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Tonyseng

Tonyseng

长期投资者的小白菜…

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2022-01-31

good game👍

@TigerEvents:Join Tiger Ski Championship, Win a Bonus of Up to USD 2022

2021-06-19

??

Over 2 trillion US stock options decisive battle tonight's "Four Witch Day"

2021-05-15

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$????

2021-05-14

omg??‍♂️

Ali dropped nearly 5% intraday, dropping shares to lowest since July last year

2021-05-12

666

Tiger Brokers was included in the MSCI China All-Stock Index!

2021-05-09

$Realty Income Corp(O)$???

2021-05-06

????

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2021-05-02

$Realty Income Corp(O)$??

2021-04-29

$Realty Income Corp(O)$????

2021-04-28

$Realty Income Corp(O)$????

2021-04-24

??‍♂️??‍♂️

Will Biden raise taxes on the wealthy end the US stock bull market?

2021-04-23

??

China starts demographic transition, who will be the "ten-fold stock" at this stage

2021-04-13

????

Investment bank says Tesla will conquer trillion-dollar market, sharply hikes price target

2021-04-11

???

Among the three favorite stocks of "Sister Wood", who is most worthy of investors to "Call"?

2021-04-04

$STAG Industrial(STAG)$??‍♂️??‍♂️??‍♂️

2021-04-02

$Realty Income Corp(O)$????

2021-04-01

??

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-03-30

???

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-03-15

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$???

2021-03-10

??????

Tesla Sweeps Slump and Soars 20%, Leading EV Sector Higher across the Board

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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To celebrate the special year, we want to invite you to join the ski game presented by Tiger Brokers specially, and it’s very easy and interesting game for users to play. Join the game and win a bonus of up to USD 2022 and limited-edition Tiger Toys Spring Festival and Winter Olympic are both on the way, open your Tiger Trade App and play the ski game with us, win golden medals as many as you can! You could have chance to try Lucky Draw when you win medals.The more medal you win, the bigger bonus you may win! Big Rewards are as follow: <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/happy-new-year/#/\" target=\"_blank\">Click to Join the Game</a>","listText":"2022 is the Year of Tiger in Chinese lunar calendar, it’s also a special year for Tiger Brokers. To celebrate the special year, we want to invite you to join the ski game presented by Tiger Brokers specially, and it’s very easy and interesting game for users to play. Join the game and win a bonus of up to USD 2022 and limited-edition Tiger Toys Spring Festival and Winter Olympic are both on the way, open your Tiger Trade App and play the ski game with us, win golden medals as many as you can! You could have chance to try Lucky Draw when you win medals.The more medal you win, the bigger bonus you may win! Big Rewards are as follow: <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/happy-new-year/#/\" target=\"_blank\">Click to Join the Game</a>","text":"2022 is the Year of Tiger in Chinese lunar calendar, it’s also a special year for Tiger Brokers. To celebrate the special year, we want to invite you to join the ski game presented by Tiger Brokers specially, and it’s very easy and interesting game for users to play. Join the game and win a bonus of up to USD 2022 and limited-edition Tiger Toys Spring Festival and Winter Olympic are both on the way, open your Tiger Trade App and play the ski game with us, win golden medals as many as you can! You could have chance to try Lucky Draw when you win medals.The more medal you win, the bigger bonus you may win! Big Rewards are as follow: Click to Join the Game","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b44fa056439fb4010fa55e163d27c3","width":"750","height":"1726"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004448317","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162804861,"gmtCreate":1624053749453,"gmtModify":1703827579221,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162804861","repostId":"2144572198","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144572198","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1623993218,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144572198?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 13:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Over 2 trillion US stock options decisive battle tonight's \"Four Witch Day\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144572198","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美股今年第二个“四巫日”今晚到来，届时将有超2万亿美元美股期权到期，加上美联储暗示流动性或收紧，此次“四巫日”或许是美股的一个转折点。\n四巫日(Quadruplewitchingday)是指美国市场于","content":"<p>The second \"Four Witches Day\" of U.S. stocks this year will arrive tonight, when more than $2 trillion of U.S. stock options will expire. In addition, the Federal Reserve suggests liquidity or tightening. This \"Four Witches Day\" may be a turning point for U.S. stocks.</p><p>Quadruplewitchingday refers to the maturity and settlement date of derivative financial products in the U.S. market on the third Friday of the quarter (March, June, September and December). Stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures are all due and delivered on the same day. The simultaneous delivery of these four asset classes will bring violent market volatility, with bulls and shorts playing with each other.</p><p><b>Options expiring this Friday include: $240 billion worth of<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVV\">S&P 500 ETF</a>Options, $200 billion in mini S&P 500 futures and $1.8 trillion in S&P 500 options, totaling over $2 trillion.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e084b716c88bd8163b59b6f21fa71734\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As U.S. stocks have been hitting record highs recently, most June open interest prices are expected to be below current spot prices. As shown in the chart below, options with strike prices are most densely distributed around 3900 and 4150. This means that after this Friday, there could be some support around these points until refilled with new gamma.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac0e8bce636a6f73c6b57a18d39a180a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The trading volume of the Four Witches calendar has been very huge,<b>However, what is more noteworthy this time is that the volatility of U.S. stocks was very low before, and the hint of the Fed's liquidity turnaround has already come out.</b></p><p>In the past 13 trading days, the volatility of the S&P 500 index is only 5.1%, which is the lowest volatility since 2019. However, compared with the lifeless market, the volatility of individual stocks is extremely great, especially retail stocks, such as GME and AMC.</p><p>Charlie McElligott of Nomura notes,<b>Very low market volatility coexisting with a large number of bullish gamma options expiring is very dangerous,</b>Because once positions are closed collectively, real volatility may pick up instantaneously. Meanwhile, the rising VIX index futures relative to the S&P 500 Beta indicates that if there is a sell-off in the market, the short gamma position will recover and the market will become more volatile.</p><p>In addition, the Fed's interest rate meeting on Thursday did not indicate immediate tightening of liquidity, but it also admitted that high inflation will not disappear in the short term, which is equivalent to walking a tightrope between pigeons and hawks. But on Friday, it took real action to tighten liquidity.</p><p>On Friday,<b>Sixty-eight counterparties put $756 billion in funds to the Federal Reserve through overnight reverse repurchase instruments, setting a record high of $584 billion.</b>And the day before. The use of the Fed's overnight reverse repo rate is only $520.9 billion. This represents a $235.1 billion increase in the use of the tool in just one day, a whopping 45% increase.</p><p>The effect of the Fed's reverse repurchase is just the opposite of that of China. Simply put, the role of the central bank's reverse repurchase is to release liquidity, while the Fed's reverse repurchase is to recover liquidity. Single-day usage of the Fed's reverse repo vehicle has exceeded $500 billion for seven consecutive trading sessions since it crossed the $500 billion mark for the first time in usage history last Wednesday.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Over 2 trillion US stock options decisive battle tonight's \"Four Witch Day\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOver 2 trillion US stock options decisive battle tonight's \"Four Witch Day\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 13:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The second \"Four Witches Day\" of U.S. stocks this year will arrive tonight, when more than $2 trillion of U.S. stock options will expire. In addition, the Federal Reserve suggests liquidity or tightening. This \"Four Witches Day\" may be a turning point for U.S. stocks.</p><p>Quadruplewitchingday refers to the maturity and settlement date of derivative financial products in the U.S. market on the third Friday of the quarter (March, June, September and December). Stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures are all due and delivered on the same day. The simultaneous delivery of these four asset classes will bring violent market volatility, with bulls and shorts playing with each other.</p><p><b>Options expiring this Friday include: $240 billion worth of<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVV\">S&P 500 ETF</a>Options, $200 billion in mini S&P 500 futures and $1.8 trillion in S&P 500 options, totaling over $2 trillion.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e084b716c88bd8163b59b6f21fa71734\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As U.S. stocks have been hitting record highs recently, most June open interest prices are expected to be below current spot prices. As shown in the chart below, options with strike prices are most densely distributed around 3900 and 4150. This means that after this Friday, there could be some support around these points until refilled with new gamma.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac0e8bce636a6f73c6b57a18d39a180a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The trading volume of the Four Witches calendar has been very huge,<b>However, what is more noteworthy this time is that the volatility of U.S. stocks was very low before, and the hint of the Fed's liquidity turnaround has already come out.</b></p><p>In the past 13 trading days, the volatility of the S&P 500 index is only 5.1%, which is the lowest volatility since 2019. However, compared with the lifeless market, the volatility of individual stocks is extremely great, especially retail stocks, such as GME and AMC.</p><p>Charlie McElligott of Nomura notes,<b>Very low market volatility coexisting with a large number of bullish gamma options expiring is very dangerous,</b>Because once positions are closed collectively, real volatility may pick up instantaneously. Meanwhile, the rising VIX index futures relative to the S&P 500 Beta indicates that if there is a sell-off in the market, the short gamma position will recover and the market will become more volatile.</p><p>In addition, the Fed's interest rate meeting on Thursday did not indicate immediate tightening of liquidity, but it also admitted that high inflation will not disappear in the short term, which is equivalent to walking a tightrope between pigeons and hawks. But on Friday, it took real action to tighten liquidity.</p><p>On Friday,<b>Sixty-eight counterparties put $756 billion in funds to the Federal Reserve through overnight reverse repurchase instruments, setting a record high of $584 billion.</b>And the day before. The use of the Fed's overnight reverse repo rate is only $520.9 billion. This represents a $235.1 billion increase in the use of the tool in just one day, a whopping 45% increase.</p><p>The effect of the Fed's reverse repurchase is just the opposite of that of China. Simply put, the role of the central bank's reverse repurchase is to release liquidity, while the Fed's reverse repurchase is to recover liquidity. Single-day usage of the Fed's reverse repo vehicle has exceeded $500 billion for seven consecutive trading sessions since it crossed the $500 billion mark for the first time in usage history last Wednesday.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be0bdd49975f3ab5453ab8ae8b24f37e","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SVXY":"做空波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF","UVXY":"1.5倍做多短期期货恐慌指数ETF-Proshares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144572198","content_text":"美股今年第二个“四巫日”今晚到来，届时将有超2万亿美元美股期权到期，加上美联储暗示流动性或收紧，此次“四巫日”或许是美股的一个转折点。\n四巫日(Quadruplewitchingday)是指美国市场于季月(三月、六月、九月、十二月)第三个星期五之衍生性金融商品到期结算日，股指期货、股指期权、股票期权以及单一股票期货，都在同一天到期交割。这四种资产类别同时交割会带来剧烈的市场波动，多头空头相互博弈。\n本周五到期的期权包括：价值2400亿美元的标普500指数ETF期权，2000亿美元的迷你标普500指数期货以及1.8万亿美元的标普500指数期权，总计价值超2万亿美元。\n\n由于近期美股一直在创新高，预计大部分6月未平仓合约价格都低于当前的现货价格。如下图所示，行权价在3900和4150附近期权分布最密集。这意味着在本周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的支撑，直到被新的gamma重新填充。\n\n四巫日历来成交量都非常巨大，但此次更值得注意的点是，此前美股波动率非常低，另外美联储流动性转折的暗示已经出来了。\n过去13个交易日，标普500指数波动率仅有5.1%，这是自2019年以来最低的波动率，但是与大盘死气沉沉相比，个股的波动性却极大，特别是散户抱团股，如GME和AMC等。\n野村证券的Charlie McElligott指出，极低的大盘波动率与大量看涨gamma期权到期并存非常危险，因为一旦头寸集体平仓，实际波动率可能会瞬间回升。同时，VIX指数期货相对于标普500指数Beta值不断上升，这表明，如果市场出现抛售，空头gamma仓位会回升，市场将变得更加不稳定。\n另外，周四的美联储议息会议并没有表示立即收紧流动性，但是也承认了通胀高企短期不会消失，相当于在鸽、鹰派之间走钢丝。但是周五却实实在在行动开始收紧流动性。\n周五，68家对手方通过隔夜逆回购工具将7560亿美元资金放到美联储，刷新了5840亿美元的纪录高位。而前一天。美联储的隔夜逆回购率的使用规模仅为5209亿美元。这意味着，在短短一天时间内，该工具的使用量增加了2351亿美元，增幅高达45%。\n美联储逆回购功效和中国刚刚相反，简单来说，我国央行逆回购的作用是为了释放流动性，而美联储逆回购则是为了收回流动性。自上周三用量史上首次突破5000亿美元大关以来，美联储逆回购工具的单日用量已连续七个交易日超过5000亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"VIXmain":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"VIXY":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SVXY":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"UVXY":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196351528,"gmtCreate":1621029881264,"gmtModify":1704352073045,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VOO\">$Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF(VOO)$</a>????","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VOO\">$Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF(VOO)$</a>????","text":"$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30c5ac401beb271df4f8be2b542614d6","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/196351528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198347874,"gmtCreate":1620940529298,"gmtModify":1704350710230,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"omg??‍♂️","listText":"omg??‍♂️","text":"omg??‍♂️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198347874","repostId":"1124198478","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124198478","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620917329,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124198478?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 22:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Ali dropped nearly 5% intraday, dropping shares to lowest since July last year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124198478","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四，阿里巴巴盘中跌近5%，股价低见209.50美元，较去年10月创下的峰值下跌了30％以上，目前股价为去年7月份以来最低。消息面上，阿里巴巴今日公布了2021财年四季度及全年财报。公司四季度经营亏损","content":"<p>On Thursday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell nearly 5% in the session, sending shares as low as $209.50, down more than 30% from the peak set in October last year, and now trading at the lowest price since July last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b300acd6dc2868d9f4b9814b67022715\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the news, Alibaba today announced its fourth quarter and full-year financial report of fiscal year 2021. The company's operating loss in the fourth quarter was 7.663 billion, the first quarterly loss since Ali's listing. The company said the losses were mainly affected by fines from antitrust investigations. Excluding this one-off impact, the Company's operating profit was RMB10.565 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 48%.</p><p><b>Click to view:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1195138527\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Alibaba Group Fourth Quarter and Full Year Report for Fiscal Year 2021</b></a></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ali dropped nearly 5% intraday, dropping shares to lowest since July last year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAli dropped nearly 5% intraday, dropping shares to lowest since July last year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-13 22:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Thursday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell nearly 5% in the session, sending shares as low as $209.50, down more than 30% from the peak set in October last year, and now trading at the lowest price since July last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b300acd6dc2868d9f4b9814b67022715\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the news, Alibaba today announced its fourth quarter and full-year financial report of fiscal year 2021. The company's operating loss in the fourth quarter was 7.663 billion, the first quarterly loss since Ali's listing. The company said the losses were mainly affected by fines from antitrust investigations. Excluding this one-off impact, the Company's operating profit was RMB10.565 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 48%.</p><p><b>Click to view:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1195138527\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Alibaba Group Fourth Quarter and Full Year Report for Fiscal Year 2021</b></a></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca2161e8ddb469de4171b1fb09459c6b","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124198478","content_text":"周四，阿里巴巴盘中跌近5%，股价低见209.50美元，较去年10月创下的峰值下跌了30％以上，目前股价为去年7月份以来最低。消息面上，阿里巴巴今日公布了2021财年四季度及全年财报。公司四季度经营亏损76.63亿，为阿里上市以来的首次季度亏损。公司称亏损主要受反垄断调查的罚款影响。剔除该一次性影响，公司的经营利润为人民币105.65亿元，同比增长48%。点击查看：阿里巴巴集团2021财年四季度及全年业绩报告","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2894,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193700638,"gmtCreate":1620815650124,"gmtModify":1704348815700,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/193700638","repostId":"1123721888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123721888","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620812439,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123721888?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-12 17:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tiger Brokers was included in the MSCI China All-Stock Index!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123721888","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"此次被纳入MSCI意味着国际资本市场对老虎证券的认可和信心！","content":"<p>On May 11th, MSCI, an international index compilation company, announced the quarterly adjustment results of the May index, among which,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Brokers</a>It is included in the MSCI China All Shares Index, which will take effect after the close of market on May 27.</p><p>Wu Tianhua, founder and CEO of Tiger Brokers, said: \"The inclusion of Tiger Brokers in the MSCI China All-Stock Index represents the recognition and confidence of the international market in our long-term investment value and development prospects. The mission of Tiger Brokers is that technology makes investment better. Through continuous technology iteration, we are committed to providing investors with a more efficient, convenient and smooth one-stop global investment experience. As Tiger enters Singapore, the United States and other countries and regions, we look forward to serving more global users. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cac618ec6413c15fd5aad09ee702621\" tg-width=\"405\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MSCI (MSCI) is the most important index company in the world at present, compiling hundreds of indices of various markets around the world, and is tracked by a large number of international institutions and investors as an investment benchmark. Since the release of the first index in 1969, MSCI has mainly provided products and services such as index, risk portfolio and performance analysis tools, and corporate governance tools according to different countries and regions, market size, industries and investment methods. About $10 trillion of global assets are benchmarked against the MSCI index, and 97 of the world's top 100 largest asset managers are MSCI clients. Pensions for 95% of invested interests in the United States are benchmarked against MSCI.</p><p>The MSCI China All Shares Index, compiled by MSCI, is the most important component of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. According to the adjustment method of MSCI index, companies that can be included in its index system generally have to meet a series of requirements such as total market value, free-float market value, liquidity and trading time.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8f2f148520e460cb20ee263c4b5fd2f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MSCI Official Website</span></p><p>MSCI China All Shares Index Historical Performance:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5df675372dbd49e16da8a583e0f650\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to the quarterly adjustment results released by MSCI, the MSCI China All-Stock Index added 60 new stocks and excluded 26 stocks this time. So, what does being on the list mean for Tiger?</p><p>It means the recognition and confidence of the international capital market in Tiger Brokers, which will help to further expand the influence of the company in the international capital market and enhance the internationalization level of the company's shareholders.</p><p>According to MSCI's estimate, trillions of dollars of funds around the world track emerging market indexes, including both active funds and passive funds. Passive funds take MSCI China All-Stock Index as their investment target. When stocks are included in the index, passive investors will allocate these new constituent stocks in proportion.</p><p>Details:</p><p><a href=\"https://www.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_May21_ChinaAllShares_PublicList.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Adjustment of MSCI China Index Constituent Stocks</a></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tiger Brokers was included in the MSCI China All-Stock Index!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTiger Brokers was included in the MSCI China All-Stock Index!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-12 17:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On May 11th, MSCI, an international index compilation company, announced the quarterly adjustment results of the May index, among which,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Brokers</a>It is included in the MSCI China All Shares Index, which will take effect after the close of market on May 27.</p><p>Wu Tianhua, founder and CEO of Tiger Brokers, said: \"The inclusion of Tiger Brokers in the MSCI China All-Stock Index represents the recognition and confidence of the international market in our long-term investment value and development prospects. The mission of Tiger Brokers is that technology makes investment better. Through continuous technology iteration, we are committed to providing investors with a more efficient, convenient and smooth one-stop global investment experience. As Tiger enters Singapore, the United States and other countries and regions, we look forward to serving more global users. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cac618ec6413c15fd5aad09ee702621\" tg-width=\"405\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MSCI (MSCI) is the most important index company in the world at present, compiling hundreds of indices of various markets around the world, and is tracked by a large number of international institutions and investors as an investment benchmark. Since the release of the first index in 1969, MSCI has mainly provided products and services such as index, risk portfolio and performance analysis tools, and corporate governance tools according to different countries and regions, market size, industries and investment methods. About $10 trillion of global assets are benchmarked against the MSCI index, and 97 of the world's top 100 largest asset managers are MSCI clients. Pensions for 95% of invested interests in the United States are benchmarked against MSCI.</p><p>The MSCI China All Shares Index, compiled by MSCI, is the most important component of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. According to the adjustment method of MSCI index, companies that can be included in its index system generally have to meet a series of requirements such as total market value, free-float market value, liquidity and trading time.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8f2f148520e460cb20ee263c4b5fd2f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MSCI Official Website</span></p><p>MSCI China All Shares Index Historical Performance:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5df675372dbd49e16da8a583e0f650\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to the quarterly adjustment results released by MSCI, the MSCI China All-Stock Index added 60 new stocks and excluded 26 stocks this time. So, what does being on the list mean for Tiger?</p><p>It means the recognition and confidence of the international capital market in Tiger Brokers, which will help to further expand the influence of the company in the international capital market and enhance the internationalization level of the company's shareholders.</p><p>According to MSCI's estimate, trillions of dollars of funds around the world track emerging market indexes, including both active funds and passive funds. Passive funds take MSCI China All-Stock Index as their investment target. When stocks are included in the index, passive investors will allocate these new constituent stocks in proportion.</p><p>Details:</p><p><a href=\"https://www.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_May21_ChinaAllShares_PublicList.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Adjustment of MSCI China Index Constituent Stocks</a></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e4b807dafecc161ebbd0d3c42055f20","relate_stocks":{"TIGR":"老虎证券"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123721888","content_text":"5月11日消息，国际指数编制公司MSCI公布5月指数季度调整结果，其中，老虎证券获纳入MSCI中国全股票指数（MSCI China All Shares Index），将于5月27日收盘后生效。老虎证券创始人及CEO巫天华表示：“老虎证券获纳入MSCI中国全股票指数代表国际市场对我们长期投资价值和发展前景的认可和信心。老虎证券的使命是科技让投资更美好。通过不断技术迭代，我们致力于为投资者提供更高效、便捷、流畅的一站式全球投资体验。随着老虎进入新加坡，美国等国家和地区，我们期待服务更多全球用户。”MSCI（明晟）是目前全球最重要的指数公司，编制数百种全球各个市场的指数，被大量国际机构，投资者作为投资基准并跟踪。从 1969年发布第一只指数至今，MSCI按照国家和区域、市场规模大小、行业及投资方式的不同，主要提供指数、风险组合和业绩分析工具以及公司治理工具等产品和服务。全球约10万亿美元的资产以MSCI指数为基准，全球前100个最大资产管理者中，97个都是MSCI的客户。美国95%的投资权益的养老金以MSCI为基准。MSCI中国全股票指数(MSCI China All Shares Index)由摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)编制，是 MSCI新兴市场指数中最重要的组成部分。根据 MSCI指数的调整方法，能被纳入到其指数体系的公司一般要满足总市值、自由流通市值、流动性和交易时间等一系列要求。MSCI官网明晟中国全股票指数(MSCI China All Shares Index)历史表现：根据MSCI发布的季度调整结果， MSCI中国全股票指数本次新增60只个股，剔除26只股票。那么，上榜对于老虎意味着什么呢？意味着国际资本市场对老虎证券的认可和信心，有助于进一步扩大公司国际资本市场影响力、提升公司股东国际化水平。据 MSCI估算，全球数以万亿美元的资金跟踪新兴市场指数，其中既包含了主动型资金，又包含了被动型基金，被动型资金以明晟中国全股票指数作为投资标的。当股票被纳入指数后，被动型投资者会按比例配置新增这些成份股。详情查看：MSCI中国指数成分股调整说明","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TIGR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107703362,"gmtCreate":1620534780856,"gmtModify":1704344727141,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O\">$Realty Income Corp(O)$</a>???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O\">$Realty Income Corp(O)$</a>???","text":"$Realty Income 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O\">$Realty Income Corp(O)$</a>??","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O\">$Realty Income Corp(O)$</a>??","text":"$Realty Income Corp(O)$??","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c1c74ebd41f9aa1e3bd632776e5351f","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/101513785","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100709511,"gmtCreate":1619647798833,"gmtModify":1704727198837,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O\">$Realty Income Corp(O)$</a>????","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O\">$Realty Income Corp(O)$</a>????","text":"$Realty Income Corp(O)$????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9045f37a6299dedf9992a1ce4b741abe","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/100709511","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377456128,"gmtCreate":1619561516664,"gmtModify":1704725799670,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O\">$Realty Income Corp(O)$</a>????","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O\">$Realty Income Corp(O)$</a>????","text":"$Realty Income Corp(O)$????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5afd21fae3a575cd0650c42c379027ec","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377456128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372672978,"gmtCreate":1619215918394,"gmtModify":1704721304165,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??‍♂️??‍♂️","listText":"??‍♂️??‍♂️","text":"??‍♂️??‍♂️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372672978","repostId":"2129350241","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129350241","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619190546,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2129350241?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-23 23:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Will Biden raise taxes on the wealthy end the US stock bull market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129350241","media":"金融界","summary":"昨晚，美股再一次给拜登加税这头灰犀牛撞了一下腰，三大股指盘中集体快速跳水，最终收跌近1%。\n美股的跌幅看似不大，但弥漫在整个华尔街上空的担忧情绪越积越浓厚，并蔓延到了其他资产价格。\n美国十年期国债收益","content":"<p>Last night, the US stock market once again hit the gray rhino of Biden's tax increase. The three major stock indexes collectively dived rapidly in the session, and finally closed down nearly 1%.</p><p>The decline in U.S. stocks seemed modest, but the worry that permeated the entire Wall Street was building up and spreading to other asset prices.</p><p>The U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield also fell to 1.54% from its intraday high, and the 30-year U.S. bond yield also hit its lowest point since March.</p><p>Cryptocurrency has suffered a bleak decline. Bitcoin plummeted in response, even falling below the low point of last week's plunge. Bitcoin fell below the $49,000 mark, with a drop of more than 12% today. The data shows that tens of billions of yuan have been exploded.</p><p>Although the domestic Hong Kong A-stock market is booming, the scenery is unique, which is gratifying. However, as the center of gravity of global financial assets, the United States can't be too cautious about the current new situation in the United States.</p><p>When Trump campaigned against Biden, Trump directly said that if Biden entered the White House, it would bring \"the largest (magnitude) tax increase in history\" to the United States. Today, it seems that Trump is not talking nonsense. However, he also made it clear that \"by then you will see a Great Depression that you have never seen before, and you will have to go back to 1929. It can't be worse than that.\"</p><p>Will Trump's predictions come true?</p><p><h3>1</h3><h3>The largest levy in U.S. history</h3>Large-scale economic stimulus plans and large-scale tax hikes are all promises made explicitly by Biden during the campaign, and whether they can be implemented in the future or not, he is indeed \"handing over homework\" to the cows he bragged about before.</p><p>Raising taxes on the wealthy is only part of the plan. Combined with the information released one after another last month, the Biden administration's tax increase plan probably has several aspects:</p><p>1. Increase the federal corporate income tax from 21% to 28%;</p><p>2. Impose a minimum tax rate of 15% on companies with annual revenues exceeding $2 billion;</p><p>3. The income tax rate of the rich with an annual income of over $400,000 will be restored to 39.6%, and the 20% pre-tax deduction will be cancelled, and the upper limit of the deduction will be set at no more than 28%, plus the existing investment income surtax, which means that the tax rate may be as high as 43.4%, and the capital gains tax rate in high-tax states may even exceed 50%;</p><p>4. Increase the minimum tax rate of multinational corporations, the minimum tax rate of enterprises with global book revenue exceeding US$1 million to 15%, and the tax rate of overseas branches in the United States from 10.5% to 21%;</p><p>5. Increase capital gains tax on the rich. For example, if you sell cryptocurrency after holding it for more than one year, you will face the risk of capital gains tax;</p><p>6. Social security for high-income people is levied at 12.4%.</p><p>If all the above plans can be achieved, it will be the largest federal tax increase since 1942.</p><p>The purpose of these tax increases is naturally to fill a small number of trillions of economic stimulus plans signed by himself since taking office, as well as various pits left by the Trump era, and try to save the fiscal deficit that the United States is currently flying fast and uncontrollable.</p><p>With the $1.9 trillion epidemic relief stimulus package and the $2.25 trillion infrastructure and employment support package passed by Biden since he took office, plus the two special budgets of $2 trillion and $880 billion passed by Congress last year, the water released by the United States has long exceeded 5 trillion, which is equivalent to using more than 25% of the U.S. GDP to stimulate the economy.</p><p>At present, the balance of federal debt in the United States has barely reached $30 trillion, more than 130 percent of its GDP.</p><p>It can be said that the current economic boom in the United States is actually supported more by the continuous release of the amount of liquidity. In addition to the trillions of economic stimulus plans, it also includes stimulating the demand side through direct payment, and then the consequence of this strong drug is the rapid rise of the fiscal deficit.</p><p>But even so, the current economic situation in the United States remains problematic.</p><p>In American history, such a large-scale taxation of corporations and the wealthy was not the Great Depression of 1929 (the 31st President Hoover era), as Trump called it, but the beginning of the new President Franklin Roosevelt's \"New Deal\" after the Great Depression. So Trump is ambiguous and carries private goods.</p><p>In fact, Trump is more like the lavish President Hoover than Biden.</p><p>When Franklin Roosevelt took office at a critical moment, he had to impose hefty taxes in the face of the debt situation left by his predecessor, Hoover. Its top federal corporate tax rate was raised from 63% to 94% during its tenure, and has maintained it for a long time thereafter.</p><p>It is difficult for us to give a fair evaluation of the effect of Roosevelt's New Deal. Although it alleviated the fiscal deficit problem of the United States to a certain extent, it also caused strong opposition and confrontation from the business circles at that time. In the end, in the actual implementation, the effect of taxing the rich is not too obvious.</p><p>At the same time, Roosevelt's New Deal also created a new mode of state interference in economic development. Capitalism declared farewell to the era of laissez-faire policy, and ushered in the Keynesian era with government interference in economic behavior.</p><p><h3>2</h3><h3>Does raising taxes on the rich really work?</h3>In the magical year of 2020 last year, or until now, the United States lived by paying money under the impact of the severe epidemic, but the capital market in the United States was extremely prosperous, resulting in an increase in the wealth of the top 1% of rich people in the United States, with an overall increase of more than $1 trillion in wealth.</p><p>For example, the richest man in the world<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Founder Bezos's wealth soared by nearly 80%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Musk's wealth has increased by more than 7 times and so on.</p><p>So, Biden's incentive to tax the wealthy is arguably great.</p><p>According to the calculation of Biden's tax increase plan, if the above tax increase policy can be effectively implemented, it will bring a total revenue of 2.1 trillion US dollars to the US finance, which can basically cover the cost of 2.25 trillion infrastructure plans.</p><p>But just because the abacus is loud, it doesn't mean that you can collect money.</p><p>The lessons of previous American presidents have proved that in capitalist countries, raising taxes on capitalists who control the right to speak is simply seeking skin from a tiger. Not only is it difficult, but it may even be life-threatening.</p><p>Although taxing the wealthy has won the approval of ordinary Americans amid the intensifying conflict between the rich and the poor, there is still much uncertainty about whether Biden's proposal to be released next week will pass.</p><p>First, the current policy of raising taxes is highly controversial within the United States. As a bitter enemy, any form of tax increase by the Democratic Biden administration is unlikely to get the support of the Republican Party, especially the current tax increase policy of the Democratic Party is obviously opposite to the direction of the Trump administration this time. Agreeing with Biden is undoubtedly equivalent to slapping yourself in the face.</p><p>Not to mention that the process of finally passing the bill will be very long. At present, the bipartisan structure in the Senate is 50-50. If some Democratic lawmakers defect, the final tax increase plan will be suspended. Earlier, I heard that three lawmakers stated that they would not support any tax reform plan unless the current $10,000 tax relief ceiling was cancelled.</p><p>From the point of view that the tax increase is to subsidize the expenditure of infrastructure plans, there are still many uncertainties at the source. In this case, it is doubtful that the tax increase plan can be fully implemented.</p><p>On the other hand, even if the tax package is passed, the final effect may not be as good as imagined.</p><p>In the United States, taxing high-income groups has always been very difficult, because these rich people are surrounded by a group of extremely professional accountants who can help them avoid most taxes through various legal loopholes.</p><p>Those who set up companies can increase their costs at home to offset them, or adjust their income structure to seek lower tax rates, or even move their domicile to overseas tax havens.</p><p>This is why the United States has recently tried to coax the G20 countries to set a global consensus minimum tax rate to specifically crack down on the practice of American companies diverting profits through tax havens to retain tax sources.</p><p>But the accountants of the wealthy in America still have plenty of ways to evade taxes.</p><p>Buffett once wrote an article \"Stop Pampering the Super Rich\" that profoundly reflected the \"inequality\" in taxation in the United States. Although he makes hundreds of millions of money every year, through reasonable avoidance, his actual tax rate is only about half that of his company's employees, and even the cleaners in his office are higher than him.</p><p>In tax avoidance, Trump is the king:</p><p>Most of the Trump family's expenses go to the company's accounts, as well as luxury assets such as mansions, planes and resort estates that were originally private expenses, all of which are listed on the company's accounts.</p><p>So the information Trump provided to the tax office is that most of his assets are in losses, and these losses have helped him exempt at least $600 million in taxes.</p><p>Although Trump's personal wealth was as high as $4 billion during his tenure, he didn't pay a penny to the tax office in 10 of the 15 years before 2016, and only paid $750 in personal tax after being subjected to stricter supervision in the few years he took office.</p><p>What's even more exaggerated is that because of the \"loss\" of his assets, Trump also got a tax refund subsidy of $72.9 million in 2010, got back all the taxes paid for several years, and earned a lot of interest.</p><p>So we can see that there is a very obvious trend in the United States, with higher and higher debt, and lower and lower taxes for the rich and high-income people.</p><p>So now that the Biden administration really wants to tax corporations and the wealthy, it's hard to say how much revenue it can collect.</p><p>In fact, in the end, the most affected tax increase will not be the rich class or the barefoot bottom class, but will target some small and medium-sized enterprises and middle-class families with an annual income of more than $400,000.</p><p>In fact, the actual burden of the middle class in the United States is already very heavy. Monthly expensive expenses such as pension, personal tax, medical insurance, education, transportation, etc. make it almost impossible for them to save money. This is why the United States is an advanced consumption country. In fact, it is not that they don't want to save money.</p><p>It can be seen that under the background of a large amount of water release, the income growth rate of the middle class is not as fast as the water release rate, and the purchasing power of commodities continues to rise. Now, with a large tax added, the situation is bound to be even worse.</p><p>At present, what Biden can do is to continue to send cash to maintain consumer demand, and then continue to release water to stimulate the economy and employment. After all, the current mess is too big.</p><p>In fact, Biden probably knows that raising taxes on the rich under the existing system is actually difficult to be effective, but at least he has to make the appearance first, which will make some achievements.</p><p>As for whether it is necessary to add other policies to make this tax increase policy land later, it will be waited and seen.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3>Can the boom in U.S. stocks continue?</h3>It is an easy problem to slap in the face, but it is necessary to analyze it.</p><p>We can see that as soon as Biden's tax increase plan came out this time, U.S. stocks began to fall collectively, especially the technology stocks with the largest increase in recent years fell most obviously.</p><p>It shows that the market has reacted greatly to the policy of doubling capital gains tax, although there is still great uncertainty.</p><p>If you are right, the current capital gains tax in the United States is around 0-20%. If the profits tax increases substantially, the impact will indeed be great.</p><p>At present, this batch of technology stocks that have grown wildly in recent years are the biggest thrust for the continuous strength of US stocks. They are not only the favorite of countless rich Americans, but also the ballast stone of many top funds, and they are also the unanimous choice of countless leveraged retail investors in the United States, so no one wants these technologies to fall.</p><p>However, now the underlying logic of the prosperity of U.S. stocks is more the asset bubble caused by the huge amount of water release, rather than the valuation increase caused by the profit growth of strong economic enterprises (the current strong U.S. economic data is that post-epidemic repair can't be regarded as a long-term trend). Now, the market's expectation of tightening liquidity in the United States has risen. What can the future increase of these asset bubbles support?</p><p>A while ago, the continuous rise of the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds in the United States frightened the market several times, and the volatility of several major indexes of U.S. stocks, especially the Nasdaq index, increased obviously, which somewhat shows that the foundation of optimism in the market has loosened.</p><p>If the U.S. capital gains tax really increases significantly, will the holders of these technology stocks have a chain reaction because someone rushes to the ground without the doubt of determining the upside in the future?</p><p><h3>4</h3><h3>epilogue</h3>The so-called heavenly path is good for reincarnation, and history is always strikingly similar.</p><p>In the Coolidge and Hoover era, they successively adopted a large number of tax cuts and quantitative easing to stimulate the American economy to unprecedented prosperity. The hottest bubble burst led to the Great Depression in 1929. Then Roosevelt came out to clean up the mess, trying to revive the economy by borrowing money for infrastructure and raising taxes on the wealthy, which intensified actual internal conflicts.</p><p>It is difficult to imagine the outcome of Roosevelt's New Deal if it were not for the demand stimulus of World War II during his tenure that brought the American economy back to prosperity.</p><p>Since the subprime mortgage crisis, Obama and Trump have taken roughly similar paths to those of Coolidge and Hoover in those days. They have also rapidly accumulated unprecedented debt and asset bubbles, and then Biden is following the same routine as Roosevelt. Although the United States as a whole still looks good at present, the current accumulation risk cannot be underestimated.</p><p>From a longer-term perspective, if the infrastructure plan of the United States is effectively implemented, it will inevitably revitalize the real economy of the United States, but after all, it is still a long way to achieve results.</p><p>Before this, will there be a wave of releasing risks in U.S. stocks?</p>","source":"jinrongjie_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Biden raise taxes on the wealthy end the US stock bull market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Biden raise taxes on the wealthy end the US stock bull market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金融界</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-23 23:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last night, the US stock market once again hit the gray rhino of Biden's tax increase. The three major stock indexes collectively dived rapidly in the session, and finally closed down nearly 1%.</p><p>The decline in U.S. stocks seemed modest, but the worry that permeated the entire Wall Street was building up and spreading to other asset prices.</p><p>The U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield also fell to 1.54% from its intraday high, and the 30-year U.S. bond yield also hit its lowest point since March.</p><p>Cryptocurrency has suffered a bleak decline. Bitcoin plummeted in response, even falling below the low point of last week's plunge. Bitcoin fell below the $49,000 mark, with a drop of more than 12% today. The data shows that tens of billions of yuan have been exploded.</p><p>Although the domestic Hong Kong A-stock market is booming, the scenery is unique, which is gratifying. However, as the center of gravity of global financial assets, the United States can't be too cautious about the current new situation in the United States.</p><p>When Trump campaigned against Biden, Trump directly said that if Biden entered the White House, it would bring \"the largest (magnitude) tax increase in history\" to the United States. Today, it seems that Trump is not talking nonsense. However, he also made it clear that \"by then you will see a Great Depression that you have never seen before, and you will have to go back to 1929. It can't be worse than that.\"</p><p>Will Trump's predictions come true?</p><p><h3>1</h3><h3>The largest levy in U.S. history</h3>Large-scale economic stimulus plans and large-scale tax hikes are all promises made explicitly by Biden during the campaign, and whether they can be implemented in the future or not, he is indeed \"handing over homework\" to the cows he bragged about before.</p><p>Raising taxes on the wealthy is only part of the plan. Combined with the information released one after another last month, the Biden administration's tax increase plan probably has several aspects:</p><p>1. Increase the federal corporate income tax from 21% to 28%;</p><p>2. Impose a minimum tax rate of 15% on companies with annual revenues exceeding $2 billion;</p><p>3. The income tax rate of the rich with an annual income of over $400,000 will be restored to 39.6%, and the 20% pre-tax deduction will be cancelled, and the upper limit of the deduction will be set at no more than 28%, plus the existing investment income surtax, which means that the tax rate may be as high as 43.4%, and the capital gains tax rate in high-tax states may even exceed 50%;</p><p>4. Increase the minimum tax rate of multinational corporations, the minimum tax rate of enterprises with global book revenue exceeding US$1 million to 15%, and the tax rate of overseas branches in the United States from 10.5% to 21%;</p><p>5. Increase capital gains tax on the rich. For example, if you sell cryptocurrency after holding it for more than one year, you will face the risk of capital gains tax;</p><p>6. Social security for high-income people is levied at 12.4%.</p><p>If all the above plans can be achieved, it will be the largest federal tax increase since 1942.</p><p>The purpose of these tax increases is naturally to fill a small number of trillions of economic stimulus plans signed by himself since taking office, as well as various pits left by the Trump era, and try to save the fiscal deficit that the United States is currently flying fast and uncontrollable.</p><p>With the $1.9 trillion epidemic relief stimulus package and the $2.25 trillion infrastructure and employment support package passed by Biden since he took office, plus the two special budgets of $2 trillion and $880 billion passed by Congress last year, the water released by the United States has long exceeded 5 trillion, which is equivalent to using more than 25% of the U.S. GDP to stimulate the economy.</p><p>At present, the balance of federal debt in the United States has barely reached $30 trillion, more than 130 percent of its GDP.</p><p>It can be said that the current economic boom in the United States is actually supported more by the continuous release of the amount of liquidity. In addition to the trillions of economic stimulus plans, it also includes stimulating the demand side through direct payment, and then the consequence of this strong drug is the rapid rise of the fiscal deficit.</p><p>But even so, the current economic situation in the United States remains problematic.</p><p>In American history, such a large-scale taxation of corporations and the wealthy was not the Great Depression of 1929 (the 31st President Hoover era), as Trump called it, but the beginning of the new President Franklin Roosevelt's \"New Deal\" after the Great Depression. So Trump is ambiguous and carries private goods.</p><p>In fact, Trump is more like the lavish President Hoover than Biden.</p><p>When Franklin Roosevelt took office at a critical moment, he had to impose hefty taxes in the face of the debt situation left by his predecessor, Hoover. Its top federal corporate tax rate was raised from 63% to 94% during its tenure, and has maintained it for a long time thereafter.</p><p>It is difficult for us to give a fair evaluation of the effect of Roosevelt's New Deal. Although it alleviated the fiscal deficit problem of the United States to a certain extent, it also caused strong opposition and confrontation from the business circles at that time. In the end, in the actual implementation, the effect of taxing the rich is not too obvious.</p><p>At the same time, Roosevelt's New Deal also created a new mode of state interference in economic development. Capitalism declared farewell to the era of laissez-faire policy, and ushered in the Keynesian era with government interference in economic behavior.</p><p><h3>2</h3><h3>Does raising taxes on the rich really work?</h3>In the magical year of 2020 last year, or until now, the United States lived by paying money under the impact of the severe epidemic, but the capital market in the United States was extremely prosperous, resulting in an increase in the wealth of the top 1% of rich people in the United States, with an overall increase of more than $1 trillion in wealth.</p><p>For example, the richest man in the world<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Founder Bezos's wealth soared by nearly 80%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Musk's wealth has increased by more than 7 times and so on.</p><p>So, Biden's incentive to tax the wealthy is arguably great.</p><p>According to the calculation of Biden's tax increase plan, if the above tax increase policy can be effectively implemented, it will bring a total revenue of 2.1 trillion US dollars to the US finance, which can basically cover the cost of 2.25 trillion infrastructure plans.</p><p>But just because the abacus is loud, it doesn't mean that you can collect money.</p><p>The lessons of previous American presidents have proved that in capitalist countries, raising taxes on capitalists who control the right to speak is simply seeking skin from a tiger. Not only is it difficult, but it may even be life-threatening.</p><p>Although taxing the wealthy has won the approval of ordinary Americans amid the intensifying conflict between the rich and the poor, there is still much uncertainty about whether Biden's proposal to be released next week will pass.</p><p>First, the current policy of raising taxes is highly controversial within the United States. As a bitter enemy, any form of tax increase by the Democratic Biden administration is unlikely to get the support of the Republican Party, especially the current tax increase policy of the Democratic Party is obviously opposite to the direction of the Trump administration this time. Agreeing with Biden is undoubtedly equivalent to slapping yourself in the face.</p><p>Not to mention that the process of finally passing the bill will be very long. At present, the bipartisan structure in the Senate is 50-50. If some Democratic lawmakers defect, the final tax increase plan will be suspended. Earlier, I heard that three lawmakers stated that they would not support any tax reform plan unless the current $10,000 tax relief ceiling was cancelled.</p><p>From the point of view that the tax increase is to subsidize the expenditure of infrastructure plans, there are still many uncertainties at the source. In this case, it is doubtful that the tax increase plan can be fully implemented.</p><p>On the other hand, even if the tax package is passed, the final effect may not be as good as imagined.</p><p>In the United States, taxing high-income groups has always been very difficult, because these rich people are surrounded by a group of extremely professional accountants who can help them avoid most taxes through various legal loopholes.</p><p>Those who set up companies can increase their costs at home to offset them, or adjust their income structure to seek lower tax rates, or even move their domicile to overseas tax havens.</p><p>This is why the United States has recently tried to coax the G20 countries to set a global consensus minimum tax rate to specifically crack down on the practice of American companies diverting profits through tax havens to retain tax sources.</p><p>But the accountants of the wealthy in America still have plenty of ways to evade taxes.</p><p>Buffett once wrote an article \"Stop Pampering the Super Rich\" that profoundly reflected the \"inequality\" in taxation in the United States. Although he makes hundreds of millions of money every year, through reasonable avoidance, his actual tax rate is only about half that of his company's employees, and even the cleaners in his office are higher than him.</p><p>In tax avoidance, Trump is the king:</p><p>Most of the Trump family's expenses go to the company's accounts, as well as luxury assets such as mansions, planes and resort estates that were originally private expenses, all of which are listed on the company's accounts.</p><p>So the information Trump provided to the tax office is that most of his assets are in losses, and these losses have helped him exempt at least $600 million in taxes.</p><p>Although Trump's personal wealth was as high as $4 billion during his tenure, he didn't pay a penny to the tax office in 10 of the 15 years before 2016, and only paid $750 in personal tax after being subjected to stricter supervision in the few years he took office.</p><p>What's even more exaggerated is that because of the \"loss\" of his assets, Trump also got a tax refund subsidy of $72.9 million in 2010, got back all the taxes paid for several years, and earned a lot of interest.</p><p>So we can see that there is a very obvious trend in the United States, with higher and higher debt, and lower and lower taxes for the rich and high-income people.</p><p>So now that the Biden administration really wants to tax corporations and the wealthy, it's hard to say how much revenue it can collect.</p><p>In fact, in the end, the most affected tax increase will not be the rich class or the barefoot bottom class, but will target some small and medium-sized enterprises and middle-class families with an annual income of more than $400,000.</p><p>In fact, the actual burden of the middle class in the United States is already very heavy. Monthly expensive expenses such as pension, personal tax, medical insurance, education, transportation, etc. make it almost impossible for them to save money. This is why the United States is an advanced consumption country. In fact, it is not that they don't want to save money.</p><p>It can be seen that under the background of a large amount of water release, the income growth rate of the middle class is not as fast as the water release rate, and the purchasing power of commodities continues to rise. Now, with a large tax added, the situation is bound to be even worse.</p><p>At present, what Biden can do is to continue to send cash to maintain consumer demand, and then continue to release water to stimulate the economy and employment. After all, the current mess is too big.</p><p>In fact, Biden probably knows that raising taxes on the rich under the existing system is actually difficult to be effective, but at least he has to make the appearance first, which will make some achievements.</p><p>As for whether it is necessary to add other policies to make this tax increase policy land later, it will be waited and seen.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3>Can the boom in U.S. stocks continue?</h3>It is an easy problem to slap in the face, but it is necessary to analyze it.</p><p>We can see that as soon as Biden's tax increase plan came out this time, U.S. stocks began to fall collectively, especially the technology stocks with the largest increase in recent years fell most obviously.</p><p>It shows that the market has reacted greatly to the policy of doubling capital gains tax, although there is still great uncertainty.</p><p>If you are right, the current capital gains tax in the United States is around 0-20%. If the profits tax increases substantially, the impact will indeed be great.</p><p>At present, this batch of technology stocks that have grown wildly in recent years are the biggest thrust for the continuous strength of US stocks. They are not only the favorite of countless rich Americans, but also the ballast stone of many top funds, and they are also the unanimous choice of countless leveraged retail investors in the United States, so no one wants these technologies to fall.</p><p>However, now the underlying logic of the prosperity of U.S. stocks is more the asset bubble caused by the huge amount of water release, rather than the valuation increase caused by the profit growth of strong economic enterprises (the current strong U.S. economic data is that post-epidemic repair can't be regarded as a long-term trend). Now, the market's expectation of tightening liquidity in the United States has risen. What can the future increase of these asset bubbles support?</p><p>A while ago, the continuous rise of the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds in the United States frightened the market several times, and the volatility of several major indexes of U.S. stocks, especially the Nasdaq index, increased obviously, which somewhat shows that the foundation of optimism in the market has loosened.</p><p>If the U.S. capital gains tax really increases significantly, will the holders of these technology stocks have a chain reaction because someone rushes to the ground without the doubt of determining the upside in the future?</p><p><h3>4</h3><h3>epilogue</h3>The so-called heavenly path is good for reincarnation, and history is always strikingly similar.</p><p>In the Coolidge and Hoover era, they successively adopted a large number of tax cuts and quantitative easing to stimulate the American economy to unprecedented prosperity. The hottest bubble burst led to the Great Depression in 1929. Then Roosevelt came out to clean up the mess, trying to revive the economy by borrowing money for infrastructure and raising taxes on the wealthy, which intensified actual internal conflicts.</p><p>It is difficult to imagine the outcome of Roosevelt's New Deal if it were not for the demand stimulus of World War II during his tenure that brought the American economy back to prosperity.</p><p>Since the subprime mortgage crisis, Obama and Trump have taken roughly similar paths to those of Coolidge and Hoover in those days. They have also rapidly accumulated unprecedented debt and asset bubbles, and then Biden is following the same routine as Roosevelt. Although the United States as a whole still looks good at present, the current accumulation risk cannot be underestimated.</p><p>From a longer-term perspective, if the infrastructure plan of the United States is effectively implemented, it will inevitably revitalize the real economy of the United States, but after all, it is still a long way to achieve results.</p><p>Before this, will there be a wave of releasing risks in U.S. stocks?</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://hk.jrj.com.cn/2021/04/23221532432651.shtml\">金融界</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a06fb8b1db7037b689423e44b4d5b305","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://hk.jrj.com.cn/2021/04/23221532432651.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129350241","content_text":"昨晚，美股再一次给拜登加税这头灰犀牛撞了一下腰，三大股指盘中集体快速跳水，最终收跌近1%。\n美股的跌幅看似不大，但弥漫在整个华尔街上空的担忧情绪越积越浓厚，并蔓延到了其他资产价格。\n美国十年期国债收益率亦从盘中高点跌至1.54%，30年期美债收益率也创下了3月以来最低点。\n加密货币更是跌幅惨淡，比特币应声暴跌，甚至跌破了上周暴跌的低点，比特币跌破49000美元关口，今日跌幅超12%，数据显示又爆仓了几百亿元。\n虽然国内的港A股市一片飘红风景独好，固然令人欣慰。但美国作为全球金融资产的重心，我们再如何谨慎留意美国当下的新形势都不为过。\n在当初特朗普与拜登竞选的时候，特朗普直接表示过，如果拜登入主白宫，将会为美国带来“历史上最大（幅度）增税”，今天看来特朗普没有瞎说。不过，他也明确表示，“到时你们将会看到一场你们从未见过的大萧条，你们不得不回到1929年，没有比那更糟糕的了。”\n特朗普的预言会成为现实吗？\n1\n美国史上最大的征税\n大规模的经济刺激计划和大规模加税都是拜登竞选时就明确许下的承诺，且不论将来能否落地，他确实是在向之前吹过的牛“交作业”。\n给富人加税只是计划中的一部分，结合上月来陆续公布的信息，拜登政府的加税方案大概有几个方面：\n1、把联邦企业所得税从21%提高到28%；\n2、向年收入超过20亿美元的公司征收15%的最低税率；\n3、年收入超40万美元富人所得税率恢复到39.6%，并取消20%的税前抵扣，并且设置抵扣上限为不超过28%，叠加上现有的投资收入附加税，这意味着税率可能高达43.4%，高税州的资本利得税率甚至可能会超过50%；\n4、提高跨国公司最低税率，全球账面营收超100万美元的企业最低税率提高至15%，美国海外分公司税率由10.5%提高到21%；\n5、增加富人的资本利得税。比如如果在持有加密货币一年以上之后出售的，将要面临资本利得税的风险；\n6、高收入人群社保按照12.4%征收。\n如果上面的计划都能实现个大概，那将会是1942年以来最大规模的联邦加税措施。\n这些加税的用途，自然是为了填补一小部分包括自己上任以来签署的数万亿经济刺激计划，以及特朗普时代留下的各种坑，尽量挽救一下美国目前放飞得快控制不住的财政赤字。\n拜登上任以来通过的1.9万亿美元疫情纾困刺激方案和2.25万亿美元的基础设施和就业支持计划，加上国会去年通过的2万亿与8800亿美元两笔特别预算，美国放的水早就超过5万亿，相当于动用美国GDP超25%来刺激经济。\n目前，美国联邦债务余额已差不达到了30万亿美元，超过其GDP的130%。\n可以说，美国当期的经济景气实际上更多是靠不断放出来的天量流动性支撑，除数万亿的经济刺激计划，还包括通过通过直接发钱的方式刺激需求端提振，然后这种猛药导致的后果是财政赤字的急速攀升。\n但即使是这样，美国目前的经济形势依然问题重重。\n在美国历史上，如此大规模的向企业和富人征税，其实不是特朗普所说的1929年时大萧条（第31任总统胡佛时代），而是大萧条发生后新任总统富兰克林・罗斯福上任推行“新政”对付大萧条开始的。所以特朗普是模棱两可夹带私货了。\n事实上，特朗普相比拜登反而更像大手大脚的胡佛总统。\n当年富兰克林・罗斯福临危受任，面对前任总统胡佛留下债台高筑的局面不得已做出的高额征税。其在任期的联邦企业最高税率从63%提高至94%，并在此后维持了很长时间。\n对于罗斯福新政效果我们很难给出一个公允的评价，虽然一定程度上缓解了美国的财政赤字问题，但也引起当时的工商界强烈反对和对抗。最终在实际执行中，对富人征税的效果并没有太明显的结果。\n同时罗斯福新政也开创了国家干预经济发展的新模式，资本主义宣告告别自由放任政策的时代，迎来了有政府干预经济行为的凯恩斯主义时代。\n2\n向富人加税真的有效吗？\n在去年魔幻的2020年，或者直到如今，美国在严峻的疫情冲击下靠发钱度日，但美国的资本市场却异常繁荣，导致美国最顶尖的那1%的富豪财富不减反增，整体增加超过1万亿美元的财富。\n比如，世界首富亚马逊创始人贝佐斯财富猛增近80%，特斯拉马斯克的财富增加超7倍等等。\n所以，拜登向富人征税的动机可以说很大。\n按照拜登加税方案的测算，如果上述加税政策能有效落地，那么合计就能为美国财政带来2.1万亿美元的收入，基本能覆盖所推行的2.25万亿基建计划用度了。\n但算盘打得响，不代表就能收得来钱。\n历届美国总统的经验教训证明，在资本主义国家，向掌控了话语权的资本家加税简直就是与虎谋皮，不仅难度大，搞不好甚至真的还有生命危险。\n虽然在日益激化的贫富两极矛盾形势下，对于富人征税深得美国普通民众的赞同，但拜登下周公布的这项提案想要获得通过还有很多不确定性。\n首先，目前的加税政策在美国内部争议很大。作为死对头，民主党的拜登政府任何形式的加税都不大可能得到共和党的支持，尤其是民主党现在的加税政策明显与此次特朗普政府的方向相反，赞同拜登那无疑等于自己打脸。\n且不说最终通过法案的流程会拉很长，目前参议院内两党格局为50比50，如果当中有民主党议员倒戈，那最终加税方案就悬了。此前听说有三位议员就表态除非取消目前1万美元的个税减免上限，否则不会支持任何税改方案。\n而从加税是给补贴基建计划开支的目的看，这在源头上也都还具有很多不确定性，这种情况下，加税方案能完全落地就值得怀疑了。\n另一方面，即使通过了征税方案，最终效果可能也不会有想象中那么好。\n在美国，对高收入群体征税从来都是非常困难，因为这些富豪的身边都有一群无比专业的会计师，可以帮他们通过各种法律漏洞为规避大部分的税收。\n开公司的在国内可以增加成本开支来抵扣、或者调节收入结构寻求更低的税率，甚至把注册地转移到海外的避税天堂。\n这也是为什么美国在近期试图拉拢G20国家制定全球一致最低税率来专门打击美国企业通过避税天堂转移利润做法，以留住税源的原因。\n但美国富人的会计师还有大把方式逃税。\n巴菲特曾经有一篇文章《停止宠爱超级富豪》中深刻反映出了美国在税收上“不平等”，虽然他每年赚的钱数以亿计，但通过合理的规避，他本人的实际税率仅有他公司雇员约一半，甚至连他办公室的清洁工都比他高。\n在避税这方面，特朗普堪称其中的王者：\n特朗普家族旗下大部分的开销用度都走公司账，以及豪宅、飞机、度假庄园等原本属于私人用度的奢侈资产，全都挂在公司的账上。\n所以特朗普提供给税务局的资料旗下大部分资产是亏损的，这些亏损至少帮他免除了6亿美元的税额。\n虽然特朗普在任期时的个人财富高达40亿美元，但其在2016年之前的15年里，有10年时间没有向税务局交过一分钱，上台几年接受更严监督也才缴纳了750美元的个税。\n更夸张的，因为旗下资产的“亏损”，特朗普2010年还拿到了7290万美元的退税补贴，把几年交的税都拿回来了，还赚了一大笔利息。\n所以可以看到美国有一个很明显的趋势，债务越来越高，富人和高收入人群的税收越来越低。\n所以现在拜登政府真要向企业和富人征税，究竟能收上来多少收入，真不好说。\n事实上，加税最终受最大影响的不会是富人阶级，也不是光脚的底层阶级，而是针对年收入40万美元以上部分中小企业和中产家庭。\n美国的中产阶级的实际负担其实已经很重，每月的养老、个税、医保、教育、交通等各种昂贵开支让他们几乎没办法存钱，这也是为何美国属于超前消费型国家，其实并不是他们不想存钱。\n可以看到，在天量放水的大背景下，中产阶级的收入增速还不如放水速度，物价持续上升购买力下降，如今再加大幅税，那情况必然是更加糟糕。\n目前拜登能做的首先除了继续现金发钱保持消费需求，然后继续放水刺激经济与就业之外其实也没多大手段了，毕竟目前这个烂摊子窟窿，实在太大。\n其实拜登很可能也是知道现有体制下向富人加税实际是很难有成效，但起码首先要先把样子做出来，多少会有点成绩。\n至于后面是否需要加码其他政策让这个加税政策落地，那是走着瞧了。\n3\n美股的繁荣还能持续吗？\n这是一个很容易打脸的问题，但很有必要分析一下。\n我们可以看到，这一次拜登的加税方案一出来，美股就开始出现集体下跌，尤其这些年涨幅最大的科技股跌最明显。\n说明市场对资本利得税可能翻倍的政策反应很大的，虽然依然还有较大不确定性。\n如果没错的话，目前美国的资本利得税在0-20%左右，如果利得税大增的话，那冲击确实会很大。\n美股当下这一批在这几年疯长的科技股，是拉升美股持续走强的最大推力，它们不但是无数美国富人群体的心头爱，也是很多顶级基金的压舱石，并且也是美国无数有加杠杆的散户的一致选择，所以谁都不想这些科技跌。\n但现在美股的繁荣底层逻辑更多的是天量的放水导致的资产泡沫，而非经济面强劲企业利润增长带来的估值提升（当前美国经济数据强势是疫后修复还不能算长期趋势），如今市场对美国收紧流动性的预期有所抬升，这些资产泡沫的未来增量靠什么去支撑？\n在前阵子，美国10年国债收益率持续攀升几度吓坏市场，美股几大指数尤其纳斯达克指数的波动明显加大，多少说明市场的乐观情绪根基是有松动了。\n如果美国资本利得税真大幅增加，在后续没有确定上行空间的疑虑下，这些科技股的持有者会不会因为有人抢跑而形成连锁反应？\n4\n结语\n所谓天道好轮回，历史总是惊人的相似。\n当年的柯立芝和胡佛时代，他们先后通过采用大量的减税和量化宽松来刺激美国经济走向空前异常繁荣，最热泡沫破裂导致是1929年的历史大萧条。然后罗斯福出来收拾残局，通过举债搞基建和向富人阶层加税来试图重振经济，搞得实际内部矛盾激化。\n要不是其任内发生的二战带来的需求刺激让美国经济重新繁荣，很难想象罗斯福的新政会带来什么样的结果。\n如今次贷危机以来，奥巴马和特朗普的采取的路径手法与当年的柯立芝和胡佛两人也大体类似，也是急速积累了空前的债务和资产泡沫，然后也是拜登在走着罗斯福同样的套路，虽然目前美国整体还看上去依然安好，但当下的积累风险性确实已不容小看。\n虽然从更长远的视角看，美国的基建计划如果有效推行，那必然会对美国的实体经济带来振兴，但毕竟想要见效还很远。\n在次之前，美股会不会有一波释放风险的大下杀呢？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376739393,"gmtCreate":1619147419712,"gmtModify":1704720375106,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/376739393","repostId":"1157007346","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157007346","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"经济-金融-投资","home_visible":1,"media_name":"李迅雷金融与投资","id":"71","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb163b204aa14697bd7477df15b8b6b1"},"pubTimestamp":1619146751,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157007346?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-23 10:59","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"China starts demographic transition, who will be the \"ten-fold stock\" at this stage","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157007346","media":"李迅雷金融与投资","summary":"新潮国货、互联网消费等将是“人口转型”下重要的消费投资机遇。","content":"<p>Xu Chi, Zhang Wenyu</p><p><b>Recently, the central bank released the working paper \"Understanding and Countermeasures on China's Population Transformation\", and the results of the seventh census were announced soon, which triggered heated discussions on topics such as \"demographic dividend\" and \"fertility rate\" in all walks of life, and aroused widespread concern in the capital market. The concept stocks related to \"liberalizing fertility\" have also soared recently. In fact, since the end of last year, various places announced the 2020<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABCD\">newly born</a>Since the news of the cliff-like decline in the children's population, the voices on population issues such as \"low birth rate\" and \"aging\" and the demand for \"immediate and urgent comprehensive liberalization of the fertility policy\" have also been \"endless\".</b></p><p><b>What is the essence of demographic dividend? In the next five years, under the \"critical point\" of three waves of baby boom, what kind of \"turning point\" will China's population situation face? Under the \"demographic transformation\", the downward trend of economic aggregate, especially real estate, seems inevitable, but does this necessarily mean the downward trend of economic quality and the exposure of systemic risks? From global experience, is fertility policy really key to determining birth rates? Can the policy of fully liberalizing and encouraging fertility \"cure the disease with medicine\"? Under the \"demographic transformation\", how will the capital market perform, and how to grasp the investment opportunity of \"ten times shares\" bred by the tide of social structural change?</b></p><p><b>This paper will focus on the above-mentioned focus problems for detailed deduction.</b></p><p><b>Main conclusions</b></p><p>1) The essence of the demographic dividend is \"demographic borrowing\" – between the ages of 18-65, the population is a social dividend, and after 65, the population is a social burden. This attribute determines that the greater the magnitude of the demographic dividend, the greater the demographic borrowing it extends-that is, the burden on the population after age 65.</p><p>2) In the next 5-10 years, with the first batch of founding \"baby boomers\" entering the \"death period\", the second batch of post-60s \"baby boomers\" entering the \"retirement tide\" and becoming people in need of financial support, and the third batch of post-80s \"baby boomers\" losing their \"golden childbearing age\". We believe that China's \"population transformation\" may move to the next turning point, that is, the fourth stage of \"accelerating aging and low birth\", which will have a profound impact on the economy and capital market.</p><p>3) Re-recognition of Japan's \"lost thirty years\", we find that if the policy is properly responded to, for example: promoting enterprises to go overseas through currency internationalization to improve the return on capital; Through the reform of income distribution, narrowing the polarization between the rich and the poor and increasing the consumption rate of the whole society to hedge against the shortage of domestic demand under the aging, the decline of economic aggregate does not necessarily mean the decline of economic quality. On this basis, we are still optimistic about the structural opportunities in the domestic capital market in the medium and long term.</p><p>4) Through the study of the success or failure of Japan's real estate regulation and control, the key to whether the downward trend of real estate under the aging of population leads to systemic risks lies in whether it can realize the \"smooth\" transition of housing price trend by implementing the policy of \"tightening before and loosening after\" in the two stages before and after the \"population transformation\". Since 2017, China's strict policy tone of \"housing for living, not speculation\" and sufficient policy space reserved, in the foreseeable future, there is no need to worry too much about the possibility of systemic risks caused by the downward trend of real estate under the aging population.</p><p>5) On the basis of the tremendous financial pressure of aging itself in the next five years. Since infants and young children themselves also require huge social resource investment and different regions have very different degrees of response to fertility policies, we believe that the policy of liberalizing and encouraging fertility is more likely to adopt a gradual and steady approach in line with national conditions, so as to reduce the burden on the consolidation of poverty alleviation achievements and maintaining stability caused by the \"two-way impact\" of \"fertility and retirement\" and the structural imbalance in fertility rates among regions.</p><p>6) The root cause of low birth and aging is not policy, but the inevitable product of a country's modernization-industrialization has raised the cost of raising children and the age of marriage and childbearing for modern families, while urbanization has compressed residents' living space and increased living cost and pressure. This is the reason why the implementation of policies to encourage fertility in different cultures and systems around the world is not satisfactory. The only few countries that have achieved phased results, such as Russia and France, have also aggravated the structural imbalance of fertility among ethnic groups in China, and the marginal effectiveness of policies has decreased, resulting in increasingly unbearable financial burdens.</p><p>Therefore, even if domestic policies to encourage fertility land, I'm afraid it will be difficult to change the general trend of downward fertility rate. Therefore, we are cautious about the thematic investment opportunities of \"liberalizing fertility\" that are hot in the current market.</p><p>7) Taking Japan as a lesson, the real medium-and long-term investment opportunity of \"demographic transformation\" may be at the \"aging end\": in the next 5-10 years, with the further intensification of domestic aging,<b>Related industries with increasing \"pure demand for the elderly\", such as: aged care, funeral and other market space or rapid increase;</b></p><p><b>However, the real investment opportunity of \"ten times bull stocks\" may be: under the acceleration of aging, the change of consumption mentality of the whole society-the improvement of life expectancy and the mentality of young and middle-aged people to prevent aging in advance,</b>For example, because of worry about living expenses in old age, increase<b>Insurance</b>Aspect expenditure; Because we want to delay aging, we pay more attention to health expenditure:<b>Medicines and health care, medical aesthetics, cosmeceuticals, health drinks</b>Will be more and more favored; For fear of lack of companionship,<b>Pet economy</b>Prevailing.</p><p>In addition,<b>As the \"wealth inheritance from generation to generation\" and the \"new generation consumption\" of the post-95-00 young people with the strongest marginal consumption tendency, such as: trendy domestic products and Internet consumption</b>It will also be an important consumption investment opportunity under the \"demographic transition\".</p><p><b>1. \"Honecker hypothesis\"-the essence of \"demographic dividend\" is \"demographic borrowing\"</b></p><p>On April 14, 2021, the central bank released the working paper \"Understanding and Countermeasures on China's Demographic Transition\". Among them, the most interesting new point of view in this working paper is \"demographic transformation\", that is, \"the benefits of demographic dividend have to be repaid after all, and the more dividends you get before, the heavier the burden to be repaid afterwards\". From an academic point of view, this sharp point of view has in fact a deep theoretical context. The idea of \"demographic transition\" or \"demographic borrowing\" is elaborated in the book \"Population Wave: How Demographic Change Shapes the Modern World\" by Paul Moran, a famous British demographer.</p><p>In the book, \"population borrowing\" is led by an interesting story: Honecker, the last leader of East Germany, after seeing the huge gap in average labor costs between West Germany and East Germany, raised the question that the backwardness of East Germany at that time was due to the artificial blockade of the West,<b>Assuming that East Germany is not hindered by its technological and capital links with the West, can East Germany take advantage of its relatively cheap and compliant high-quality labor force to enter the global market, and finally realize East Germany surpassing the West?</b></p><p>In fact, the \"Honecker hypothesis\" is the key to the \"development miracle\" of a series of developing countries, especially East Asian countries after World War II: through opening up to the outside world, introducing Western capital, making use of their own superior labor resources, and rapid urbanization and industrialization, the result often realizes the leap-forward development of their own economy and people's living standard in about a generation (30-40 years), such as the post-war economic miracle of Japan (1940-1980), the miracle of Brazil (1948-1979), the miracle of Han River in Korea (1953-1996), etc.</p><p>But,<b>From a longer perspective, after experiencing a period of \"demographic dividend\" with a generation of rapid growth, these countries often fall into a quagmire of longer-term economic slowdown or even stagnation accompanied by severe burdens of aging and low birth</b>For example, Japan and South Korea \"lost twenty years\" and \"Latin American trap\" after the 21st century, and in the end, they failed to surpass the West.</p><p><b>The reason why \"Honecker hypothesis\" failed to happen in practice is that it did not realize that the essence of \"demographic dividend\" is \"demographic borrowing\"</b>That is, before the age of 18, manpower is a social resource that needs to be continuously invested (corresponding to the \"I stage of demographic transition\" in the central bank's work report), and from the age of 18 to about 65, it is a high-quality asset that can generate rich social benefits (corresponding to the \"II stage of demographic transition\"). However, after the age of 64, the demographic dividend will inevitably become a burden on the population due to aging-at this time, people have lost most of their social benefits, but instead need long-term and continuous social assistance (corresponding to the \"III-IV stage of demographic transition\").</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea8c960e674c1afab007abf93d25d117\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>That's the subtlety of the demographic dividend, between the ages of 18-65, the population is the social dividend, and after 65, the population is the social burden. This attribute determines that the greater the magnitude of the demographic dividend, the greater the demographic borrowing it extends-that is, the burden on the population after age 65.</p><p><b>More importantly, the underlying hypothesis of \"Honecker hypothesis\": low labor cost advantage is essentially an abuse of demographic dividend, and abuse will more easily lead to unsustainability of human resources and development</b>For example, the rapid advancement of urbanization and industrialization will greatly increase residents' living costs such as housing prices, and at the same time, the long-term intentional maintenance of low labor costs will inevitably increase residents' living pressure and anxiety, and finally inevitably further weaken the reproductive ability of the population, resulting in irreversible damage to the sustainable utilization of human resources.</p><p><b>Second, China's \"demographic transformation\" in the next five years: the \"dusk\" of three waves of \"baby boom dividends\"</b></p><p>As far as China's own \"population transformation\" is concerned, if we say that the \"Lewis turning point\" when the labor-age population began to decrease around 2012 (from 2012 to now, China's labor-age population aged 16 to 60 has decreased by 30 million), it marks the formation of a turning point from labor surplus to shortage, that is, from the second stage to the third stage in the central bank's work report: the population size continues to grow but the growth rate slows down, and the economic growth rate turns from rising to falling but still keeps growing. Then, with the three waves of \"baby boom\" and \"dividend\" after the founding of the People's Republic of China in the next 5-10 years approaching the \"critical point\", China's \"population transformation\" may move to the next turning point:</p><p>Chart 2 details the three waves of baby boomers in China since the founding of the People's Republic of China. According to the birth peaks of these three waves of baby boomers, we can deduce China's \"demographic transformation\" in the next 5-10 years:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da516a8aae9e9ba50eac7e96685c13b8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>1) Considering that the average life expectancy of our population is 75 years,<b>Born in the first wave of the baby boom in the early days of the People's Republic of China (about 20 million births per year),</b>It is expected that it will gradually enter the \"end of the life cycle\" from 5 years later. From the perspective of life cycle, the expected death of the first wave of baby boomers will be from 2025 to 2029. Combined with the 10.035 million newborns in 2020 announced by the Ministry of Public Security, assuming that China's birth rate remains unchanged at this level, it is estimated that after 2025, China's population will decrease by about 10 million per year or net.</p><p>2) More urgently,<b>Starting in 2022, the main baby boom with the largest birth population in China's history (the \"baby boom\" from 1962) began to enter the concentrated retirement period</b>At the same time, a 2018 study by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences showed that the number of young people in China is continuously decreasing, with a net decrease of 30 million people in the next five years. The decline of the young population and the increase of the elderly population will undoubtedly greatly increase the financial burden of our country.</p><p>3) At the same time, as the \"echo\" of the post-60s baby boom, it is also the last \"baby boom\" in China: from the post-85s to the beginning of the 90s, the birth of the \"second child\" is the \"mainstay\" of maintaining the fertility rate of the whole society at present: in 2019, the second child accounted for 57% of the birth population, and the post-80s was the absolute main force among the second child.<b>In the next 5-10 years, these last \"baby boomers\" will also be over 35-40 years old, that is, they will gradually lose their \"golden childbearing age\"</b>At the same time, considering the continuous unilateral decline in fertility rate after 1991 and the rapid decline in the willingness to have children after the 90s. This means that even if the country vigorously liberalizes or even encourages childbearing, it is expected that it will be difficult to achieve the expected effect of the policy.</p><p>After the founding of the People's Republic of China in the next five years, the three \"baby boom dividends\" are gradually entering the \"dusk\". We believe that,<b>China's \"demographic transition\" may move towards the next inflection point, that is, from the third stage to the fourth stage</b>: The old-age dependency ratio is rising rapidly, aging and low birth are serious, and economic growth is further slowing down. As an investor, we need to pay close attention to the investment opportunities and risks contained in this social trend change.</p><p><b>3. \"Debate\" between economic quantity and quality under \"demographic transformation\": Re-cognition of Japan's \"lost thirty years\"</b></p><p>As far as the economy is concerned, in the long run, with the transition of China's population to the fourth stage (aging and low birth), the downward trend of economic aggregate indicators represented by GDP growth rate may be inevitable to some extent. But it should be noted that,<b>Quantity is not equal to quality, and the decline of economic aggregate under aging does not mean the inevitable decline of economic quality</b>It does not mean that the capital market loses its investment value. On the contrary, if appropriate policy measures are taken in the face of the challenge of aging, the economic structure may be further optimized, and the economic quality and national competitiveness may be improved in a new dimension.</p><p>Take Japan, the economy with the most serious aging and low birth rate in the world, as an example. It is generally believed that Japan has entered a long-term economic recession and stagnation since the bubble burst in 1990s. However, is that really the case if we jump outside the GDP framework?</p><p>First of all, from<b>Japanese Overseas Assets</b>According to the data of Japan's Ministry of Finance, by the end of 2019, Japan's overseas assets were USD 10 trillion, almost twice that of GDP, ranking fourth in the world, higher than the USD 7 trillion in mainland China;<b>Net assets after deducting liabilities are 3.4 trillion US dollars, ranking first in the world for 30 consecutive years and 1.5 times that of third-place mainland China</b>。</p><p>That is to say, Japan, which usually focuses on aging and economic recession at home, is merely \"a narrow Japan\", that is, Japan itself, another part of Japan-\"overseas Japan\" is often easily overlooked. In fact, with the saturation of Japan's domestic consumption and market under the aging,<b>As early as the late 1970s, the Japanese government has continuously promoted the internationalization of Japanese yen and financial opening, guiding Japanese enterprises and funds to overseas, which is a larger market, to make up for the shortage of domestic capital return</b>：</p><p>According to the report \"Secrets and Enlightenment of Japanese Corporate Longevity\" published by the Bank of Korea in 2008, among 5,586 companies with a history of more than 200 years in the world, 3,146 have Japanese shares. These high-quality companies, which contribute huge revenues to Japan every year, such as SoftBank of Japan, which is a shareholder of more than 600 companies around the world, or<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The largest shareholder; Japanese local enterprises are also going global on a large scale, investing and building factories overseas, and expanding overseas income. For example, Uniqlo, whose overseas income exceeded that of local enterprises for the first time in 2018;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota Motor</a>In 2019, sales in China surpassed domestic sales for the first time.</p><p>On the basis of global competition, the competitiveness and key technology research and development capabilities of Japanese enterprises have always been at the leading level in the world. For example, among the top 500 enterprises in the world, Japan ranks 2nd to 3rd all the year round; In terms of scientific research, the number of Nobel Prize winners is the sixth in the world, and scientists win prizes almost every year. In New Materials, lithography, Precision Machine Tools, CNC<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>It also maintained its global leading competitiveness in many key technological fields.</p><p>Secondly,<b>Domestic Society and Consumption Structure in Japan</b>In terms of,<b>Since the downward pressure of overall domestic demand is increasing under the aging, the need to increase the consumption rate of the whole society is becoming more and more urgent through social structure reform</b>: Due to the effect of decreasing marginal consumption propensity, the same 1 yuan money allocated to the poor can drive much more consumption than that of the rich. Therefore, the most critical factor to increase the consumption rate of the whole society is whether the polarization between the rich and the poor can be narrowed and the number of the middle class can be expanded through income distribution reform.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d5dbeebc0bc4a41298be5e3dd52b697\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fact, since the 1970s, Japan has continuously implemented the income distribution reform represented by the \"income doubling plan\", the polarization between rich and poor in the whole society has decreased significantly. In terms of Gini coefficient, although the Gini coefficient of Japanese national direct income is still expanding (from 0.5 in 2000 to 0.57 in 2014), after the government's \"redistribution\", the Gini coefficient of Japanese society has dropped significantly to 0.32.<b>According to the 2019 Joint Report, the wealth gap in Japan is the lowest in Asia and the highest in the world (11th)</b>。</p><p>Corresponding to the promotion of income distribution plans such as income doubling, since 1970s, the consumption rate of the whole society in Japan has continued to rise as a whole, which has effectively hedged the downward pressure of aging on domestic demand, and is the key factor for Japan to cross the \"middle income trap\". Especially after the Japanese economic bubble burst in the 1990s, a large number of consumer goods companies that adapted to new trend changes, including Uniqlo and Kobayashi Pharmaceuticals, stood out and became the \"tenfold stocks\" of the Japanese stock market (we will analyze it in detail later).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6928bb57144750b196c89f043757fbc8\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In short, after the population transition to the fourth stage of aging and low birth, although the Japanese mainland in the narrow sense measured by GDP may have \"lost thirty years\", the Japanese government<b>Yen internationalization, income distribution</b>Vigorous reforms in other areas,<b>Japanese enterprises and people have \"not lost thirty years\"</b>On the contrary, in a sense, it has been promoted, which is undoubtedly worth our full reference.</p><p>As far as our country is concerned, the demographic transition from Stage III to Stage IV in the next 5-10 years will certainly pose unprecedented challenges, but it should also be noted that our country has planned adequate policy responses,<b>Some key measures to determine whether high-quality development can be achieved under aging have also been included in the highest-standard policy documents such as the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Outline of Long-Term Goals for 2035</b>For example: implementing a higher level of opening up to the outside world, \"the belt and road initiative\", and promoting the internationalization of RMB; We will strengthen the adjustment and accuracy of taxation, social security and transfer payments, give full play to the third distribution role of charity, and improve the distribution pattern of income and wealth.</p><p>Of course, the so-called \"one deployment, nine implementations\", to what extent the policy can be implemented and to what extent it can hedge the negative impact brought by the aging population remains to be seen, but at least in the next 5-10 years, the direction of China's economic development towards high-quality is certain.</p><p>On this basis, from the policy point of view, the determining factor of interest rate in the medium and long term is the return on net assets of enterprises. With the aging of the population and the deepening degree of low birth, the return on net assets of domestic local enterprises has declined,<b>It is expected that monetary policy will remain relatively loose in the medium and long term</b>So that the interest rate matches the enterprise's return on net assets. At the same time, the mismatch between fiscal revenue and expenditure caused by the increasing burden of pension will also limit the fiscal policy space in the future. Therefore, monetary policy will increasingly become the main means for government to regulate the economy.</p><p>Therefore, with the improvement of economic quality and long-term reasonable and sufficient liquidity,<b>We are still optimistic about the medium and long-term allocation logic of the domestic capital market</b>At the same time, in the next five years, under the great changes in China's population and social structure, at least the capital market<b>New structural opportunities</b>Will keep popping up. So how can we grasp the investment opportunities under this \"demographic transition\"?</p><p><b>4. Will the systemic risks of real estate be eventually exposed? - -Lessons from the Success or Failure of Japan's Real Estate Regulation</b></p><p>Before explaining the specific investment opportunities of the capital market, we should first solve the biggest potential risk of the capital market under the \"demographic transition\": the disappearance of \"demographic dividend\" makes the population, a long-term key factor supporting real estate, begin to weaken rapidly. Under the transition of population to aging and low birth, the medium-and long-term cycle of real estate will decline or be inevitable to some extent. However, does the downward trend of the real estate cycle inevitably bring systemic risks?</p><p>Judging from the existing international experience, it seems that this possibility cannot be ruled out: after the Plaza Accord, the yen appreciated sharply, and Japanese real estate began to bubble. Then, after Japan's aging and low birth rate deepened and the economy grew at a low speed in 1990s, the real estate bubble burst, and the plunge of house prices continued to lead to debt default and even the bankruptcy of small and medium-sized banks. In 1997, the bankruptcy of Japan's Changxin Bank triggered the bankruptcy tide of small and medium-sized banks. This credit collapse triggered a sharp contraction of risk appetite, which in turn triggered the Nikkei index of Japanese stock market to plummet by 66.64% from 1990 to 1998. The collapse of the capital market further aggravated the shrinkage of residents' wealth and the difficulties of the real economy, forming a negative cycle. The systemic risk represented by this negative cycle is the focus issue that the market is most worried about under the aging transformation. However, is the systemic risk of this aging Japan really inevitable?</p><p><b>In fact, aging is not the main cause of bursting Japan's real estate bubble and then inducing systemic risks, but the inappropriate rhythm of Japanese authorities' monetary policy-\"loosening first and then tightening\", which led to the rapid rise and fall of Japanese housing prices and the instability of the financial system.</b>In 1986, the Bank of Japan adopted an excessively loose monetary policy against the background of the appreciation of the yen. For example, in 1986, the central bank greatly lowered the benchmark interest rate from 5% to 2.5%, and while implementing the loose monetary policy, it lacked strong supervision over speculative capital at that time. As a collateral to incite a lot of credit, the price of land is naturally inflated by speculative capital operation. This loose policy and regulatory environment brought about a bubble in Japanese real estate prices. In 1986-89, the Tokyo house price index increased from 103 to 213, and the price of Tokyo and other big cities more than doubled in three years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3ed38d6126e48d012bb6845bdc0e8dc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Subsequently, the high real estate bubble forced the central bank to adopt a rapid rate hike. From 1989 to 1991, the central bank continued its rate hike, and the benchmark interest rate rapidly increased from 2.5% to 6.25%; In addition, in 1991, the Japanese government introduced the land price tax and strengthened the special land tenure tax to control the excessive rise of land prices. Eventually leads to the bursting of the housing bubble, in exchange for the short-term rapid decline of housing prices, increasing the exposure to systemic risks. Around 1996, Japan's house prices and land prices gradually stopped falling and stabilized, but the debts of enterprises and individuals formed during the development of the bubble did not die with the bursting, resulting in enterprises and individuals who relied on borrowing for irrational investment at that time still bear a heavy debt burden.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a8361e809b69d0e402cf76858ac7b1b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We believe that under the background of the appreciation of the yen, the Bank of Japan first encouraged the real estate bubble with a rapid and loose monetary policy, and then took the initiative to burst the soaring bubble with a rapid rate hike. This kind of \"loosening and then tightening\" of real estate regulation superimposed the aging of the population, the deepening of low birth and the economic downturn, which created the risk exposure of the short-term bursting of the housing price bubble. At the same time, the rapid decline of implied income of banks and the huge loans collateralized by real estate made the Japanese banking industry burden with heavy non-performing claims. In 1995, the total non-performing assets in Japan amounted to 40 trillion yen, and in December 1997, the problem claims reached 70 trillion yen, which seriously affected the stability and security of the financial system. Superimposed 1997<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asia Finance</a>Under the transmission of the crisis and the bursting of the real estate bubble to the financial system, the bankruptcy of Naganobu Bank, the ninth largest bank in the world in Japan, triggered the bankruptcy tide of the banking industry.</p><p>Through the success or failure of Japan's real estate regulation, we can see that,<b>The key to whether the downward trend of real estate under the \"population aging transformation\" leads to systemic risks lies in whether the \"smooth\" transition of housing price trend can be realized in the two stages before and after the \"population transformation\"</b>。</p><p>However, since myopia is an inherent flaw in human nature,<b>People tend to be accustomed to extrapolate short-term trends infinitely linearly</b>The reason why Japan adopted the inappropriate policy of \"loosening the front and tightening the back\" in the process of aging transformation is that in the late 1980s, when Japan was still in the third stage of population transformation, Japan's international competitiveness and status were at the historical peak at this time, and Japanese policymakers were easily overconfident-they believed that Japan's economy could maintain high-speed growth and digest the soaring house prices in the future, and they could not see the huge downward pressure on the economy when the subsequent aging peak arrived; After the long-term turning point of aging and real estate is established, at this time, it is urgent to loosen policies to hedge against the downward pressure of housing prices. However, due to the inertia of thinking in the bubble period, the Japanese government is worried that after the policy is relaxed, there will be a national surge again, and related easing and rescue measures are always \"half a beat slow\", thus constantly missing the \"window period\" to prevent the spread of risks.</p><p>Fortunately, at present, China's population structure is in the third stage, and housing prices still have a strong upward endogenous power.<b>However, the policy is far-sighted, and the risk of real estate overheating has been prevented in all directions in advance</b>: The tone of \"housing for living, not speculation\" has been written into the \"Report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China\" since 2017. In the past three years, the central and local governments have also taken stricter control measures for real estate speculation, which to some extent has curbed the crazy real estate bubble in Japan in 1990s and reserved sufficient policy space.</p><p>This means that even in the next 5-10 years, China's population transformation will enter the fourth stage of \"aging and low birth\", and even in the future, when real estate is facing greater downward pressure,<b>Sufficient policy space and the \"bubble\" of housing prices that are not out of control also make it possible to implement the policy of \"tightening before and loosening after\" and promote the \"smooth transition\" of China's real estate</b>。 Therefore, in the foreseeable future, there is no need to worry too much about the possibility of systemic risks due to the aging of the population and the downward trend of the real estate cycle.</p><p><b>5. Under the \"demographic transformation\", why are we cautious about the thematic opportunity of \"encouraging fertility\"?</b></p><p>Under the increasing pressure of China's \"population transformation\" to low birth and aging in the next 5-10 years, since the end of last year, the voices of all sectors of society for full liberalization and even encouragement of fertility have become stronger and stronger, which is also emphasized in the policy recommendations of the central bank's working paper. This possible directional change in policy is the easiest and most direct investment opportunity for investors. Therefore, after the release of the central bank's working paper, there was also a wave of hype on the theme of \"encouraging fertility\" and \"second child\" in the capital market, and some concept stocks related to maternal and infant products even doubled within ten trading days. However, under the \"demographic transformation\", can the policy of \"encouraging fertility\" really exceed expectations? If the policy is introduced, can it reverse the trend of \"low birth\"?</p><p>First of all, just<b>Policy Process</b>We believe that some experts and scholars in the current society, seeing the decline in fertility rate, demand \"immediate and urgent liberalization of fertility\", and even advocate \"family planning\" and \"the back team to the front team\"-the idea of \"encouraging fertility\" by adopting compulsory methods such as taxing single and one-child families in disguise may be one-sided, which neglects the more important things than the total population<b>Demographic structure.</b></p><p>As the essence of \"demographic dividend\" in the previous article is analyzed in \"population lending\": before the age of 18, the population is a \"burden\" that needs to constantly consume social resources for investment and support, and only after nearly 20 years of long investment can it be converted into high-quality assets that generate rich social benefits. In the next 5-10 years, the largest \"post-60s baby boom\" in China's history will enter the retirement period, and on the basis of the sustained and rapid growth of retirees over 60-65 years old every year,<b>If the \"comprehensive fertility encouragement policy\" really comes into effect as scheduled, and there are a large number of new \"baby boomers\" in the society that urgently need continuous investment, the government's financial burden and the overall social support burden will face the \"two-way impact of the superposition of baby boom and retirement tide\" in 10 years or even longer</b>This impact on the financial pressure of our government, high-quality economic development and residents' living standards cannot be underestimated.</p><p>More importantly, due to the unbalanced regional development in China, the responses of populations in different regions and social classes to the policy of encouraging fertility are significantly different: after the full liberalization of the two-child policy in 2016, the three places with the highest birth rates are Shandong (17.54‰), Tibet (16‰) and Xinjiang (15.88‰), while among the six provinces with negative growth, three are municipalities directly under the Central Government (Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai), and the other three are all from Northeast China.</p><p>Which means,<b>Areas where the policy most wants to encourage childbirth: the most aging areas (the three eastern provinces) and the provinces with large employment (municipalities directly under the Central Government, etc.) have not responded well to the policy. On the contrary, the population of the \"old, young, border and poor\" areas has the best response to the policy of encouraging childbirth. However, the large increase in the number of new births in these areas will add new burdens to the consolidation of hard-won achievements of \"poverty alleviation\" and social stability maintenance</b>。 This structural difference, which is contrary to the original intention of liberalizing the fertility policy, is expected to become more obvious in the follow-up process of comprehensive liberalization and encouragement policies.</p><p>In fact, the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Outline of Long-term Goals for 2035 have set the tone of China's fertility policy more steadily and prudently: promoting the realization of moderate fertility level, optimizing fertility policy, and promoting long-term balanced development of the population.<b>We expect that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, policies to encourage childbirth, such as liberalization of \"three children\", full liberalization of childbirth and even incentives for childbirth, may be steadily promoted in a step-by-step and in line with national conditions</b>This means that the rhythm of policy landing is different from the \"radical mode\" of \"immediate and urgent full liberalization\" expected by hot funds in the current capital market.</p><p>Secondly, as far as the effect of the policy is concerned, compared with the view that some public opinions attribute the main responsibility of the current \"low birth rate\" to the family planning policy, and believe that after the policy changes its direction, the fertility rate will rise significantly, we believe that, as stated in the central bank's working paper,<b>Low birth and aging are the inevitable products of a country's modernization in a sense</b>Since it is an inevitable trend, it does not depend on the subjective intention of policy makers:</p><p><b>Looking at the effects of policies to encourage fertility in different countries under different cultures and systems around the world, we can find that once a country's industrialization and urbanization reach a certain height, no matter what intensity or form of policies to encourage fertility, it is difficult to change the downward trend of fertility rate in the long run</b>。</p><p>From Chart 7, the comparison table of fertility rates before and after the implementation of policies to encourage fertility in various countries around the world (the table includes: East Asian culture represents Japan and South Korea, typical representative countries of Western civilization, France and Germany, Orthodox civilization represents Russia, and Iran, a representative country of Islamic civilization), it can be found that when a country's total fertility rate (TFR) drops below the generational replacement level of 2.1, countries vigorously take measures to encourage fertility: for example, Russia provides hundreds of thousands of rubles in subsidies for Russian families who give birth to a second or more children by setting up a \"Mother's Fund\". In the first ten years of the fund's establishment alone, the total financial subsidies have exceeded 1.5 trillion rubles; If you have a child in Japan, you can directly receive a maternity benefit of more than 400,000 yen; France's policy of encouraging childbearing has been implemented for more than 60 years, and the annual related fiscal expenditure has reached 83 billion euros.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f757746bb2b8259f32a0839ccf48bb2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"581\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although the strength and determination of the above-mentioned countries to encourage fertility are not insignificant, and some have even exhausted all the possibilities of the policy, the actual results are \"unsatisfactory\":</p><p>First, the total fertility rate (TFR) has not reached the policy benchmark target of generational replacement level of 2.1 (the highest is no more than 1.85) in all countries after vigorously implementing the promotion of fertility;</p><p>Second, countries of different cultures have significantly different levels of response to policies to encourage fertility,<b>East Asian culture are least responsive to policies that encourage fertility</b>In Japan, South Korea and Singapore, the fertility rate remained low or declined after the implementation of the policy of strongly encouraging fertility;</p><p>Third, some European countries, such as Russia and France, have achieved certain results in overall fertility rates after implementing policies to encourage fertility.<b>But in fact, it contains two hidden dangers</b>：</p><p><ul><li><b>1) Ethnic minorities become the main body of fertility rate increase, and the fertility situation between the main ethnic group and ethnic minorities is further unbalanced</b>: The total fertility rate (TFR) of ethnic Russians is below 1.6, while that of Muslims (e.g. Chechnya) is above 3.2. This has resulted in a decrease in the Russian population by nearly 14 million over the past 20 years, while the number of Muslims in the territory has exceeded 16 percent, reaching 25 million; France, on the other hand, welcomed African populations, especially immigrants from historically French colonial countries, and granted maternity subsidies to blacks. The more births they had, the higher the subsidies, resulting in an overall increase in fertility rates.<b>In the above two countries, the proportion of ethnic minorities with huge cultural differences has increased rapidly, and the deep-seated social structural problems have intensified, which is one of the important reasons for the increase of social instability in the above two countries in recent years</b>。</p><p></li><li><b>2) The phenomenon of decreasing \"marginal utility\" of encouraging fertility policies, that is, when policies such as fertility subsidies are vigorously implemented, the fertility rate will increase rapidly within 1-2 years, and then when people start to get used to fertility subsidies, the fertility rate will enter the downward channel again, and they can only rely on greater subsidies to stimulate them, which will bring increasing burden to the finance</b>For example, after the implementation of the \"Mother Fund\" project in 2007, Russia's birth rate once increased by 30% in a short period of time. However, since 2017, Russia's fertility rate began to continue to decrease every year, from 1.62 in 2017 to 1.5 in 2019. It is increasingly difficult for the fertility rate to reach the policy target of 1.75 in 2024.</p><p></li></ul><b>Fourthly, it is noteworthy that even the culture and religion that most emphasizes fertility in the Chinese impression: Iran, the representative of Muslim civilization, has experienced a rapid decline in fertility after industrialization and urbanization</b>(The number of births per woman in Iran dropped from 7 in the 1960s to 1.8 in 2010). Moreover, after Iran completely abolished family planning in 2012, Iran still adopted policies such as spending more than 190 billion riyals every year to encourage childbirth, and strictly prohibiting all sterilization surgeries to encourage childbirth despite the strong sanctions from Europe and the United States and the very difficult economy. However, in the past ten years since the implementation of the policy, Iran's fertility rate has only slightly rebounded to the level of barely replacing generations, and it is no longer the tradition of ultra-high fertility rate in that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0583b9424a7e9e252e6de4b206c9c7e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>There are profound reasons behind the poor effectiveness of the policies to encourage fertility in the above-mentioned countries and the inability to change the downward trend of fertility rate:<b>The reason for the decline in fertility rate is not policy, but modernization, especially industrialization and urbanization</b>：</p><p><b>On the one hand, the industrialized society has demanding requirements on the level of science and technology</b>Forcing residents to improve their children's education at all costs in order to adapt them to future needs. This makes the education level of modern society rapidly improve at the same time,<b>It greatly increases the cost of raising children for modern families and exacerbates the late marriage of the next generation of children, thereby weakening their fertility potential</b>。</p><p><b>On the other hand, compared with the self-sufficient life of farming civilization, urbanization greatly compresses the living space of residents</b>(From Figure 9, it can be seen that residential density has a decisive influence on fertility rate. In Western European countries, where more than half of the households live in apartment buildings, fertility disasters have occurred without exception, while in countries with only one-third of the proportion, it has significantly improved.) At the same time,<b>And greatly increase the living cost of residents</b>: The bills for housing, medical care, transportation and other expenses have brought endless pressure on the citizens' lives, forcing them to work more day and night. This has certainly provided sufficient impetus for economic development,<b>But such a pressing life leaves citizens with little time and energy to raise their children</b>。 In this case, the rapid decline of fertility rate is also inevitable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/827675adb1874618776c9d693fa9ba94\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Finally,<b>The progress of modern medicine and science and technology has greatly prolonged the life span of the modern society, but also brought about the aging of the population, and caused the unprecedented financial burden to the modern country</b>: Take China as an example. Before the founding of the People's Republic of China, during the long era of feudal farming, the average life expectancy in China was maintained below 40 years old for a long time. This is certainly a symbol of backward social development, but it kept the population structure youthful and vital enough; After the founding of the People's Republic of China, with industrialization and modernization, the average life expectancy has risen all the way to 75 years old today. This certainly reflects the huge improvement of the per capita living standard, but to some extent, it also means that the proportion of weak, powerless but long-term elderly people in the whole society is increasing, while the proportion of young people with the ability to work is decreasing. As mentioned earlier, this will bring great challenges to China's finance.</p><p>Since the essence of low birth and aging lies in the modernization of society, especially the two cornerstones of modernization-industrialization and urbanization. Modernization is the direction of national and social progress, and it is the general trend of history. It is unquestionable whether it enhances the comprehensive national strength of the country or improves the standard of living of individuals. As the saying goes, \"there is no way out from pause and regression\". Then, in turn, the trend of low birth and aging is difficult to change-the policy can only slow down the slope at best, but can't reverse the direction.<b>In the face of such a general trend, under the relaxation of trying to speculate on the policy, the investment direction of rapid recovery of fertility rate can only be a \"flash in the pan\" after all.</b>。</p><p>As an investor, since aging and low birth are historical necessities to some extent, it is better to embrace the investment opportunities bred by the \"turning era\" instead of fighting the general trend. With reference to that experience of Japan and other countries,<b>Compared with the fertility end, the other end of \"population transformation\": the investment opportunities bred by the changes of social structure and consumption trend under aging, or the \"assembly place\" of really long-term \"ten times bull stocks\"</b>。</p><p><b>VI. Under the \"population conversion\", where are the real \"ten times the stock\" investment opportunities in the capital market?</b></p><p><b>1. The most direct idea: pay attention to the increase of \"pure elderly demand\"</b></p><p>Under the aging, one of the most direct investment ideas is to pay attention to the sub-industries closely related to the lives of the elderly, such as old-age care, chronic disease medical care, funeral industry, etc. We still take the consumption of the elderly in Japan's aging society as a guide. In 2016, the number of elderly people over 65 years old in Japan exceeded 30 million, accounting for about 22% of the total population; Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare predicts that by 2025, Japan's postwar baby boomer generation will reach the super-advanced age of over 75 years old, and the number of elderly people over 65 years old is estimated to be 37 million, accounting for 30% of the total population. Under the concept of \"the elderly have something to depend on\", industries such as medical care and old-age residential services have been determined to become the growth points of Japan's economy after 2025. Among them,</p><p><ul><li>1) The market space of Japan's funeral industry is twice that of China. According to the comparative data of Sino-Japanese funeral industry disclosed by scholar Jiang Yuyu in \"Comparison of Japanese Funeral and Sino-Japanese Funeral\", since Japan entered deep aging, the number of deaths every year is about 1.3 million, and there are more than 6,000 funeral enterprises in China, with an annual turnover of about 160 billion yuan. However, the annual number of deaths in China is about 9 million, and the total number of funeral service institutions in China is 4,300. The market size of funeral industry is only 70 billion yuan, which is less than half of that of Japan under the same funeral culture.</p><p></li><li>2) The old-age care service industry will continue to flourish with the ageing of the population, and the Japanese government guides social investment in the nursing industry. Take Japan as an example. Deeply aging medical care has increased the government's financial burden. After 2004, Japan formulated important policies such as the Elderly Welfare Law, the Elderly Health Care Law and the Nursing Insurance Law to encourage social capital to participate in the nursing industry, and the elderly care industry developed rapidly. According to the data of Forward Research Institute, the market size of China's pension industry increased to 5.6 trillion yuan in 2018, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.9%; It is expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan by 2024, with an average annual growth rate of about 20%. We expect that in the process of China moving towards a deeply aging society, the growth rate of consumption demand for \"pure elderly people\" around medical care and personal care may increase significantly.</p><p></li></ul><b>It is worth noting that although the above-mentioned increase of \"pure elderly demand\" closely related to the lives of the elderly is a certain trend, from the perspective of the capital market, the relevant subdivision has never produced \"ten times shares\" in the past 20 years</b>。 Part of the reason may be due to the \"life wealth curve\" effect. The consumption and income of the elderly are the weakest among all ages in society, so it is not the best choice from an investment perspective. So where are the real investment opportunities of \"ten times bull stocks\" under the \"demographic transformation\"?</p><p><b>2. Under the \"demographic transformation\", the real \"ten times bull stocks\" and \"assembly place\": the change of consumption mentality of young and middle-aged people under aging</b></p><p>We have always emphasized that changes in consumer mentality should give a higher weight to consumer trends and investment opportunities,<b>The inherent influence of the aging of population structure on social consumption lies in the expected change of the whole society to the life cycle. Among them, as the group with the highest marginal consumption tendency, the change of consumption mentality and consumption habit of young and middle-aged people often dominates the change direction of consumption industry in a certain historical stage.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43df303e73e7222a54d6c3ef92baebc9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"674\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Take the subdivision track of \"ten times stocks\" in the consumer sector after the burst of the Japanese stock market bubble in 1995 as an example. Japan began to enter the social stage of \"low consumer desire\" in the mid-to-late 1990s. During the period of sluggish economic growth and population switching in Japan, \"ten times stocks\" in the consumer fields, such as cost-effective clothing represented by Uniqlo, health care products represented by ARATA and beauty cosmeceutical products, appeared.</p><p>We believe that the ten-fold stocks that appeared in the era of low-speed growth have obvious characteristics: in the period of economic growth shifting, the trend of aging + low birth rate is deepening, and after the era when all companies can grow comes to an end, the companies in the \"emerging subdivision track\" that conform to the consumption trend begin to show strong growth opportunities. The trend of social residents' rational consumption began to rise. From 1995 to 2020, the consumption winning stocks of \"crossing bulls and bears\" were concentrated in cost-effective clothing retail, leisure products, auto parts, cosmetics, functional health food and beverages and other sub-tracks.</p><p>With<b>Fast Retailing, which ranks first in range gains</b>For example, Fast Retailing Group is a Japanese holding company mainly engaged in the clothing business. Its UNIQLO division sells casual clothing under the brand name UNIQLO in Japanese domestic and overseas markets. As the number of new people is declining year by year and the Japanese market is saturated, the younger generation has put forward higher requirements for the quality and cost performance of products. Uniqlo's simple style and high-quality fabric research and development cater to the rational consumption concept of Japanese young people under their \"low desire\".</p><p>Another example,<b>ARATA, a leading retail supplier of cosmeceutical and health products</b>For example, it provides upstream and downstream supply chain services for fast-moving consumer goods for Japanese first-line enterprises, connects more than 1,200+ suppliers (Shiseido, Kobayashi Pharmaceutical, etc.) upstream to obtain goods, and massive goods and services reach 3,500+ downstream retailers (Matsumoto Kiyoshi,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00984\">AEON</a>etc.). ARATA is the core supplier of all leading drugstores in Japan, and its inherent logic is to meet the needs of young people in Japan for cosmetics and health care daily necessities.</p><p>From the above-mentioned review of Japan's \"ten times shares\",<b>Under the \"demographic transformation\", the real long-term investment opportunity of bull stocks may lie in: the change of consumption mentality of the whole society under the acceleration of aging-the anxiety of young and middle-aged people about the increase of life expectancy and early aging prevention.</b></p><p><b>1) Because they are worried about the decline in quality of life after old age, the awareness of buying insurance among young and middle-aged people is obviously enhanced:</b>According to the Japan Life Insurance Association, the insurance density in Japan was 7.7% in 2018, exceeding the world average of 5.4%, and the market share of premium income ranked third in the world. In 1990-2000, with the slow economic growth and the formation of an aging society in Japan, the development of Japanese insurance industry has gradually matured. With the improvement of products and the upgrading of services, China's insurance industry may also accelerate its development in the age of gradual aging. \"Growth Engine of China's Life Insurance Market in the Next Five Years: Product Protection Upgrade and Innovation\" released by McKinsey & Company pointed out that compared with the 5%-10% life insurance penetration rate in mature markets, the Chinese market was only about 3% in 2019. The penetration rate of insurance products will benefit from the deepening of the aging process and gradually increase.</p><p><b>2) Because they are afraid of getting old, young and middle-aged people do everything possible to delay aging and retain youth. Therefore, sub-industries such as pharmaceutical health care, medical aesthetics, cosmeceutics and health drinks continue to grow at a high rate.</b>In the past 20 years, the proportion of Japanese household spending on health care has increased significantly. In the healthcare consumption structure, the average proportion of medical services, medical supplies and appliances, drugs and healthcare products is 56.4%, 17.3%, 17.2% and 9.0% respectively.</p><p>For example, Japan<b>Kobayashi Pharmaceutical</b>Recently, it has been sought after by consumers. Kobayashi Pharmaceutical is an all-round enterprise committed to developing daily necessities, medicines, medical devices, daily necessities and food that can meet all the needs of consumers, and has launched a number of highly acclaimed cosmeceuticals. Popular products include: liquid band-aid, cream-type application, VC whitening freckle cream, heat dissipation sticker, etc.</p><p><b>In fact, this change in consumption mentality has also begun to be gradually reflected in related industries in China in recent years. For example, the main consumer of pharmaceutical and health care products in China is no longer the elderly over 60 years old, but a huge incremental market for young and middle-aged people.</b>In recent years, the post-90s \"health doctrine\" has quietly emerged. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">Alibaba Health</a>According to the \"2017 Health Consumption Report\", young people aged 18-29 account for more than 50% of the healthy consumer population. The post-90s and post-00s pay more attention to health and maintenance than the previous generation, and even break the boundaries of gender and age. 2018 Domestic Healthcare Product Leader<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300146\">By-Health</a>Targeting the young consumer groups who pursue \"beauty, fashion and health\", and vigorously promoting the \"rejuvenation\" of products, its e-commerce online channel revenue increased by 62.77% year-on-year in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da0de57e74212787492e566f08f01c25\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) The pet economy is booming because of worries about loneliness and lack of companionship in old age.</b>According to the data disclosed by Kailuo Insights, the pet market has reached 98 billion yuan since 2010, and the average annual growth rate of the industry scale by 2020 may remain 18%. However, the domestic pet ownership rate is only about 4%-5%, far less than the 38% pet ownership rate of Japanese families. The aging trend has enhanced the willingness of pets to actively consume the psychological care needs of families in the whole society, and the prosperity of related pet food and pet medical segments may further improve.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f1c27e1800f8a9c35e7b9458e7e5ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Under the \"demographic transformation\", the \"new generation of young people\" will be the \"leader\" of consumption trend</b></p><p>According to our research on generational consumption in Japan, the \"young generation\" is the main force leading the consumption trend in Japan during the \"economic downturn\". For example, in Japan's economic downturn in the 1990s, the next generation (children of postwar baby boomers) in childhood, due to the high expectations stimulated by high economic growth, formed a sharp psychological contrast with the cruel reality constituted by the post-work economic downturn and class solidification. This psychological contrast then shapes its \"low desire\" consumption habit of paying more attention to simplification and high cost performance. In the Japanese consumer society around 2000, the rise of a new generation of leading consumer goods enterprises represented by Uniqlo, Daiso and Muji,<b>It is the product of adapting to this change in consumption habits</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73e79e4e429cba788f382c27cbd07a99\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As far as China is concerned at present, the similar demographic structure and the increasing social background of China and Japan mean that the change of aging consumption expectation for the whole society is similar.<b>The post-95s-00s who inherit the \"generational wealth\" are the people with the most consumption potential, and the \"new consumption\" led by them is also the most obvious consumption subdivision among them.</b>The post-95s-00s in China were born in 1990s. In the era of rapid development of communication and information technology, the impact of multi-culture brought by globalization and informatization deeply affected their values and made them more dependent on them<b>Online Convenient Diversified Consumption</b>。 This change drives the<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">TikTok</a>The rapid development of online video social retail and interactive platforms such as Kuaishou and Bilibili; In terms of the concept of consumer culture, the background of China's rapid macroeconomic growth drives the new generation of people to have stronger national self-confidence and cultural self-confidence. Its strong cultural self-confidence also drives the \"<b>Trendy domestic products</b>\"The rise of; The growing single community of the younger generation has also given birth to an increasingly hot<b>\"Single economy\" and \"stay-at-home economy\".</b></p><p>From this perspective, whether from the review of ten times the shares of Japanese consumer banks or the enlightenment of generational consumption changes, it can be seen that under the background of the gradual acceleration of the aging society, the \"long-distance running champion\" of the stock market is still an enterprise that locks the groups with high marginal consumption tendency, and conforms to and accurately locks the changing consumption trends of young people in the \"new generation\".</p><p>Risk warning: the risk of economic stall under aging, the deterioration of geopolitical situation beyond expectations, the risk of bias in the measurement of population change scale in this paper, etc.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China starts demographic transition, who will be the \"ten-fold stock\" at this stage</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina starts demographic transition, who will be the \"ten-fold stock\" at this stage\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/71\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb163b204aa14697bd7477df15b8b6b1);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">李迅雷金融与投资 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-23 10:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Xu Chi, Zhang Wenyu</p><p><b>Recently, the central bank released the working paper \"Understanding and Countermeasures on China's Population Transformation\", and the results of the seventh census were announced soon, which triggered heated discussions on topics such as \"demographic dividend\" and \"fertility rate\" in all walks of life, and aroused widespread concern in the capital market. The concept stocks related to \"liberalizing fertility\" have also soared recently. In fact, since the end of last year, various places announced the 2020<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABCD\">newly born</a>Since the news of the cliff-like decline in the children's population, the voices on population issues such as \"low birth rate\" and \"aging\" and the demand for \"immediate and urgent comprehensive liberalization of the fertility policy\" have also been \"endless\".</b></p><p><b>What is the essence of demographic dividend? In the next five years, under the \"critical point\" of three waves of baby boom, what kind of \"turning point\" will China's population situation face? Under the \"demographic transformation\", the downward trend of economic aggregate, especially real estate, seems inevitable, but does this necessarily mean the downward trend of economic quality and the exposure of systemic risks? From global experience, is fertility policy really key to determining birth rates? Can the policy of fully liberalizing and encouraging fertility \"cure the disease with medicine\"? Under the \"demographic transformation\", how will the capital market perform, and how to grasp the investment opportunity of \"ten times shares\" bred by the tide of social structural change?</b></p><p><b>This paper will focus on the above-mentioned focus problems for detailed deduction.</b></p><p><b>Main conclusions</b></p><p>1) The essence of the demographic dividend is \"demographic borrowing\" – between the ages of 18-65, the population is a social dividend, and after 65, the population is a social burden. This attribute determines that the greater the magnitude of the demographic dividend, the greater the demographic borrowing it extends-that is, the burden on the population after age 65.</p><p>2) In the next 5-10 years, with the first batch of founding \"baby boomers\" entering the \"death period\", the second batch of post-60s \"baby boomers\" entering the \"retirement tide\" and becoming people in need of financial support, and the third batch of post-80s \"baby boomers\" losing their \"golden childbearing age\". We believe that China's \"population transformation\" may move to the next turning point, that is, the fourth stage of \"accelerating aging and low birth\", which will have a profound impact on the economy and capital market.</p><p>3) Re-recognition of Japan's \"lost thirty years\", we find that if the policy is properly responded to, for example: promoting enterprises to go overseas through currency internationalization to improve the return on capital; Through the reform of income distribution, narrowing the polarization between the rich and the poor and increasing the consumption rate of the whole society to hedge against the shortage of domestic demand under the aging, the decline of economic aggregate does not necessarily mean the decline of economic quality. On this basis, we are still optimistic about the structural opportunities in the domestic capital market in the medium and long term.</p><p>4) Through the study of the success or failure of Japan's real estate regulation and control, the key to whether the downward trend of real estate under the aging of population leads to systemic risks lies in whether it can realize the \"smooth\" transition of housing price trend by implementing the policy of \"tightening before and loosening after\" in the two stages before and after the \"population transformation\". Since 2017, China's strict policy tone of \"housing for living, not speculation\" and sufficient policy space reserved, in the foreseeable future, there is no need to worry too much about the possibility of systemic risks caused by the downward trend of real estate under the aging population.</p><p>5) On the basis of the tremendous financial pressure of aging itself in the next five years. Since infants and young children themselves also require huge social resource investment and different regions have very different degrees of response to fertility policies, we believe that the policy of liberalizing and encouraging fertility is more likely to adopt a gradual and steady approach in line with national conditions, so as to reduce the burden on the consolidation of poverty alleviation achievements and maintaining stability caused by the \"two-way impact\" of \"fertility and retirement\" and the structural imbalance in fertility rates among regions.</p><p>6) The root cause of low birth and aging is not policy, but the inevitable product of a country's modernization-industrialization has raised the cost of raising children and the age of marriage and childbearing for modern families, while urbanization has compressed residents' living space and increased living cost and pressure. This is the reason why the implementation of policies to encourage fertility in different cultures and systems around the world is not satisfactory. The only few countries that have achieved phased results, such as Russia and France, have also aggravated the structural imbalance of fertility among ethnic groups in China, and the marginal effectiveness of policies has decreased, resulting in increasingly unbearable financial burdens.</p><p>Therefore, even if domestic policies to encourage fertility land, I'm afraid it will be difficult to change the general trend of downward fertility rate. Therefore, we are cautious about the thematic investment opportunities of \"liberalizing fertility\" that are hot in the current market.</p><p>7) Taking Japan as a lesson, the real medium-and long-term investment opportunity of \"demographic transformation\" may be at the \"aging end\": in the next 5-10 years, with the further intensification of domestic aging,<b>Related industries with increasing \"pure demand for the elderly\", such as: aged care, funeral and other market space or rapid increase;</b></p><p><b>However, the real investment opportunity of \"ten times bull stocks\" may be: under the acceleration of aging, the change of consumption mentality of the whole society-the improvement of life expectancy and the mentality of young and middle-aged people to prevent aging in advance,</b>For example, because of worry about living expenses in old age, increase<b>Insurance</b>Aspect expenditure; Because we want to delay aging, we pay more attention to health expenditure:<b>Medicines and health care, medical aesthetics, cosmeceuticals, health drinks</b>Will be more and more favored; For fear of lack of companionship,<b>Pet economy</b>Prevailing.</p><p>In addition,<b>As the \"wealth inheritance from generation to generation\" and the \"new generation consumption\" of the post-95-00 young people with the strongest marginal consumption tendency, such as: trendy domestic products and Internet consumption</b>It will also be an important consumption investment opportunity under the \"demographic transition\".</p><p><b>1. \"Honecker hypothesis\"-the essence of \"demographic dividend\" is \"demographic borrowing\"</b></p><p>On April 14, 2021, the central bank released the working paper \"Understanding and Countermeasures on China's Demographic Transition\". Among them, the most interesting new point of view in this working paper is \"demographic transformation\", that is, \"the benefits of demographic dividend have to be repaid after all, and the more dividends you get before, the heavier the burden to be repaid afterwards\". From an academic point of view, this sharp point of view has in fact a deep theoretical context. The idea of \"demographic transition\" or \"demographic borrowing\" is elaborated in the book \"Population Wave: How Demographic Change Shapes the Modern World\" by Paul Moran, a famous British demographer.</p><p>In the book, \"population borrowing\" is led by an interesting story: Honecker, the last leader of East Germany, after seeing the huge gap in average labor costs between West Germany and East Germany, raised the question that the backwardness of East Germany at that time was due to the artificial blockade of the West,<b>Assuming that East Germany is not hindered by its technological and capital links with the West, can East Germany take advantage of its relatively cheap and compliant high-quality labor force to enter the global market, and finally realize East Germany surpassing the West?</b></p><p>In fact, the \"Honecker hypothesis\" is the key to the \"development miracle\" of a series of developing countries, especially East Asian countries after World War II: through opening up to the outside world, introducing Western capital, making use of their own superior labor resources, and rapid urbanization and industrialization, the result often realizes the leap-forward development of their own economy and people's living standard in about a generation (30-40 years), such as the post-war economic miracle of Japan (1940-1980), the miracle of Brazil (1948-1979), the miracle of Han River in Korea (1953-1996), etc.</p><p>But,<b>From a longer perspective, after experiencing a period of \"demographic dividend\" with a generation of rapid growth, these countries often fall into a quagmire of longer-term economic slowdown or even stagnation accompanied by severe burdens of aging and low birth</b>For example, Japan and South Korea \"lost twenty years\" and \"Latin American trap\" after the 21st century, and in the end, they failed to surpass the West.</p><p><b>The reason why \"Honecker hypothesis\" failed to happen in practice is that it did not realize that the essence of \"demographic dividend\" is \"demographic borrowing\"</b>That is, before the age of 18, manpower is a social resource that needs to be continuously invested (corresponding to the \"I stage of demographic transition\" in the central bank's work report), and from the age of 18 to about 65, it is a high-quality asset that can generate rich social benefits (corresponding to the \"II stage of demographic transition\"). However, after the age of 64, the demographic dividend will inevitably become a burden on the population due to aging-at this time, people have lost most of their social benefits, but instead need long-term and continuous social assistance (corresponding to the \"III-IV stage of demographic transition\").</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea8c960e674c1afab007abf93d25d117\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>That's the subtlety of the demographic dividend, between the ages of 18-65, the population is the social dividend, and after 65, the population is the social burden. This attribute determines that the greater the magnitude of the demographic dividend, the greater the demographic borrowing it extends-that is, the burden on the population after age 65.</p><p><b>More importantly, the underlying hypothesis of \"Honecker hypothesis\": low labor cost advantage is essentially an abuse of demographic dividend, and abuse will more easily lead to unsustainability of human resources and development</b>For example, the rapid advancement of urbanization and industrialization will greatly increase residents' living costs such as housing prices, and at the same time, the long-term intentional maintenance of low labor costs will inevitably increase residents' living pressure and anxiety, and finally inevitably further weaken the reproductive ability of the population, resulting in irreversible damage to the sustainable utilization of human resources.</p><p><b>Second, China's \"demographic transformation\" in the next five years: the \"dusk\" of three waves of \"baby boom dividends\"</b></p><p>As far as China's own \"population transformation\" is concerned, if we say that the \"Lewis turning point\" when the labor-age population began to decrease around 2012 (from 2012 to now, China's labor-age population aged 16 to 60 has decreased by 30 million), it marks the formation of a turning point from labor surplus to shortage, that is, from the second stage to the third stage in the central bank's work report: the population size continues to grow but the growth rate slows down, and the economic growth rate turns from rising to falling but still keeps growing. Then, with the three waves of \"baby boom\" and \"dividend\" after the founding of the People's Republic of China in the next 5-10 years approaching the \"critical point\", China's \"population transformation\" may move to the next turning point:</p><p>Chart 2 details the three waves of baby boomers in China since the founding of the People's Republic of China. According to the birth peaks of these three waves of baby boomers, we can deduce China's \"demographic transformation\" in the next 5-10 years:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da516a8aae9e9ba50eac7e96685c13b8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>1) Considering that the average life expectancy of our population is 75 years,<b>Born in the first wave of the baby boom in the early days of the People's Republic of China (about 20 million births per year),</b>It is expected that it will gradually enter the \"end of the life cycle\" from 5 years later. From the perspective of life cycle, the expected death of the first wave of baby boomers will be from 2025 to 2029. Combined with the 10.035 million newborns in 2020 announced by the Ministry of Public Security, assuming that China's birth rate remains unchanged at this level, it is estimated that after 2025, China's population will decrease by about 10 million per year or net.</p><p>2) More urgently,<b>Starting in 2022, the main baby boom with the largest birth population in China's history (the \"baby boom\" from 1962) began to enter the concentrated retirement period</b>At the same time, a 2018 study by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences showed that the number of young people in China is continuously decreasing, with a net decrease of 30 million people in the next five years. The decline of the young population and the increase of the elderly population will undoubtedly greatly increase the financial burden of our country.</p><p>3) At the same time, as the \"echo\" of the post-60s baby boom, it is also the last \"baby boom\" in China: from the post-85s to the beginning of the 90s, the birth of the \"second child\" is the \"mainstay\" of maintaining the fertility rate of the whole society at present: in 2019, the second child accounted for 57% of the birth population, and the post-80s was the absolute main force among the second child.<b>In the next 5-10 years, these last \"baby boomers\" will also be over 35-40 years old, that is, they will gradually lose their \"golden childbearing age\"</b>At the same time, considering the continuous unilateral decline in fertility rate after 1991 and the rapid decline in the willingness to have children after the 90s. This means that even if the country vigorously liberalizes or even encourages childbearing, it is expected that it will be difficult to achieve the expected effect of the policy.</p><p>After the founding of the People's Republic of China in the next five years, the three \"baby boom dividends\" are gradually entering the \"dusk\". We believe that,<b>China's \"demographic transition\" may move towards the next inflection point, that is, from the third stage to the fourth stage</b>: The old-age dependency ratio is rising rapidly, aging and low birth are serious, and economic growth is further slowing down. As an investor, we need to pay close attention to the investment opportunities and risks contained in this social trend change.</p><p><b>3. \"Debate\" between economic quantity and quality under \"demographic transformation\": Re-cognition of Japan's \"lost thirty years\"</b></p><p>As far as the economy is concerned, in the long run, with the transition of China's population to the fourth stage (aging and low birth), the downward trend of economic aggregate indicators represented by GDP growth rate may be inevitable to some extent. But it should be noted that,<b>Quantity is not equal to quality, and the decline of economic aggregate under aging does not mean the inevitable decline of economic quality</b>It does not mean that the capital market loses its investment value. On the contrary, if appropriate policy measures are taken in the face of the challenge of aging, the economic structure may be further optimized, and the economic quality and national competitiveness may be improved in a new dimension.</p><p>Take Japan, the economy with the most serious aging and low birth rate in the world, as an example. It is generally believed that Japan has entered a long-term economic recession and stagnation since the bubble burst in 1990s. However, is that really the case if we jump outside the GDP framework?</p><p>First of all, from<b>Japanese Overseas Assets</b>According to the data of Japan's Ministry of Finance, by the end of 2019, Japan's overseas assets were USD 10 trillion, almost twice that of GDP, ranking fourth in the world, higher than the USD 7 trillion in mainland China;<b>Net assets after deducting liabilities are 3.4 trillion US dollars, ranking first in the world for 30 consecutive years and 1.5 times that of third-place mainland China</b>。</p><p>That is to say, Japan, which usually focuses on aging and economic recession at home, is merely \"a narrow Japan\", that is, Japan itself, another part of Japan-\"overseas Japan\" is often easily overlooked. In fact, with the saturation of Japan's domestic consumption and market under the aging,<b>As early as the late 1970s, the Japanese government has continuously promoted the internationalization of Japanese yen and financial opening, guiding Japanese enterprises and funds to overseas, which is a larger market, to make up for the shortage of domestic capital return</b>：</p><p>According to the report \"Secrets and Enlightenment of Japanese Corporate Longevity\" published by the Bank of Korea in 2008, among 5,586 companies with a history of more than 200 years in the world, 3,146 have Japanese shares. These high-quality companies, which contribute huge revenues to Japan every year, such as SoftBank of Japan, which is a shareholder of more than 600 companies around the world, or<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The largest shareholder; Japanese local enterprises are also going global on a large scale, investing and building factories overseas, and expanding overseas income. For example, Uniqlo, whose overseas income exceeded that of local enterprises for the first time in 2018;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota Motor</a>In 2019, sales in China surpassed domestic sales for the first time.</p><p>On the basis of global competition, the competitiveness and key technology research and development capabilities of Japanese enterprises have always been at the leading level in the world. For example, among the top 500 enterprises in the world, Japan ranks 2nd to 3rd all the year round; In terms of scientific research, the number of Nobel Prize winners is the sixth in the world, and scientists win prizes almost every year. In New Materials, lithography, Precision Machine Tools, CNC<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>It also maintained its global leading competitiveness in many key technological fields.</p><p>Secondly,<b>Domestic Society and Consumption Structure in Japan</b>In terms of,<b>Since the downward pressure of overall domestic demand is increasing under the aging, the need to increase the consumption rate of the whole society is becoming more and more urgent through social structure reform</b>: Due to the effect of decreasing marginal consumption propensity, the same 1 yuan money allocated to the poor can drive much more consumption than that of the rich. Therefore, the most critical factor to increase the consumption rate of the whole society is whether the polarization between the rich and the poor can be narrowed and the number of the middle class can be expanded through income distribution reform.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d5dbeebc0bc4a41298be5e3dd52b697\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fact, since the 1970s, Japan has continuously implemented the income distribution reform represented by the \"income doubling plan\", the polarization between rich and poor in the whole society has decreased significantly. In terms of Gini coefficient, although the Gini coefficient of Japanese national direct income is still expanding (from 0.5 in 2000 to 0.57 in 2014), after the government's \"redistribution\", the Gini coefficient of Japanese society has dropped significantly to 0.32.<b>According to the 2019 Joint Report, the wealth gap in Japan is the lowest in Asia and the highest in the world (11th)</b>。</p><p>Corresponding to the promotion of income distribution plans such as income doubling, since 1970s, the consumption rate of the whole society in Japan has continued to rise as a whole, which has effectively hedged the downward pressure of aging on domestic demand, and is the key factor for Japan to cross the \"middle income trap\". Especially after the Japanese economic bubble burst in the 1990s, a large number of consumer goods companies that adapted to new trend changes, including Uniqlo and Kobayashi Pharmaceuticals, stood out and became the \"tenfold stocks\" of the Japanese stock market (we will analyze it in detail later).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6928bb57144750b196c89f043757fbc8\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In short, after the population transition to the fourth stage of aging and low birth, although the Japanese mainland in the narrow sense measured by GDP may have \"lost thirty years\", the Japanese government<b>Yen internationalization, income distribution</b>Vigorous reforms in other areas,<b>Japanese enterprises and people have \"not lost thirty years\"</b>On the contrary, in a sense, it has been promoted, which is undoubtedly worth our full reference.</p><p>As far as our country is concerned, the demographic transition from Stage III to Stage IV in the next 5-10 years will certainly pose unprecedented challenges, but it should also be noted that our country has planned adequate policy responses,<b>Some key measures to determine whether high-quality development can be achieved under aging have also been included in the highest-standard policy documents such as the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Outline of Long-Term Goals for 2035</b>For example: implementing a higher level of opening up to the outside world, \"the belt and road initiative\", and promoting the internationalization of RMB; We will strengthen the adjustment and accuracy of taxation, social security and transfer payments, give full play to the third distribution role of charity, and improve the distribution pattern of income and wealth.</p><p>Of course, the so-called \"one deployment, nine implementations\", to what extent the policy can be implemented and to what extent it can hedge the negative impact brought by the aging population remains to be seen, but at least in the next 5-10 years, the direction of China's economic development towards high-quality is certain.</p><p>On this basis, from the policy point of view, the determining factor of interest rate in the medium and long term is the return on net assets of enterprises. With the aging of the population and the deepening degree of low birth, the return on net assets of domestic local enterprises has declined,<b>It is expected that monetary policy will remain relatively loose in the medium and long term</b>So that the interest rate matches the enterprise's return on net assets. At the same time, the mismatch between fiscal revenue and expenditure caused by the increasing burden of pension will also limit the fiscal policy space in the future. Therefore, monetary policy will increasingly become the main means for government to regulate the economy.</p><p>Therefore, with the improvement of economic quality and long-term reasonable and sufficient liquidity,<b>We are still optimistic about the medium and long-term allocation logic of the domestic capital market</b>At the same time, in the next five years, under the great changes in China's population and social structure, at least the capital market<b>New structural opportunities</b>Will keep popping up. So how can we grasp the investment opportunities under this \"demographic transition\"?</p><p><b>4. Will the systemic risks of real estate be eventually exposed? - -Lessons from the Success or Failure of Japan's Real Estate Regulation</b></p><p>Before explaining the specific investment opportunities of the capital market, we should first solve the biggest potential risk of the capital market under the \"demographic transition\": the disappearance of \"demographic dividend\" makes the population, a long-term key factor supporting real estate, begin to weaken rapidly. Under the transition of population to aging and low birth, the medium-and long-term cycle of real estate will decline or be inevitable to some extent. However, does the downward trend of the real estate cycle inevitably bring systemic risks?</p><p>Judging from the existing international experience, it seems that this possibility cannot be ruled out: after the Plaza Accord, the yen appreciated sharply, and Japanese real estate began to bubble. Then, after Japan's aging and low birth rate deepened and the economy grew at a low speed in 1990s, the real estate bubble burst, and the plunge of house prices continued to lead to debt default and even the bankruptcy of small and medium-sized banks. In 1997, the bankruptcy of Japan's Changxin Bank triggered the bankruptcy tide of small and medium-sized banks. This credit collapse triggered a sharp contraction of risk appetite, which in turn triggered the Nikkei index of Japanese stock market to plummet by 66.64% from 1990 to 1998. The collapse of the capital market further aggravated the shrinkage of residents' wealth and the difficulties of the real economy, forming a negative cycle. The systemic risk represented by this negative cycle is the focus issue that the market is most worried about under the aging transformation. However, is the systemic risk of this aging Japan really inevitable?</p><p><b>In fact, aging is not the main cause of bursting Japan's real estate bubble and then inducing systemic risks, but the inappropriate rhythm of Japanese authorities' monetary policy-\"loosening first and then tightening\", which led to the rapid rise and fall of Japanese housing prices and the instability of the financial system.</b>In 1986, the Bank of Japan adopted an excessively loose monetary policy against the background of the appreciation of the yen. For example, in 1986, the central bank greatly lowered the benchmark interest rate from 5% to 2.5%, and while implementing the loose monetary policy, it lacked strong supervision over speculative capital at that time. As a collateral to incite a lot of credit, the price of land is naturally inflated by speculative capital operation. This loose policy and regulatory environment brought about a bubble in Japanese real estate prices. In 1986-89, the Tokyo house price index increased from 103 to 213, and the price of Tokyo and other big cities more than doubled in three years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3ed38d6126e48d012bb6845bdc0e8dc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Subsequently, the high real estate bubble forced the central bank to adopt a rapid rate hike. From 1989 to 1991, the central bank continued its rate hike, and the benchmark interest rate rapidly increased from 2.5% to 6.25%; In addition, in 1991, the Japanese government introduced the land price tax and strengthened the special land tenure tax to control the excessive rise of land prices. Eventually leads to the bursting of the housing bubble, in exchange for the short-term rapid decline of housing prices, increasing the exposure to systemic risks. Around 1996, Japan's house prices and land prices gradually stopped falling and stabilized, but the debts of enterprises and individuals formed during the development of the bubble did not die with the bursting, resulting in enterprises and individuals who relied on borrowing for irrational investment at that time still bear a heavy debt burden.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a8361e809b69d0e402cf76858ac7b1b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We believe that under the background of the appreciation of the yen, the Bank of Japan first encouraged the real estate bubble with a rapid and loose monetary policy, and then took the initiative to burst the soaring bubble with a rapid rate hike. This kind of \"loosening and then tightening\" of real estate regulation superimposed the aging of the population, the deepening of low birth and the economic downturn, which created the risk exposure of the short-term bursting of the housing price bubble. At the same time, the rapid decline of implied income of banks and the huge loans collateralized by real estate made the Japanese banking industry burden with heavy non-performing claims. In 1995, the total non-performing assets in Japan amounted to 40 trillion yen, and in December 1997, the problem claims reached 70 trillion yen, which seriously affected the stability and security of the financial system. Superimposed 1997<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asia Finance</a>Under the transmission of the crisis and the bursting of the real estate bubble to the financial system, the bankruptcy of Naganobu Bank, the ninth largest bank in the world in Japan, triggered the bankruptcy tide of the banking industry.</p><p>Through the success or failure of Japan's real estate regulation, we can see that,<b>The key to whether the downward trend of real estate under the \"population aging transformation\" leads to systemic risks lies in whether the \"smooth\" transition of housing price trend can be realized in the two stages before and after the \"population transformation\"</b>。</p><p>However, since myopia is an inherent flaw in human nature,<b>People tend to be accustomed to extrapolate short-term trends infinitely linearly</b>The reason why Japan adopted the inappropriate policy of \"loosening the front and tightening the back\" in the process of aging transformation is that in the late 1980s, when Japan was still in the third stage of population transformation, Japan's international competitiveness and status were at the historical peak at this time, and Japanese policymakers were easily overconfident-they believed that Japan's economy could maintain high-speed growth and digest the soaring house prices in the future, and they could not see the huge downward pressure on the economy when the subsequent aging peak arrived; After the long-term turning point of aging and real estate is established, at this time, it is urgent to loosen policies to hedge against the downward pressure of housing prices. However, due to the inertia of thinking in the bubble period, the Japanese government is worried that after the policy is relaxed, there will be a national surge again, and related easing and rescue measures are always \"half a beat slow\", thus constantly missing the \"window period\" to prevent the spread of risks.</p><p>Fortunately, at present, China's population structure is in the third stage, and housing prices still have a strong upward endogenous power.<b>However, the policy is far-sighted, and the risk of real estate overheating has been prevented in all directions in advance</b>: The tone of \"housing for living, not speculation\" has been written into the \"Report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China\" since 2017. In the past three years, the central and local governments have also taken stricter control measures for real estate speculation, which to some extent has curbed the crazy real estate bubble in Japan in 1990s and reserved sufficient policy space.</p><p>This means that even in the next 5-10 years, China's population transformation will enter the fourth stage of \"aging and low birth\", and even in the future, when real estate is facing greater downward pressure,<b>Sufficient policy space and the \"bubble\" of housing prices that are not out of control also make it possible to implement the policy of \"tightening before and loosening after\" and promote the \"smooth transition\" of China's real estate</b>。 Therefore, in the foreseeable future, there is no need to worry too much about the possibility of systemic risks due to the aging of the population and the downward trend of the real estate cycle.</p><p><b>5. Under the \"demographic transformation\", why are we cautious about the thematic opportunity of \"encouraging fertility\"?</b></p><p>Under the increasing pressure of China's \"population transformation\" to low birth and aging in the next 5-10 years, since the end of last year, the voices of all sectors of society for full liberalization and even encouragement of fertility have become stronger and stronger, which is also emphasized in the policy recommendations of the central bank's working paper. This possible directional change in policy is the easiest and most direct investment opportunity for investors. Therefore, after the release of the central bank's working paper, there was also a wave of hype on the theme of \"encouraging fertility\" and \"second child\" in the capital market, and some concept stocks related to maternal and infant products even doubled within ten trading days. However, under the \"demographic transformation\", can the policy of \"encouraging fertility\" really exceed expectations? If the policy is introduced, can it reverse the trend of \"low birth\"?</p><p>First of all, just<b>Policy Process</b>We believe that some experts and scholars in the current society, seeing the decline in fertility rate, demand \"immediate and urgent liberalization of fertility\", and even advocate \"family planning\" and \"the back team to the front team\"-the idea of \"encouraging fertility\" by adopting compulsory methods such as taxing single and one-child families in disguise may be one-sided, which neglects the more important things than the total population<b>Demographic structure.</b></p><p>As the essence of \"demographic dividend\" in the previous article is analyzed in \"population lending\": before the age of 18, the population is a \"burden\" that needs to constantly consume social resources for investment and support, and only after nearly 20 years of long investment can it be converted into high-quality assets that generate rich social benefits. In the next 5-10 years, the largest \"post-60s baby boom\" in China's history will enter the retirement period, and on the basis of the sustained and rapid growth of retirees over 60-65 years old every year,<b>If the \"comprehensive fertility encouragement policy\" really comes into effect as scheduled, and there are a large number of new \"baby boomers\" in the society that urgently need continuous investment, the government's financial burden and the overall social support burden will face the \"two-way impact of the superposition of baby boom and retirement tide\" in 10 years or even longer</b>This impact on the financial pressure of our government, high-quality economic development and residents' living standards cannot be underestimated.</p><p>More importantly, due to the unbalanced regional development in China, the responses of populations in different regions and social classes to the policy of encouraging fertility are significantly different: after the full liberalization of the two-child policy in 2016, the three places with the highest birth rates are Shandong (17.54‰), Tibet (16‰) and Xinjiang (15.88‰), while among the six provinces with negative growth, three are municipalities directly under the Central Government (Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai), and the other three are all from Northeast China.</p><p>Which means,<b>Areas where the policy most wants to encourage childbirth: the most aging areas (the three eastern provinces) and the provinces with large employment (municipalities directly under the Central Government, etc.) have not responded well to the policy. On the contrary, the population of the \"old, young, border and poor\" areas has the best response to the policy of encouraging childbirth. However, the large increase in the number of new births in these areas will add new burdens to the consolidation of hard-won achievements of \"poverty alleviation\" and social stability maintenance</b>。 This structural difference, which is contrary to the original intention of liberalizing the fertility policy, is expected to become more obvious in the follow-up process of comprehensive liberalization and encouragement policies.</p><p>In fact, the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Outline of Long-term Goals for 2035 have set the tone of China's fertility policy more steadily and prudently: promoting the realization of moderate fertility level, optimizing fertility policy, and promoting long-term balanced development of the population.<b>We expect that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, policies to encourage childbirth, such as liberalization of \"three children\", full liberalization of childbirth and even incentives for childbirth, may be steadily promoted in a step-by-step and in line with national conditions</b>This means that the rhythm of policy landing is different from the \"radical mode\" of \"immediate and urgent full liberalization\" expected by hot funds in the current capital market.</p><p>Secondly, as far as the effect of the policy is concerned, compared with the view that some public opinions attribute the main responsibility of the current \"low birth rate\" to the family planning policy, and believe that after the policy changes its direction, the fertility rate will rise significantly, we believe that, as stated in the central bank's working paper,<b>Low birth and aging are the inevitable products of a country's modernization in a sense</b>Since it is an inevitable trend, it does not depend on the subjective intention of policy makers:</p><p><b>Looking at the effects of policies to encourage fertility in different countries under different cultures and systems around the world, we can find that once a country's industrialization and urbanization reach a certain height, no matter what intensity or form of policies to encourage fertility, it is difficult to change the downward trend of fertility rate in the long run</b>。</p><p>From Chart 7, the comparison table of fertility rates before and after the implementation of policies to encourage fertility in various countries around the world (the table includes: East Asian culture represents Japan and South Korea, typical representative countries of Western civilization, France and Germany, Orthodox civilization represents Russia, and Iran, a representative country of Islamic civilization), it can be found that when a country's total fertility rate (TFR) drops below the generational replacement level of 2.1, countries vigorously take measures to encourage fertility: for example, Russia provides hundreds of thousands of rubles in subsidies for Russian families who give birth to a second or more children by setting up a \"Mother's Fund\". In the first ten years of the fund's establishment alone, the total financial subsidies have exceeded 1.5 trillion rubles; If you have a child in Japan, you can directly receive a maternity benefit of more than 400,000 yen; France's policy of encouraging childbearing has been implemented for more than 60 years, and the annual related fiscal expenditure has reached 83 billion euros.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f757746bb2b8259f32a0839ccf48bb2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"581\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although the strength and determination of the above-mentioned countries to encourage fertility are not insignificant, and some have even exhausted all the possibilities of the policy, the actual results are \"unsatisfactory\":</p><p>First, the total fertility rate (TFR) has not reached the policy benchmark target of generational replacement level of 2.1 (the highest is no more than 1.85) in all countries after vigorously implementing the promotion of fertility;</p><p>Second, countries of different cultures have significantly different levels of response to policies to encourage fertility,<b>East Asian culture are least responsive to policies that encourage fertility</b>In Japan, South Korea and Singapore, the fertility rate remained low or declined after the implementation of the policy of strongly encouraging fertility;</p><p>Third, some European countries, such as Russia and France, have achieved certain results in overall fertility rates after implementing policies to encourage fertility.<b>But in fact, it contains two hidden dangers</b>：</p><p><ul><li><b>1) Ethnic minorities become the main body of fertility rate increase, and the fertility situation between the main ethnic group and ethnic minorities is further unbalanced</b>: The total fertility rate (TFR) of ethnic Russians is below 1.6, while that of Muslims (e.g. Chechnya) is above 3.2. This has resulted in a decrease in the Russian population by nearly 14 million over the past 20 years, while the number of Muslims in the territory has exceeded 16 percent, reaching 25 million; France, on the other hand, welcomed African populations, especially immigrants from historically French colonial countries, and granted maternity subsidies to blacks. The more births they had, the higher the subsidies, resulting in an overall increase in fertility rates.<b>In the above two countries, the proportion of ethnic minorities with huge cultural differences has increased rapidly, and the deep-seated social structural problems have intensified, which is one of the important reasons for the increase of social instability in the above two countries in recent years</b>。</p><p></li><li><b>2) The phenomenon of decreasing \"marginal utility\" of encouraging fertility policies, that is, when policies such as fertility subsidies are vigorously implemented, the fertility rate will increase rapidly within 1-2 years, and then when people start to get used to fertility subsidies, the fertility rate will enter the downward channel again, and they can only rely on greater subsidies to stimulate them, which will bring increasing burden to the finance</b>For example, after the implementation of the \"Mother Fund\" project in 2007, Russia's birth rate once increased by 30% in a short period of time. However, since 2017, Russia's fertility rate began to continue to decrease every year, from 1.62 in 2017 to 1.5 in 2019. It is increasingly difficult for the fertility rate to reach the policy target of 1.75 in 2024.</p><p></li></ul><b>Fourthly, it is noteworthy that even the culture and religion that most emphasizes fertility in the Chinese impression: Iran, the representative of Muslim civilization, has experienced a rapid decline in fertility after industrialization and urbanization</b>(The number of births per woman in Iran dropped from 7 in the 1960s to 1.8 in 2010). Moreover, after Iran completely abolished family planning in 2012, Iran still adopted policies such as spending more than 190 billion riyals every year to encourage childbirth, and strictly prohibiting all sterilization surgeries to encourage childbirth despite the strong sanctions from Europe and the United States and the very difficult economy. However, in the past ten years since the implementation of the policy, Iran's fertility rate has only slightly rebounded to the level of barely replacing generations, and it is no longer the tradition of ultra-high fertility rate in that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0583b9424a7e9e252e6de4b206c9c7e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>There are profound reasons behind the poor effectiveness of the policies to encourage fertility in the above-mentioned countries and the inability to change the downward trend of fertility rate:<b>The reason for the decline in fertility rate is not policy, but modernization, especially industrialization and urbanization</b>：</p><p><b>On the one hand, the industrialized society has demanding requirements on the level of science and technology</b>Forcing residents to improve their children's education at all costs in order to adapt them to future needs. This makes the education level of modern society rapidly improve at the same time,<b>It greatly increases the cost of raising children for modern families and exacerbates the late marriage of the next generation of children, thereby weakening their fertility potential</b>。</p><p><b>On the other hand, compared with the self-sufficient life of farming civilization, urbanization greatly compresses the living space of residents</b>(From Figure 9, it can be seen that residential density has a decisive influence on fertility rate. In Western European countries, where more than half of the households live in apartment buildings, fertility disasters have occurred without exception, while in countries with only one-third of the proportion, it has significantly improved.) At the same time,<b>And greatly increase the living cost of residents</b>: The bills for housing, medical care, transportation and other expenses have brought endless pressure on the citizens' lives, forcing them to work more day and night. This has certainly provided sufficient impetus for economic development,<b>But such a pressing life leaves citizens with little time and energy to raise their children</b>。 In this case, the rapid decline of fertility rate is also inevitable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/827675adb1874618776c9d693fa9ba94\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Finally,<b>The progress of modern medicine and science and technology has greatly prolonged the life span of the modern society, but also brought about the aging of the population, and caused the unprecedented financial burden to the modern country</b>: Take China as an example. Before the founding of the People's Republic of China, during the long era of feudal farming, the average life expectancy in China was maintained below 40 years old for a long time. This is certainly a symbol of backward social development, but it kept the population structure youthful and vital enough; After the founding of the People's Republic of China, with industrialization and modernization, the average life expectancy has risen all the way to 75 years old today. This certainly reflects the huge improvement of the per capita living standard, but to some extent, it also means that the proportion of weak, powerless but long-term elderly people in the whole society is increasing, while the proportion of young people with the ability to work is decreasing. As mentioned earlier, this will bring great challenges to China's finance.</p><p>Since the essence of low birth and aging lies in the modernization of society, especially the two cornerstones of modernization-industrialization and urbanization. Modernization is the direction of national and social progress, and it is the general trend of history. It is unquestionable whether it enhances the comprehensive national strength of the country or improves the standard of living of individuals. As the saying goes, \"there is no way out from pause and regression\". Then, in turn, the trend of low birth and aging is difficult to change-the policy can only slow down the slope at best, but can't reverse the direction.<b>In the face of such a general trend, under the relaxation of trying to speculate on the policy, the investment direction of rapid recovery of fertility rate can only be a \"flash in the pan\" after all.</b>。</p><p>As an investor, since aging and low birth are historical necessities to some extent, it is better to embrace the investment opportunities bred by the \"turning era\" instead of fighting the general trend. With reference to that experience of Japan and other countries,<b>Compared with the fertility end, the other end of \"population transformation\": the investment opportunities bred by the changes of social structure and consumption trend under aging, or the \"assembly place\" of really long-term \"ten times bull stocks\"</b>。</p><p><b>VI. Under the \"population conversion\", where are the real \"ten times the stock\" investment opportunities in the capital market?</b></p><p><b>1. The most direct idea: pay attention to the increase of \"pure elderly demand\"</b></p><p>Under the aging, one of the most direct investment ideas is to pay attention to the sub-industries closely related to the lives of the elderly, such as old-age care, chronic disease medical care, funeral industry, etc. We still take the consumption of the elderly in Japan's aging society as a guide. In 2016, the number of elderly people over 65 years old in Japan exceeded 30 million, accounting for about 22% of the total population; Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare predicts that by 2025, Japan's postwar baby boomer generation will reach the super-advanced age of over 75 years old, and the number of elderly people over 65 years old is estimated to be 37 million, accounting for 30% of the total population. Under the concept of \"the elderly have something to depend on\", industries such as medical care and old-age residential services have been determined to become the growth points of Japan's economy after 2025. Among them,</p><p><ul><li>1) The market space of Japan's funeral industry is twice that of China. According to the comparative data of Sino-Japanese funeral industry disclosed by scholar Jiang Yuyu in \"Comparison of Japanese Funeral and Sino-Japanese Funeral\", since Japan entered deep aging, the number of deaths every year is about 1.3 million, and there are more than 6,000 funeral enterprises in China, with an annual turnover of about 160 billion yuan. However, the annual number of deaths in China is about 9 million, and the total number of funeral service institutions in China is 4,300. The market size of funeral industry is only 70 billion yuan, which is less than half of that of Japan under the same funeral culture.</p><p></li><li>2) The old-age care service industry will continue to flourish with the ageing of the population, and the Japanese government guides social investment in the nursing industry. Take Japan as an example. Deeply aging medical care has increased the government's financial burden. After 2004, Japan formulated important policies such as the Elderly Welfare Law, the Elderly Health Care Law and the Nursing Insurance Law to encourage social capital to participate in the nursing industry, and the elderly care industry developed rapidly. According to the data of Forward Research Institute, the market size of China's pension industry increased to 5.6 trillion yuan in 2018, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.9%; It is expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan by 2024, with an average annual growth rate of about 20%. We expect that in the process of China moving towards a deeply aging society, the growth rate of consumption demand for \"pure elderly people\" around medical care and personal care may increase significantly.</p><p></li></ul><b>It is worth noting that although the above-mentioned increase of \"pure elderly demand\" closely related to the lives of the elderly is a certain trend, from the perspective of the capital market, the relevant subdivision has never produced \"ten times shares\" in the past 20 years</b>。 Part of the reason may be due to the \"life wealth curve\" effect. The consumption and income of the elderly are the weakest among all ages in society, so it is not the best choice from an investment perspective. So where are the real investment opportunities of \"ten times bull stocks\" under the \"demographic transformation\"?</p><p><b>2. Under the \"demographic transformation\", the real \"ten times bull stocks\" and \"assembly place\": the change of consumption mentality of young and middle-aged people under aging</b></p><p>We have always emphasized that changes in consumer mentality should give a higher weight to consumer trends and investment opportunities,<b>The inherent influence of the aging of population structure on social consumption lies in the expected change of the whole society to the life cycle. Among them, as the group with the highest marginal consumption tendency, the change of consumption mentality and consumption habit of young and middle-aged people often dominates the change direction of consumption industry in a certain historical stage.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43df303e73e7222a54d6c3ef92baebc9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"674\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Take the subdivision track of \"ten times stocks\" in the consumer sector after the burst of the Japanese stock market bubble in 1995 as an example. Japan began to enter the social stage of \"low consumer desire\" in the mid-to-late 1990s. During the period of sluggish economic growth and population switching in Japan, \"ten times stocks\" in the consumer fields, such as cost-effective clothing represented by Uniqlo, health care products represented by ARATA and beauty cosmeceutical products, appeared.</p><p>We believe that the ten-fold stocks that appeared in the era of low-speed growth have obvious characteristics: in the period of economic growth shifting, the trend of aging + low birth rate is deepening, and after the era when all companies can grow comes to an end, the companies in the \"emerging subdivision track\" that conform to the consumption trend begin to show strong growth opportunities. The trend of social residents' rational consumption began to rise. From 1995 to 2020, the consumption winning stocks of \"crossing bulls and bears\" were concentrated in cost-effective clothing retail, leisure products, auto parts, cosmetics, functional health food and beverages and other sub-tracks.</p><p>With<b>Fast Retailing, which ranks first in range gains</b>For example, Fast Retailing Group is a Japanese holding company mainly engaged in the clothing business. Its UNIQLO division sells casual clothing under the brand name UNIQLO in Japanese domestic and overseas markets. As the number of new people is declining year by year and the Japanese market is saturated, the younger generation has put forward higher requirements for the quality and cost performance of products. Uniqlo's simple style and high-quality fabric research and development cater to the rational consumption concept of Japanese young people under their \"low desire\".</p><p>Another example,<b>ARATA, a leading retail supplier of cosmeceutical and health products</b>For example, it provides upstream and downstream supply chain services for fast-moving consumer goods for Japanese first-line enterprises, connects more than 1,200+ suppliers (Shiseido, Kobayashi Pharmaceutical, etc.) upstream to obtain goods, and massive goods and services reach 3,500+ downstream retailers (Matsumoto Kiyoshi,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00984\">AEON</a>etc.). ARATA is the core supplier of all leading drugstores in Japan, and its inherent logic is to meet the needs of young people in Japan for cosmetics and health care daily necessities.</p><p>From the above-mentioned review of Japan's \"ten times shares\",<b>Under the \"demographic transformation\", the real long-term investment opportunity of bull stocks may lie in: the change of consumption mentality of the whole society under the acceleration of aging-the anxiety of young and middle-aged people about the increase of life expectancy and early aging prevention.</b></p><p><b>1) Because they are worried about the decline in quality of life after old age, the awareness of buying insurance among young and middle-aged people is obviously enhanced:</b>According to the Japan Life Insurance Association, the insurance density in Japan was 7.7% in 2018, exceeding the world average of 5.4%, and the market share of premium income ranked third in the world. In 1990-2000, with the slow economic growth and the formation of an aging society in Japan, the development of Japanese insurance industry has gradually matured. With the improvement of products and the upgrading of services, China's insurance industry may also accelerate its development in the age of gradual aging. \"Growth Engine of China's Life Insurance Market in the Next Five Years: Product Protection Upgrade and Innovation\" released by McKinsey & Company pointed out that compared with the 5%-10% life insurance penetration rate in mature markets, the Chinese market was only about 3% in 2019. The penetration rate of insurance products will benefit from the deepening of the aging process and gradually increase.</p><p><b>2) Because they are afraid of getting old, young and middle-aged people do everything possible to delay aging and retain youth. Therefore, sub-industries such as pharmaceutical health care, medical aesthetics, cosmeceutics and health drinks continue to grow at a high rate.</b>In the past 20 years, the proportion of Japanese household spending on health care has increased significantly. In the healthcare consumption structure, the average proportion of medical services, medical supplies and appliances, drugs and healthcare products is 56.4%, 17.3%, 17.2% and 9.0% respectively.</p><p>For example, Japan<b>Kobayashi Pharmaceutical</b>Recently, it has been sought after by consumers. Kobayashi Pharmaceutical is an all-round enterprise committed to developing daily necessities, medicines, medical devices, daily necessities and food that can meet all the needs of consumers, and has launched a number of highly acclaimed cosmeceuticals. Popular products include: liquid band-aid, cream-type application, VC whitening freckle cream, heat dissipation sticker, etc.</p><p><b>In fact, this change in consumption mentality has also begun to be gradually reflected in related industries in China in recent years. For example, the main consumer of pharmaceutical and health care products in China is no longer the elderly over 60 years old, but a huge incremental market for young and middle-aged people.</b>In recent years, the post-90s \"health doctrine\" has quietly emerged. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">Alibaba Health</a>According to the \"2017 Health Consumption Report\", young people aged 18-29 account for more than 50% of the healthy consumer population. The post-90s and post-00s pay more attention to health and maintenance than the previous generation, and even break the boundaries of gender and age. 2018 Domestic Healthcare Product Leader<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300146\">By-Health</a>Targeting the young consumer groups who pursue \"beauty, fashion and health\", and vigorously promoting the \"rejuvenation\" of products, its e-commerce online channel revenue increased by 62.77% year-on-year in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da0de57e74212787492e566f08f01c25\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) The pet economy is booming because of worries about loneliness and lack of companionship in old age.</b>According to the data disclosed by Kailuo Insights, the pet market has reached 98 billion yuan since 2010, and the average annual growth rate of the industry scale by 2020 may remain 18%. However, the domestic pet ownership rate is only about 4%-5%, far less than the 38% pet ownership rate of Japanese families. The aging trend has enhanced the willingness of pets to actively consume the psychological care needs of families in the whole society, and the prosperity of related pet food and pet medical segments may further improve.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f1c27e1800f8a9c35e7b9458e7e5ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Under the \"demographic transformation\", the \"new generation of young people\" will be the \"leader\" of consumption trend</b></p><p>According to our research on generational consumption in Japan, the \"young generation\" is the main force leading the consumption trend in Japan during the \"economic downturn\". For example, in Japan's economic downturn in the 1990s, the next generation (children of postwar baby boomers) in childhood, due to the high expectations stimulated by high economic growth, formed a sharp psychological contrast with the cruel reality constituted by the post-work economic downturn and class solidification. This psychological contrast then shapes its \"low desire\" consumption habit of paying more attention to simplification and high cost performance. In the Japanese consumer society around 2000, the rise of a new generation of leading consumer goods enterprises represented by Uniqlo, Daiso and Muji,<b>It is the product of adapting to this change in consumption habits</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73e79e4e429cba788f382c27cbd07a99\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As far as China is concerned at present, the similar demographic structure and the increasing social background of China and Japan mean that the change of aging consumption expectation for the whole society is similar.<b>The post-95s-00s who inherit the \"generational wealth\" are the people with the most consumption potential, and the \"new consumption\" led by them is also the most obvious consumption subdivision among them.</b>The post-95s-00s in China were born in 1990s. In the era of rapid development of communication and information technology, the impact of multi-culture brought by globalization and informatization deeply affected their values and made them more dependent on them<b>Online Convenient Diversified Consumption</b>。 This change drives the<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">TikTok</a>The rapid development of online video social retail and interactive platforms such as Kuaishou and Bilibili; In terms of the concept of consumer culture, the background of China's rapid macroeconomic growth drives the new generation of people to have stronger national self-confidence and cultural self-confidence. Its strong cultural self-confidence also drives the \"<b>Trendy domestic products</b>\"The rise of; The growing single community of the younger generation has also given birth to an increasingly hot<b>\"Single economy\" and \"stay-at-home economy\".</b></p><p>From this perspective, whether from the review of ten times the shares of Japanese consumer banks or the enlightenment of generational consumption changes, it can be seen that under the background of the gradual acceleration of the aging society, the \"long-distance running champion\" of the stock market is still an enterprise that locks the groups with high marginal consumption tendency, and conforms to and accurately locks the changing consumption trends of young people in the \"new generation\".</p><p>Risk warning: the risk of economic stall under aging, the deterioration of geopolitical situation beyond expectations, the risk of bias in the measurement of population change scale in this paper, etc.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af47ab6c10e46f0aea6733871f311696","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157007346","content_text":"徐驰、张文宇\n近期央行发布《关于我国人口转型的认识和应对之策》工作论文，以及第七次人口普查结果的公布在即，引发社会各界对于“人口红利”、“生育率”等话题的热议，并引起资本市场的广泛关注，有关“放开生育”的概念股近期亦大涨。事实上，自去年底各地公布2020年新生儿人口出现断崖式下跌消息以来，关于“少子化”“老龄化”等人口议题和要求“立即、刻不容缓的全面放开生育政策”的声音亦“不绝于耳”。\n人口红利的本质究竟是什么？未来5年，三波婴儿潮“临界点”下，我国人口形势又将面临怎样的“转折”？“人口转型”之下，经济总量，特别是地产的下行似乎难以避免，但这一定意味着经济质量的下行与系统性风险的暴露吗？从全球经验来看，生育政策是否真的是决定出生率的关键？全面放开与鼓励生育政策又是否可以“药到病除”？“人口转型”下，资本市场又将如何演绎，如何把握社会结构变革大潮下所孕育的“十倍股”的投资机会？\n本文将重点围绕上述几个焦点问题进行详细推演。\n主要结论\n1）人口红利的本质是“人口借贷”——在18-65岁之间，人口是社会红利，在65岁之后，人口是社会负担。这种属性决定了，人口红利的量级越大，其所延伸的人口借贷——即65岁后的人口负担将越大。\n2）未来5-10年，伴随第一批建国“婴儿潮”进入“寿终正寝期”，第二批60后“婴儿潮”步入“退休潮”下变为需要财政供养人员，第三批80后“婴儿潮”失去“黄金生育年龄”，我们认为，我国“人口转型”可能走向下一个拐点，即“老龄化与少子化加速”的第Ⅳ阶段，这将对经济与资本市场产生深远影响。\n3）对日本“失去三十年”的再认知，我们发现，如若政策应对得当，比如：通过货币国际化，推动企业走向海外，以提升资本回报率；通过收入分配改革，缩小贫富分化，并提升全社会消费率，以对冲老龄化下内需不足，则经济总量的下行并不一定意味着经济质量的下行。在此基础上，我们仍中长期看好国内资本市场结构性机会。\n4）通过对日本房地产调控的成败之鉴研究，人口老龄化下房地产的下行是否导致系统性风险的关键在于能否在“人口转型”的前后两个阶段，通过实施“前紧后松”的政策，以实现房价走势的“平滑化”过渡。2017年以来，我国严格的“房住不炒”政策基调以及预留的充足政策空间，就可以预期的未来而言，无需过于担忧人口老龄化下，房地产下行引发系统性风险的可能性。\n5）在未来5年老龄化本身对财政巨大压力的基础上。由于婴幼儿本身亦需要社会巨大资源投入以及不同区域对于生育政策的截然不同的反应程度，我们认为，放开及鼓励生育的政策更可能采取循序渐进符合国情的模式稳妥推进，以减少“生育与退休”对财政“双向冲击”及生育率区域间的结构性失衡对扶贫攻坚成果巩固和维稳等工作的负担。\n6）少子化与老龄化的根源并非政策，而是一个国家现代化的必然产物—工业化抬高了现代家庭抚养子女的成本与婚育年龄，城市化压缩了居民居住空间并增加了生活成本与压力。这是全球不同文化、体制下的各国鼓励生育政策实施效果均不尽如意的原因，仅有的少数取得阶段性成效的国家如：俄、法等，亦有加剧国内族裔间生育结构性失衡，政策效用边际递减，造成财政负担日益难以承担等问题。\n因此，即便国内鼓励生育类政策落地，恐怕也难以改变生育率下行的大趋势，故我们对于当前市场热炒的“放开生育”类主题性投资机会持谨慎态度。\n7）以日本为鉴，“人口转型”真正的中长期投资机会或在“老龄化端”：未来5-10年，伴随国内老龄化进一步加剧，围绕“纯老年需求”增加的相关行业，如：养老护理、殡葬等市场空间或快速增加；\n但真正的“十倍牛股”投资机会或在：老龄化加速下，全社会消费心态的变化——中青年人对预期寿命的提高及提前防老的心态，如：因为担心年老后生活开支，故增加保险方面支出；因为希望延缓衰老，故更加注重健康方面支出：药品保健、医美、药妆、健康饮料将越来越受青睐；因为担心缺少陪伴，故宠物经济盛行。\n另外，作为“世代财富传承”及边际消费倾向最强的95-00后年轻人的“新世代消费”，如：新潮国货、互联网消费等亦将是“人口转型”下重要的消费投资机遇。\n一、“昂纳克假设”——“人口红利”的本质是“人口借贷”\n2021年4月14日，央行发布了《关于我国人口转型的认识和应对之策》这一工作论文。其中，本次工作论文中最为引人关注的新观点——“人口转型”，即：“人口红利得到的好处终究是要偿还的，且以前得到的红利越多，事后需要偿还的负担越重”。从学术角度看，这一犀利的观点事实上是有着深刻的理论脉络的。“人口转型”或者说“人口借贷”这一观念在英国著名人口学学者保罗·莫兰的《人口浪潮：人口变迁如何塑造现代世界》书中被详细阐述。\n在书中，“人口借贷”由一个有趣的故事引出：东德最后一任领袖昂纳克在看到西德与东德平均用工成本巨大的差距之后，提出一个疑问，当时东德的落后是由于被西方人为封锁所致，假设东德与西方技术、资本的联系没有阻碍，那么东德利用相对廉价、顺从的高素质劳动力的优势进军全球市场，能否最终实现东德对西方的超越呢？\n事实上，“昂纳克假设”正是二战后一系列发展中国家，特别是东亚各国“发展奇迹”的关键所在：通过对外开放，引进西方资本，利用本国优势的劳动力资源，快速城市化与工业化，其结果往往在一代人左右的时间（30-40年），实现本国经济与人民生活水平的飞跃式发展，如：日本战后经济奇迹（1940-1980），巴西奇迹（1948-1979），韩国汉江奇迹（1953-1996）等。\n但是，从更长维度时间看，这些国家在经历了一代人快速增长的“人口红利”期后，往往伴随严重的老龄化与少子化负担，陷入更长期的经济增速放缓甚至是停滞的泥潭，如：日本、韩国在21世纪后“失去的二十年”、“拉美陷阱”等，而最终亦未能实现对西方的超越。\n“昂纳克假设”之所以在实践中未能发生，究其根源在于其并未认识到“人口红利”的本质是“人口借贷”，即：人力在18岁之前，是一种需要被不断投资的社会资源（对应央行工作报告中“人口转型的第I阶段”），从18岁到大约65岁，则是能够产生丰厚的社会收益的优质资产（对应“人口转型的第II阶段”），但到了64岁后，人口红利将因为老化不可避免地变成人口负担——此时的人已经丧失了大部分社会效益，反而需要长期不断的社会扶助（对应“人口转型的第III-IV阶段”）。\n\n这就是人口红利的微妙之处，在 18-65岁之间，人口是社会红利，在65岁之后，人口是社会负担。这种属性决定了，人口红利的量级越大，其所延伸的人口借贷——即65岁后的人口负担也将越大。\n更重要的是，“昂纳克假说”的潜在假设：低劳动力成本优势，本质是对人口红利的滥用，而滥用将更容易导致人力资源和发展的不可持续性，比如：城市化和工业化的快速推进在大幅增加居民房价等生活成本的同时，对低劳动力成本的长期有意维持，必然会增加居民生活压力与焦虑感，最终不可避免地进一步削弱人口的繁衍能力，使得人力资源的持续性利用出现不可逆的损伤。\n二、未来五年我国的“人口转型”：三波“婴儿潮红利”的“黄昏”\n就我国自身的“人口转型”而言，如果说，2012年左右劳动力适龄人口开始减少的“刘易斯拐点”形成（从2012年至今，我国16周岁至60周岁的劳动年龄人口减少了3000万），标志着劳动力过剩向短缺的转折点的形成，也即由央行工作报告中的第II阶段向第III阶段转变：人口规模继续增长但增速放缓，经济增速由升转降，但仍保持增长。那么伴随未来5-10年我国建国后的三波“婴儿潮”“红利”濒临“临界点”，我国“人口转型”可能走向下一个拐点：\n图表2中详细划分了建国以来我国的三波婴儿潮。根据这三波婴儿潮的出生高峰，可以推演未来5-10年我国的“人口转型”：\n\n1） 考虑到我国人口平均寿命为75岁，出生在建国初期的第一波婴儿潮（每年出生人口约2000万），预计或将从 5年后开始逐渐进入“生命周期的尾声”。从生命周期来看，第一波婴儿潮的预期死亡会在2025~2029年，结合公安部公布的2020年新生儿1003.5万，假设我国出生率维持这一水平不变而推演，预计2025年后，我国人口每年或净减少1000万左右。\n2） 更为迫切的是，从2022年开始，中国历史上出生人口最多的主力婴儿潮（1962开始的“婴儿潮”），开始进入集中退休期，同时，2018年中国社会科学院研究显示，中国青年人口的数量正在持续减少，未来五年或将净减少3000万人。青年人口下降的同时老年人口增加，这无疑将极大增加我国财政负担。\n3） 与此同时，作为60后婴儿潮的“回声”，也是我国最后的“婴儿潮”：85后-90初，其“二胎”生育是当前维持全社会生育率的“中流砥柱”：2019年二孩占出生人口比例达57%，而二胎中又以80后为绝对主力。而在未来5-10年，这批最后的“婴儿潮”亦将超过35-40岁，即逐渐失去“黄金生育年龄”，同时，考虑到1991年后，生育率的持续单边下行及90后生育意愿的快速降低。这意味着，即便国家大力放开甚至鼓励生育，预计亦很难达到政策预期的效果。\n在未来五年建国后的三大“婴儿潮红利”均逐步步入“黄昏”之下，我们认为，我国“人口转型”可能走向下一个拐点，即由第III阶段向第IV阶段转变：老年抚养比快速上升，老龄化与少子化严重，经济增长进一步放缓。作为投资者需要高度关注这一社会大势变化下所蕴含的投资机遇与风险。\n三、“人口转型”下经济数量与质量之“辩”：对日本“失去三十年”的再认知\n就经济而言，长期来看，伴随我国人口向第IV阶段（老龄化与少子化）转型，以GDP增速为代表的经济总量指标大趋势下行方向或是某种程度的必然。但需要注意的是，数量不等于质量，老龄化下经济总量下行并不意味着经济质量的必然下行，更不意味着资本市场失去投资价值。相反，如果面临老龄化挑战下，政策举措得当，则经济结构或可得到进一步优化，经济质量与国家竞争力亦可在新的维度获得提升。\n以全球老龄化与少子化最为严重的经济体——日本为例，一般认为，日本自90年代泡沫破裂后进入经济长时间衰退与停滞。然而，如果我们跳出GDP框架，情况真的如此吗？\n首先，从日本海外资产情况来看，根据日本财务省的数据，截至2019年末，日本海外资产10万亿美元，几乎是GDP的2倍，名列全球第四，高于中国大陆的7万亿美元；扣除负债后的净资产是3.4万亿美元，更是连续30年位居全球第一，是第三名中国大陆的1.5倍。\n也就是说，平时国内聚焦的老龄化，经济衰退的日本，仅仅是“一个狭义的日本”，即：日本本土，日本的另一部分——“海外日本”往往容易被忽视。事实上，伴随老龄化下日本国内消费与市场的饱和，日本政府早在70年代末开始就不断通过推动日元国际化与金融开放，引导日本企业、资金走向海外这个更大的市场以弥补国内资本回报率的不足：\n根据韩国银行 2008年发表的《日本企业长寿的秘密及启示》的报告书披露，在全球超过200年历史的5586家公司之中，有3146家都有日资的股份。这些优质公司，每年为日本贡献庞大的收益，如：日本软银，是全球600多家公司的股东，还是阿里巴巴的最大股东；日本本土企业也在大规模走出去，在海外投资建厂，扩大海外收益，如：优衣库，2018年海外收益首次超过本土；丰田汽车，2019年在华销量首次超过本土。\n在全球竞争的基础上，日本企业的竞争力与关键技术研发能力也一直处于全球领先水平，如：全球五百强企业数量中，日本常年维持第2至第3排名；科研方面，诺贝尔奖获奖人数全球第6，几乎每年都有科学家获奖。在新材料、光刻机、精密机床、数控机器人等诸多关键技术领域亦保持全球领先的竞争力。\n其次，就日本国内社会与消费结构而言，既然老龄化下，整体内需下行压力越来越大，那么通过社会结构改革，提升全社会消费率的需求就愈发迫切：由于边际消费倾向递减的效应，同样1元钱分配给穷人能够带动的消费要远远大于富人，因此提升全社会消费率最关键的因素就是能否通过收入分配改革，缩小贫富分化，扩大中产阶层数量。\n\n事实上，自日本70年代开始不断推行以“收入倍增计划”为代表的收入分配改革后，全社会贫富分化显著降低，以基尼系数看：尽管日本国民直接收入的基尼系数仍呈扩大态势（从2000年的0.5上升至2014年的0.57），但经过政府“再分配”后，日本社会基尼系数显著下降为0.32，根据2019年联合报告，日本贫富差距为全亚洲最低，在全球亦属顶尖（第11名）。\n与收入倍增等收入分配计划推进相对应地，日本自70年代起，全社会消费率整体持续上行，有效的对冲了老龄化加速对内需下行的压力，是日本跨越“中等收入陷阱”的关键因素。特别是在90年代日本经济泡沫破裂后，包括优衣库、小林制药在内的一大批适应新趋势变化的消费品公司脱颖而出，成为日本股市的“十倍股”（我们在后文将详细分析）。\n\n总之，人口转型到老龄化、少子化的第IV阶段后，尽管以GDP衡量的狭义日本本土或许“失去了三十年”，但伴随日本政府在日元国际化、收入分配等方面大力度的改革，日本企业与百姓并“没有失去三十年”，反而在某种意义上，获得了提升，这无疑是值得我们充分借鉴的。\n就我国而言，未来5-10年，人口由第III阶段向第IV阶段转变固然会带来前所未有的挑战，但也要看到，我国在政策上已筹划了充足的应对，其中，一些决定老龄化下能否高质量发展的关键举措，也已写入《国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要》等最高规格政策文件，如：实行更高水平对外开放，“一带一路”，推进人民币国际化；加大税收、社会保障、转移支付等调节力度和精准性，发挥慈善等第三次分配作用，改善收入和财富分配格局等。\n当然，所谓“一份部署，九份落实”，政策能在多大程度上落地，又能在多大程度上对冲人口老龄化带来的负面冲击仍有待观察，但至少未来5-10年，中国经济向高质量方向发展的方向是确定的。\n在此基础上，从政策角度看，利率在中长期的决定因素是企业净资产收益率。伴随人口老龄化与少子化程度加深，国内本土企业净资产回报率下行，货币政策在中长期维持相对宽松可期，使得利率与企业净资产收益率相匹配。同时，养老负担日趋加重带来的财政收支不匹配亦将在未来限制财政政策空间。故货币政策也将越来越成为政府调控经济的主要手段。\n因此，在经济质量提升与流动性长期合理充裕可期之下，我们仍看好国内资本市场中长期的配置逻辑，同时，未来5年，我国人口与社会结构巨变下，至少资本市场新的结构性机会将不断涌现。那么我们该如何把握这种“人口转型”下的投资机遇呢？\n四、房地产系统性风险是否终将暴露？——日本房地产调控的成败之鉴\n在阐述资本市场的具体投资机会之前，我们首先要解决的是，“人口转型”下资本市场最大的潜在风险：“人口红利”的消失使得人口这一对房地产支撑的长期关键因素开始迅速弱化，人口向老龄化与少子化转型下，房地产中长期周期下行或是某种程度的必然。然而，房地产周期下行是否必然带来系统性风险呢？\n从现有国际经验看，似乎不能排除这种可能：《广场协议》后，日元大幅升值，日本房地产开始出现泡沫，随后日本1990年代老龄化少子化加深及经济低速增长后，房地产泡沫破裂，而房价的暴跌又不断引发债务违约甚至中小银行破产——1997年日本长信银行破产，引发中小银行破产潮，这种信用的坍塌又引发风险偏好急剧收缩，进而引发日本股市日经指数从1990至1998年，暴跌66.64%，资本市场的崩溃又进一步加剧了居民财富的萎缩和实体经济的困难，形成负面循环。这种负面循环所代表的系统性风险是市场对老龄化转型下最为担心的焦点问题。然而，日本这一老龄化下的系统性风险真的不可避免吗？\n实际上，老龄化并不是刺破日本房地产泡沫，进而诱发系统性风险的主因，而是日本当局货币政策不得当的节奏——“先松后紧”，导致了日本房价迅速的高企与坠落，并引发了金融系统的不稳定。1986年日本央行在日元升值的背景下采取了过于宽松的货币政策，如，1986年开始央行把基准利率从5%大幅降低到2.5%，并且在实施宽松的货币政策同时对当时投机炒作的资本缺乏强有力的监管。土地作为撬动大量信贷的抵押物，价格自然被投机资本运作的虚高。这种宽松的政策与监管环境带来了日本房地产价格的泡沫化，1986-89年，日本东京房价指数从103增长至213水平，东京等大城市三年间的房价翻了一倍之多。\n\n随后，房地产泡沫的高企让央行不得不采取快速的加息，1989年-1991年央行持续加息，基准利率从2.5%快速提高到6.25%；此外，1991年日本政府又出台了地价税及强化了特别土地保有税，控制土地价格过快上涨。最终导致了房地产泡沫的破灭，换来房价短期的快速下跌，增加了系统性风险的敞口。1996 年前后日本房价和地价逐渐止跌企稳，但泡沫发展时形成的企业和个人债务未随破裂而消亡，导致当时依靠借款进行非理性投资的企业和个人至今仍背负沉重债务负担。\n\n我们认为，日本央行在日元升值的背景下，正是先以快速宽松的货币政策助长房地产泡沫，随后又快速加息主动刺破了高涨的泡沫，这种房地产调控的“先松后紧”叠加人口老龄化、少子化的深化及经济低迷，造就了房价泡沫短期破裂的风险暴露，同时，银行隐含收益迅速下跌及以不动产为抵押的巨额贷款使日本银行业背负沉重不良债权，1995 年日本不良资产总额40 万亿日元，1997 年12 月问题债权达70万亿日元，严重影响金融系统的稳健与安全。叠加1997年亚洲金融危机，房地产泡沫破裂向金融系统的传导下，日本世界第九大银行——长信银行破产，引发了银行业的破产潮出现。\n通过日本房地产调控的成败之鉴，可以看出，“人口老龄化转型”下房地产的下行是否导致系统性风险的关键在于能否在“人口转型”的前后两个阶段，实现房价走势的“平滑化”过渡。\n然而，由于短视是人性中固有的缺陷，人们往往习惯于将短期趋势无限线性外推，日本之所以在老龄化转型过程中，采取了“前松后紧”的不恰当政策的原因正在于：在80年代后期，日本尚处于人口转型的第III阶段时，此时日本国际竞争力与地位处于历史顶峰，日本决策者很容易过度自信——认为，未来日本经济还能维持高速增长，并消化高涨的房价，全然看不到，后续老龄化高峰到来时的巨大经济下行压力；而老龄化和房地产长期拐点确立之后，此时，亟需宽松政策以对冲房价下行压力，但日本政府却因泡沫期的思维惯性，担心政策放松后，再度出现全国性飙涨，相关宽松、救助措施总是“慢半拍”，进而不断错失阻止风险蔓延的“窗口期”。\n值得庆幸的是，在当前我国人口结构处在第III阶段，房价尚有较强的上行内生动力之下。政策却高瞻远瞩，提前对房地产过热的风险进行了全方位防范：“房住不炒”的定调自2017年，便写入“十九大报告”，过去3年以来，中央及各地方对于房地产炒作亦采取了不断趋严的调控措施，一定程度上遏制了如日本90年代的房地产疯狂泡沫，并预留了充足的政策空间。\n这意味着，即便未来5-10年，我国人口转型进入“老龄化、少子化”的第IV阶段，甚至在未来某个时期，房地产面临较大下行压力的情形下，充足的政策空间与并未失控的房价“泡沫”，亦使得实施“前紧后松”政策，并助推我国房地产“平滑过渡”成为可能。因此，就可以预期的未来而言，无需过于担忧人口老龄化与房地产周期下行下，系统性风险发生的可能性。\n五、“人口转型”下，为何我们对于“鼓励生育类”主题性机会持谨慎态度？\n在我国未来5-10年向少子化、老龄化的“人口转型”压力越来越大之下，自去年年底以来，社会各界要求全面放开乃至鼓励生育的呼声亦越来越强，此次央行工作论文在政策建议中亦如此强调。这种政策上可能的方向性变化是投资者最容易，也是最直接能想到的投资机会。故央行工作论文出炉后，资本市场上亦掀起一波“鼓励生育类”“二胎类”主题炒作热，一些母婴用品相关的概念股甚至在十个交易日内涨幅翻倍。然而，“人口转型”之下，“鼓励生育类”政策是否真的能不断超预期？假使政策出台后，又是否能扭转“少子化”趋势？\n首先，就政策进程而言，我们认为，当前社会上部分专家学者看到生育率下行，就要求“立即、刻不容缓得全面放开生育”，甚至主张将“计划生育”“后队变前队”——采取包括对单身、独生子女家庭变相征税等强制性方式“鼓励生育“的想法或有一定片面性，其忽视了比人口总量更重要的人口结构。\n如前文中“人口红利”的本质是“人口借贷”中所分析的：人口在18岁之前是需要不断消耗社会资源进行投资和抚养的“负担”，只有经过近20年的漫长投资才能转换为产生丰厚社会收益的优质资产。在未来5-10年，我国历史上规模最大的“60后婴儿潮”步入退休期，60-65岁以上退休老人每年持续快速增长的基础上，假使“全面鼓励生育政策”真的如期生效，社会上再多出一大批亟需持续投入的新生“婴儿潮”，则政府财政负担与社会整体抚养负担将在10年甚至更长维度或将面临“婴儿潮与退休潮叠加的双向冲击”，这对我国政府的财政压力，经济高质量发展及居民生活水平的影响都是不可低估的。\n更为重要的是，由于我国区域发展的不均衡性，不同区域、社会阶层的人口对鼓励生育政策的反应是显著不同的：2016年全面放开二胎政策后，出生率最高三个地方分是山东（17.54‰）、西藏（16‰）和新疆（15.88‰），而负增长的6个省份中，三个是直辖市（北京、天津、上海），另外三个全部来自东北。\n这意味着，政策最希望鼓励生育的地区：老龄化最严重区域（东三省）与用工大省（直辖市等）对政策的反应效果不佳，反而越是“老、少、边、穷”区域的人口对于鼓励生育类政策反应最为良好，而这些区域新生人口大幅增加，对于来之不易的“扶贫攻坚”成果的巩固以及社会维稳工作都将增加新的负担。这种与放开生育政策初衷相违背的结构性差异，预计在后续全面放开、鼓励等政策的落地过程之中亦会表现的更加明显。\n事实上，《国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要》对我国生育政策进行的定调正是较为稳妥和慎重的：推动实现适度生育水平，优化生育政策，促进人口长期均衡发展。我们预计，十四五期间，鼓励生育类政策，诸如：放开“三胎”，全面放开生育乃至奖励生育等政策，有可能采取循序渐进符合国情的模式稳妥推进，这意味着政策落地的节奏与当前资本市场热点资金所期望的“立即、刻不容缓全面放开”的“激进模式”是有差异的。\n其次，就政策落地后的效果而言，与部分舆论将当前“少子化”主要责任归咎于计划生育政策，认为政策作出方向转变后，生育率就会较大幅度的回升的观点相比，我们认为，如央行工作论文所言，少子化与老龄化某种意义上是一个国家现代化下的必然产物，既然是必然趋势，故不以政策及制定者的主观意图为转移：\n纵观全球不同文化、体制下的各国鼓励生育政策实施效果，可以发现一旦一国工业化和城市化达到一定高度，则无论何种强度、形式的鼓励生育政策，从长期看，均难以改变生育率下行的大趋势。\n从图表7全球各国鼓励生育政策及政策实施前后生育率对照表（表中包括：东亚文化代表日本、韩国，西方文明典型代表国家法国、德国，东正教文明代表俄罗斯以及伊斯兰文明代表性国家伊朗）中，可以发现，当一国总和生育率(TFR)下降至2.1的世代更替水平以下时，各国大力采取鼓励生育措施：比如：俄罗斯通过设立“母亲基金”为生育第二个和更多孩子的俄罗斯家庭提供数十万卢布的补贴，仅基金成立的前十年，财政补贴总额就已超过1.5万亿卢布；日本生一个孩子则可直接领取40万日元以上的生育给付金；法国鼓励生育政策已持续实施60年有余，每年的相关财政支出达到了830亿欧元。\n\n尽管上述各国的鼓励生育措施力度和决心不可谓不大，有的甚至已经是穷竭政策的所有可能性，但实际效果却“差强人意”：\n第一，所有国家在大力实施鼓励生育后，总和生育率(TFR)水平均未达到为2.1的世代更替水平的政策基准目标（最高的不超过1.85）；\n第二，不同文化的国家对于鼓励生育政策的反应程度显著不同，这其中，东亚文化对于鼓励生育政策反应最不敏感，日本、韩国、新加坡在实施大力鼓励生育政策后生育率依然维持在低水平或依旧下降；\n第三，俄罗斯、法国等部分欧洲国家在实施大力鼓励生育的政策后，整体生育率有一定成效，但实际上却蕴含了两大隐患：\n\n1）少数族裔成为生育率提升的主体，主体民族与少数族裔生育情况进一步失衡：俄罗斯族的总和生育率(TFR)在1.6以下，而其境内穆斯林（如：车臣）则高达3.2以上，这造成了，过去20年以来，俄罗斯族人口减少了近1400万，而境内穆斯林人口数量已经超过了16%，达到2500万；法国则通过欢迎非洲人口，尤其是历史上的法国殖民地国家移民，给黑人发放生育补贴，生得越多，补贴越高，造成整体生育率提升。上述两国中，文化差异巨大的少数族裔占比快速提升，所引发的社会深层次结构性问题加剧，是近年来上述两国社会不稳定因素增多的重要原因之一。\n2）鼓励生育政策的“边际效用”递减现象，即：开始大力度实施生育补贴等政策时，生育率会在1-2年内快速提升，然后当人们开始习惯生育补贴后，生育率又会再次进入下降通道，只能不断依靠更大力度补贴刺激，这将给财政带来越来越大的负担，比如：俄罗斯在2007年“母亲基金”项目实施后，俄罗斯的出生率一度在短期内提高了30%，但从2017年开始，俄罗斯生育率又开始每年持续降低，从2017的1.62下降至2019年为1.5，距离2024年生育率要达到1.75政策目标越来越难。\n\n第四，值得注意的是，即便国人印象中最强调生育的文化和宗教：穆斯林文明的代表伊朗，在工业化和城市化后，生育率亦呈快速下降趋势（伊朗每名妇女生育数从60年代的7人下降至2010年1.8人），且2012年伊朗全面废除计划生育后，伊朗在面临欧美强力制裁，经济十分困难的情况之下，仍采取每年拿出超过1900亿里亚尔的资金鼓励生育，并严禁一切绝育手术等政策大力度鼓励生育，但政策实施十年来，伊朗生育率仅小幅回升至勉强到世代更替水平，再不复当年超高生育率的传统。\n\n上述各国的鼓励生育类政策的落地后之所以效用不佳，无法改变生育率下行的趋势的背后是有着深刻原因的：生育率下行的肇因并非政策，而是现代化，特别是工业化与城市化：\n一方面，工业化社会对科学技术水平的苛刻要求，迫使居民为了让子女适应未来需求，不惜一切代价地提升自己子女的受教育水平。这使得现代社会受教育水平急剧提升的同时，也极大地抬高了现代家庭抚养子女的成本，加剧了下一代子女的晚婚程度，从而削弱其生育潜能。\n另一方面，与农耕文明自给自足的生活相比，城市化在极大的压缩居民居住空间（从图9可知居住密度对于生育率有决定性影响，住公寓楼的家庭超过一半的西欧国家，毫无例外发生生育灾难，而占比只有1/3的国家则明显改观）的同时，又极大的增加了居民生活成本：住房、医疗、交通等各类费用的账单给市民带来无穷无尽的生活压力，迫使市民不得不夜以继日地加大工作强度，这固然为经济发展提供了充足的动力，但如此紧迫的生活使得市民几乎没有时间与精力养育孩子。这种情况下，生育率的快速下降亦是难以避免的。\n\n最后，现代化的医学与科技进步在极大地延长现代社会人口寿命的同时，也带来了人口的老龄化，并给现代化国家造成了前所未有的财政负担：以我国为例，建国前，在漫长的封建农耕时代中，我国人均寿命曾长期维持在40岁以下，这固然是社会发展落后的象征，但却让人口结构保持了足够的青春和活力；建国后，伴随工业化与现代化，人均寿命亦一路上行至如今的75岁，这固然反映了人均生活水平的巨大提升，但某种程度上，也意味着，虚弱、无力但时光漫长的老人们占全社会人口比例越来越高，而具备劳动能力的年轻人占比则不断下降，如前所述，这将为我国的财政带来巨大的挑战。\n既然少子化与老龄化的本质在于社会的现代化，特别是现代化的两个基石——工业化与城市化。而现代化又是一个国家和社会进步的方向，是历史的大势所趋，其无论对国家综合国力的增强，还是对个人生活水平的改善都是不容置疑的，正所谓“停顿和倒退没有出路”。那么，反过来少子化与老龄化趋势亦是难以改变的——政策最多只能延缓斜率而无法扭转方向。在这样的大势面前，试图炒作政策放宽下，生育率快速回升的投资方向终究只能是“昙花一现”。\n作为投资者而言，既然老龄化与少子化某种程度上是历史的必然，那么与其对抗大势，不如拥抱“转折的大时代”所孕育的投资机会。参考日本等国家经验，我们认为，与生育端相比，“人口转型”的另一端：老龄化下社会结构与消费风向变化下所孕育的投资机会，或是真正长期“十倍牛股”的“集结地”。\n六、“人口转换”下，资本市场真正的“十倍股”投资机会在哪里？\n1、最直接的思路：关注“纯老年需求”的增加\n老龄化之下，一个最直接的投资思路是关注老年人生活密切相关的子行业，如：养老护理、慢病医疗、殡葬业等。我们仍以日本老龄社会的老年人消费为鉴，2016年日本65岁以上的老人数量超3000万，约占总人口比例为22%；日本厚生劳动省预计，至2025年日本战后婴儿潮的一代将达到75岁以上超高龄，65岁以上的老年人规模预计3700万，占总人口比例提高至30%。“老有所依”的观念下，医疗护理、养老居住服务等行业已经确定成为2025年后日本经济的增长点。其中，\n\n1）日本殡葬行业市场空间为中国的2倍。根据学者江余裕在《日本殡葬与中日殡葬对比》中披露的中日殡葬业的对比数据，日本进入深度老龄化以来每年死亡人数约为130万人，全国殡葬企业6000多家，行业年营业额约1600亿元。而我国每年死亡人数约900万左右，全国殡葬服务机构总数4300个，殡葬业市场规模仅为700亿元，不足同源殡葬文化下的日本的一半。\n2）养老看护服务行业将随人口老龄化的加剧而不断兴盛，日本政府引导护理行业的社会投资。以日本为例，深度老龄化的医疗护理加重政府财政负担，2004年后日本制定了《老人福利法》、《老人保健法》及《护理保险法》等重要的政策，鼓励社会资本参与护理行业，养老护理行业快速发展。根据前瞻研究院数据，2018年我国养老产业市场规模增长至5.6万亿元，同比增速17.9%；到2024年预计将突破10万亿元，年均增速约20%。我们预计，在我国迈向深度老龄化社会的进程中，围绕医疗养老、个人护理等“纯老年人”消费需求增速或明显提升。\n\n值得注意的是，尽管上述与老人生活密切相关的“纯老年需求”增加是确定的趋势，但从资本市场看，相关细分在过去20年，却从未产生“十倍股”。部分原因可能是由于“人生财富曲线”效应，老人的消费和收入在社会各年龄中都是最弱的，因此，从投资角度看亦不是最优选择。那么“人口转型”下真正的“十倍牛股”投资机遇又在哪里呢？\n2、“人口转型”下，真正的“十倍牛股”“集结地”：老龄化下中青年人消费心态的变化\n我们一直强调，消费心态的变化在消费趋势及投资机会的把握中应该赋予更高的权重，而人口结构的老龄化对社会消费的内在影响在于：全社会对生命周期的预期改变，这其中，中青年人作为边际消费倾向最高的人群，其消费心态与消费习惯的变化往往主导着某一历史阶段消费产业变迁的方向。\n\n以1995年日本股市泡沫破裂之后的消费板块的“十倍股”的细分赛道为例，日本在90年代中后期开始进入“消费欲望低迷”的社会阶段，而在日本这一低迷的经济增长与人口切换期，出现了以优衣库为代表的高性价比服饰、ARATA为代表的保健品和美容药妆产品等消费领域的“十倍股”。\n我们认为，低速增长时代出现的十倍股是有明显特征的：在经济增速换挡时期，老龄化+少子化的趋势不断加深，所有公司都能成长的时代落幕后，顺应消费趋势的“新兴的细分赛道”的公司开始出现强劲成长之机。社会居民理性消费的趋势开始抬头，1995-2020年 “穿越牛熊”的消费常胜股票集中在高性价比服装零售、休闲用品、汽车零配件、化妆品、功能保健性食品饮料等细分赛道。\n以区间涨幅排名第一的迅销集团（Fast Retailing）为例，迅销集团是一家主要从事服装业务的日本控股公司，旗下优衣库部门在日本国内市场和海外市场以UNIQLO的品牌名称销售休闲服装。由于新增人口数量逐年下降，日本市场饱和，年轻世代对产品的质量和性价比提出了更高的要求，优衣库的简约风格和优质面料研发迎合了日本年轻人“低欲望”下的理性消费观。\n又如，药妆及保健品零售供应商龙头ARATA为例，其为日本一线企业提供快消品上下游供应链服务，上游对接超1200+供应商（资生堂、小林制药等）获得商品，海量商品及服务触达下游3500+零售商（松本清、永旺等）。ARATA是日本所有头部药妆店的核心供应商，其内在逻辑即是顺应了日本老龄化下年轻人对化妆品、保健类日常用品的需求。\n从上述对日本“十倍股”复盘可知，“人口转型”下，真正的长期牛股投资机遇或在于：老龄化加速下，全社会消费心态的变化——中青年人对预期寿命的提高及提前防老的焦虑。\n1）因为担心年老后生活质量下降，故中青年人购买保险意识明显增强：根据日本生命保险协会数据，2018年日本保险密度为7.7%，超过世界平均的5.4%，保费收入市占率位居全球第三。日本在经济低速增长及老龄化社会形成的1990-2000年，日本保险行业发展也逐渐走向成熟。我国保险行业伴随产品的完善及服务的升级，或也在渐进的老龄化时代加速发展。麦肯锡公司发布的《中国寿险市场下一个五年的增长引擎：产品保障升级与创新》指出，与成熟市场5%-10%的寿险渗透率相比，2019年中国市场仅约3%。保险产品的渗透率会受益于老龄化进程加深而逐步提升。\n2）因为害怕变老，所以中青年人千方百计希望延缓衰老、留住青春，故药品保健、医美、药妆及健康饮料等细分行业持续高增长。近20年，日本家庭在医疗保健方面支出占比增长较高。在医疗保健消费结构中，医疗服务、医疗用品和器具、药物、医疗保健品平均占比分别为56.4%、17.3%、17.2%和9.0%。\n例如，日本小林制药近来受到消费者的追捧。小林制药是全能型企业，致力于开发能够满足消费者所有需求的生活必备品、药品、医疗器械、日用品、食品，并推出多款备受好评的药妆。人气商品包括：液体创可贴、乳膏型涂抹药、VC美白祛斑膏、散热贴等。\n事实上，这一消费心态的变化近年来亦开始在我国相关行业中逐步体现，比如：我国医药保健品的消费主力已不再是60岁以上的老年人，而是中青年人的巨大增量市场。近些年，90后的“养生主义”悄然兴起，根据阿里健康《2017年度健康消费报告》数据，18—29岁的年轻人在健康消费人群中的占比已超过50%。90后、00后比上一辈更注重健康和保养，甚至打破性别、年龄的边界。2018年国内保健品龙头汤臣倍健将目标瞄准了追求“美丽、时尚、健康”的年轻消费群体，大力推行产品“年轻化”，助推其2020年电商线上渠道收入同比增长62.77%。\n\n3）因为忧虑老年后的孤独和缺乏陪伴，故宠物经济蓬勃发展。根据凯络洞察披露的数据，2010年以来宠物市场规模达到980亿元，至2020年的行业规模的年均增长率或维持18%。但国内家庭宠物拥有率仅有约4%-5%，远不足日本家庭宠物拥有率的38%。老龄化趋势增强宠物在全社会家庭中的心理陪护性需求的主动消费意愿，相关宠物食品及宠物医疗细分领域的景气度或进一步提升。\n\n3、“人口转型”下，“新世代年轻人”将是消费趋势的“领军者”\n根据我们对日本世代消费的研究表明， “年轻世代”是引领日本“经济低迷期”消费趋势的主力。如，1990年代日本经济低迷时代的团块次代（战后婴儿潮的子女）在童年期，由于经济高增长所激发的高期望，与工作后经济下行、阶层固化等构成的残酷现实，形成心理上的剧烈反差。这种心理反差进而塑造了其更加注重简约化、高性价比的“低欲望”消费习惯。日本消费社会在2000年左右，以优衣库、大创及无印良品等为代表的新一代消费品龙头企业的崛起，正是顺应了这一消费习惯变化的产物。\n\n对于中国目前而言，中日两国人口结构的相似及分化加大的社会背景，意味着老龄化对全社会消费预期的变化或是相似的。传承“世代财富”的95后—00后是最具消费潜力的人群，其所领军的“新消费”亦或是这其中最为明显的消费细分。我国95后—00后出生于1990年代，通讯信息技术高速发展的时代，全球化、信息化带来的多元文化的冲击深刻影响了其价值观，使其更加依赖线上便捷式的多元消费。这种变化驱动了抖音、快手及B站等线上视频社交零售、互动平台的快速发展；在消费文化观念上，中国宏观经济高速增长的成长背景，驱使新世代人群有更强的民族自信、文化自信。其强大的文化自信也带动了“新潮国货”的崛起；年轻世代不断壮大的单身群体也催生了日渐火爆的“单身经济”和“宅经济”。\n以此维度来看，无论从日本消费行十倍股的复盘，还是世代消费变迁的启示，都可以看到，在老龄化社会逐步加速背景下，股市的“长跑冠军”仍是锁定边际消费倾向高的群体的，顺应且精准锁定“新世代”年轻人消费趋势变化的企业。\n风险提示：老龄化下经济失速风险，地缘局势恶化超预期，文中对人口变化规模测算偏差风险等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":919,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345086501,"gmtCreate":1618265491803,"gmtModify":1704708229561,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345086501","repostId":"1140947470","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140947470","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618241247,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140947470?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 23:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Investment bank says Tesla will conquer trillion-dollar market, sharply hikes price target","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140947470","media":"新浪财经","summary":"到2025年，特斯拉的能源生产和储能部门将产生80亿美元的收入。","content":"<p>Canaccord Genuity, a well-known Canadian investment bank, said that with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The company steps up its focus on energy production and storage businesses, and the company known for its electric vehicles is bound to \"attack and conquer\" another trillion-dollar market.</p><p>Analyst Jed Dorsheimer upgraded Tesla stock to buy from hold and gave it one of Wall Street's highest price targets. He predicts that Tesla's energy production and storage division will generate $8 billion in revenue by 2025.</p><p>In a note to customers on Monday, Dorsheime said: \"Tesla is rapidly creating a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Energy product ecosystem. \" He raised his price target on Tesla to $1,071 from $419, meaning he expects the stock to rise nearly 60%. Tesla shares have risen nearly fivefold in the past year.</p><p>The analyst said Tesla is using all available resources to meet battery demand, including in-house production at its Fremont plant, with partners<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PC\">Panasonic</a>Manufactured in Nevada, as well as a supply agreement with LG Chem. He said the company will be able to meet demand for its Powerwall home energy storage devices as supply constraints ease. This storage device is typically used in conjunction with a solar installation.</p><p>Dorsheimer's price target values Tesla stock and net debt at 63 times his 2024 earnings forecast for the company. That's three times the average valuation of a group of competitors, he said.</p><p>\"While a high valuation was given, we also believe Tesla has a lead for several years and is now aggressively moving into energy storage, so we think the valuation we gave is reasonable,\" the analyst wrote.</p><p>Dorsheimer is not yet the most bullish Tesla analyst. Ark Invest Management said last month that the company's Cathie Wood expects Tesla shares to reach $3,000 by 2025.</p>","source":"XLCJ","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investment bank says Tesla will conquer trillion-dollar market, sharply hikes price target</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestment bank says Tesla will conquer trillion-dollar market, sharply hikes price target\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-12 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Canaccord Genuity, a well-known Canadian investment bank, said that with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The company steps up its focus on energy production and storage businesses, and the company known for its electric vehicles is bound to \"attack and conquer\" another trillion-dollar market.</p><p>Analyst Jed Dorsheimer upgraded Tesla stock to buy from hold and gave it one of Wall Street's highest price targets. He predicts that Tesla's energy production and storage division will generate $8 billion in revenue by 2025.</p><p>In a note to customers on Monday, Dorsheime said: \"Tesla is rapidly creating a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Energy product ecosystem. \" He raised his price target on Tesla to $1,071 from $419, meaning he expects the stock to rise nearly 60%. Tesla shares have risen nearly fivefold in the past year.</p><p>The analyst said Tesla is using all available resources to meet battery demand, including in-house production at its Fremont plant, with partners<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PC\">Panasonic</a>Manufactured in Nevada, as well as a supply agreement with LG Chem. He said the company will be able to meet demand for its Powerwall home energy storage devices as supply constraints ease. This storage device is typically used in conjunction with a solar installation.</p><p>Dorsheimer's price target values Tesla stock and net debt at 63 times his 2024 earnings forecast for the company. That's three times the average valuation of a group of competitors, he said.</p><p>\"While a high valuation was given, we also believe Tesla has a lead for several years and is now aggressively moving into energy storage, so we think the valuation we gave is reasonable,\" the analyst wrote.</p><p>Dorsheimer is not yet the most bullish Tesla analyst. Ark Invest Management said last month that the company's Cathie Wood expects Tesla shares to reach $3,000 by 2025.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-04-12/doc-ikmxzfmk6437611.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ba18e4c173130d8ec828f5035d30189","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-04-12/doc-ikmxzfmk6437611.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140947470","content_text":"加拿大知名投行Canaccord Genuity表示，随着特斯拉公司加强对能源生产和储能业务的关注，这家以电动汽车闻名的公司必将“攻击并征服”另一个规模达万亿美元的市场。分析师Jed Dorsheimer将特斯拉股票评级从持有上调至买入，并给予其华尔街最高目标价之一。他预测，到2025年，特斯拉的能源生产和储能部门将产生80亿美元的收入。Dorsheime在周一给客户的一份报告中说：“特斯拉正在迅速创建一个苹果式的能源产品生态系统。”他将其对特斯拉的目标价从419美元上调至1071美元，意味着他预计该股将上涨接近60%。在过去一年中，特斯拉股价已上涨近五倍。这位分析师表示，特斯拉正在利用所有可用资源来满足电池需求，包括其弗里蒙特工厂的内部生产， 与合作伙伴松下在内华达州生产，以及与LG化学签订供应协议。他说，随着供应紧张状况缓解，该公司将能够满足对其Powerwall家用储能设备的需求。该存储设备通常与太阳能装置配合使用。Dorsheimer的价格目标对特斯拉股票和净债务的估值为他对2024年该公司盈利预测的63倍。他说，这是一组竞争对手的平均估值的三倍。这位分析师写道：“虽然给出了高估值，但我们也相信特斯拉拥有数年的领先优势，并且现在正积极进军储能领域，因此我们认为我们给出的估值是合理的。”Dorsheimer还不是最看好的特斯拉的分析师。Ark Invest Management上个月表示，该公司的Cathie Wood预计特斯拉股价到2025年将达到3，000美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346738619,"gmtCreate":1618110941331,"gmtModify":1704706698473,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/346738619","repostId":"2126006034","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2126006034","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"美股研究社，一个专注研究美股的平台，专业的美股投资人都在这。想了解美国股市行情、美股开户、美股资讯、美股公司；想获得一手美股重磅信息；想加入美股交流社群，敬请关注我们吧。","home_visible":0,"media_name":"美股研究社","id":"1074069735","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6"},"pubTimestamp":1618049504,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2126006034?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-10 18:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Among the three favorite stocks of \"Sister Wood\", who is most worthy of investors to \"Call\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2126006034","media":"美股研究社","summary":"下面是三支遭受重创的Cathie Wood股票，它们是目前特别值得买入的股票。","content":"<p>Even the best investors go through tough times. That's the case with Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of Ark Investments. Shares in the five largest exchange-traded funds (ETFs) managed by Wood are well below their highs earlier this year.</p><p>However, the stock market pullback presents a huge opportunity for other investors to buy into shares of the best companies owned by the ARK ETF. Here are three hard-hit Cathie Wood stocks that are particularly buys right now.</p><p><b>Sea Limite (SE.US)</b></p><p>Sea Limited's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKF\">ARK Fintech Innovation ETF</a>Ranked fifth in. It is the 10th largest position in the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF. The company's shares have dropped more than 12% from a high reached in February.</p><p>Of course, the company announced a big fourth-quarter loss in early March. However, the stock's decline has more to do with investors pulling out of growth stocks than with Sea's underlying business. Actually, the company's business is booming.</p><p>Sea's digital entertainment division is making a fortune from the success of Free Fire, the highest-revenue mobile game in Latin America and Southeast Asia for six consecutive quarters. The business is essentially subsidizing the company's loss-making division, which is focused on digital finance and e-commerce.</p><p>However, I think the long-term outlook for Sea is very positive for all three businesses. Free Fire remains a global mobile gaming giant. Sea's Shopee e-commerce platform leads markets such as Southeast Asia, Indonesia, and continues to deliver strong revenue growth. The company's SeaMoney mobile wallet is also accelerating.</p><p>I expect Sea's bottom line to improve, and I expect its share price to bounce back well.</p><p><b>Square (SQ.US)</b></p><p>Wood's favorite stock is Square (NYSE:SQ). The stock is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKF\">ARK Fintech Innovation ETF</a>The largest holding and the second largest position in the ARK Innovation ETF and ARK Next Generation Internet ETF. But Square's stock is down 11% from its February high.</p><p>As in the case of Sea Limited, Square's pullback was primarily the result of a market rotation. Although the company's seller ecosystem was negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, there were signs of improvement in the fourth quarter. The increased supply of vaccines bodes well for stronger performance for the rest of 2021.</p><p>Square's cash app digital wallet, meanwhile, remains a huge growth story for the company. In the fourth quarter of this year, cash app gross profit soared 162% year over year. Square should be able to achieve even greater growth by driving the use of related products and services, such as cash and debit cards.</p><p>In March, the company achieved a major milestone as Square's financial services division began banking. Under the protection of a federally chartered bank, Square will be able to provide more financial services to its commercial customers. The fintech giant is likely to expand its banking services over time.</p><p>In many ways, Square's efforts to disrupt the financial services industry are just getting started. Its share price has plenty of upside.</p><p><b>Teladoc Health (TDOC.US)</b></p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>Among the most owned companies, Teladoc Health is second only to Square in terms of ownership. The virtual care industry leader is the fourth largest holding in the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF and ranks first in the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF. As much as Wood likes Teladoc's stock, its stock has fallen nearly 40% from its February high.</p><p>Institutional investors moving money away from growth stocks is one reason Teladoc's underperformance. However, the company also expects revenue growth to slow in the fourth quarter of 2021. In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Announced plans to enter the telemedicine market this summer.</p><p>To all of this, my answer is simply looking at the long-term prospects of Teladoc. Virtual healthcare is still in its early stages. McKinsey Consulting forecasts that the U.S. virtual health market will reach $250 billion a year after the pandemic ends. Teladoc opportunities aren't just limited to the United States, either.</p><p>I think, without a doubt, this is a large enough market to support multiple winners. Teladoc's leadership, market share (currently accounting for more than 40% of Fortune 500 customers), and range of products and services give the company a solid competitive edge.</p><p>In 2020, with an unprecedented surge in telemedicine demand due to the pandemic, it's entirely understandable that revenue growth will slow somewhat. While in the long run, Teladoc should be able to continue to grow strongly.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Among the three favorite stocks of \"Sister Wood\", who is most worthy of investors to \"Call\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmong the three favorite stocks of \"Sister Wood\", who is most worthy of investors to \"Call\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">美股研究社 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-10 18:11</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Even the best investors go through tough times. That's the case with Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of Ark Investments. Shares in the five largest exchange-traded funds (ETFs) managed by Wood are well below their highs earlier this year.</p><p>However, the stock market pullback presents a huge opportunity for other investors to buy into shares of the best companies owned by the ARK ETF. Here are three hard-hit Cathie Wood stocks that are particularly buys right now.</p><p><b>Sea Limite (SE.US)</b></p><p>Sea Limited's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKF\">ARK Fintech Innovation ETF</a>Ranked fifth in. It is the 10th largest position in the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF. The company's shares have dropped more than 12% from a high reached in February.</p><p>Of course, the company announced a big fourth-quarter loss in early March. However, the stock's decline has more to do with investors pulling out of growth stocks than with Sea's underlying business. Actually, the company's business is booming.</p><p>Sea's digital entertainment division is making a fortune from the success of Free Fire, the highest-revenue mobile game in Latin America and Southeast Asia for six consecutive quarters. The business is essentially subsidizing the company's loss-making division, which is focused on digital finance and e-commerce.</p><p>However, I think the long-term outlook for Sea is very positive for all three businesses. Free Fire remains a global mobile gaming giant. Sea's Shopee e-commerce platform leads markets such as Southeast Asia, Indonesia, and continues to deliver strong revenue growth. The company's SeaMoney mobile wallet is also accelerating.</p><p>I expect Sea's bottom line to improve, and I expect its share price to bounce back well.</p><p><b>Square (SQ.US)</b></p><p>Wood's favorite stock is Square (NYSE:SQ). The stock is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKF\">ARK Fintech Innovation ETF</a>The largest holding and the second largest position in the ARK Innovation ETF and ARK Next Generation Internet ETF. But Square's stock is down 11% from its February high.</p><p>As in the case of Sea Limited, Square's pullback was primarily the result of a market rotation. Although the company's seller ecosystem was negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, there were signs of improvement in the fourth quarter. The increased supply of vaccines bodes well for stronger performance for the rest of 2021.</p><p>Square's cash app digital wallet, meanwhile, remains a huge growth story for the company. In the fourth quarter of this year, cash app gross profit soared 162% year over year. Square should be able to achieve even greater growth by driving the use of related products and services, such as cash and debit cards.</p><p>In March, the company achieved a major milestone as Square's financial services division began banking. Under the protection of a federally chartered bank, Square will be able to provide more financial services to its commercial customers. The fintech giant is likely to expand its banking services over time.</p><p>In many ways, Square's efforts to disrupt the financial services industry are just getting started. Its share price has plenty of upside.</p><p><b>Teladoc Health (TDOC.US)</b></p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>Among the most owned companies, Teladoc Health is second only to Square in terms of ownership. The virtual care industry leader is the fourth largest holding in the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF and ranks first in the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF. As much as Wood likes Teladoc's stock, its stock has fallen nearly 40% from its February high.</p><p>Institutional investors moving money away from growth stocks is one reason Teladoc's underperformance. However, the company also expects revenue growth to slow in the fourth quarter of 2021. In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Announced plans to enter the telemedicine market this summer.</p><p>To all of this, my answer is simply looking at the long-term prospects of Teladoc. Virtual healthcare is still in its early stages. McKinsey Consulting forecasts that the U.S. virtual health market will reach $250 billion a year after the pandemic ends. Teladoc opportunities aren't just limited to the United States, either.</p><p>I think, without a doubt, this is a large enough market to support multiple winners. Teladoc's leadership, market share (currently accounting for more than 40% of Fortune 500 customers), and range of products and services give the company a solid competitive edge.</p><p>In 2020, with an unprecedented surge in telemedicine demand due to the pandemic, it's entirely understandable that revenue growth will slow somewhat. While in the long run, Teladoc should be able to continue to grow strongly.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"http://gimg2.baidu.com/image_search/src=http%3A%2F%2Finews.gtimg.com%2Fnewsapp_bt%2F0%2F13178222039%2F641&refer=http%3A%2F%2Finews.gtimg.com&app=2002&size=f9999,10000&q=a80&n=0&g=0n&fmt=jpeg?sec=1619929481&t=d215d79061ca1426fcf3fc9ef6561e9f","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","TDOC":"Teladoc Health Inc."},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2126006034","content_text":"即使是最好的投资者也会经历艰难时期。方舟投资公司创始人兼首席执行官Cathie  Wood就是这样。Wood管理的五大交易所交易基金(ETFs)的股价远低于今年早些时候的高点。然而，股市回调为其他投资者提供了巨大的机会，让他们可以买进方舟ETF所拥有的最好公司的股票。下面是三支遭受重创的Cathie  Wood股票，它们是目前特别值得买入的股票。Sea Limite（SE.US）Sea Limited 在Wood的ARK Fintech Innovation ETF中排名第五。它是ARK Next  Generation Internet ETF的第10大持仓。该公司股价已较2月份创下的高点下跌逾12%。当然，该公司在3月初宣布了第四季度的大幅亏损。然而，该股的下跌更多地与投资者从成长型股票中撤出有关，而不是与Sea的基础业务有关。实际上，公司的业务正在蓬勃发展。Sea的数字娱乐部门正从《Free Fire》的成功中赚得盆满钵满，《Free  Fire》是拉丁美洲和东南亚连续6个季度营收最高的手机游戏。这项业务实质上是在补贴该公司专注于数字金融和电子商务的亏损部门。然而，我认为Sea的长期前景对这三项企业都非常有利。Free  Fire仍然是全球手机游戏巨头。Sea的Shopee电子商务平台在东南亚、印度尼西亚等市场处于领先地位，并持续实现强劲的收入增长。该公司的SeaMoney移动钱包也在加速发展。我希望Sea的底线会有所改善，并且我希望它的股价能很好地反弹。Square（SQ.US）Wood最喜欢的股票莫过于Square(NYSE:SQ)。该股是ARK Fintech Innovation ETF持有的最大股票，也是ARK  Innovation ETF和ARK Next Generation Internet  ETF的第二大头寸。但Square的股价较2月份的高点下跌了11%。与Sea  Limited的情况一样，Square的回调主要是市场轮转的结果。尽管该公司的卖家生态系统受到了COVID-19大流行的负面影响，但第四季度出现了改善的迹象。疫苗供应的增加预示着2021年剩余时间的表现将更加强劲。与此同时，Square的现金应用数字钱包仍然是该公司的一个巨大增长故事。今年第四季度，现金应用毛利润同比飙升162%。通过推动相关产品和服务(如现金卡和借记卡)的使用，Square应该能够实现更大的增长。今年3月，随着Square金融服务部门开始银行业务，该公司实现了一个重要的里程碑。在联邦特许银行的保护下，Square将能够为其商业客户提供更多的金融服务。随着时间的推移，这家金融科技巨头可能会扩大其银行服务。从很多方面来看，Square在颠覆金融服务业方面的努力才刚刚起步。它的股价还有很大的上涨空间。Teladoc Health（TDOC.US）在ARK Innovation ETF持股最多的公司中，Teladoc  Health的持股量仅次于Square。这家虚拟护理行业的领军企业是ARK Next Generation Internet  ETF的第四大持仓，在ARK Genomic Revolution  ETF位列第一。尽管Wood很喜欢Teladoc的股票，但其股价已从2月份的高点下跌了近40%。机构投资者将资金从成长型股票上转移，是Teladoc表现不佳的一个原因。然而，该公司也预计2021年第四季度的收入增长将放缓。此外，亚马逊宣布计划于今年夏天进军远程医疗市场。对于这一切，我的回答只是着眼于Teladoc的长期前景。虚拟医疗仍处于早期阶段。McKinsey咨询公司预测，疫情结束后，美国虚拟医疗市场每年将达到2500亿美元。Teladoc的机会也不仅仅局限于美国。我认为，毫无疑问，这是一个足够大的市场，足以支持多个赢家。Teladoc的领先优势、市场占有率(目前其客户占《财富》500强企业的40%以上)，以及产品和服务的范围，使公司具有坚实的竞争优势。2020年，由于大流行，远程医疗需求前所未有地激增，收入增长将有所放缓，这是完全可以理解的。而从长远来看，Teladoc应该能够持续强劲增长。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TDOC":0.9,"SE":0.9,"ARKK":0.9,"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340726931,"gmtCreate":1617496853723,"gmtModify":1704699963835,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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ETF(VOO)$???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7556776091111a542dd7923c8c10d181","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322045965","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323853984,"gmtCreate":1615333489148,"gmtModify":1704781216065,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??????","listText":"??????","text":"??????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323853984","repostId":"2118642236","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2118642236","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615317060,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2118642236?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-10 03:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tesla Sweeps Slump and Soars 20%, Leading EV Sector Higher across the Board","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2118642236","media":"新浪财经","summary":"在投资者的追捧下，特斯拉股价周二止住五连跌，并创一年多来最大涨幅。一连串的积极消息——包括评级上调、比特币上涨、高估值科技股人气普遍改善——将投资者吸引回特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商。马斯克麾下的特斯拉周二一度上涨20%，收复前五天的大部分失地。截至发过，特斯拉报666.82美元。这位分析师在研报中称，New Street的预测暗示特斯拉2023年可取得12美元的每股收益。","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f046df2f1dab410219e9269fbc6b146d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the pursuit of investors,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Shares halted a five-game losing streak on Tuesday and posted their biggest gain in more than a year.</p><p>A string of positive news — including a rating upgrade, a rise in Bitcoin, and a general improvement in sentiment for highly valued tech stocks — has drawn investors back to Tesla and other EV makers.</p><p>Musk's Tesla was up 20% at one point on Tuesday, regaining most of the ground it lost in the previous five days. In the first five days, the company's market value has evaporated by nearly $150 billion at the top. As of posting, Tesla quoted $666.82.</p><p>The stock's previous plunge was seen as a buying opportunity. New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu upgraded Tesla to buy from hold, saying the company has two years of earnings momentum and its demand outlook is stronger than supply.</p><p>The analyst said in the research report that New Street's forecast implies that Tesla can make $12 earnings per share in 2023. According to the data, analysts' average estimate was for earnings of $7.73 per share.</p><p>\"Based on such an earnings revision, we expect the stock to remain at the high end of the 50-100x range, similar to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>levels for nearly a decade, down from 100 times today, \"Ferragu said.</p><p>Other EV makers and suppliers also rose Tuesday, including Nio Motors,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>Workhorse Group Inc., Nikola Corp.,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>And Canoo Inc. Reports that XPeng Motors' fourth-quarter losses narrowed and Nio Motors and XPeng Motors considered secondary listings in Hong Kong also boosted shares of several Chinese companies.</p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Sweeps Slump and Soars 20%, Leading EV Sector Higher across the Board</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Sweeps Slump and Soars 20%, Leading EV Sector Higher across the Board\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-10 03:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f046df2f1dab410219e9269fbc6b146d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the pursuit of investors,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Shares halted a five-game losing streak on Tuesday and posted their biggest gain in more than a year.</p><p>A string of positive news — including a rating upgrade, a rise in Bitcoin, and a general improvement in sentiment for highly valued tech stocks — has drawn investors back to Tesla and other EV makers.</p><p>Musk's Tesla was up 20% at one point on Tuesday, regaining most of the ground it lost in the previous five days. In the first five days, the company's market value has evaporated by nearly $150 billion at the top. As of posting, Tesla quoted $666.82.</p><p>The stock's previous plunge was seen as a buying opportunity. New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu upgraded Tesla to buy from hold, saying the company has two years of earnings momentum and its demand outlook is stronger than supply.</p><p>The analyst said in the research report that New Street's forecast implies that Tesla can make $12 earnings per share in 2023. According to the data, analysts' average estimate was for earnings of $7.73 per share.</p><p>\"Based on such an earnings revision, we expect the stock to remain at the high end of the 50-100x range, similar to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>levels for nearly a decade, down from 100 times today, \"Ferragu said.</p><p>Other EV makers and suppliers also rose Tuesday, including Nio Motors,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>Workhorse Group Inc., Nikola Corp.,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>And Canoo Inc. Reports that XPeng Motors' fourth-quarter losses narrowed and Nio Motors and XPeng Motors considered secondary listings in Hong Kong also boosted shares of several Chinese companies.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202103100311507b58b961&s=b\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/577e499e898d722a6d935282f36956a3","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202103100311507b58b961&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2118642236","content_text":"在投资者的追捧下，特斯拉股价周二止住五连跌，并创一年多来最大涨幅。\n一连串的积极消息——包括评级上调、比特币上涨、高估值科技股人气普遍改善——将投资者吸引回特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商。\n马斯克麾下的特斯拉周二一度上涨20%，收复前五天的大部分失地。在前五天，该公司市值最高蒸发近1500亿美元。截至发过，特斯拉报666.82美元。\n该股此前的暴跌被视为买入机会。New Street Research分析师Pierre Ferragu将特斯拉评级从持有上调至买入，称该公司有两年的盈利势头，其需求前景强于供应。\n这位分析师在研报中称，New Street的预测暗示特斯拉2023年可取得12美元的每股收益。数据显示，分析师的平均预期为每股收益7.73美元。\n“基于这样的收益修正，我们预计该股将保持在50-100倍区间的高端，类似于亚马逊近十年来的水平，低于今天的100倍，”Ferragu说。\n其他电动汽车制造商和供应商周二也上涨，包括蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车、Workhorse Group Inc．、Nikola Corp．、理想汽车和Canoo Inc．。小鹏汽车第四季度亏损收窄、蔚来汽车和小鹏汽车考虑香港二次上市的报道也提振了几家中国公司的股价。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9093841278,"gmtCreate":1643595791743,"gmtModify":1676533834462,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good game👍","listText":"good game👍","text":"good game👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093841278","repostId":"9004448317","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9004448317,"gmtCreate":1642676525258,"gmtModify":1676533734534,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667667103859","idStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"Join Tiger Ski Championship, Win a Bonus of Up to USD 2022","htmlText":"2022 is the Year of Tiger in Chinese lunar calendar, it’s also a special year for Tiger Brokers. To celebrate the special year, we want to invite you to join the ski game presented by Tiger Brokers specially, and it’s very easy and interesting game for users to play. Join the game and win a bonus of up to USD 2022 and limited-edition Tiger Toys Spring Festival and Winter Olympic are both on the way, open your Tiger Trade App and play the ski game with us, win golden medals as many as you can! You could have chance to try Lucky Draw when you win medals.The more medal you win, the bigger bonus you may win! Big Rewards are as follow: <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/happy-new-year/#/\" target=\"_blank\">Click to Join the Game</a>","listText":"2022 is the Year of Tiger in Chinese lunar calendar, it’s also a special year for Tiger Brokers. To celebrate the special year, we want to invite you to join the ski game presented by Tiger Brokers specially, and it’s very easy and interesting game for users to play. Join the game and win a bonus of up to USD 2022 and limited-edition Tiger Toys Spring Festival and Winter Olympic are both on the way, open your Tiger Trade App and play the ski game with us, win golden medals as many as you can! You could have chance to try Lucky Draw when you win medals.The more medal you win, the bigger bonus you may win! Big Rewards are as follow: <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/happy-new-year/#/\" target=\"_blank\">Click to Join the Game</a>","text":"2022 is the Year of Tiger in Chinese lunar calendar, it’s also a special year for Tiger Brokers. To celebrate the special year, we want to invite you to join the ski game presented by Tiger Brokers specially, and it’s very easy and interesting game for users to play. Join the game and win a bonus of up to USD 2022 and limited-edition Tiger Toys Spring Festival and Winter Olympic are both on the way, open your Tiger Trade App and play the ski game with us, win golden medals as many as you can! You could have chance to try Lucky Draw when you win medals.The more medal you win, the bigger bonus you may win! Big Rewards are as follow: Click to Join the Game","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b44fa056439fb4010fa55e163d27c3","width":"750","height":"1726"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004448317","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162804861,"gmtCreate":1624053749453,"gmtModify":1703827579221,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162804861","repostId":"2144572198","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144572198","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1623993218,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144572198?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 13:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Over 2 trillion US stock options decisive battle tonight's \"Four Witch Day\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144572198","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美股今年第二个“四巫日”今晚到来，届时将有超2万亿美元美股期权到期，加上美联储暗示流动性或收紧，此次“四巫日”或许是美股的一个转折点。\n四巫日(Quadruplewitchingday)是指美国市场于","content":"<p>The second \"Four Witches Day\" of U.S. stocks this year will arrive tonight, when more than $2 trillion of U.S. stock options will expire. In addition, the Federal Reserve suggests liquidity or tightening. This \"Four Witches Day\" may be a turning point for U.S. stocks.</p><p>Quadruplewitchingday refers to the maturity and settlement date of derivative financial products in the U.S. market on the third Friday of the quarter (March, June, September and December). Stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures are all due and delivered on the same day. The simultaneous delivery of these four asset classes will bring violent market volatility, with bulls and shorts playing with each other.</p><p><b>Options expiring this Friday include: $240 billion worth of<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVV\">S&P 500 ETF</a>Options, $200 billion in mini S&P 500 futures and $1.8 trillion in S&P 500 options, totaling over $2 trillion.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e084b716c88bd8163b59b6f21fa71734\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As U.S. stocks have been hitting record highs recently, most June open interest prices are expected to be below current spot prices. As shown in the chart below, options with strike prices are most densely distributed around 3900 and 4150. This means that after this Friday, there could be some support around these points until refilled with new gamma.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac0e8bce636a6f73c6b57a18d39a180a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The trading volume of the Four Witches calendar has been very huge,<b>However, what is more noteworthy this time is that the volatility of U.S. stocks was very low before, and the hint of the Fed's liquidity turnaround has already come out.</b></p><p>In the past 13 trading days, the volatility of the S&P 500 index is only 5.1%, which is the lowest volatility since 2019. However, compared with the lifeless market, the volatility of individual stocks is extremely great, especially retail stocks, such as GME and AMC.</p><p>Charlie McElligott of Nomura notes,<b>Very low market volatility coexisting with a large number of bullish gamma options expiring is very dangerous,</b>Because once positions are closed collectively, real volatility may pick up instantaneously. Meanwhile, the rising VIX index futures relative to the S&P 500 Beta indicates that if there is a sell-off in the market, the short gamma position will recover and the market will become more volatile.</p><p>In addition, the Fed's interest rate meeting on Thursday did not indicate immediate tightening of liquidity, but it also admitted that high inflation will not disappear in the short term, which is equivalent to walking a tightrope between pigeons and hawks. But on Friday, it took real action to tighten liquidity.</p><p>On Friday,<b>Sixty-eight counterparties put $756 billion in funds to the Federal Reserve through overnight reverse repurchase instruments, setting a record high of $584 billion.</b>And the day before. The use of the Fed's overnight reverse repo rate is only $520.9 billion. This represents a $235.1 billion increase in the use of the tool in just one day, a whopping 45% increase.</p><p>The effect of the Fed's reverse repurchase is just the opposite of that of China. Simply put, the role of the central bank's reverse repurchase is to release liquidity, while the Fed's reverse repurchase is to recover liquidity. Single-day usage of the Fed's reverse repo vehicle has exceeded $500 billion for seven consecutive trading sessions since it crossed the $500 billion mark for the first time in usage history last Wednesday.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Over 2 trillion US stock options decisive battle tonight's \"Four Witch Day\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOver 2 trillion US stock options decisive battle tonight's \"Four Witch Day\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 13:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The second \"Four Witches Day\" of U.S. stocks this year will arrive tonight, when more than $2 trillion of U.S. stock options will expire. In addition, the Federal Reserve suggests liquidity or tightening. This \"Four Witches Day\" may be a turning point for U.S. stocks.</p><p>Quadruplewitchingday refers to the maturity and settlement date of derivative financial products in the U.S. market on the third Friday of the quarter (March, June, September and December). Stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures are all due and delivered on the same day. The simultaneous delivery of these four asset classes will bring violent market volatility, with bulls and shorts playing with each other.</p><p><b>Options expiring this Friday include: $240 billion worth of<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVV\">S&P 500 ETF</a>Options, $200 billion in mini S&P 500 futures and $1.8 trillion in S&P 500 options, totaling over $2 trillion.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e084b716c88bd8163b59b6f21fa71734\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As U.S. stocks have been hitting record highs recently, most June open interest prices are expected to be below current spot prices. As shown in the chart below, options with strike prices are most densely distributed around 3900 and 4150. This means that after this Friday, there could be some support around these points until refilled with new gamma.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac0e8bce636a6f73c6b57a18d39a180a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The trading volume of the Four Witches calendar has been very huge,<b>However, what is more noteworthy this time is that the volatility of U.S. stocks was very low before, and the hint of the Fed's liquidity turnaround has already come out.</b></p><p>In the past 13 trading days, the volatility of the S&P 500 index is only 5.1%, which is the lowest volatility since 2019. However, compared with the lifeless market, the volatility of individual stocks is extremely great, especially retail stocks, such as GME and AMC.</p><p>Charlie McElligott of Nomura notes,<b>Very low market volatility coexisting with a large number of bullish gamma options expiring is very dangerous,</b>Because once positions are closed collectively, real volatility may pick up instantaneously. Meanwhile, the rising VIX index futures relative to the S&P 500 Beta indicates that if there is a sell-off in the market, the short gamma position will recover and the market will become more volatile.</p><p>In addition, the Fed's interest rate meeting on Thursday did not indicate immediate tightening of liquidity, but it also admitted that high inflation will not disappear in the short term, which is equivalent to walking a tightrope between pigeons and hawks. But on Friday, it took real action to tighten liquidity.</p><p>On Friday,<b>Sixty-eight counterparties put $756 billion in funds to the Federal Reserve through overnight reverse repurchase instruments, setting a record high of $584 billion.</b>And the day before. The use of the Fed's overnight reverse repo rate is only $520.9 billion. This represents a $235.1 billion increase in the use of the tool in just one day, a whopping 45% increase.</p><p>The effect of the Fed's reverse repurchase is just the opposite of that of China. Simply put, the role of the central bank's reverse repurchase is to release liquidity, while the Fed's reverse repurchase is to recover liquidity. Single-day usage of the Fed's reverse repo vehicle has exceeded $500 billion for seven consecutive trading sessions since it crossed the $500 billion mark for the first time in usage history last Wednesday.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be0bdd49975f3ab5453ab8ae8b24f37e","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SVXY":"做空波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF","UVXY":"1.5倍做多短期期货恐慌指数ETF-Proshares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144572198","content_text":"美股今年第二个“四巫日”今晚到来，届时将有超2万亿美元美股期权到期，加上美联储暗示流动性或收紧，此次“四巫日”或许是美股的一个转折点。\n四巫日(Quadruplewitchingday)是指美国市场于季月(三月、六月、九月、十二月)第三个星期五之衍生性金融商品到期结算日，股指期货、股指期权、股票期权以及单一股票期货，都在同一天到期交割。这四种资产类别同时交割会带来剧烈的市场波动，多头空头相互博弈。\n本周五到期的期权包括：价值2400亿美元的标普500指数ETF期权，2000亿美元的迷你标普500指数期货以及1.8万亿美元的标普500指数期权，总计价值超2万亿美元。\n\n由于近期美股一直在创新高，预计大部分6月未平仓合约价格都低于当前的现货价格。如下图所示，行权价在3900和4150附近期权分布最密集。这意味着在本周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的支撑，直到被新的gamma重新填充。\n\n四巫日历来成交量都非常巨大，但此次更值得注意的点是，此前美股波动率非常低，另外美联储流动性转折的暗示已经出来了。\n过去13个交易日，标普500指数波动率仅有5.1%，这是自2019年以来最低的波动率，但是与大盘死气沉沉相比，个股的波动性却极大，特别是散户抱团股，如GME和AMC等。\n野村证券的Charlie McElligott指出，极低的大盘波动率与大量看涨gamma期权到期并存非常危险，因为一旦头寸集体平仓，实际波动率可能会瞬间回升。同时，VIX指数期货相对于标普500指数Beta值不断上升，这表明，如果市场出现抛售，空头gamma仓位会回升，市场将变得更加不稳定。\n另外，周四的美联储议息会议并没有表示立即收紧流动性，但是也承认了通胀高企短期不会消失，相当于在鸽、鹰派之间走钢丝。但是周五却实实在在行动开始收紧流动性。\n周五，68家对手方通过隔夜逆回购工具将7560亿美元资金放到美联储，刷新了5840亿美元的纪录高位。而前一天。美联储的隔夜逆回购率的使用规模仅为5209亿美元。这意味着，在短短一天时间内，该工具的使用量增加了2351亿美元，增幅高达45%。\n美联储逆回购功效和中国刚刚相反，简单来说，我国央行逆回购的作用是为了释放流动性，而美联储逆回购则是为了收回流动性。自上周三用量史上首次突破5000亿美元大关以来，美联储逆回购工具的单日用量已连续七个交易日超过5000亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"VIXmain":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"VIXY":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SVXY":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"UVXY":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196351528,"gmtCreate":1621029881264,"gmtModify":1704352073045,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VOO\">$Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF(VOO)$</a>????","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VOO\">$Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF(VOO)$</a>????","text":"$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30c5ac401beb271df4f8be2b542614d6","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/196351528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340980125,"gmtCreate":1617330085667,"gmtModify":1704698843303,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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Corp(O)$</a>????","text":"$Realty Income Corp(O)$????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5afd21fae3a575cd0650c42c379027ec","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377456128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345086501,"gmtCreate":1618265491803,"gmtModify":1704708229561,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345086501","repostId":"1140947470","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140947470","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618241247,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140947470?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 23:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Investment bank says Tesla will conquer trillion-dollar market, sharply hikes price target","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140947470","media":"新浪财经","summary":"到2025年，特斯拉的能源生产和储能部门将产生80亿美元的收入。","content":"<p>Canaccord Genuity, a well-known Canadian investment bank, said that with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The company steps up its focus on energy production and storage businesses, and the company known for its electric vehicles is bound to \"attack and conquer\" another trillion-dollar market.</p><p>Analyst Jed Dorsheimer upgraded Tesla stock to buy from hold and gave it one of Wall Street's highest price targets. He predicts that Tesla's energy production and storage division will generate $8 billion in revenue by 2025.</p><p>In a note to customers on Monday, Dorsheime said: \"Tesla is rapidly creating a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Energy product ecosystem. \" He raised his price target on Tesla to $1,071 from $419, meaning he expects the stock to rise nearly 60%. Tesla shares have risen nearly fivefold in the past year.</p><p>The analyst said Tesla is using all available resources to meet battery demand, including in-house production at its Fremont plant, with partners<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PC\">Panasonic</a>Manufactured in Nevada, as well as a supply agreement with LG Chem. He said the company will be able to meet demand for its Powerwall home energy storage devices as supply constraints ease. This storage device is typically used in conjunction with a solar installation.</p><p>Dorsheimer's price target values Tesla stock and net debt at 63 times his 2024 earnings forecast for the company. That's three times the average valuation of a group of competitors, he said.</p><p>\"While a high valuation was given, we also believe Tesla has a lead for several years and is now aggressively moving into energy storage, so we think the valuation we gave is reasonable,\" the analyst wrote.</p><p>Dorsheimer is not yet the most bullish Tesla analyst. Ark Invest Management said last month that the company's Cathie Wood expects Tesla shares to reach $3,000 by 2025.</p>","source":"XLCJ","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investment bank says Tesla will conquer trillion-dollar market, sharply hikes price target</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestment bank says Tesla will conquer trillion-dollar market, sharply hikes price target\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-12 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Canaccord Genuity, a well-known Canadian investment bank, said that with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The company steps up its focus on energy production and storage businesses, and the company known for its electric vehicles is bound to \"attack and conquer\" another trillion-dollar market.</p><p>Analyst Jed Dorsheimer upgraded Tesla stock to buy from hold and gave it one of Wall Street's highest price targets. He predicts that Tesla's energy production and storage division will generate $8 billion in revenue by 2025.</p><p>In a note to customers on Monday, Dorsheime said: \"Tesla is rapidly creating a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Energy product ecosystem. \" He raised his price target on Tesla to $1,071 from $419, meaning he expects the stock to rise nearly 60%. Tesla shares have risen nearly fivefold in the past year.</p><p>The analyst said Tesla is using all available resources to meet battery demand, including in-house production at its Fremont plant, with partners<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PC\">Panasonic</a>Manufactured in Nevada, as well as a supply agreement with LG Chem. He said the company will be able to meet demand for its Powerwall home energy storage devices as supply constraints ease. This storage device is typically used in conjunction with a solar installation.</p><p>Dorsheimer's price target values Tesla stock and net debt at 63 times his 2024 earnings forecast for the company. That's three times the average valuation of a group of competitors, he said.</p><p>\"While a high valuation was given, we also believe Tesla has a lead for several years and is now aggressively moving into energy storage, so we think the valuation we gave is reasonable,\" the analyst wrote.</p><p>Dorsheimer is not yet the most bullish Tesla analyst. Ark Invest Management said last month that the company's Cathie Wood expects Tesla shares to reach $3,000 by 2025.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-04-12/doc-ikmxzfmk6437611.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ba18e4c173130d8ec828f5035d30189","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-04-12/doc-ikmxzfmk6437611.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140947470","content_text":"加拿大知名投行Canaccord Genuity表示，随着特斯拉公司加强对能源生产和储能业务的关注，这家以电动汽车闻名的公司必将“攻击并征服”另一个规模达万亿美元的市场。分析师Jed Dorsheimer将特斯拉股票评级从持有上调至买入，并给予其华尔街最高目标价之一。他预测，到2025年，特斯拉的能源生产和储能部门将产生80亿美元的收入。Dorsheime在周一给客户的一份报告中说：“特斯拉正在迅速创建一个苹果式的能源产品生态系统。”他将其对特斯拉的目标价从419美元上调至1071美元，意味着他预计该股将上涨接近60%。在过去一年中，特斯拉股价已上涨近五倍。这位分析师表示，特斯拉正在利用所有可用资源来满足电池需求，包括其弗里蒙特工厂的内部生产， 与合作伙伴松下在内华达州生产，以及与LG化学签订供应协议。他说，随着供应紧张状况缓解，该公司将能够满足对其Powerwall家用储能设备的需求。该存储设备通常与太阳能装置配合使用。Dorsheimer的价格目标对特斯拉股票和净债务的估值为他对2024年该公司盈利预测的63倍。他说，这是一组竞争对手的平均估值的三倍。这位分析师写道：“虽然给出了高估值，但我们也相信特斯拉拥有数年的领先优势，并且现在正积极进军储能领域，因此我们认为我们给出的估值是合理的。”Dorsheimer还不是最看好的特斯拉的分析师。Ark Invest Management上个月表示，该公司的Cathie Wood预计特斯拉股价到2025年将达到3，000美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322045965,"gmtCreate":1615759570357,"gmtModify":1704786086065,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VOO\">$Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF(VOO)$</a>???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VOO\">$Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF(VOO)$</a>???","text":"$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7556776091111a542dd7923c8c10d181","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322045965","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100709511,"gmtCreate":1619647798833,"gmtModify":1704727198837,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O\">$Realty Income Corp(O)$</a>????","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O\">$Realty Income Corp(O)$</a>????","text":"$Realty Income Corp(O)$????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9045f37a6299dedf9992a1ce4b741abe","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/100709511","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}