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猫咪国王
投资理财爱好者
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猫咪国王
2023-04-19
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猫咪国王
2023-04-03
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Big option | Bank stocks counterattack, and there are obvious differences between long and short sides! Do more money bets, can Carnival Cruises live up to expectations?
猫咪国王
2023-04-03
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猫咪国王
2023-03-09
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猫咪国王
2023-03-06
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猫咪国王
2023-03-03
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War without smoke again! The Fed is dead?
猫咪国王
2022-11-22
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@财见:企鵝蘭登書屋收購西蒙與舒斯特的交易將告吹
猫咪国王
2022-10-03
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
good
猫咪国王
2022-09-29
$百度(BIDU)$
how?
猫咪国王
2022-09-29
$百度(BIDU)$
good?
猫咪国王
2022-09-29
$英伟达(NVDA)$
long term
猫咪国王
2022-09-28
$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$
Ku
猫咪国王
2022-09-26
$花旗(C)$
hope?
猫咪国王
2022-09-26
$花旗(C)$
hope?
猫咪国王
2022-09-20
$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$
good!
猫咪国王
2022-09-18
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UBS: First to give Ctrip (TCOM.O) a neutral rating.
猫咪国王
2022-09-16
$英伟达(NVDA)$
ok
猫咪国王
2022-09-15
$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$
Buy
猫咪国王
2022-09-15
$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$
Good
猫咪国王
2022-09-13
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$
still good
Go to Tiger App to see more news
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14:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Big option | Bank stocks counterattack, and there are obvious differences between long and short sides! Do more money bets, can Carnival Cruises live up to expectations?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178785059","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要:美东时间3月27日,期权市场总成交量达31,161,419.张合约,其中,看涨期权占比54%。特斯拉、苹果等明星股看涨期权的成交量特别高;做多资金押注,嘉年华邮轮能否不负众望?一、市场概览美东时","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract: On March 27th, Eastern Time, the total trading volume of the options market reached 31,161,419 contracts, of which call options accounted for 54%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The volume of call options on other star stocks is particularly high; Make long money bets,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival Cruises</a>Can it live up to expectations?</b><b>Market Overview</b></p><p>On March 27th, Eastern Time, U.S. stocks closed mixed on Monday, and bank stocks generally rose. First Citizens Bank Acquisition<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>All deposits and loans, and the U.S. authorities are considering helping<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>News such as strengthening the balance sheet boosted market sentiment. However, the overall market is still in a tepid state. This also reflects signs of a lack of direction in the market as a whole after the banking crisis. By the close, the Dow Jones was up 0.6%, the Nasdaq was down 0.47% and the S&P 500 was up 0.16%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6039ae90374132fafc810a91f224e3eb\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"152\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Tiger International</span></p><p>On Monday, the options market had a total volume of 31,161,419 contracts, of which calls accounted for 54%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0369686ff54cd71e80033330dc6cfd96\" tg-width=\"1786\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p>S&P ETF-SPY options traded 7.85 million contracts, of which put options accounted for 53%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10baa7de6fbb69852ae21f65aacb209a\" tg-width=\"1615\" tg-height=\"411\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>TOP10 Total Option Trading Volume</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cdaa6d1299aa61d03a2f31ea6615449\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"1409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Tiger International</span></p><p><b>Tesla</b>It rose 0.74% to $191,81 on Monday. 1.286 million options contracts were traded, and call options accounted for 61% of all options trades. Exercise price of $200 due March 31, 2023<b>Call Option</b>of was particularly high, with 106,046 trades.</p><p>In the news: Tesla's Berlin factory broke through the key production node three months ahead of schedule, with weekly output exceeding 5,000 vehicles.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c0c1cffb8631554864e2e19e61aee6\" tg-width=\"1647\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>Apple</b>It fell 1.23% at $158,28 on Monday. 722,700 options contracts were traded, and call options accounted for 51% of all options traded. Exercise price of $160 due March 31, 2023<b>Call Option</b>of was particularly high, with 67,816 trades.</p><p>News: Apple's low-key expansion of \"AI arsenal\" quietly acquired WaveOne, a video AI startup.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f23602c67a8979722704d6166a7f85d2\" tg-width=\"1647\" tg-height=\"267\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Up nearly 5% on Monday</b>, quoted $28,49. 503,500 options contracts were traded, and call options accounted for 51% of all options traded. Exercise price of $29 due March 31, 2023<b>Call Option</b>of was particularly high, with 22,607 trades. This means that in the options market, investors are betting on a short-term rally or near a peak in the stock.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b34d17be11e67e68cc456b370effe6c\" tg-width=\"1646\" tg-height=\"266\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>3. Movement observation</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b35d7473af7e1e73b0dd2982d48d5172\" tg-width=\"1715\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>Silicon Valley Bank turmoil subsides, and US authorities are considering helping<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>Boosted by news such as strengthening the balance sheet.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a></b>It rose nearly 12% to $13.82 on Monday. Due to the recent large amplitude of the stock, there are obvious differences between the long and short sides in the option market! There are bets that the exercise price expires on March 31 is only $1<b>Put Options,</b>There are also bets on a $60 exercise price expiring March 31<b>Call Option</b>。</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c800f98afd08a65e41e33a58b2a8a8b1\" tg-width=\"1644\" tg-height=\"274\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>Carnival Cruises</b>It fell more than 4% to $8.79 on Monday. Exercise price of $10 due March 31, 2023<b>Call Option</b>Of was particularly high in volume, with 20,396 trades.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/018470ff6f9341dfd4725a3715cefc9d\" tg-width=\"1644\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a></b>It rose 3% at $54.86 on Monday. Volume was particularly high for calls with an exercise price of $55 expiring on March 31, 2023, with 7,469 trades.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60d0851d46b18fc6864c4ec52f9f6474\" tg-width=\"1644\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Big option | Bank stocks counterattack, and there are obvious differences between long and short sides! Do more money bets, can Carnival Cruises live up to expectations?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBig option | Bank stocks counterattack, and there are obvious differences between long and short sides! Do more money bets, can Carnival Cruises live up to expectations?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-28 14:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract: On March 27th, Eastern Time, the total trading volume of the options market reached 31,161,419 contracts, of which call options accounted for 54%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The volume of call options on other star stocks is particularly high; Make long money bets,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival Cruises</a>Can it live up to expectations?</b><b>Market Overview</b></p><p>On March 27th, Eastern Time, U.S. stocks closed mixed on Monday, and bank stocks generally rose. First Citizens Bank Acquisition<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>All deposits and loans, and the U.S. authorities are considering helping<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>News such as strengthening the balance sheet boosted market sentiment. However, the overall market is still in a tepid state. This also reflects signs of a lack of direction in the market as a whole after the banking crisis. By the close, the Dow Jones was up 0.6%, the Nasdaq was down 0.47% and the S&P 500 was up 0.16%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6039ae90374132fafc810a91f224e3eb\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"152\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Tiger International</span></p><p>On Monday, the options market had a total volume of 31,161,419 contracts, of which calls accounted for 54%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0369686ff54cd71e80033330dc6cfd96\" tg-width=\"1786\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p>S&P ETF-SPY options traded 7.85 million contracts, of which put options accounted for 53%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10baa7de6fbb69852ae21f65aacb209a\" tg-width=\"1615\" tg-height=\"411\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>TOP10 Total Option Trading Volume</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cdaa6d1299aa61d03a2f31ea6615449\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"1409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Tiger International</span></p><p><b>Tesla</b>It rose 0.74% to $191,81 on Monday. 1.286 million options contracts were traded, and call options accounted for 61% of all options trades. Exercise price of $200 due March 31, 2023<b>Call Option</b>of was particularly high, with 106,046 trades.</p><p>In the news: Tesla's Berlin factory broke through the key production node three months ahead of schedule, with weekly output exceeding 5,000 vehicles.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c0c1cffb8631554864e2e19e61aee6\" tg-width=\"1647\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>Apple</b>It fell 1.23% at $158,28 on Monday. 722,700 options contracts were traded, and call options accounted for 51% of all options traded. Exercise price of $160 due March 31, 2023<b>Call Option</b>of was particularly high, with 67,816 trades.</p><p>News: Apple's low-key expansion of \"AI arsenal\" quietly acquired WaveOne, a video AI startup.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f23602c67a8979722704d6166a7f85d2\" tg-width=\"1647\" tg-height=\"267\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Up nearly 5% on Monday</b>, quoted $28,49. 503,500 options contracts were traded, and call options accounted for 51% of all options traded. Exercise price of $29 due March 31, 2023<b>Call Option</b>of was particularly high, with 22,607 trades. This means that in the options market, investors are betting on a short-term rally or near a peak in the stock.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b34d17be11e67e68cc456b370effe6c\" tg-width=\"1646\" tg-height=\"266\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>3. Movement observation</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b35d7473af7e1e73b0dd2982d48d5172\" tg-width=\"1715\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>Silicon Valley Bank turmoil subsides, and US authorities are considering helping<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>Boosted by news such as strengthening the balance sheet.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a></b>It rose nearly 12% to $13.82 on Monday. Due to the recent large amplitude of the stock, there are obvious differences between the long and short sides in the option market! There are bets that the exercise price expires on March 31 is only $1<b>Put Options,</b>There are also bets on a $60 exercise price expiring March 31<b>Call Option</b>。</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c800f98afd08a65e41e33a58b2a8a8b1\" tg-width=\"1644\" tg-height=\"274\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>Carnival Cruises</b>It fell more than 4% to $8.79 on Monday. Exercise price of $10 due March 31, 2023<b>Call Option</b>Of was particularly high in volume, with 20,396 trades.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/018470ff6f9341dfd4725a3715cefc9d\" tg-width=\"1644\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a></b>It rose 3% at $54.86 on Monday. Volume was particularly high for calls with an exercise price of $55 expiring on March 31, 2023, with 7,469 trades.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60d0851d46b18fc6864c4ec52f9f6474\" tg-width=\"1644\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data Source : Market Chameleon</span></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"AXP":"美国运通","SCHW":"嘉信理财","BK4589":"SVB概念","CCL":"嘉年华邮轮","BK4211":"区域性银行","AAPL":"苹果","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU1861220207.SGD":"Blackrock FinTech A2 SGD-H","LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4142":"酒店、度假村与豪华游轮","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SIVBQ":"硅谷银行","LU1861217088.USD":"贝莱德金融科技A2","BAC":"美国银行","BK4517":"邮轮概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178785059","content_text":"摘要:美东时间3月27日,期权市场总成交量达31,161,419.张合约,其中,看涨期权占比54%。特斯拉、苹果等明星股看涨期权的成交量特别高;做多资金押注,嘉年华邮轮能否不负众望?一、市场概览美东时间3月27日,美股周一收盘涨跌不一,银行股普涨。第一公民银行收购硅谷银行全部存贷款、以及美国当局正考虑帮助第一共和银行强化资产负债表等消息,提振了市场情绪。但大盘整体仍呈现不温不火的状态。这也反映出银行业危机过后,市场整体缺乏方向的迹象。截止收盘,道琼斯指数涨0.6%,纳斯达克指数跌0.47%,标普500指数涨0.16%。数据来源:老虎国际周一,期权市场总成交量达31,161,419.张合约,其中,看涨期权占比54%。数据来源:Market Chameleon标普指数ETF-SPY期权成交785万张合约,其中,看跌期权占比53%。数据来源:Market Chameleon二、期权成交总量TOP10数据来源:老虎国际特斯拉周一涨0.74%,报191,81美元。期权合约成交128.6万张,看涨期权占全部期权交易的61%。2023年3月31日到期行权价为200美元看涨期权的成交量特别高,成交量为106,046张。消息方面:特斯拉柏林工厂提前三个月突破关键产量节点,周产量突破5000辆。数据来源:Market Chameleon苹果周一跌1.23%,报158,28美元。期权合约成交72.27万张,看涨期权占全部期权交易的51%。2023年3月31日到期行权价为160美元看涨期权的成交量特别高,成交量为67,816张。消息方面:苹果低调扩充“AI军火库” 静悄悄收购视频AI创业公司WaveOne。数据来源:Market Chameleon美国银行周一涨近5%,报28,49美元。期权合约成交50.35万张,看涨期权占全部期权交易的51%。2023年3月31日到期行权价为29美元看涨期权的成交量特别高,成交量为22,607张。这意味着在期权市场中,投资者押注该股短线反弹或接近见顶。数据来源:Market Chameleon三、异动观察数据来源:Market Chameleon硅谷银行风波逐渐平息,以及美国当局正考虑帮助第一共和银行强化资产负债表等消息提振。第一共和银行周一涨近12%,报13.82美元。由于该股近期振幅较大,在期权市场中,多空双方出现明显分歧!有押注3月31日到期行权价仅为1美元看跌期权,也有押注3月31日到期行权价为60美元看涨期权。数据来源:Market Chameleon嘉年华邮轮周一跌超4%,报8.79美元。2023年3月31日到期行权价为10美元看涨期权的成交量特别高,成交量为20,396张。数据来源:Market Chameleon嘉信理财周一上涨3%,报54.86美元。2023年3月31日到期行权价为55美元看涨期权的成交量特别高,成交量为7,469张。数据来源:Market Chameleon","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"AXP":0.9,"CCL":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"SIVB":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SCHW":0.9,"SIVBQ":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"FRC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4904,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941495092,"gmtCreate":1680514289516,"gmtModify":1680514293011,"author":{"id":"4090765737044950","authorId":"4090765737044950","name":"猫咪国王","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9b05a625ccb22b4f0458e1a8ba46bd44","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090765737044950","idStr":"4090765737044950"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941495092","repostId":"1130992032","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949309322,"gmtCreate":1678336055467,"gmtModify":1678336059591,"author":{"id":"4090765737044950","authorId":"4090765737044950","name":"猫咪国王","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9b05a625ccb22b4f0458e1a8ba46bd44","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090765737044950","idStr":"4090765737044950"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949309322","repostId":"1173146453","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940415481,"gmtCreate":1678109536244,"gmtModify":1678109539908,"author":{"id":"4090765737044950","authorId":"4090765737044950","name":"猫咪国王","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9b05a625ccb22b4f0458e1a8ba46bd44","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090765737044950","idStr":"4090765737044950"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940415481","repostId":"2317178283","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940801021,"gmtCreate":1677778766464,"gmtModify":1677778770119,"author":{"id":"4090765737044950","authorId":"4090765737044950","name":"猫咪国王","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9b05a625ccb22b4f0458e1a8ba46bd44","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090765737044950","idStr":"4090765737044950"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940801021","repostId":"2316495692","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2316495692","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1677772257,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2316495692?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-02 23:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"War without smoke again! The Fed is dead?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2316495692","media":"金十数据","summary":"华尔街有一则投资箴言:“别和美联储作对。”或许这话只说对了一半?与其交易鲍威尔讲话,不如交易……","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>There's an investment motto on Wall Street: \"Don't go against the Fed.\" Perhaps that's only half true? Instead of trading Powell's speech, it is better to trade... March 17th will be the first anniversary of the current rate hike of the Federal Reserve. Since the Federal Reserve started the rate hike cycle, the smokeless war between the market and Powell has begun. As a result, the market has been repeatedly \"beaten\", so that many people have deeply realized one sentence:</p><p>\"Don't go against the Fed.\" Nowadays, investors seem to be more willing to pay attention to and trade the speeches of Powell and other Fed officials, but we think that investors should not be too \"superstitious about the Fed\", otherwise they may be more vulnerable to \"critical attack\". If you don't believe me, let's take a look.</p><p>rate hike 1st Anniversary: How Are Markets and the Economy Performing?</p><p>The entire market had a thrilling year after the Federal Reserve turned on its rate hike and raised interest rates by 425 basis points.</p><p>Investors sell everything, global<b>Stock market</b>Trillions of dollars evaporated from market capitalization.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28e0b47d9cb293b86065b106d653cab\" tg-width=\"1032\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Non-U.S. currencies</b>General decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd82d4ac907d7fc330c68e8d8acfc610\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Commodities</b>Performance is hard to describe,<b>Gold</b>Failed to act as a tool to fight inflation, known as the \"leader of the global economy\"<b>Copper price</b>Flash a recession signal,<b>Crude oil and natural gas</b>Prices rose to multi-year highs, adding to inflation the central bank has been trying to tame.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb402226f274ae98e8000e791f7dd969\" tg-width=\"1032\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Cryptocurrency</b>Experienced a \"cliff-like\" decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a42e248f8ed2bf9b4daff7da0a726a1\" tg-width=\"1044\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Even what has always been considered the safest asset<b>U.S. debt</b>, also experienced its most terrible decline in 50 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/584250eb939f26817eb0a753ba12e1d8\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The good news is that after last year's Fed rate hike at its most aggressive pace since the 1980s, the current rate hike has gradually dropped back to 25 basis points from the previous 75 basis points.</p><p>But the bad news is that as of February this year, the Fed has accumulated 450 basis points of rate hike, but<b>Has not been effective in curbing inflation</b>。 The \"shelling\" of a series of strong data in February may mean that the Fed's efforts to fight inflation have failed.</p><p>Although<b>CPI annual rate</b>It has dropped to 5.5%, well below last year's peak of 9%, but it is still well above the Fed's target and even shows stickiness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9465bba9a8a24e8ebd69a58fa120d1f0\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Job market</b>It also showed surprising resilience, so much so that even Robert Reich, the former US secretary of labor, said disappointedly: \"<b>The Federal Reserve is Dead</b>。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e46ae8f7fa66d98726d85a7df19482e\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Of course, the Fed can't be all to blame for this either, as part of the reason for inflation is geopolitical conflicts, the pandemic, and problems with the supply of commodities and components.</p><p>But even if we only look at the situation in the United States,<b>The Fed's rate hike won't actually help slow price increases either, and may even have the opposite effect</b>。</p><p>It's very simple,<u>If you were the boss of a large company, would you take the initiative to cut prices on goods and put up with reduced profits before the Fed rate hike caused a recession? Obviously, any normal boss would not do this. On the contrary, they would try to keep the price high for as long as possible.</u></p><p>Only when high interest rates start to hurt consumers so much that they can't afford high-priced goods will businesses be forced to cut prices. In other words, relying on the Federal Reserve's rate hike alone to curb inflation is probably not quite feasible.</p><p>Wars without smoke are played out frequently</p><p>Of course, whether rate hike can curb inflation or not,<b>The market \"bleeding\" won't stop as long as the Fed is in rate hike</b>。</p><p>There's a famous saying in the investment community: \"Don't go against the Fed.\"</p><p>But it turns out that for most of the past year, traders and investors have ignored this phrase, losing frequently in confrontations with the Fed.</p><p>This phenomenon was evident when the Federal Reserve just started its rate hike,<b>It was when inflation continued to soar and the Fed's pivot to its most hawkish policy stance in decades surprised investors, triggering a market crash</b>Investor losses also mainly occurred in the first few months of the Fed's rate hike cycle, specifically before mid-May last year.</p><p>Even as investors began to accept expectations by mid-May last year that the Fed would bring its rate hike to around 5%,<b>Investors still don't believe the Fed will be as tough as they say it will be.</b></p><p>And then they started betting that the Fed would eventually be forced to abandon its pledge to \"keep interest rates high for the long term\" and would start cutting rates this year and trade accordingly. So in mid-May last year, the S&P 500 began to rebound.</p><p>Does the story sound familiar?</p><p>That's right,<b>At the beginning of the year, the market staged this scenario again</b>: Although Powell and other Fed officials have repeatedly emphasized the higher terminal interest rate and the need to keep interest rates high, investors still believe that the Fed is bluffing, and they can't wait to bet that the Fed will announce interest rate cuts in the second half of this year.</p><p>As a result, we all know that the data in February directly \"beat the heads\" of these overly optimistic investors.</p><p>Serious communication problems?</p><p>Some analysts believe that the reason why the market keeps opposing the Fed is,<b>It could be because the Fed has credibility or communication problems, or both</b>。</p><p>In fact,<b>In most cases, investors don't listen to what Powell said, but only listen to what they want to hear, so Powell often hawks, and the market still rises; Or the situation where Powell releases pigeons and the market falls.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7074d9c4bc3a939b7c95dc4e55caaef7\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>For example, on November 30th last year, February 1st and February 7th this year, Powell made three speeches to release pigeons. Logically speaking, this should be said to be a big positive for the stock market. However, after his dovish speech, the market fell instead.</p><p>Take the Feb. 7 speech, when Powell claimed:</p><p>\"We think we will need further rate hike. The labor market is exceptionally strong. If the employment situation remains hot, it is likely that we will have to do more... Last Friday's non-farm payrolls report was stronger than expected, indicating that (inflation-fighting) this is going to be a long process.\" While he also said:</p><p>\"The anti-inflation process has begun, and the Federal Reserve expects that the current rate hike will be appropriate, but it still has not reached a sufficiently restrictive level.\" Regarding this speech, Stephen Innes, an analyst at SPI Asset Management, analyzed that,<b>Powell hasn't gone to great lengths to weigh down markets with hawkish rhetoric</b>。 Powell's remarks further confirmed that the Fed is open to broader brokerage data and policy outcomes as tightening moves into a late-cycle adjustment phase. That is, they will cut rates if and only if the data gives them absolute confidence that the fight against inflation has won and that a more positive growth outlook does not pose the risk of inflation accelerating again.</p><p>However, Innes says:</p><p>\"One thing to know, no matter how optimistic the market is, is that in an environment where the dollar is strong, interest rates are rising, and the financial environment is tightening, any soft landing cannot be without pain.\" It follows that Powell's pigeon-in-the-eagle speech failed to boost market sentiment,<b>What markets heard was that the Fed would keep tightening and that a soft landing would be hard to avoid, so they started selling stocks</b>。</p><p>Powell Ignorance?!</p><p>So does that mean that paying attention to and trading the speeches of Powell and other Fed officials will ensure nothing is foolproof?</p><p>I'm afraid it's not that simple.</p><p>According to Brent Donnelly, president of analytics firm Spectra Markets:</p><p>\"Powell doesn't know more about the economic outlook than you do, so I've been stressing that the market should trade in economic data, not Powell's speech.\" Donnelly's remark is not unreasonable.</p><p>In the past two years, Powell has been \"slapped in the face\" by the market many times, the most typical example of which is his \"<b>Inflation temporary theory</b>”。</p><p>Back in February 2021, Powell said that a one-off price increase wouldn't necessarily drive up inflation, and the result?</p><p>In May 2021, CPI soared to 5% annually from 1.7% in February, when Powell still insisted: \"<b>High inflation is only temporary</b>。”</p><p>In August of that year, CPI rose to 5.3% annually, and Powell vowed: \"<b>Inflationary pressures will ease in the first half of next year</b>。”</p><p>In November of that year, the annual CPI rate rose to 6.8%, and Powell continued to talk hard: \"<b>Inflation is well above target, but we are very well positioned for interest rates, inflation and a strong economy</b>。”</p><p>By February 2022, the annual CPI rate was on a rocket, rising to 7.9%, and Powell finally let go: \"<b>Inflation is expected to move higher this year, but lower than last year's</b>。”</p><p>In the following year, the Federal Reserve finally started a rate hike to curb inflation, but it was still criticized by the market because it started the rate hike cycle too late and inflation became increasingly stubborn.</p><p>This example is a good illustration that Fed officials, led by Powell, know no more than the rest of the market.</p><p>At the beginning of February this year, after the Federal Reserve reduced the rate hike from the last 50 basis points to 25 basis points, the non-agricultural and CPI data greatly exceeded expectations, once again hitting Powell's face, who had previously indicated that the anti-inflation process had started.</p><p>In addition, Nick Timiraos, who is known as the \"Fed's megaphone\", said before the Fed's rate hike in February,<b>Fed officials, like ordinary investors, are unsure about the lag in rate hike.</b></p><p>Some Fed officials say interest rate movements affect the economy more quickly because the Fed communicates its policy intentions more clearly than in the past. The Fed 30 years ago didn't communicate to the public in advance whether it would make any interest rate adjustments at meetings. Fed Governor Waller believes:</p><p>\"The markets at the time had to take the time to figure out that the Fed was taking action. In this case, it took a while for policy to affect the economy; by contrast, today's Fed provided guidance for its future actions, which shortened the lag. I think a lot of the effects of monetary policy will be more visible in the next quarter.\" But it was also argued that this ignored important changes that extended the lag. Even if Fed officials shortened the time between changing interest rates and affecting financial conditions, they did not shorten the time for financial markets to affect economic activity.</p><p>In short, at present, no one, including the Federal Reserve, can say clearly how long the impact of rate hike on the economy will lag, which is actually an important manifestation of \"Powell's (or the Federal Reserve's) ignorance\".</p><p>So, for investors,<b>\"Don't go against the Fed\" may be an investment motto, but \"Don't be too superstitious about the Fed\" is probably just as important.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>War without smoke again! The Fed is dead?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWar without smoke again! The Fed is dead?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-02 23:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>There's an investment motto on Wall Street: \"Don't go against the Fed.\" Perhaps that's only half true? Instead of trading Powell's speech, it is better to trade... March 17th will be the first anniversary of the current rate hike of the Federal Reserve. Since the Federal Reserve started the rate hike cycle, the smokeless war between the market and Powell has begun. As a result, the market has been repeatedly \"beaten\", so that many people have deeply realized one sentence:</p><p>\"Don't go against the Fed.\" Nowadays, investors seem to be more willing to pay attention to and trade the speeches of Powell and other Fed officials, but we think that investors should not be too \"superstitious about the Fed\", otherwise they may be more vulnerable to \"critical attack\". If you don't believe me, let's take a look.</p><p>rate hike 1st Anniversary: How Are Markets and the Economy Performing?</p><p>The entire market had a thrilling year after the Federal Reserve turned on its rate hike and raised interest rates by 425 basis points.</p><p>Investors sell everything, global<b>Stock market</b>Trillions of dollars evaporated from market capitalization.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28e0b47d9cb293b86065b106d653cab\" tg-width=\"1032\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Non-U.S. currencies</b>General decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd82d4ac907d7fc330c68e8d8acfc610\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Commodities</b>Performance is hard to describe,<b>Gold</b>Failed to act as a tool to fight inflation, known as the \"leader of the global economy\"<b>Copper price</b>Flash a recession signal,<b>Crude oil and natural gas</b>Prices rose to multi-year highs, adding to inflation the central bank has been trying to tame.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb402226f274ae98e8000e791f7dd969\" tg-width=\"1032\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Cryptocurrency</b>Experienced a \"cliff-like\" decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a42e248f8ed2bf9b4daff7da0a726a1\" tg-width=\"1044\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Even what has always been considered the safest asset<b>U.S. debt</b>, also experienced its most terrible decline in 50 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/584250eb939f26817eb0a753ba12e1d8\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The good news is that after last year's Fed rate hike at its most aggressive pace since the 1980s, the current rate hike has gradually dropped back to 25 basis points from the previous 75 basis points.</p><p>But the bad news is that as of February this year, the Fed has accumulated 450 basis points of rate hike, but<b>Has not been effective in curbing inflation</b>。 The \"shelling\" of a series of strong data in February may mean that the Fed's efforts to fight inflation have failed.</p><p>Although<b>CPI annual rate</b>It has dropped to 5.5%, well below last year's peak of 9%, but it is still well above the Fed's target and even shows stickiness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9465bba9a8a24e8ebd69a58fa120d1f0\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Job market</b>It also showed surprising resilience, so much so that even Robert Reich, the former US secretary of labor, said disappointedly: \"<b>The Federal Reserve is Dead</b>。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e46ae8f7fa66d98726d85a7df19482e\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Of course, the Fed can't be all to blame for this either, as part of the reason for inflation is geopolitical conflicts, the pandemic, and problems with the supply of commodities and components.</p><p>But even if we only look at the situation in the United States,<b>The Fed's rate hike won't actually help slow price increases either, and may even have the opposite effect</b>。</p><p>It's very simple,<u>If you were the boss of a large company, would you take the initiative to cut prices on goods and put up with reduced profits before the Fed rate hike caused a recession? Obviously, any normal boss would not do this. On the contrary, they would try to keep the price high for as long as possible.</u></p><p>Only when high interest rates start to hurt consumers so much that they can't afford high-priced goods will businesses be forced to cut prices. In other words, relying on the Federal Reserve's rate hike alone to curb inflation is probably not quite feasible.</p><p>Wars without smoke are played out frequently</p><p>Of course, whether rate hike can curb inflation or not,<b>The market \"bleeding\" won't stop as long as the Fed is in rate hike</b>。</p><p>There's a famous saying in the investment community: \"Don't go against the Fed.\"</p><p>But it turns out that for most of the past year, traders and investors have ignored this phrase, losing frequently in confrontations with the Fed.</p><p>This phenomenon was evident when the Federal Reserve just started its rate hike,<b>It was when inflation continued to soar and the Fed's pivot to its most hawkish policy stance in decades surprised investors, triggering a market crash</b>Investor losses also mainly occurred in the first few months of the Fed's rate hike cycle, specifically before mid-May last year.</p><p>Even as investors began to accept expectations by mid-May last year that the Fed would bring its rate hike to around 5%,<b>Investors still don't believe the Fed will be as tough as they say it will be.</b></p><p>And then they started betting that the Fed would eventually be forced to abandon its pledge to \"keep interest rates high for the long term\" and would start cutting rates this year and trade accordingly. So in mid-May last year, the S&P 500 began to rebound.</p><p>Does the story sound familiar?</p><p>That's right,<b>At the beginning of the year, the market staged this scenario again</b>: Although Powell and other Fed officials have repeatedly emphasized the higher terminal interest rate and the need to keep interest rates high, investors still believe that the Fed is bluffing, and they can't wait to bet that the Fed will announce interest rate cuts in the second half of this year.</p><p>As a result, we all know that the data in February directly \"beat the heads\" of these overly optimistic investors.</p><p>Serious communication problems?</p><p>Some analysts believe that the reason why the market keeps opposing the Fed is,<b>It could be because the Fed has credibility or communication problems, or both</b>。</p><p>In fact,<b>In most cases, investors don't listen to what Powell said, but only listen to what they want to hear, so Powell often hawks, and the market still rises; Or the situation where Powell releases pigeons and the market falls.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7074d9c4bc3a939b7c95dc4e55caaef7\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>For example, on November 30th last year, February 1st and February 7th this year, Powell made three speeches to release pigeons. Logically speaking, this should be said to be a big positive for the stock market. However, after his dovish speech, the market fell instead.</p><p>Take the Feb. 7 speech, when Powell claimed:</p><p>\"We think we will need further rate hike. The labor market is exceptionally strong. If the employment situation remains hot, it is likely that we will have to do more... Last Friday's non-farm payrolls report was stronger than expected, indicating that (inflation-fighting) this is going to be a long process.\" While he also said:</p><p>\"The anti-inflation process has begun, and the Federal Reserve expects that the current rate hike will be appropriate, but it still has not reached a sufficiently restrictive level.\" Regarding this speech, Stephen Innes, an analyst at SPI Asset Management, analyzed that,<b>Powell hasn't gone to great lengths to weigh down markets with hawkish rhetoric</b>。 Powell's remarks further confirmed that the Fed is open to broader brokerage data and policy outcomes as tightening moves into a late-cycle adjustment phase. That is, they will cut rates if and only if the data gives them absolute confidence that the fight against inflation has won and that a more positive growth outlook does not pose the risk of inflation accelerating again.</p><p>However, Innes says:</p><p>\"One thing to know, no matter how optimistic the market is, is that in an environment where the dollar is strong, interest rates are rising, and the financial environment is tightening, any soft landing cannot be without pain.\" It follows that Powell's pigeon-in-the-eagle speech failed to boost market sentiment,<b>What markets heard was that the Fed would keep tightening and that a soft landing would be hard to avoid, so they started selling stocks</b>。</p><p>Powell Ignorance?!</p><p>So does that mean that paying attention to and trading the speeches of Powell and other Fed officials will ensure nothing is foolproof?</p><p>I'm afraid it's not that simple.</p><p>According to Brent Donnelly, president of analytics firm Spectra Markets:</p><p>\"Powell doesn't know more about the economic outlook than you do, so I've been stressing that the market should trade in economic data, not Powell's speech.\" Donnelly's remark is not unreasonable.</p><p>In the past two years, Powell has been \"slapped in the face\" by the market many times, the most typical example of which is his \"<b>Inflation temporary theory</b>”。</p><p>Back in February 2021, Powell said that a one-off price increase wouldn't necessarily drive up inflation, and the result?</p><p>In May 2021, CPI soared to 5% annually from 1.7% in February, when Powell still insisted: \"<b>High inflation is only temporary</b>。”</p><p>In August of that year, CPI rose to 5.3% annually, and Powell vowed: \"<b>Inflationary pressures will ease in the first half of next year</b>。”</p><p>In November of that year, the annual CPI rate rose to 6.8%, and Powell continued to talk hard: \"<b>Inflation is well above target, but we are very well positioned for interest rates, inflation and a strong economy</b>。”</p><p>By February 2022, the annual CPI rate was on a rocket, rising to 7.9%, and Powell finally let go: \"<b>Inflation is expected to move higher this year, but lower than last year's</b>。”</p><p>In the following year, the Federal Reserve finally started a rate hike to curb inflation, but it was still criticized by the market because it started the rate hike cycle too late and inflation became increasingly stubborn.</p><p>This example is a good illustration that Fed officials, led by Powell, know no more than the rest of the market.</p><p>At the beginning of February this year, after the Federal Reserve reduced the rate hike from the last 50 basis points to 25 basis points, the non-agricultural and CPI data greatly exceeded expectations, once again hitting Powell's face, who had previously indicated that the anti-inflation process had started.</p><p>In addition, Nick Timiraos, who is known as the \"Fed's megaphone\", said before the Fed's rate hike in February,<b>Fed officials, like ordinary investors, are unsure about the lag in rate hike.</b></p><p>Some Fed officials say interest rate movements affect the economy more quickly because the Fed communicates its policy intentions more clearly than in the past. The Fed 30 years ago didn't communicate to the public in advance whether it would make any interest rate adjustments at meetings. Fed Governor Waller believes:</p><p>\"The markets at the time had to take the time to figure out that the Fed was taking action. In this case, it took a while for policy to affect the economy; by contrast, today's Fed provided guidance for its future actions, which shortened the lag. I think a lot of the effects of monetary policy will be more visible in the next quarter.\" But it was also argued that this ignored important changes that extended the lag. Even if Fed officials shortened the time between changing interest rates and affecting financial conditions, they did not shorten the time for financial markets to affect economic activity.</p><p>In short, at present, no one, including the Federal Reserve, can say clearly how long the impact of rate hike on the economy will lag, which is actually an important manifestation of \"Powell's (or the Federal Reserve's) ignorance\".</p><p>So, for investors,<b>\"Don't go against the Fed\" may be an investment motto, but \"Don't be too superstitious about the Fed\" is probably just as important.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=107678&type=news&data_type=0\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6500520b6c72e4650ea6c53cb7c59999","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=107678&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2316495692","content_text":"华尔街有一则投资箴言:“别和美联储作对。”或许这话只说对了一半?与其交易鲍威尔讲话,不如交易……3月17日将是美联储本轮加息一周年的日子,自美联储开启加息周期以来,市场跟鲍威尔之间没有硝烟的战争就开始了,结果市场被反复“吊打”,以至于很多人都深刻认识到一句话:“别跟美联储作对。”如今,投资者似乎更愿意关注并交易鲍威尔及其他美联储官员的讲话,但是我们认为,投资者也不宜过于“迷信美联储”,否则恐怕更容易遭到“暴击”,不信就一起来看看吧。加息一周年:市场和经济表现如何?在美联储开启加息并将利率提高425个基点后,整个市场经历了惊心动魄的一年。投资者抛售一切,全球股市市值蒸发数万亿美元。非美货币普遍下跌。大宗商品表现一言难尽,黄金未能充当抗通胀的工具,有“全球经济领头羊”之称的铜价闪现出衰退信号,原油和天然气价格则涨至多年新高,加剧了央行一直想抑制的通胀。加密货币经历了“断崖式”下跌。就连向来被视为最安全资产的美债,也经历了50年来最可怕的下跌。好消息是,在去年美联储以1980年代以来最激进的速度加息之后,目前加息幅度已经从此前的75个基点逐步回落到25个基点。但坏消息是,截至今年2月,美联储累计已经加息450个基点,但是对于抑制通胀问题并没有奏效。2月份一系列强劲数据的“炮轰”,可能意味着美联储抗通胀的努力失败了。尽管CPI年率已经降至5.5%,远低于去年9%的峰值,但是仍远高于美联储的目标,甚至还显现出粘性。就业市场也显示出惊人的弹性,以至于连美国前劳工部部长Robert Reich都失望地表示:“美联储已死。”当然,这也不能全怪美联储,因为造成通胀的部分原因是地缘冲突、疫情以及大宗商品和零部件的供应问题。不过,就算只看美国国内的情况,美联储加息其实也无助于减缓物价上涨,甚至可能会产生相反的结果。很简单,假如你是一家大公司的老板,你会在美联储加息导致经济衰退之前主动给商品降价,并忍受利润减少吗?很显然,任何一个正常的老板,都不会这么做,相反,他们会尽可能地将价格长时间维持在高位。只有当高利率开始损害到消费者的利益,以至于他们买不起高价商品时,企业才会被迫降价。换句话说,仅靠美联储加息来抑制通胀,恐怕不太行得通。没有硝烟的战争频频上演当然了,不管加息能否抑制通胀,只要美联储还在加息,市场“流血”就不会停止。投资界有一句名言:“别和美联储作对。”但是事实证明,在过去1年的大部分时间里,交易员和投资者都忽略了这句话,以至于在跟美联储的对抗中频频落败。这一现象在美联储刚刚开启加息时表现得十分明显,当时通胀持续飙升,而美联储转向几十年来最为鹰派的政策立场令投资者感到意外,从而引发市场崩盘,投资者的损失也主要出现在美联储加息周期最初的几个月里,具体来说是去年5月中旬以前。即使到去年5月中旬,投资者开始接受美联储将加息到5%左右的预期,但是投资者仍不相信美联储会像他们所说的那样强硬。当时他们就开始押注,美联储最终将被迫放弃其“将利率长期维持在高位”的承诺,并将于今年开始降息,并据此进行交易。因此,去年5月中旬,标普500指数开始出现反弹。这个故事听起来是不是很熟悉?没错,今年年初,市场再次上演这一场景:尽管鲍威尔和其他美联储官员都在反复强调更高的终端利率及其将利率维持在高位的必要性,但是投资者仍认为美联储是在虚张声势,他们开始迫不及待地押注美联储将于今年下半年宣布降息。结果我们都清楚,2月份的数据直接将这些过分乐观的投资者“打爆头”。严重的沟通问题?有分析师认为,市场之所以不停地反对美联储,可能是因为美联储存在信誉或者沟通问题,或者二者皆有。事实上,在大多数情况下,投资者都不听鲍威尔说了什么,而是只听他们自己想听的,所以才会经常出现鲍威尔放鹰,市场还是上涨了;或者鲍威尔放鸽,市场却下跌的情况。例如在去年11月30日、今年2月1日和2月7日,鲍威尔三次讲话放鸽,按道理来说,这对股市来说应该说是个大利好,然而在其发表鸽派讲话之后,市场反而下跌了。以2月7日的讲话为例,当时鲍威尔声称:“我们认为我们将需要进一步加息。劳动力市场异常强劲。如果就业形势仍然很热,很可能我们必须做更多的事情......上周五的非农就业报告强于预期,表明(抗通胀)这将是一个漫长的过程。”同时他还表示:“反通胀的进程已经开始,美联储预计目前的加息将是适当的,但仍未达到足够限制性的水平。”对于这一讲话,SPI资管公司分析师Stephen Innes分析称,鲍威尔并没有不遗余力地用鹰派言论来打压市场。鲍威尔的讲话更证实了一点,即随着紧缩政策进入周期后期的调整阶段,美联储对更广泛的经纪数据和政策结果持开放态度。也就是说,当且仅当数据让他们有绝对信心,相信抗击通胀的努力已经取得了胜利,更积极的增长前景不会带来通胀再次加速的风险时,他们才会降息。不过,Innes表示:“无论市场如何乐观,要知道的一点是,在美元走强、利率上升,金融环境收紧的环境中,任何软着陆都不可能没有痛苦。”由此可见,鲍威尔鹰中有鸽的讲话并未能提振市场情绪,市场听到的是美联储将持续收紧,经济软着陆将难以避免,因此开始抛售股票。鲍威尔无知?!那么,这是否意味着,关注并交易鲍威尔及其他美联储官员的讲话,就能确保万无一失呢?事情恐怕也没有这么简单。分析公司Spectra Markets的总裁布伦特·唐纳利(Brent Donnelly)认为:“对于经济前景,鲍威尔知道的并不比你多,因此我一直在强调,市场应该交易的是经济数据,而非鲍威尔讲话。”唐纳利此话不无道理。过去2年,鲍威尔多次被市场“打脸”,其中最典型的例子就是他的“通胀暂时论”。早在2021年2月,鲍威尔就表示,一次性的物价上涨不一定会推升通胀,结果呢?2021年5月,CPI年率就从2月份的1.7%飙升至5%,彼时鲍威尔仍坚持称:“高通胀只是暂时的。”当年8月,CPI年率升至5.3%,鲍威尔又信誓旦旦表示:“通胀压力明年上半年就会缓解。”当年11月,CPI年率涨至6.8%,鲍威尔继续嘴硬:“通胀远高于目标,但是我们在利率、通胀和强劲经济方面处于非常有利的地位。”到2022年2月,CPI年率坐上火箭,涨至7.9%,鲍威尔终于松口:“预计今年通胀将走高,但低于去年的通胀。”在此后的一年里,美联储终于开始加息以抑制通胀,但是仍遭到市场的抨击,因为太晚开启加息周期,通胀越来越顽固。这个例子就很好地说明,以鲍威尔为首的美联储官员,知道的并不比市场其他人多。今年2月初,美联储将加息幅度从上一次的50个基点降至25个基点后,非农、CPI数据又大超预期,再次打了此前表明反通胀进程已经开启的鲍威尔的脸。另外,有着“美联储传声筒”之称的Nick Timiraos在美联储2月份加息之前曾表示,美联储官员跟普通投资者一样,对于加息的滞后性并不确定。一些美联储官员称,利率变动对经济的影响更快,因为美联储比过去更明确地传达了自己的政策意图。30年前的美联储并不会提前向公众传达其是否将在会议上做出任何利率调整。美联储理事沃勒认为:“当时的市场必须花时间弄清楚美联储正在采取行动。在这种情况下,政策需要一段时间才能影响经济;相比之下,今天的美联储为其未来的行动提供了指导,这缩短了滞后时间。我认为,下个季度货币政策的很多影响将进一步显现。”但也有人认为,这忽略了延长滞后的重要变化。即使美联储官员缩短了改变利率和影响金融状况之间的时间,他们也没有缩短金融市场影响经济活动的时间。总之,目前包括美联储在内,没人能说清楚加息对经济的影响会滞后多久,这其实也是“鲍威尔(或美联储)无知”的一个重要体现。因此,对于投资者来说,“别跟美联储作对”或许是一则投资箴言,但是“别太迷信美联储”恐怕也同样重要。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".DJI":1,"SSO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SH":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SPY":1,"DJX":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,".IXIC":1,"MNQmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968386808,"gmtCreate":1669129527305,"gmtModify":1676538156283,"author":{"id":"4090765737044950","authorId":"4090765737044950","name":"猫咪国王","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9b05a625ccb22b4f0458e1a8ba46bd44","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090765737044950","idStr":"4090765737044950"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968386808","repostId":"667440241","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":667440241,"gmtCreate":1669103644185,"gmtModify":1676538152610,"author":{"id":"4100392628064900","authorId":"4100392628064900","name":"财见","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfecb1713c6fef32fde051255c4518f3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100392628064900","idStr":"4100392628064900"},"themes":[],"title":"企鵝蘭登書屋收購西蒙與舒斯特的交易將告吹","htmlText":"圖書出版巨頭西蒙與舒斯特公司(Simon 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23:48","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"UBS: First to give Ctrip (TCOM.O) a neutral rating.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2268614745","media":"媒体滚动","summary":"瑞银:首予携程网(TCOM.O)中性评级。","content":"<p><html><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>: First grant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip</a>(TCOM.O) Neutral rating.</body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>UBS: First to give Ctrip (TCOM.O) a neutral rating.</title>\n<style 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