将加息幅度从上一次的50个基点降至25个基点后，非农、CPI数据又大超预期，再次打了此前表明反通胀进程已经开启的鲍威尔的脸。另外，有着“美联储传声筒”之称的Nick 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23:48","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"UBS: First to give Ctrip (TCOM.O) a neutral rating.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2268614745","media":"媒体滚动","summary":"瑞银：首予携程网(TCOM.O)中性评级。","content":"<p><html><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>: First grant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip</a>(TCOM.O) Neutral rating.</body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>UBS: First to give Ctrip (TCOM.O) a neutral rating.</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/7x24/2022-09-16/doc-imqqsmrn9394645.shtml\">媒体滚动</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TCOM":"携程网"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/7x24/2022-09-16/doc-imqqsmrn9394645.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2268614745","content_text":"瑞银：首予携程网(TCOM.O)中性评级。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TCOM":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937983257,"gmtCreate":1663341401080,"gmtModify":1676537256018,"author":{"id":"4090765737044950","authorId":"4090765737044950","name":"猫咪国王","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9b05a625ccb22b4f0458e1a8ba46bd44","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090765737044950","authorIdStr":"4090765737044950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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