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Tonyseng

长期投资者的小白菜…

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2022-01-31

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2021-06-19

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Over 2 trillion U.S. stock options decisive battle tonight's "Four Witches Day"

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Join the game and win a bonus of up to USD 2022 and limited-edition Tiger Toys Spring Festival and Winter Olympic are both on the way, open your Tiger Trade App and play the ski game with us, win golden medals as many as you can! You could have chance to try Lucky Draw when you win medals.The more medal you win, the bigger bonus you may win! Big Rewards are as follow: Click to Join the Game","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b44fa056439fb4010fa55e163d27c3","width":"750","height":"1726"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004448317","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4027,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162804861,"gmtCreate":1624053749453,"gmtModify":1703827579221,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162804861","repostId":"2144572198","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144572198","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1623993218,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144572198?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 13:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Over 2 trillion U.S. stock options decisive battle tonight's \"Four Witches Day\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144572198","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美股今年第二个“四巫日”今晚到来，届时将有超2万亿美元美股期权到期，加上美联储暗示流动性或收紧，此次“四巫日”或许是美股的一个转折点。\n四巫日(Quadruplewitchingday)是指美国市场于","content":"<p>The second \"Four Witches Day\" of U.S. stocks this year is coming tonight, when more than $2 trillion in U.S. stock options will expire. In addition, the Federal Reserve has hinted that liquidity may tighten. This \"Four Witches Day\" may be a turning point for U.S. stocks..</p><p>Quadruplewitchingday refers to the maturity and settlement date of derivative financial products in the U.S. market on the third Friday of the quarter (March, June, September, December). Stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire for delivery on the same day. Simultaneous delivery of these four asset classes will bring violent market volatility, with long and short positions playing against each other.</p><p><b>Options expiring this Friday include: $240 billion worth of<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVV\">S&P 500 Index ETF</a>Options, $200 billion mini S&P 500 futures and $1.8 trillion S&P 500 options, are worth more than $2 trillion in total.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e084b716c88bd8163b59b6f21fa71734\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As U.S. stocks have been hitting new highs recently, most open interest prices in June are expected to be lower than current spot prices. As shown in the figure below, options are most densely distributed with strike prices around 3900 and 4150. This means there may be some support around these points after this Friday until they are refilled with a new gamma.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac0e8bce636a6f73c6b57a18d39a180a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The trading volume of the four witches is very huge in the calendar,<b>But what is more noteworthy this time is that the volatility of U.S. stocks was very low before, and hints of the Fed's liquidity turning point have already come out.</b></p><p>In the past 13 trading days, the volatility of the S&P 500 index was only 5.1%, which is the lowest volatility since 2019. However, compared with the dead market, the volatility of individual stocks is extremely high, especially retail group stocks, such as GME and AMC, etc.</p><p>Charlie McElligott of Nomura Securities pointed out,<b>It is very dangerous to coexist with extremely low market volatility and a large number of bullish gamma options expiring.</b>Because once the positions are collectively closed, the actual volatility may rebound instantly. At the same time, VIX futures are rising relative to the S&P 500 Beta, suggesting that if the market sells off, short gamma positions will pick up and the market will become more volatile.</p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on Thursday did not indicate an immediate tightening of liquidity, but also admitted that high inflation will not disappear in the short term, which is equivalent to walking a tightrope between doves and hawks. But on Friday, real action began to tighten liquidity.</p><p>Friday,<b>68 counterparties put $756 billion in funds to the Federal Reserve through overnight reverse repurchase facilities, setting a record high of $584 billion.</b>And the day before. The use of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase rate is only $520.9 billion. This means that the tool's usage increased by $235.1 billion in just one day, a whopping 45% increase.</p><p>The effect of the Fed's reverse repurchase is just the opposite of that of China. Simply put, the role of my country's central bank's reverse repurchase is to release liquidity, while the Fed's reverse repurchase is to recover liquidity. Since last Wednesday, it exceeded the $500 billion mark for the first time in history, the single-day usage of the Fed's reverse repurchase facility has exceeded $500 billion for seven consecutive trading days.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Over 2 trillion U.S. stock options decisive battle tonight's \"Four Witches Day\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOver 2 trillion U.S. stock options decisive battle tonight's \"Four Witches Day\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 13:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The second \"Four Witches Day\" of U.S. stocks this year is coming tonight, when more than $2 trillion in U.S. stock options will expire. In addition, the Federal Reserve has hinted that liquidity may tighten. This \"Four Witches Day\" may be a turning point for U.S. stocks..</p><p>Quadruplewitchingday refers to the maturity and settlement date of derivative financial products in the U.S. market on the third Friday of the quarter (March, June, September, December). Stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire for delivery on the same day. Simultaneous delivery of these four asset classes will bring violent market volatility, with long and short positions playing against each other.</p><p><b>Options expiring this Friday include: $240 billion worth of<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVV\">S&P 500 Index ETF</a>Options, $200 billion mini S&P 500 futures and $1.8 trillion S&P 500 options, are worth more than $2 trillion in total.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e084b716c88bd8163b59b6f21fa71734\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As U.S. stocks have been hitting new highs recently, most open interest prices in June are expected to be lower than current spot prices. As shown in the figure below, options are most densely distributed with strike prices around 3900 and 4150. This means there may be some support around these points after this Friday until they are refilled with a new gamma.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac0e8bce636a6f73c6b57a18d39a180a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The trading volume of the four witches is very huge in the calendar,<b>But what is more noteworthy this time is that the volatility of U.S. stocks was very low before, and hints of the Fed's liquidity turning point have already come out.</b></p><p>In the past 13 trading days, the volatility of the S&P 500 index was only 5.1%, which is the lowest volatility since 2019. However, compared with the dead market, the volatility of individual stocks is extremely high, especially retail group stocks, such as GME and AMC, etc.</p><p>Charlie McElligott of Nomura Securities pointed out,<b>It is very dangerous to coexist with extremely low market volatility and a large number of bullish gamma options expiring.</b>Because once the positions are collectively closed, the actual volatility may rebound instantly. At the same time, VIX futures are rising relative to the S&P 500 Beta, suggesting that if the market sells off, short gamma positions will pick up and the market will become more volatile.</p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on Thursday did not indicate an immediate tightening of liquidity, but also admitted that high inflation will not disappear in the short term, which is equivalent to walking a tightrope between doves and hawks. But on Friday, real action began to tighten liquidity.</p><p>Friday,<b>68 counterparties put $756 billion in funds to the Federal Reserve through overnight reverse repurchase facilities, setting a record high of $584 billion.</b>And the day before. The use of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase rate is only $520.9 billion. This means that the tool's usage increased by $235.1 billion in just one day, a whopping 45% increase.</p><p>The effect of the Fed's reverse repurchase is just the opposite of that of China. Simply put, the role of my country's central bank's reverse repurchase is to release liquidity, while the Fed's reverse repurchase is to recover liquidity. Since last Wednesday, it exceeded the $500 billion mark for the first time in history, the single-day usage of the Fed's reverse repurchase facility has exceeded $500 billion for seven consecutive trading days.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be0bdd49975f3ab5453ab8ae8b24f37e","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UVXY":"1.5倍做多短期期货恐慌指数ETF-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SVXY":"做空波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144572198","content_text":"美股今年第二个“四巫日”今晚到来，届时将有超2万亿美元美股期权到期，加上美联储暗示流动性或收紧，此次“四巫日”或许是美股的一个转折点。\n四巫日(Quadruplewitchingday)是指美国市场于季月(三月、六月、九月、十二月)第三个星期五之衍生性金融商品到期结算日，股指期货、股指期权、股票期权以及单一股票期货，都在同一天到期交割。这四种资产类别同时交割会带来剧烈的市场波动，多头空头相互博弈。\n本周五到期的期权包括：价值2400亿美元的标普500指数ETF期权，2000亿美元的迷你标普500指数期货以及1.8万亿美元的标普500指数期权，总计价值超2万亿美元。\n\n由于近期美股一直在创新高，预计大部分6月未平仓合约价格都低于当前的现货价格。如下图所示，行权价在3900和4150附近期权分布最密集。这意味着在本周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的支撑，直到被新的gamma重新填充。\n\n四巫日历来成交量都非常巨大，但此次更值得注意的点是，此前美股波动率非常低，另外美联储流动性转折的暗示已经出来了。\n过去13个交易日，标普500指数波动率仅有5.1%，这是自2019年以来最低的波动率，但是与大盘死气沉沉相比，个股的波动性却极大，特别是散户抱团股，如GME和AMC等。\n野村证券的Charlie McElligott指出，极低的大盘波动率与大量看涨gamma期权到期并存非常危险，因为一旦头寸集体平仓，实际波动率可能会瞬间回升。同时，VIX指数期货相对于标普500指数Beta值不断上升，这表明，如果市场出现抛售，空头gamma仓位会回升，市场将变得更加不稳定。\n另外，周四的美联储议息会议并没有表示立即收紧流动性，但是也承认了通胀高企短期不会消失，相当于在鸽、鹰派之间走钢丝。但是周五却实实在在行动开始收紧流动性。\n周五，68家对手方通过隔夜逆回购工具将7560亿美元资金放到美联储，刷新了5840亿美元的纪录高位。而前一天。美联储的隔夜逆回购率的使用规模仅为5209亿美元。这意味着，在短短一天时间内，该工具的使用量增加了2351亿美元，增幅高达45%。\n美联储逆回购功效和中国刚刚相反，简单来说，我国央行逆回购的作用是为了释放流动性，而美联储逆回购则是为了收回流动性。自上周三用量史上首次突破5000亿美元大关以来，美联储逆回购工具的单日用量已连续七个交易日超过5000亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"VIXmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SVXY":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"QLD":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"VIXY":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UVXY":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4048,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196351528,"gmtCreate":1621029881264,"gmtModify":1704352073045,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VOO\">$Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF(VOO)$</a>????","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VOO\">$Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF(VOO)$</a>????","text":"$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30c5ac401beb271df4f8be2b542614d6","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/196351528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198347874,"gmtCreate":1620940529298,"gmtModify":1704350710230,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"omg??‍♂️","listText":"omg??‍♂️","text":"omg??‍♂️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198347874","repostId":"1124198478","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124198478","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620917329,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124198478?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 22:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Ali fell nearly 5% intraday, and its stock price fell to its lowest level since July last year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124198478","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四，阿里巴巴盘中跌近5%，股价低见209.50美元，较去年10月创下的峰值下跌了30％以上，目前股价为去年7月份以来最低。消息面上，阿里巴巴今日公布了2021财年四季度及全年财报。公司四季度经营亏损","content":"<p>Thursday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell nearly 5% intraday, and the stock price hit as low as $209.50, down more than 30% from the peak set in October last year. The current stock price is the lowest since July last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b300acd6dc2868d9f4b9814b67022715\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of news, Alibaba today announced its financial report for the fourth quarter and full year of fiscal year 2021. The company's operating loss in the fourth quarter was 7.663 billion, the first quarterly loss since Ali went public. The company said the losses were mainly affected by fines from antitrust investigations. Excluding this one-time impact, the company's operating profit was RMB 10.565 billion, a year-on-year increase of 48%.</p><p><b>Click to view:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1195138527\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Alibaba Group Fourth Quarter and Full-year Performance Report for Fiscal Year 2021</b></a></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ali fell nearly 5% intraday, and its stock price fell to its lowest level since July last year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAli fell nearly 5% intraday, and its stock price fell to its lowest level since July last year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-13 22:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Thursday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell nearly 5% intraday, and the stock price hit as low as $209.50, down more than 30% from the peak set in October last year. The current stock price is the lowest since July last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b300acd6dc2868d9f4b9814b67022715\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of news, Alibaba today announced its financial report for the fourth quarter and full year of fiscal year 2021. The company's operating loss in the fourth quarter was 7.663 billion, the first quarterly loss since Ali went public. The company said the losses were mainly affected by fines from antitrust investigations. Excluding this one-time impact, the company's operating profit was RMB 10.565 billion, a year-on-year increase of 48%.</p><p><b>Click to view:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1195138527\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Alibaba Group Fourth Quarter and Full-year Performance Report for Fiscal Year 2021</b></a></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca2161e8ddb469de4171b1fb09459c6b","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124198478","content_text":"周四，阿里巴巴盘中跌近5%，股价低见209.50美元，较去年10月创下的峰值下跌了30％以上，目前股价为去年7月份以来最低。消息面上，阿里巴巴今日公布了2021财年四季度及全年财报。公司四季度经营亏损76.63亿，为阿里上市以来的首次季度亏损。公司称亏损主要受反垄断调查的罚款影响。剔除该一次性影响，公司的经营利润为人民币105.65亿元，同比增长48%。点击查看：阿里巴巴集团2021财年四季度及全年业绩报告","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193700638,"gmtCreate":1620815650124,"gmtModify":1704348815700,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/193700638","repostId":"1123721888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123721888","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620812439,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123721888?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-12 17:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tiger Securities was included in the MSCI China All-Stock Index!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123721888","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"此次被纳入MSCI意味着国际资本市场对老虎证券的认可和信心！","content":"<p>According to news on May 11, the international index compilation company MSCI announced the quarterly adjustment results of the index in May. Among them,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Securities</a>Included in the MSCI China All Shares Index (MSCI China All Shares Index) will take effect after the market closes on May 27.</p><p>Wu Tianhua, founder and CEO of Tiger Securities, said: \"Tiger Securities' inclusion in the MSCI China All-Stock Index represents the recognition and confidence of the international market in our long-term investment value and development prospects. Tiger Securities' mission is to make investment better with technology. Through continuous technological iteration, we are committed to providing investors with a more efficient, convenient and smooth one-stop global investment experience. As Tiger enters Singapore, the United States and other countries and regions, we look forward to serving more global users. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cac618ec6413c15fd5aad09ee702621\" tg-width=\"405\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MSCI (morgan stanley capital international) is currently the most important index company in the world. It compiles hundreds of indexes in various markets around the world, and is used as an investment benchmark and tracked by a large number of international institutions and investors. Since the release of the first index in 1969, MSCI has mainly provided products and services such as indexes, risk portfolios and performance analysis tools, and corporate governance tools according to different countries and regions, market sizes, industries and investment methods. About US $10 trillion in the world's assets are benchmarked against the MSCI index, and 97 of the world's top 100 largest asset managers are MSCI clients. The pension of 95% of the investment equity in the United States is benchmarked on MSCI.</p><p>The MSCI China All Shares Index, compiled by MSCI, is the most important component of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. According to the adjustment method of MSCI index, companies that can be included in its index system generally have to meet a series of requirements such as total market value, free circulation market value, liquidity and trading hours.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8f2f148520e460cb20ee263c4b5fd2f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MSCI official site</span></p><p>Historical performance of MSCI China All Shares Index:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5df675372dbd49e16da8a583e0f650\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to the quarterly adjustment results released by MSCI, the MSCI China All-Stock Index added 60 new stocks this time and excluded 26 stocks. So, what does being on the list mean for tigers?</p><p>It means that the recognition and confidence of Tiger Securities in the international capital market will help further expand the company's influence in the international capital market and enhance the internationalization level of the company's shareholders.</p><p>According to MSCI estimates, trillions of dollars of funds around the world track emerging market indexes, including both active funds and passive funds. Passive funds use morgan stanley capital international China All-Stock Index as their investment target. When stocks are included in the index, passive investors will allocate these new constituent stocks in proportion.</p><p>View for details:</p><p><a href=\"https://www.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_May21_ChinaAllShares_PublicList.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">MSCI China Index Constituent Stock Adjustment Description</a></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tiger Securities was included in the MSCI China All-Stock Index!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTiger Securities was included in the MSCI China All-Stock Index!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-12 17:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to news on May 11, the international index compilation company MSCI announced the quarterly adjustment results of the index in May. Among them,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Securities</a>Included in the MSCI China All Shares Index (MSCI China All Shares Index) will take effect after the market closes on May 27.</p><p>Wu Tianhua, founder and CEO of Tiger Securities, said: \"Tiger Securities' inclusion in the MSCI China All-Stock Index represents the recognition and confidence of the international market in our long-term investment value and development prospects. Tiger Securities' mission is to make investment better with technology. Through continuous technological iteration, we are committed to providing investors with a more efficient, convenient and smooth one-stop global investment experience. As Tiger enters Singapore, the United States and other countries and regions, we look forward to serving more global users. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cac618ec6413c15fd5aad09ee702621\" tg-width=\"405\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MSCI (morgan stanley capital international) is currently the most important index company in the world. It compiles hundreds of indexes in various markets around the world, and is used as an investment benchmark and tracked by a large number of international institutions and investors. Since the release of the first index in 1969, MSCI has mainly provided products and services such as indexes, risk portfolios and performance analysis tools, and corporate governance tools according to different countries and regions, market sizes, industries and investment methods. About US $10 trillion in the world's assets are benchmarked against the MSCI index, and 97 of the world's top 100 largest asset managers are MSCI clients. The pension of 95% of the investment equity in the United States is benchmarked on MSCI.</p><p>The MSCI China All Shares Index, compiled by MSCI, is the most important component of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. According to the adjustment method of MSCI index, companies that can be included in its index system generally have to meet a series of requirements such as total market value, free circulation market value, liquidity and trading hours.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8f2f148520e460cb20ee263c4b5fd2f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MSCI official site</span></p><p>Historical performance of MSCI China All Shares Index:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5df675372dbd49e16da8a583e0f650\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to the quarterly adjustment results released by MSCI, the MSCI China All-Stock Index added 60 new stocks this time and excluded 26 stocks. So, what does being on the list mean for tigers?</p><p>It means that the recognition and confidence of Tiger Securities in the international capital market will help further expand the company's influence in the international capital market and enhance the internationalization level of the company's shareholders.</p><p>According to MSCI estimates, trillions of dollars of funds around the world track emerging market indexes, including both active funds and passive funds. Passive funds use morgan stanley capital international China All-Stock Index as their investment target. When stocks are included in the index, passive investors will allocate these new constituent stocks in proportion.</p><p>View for details:</p><p><a href=\"https://www.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_May21_ChinaAllShares_PublicList.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">MSCI China Index Constituent Stock Adjustment Description</a></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e4b807dafecc161ebbd0d3c42055f20","relate_stocks":{"TIGR":"老虎证券"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123721888","content_text":"5月11日消息，国际指数编制公司MSCI公布5月指数季度调整结果，其中，老虎证券获纳入MSCI中国全股票指数（MSCI China All Shares Index），将于5月27日收盘后生效。老虎证券创始人及CEO巫天华表示：“老虎证券获纳入MSCI中国全股票指数代表国际市场对我们长期投资价值和发展前景的认可和信心。老虎证券的使命是科技让投资更美好。通过不断技术迭代，我们致力于为投资者提供更高效、便捷、流畅的一站式全球投资体验。随着老虎进入新加坡，美国等国家和地区，我们期待服务更多全球用户。”MSCI（明晟）是目前全球最重要的指数公司，编制数百种全球各个市场的指数，被大量国际机构，投资者作为投资基准并跟踪。从 1969年发布第一只指数至今，MSCI按照国家和区域、市场规模大小、行业及投资方式的不同，主要提供指数、风险组合和业绩分析工具以及公司治理工具等产品和服务。全球约10万亿美元的资产以MSCI指数为基准，全球前100个最大资产管理者中，97个都是MSCI的客户。美国95%的投资权益的养老金以MSCI为基准。MSCI中国全股票指数(MSCI China All Shares Index)由摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)编制，是 MSCI新兴市场指数中最重要的组成部分。根据 MSCI指数的调整方法，能被纳入到其指数体系的公司一般要满足总市值、自由流通市值、流动性和交易时间等一系列要求。MSCI官网明晟中国全股票指数(MSCI China All Shares Index)历史表现：根据MSCI发布的季度调整结果， MSCI中国全股票指数本次新增60只个股，剔除26只股票。那么，上榜对于老虎意味着什么呢？意味着国际资本市场对老虎证券的认可和信心，有助于进一步扩大公司国际资本市场影响力、提升公司股东国际化水平。据 MSCI估算，全球数以万亿美元的资金跟踪新兴市场指数，其中既包含了主动型资金，又包含了被动型基金，被动型资金以明晟中国全股票指数作为投资标的。当股票被纳入指数后，被动型投资者会按比例配置新增这些成份股。详情查看：MSCI中国指数成分股调整说明","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TIGR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3048,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107703362,"gmtCreate":1620534780856,"gmtModify":1704344727141,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O\">$Realty Income Corp(O)$</a>???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O\">$Realty Income Corp(O)$</a>???","text":"$Realty Income Corp(O)$???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a3e477b0a5c49831ae62c4a529c115","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/107703362","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102754875,"gmtCreate":1620256432297,"gmtModify":1704340755621,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/102754875","repostId":"2133525567","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101513785,"gmtCreate":1619922228447,"gmtModify":1704336377482,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O\">$Realty Income Corp(O)$</a>??","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O\">$Realty Income Corp(O)$</a>??","text":"$Realty Income Corp(O)$??","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c1c74ebd41f9aa1e3bd632776e5351f","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/101513785","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100709511,"gmtCreate":1619647798833,"gmtModify":1704727198837,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O\">$Realty Income Corp(O)$</a>????","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O\">$Realty Income Corp(O)$</a>????","text":"$Realty Income Corp(O)$????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9045f37a6299dedf9992a1ce4b741abe","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/100709511","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377456128,"gmtCreate":1619561516664,"gmtModify":1704725799670,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O\">$Realty Income Corp(O)$</a>????","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O\">$Realty Income Corp(O)$</a>????","text":"$Realty Income Corp(O)$????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5afd21fae3a575cd0650c42c379027ec","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377456128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372672978,"gmtCreate":1619215918394,"gmtModify":1704721304165,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??‍♂️??‍♂️","listText":"??‍♂️??‍♂️","text":"??‍♂️??‍♂️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372672978","repostId":"2129350241","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129350241","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619190546,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2129350241?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-23 23:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Will Biden's tax increase on the rich end the bull market in US stocks?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129350241","media":"金融界","summary":"昨晚，美股再一次给拜登加税这头灰犀牛撞了一下腰，三大股指盘中集体快速跳水，最终收跌近1%。\n美股的跌幅看似不大，但弥漫在整个华尔街上空的担忧情绪越积越浓厚，并蔓延到了其他资产价格。\n美国十年期国债收益","content":"<p>Last night, the U.S. stock market once again hit the waist of the gray rhinoceros that raised taxes on Biden. The three major stock indexes collectively plunged rapidly during the session, and finally closed down nearly 1%.</p><p>The decline in U.S. stocks may seem modest, but the worries pervading Wall Street have accumulated and spread to other asset prices.</p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield also fell from an intraday high to 1.54%, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield also hit its lowest point since March.</p><p>The decline of cryptocurrency was even bleak. Bitcoin plummeted in response, even falling below the low point of last week's plunge. Bitcoin fell below the $49,000 mark. Today, it fell by more than 12%. Data shows that tens of billions of yuan have been liquidated.</p><p>Although the domestic Hong Kong A-stock market is booming, it is certainly gratifying. However, as the center of gravity of global financial assets, the United States cannot pay too much attention to the current new situation in the United States.</p><p>When Trump and Biden were campaigning, Trump directly stated that if Biden entered the White House, it would bring \"the largest (magnitude) tax increase in history\" to the United States. Today, it seems that Trump is not talking nonsense. However, he also made it clear, \"Then you will see a Great Depression like you have never seen before, and you will have to go back to 1929. There is nothing worse than that.\"</p><p>Will Trump's prediction come true?</p><p><h3>1</h3><h3>The largest tax in American history</h3>Large-scale economic stimulus plans and large-scale tax increases are promises clearly made by Biden during the campaign, and regardless of whether it can be implemented in the future, he is indeed \"handing in homework\" to the bulls he has bragged before.</p><p>Increasing taxes on the rich is only part of the plan. Based on the information released one after another last month, the Biden administration's tax increase plan probably has several aspects:</p><p>1. Increase the federal corporate income tax from 21% to 28%;</p><p>2. Impose a minimum tax rate of 15% on companies with annual revenue exceeding $2 billion;</p><p>3. The income tax rate for the rich with an annual income of over US $400,000 will be restored to 39.6%, and the 20% pre-tax deduction will be cancelled, and the deduction ceiling will be set to no more than 28%, superimposed on the existing investment income surtax, which means that the tax rate may be as high as 43.4%, and the capital gains tax rate in high-tax states may even exceed 50%;</p><p>4. Increase the minimum tax rate of multinational companies. The minimum tax rate of enterprises with global book revenue exceeding USD 1 million will be increased to 15%, and the tax rate of overseas branches in the United States will be increased from 10.5% to 21%;</p><p>5. Increase the capital gains tax of the rich. For example, if you sell cryptocurrency after holding it for more than one year, you will face the risk of capital gains tax;</p><p>6. Social security for high-income people is levied at 12.4%.</p><p>If the above plans can be roughly realized, it will be the largest federal tax increase since 1942.</p><p>The purpose of these tax increases is naturally to fill a small part, including the trillions of economic stimulus plans he signed since he took office, and various pits left by the Trump era, so as to try to save the fiscal deficit that the United States is currently flying fast and uncontrollable.</p><p>Since Biden took office, the US $1.9 trillion epidemic relief stimulus package and the US $2.25 trillion infrastructure and employment support plan passed, plus the two special budgets of US $2 trillion and US $880 billion passed by Congress last year, the United States has released water. It has already exceeded 5 trillion yuan, which is equivalent to using more than 25% of US GDP to stimulate the economy.</p><p>At present, the balance of U.S. federal debt has reached less than $30 trillion, more than 130% of its GDP.</p><p>It can be said that the current economic prosperity of the United States is actually more supported by the huge amount of liquidity that is continuously released. In addition to the trillions of economic stimulus plans, it also includes stimulating the demand side through direct distribution of money. The consequence of this strong medicine is a rapid increase in the fiscal deficit.</p><p>But even so, the current economic situation in the United States is still full of problems.</p><p>In the history of the United States, such a large-scale tax on enterprises and the rich was actually not the Great Depression in 1929 (the era of the 31st President Hoover) as Trump said, but the beginning of the new President Franklin Roosevelt after the Great Depression to implement the \"New Deal\" to deal with the Great Depression. So Trump is ambiguous and carrying private goods.</p><p>In fact, Trump is more like the lavish President Hoover than Biden.</p><p>When Franklin Roosevelt was appointed in danger, he had to impose high taxes in the face of the debt left by former President Hoover. His top federal corporate tax rate was raised from 63% to 94% during his term, and it has been maintained for a long time thereafter.</p><p>It is difficult for us to give a fair evaluation of the effect of Roosevelt's New Deal. Although it alleviated the fiscal deficit problem of the United States to a certain extent, it also caused strong opposition and confrontation from the business circles at that time. In the end, in actual implementation, the effect of taxing the rich is not too obvious.</p><p>At the same time, Roosevelt's New Deal also created a new mode of state intervention in economic development. Capitalism bid farewell to the era of laissez-faire policy and ushered in the era of Keynesian government intervention in economic behavior.</p><p><h3>2</h3><h3>Does raising taxes on the rich really work?</h3>In the magical year of 2020 last year, or until now, the United States relied on making money to survive under the impact of the severe epidemic, but the capital market in the United States was extremely prosperous, causing the wealth of the top 1% of the richest people in the United States to increase instead of decreasing. Increase more than $1 trillion in wealth.</p><p>For example, the richest man in the world<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Founder Bezos's wealth soared by nearly 80%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Musk's wealth has increased by more than 7 times and so on.</p><p>So, Biden's motivation to tax the rich can be said to be great.</p><p>According to the calculation of Biden's tax increase plan, if the above-mentioned tax increase policy can be effectively implemented, it will bring a total of US $2.1 trillion in revenue to the US finance, which can basically cover the cost of the 2.25 trillion infrastructure plan implemented.</p><p>But just because the abacus is loud, it doesn't mean that you can collect money.</p><p>The experience and lessons of successive American presidents have proved that in capitalist countries, increasing taxes on capitalists who control the right to speak is simply seeking skin from a tiger, which is not only difficult, but even life-threatening.</p><p>Although taxing the rich has won the approval of ordinary Americans under the increasingly intensifying contradiction between the rich and the poor, there are still many uncertainties about the passing of the proposal announced by Biden next week.</p><p>First of all, the current tax increase policy is very controversial in the United States. As a bitter rival, any form of tax increase by the Democratic Biden administration is unlikely to be supported by the Republican Party. In particular, the current tax increase policy of the Democratic Party is obviously opposite to the direction of the Trump administration. Agreeing with Biden is undoubtedly tantamount to a slap in the face.</p><p>Not to mention that the process of finally passing the bill will be very long. At present, the bipartisan pattern in the Senate is 50 to 50. If some Democratic members defect, the final tax increase plan will be suspended. Earlier, I heard that three members of parliament stated that they would not support any tax reform plan unless the current tax reduction ceiling of $10,000 was cancelled.</p><p>Judging from the purpose of the tax increase to subsidize the expenditure of infrastructure projects, there are still many uncertainties at the source. In this case, it is doubtful that the tax increase plan can be fully implemented.</p><p>On the other hand, even if the tax scheme is passed, the final effect may not be as good as imagined.</p><p>In the United States, it has always been very difficult to tax high-income groups, because these rich people are surrounded by a group of extremely professional accountants who can help them avoid most taxes through various legal loopholes.</p><p>Companies can increase costs and expenses at home to offset them, or adjust their income structure to seek lower tax rates, or even transfer their registration place to overseas tax havens.</p><p>This is also the reason why the United States has recently tried to woo G20 countries to set a globally consistent minimum tax rate to specifically crack down on the practice of American enterprises transferring profits through tax havens in order to retain tax sources.</p><p>But there are still many ways for wealthy accountants in America to evade taxes.</p><p>Buffett once wrote an article \"Stop Pamper the Super Rich\", which profoundly reflected the \"inequality\" of taxation in the United States. Although he earns hundreds of millions of dollars every year, through reasonable evasion, his own actual tax rate is only about half of his company's employees, and even the cleaners in his office are higher than him.</p><p>In terms of tax avoidance, Trump can be called the king:</p><p>Most of the Trump family's expenses go to the company's account, as well as luxury assets such as luxury houses, planes and holiday estates that were originally private expenses, all of which are hung on the company's account.</p><p>Therefore, most of Trump's assets in the information provided to the tax bureau were at a loss, and these losses helped him exempt at least $600 million in taxes.</p><p>Although Trump's personal wealth was as high as $4 billion during his term of office, he didn't pay a penny to the tax bureau for 10 years in the 15 years before 2016, and he only paid a tax of $750 after being subject to stricter supervision for several years in office.</p><p>What's even more exaggerated is that because of the \"loss\" of his assets, Trump also received a tax refund subsidy of $72.9 million in 2010, taking back all the taxes paid for several years, and earning a large sum of interest.</p><p>So we can see that there is an obvious trend in the United States, the debt is getting higher and higher, and the taxes of the rich and high-income people are getting lower and lower.</p><p>So now that the Biden administration really wants to levy taxes on companies and the rich, it's hard to say how much income it can collect.</p><p>In fact, the tax increase will not be the rich class or the barefoot bottom class most affected in the end, but some small and medium-sized enterprises and middle-class families with an annual income of more than $400,000.</p><p>The actual burden of the middle class in the United States is actually very heavy. Monthly pensions, personal taxes, medical insurance, education, transportation and other expensive expenses make it almost impossible for them to save money. That's why the United States is an advanced consumption country. In fact, it's not that they don't want to save money.</p><p>It can be seen that under the background of a huge amount of water release, the income growth rate of the middle class is not as fast as the rate of water release, and prices continue to rise and purchasing power declines. Now that large taxes are added, the situation will inevitably be even worse.</p><p>At present, what Biden can do is to continue to distribute cash to maintain consumer demand, and then continue to release water to stimulate the economy and employment. After all, the current mess is too big.</p><p>In fact, Biden is likely to know that it is actually difficult to increase taxes on the rich under the existing system to be effective, but at least he must first make a look, and there will be some results.</p><p>As for whether it is necessary to increase other policies in the future to make this tax increase policy implement, we will wait and see.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3>Can the boom of US stocks continue?</h3>This is an easy problem to hit in the face, but it is necessary to analyze it.</p><p>We can see that as soon as Biden's tax increase plan came out this time, U.S. stocks began to fall collectively, especially the technology stocks that have experienced the biggest gains in recent years.</p><p>It shows that the market has a great reaction to the policy that the capital gains tax may double, although there is still great uncertainty.</p><p>If that's right, the current capital gains tax in the United States is around 0-20%. If the profits tax increases greatly, the impact will indeed be great.</p><p>The current batch of technology stocks in the U.S. stock market that have grown wildly in recent years is the biggest driving force for the continued strength of U.S. stocks. They are not only the favorites of countless wealthy Americans, but also the ballast stones of many top funds, and they are also the unanimous choice of countless leveraged retail investors in the United States, so no one wants these technologies to fall.</p><p>But the underlying logic of the current prosperity of U.S. stocks is more about asset bubbles caused by the release of huge amounts of water, rather than the valuation increase brought about by the strong economic growth of corporate profits (the current strong U.S. economic data is a post-epidemic recovery, which cannot be regarded as a long-term trend). Now that the market's expectations for tightening liquidity in the United States have risen, what will support the future increase of these asset bubbles?</p><p>A while ago, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield continued to rise several times, which frightened the market. The volatility of several major U.S. stock indexes, especially the Nasdaq index, increased significantly, which somewhat shows that the foundation of market optimism has loosened.</p><p>If the U.S. capital gains tax really increases significantly, will the holders of these technology stocks form a chain reaction because someone rushes ahead without doubts about the upside in the future?</p><p><h3>4</h3><h3>epilogue</h3>As the saying goes, heaven is good for reincarnation, and history is always surprisingly similar.</p><p>In the Coolidge and Hoover era, they successively adopted a large number of tax cuts and quantitative easing to stimulate the American economy to unprecedented prosperity. The hottest bubble burst led to the historical Great Depression in 1929. Then Roosevelt came out to clean up the mess, trying to revive the economy by borrowing money to build infrastructure and raising taxes on the rich, which intensified the actual internal contradictions.</p><p>If the demand stimulus brought by World War II during his tenure hadn't made the American economy prosperous again, it's hard to imagine what the results of Roosevelt's New Deal would have brought.</p><p>Since the subprime mortgage crisis, the path adopted by Obama and Trump is roughly similar to that of Coolidge and Hoover back then. They have also rapidly accumulated unprecedented debt and asset bubbles, and then Biden is following the same route as Roosevelt. Although the United States as a whole still looks safe at present, the current accumulated risk cannot be underestimated.</p><p>Although from a longer-term perspective, if the U.S. infrastructure plan is effectively implemented, it will inevitably bring revitalization to the U.S. real economy, but after all, it is still far from being effective.</p><p>Before this time, will there be a big decline in U.S. stocks to release risks?</p>","source":"jinrongjie_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Biden's tax increase on the rich end the bull market in US stocks?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Biden's tax increase on the rich end the bull market in US stocks?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金融界</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-23 23:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last night, the U.S. stock market once again hit the waist of the gray rhinoceros that raised taxes on Biden. The three major stock indexes collectively plunged rapidly during the session, and finally closed down nearly 1%.</p><p>The decline in U.S. stocks may seem modest, but the worries pervading Wall Street have accumulated and spread to other asset prices.</p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield also fell from an intraday high to 1.54%, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield also hit its lowest point since March.</p><p>The decline of cryptocurrency was even bleak. Bitcoin plummeted in response, even falling below the low point of last week's plunge. Bitcoin fell below the $49,000 mark. Today, it fell by more than 12%. Data shows that tens of billions of yuan have been liquidated.</p><p>Although the domestic Hong Kong A-stock market is booming, it is certainly gratifying. However, as the center of gravity of global financial assets, the United States cannot pay too much attention to the current new situation in the United States.</p><p>When Trump and Biden were campaigning, Trump directly stated that if Biden entered the White House, it would bring \"the largest (magnitude) tax increase in history\" to the United States. Today, it seems that Trump is not talking nonsense. However, he also made it clear, \"Then you will see a Great Depression like you have never seen before, and you will have to go back to 1929. There is nothing worse than that.\"</p><p>Will Trump's prediction come true?</p><p><h3>1</h3><h3>The largest tax in American history</h3>Large-scale economic stimulus plans and large-scale tax increases are promises clearly made by Biden during the campaign, and regardless of whether it can be implemented in the future, he is indeed \"handing in homework\" to the bulls he has bragged before.</p><p>Increasing taxes on the rich is only part of the plan. Based on the information released one after another last month, the Biden administration's tax increase plan probably has several aspects:</p><p>1. Increase the federal corporate income tax from 21% to 28%;</p><p>2. Impose a minimum tax rate of 15% on companies with annual revenue exceeding $2 billion;</p><p>3. The income tax rate for the rich with an annual income of over US $400,000 will be restored to 39.6%, and the 20% pre-tax deduction will be cancelled, and the deduction ceiling will be set to no more than 28%, superimposed on the existing investment income surtax, which means that the tax rate may be as high as 43.4%, and the capital gains tax rate in high-tax states may even exceed 50%;</p><p>4. Increase the minimum tax rate of multinational companies. The minimum tax rate of enterprises with global book revenue exceeding USD 1 million will be increased to 15%, and the tax rate of overseas branches in the United States will be increased from 10.5% to 21%;</p><p>5. Increase the capital gains tax of the rich. For example, if you sell cryptocurrency after holding it for more than one year, you will face the risk of capital gains tax;</p><p>6. Social security for high-income people is levied at 12.4%.</p><p>If the above plans can be roughly realized, it will be the largest federal tax increase since 1942.</p><p>The purpose of these tax increases is naturally to fill a small part, including the trillions of economic stimulus plans he signed since he took office, and various pits left by the Trump era, so as to try to save the fiscal deficit that the United States is currently flying fast and uncontrollable.</p><p>Since Biden took office, the US $1.9 trillion epidemic relief stimulus package and the US $2.25 trillion infrastructure and employment support plan passed, plus the two special budgets of US $2 trillion and US $880 billion passed by Congress last year, the United States has released water. It has already exceeded 5 trillion yuan, which is equivalent to using more than 25% of US GDP to stimulate the economy.</p><p>At present, the balance of U.S. federal debt has reached less than $30 trillion, more than 130% of its GDP.</p><p>It can be said that the current economic prosperity of the United States is actually more supported by the huge amount of liquidity that is continuously released. In addition to the trillions of economic stimulus plans, it also includes stimulating the demand side through direct distribution of money. The consequence of this strong medicine is a rapid increase in the fiscal deficit.</p><p>But even so, the current economic situation in the United States is still full of problems.</p><p>In the history of the United States, such a large-scale tax on enterprises and the rich was actually not the Great Depression in 1929 (the era of the 31st President Hoover) as Trump said, but the beginning of the new President Franklin Roosevelt after the Great Depression to implement the \"New Deal\" to deal with the Great Depression. So Trump is ambiguous and carrying private goods.</p><p>In fact, Trump is more like the lavish President Hoover than Biden.</p><p>When Franklin Roosevelt was appointed in danger, he had to impose high taxes in the face of the debt left by former President Hoover. His top federal corporate tax rate was raised from 63% to 94% during his term, and it has been maintained for a long time thereafter.</p><p>It is difficult for us to give a fair evaluation of the effect of Roosevelt's New Deal. Although it alleviated the fiscal deficit problem of the United States to a certain extent, it also caused strong opposition and confrontation from the business circles at that time. In the end, in actual implementation, the effect of taxing the rich is not too obvious.</p><p>At the same time, Roosevelt's New Deal also created a new mode of state intervention in economic development. Capitalism bid farewell to the era of laissez-faire policy and ushered in the era of Keynesian government intervention in economic behavior.</p><p><h3>2</h3><h3>Does raising taxes on the rich really work?</h3>In the magical year of 2020 last year, or until now, the United States relied on making money to survive under the impact of the severe epidemic, but the capital market in the United States was extremely prosperous, causing the wealth of the top 1% of the richest people in the United States to increase instead of decreasing. Increase more than $1 trillion in wealth.</p><p>For example, the richest man in the world<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Founder Bezos's wealth soared by nearly 80%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Musk's wealth has increased by more than 7 times and so on.</p><p>So, Biden's motivation to tax the rich can be said to be great.</p><p>According to the calculation of Biden's tax increase plan, if the above-mentioned tax increase policy can be effectively implemented, it will bring a total of US $2.1 trillion in revenue to the US finance, which can basically cover the cost of the 2.25 trillion infrastructure plan implemented.</p><p>But just because the abacus is loud, it doesn't mean that you can collect money.</p><p>The experience and lessons of successive American presidents have proved that in capitalist countries, increasing taxes on capitalists who control the right to speak is simply seeking skin from a tiger, which is not only difficult, but even life-threatening.</p><p>Although taxing the rich has won the approval of ordinary Americans under the increasingly intensifying contradiction between the rich and the poor, there are still many uncertainties about the passing of the proposal announced by Biden next week.</p><p>First of all, the current tax increase policy is very controversial in the United States. As a bitter rival, any form of tax increase by the Democratic Biden administration is unlikely to be supported by the Republican Party. In particular, the current tax increase policy of the Democratic Party is obviously opposite to the direction of the Trump administration. Agreeing with Biden is undoubtedly tantamount to a slap in the face.</p><p>Not to mention that the process of finally passing the bill will be very long. At present, the bipartisan pattern in the Senate is 50 to 50. If some Democratic members defect, the final tax increase plan will be suspended. Earlier, I heard that three members of parliament stated that they would not support any tax reform plan unless the current tax reduction ceiling of $10,000 was cancelled.</p><p>Judging from the purpose of the tax increase to subsidize the expenditure of infrastructure projects, there are still many uncertainties at the source. In this case, it is doubtful that the tax increase plan can be fully implemented.</p><p>On the other hand, even if the tax scheme is passed, the final effect may not be as good as imagined.</p><p>In the United States, it has always been very difficult to tax high-income groups, because these rich people are surrounded by a group of extremely professional accountants who can help them avoid most taxes through various legal loopholes.</p><p>Companies can increase costs and expenses at home to offset them, or adjust their income structure to seek lower tax rates, or even transfer their registration place to overseas tax havens.</p><p>This is also the reason why the United States has recently tried to woo G20 countries to set a globally consistent minimum tax rate to specifically crack down on the practice of American enterprises transferring profits through tax havens in order to retain tax sources.</p><p>But there are still many ways for wealthy accountants in America to evade taxes.</p><p>Buffett once wrote an article \"Stop Pamper the Super Rich\", which profoundly reflected the \"inequality\" of taxation in the United States. Although he earns hundreds of millions of dollars every year, through reasonable evasion, his own actual tax rate is only about half of his company's employees, and even the cleaners in his office are higher than him.</p><p>In terms of tax avoidance, Trump can be called the king:</p><p>Most of the Trump family's expenses go to the company's account, as well as luxury assets such as luxury houses, planes and holiday estates that were originally private expenses, all of which are hung on the company's account.</p><p>Therefore, most of Trump's assets in the information provided to the tax bureau were at a loss, and these losses helped him exempt at least $600 million in taxes.</p><p>Although Trump's personal wealth was as high as $4 billion during his term of office, he didn't pay a penny to the tax bureau for 10 years in the 15 years before 2016, and he only paid a tax of $750 after being subject to stricter supervision for several years in office.</p><p>What's even more exaggerated is that because of the \"loss\" of his assets, Trump also received a tax refund subsidy of $72.9 million in 2010, taking back all the taxes paid for several years, and earning a large sum of interest.</p><p>So we can see that there is an obvious trend in the United States, the debt is getting higher and higher, and the taxes of the rich and high-income people are getting lower and lower.</p><p>So now that the Biden administration really wants to levy taxes on companies and the rich, it's hard to say how much income it can collect.</p><p>In fact, the tax increase will not be the rich class or the barefoot bottom class most affected in the end, but some small and medium-sized enterprises and middle-class families with an annual income of more than $400,000.</p><p>The actual burden of the middle class in the United States is actually very heavy. Monthly pensions, personal taxes, medical insurance, education, transportation and other expensive expenses make it almost impossible for them to save money. That's why the United States is an advanced consumption country. In fact, it's not that they don't want to save money.</p><p>It can be seen that under the background of a huge amount of water release, the income growth rate of the middle class is not as fast as the rate of water release, and prices continue to rise and purchasing power declines. Now that large taxes are added, the situation will inevitably be even worse.</p><p>At present, what Biden can do is to continue to distribute cash to maintain consumer demand, and then continue to release water to stimulate the economy and employment. After all, the current mess is too big.</p><p>In fact, Biden is likely to know that it is actually difficult to increase taxes on the rich under the existing system to be effective, but at least he must first make a look, and there will be some results.</p><p>As for whether it is necessary to increase other policies in the future to make this tax increase policy implement, we will wait and see.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3>Can the boom of US stocks continue?</h3>This is an easy problem to hit in the face, but it is necessary to analyze it.</p><p>We can see that as soon as Biden's tax increase plan came out this time, U.S. stocks began to fall collectively, especially the technology stocks that have experienced the biggest gains in recent years.</p><p>It shows that the market has a great reaction to the policy that the capital gains tax may double, although there is still great uncertainty.</p><p>If that's right, the current capital gains tax in the United States is around 0-20%. If the profits tax increases greatly, the impact will indeed be great.</p><p>The current batch of technology stocks in the U.S. stock market that have grown wildly in recent years is the biggest driving force for the continued strength of U.S. stocks. They are not only the favorites of countless wealthy Americans, but also the ballast stones of many top funds, and they are also the unanimous choice of countless leveraged retail investors in the United States, so no one wants these technologies to fall.</p><p>But the underlying logic of the current prosperity of U.S. stocks is more about asset bubbles caused by the release of huge amounts of water, rather than the valuation increase brought about by the strong economic growth of corporate profits (the current strong U.S. economic data is a post-epidemic recovery, which cannot be regarded as a long-term trend). Now that the market's expectations for tightening liquidity in the United States have risen, what will support the future increase of these asset bubbles?</p><p>A while ago, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield continued to rise several times, which frightened the market. The volatility of several major U.S. stock indexes, especially the Nasdaq index, increased significantly, which somewhat shows that the foundation of market optimism has loosened.</p><p>If the U.S. capital gains tax really increases significantly, will the holders of these technology stocks form a chain reaction because someone rushes ahead without doubts about the upside in the future?</p><p><h3>4</h3><h3>epilogue</h3>As the saying goes, heaven is good for reincarnation, and history is always surprisingly similar.</p><p>In the Coolidge and Hoover era, they successively adopted a large number of tax cuts and quantitative easing to stimulate the American economy to unprecedented prosperity. The hottest bubble burst led to the historical Great Depression in 1929. Then Roosevelt came out to clean up the mess, trying to revive the economy by borrowing money to build infrastructure and raising taxes on the rich, which intensified the actual internal contradictions.</p><p>If the demand stimulus brought by World War II during his tenure hadn't made the American economy prosperous again, it's hard to imagine what the results of Roosevelt's New Deal would have brought.</p><p>Since the subprime mortgage crisis, the path adopted by Obama and Trump is roughly similar to that of Coolidge and Hoover back then. They have also rapidly accumulated unprecedented debt and asset bubbles, and then Biden is following the same route as Roosevelt. Although the United States as a whole still looks safe at present, the current accumulated risk cannot be underestimated.</p><p>Although from a longer-term perspective, if the U.S. infrastructure plan is effectively implemented, it will inevitably bring revitalization to the U.S. real economy, but after all, it is still far from being effective.</p><p>Before this time, will there be a big decline in U.S. stocks to release risks?</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://hk.jrj.com.cn/2021/04/23221532432651.shtml\">金融界</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a06fb8b1db7037b689423e44b4d5b305","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://hk.jrj.com.cn/2021/04/23221532432651.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129350241","content_text":"昨晚，美股再一次给拜登加税这头灰犀牛撞了一下腰，三大股指盘中集体快速跳水，最终收跌近1%。\n美股的跌幅看似不大，但弥漫在整个华尔街上空的担忧情绪越积越浓厚，并蔓延到了其他资产价格。\n美国十年期国债收益率亦从盘中高点跌至1.54%，30年期美债收益率也创下了3月以来最低点。\n加密货币更是跌幅惨淡，比特币应声暴跌，甚至跌破了上周暴跌的低点，比特币跌破49000美元关口，今日跌幅超12%，数据显示又爆仓了几百亿元。\n虽然国内的港A股市一片飘红风景独好，固然令人欣慰。但美国作为全球金融资产的重心，我们再如何谨慎留意美国当下的新形势都不为过。\n在当初特朗普与拜登竞选的时候，特朗普直接表示过，如果拜登入主白宫，将会为美国带来“历史上最大（幅度）增税”，今天看来特朗普没有瞎说。不过，他也明确表示，“到时你们将会看到一场你们从未见过的大萧条，你们不得不回到1929年，没有比那更糟糕的了。”\n特朗普的预言会成为现实吗？\n1\n美国史上最大的征税\n大规模的经济刺激计划和大规模加税都是拜登竞选时就明确许下的承诺，且不论将来能否落地，他确实是在向之前吹过的牛“交作业”。\n给富人加税只是计划中的一部分，结合上月来陆续公布的信息，拜登政府的加税方案大概有几个方面：\n1、把联邦企业所得税从21%提高到28%；\n2、向年收入超过20亿美元的公司征收15%的最低税率；\n3、年收入超40万美元富人所得税率恢复到39.6%，并取消20%的税前抵扣，并且设置抵扣上限为不超过28%，叠加上现有的投资收入附加税，这意味着税率可能高达43.4%，高税州的资本利得税率甚至可能会超过50%；\n4、提高跨国公司最低税率，全球账面营收超100万美元的企业最低税率提高至15%，美国海外分公司税率由10.5%提高到21%；\n5、增加富人的资本利得税。比如如果在持有加密货币一年以上之后出售的，将要面临资本利得税的风险；\n6、高收入人群社保按照12.4%征收。\n如果上面的计划都能实现个大概，那将会是1942年以来最大规模的联邦加税措施。\n这些加税的用途，自然是为了填补一小部分包括自己上任以来签署的数万亿经济刺激计划，以及特朗普时代留下的各种坑，尽量挽救一下美国目前放飞得快控制不住的财政赤字。\n拜登上任以来通过的1.9万亿美元疫情纾困刺激方案和2.25万亿美元的基础设施和就业支持计划，加上国会去年通过的2万亿与8800亿美元两笔特别预算，美国放的水早就超过5万亿，相当于动用美国GDP超25%来刺激经济。\n目前，美国联邦债务余额已差不达到了30万亿美元，超过其GDP的130%。\n可以说，美国当期的经济景气实际上更多是靠不断放出来的天量流动性支撑，除数万亿的经济刺激计划，还包括通过通过直接发钱的方式刺激需求端提振，然后这种猛药导致的后果是财政赤字的急速攀升。\n但即使是这样，美国目前的经济形势依然问题重重。\n在美国历史上，如此大规模的向企业和富人征税，其实不是特朗普所说的1929年时大萧条（第31任总统胡佛时代），而是大萧条发生后新任总统富兰克林・罗斯福上任推行“新政”对付大萧条开始的。所以特朗普是模棱两可夹带私货了。\n事实上，特朗普相比拜登反而更像大手大脚的胡佛总统。\n当年富兰克林・罗斯福临危受任，面对前任总统胡佛留下债台高筑的局面不得已做出的高额征税。其在任期的联邦企业最高税率从63%提高至94%，并在此后维持了很长时间。\n对于罗斯福新政效果我们很难给出一个公允的评价，虽然一定程度上缓解了美国的财政赤字问题，但也引起当时的工商界强烈反对和对抗。最终在实际执行中，对富人征税的效果并没有太明显的结果。\n同时罗斯福新政也开创了国家干预经济发展的新模式，资本主义宣告告别自由放任政策的时代，迎来了有政府干预经济行为的凯恩斯主义时代。\n2\n向富人加税真的有效吗？\n在去年魔幻的2020年，或者直到如今，美国在严峻的疫情冲击下靠发钱度日，但美国的资本市场却异常繁荣，导致美国最顶尖的那1%的富豪财富不减反增，整体增加超过1万亿美元的财富。\n比如，世界首富亚马逊创始人贝佐斯财富猛增近80%，特斯拉马斯克的财富增加超7倍等等。\n所以，拜登向富人征税的动机可以说很大。\n按照拜登加税方案的测算，如果上述加税政策能有效落地，那么合计就能为美国财政带来2.1万亿美元的收入，基本能覆盖所推行的2.25万亿基建计划用度了。\n但算盘打得响，不代表就能收得来钱。\n历届美国总统的经验教训证明，在资本主义国家，向掌控了话语权的资本家加税简直就是与虎谋皮，不仅难度大，搞不好甚至真的还有生命危险。\n虽然在日益激化的贫富两极矛盾形势下，对于富人征税深得美国普通民众的赞同，但拜登下周公布的这项提案想要获得通过还有很多不确定性。\n首先，目前的加税政策在美国内部争议很大。作为死对头，民主党的拜登政府任何形式的加税都不大可能得到共和党的支持，尤其是民主党现在的加税政策明显与此次特朗普政府的方向相反，赞同拜登那无疑等于自己打脸。\n且不说最终通过法案的流程会拉很长，目前参议院内两党格局为50比50，如果当中有民主党议员倒戈，那最终加税方案就悬了。此前听说有三位议员就表态除非取消目前1万美元的个税减免上限，否则不会支持任何税改方案。\n而从加税是给补贴基建计划开支的目的看，这在源头上也都还具有很多不确定性，这种情况下，加税方案能完全落地就值得怀疑了。\n另一方面，即使通过了征税方案，最终效果可能也不会有想象中那么好。\n在美国，对高收入群体征税从来都是非常困难，因为这些富豪的身边都有一群无比专业的会计师，可以帮他们通过各种法律漏洞为规避大部分的税收。\n开公司的在国内可以增加成本开支来抵扣、或者调节收入结构寻求更低的税率，甚至把注册地转移到海外的避税天堂。\n这也是为什么美国在近期试图拉拢G20国家制定全球一致最低税率来专门打击美国企业通过避税天堂转移利润做法，以留住税源的原因。\n但美国富人的会计师还有大把方式逃税。\n巴菲特曾经有一篇文章《停止宠爱超级富豪》中深刻反映出了美国在税收上“不平等”，虽然他每年赚的钱数以亿计，但通过合理的规避，他本人的实际税率仅有他公司雇员约一半，甚至连他办公室的清洁工都比他高。\n在避税这方面，特朗普堪称其中的王者：\n特朗普家族旗下大部分的开销用度都走公司账，以及豪宅、飞机、度假庄园等原本属于私人用度的奢侈资产，全都挂在公司的账上。\n所以特朗普提供给税务局的资料旗下大部分资产是亏损的，这些亏损至少帮他免除了6亿美元的税额。\n虽然特朗普在任期时的个人财富高达40亿美元，但其在2016年之前的15年里，有10年时间没有向税务局交过一分钱，上台几年接受更严监督也才缴纳了750美元的个税。\n更夸张的，因为旗下资产的“亏损”，特朗普2010年还拿到了7290万美元的退税补贴，把几年交的税都拿回来了，还赚了一大笔利息。\n所以可以看到美国有一个很明显的趋势，债务越来越高，富人和高收入人群的税收越来越低。\n所以现在拜登政府真要向企业和富人征税，究竟能收上来多少收入，真不好说。\n事实上，加税最终受最大影响的不会是富人阶级，也不是光脚的底层阶级，而是针对年收入40万美元以上部分中小企业和中产家庭。\n美国的中产阶级的实际负担其实已经很重，每月的养老、个税、医保、教育、交通等各种昂贵开支让他们几乎没办法存钱，这也是为何美国属于超前消费型国家，其实并不是他们不想存钱。\n可以看到，在天量放水的大背景下，中产阶级的收入增速还不如放水速度，物价持续上升购买力下降，如今再加大幅税，那情况必然是更加糟糕。\n目前拜登能做的首先除了继续现金发钱保持消费需求，然后继续放水刺激经济与就业之外其实也没多大手段了，毕竟目前这个烂摊子窟窿，实在太大。\n其实拜登很可能也是知道现有体制下向富人加税实际是很难有成效，但起码首先要先把样子做出来，多少会有点成绩。\n至于后面是否需要加码其他政策让这个加税政策落地，那是走着瞧了。\n3\n美股的繁荣还能持续吗？\n这是一个很容易打脸的问题，但很有必要分析一下。\n我们可以看到，这一次拜登的加税方案一出来，美股就开始出现集体下跌，尤其这些年涨幅最大的科技股跌最明显。\n说明市场对资本利得税可能翻倍的政策反应很大的，虽然依然还有较大不确定性。\n如果没错的话，目前美国的资本利得税在0-20%左右，如果利得税大增的话，那冲击确实会很大。\n美股当下这一批在这几年疯长的科技股，是拉升美股持续走强的最大推力，它们不但是无数美国富人群体的心头爱，也是很多顶级基金的压舱石，并且也是美国无数有加杠杆的散户的一致选择，所以谁都不想这些科技跌。\n但现在美股的繁荣底层逻辑更多的是天量的放水导致的资产泡沫，而非经济面强劲企业利润增长带来的估值提升（当前美国经济数据强势是疫后修复还不能算长期趋势），如今市场对美国收紧流动性的预期有所抬升，这些资产泡沫的未来增量靠什么去支撑？\n在前阵子，美国10年国债收益率持续攀升几度吓坏市场，美股几大指数尤其纳斯达克指数的波动明显加大，多少说明市场的乐观情绪根基是有松动了。\n如果美国资本利得税真大幅增加，在后续没有确定上行空间的疑虑下，这些科技股的持有者会不会因为有人抢跑而形成连锁反应？\n4\n结语\n所谓天道好轮回，历史总是惊人的相似。\n当年的柯立芝和胡佛时代，他们先后通过采用大量的减税和量化宽松来刺激美国经济走向空前异常繁荣，最热泡沫破裂导致是1929年的历史大萧条。然后罗斯福出来收拾残局，通过举债搞基建和向富人阶层加税来试图重振经济，搞得实际内部矛盾激化。\n要不是其任内发生的二战带来的需求刺激让美国经济重新繁荣，很难想象罗斯福的新政会带来什么样的结果。\n如今次贷危机以来，奥巴马和特朗普的采取的路径手法与当年的柯立芝和胡佛两人也大体类似，也是急速积累了空前的债务和资产泡沫，然后也是拜登在走着罗斯福同样的套路，虽然目前美国整体还看上去依然安好，但当下的积累风险性确实已不容小看。\n虽然从更长远的视角看，美国的基建计划如果有效推行，那必然会对美国的实体经济带来振兴，但毕竟想要见效还很远。\n在次之前，美股会不会有一波释放风险的大下杀呢？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376739393,"gmtCreate":1619147419712,"gmtModify":1704720375106,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/376739393","repostId":"1157007346","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157007346","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"经济-金融-投资","home_visible":1,"media_name":"李迅雷金融与投资","id":"71","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb163b204aa14697bd7477df15b8b6b1"},"pubTimestamp":1619146751,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157007346?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-23 10:59","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"My country has started a demographic transformation. Who will be the \"ten-fold stocks\" at this stage?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157007346","media":"李迅雷金融与投资","summary":"新潮国货、互联网消费等将是“人口转型”下重要的消费投资机遇。","content":"<p>Xu Chi, Zhang Wenyu</p><p><b>Recently, the central bank released the working paper \"Understanding and Countermeasures on my country's Demographic Transition\" and the announcement of the results of the seventh census is imminent, which has triggered heated discussions on topics such as \"demographic dividend\" and \"fertility rate\" from all walks of life, and has aroused widespread concern in the capital market, and concept stocks related to \"liberalizing fertility\" have also soared recently. In fact, since the end of last year, various regions have announced the 2020<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABCD\">newly born</a>Since the news of the cliff-like decline in the child population, there have been \"endless\" voices about population issues such as \"declining birthrate\" and \"aging\" and demands for \"immediate and urgent comprehensive liberalization of the birth policy\".</b></p><p><b>What is the essence of demographic dividend? In the next five years, under the \"critical point\" of three baby boomers, what kind of \"turning point\" will China's population situation face? Under the \"demographic transition\", the decline of economic aggregate, especially real estate, seems inevitable, but does this necessarily mean the decline of economic quality and the exposure of systemic risks? From the global experience, is fertility policy really the key to determining the birth rate? Can the policy of fully liberalizing and encouraging birth be \"cured by medicine\"? Under the \"demographic transition\", how will the capital market interpret, and how to grasp the investment opportunities of \"ten times stocks\" bred under the tide of social structural change?</b></p><p><b>This paper will focus on the above-mentioned focus issues for detailed deduction.</b></p><p><b>Main conclusions</b></p><p>1) The essence of the demographic dividend is \"population borrowing\"-between the ages of 18 and 65, the population is the social dividend, and after the age of 65, the population is the social burden. This attribute determines that the greater the magnitude of the demographic dividend, the greater the population borrowing it extends-that is, the population burden after the age of 65.</p><p>2) In the next 5-10 years, as the first batch of \"baby boomers\" of the founding of the People's Republic of China enter the \"end of life\", the second batch of \"baby boomers\" of the post-60s will enter the \"retirement tide\" and become people in need of financial support, and the third batch of \"baby boomers\" of the post-80s will lose their \"golden childbearing age\". We believe that China's \"demographic transition\" may move to the next inflection point, that is, the fourth stage of \"accelerating aging and declining birthrate\", which will have a profound impact on the economy and capital market.</p><p>3) Re-understanding Japan's \"lost thirty years\", we find that if policies are properly responded, such as: through currency internationalization, promoting companies to go overseas to increase returns on capital; Through the reform of income distribution, narrowing the polarization between the rich and the poor, and increasing the consumption rate of the whole society to hedge against the lack of domestic demand under the aging situation, the decline of economic aggregate does not necessarily mean the decline of economic quality. On this basis, we are still optimistic about structural opportunities in the domestic capital market in the medium and long term.</p><p>4) Through the study of the success or failure of Japan's real estate regulation, the key to whether the downward trend of real estate under the aging population leads to systemic risks lies in whether the policy of \"tightening first and loosening later\" can be implemented in the two stages before and after the \"demographic transition\", so as to achieve a \"smooth\" transition of housing price trends. Since 2017, my country's strict policy tone of \"housing for living, not speculation\" and sufficient policy space reserved, as far as the foreseeable future is concerned, there is no need to worry too much about the possibility of systemic risks caused by the real estate downturn under the aging population.</p><p>5) On the basis of the huge financial pressure of aging itself in the next five years. As infants and young children themselves also need huge resources from the society and different regions have completely different responses to fertility policies, we believe that the policy of liberalizing and encouraging fertility is more likely to be steadily promoted step by step in line with national conditions, so as to reduce the burden of \"two-way impact\" of \"fertility and retirement\" on finance and the structural imbalance between regions of fertility rate on the consolidation of poverty alleviation achievements and maintaining stability.</p><p>6) The root cause of declining birthrate and aging is not policies, but an inevitable product of a country's modernization-industrialization has raised the cost of raising children and the age of marriage and childbearing for modern families, and urbanization has compressed residents' living space and increased living costs and pressures. This is the reason why the implementation effect of policies to encourage fertility in countries under different cultures and systems around the world is not satisfactory. Only a few countries that have achieved phased results, such as Russia and France, have also aggravated the structural imbalance of fertility among ethnic groups in China. The marginal utility of policies is diminishing, resulting in increasingly unbearable financial burdens.</p><p>Therefore, even if domestic policies to encourage fertility are implemented, it may be difficult to change the general trend of downward fertility rate. Therefore, we are cautious about the thematic investment opportunities of \"liberalizing fertility\" that are currently hotly speculated in the market.</p><p>7) Taking Japan as a lesson, the real medium-and long-term investment opportunities in the \"demographic transition\" may be on the \"aging side\": in the next 5-10 years, as domestic aging further intensifies,<b>Related industries around the increase of \"pure demand for the elderly\", such as: old-age care, funeral and other market space may increase rapidly;</b></p><p><b>However, the real investment opportunity of \"ten times bull stocks\" may be: under the acceleration of aging, the change of consumption mentality of the whole society-the improvement of life expectancy of young and middle-aged people and the mentality of preventing old age in advance,</b>For example, because of worries about living expenses in old age, increase<b>Insurance</b>Aspect expenditure; Because we want to delay aging, we pay more attention to health expenditure:<b>Medicines and health care, medical aesthetics, cosmeceuticals, healthy beverages</b>Will be increasingly favored; Worried about lack of company, so<b>Pet Economy</b>Prevailing.</p><p>In addition,<b>As the \"new generation consumption\" of young people born in 1995-2000 with the strongest \"inheritance of wealth from generation to generation\" and marginal consumption propensity, such as: trendy domestic products, Internet consumption</b>Etc. will also be important consumer investment opportunities under the \"demographic transition\".</p><p><b>1. \"Honecker Hypothesis\"-the essence of \"demographic dividend\" is \"population lending\"</b></p><p>On April 14, 2021, the central bank released the working paper \"Understanding and Countermeasures on my country's Demographic Transition\". Among them, the most interesting new point of view in this working paper-\"demographic transition\", that is, \"the benefits of demographic dividend must be repaid after all, and the more dividends you get before, the heavier the burden that needs to be repaid afterwards\". From an academic point of view, this sharp view actually has a profound theoretical context. The concept of \"demographic transition\" or \"population borrowing\" is elaborated in the book Population Tide: How Population Change Shapes the Modern World by Paul Moran, a famous British demographer.</p><p>In the book, \"population borrowing\" is led by an interesting story: Honecker, the last leader of East Germany, raised a question after seeing the huge gap in the average labor cost between West Germany and East Germany. At that time, the backwardness of East Germany was due to the artificial blockade of Westerners.<b>Assuming that there is no obstacle to the connection between East Germany and Western technology and capital, can East Germany finally surpass the West by taking advantage of its relatively cheap and obedient high-quality labor force to enter the global market?</b></p><p>As a matter of fact, the \"Honecker Hypothesis\" is the key to the \"development miracle\" of a series of developing countries after World War II, especially East Asian countries: through opening to the outside world, introducing western capital, making use of their own superior labor resources, and rapid urbanization and industrialization, the result is often about a generation (30-40 years), achieving the rapid development of their own economy and people's living standards, such as Japan's post-war economic miracle (1940-1980), Brazil's miracle (1948-1979) and South Korea's Hanjiang miracle (1953-1996).</p><p>But,<b>From a longer perspective, after experiencing a \"demographic dividend\" period of rapid growth for a generation, these countries are often accompanied by severe burdens of aging and declining birthrate, and fall into a quagmire of longer-term economic slowdown or even stagnation</b>Such as: Japan and South Korea's \"lost twenty years\" after the 21st century, \"Latin American trap\", etc., but ultimately failed to surpass the West.</p><p><b>The reason why \"Honecker Hypothesis\" failed to happen in practice lies in its failure to realize that the essence of \"demographic dividend\" is \"population lending\"</b>That is, before the age of 18, manpower is a kind of social resource that needs to be continuously invested (corresponding to the \"stage I of demographic transition\" in the central bank's work report), and from 18 to about 65, it is a high-quality asset that can generate rich social benefits (corresponding to the \"stage II of demographic transition\"), but after the age of 64, the demographic dividend will inevitably become a population burden due to aging-at this time, people have lost most social benefits, but need long-term continuous social assistance (corresponding to the \"stage III-IV of demographic transition\").</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea8c960e674c1afab007abf93d25d117\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This is the subtlety of the demographic dividend. Between the ages of 18-65, the population is the social dividend, and after the age of 65, the population is the social burden. This attribute determines that the greater the magnitude of the demographic dividend, the greater the population borrowing it extends-that is, the population burden after the age of 65.</p><p><b>More importantly, the underlying assumption of \"Honecker Hypothesis\": the advantage of low labor cost is essentially the abuse of demographic dividend, and abuse will more easily lead to the unsustainability of human resources and development</b>For example, while the rapid advancement of urbanization and industrialization has greatly increased residents' living costs such as housing prices, the long-term intentional maintenance of low labor costs will inevitably increase residents' living pressure and anxiety, and ultimately inevitably further weaken the population's reproduction ability, resulting in irreversible damage to the sustainable utilization of human resources.</p><p><b>2. China's \"demographic transition\" in the next five years: the \"dusk\" of three waves of \"baby boom dividends\"</b></p><p>As far as China's own \"demographic transition\" is concerned, if we say that the \"Lewis inflection point\" when the working-age population began to decrease around 2012 (from 2012 to now, the working-age population aged 16 to 60 in China has decreased by 30 million), it marks the formation of the turning point from labor surplus to shortage, that is, from the second stage to the third stage in the central bank's work report: the population size continues to grow but the growth rate slows down, and the economic growth rate changes from rising to falling, but it still keeps growing. Then, with the three waves of \"baby booms\" and \"dividends\" after the founding of the People's Republic of China in the next 5-10 years on the verge of the \"critical point\", China's \"demographic transformation\" may move towards the next turning point:</p><p>Chart 2 shows in detail the three waves of baby boomers in China since the founding of the People's Republic of China. According to the birth peaks of these three baby boomers, China's \"demographic transition\" in the next 5-10 years can be deduced:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da516a8aae9e9ba50eac7e96685c13b8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>1) Considering that the average life expectancy of our population is 75 years,<b>Born in the first wave of baby boomers in the early days of the founding of the People's Republic of China (about 20 million births every year),</b>It is expected that it will gradually enter the \"end of the life cycle\" from 5 years later. From the perspective of life cycle, the expected death of the first wave of baby boomers will be from 2025 to 2029. Based on the 10.035 million newborns announced by the Ministry of Public Security in 2020, assuming that my country's birth rate remains unchanged at this level, it is estimated that after 2025, my country's population may decrease by about 10 million per year.</p><p>2) More urgently,<b>Starting from 2022, the main baby boomer with the largest birth population in Chinese history (the \"baby boomer\" that began in 1962) will begin to enter a concentrated retirement period</b>At the same time, a 2018 study by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences showed that the number of young people in China continues to decrease, and there may be a net decrease of 30 million in the next five years. While the youth population declines, the elderly population increases, which will undoubtedly greatly increase China's financial burden.</p><p>3) At the same time, as the \"echo\" of the baby boom born in the 1960s, it is also the last \"baby boom\" in my country: from the 1985s to the early 1990s, its \"second child\" birth is the current \"mainstay\" of maintaining the fertility rate of the whole society: 2019 The proportion of second children in the year reached 57% of the birth population, and the post-80s generation was the absolute main force among second children.<b>In the next 5-10 years, these last \"baby boomers\" will also exceed 35-40 years old, that is, they will gradually lose the \"golden childbearing age\"</b>At the same time, considering the continued unilateral decline in fertility rate after 1991 and the rapid decline in fertility willingness after the 90s generation. This means that even if the state vigorously liberalizes or even encourages childbirth, it is expected that it will be difficult to achieve the expected effect of the policy.</p><p>In the next five years, the three major \"baby boom dividends\" after the founding of the People's Republic of China will gradually enter the \"dusk\". We believe that,<b>China's \"demographic transition\" may move towards the next turning point, that is, from stage III to stage IV</b>: The dependency ratio of the elderly is rising rapidly, aging and declining birthrate are serious, and economic growth is further slowing down. As investors, we need to pay close attention to the investment opportunities and risks contained in this change in social trend.</p><p><b>3. The \"Debate\" of Economic Quantity and Quality under the \"Demographic Transition\": Re-recognition of Japan's \"Lost Thirty Years\"</b></p><p>As far as the economy is concerned, in the long run, with the transition of China's population to the fourth stage (aging and declining birthrate), the general trend of economic aggregate indicators represented by GDP growth is downward or inevitable to some extent. But it should be noted that,<b>Quantity is not equal to quality, and the decline of economic aggregate under aging does not mean the inevitable decline of economic quality</b>, not to mention that the capital market loses its investment value. On the contrary, if the policy measures are appropriate in the face of the challenge of aging, the economic structure may be further optimized, and the economic quality and national competitiveness can also be improved in a new dimension.</p><p>Take Japan, the economy with the most serious aging and declining birthrate in the world, as an example. It is generally believed that Japan has entered a long period of economic recession and stagnation since the bubble burst in the 1990s. However, if we jump outside the GDP framework, is this really the case?</p><p>First, from<b>Japanese overseas assets</b>In terms of situation, according to data from the Japanese Ministry of Finance, as of the end of 2019, Japan's overseas assets were US $10 trillion, almost twice GDP, ranking fourth in the world, higher than mainland China's US $7 trillion;<b>Net assets after deducting liabilities are US $3.4 trillion, ranking first in the world for 30 consecutive years and 1.5 times that of third-ranked mainland China</b>。</p><p>In other words, Japan, which usually focuses on aging and economic recession in China, is just \"a narrow sense of Japan\", that is, Japan's mainland, another part of Japan-\"overseas Japan\" is often easily overlooked. In fact, with the saturation of Japan's domestic consumption and market under aging,<b>As early as the late 1970s, the Japanese government continuously promoted the internationalization of yen and financial opening, and guided Japanese enterprises and funds to overseas, a larger market, to make up for the lack of domestic capital return rate</b>：</p><p>According to the report \"The Secret and Enlightenment of Japanese Enterprise Longevity\" published by the Bank of Korea in 2008, among the 5,586 companies with a history of more than 200 years in the world, 3,146 have Japanese-funded shares. These high-quality companies contribute huge profits to Japan every year. For example, SoftBank of Japan is a shareholder of more than 600 companies around the world, or<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The largest shareholder; Japanese local companies are also going global on a large scale, investing and building factories overseas, and expanding overseas revenue, such as Uniqlo. In 2018, overseas revenue exceeded local revenue for the first time;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota Motors</a>In 2019, sales in China exceeded those in China for the first time.</p><p>On the basis of global competition, the competitiveness and key technology research and development capabilities of Japanese companies have always been at the leading level in the world. For example, among the number of the world's top 500 companies, Japan has maintained the second to third rankings all year round; In terms of scientific research, the number of Nobel Prize winners ranks sixth in the world, and scientists win awards almost every year. In new materials, lithography, precision machine tools, CNC<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Many other key technology fields have also maintained global leading competitiveness.</p><p>Second, just<b>Domestic Society and Consumption Structure in Japan</b>In terms of,<b>Since the downward pressure on overall domestic demand is increasing under the aging age, the need to increase the consumption rate of the whole society through social structure reform is increasingly urgent</b>: Due to the effect of diminishing marginal propensity to consume, the consumption that can be driven by the distribution of 1 yuan money to the poor is far greater than that of the rich. Therefore, the most critical factor in increasing the consumption rate of the whole society is whether the polarization between the rich and the poor can be narrowed and the number of middle class can be expanded through income distribution reform.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d5dbeebc0bc4a41298be5e3dd52b697\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As a matter of fact, since Japan began to continuously implement the income distribution reform represented by the \"income doubling plan\" in 1970s, the polarization between the rich and the poor in the whole society has decreased significantly. Looking at Gini coefficient: although the Gini coefficient of Japanese national direct income is still expanding (from 0.5 in 2000 to 0.57 in 2014), after the government's \"redistribution\", the Gini coefficient of Japanese society has dropped significantly to 0.32.<b>According to the 2019 joint report, the gap between the rich and the poor in Japan is the lowest in Asia and the top in the world (11th).</b>。</p><p>Corresponding to the advancement of income distribution plans such as income doubling, the consumption rate of the whole society in Japan has continued to rise since 1970s, effectively hedging the downward pressure of aging on domestic demand, which is the key factor for Japan to cross the \"middle income trap\". Especially after the bursting of Japan's economic bubble in the 1990s, a large number of consumer goods companies, including Uniqlo and Kobayashi Pharmaceutical, that adapted to new trends and changes, stood out and became \"ten-fold stocks\" in the Japanese stock market (we will analyze them in detail later).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6928bb57144750b196c89f043757fbc8\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In short, after the population transitions to the fourth stage of aging and declining birthrate, although Japan may have \"lost thirty years\" in a narrow sense measured by GDP, with the Japanese government<b>Internationalization of Japanese yen, income distribution</b>Vigorous reforms in other aspects,<b>Japanese companies and people \"haven't lost thirty years\"</b>On the contrary, in a sense, it has been improved, which is undoubtedly worthy of our full reference.</p><p>As far as China is concerned, in the next 5-10 years, the population transition from stage III to stage IV will certainly bring unprecedented challenges, but it should also be noted that China has planned sufficient policy responses, among which,<b>Some key measures that determine whether high-quality development can be achieved under aging conditions have also been written into the highest-level policy documents such as the \"14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Outline of Long-term Goals for 2035\"</b>, such as: implementing a higher level of opening to the outside world, \"the belt and road initiative\" and promoting the internationalization of RMB; Increase the adjustment and accuracy of taxation, social security, transfer payments, etc., give full play to the third distribution role of charity, and improve the distribution pattern of income and wealth.</p><p>Of course, the so-called \"one deployment, nine implementations\", it remains to be seen to what extent the policy can be implemented and to what extent it can hedge against the negative impact of the aging population, but at least in the next 5-10 years, China The direction of economic development towards high quality is certain.</p><p>On this basis, from the policy point of view, the decisive factor of interest rate in the medium and long term is the return on net assets of enterprises. With the aging of the population and the deepening of declining birthrate, the return on net assets of domestic local enterprises has declined.<b>Monetary policy can be expected to remain relatively loose in the medium and long term</b>, so that the interest rate matches the company's return on net assets. At the same time, the mismatch between fiscal revenue and expenditure caused by the increasing burden of pension will also limit the fiscal policy space in the future. Therefore, monetary policy will increasingly become the main means for the government to regulate the economy.</p><p>Therefore, with the improvement of economic quality and long-term reasonable and sufficient liquidity,<b>We are still optimistic about the medium and long-term allocation logic of the domestic capital market</b>At the same time, in the next five years, under the dramatic changes in my country's population and social structure, at least the capital market<b>New structural opportunities</b>Will keep emerging. So how should we grasp the investment opportunities under this \"demographic transition\"?</p><p><b>4. Will the systemic risk of real estate eventually be exposed? --The Success or Failure of Japan's Real Estate Regulation</b></p><p>Before elaborating on the specific investment opportunities in the capital market, the first thing we have to solve is the biggest potential risk of the capital market under the \"demographic transition\": the disappearance of the \"demographic dividend\" makes the population, a long-term key factor supporting real estate, begin to rapidly weaken. Under the transition of the population to aging and declining birthrate, the medium-and long-term cycle of real estate will decline or be inevitable to some extent. However, will the downward trend of the real estate cycle inevitably bring systemic risks?</p><p>From the existing international experience, it seems that this possibility cannot be ruled out: after the Plaza Accord, the yen appreciated sharply, and Japan's real estate bubble began to appear. Then, after Japan's aging and declining birthrate deepened in the 1990s and its economy grew at a low speed, the real estate bubble burst, and the plunge in house prices continued to lead to debt defaults and even bankruptcy of small and medium-sized banks. The systemic risk represented by this negative cycle is the focus that the market is most worried about under the aging transition. However, is the systemic risk of Japan's aging situation really inevitable?</p><p><b>In fact, aging is not the main reason for piercing Japan's real estate bubble and inducing systemic risks, but the improper rhythm of Japanese authorities' monetary policy-\"first loosening and then tightening\", which has led to the rapid rise and fall of Japan's housing prices and the instability of the financial system.</b>In 1986, the Bank of Japan adopted an overly loose monetary policy against the background of the appreciation of the yen. For example, in 1986, the central bank significantly reduced the benchmark interest rate from 5% to 2.5%, and while implementing the loose monetary policy, it lacked strong supervision on speculative capital at that time. As the collateral to incite a large amount of credit, the price of land is naturally inflated by speculative capital operation. This loose policy and regulatory environment brought about the bubble of real estate prices in Japan. From 1986 to 89, the housing price index in Tokyo, Japan increased from 103 to 213, and the housing prices in big cities such as Tokyo more than doubled in three years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3ed38d6126e48d012bb6845bdc0e8dc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Subsequently, the high real estate bubble forced the central bank to adopt a rapid rate hike. From 1989 to 1991, the central bank continued its rate hike, and the benchmark interest rate rapidly increased from 2.5% to 6.25%; In addition, in 1991, the Japanese government introduced the land price tax and strengthened the special land tenure tax to control the excessive rise of land prices. Eventually, it led to the bursting of the real estate bubble, in exchange for a short-term rapid decline in house prices, which increased the exposure to systemic risks. Around 1996, Japan's housing prices and land prices gradually stopped falling and stabilized, but the corporate and personal debts formed during the development of the bubble did not die out with the bursting, resulting in enterprises and individuals who relied on loans for irrational investment at that time still bear heavy debt burdens.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a8361e809b69d0e402cf76858ac7b1b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We believe that under the background of the appreciation of the yen, the Bank of Japan first encouraged the real estate bubble with the rapid loose monetary policy, and then the rapid rate hike took the initiative to puncture the rising bubble. This kind of \"loosening first and then tightening\" of real estate regulation superimposed the aging population, the deepening of declining birthrate and the economic downturn, resulted in the risk exposure of short-term bursting of the house price bubble. At the same time, the rapid decline of implied income of banks and the huge loans backed by real estate made the Japanese banking industry burden with heavy bad debts. Overlay 1997<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asian Finance</a>Under the transmission of the crisis and the bursting of the real estate bubble to the financial system, Changxin Bank, the ninth largest bank in Japan in the world, went bankrupt, which triggered a wave of bankruptcy in the banking industry.</p><p>Through the success or failure of Japan's real estate regulation, it can be seen that,<b>The key to whether the downward trend of real estate under the \"population aging transition\" leads to systemic risks lies in whether the \"smooth\" transition of housing prices can be realized in the two stages before and after the \"population transition\"</b>。</p><p>However, because short-sightedness is an inherent defect in human nature,<b>People are often used to infinitely linear extrapolation of short-term trends</b>The reason why Japan adopted the inappropriate policy of \"loosening before and tightening after\" in the process of aging transformation is that in the late 1980s, when Japan was still in the third stage of demographic transformation, Japan's international competitiveness and status were at the peak of history, and it was easy for Japanese policy makers to be overconfident-they believed that the Japanese economy could maintain rapid growth in the future and digest the rising housing prices, but they couldn't see the huge downward pressure on the economy when the subsequent aging peak came; After the aging and the establishment of the long-term inflection point of real estate, at this time, easing policies are urgently needed to hedge the downward pressure on housing prices. However, due to the thinking inertia of the bubble period, the Japanese government is worried that after the policy is relaxed, there will be a nationwide surge again, and the related easing and rescue measures are always \"half a beat slow\", thus constantly missing the \"window period\" to prevent the spread of risks.</p><p>Fortunately, at present, China's population structure is in the third stage, and housing prices still have a strong upward endogenous driving force.<b>However, the policy is far-sighted and has carried out all-round prevention of the risk of real estate overheating in advance</b>: The tone of \"housing is for living, not for speculation\" has been written into the \"Report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China\" since 2017. In the past three years, the central government and various localities have also adopted continuously stricter control measures on real estate speculation, which has curbed it to a certain extent. For example, Japan's real estate bubble in the 1990s has been crazy, and sufficient policy space has been reserved.</p><p>This means that even if my country's demographic transition enters the fourth stage of \"aging and declining birthrate\" in the next 5-10 years, even when real estate faces greater downward pressure in a certain period in the future,<b>Sufficient policy space and uncontrolled housing price \"bubble\" also make it possible to implement the policy of \"tightening before loosening after\" and promote the \"smooth transition\" of China's real estate industry</b>。 Therefore, as far as the foreseeable future is concerned, there is no need to worry too much about the possibility of systemic risks under the aging population and the downward trend of the real estate cycle.</p><p><b>5. Under the \"demographic transition\", why are we cautious about the thematic opportunities of \"encouraging fertility\"?</b></p><p>Under the increasing pressure of my country's \"demographic transition\" towards declining birthrate and aging in the next 5-10 years, since the end of last year, calls from all walks of life for full liberalization and even encouragement of childbearing have become stronger and stronger. The central bank's working paper also emphasizes this in its policy recommendations. This possible directional change in policy is the easiest and most directly conceivable investment opportunity for investors. Therefore, after the central bank's working paper was released, there was also a wave of hype on the theme of \"encouraging fertility\" and \"second child\" in the capital market. Some concept stocks related to maternal and child products even doubled their gains within ten trading days. However, under the \"demographic transition\", can the policy of \"encouraging fertility\" really continue to exceed expectations? If the policy is introduced, can it reverse the trend of \"declining birthrate\"?</p><p>First, just<b>Policy process</b>In other words, we believe that some experts and scholars in the current society, seeing the decline in fertility rate, demand \"immediate and urgent liberalization of fertility\", and even advocate changing \"family planning\" and \"the back team into the front team\"-the idea of \"encouraging fertility\" by compulsory methods such as disguised taxation of single and only-child families may be one-sided, ignoring the more important than the total population<b>Demographic structure.</b></p><p>As the essence of \"demographic dividend\" in the previous article is analyzed in \"population lending\": before the age of 18, the population is a \"burden\" that needs to constantly consume social resources for investment and support, and only after nearly 20 years of long investment can it be converted into high-quality assets that generate rich social benefits. In the next 5-10 years, the largest \"post-60s baby boom\" in China's history will enter the retirement period. On the basis of the continuous and rapid growth of retired elderly over 60-65 years old every year,<b>If the \"comprehensive childbirth encouragement policy\" really comes into effect as scheduled, and there are a large number of new \"baby boomers\" in the society who urgently need continuous investment, the government's financial burden and the overall social support burden will face \"the two-way impact of baby boom and retirement tide\" in 10 years or even longer.</b>The impact of this on the financial pressure of our government, high-quality economic development and residents' living standards cannot be underestimated.</p><p>More importantly, due to the imbalance of regional development in China, the population of different regions and social strata has significantly different responses to the policy of encouraging birth: after the two-child policy was fully liberalized in 2016, the three places with the highest birth rates were Shandong (17.54 ‰), Tibet (16 ‰) and Xinjiang (15.88 ‰), while among the six provinces with negative growth, three were municipalities directly under the Central Government (Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai), and the other three were all from Northeast China.</p><p>This means that,<b>Areas where the policy hopes to encourage childbearing: the most aging areas (the three northeastern provinces) and the labor-intensive provinces (municipalities directly under the Central Government, etc.) do not respond well to the policy. On the contrary, the more \"old, young, border and poor\" the population responds best to the policy of encouraging childbearing, and the new population in these areas has increased significantly, which will add new burdens to the consolidation of the hard-won achievements of \"poverty alleviation\" and social stability maintenance work</b>。 This structural difference, which is contrary to the original intention of liberalizing the birth policy, is expected to be more obvious in the subsequent implementation of policies such as comprehensive liberalization and encouragement.</p><p>In fact, the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Outline of Long-term Goals in 2035 set the tone of my country's fertility policy in a relatively safe and prudent manner: promoting the realization of moderate fertility levels, optimizing fertility policies, and promoting Long-term balanced population development.<b>We predict that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, policies to encourage fertility, such as liberalizing the \"three-child\", fully liberalizing fertility and even rewarding fertility, may be steadily promoted in a step-by-step model that is in line with national conditions</b>, which means that the pace of policy implementation is different from the \"radical model\" of \"immediate and urgent comprehensive liberalization\" expected by hot funds in the current capital market.</p><p>Secondly, as far as the effect after the implementation of the policy is concerned, compared with the view that some public opinions attribute the current \"declining birthrate\" to the family planning policy and believe that the fertility rate will rise significantly after the policy changes direction, we believe that, as stated in the central bank's working paper,<b>In a sense, declining birthrate and aging are the inevitable outcome of a country's modernization</b>Since it is an inevitable trend, it does not depend on the subjective intention of policy makers:</p><p><b>Looking at the implementation effects of fertility encouragement policies in various countries under different cultures and systems around the world, we can find that once a country's industrialization and urbanization reach a certain height, no matter what intensity and form of fertility encouragement policies, it is difficult to change the fertility rate in the long run. downward trend</b>。</p><p>From Figure 7, the comparison table of fertility rates before and after the implementation of policies and policies in various countries around the world (the table includes: East Asian culture represents Japan and South Korea, typical countries of western civilization France and Germany, Orthodox civilization represents Russia and Islamic civilization represents Iran), it can be found that when a country's total fertility rate (TFR) drops below the generation replacement level of 2.1, countries vigorously take measures to encourage fertility: for example, Russia provides hundreds of thousands of rubles for Russian families with second and more children. If you give birth to a child in Japan, you can directly receive maternity benefits of more than 400,000 yen; France's policy of encouraging childbirth has been implemented for more than 60 years, and the annual related fiscal expenditure has reached 83 billion euros.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f757746bb2b8259f32a0839ccf48bb2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"581\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although the strength and determination of the measures to encourage fertility in the above-mentioned countries are not small, and some have even exhausted all the possibilities of the policy, the actual effect is \"unsatisfactory\":</p><p>First, after vigorously implementing childbirth encouragement in all countries, the total fertility rate (TFR) level has not reached the policy benchmark target of 2.1 generation replacement level (the highest does not exceed 1.85);</p><p>Second, countries with different cultures respond significantly differently to policies to encourage fertility. Among them,<b>East Asian culture is the least sensitive to policy response to encouraging fertility</b>, the fertility rate of Japan, South Korea, and Singapore remains at a low level or is still declining after implementing the policy of vigorously encouraging fertility;</p><p>Third, some European countries such as Russia and France have implemented policies to vigorously encourage fertility, and the overall fertility rate has achieved certain results.<b>But in fact, there are two hidden dangers</b>：</p><p><ul><li><b>1) Ethnic minorities have become the main body of the increase in fertility rate, and the fertility situation between the main ethnic groups and ethnic minorities is further imbalanced</b>: The total fertility rate (TFR) of ethnic Russians is below 1.6, while that of Muslims in their territories (such as Chechnya) is as high as 3.2 or above. As a result, in the past 20 years, the Russian population has decreased by nearly 14 million, while the Muslim population in their territories The number has exceeded 16%, reaching 25 million; France, on the other hand, welcomes African populations, especially immigrants from historical French colonial countries, and provides maternity subsidies to blacks. The more children they have, the higher the subsidies, resulting in an increase in the overall fertility rate.<b>In the above two countries, the proportion of ethnic minorities with huge cultural differences has increased rapidly, and the deep-seated structural problems in society have intensified, which is one of the important reasons for the increase of social instability in the above two countries in recent years</b>。</p><p></li><li><b>2) Encourage the phenomenon of diminishing \"marginal utility\" of birth policies, that is, when policies such as maternity subsidies are vigorously implemented, the fertility rate will increase rapidly within 1-2 years, and then when people begin to get used to maternity subsidies, the fertility rate will increase again. Entering the downward channel, we can only continue to rely on greater subsidy stimulus, which will bring an increasing burden on the finance</b>For example: After the implementation of the \"Mother Fund\" project in Russia in 2007, Russia's birth rate once increased by 30% in a short period of time, but starting from 2017, Russia's fertility rate has continued to decrease every year, from 1.62 in 2017 to 2019 It is 1.5, and it is increasingly difficult to reach the policy target of 1.75 for the fertility rate in 2024.</p><p></li></ul><b>Fourthly, it is worth noting that even Iran, the representative of Muslim civilization, is the culture and religion that most emphasizes fertility in Chinese people's impression, has seen a rapid decline in fertility rate after industrialization and urbanization</b>(The number of births per woman in Iran dropped from 7 in 1960s to 1.8 in 2010), and after Iran completely abolished family planning in 2012, Iran still adopted policies such as spending more than 190 billion riyals every year to encourage childbearing and prohibiting all sterilization operations. However, in the past ten years since the implementation of the policy, Iran's fertility rate has only slightly risen to barely reaching the level of generation replacement, and the tradition of super-high fertility rate is no longer there.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0583b9424a7e9e252e6de4b206c9c7e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>There are profound reasons behind the poor effectiveness of the policies to encourage fertility in the above-mentioned countries and the inability to change the downward trend of fertility rate:<b>The reason for the decline in fertility rate is not policy, but modernization, especially industrialization and urbanization</b>：</p><p><b>On the one hand, industrialized society has strict requirements for the level of science and technology</b>Forcing residents to improve their children's education level at all costs in order to adapt their children to future needs. This not only makes the education level of modern society dramatically improve, but also<b>It greatly raises the cost of raising children in modern families and exacerbates the later marriage of the next generation, thereby weakening their reproductive potential</b>。</p><p><b>On the other hand, compared with the self-sufficient life of farming civilization, urbanization greatly reduces residents' living space</b>(It can be seen from Figure 9 that living density has a decisive impact on the fertility rate. Western European countries where more than half of the households live in apartment buildings have experienced fertility disasters without exception, while countries where the proportion is only 1/3 have significantly improved.) At the same time,<b>And greatly increase the living cost of residents</b>: The bills of housing, medical care, transportation and other expenses bring endless life pressure to citizens, forcing citizens to increase their work intensity day and night, which certainly provides sufficient impetus for economic development.<b>But such a pressing life leaves citizens with little time and energy to raise children</b>。 In this case, the rapid decline of fertility rate is also inevitable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/827675adb1874618776c9d693fa9ba94\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Finally,<b>The progress of modern medicine and science and technology not only greatly prolongs the life span of the modern society, but also brings about the aging of the population and causes unprecedented financial burden to the modern country</b>: Take our country as an example. Before the founding of the People's Republic of China, in the long era of feudal farming, our country's average life expectancy was maintained below 40 years old for a long time. This is certainly a symbol of backward social development, but it keeps the population structure youthful and energetic enough; After the founding of the People's Republic of China, with industrialization and modernization, the average life expectancy has also reached 75 years today. This certainly reflects the great improvement of the per capita living standard, but to some extent, it also means that the proportion of weak, weak but long-lived old people in the whole society is getting higher and higher, while the proportion of young people with working ability is declining. As mentioned earlier, this will bring great challenges to China's finance.</p><p>Since the essence of declining birthrate and aging lies in the modernization of society, especially the two cornerstones of modernization-industrialization and urbanization. Modernization is the direction of national and social progress and the general trend of history. It is beyond doubt that it can enhance the country's comprehensive national strength and improve personal living standards. As the saying goes, \"there is no way out for pause and retrogression\". Then, on the other hand, the trend of declining birthrate and aging is difficult to change-the policy can only delay the slope at best, but cannot reverse the direction.<b>In the face of such a general trend, trying to speculate on the relaxation of policies, the investment direction of rapid recovery in fertility rate can only be a \"flash in the pan\" after all.</b>。</p><p>As an investor, since aging and declining birthrate are historical necessity to some extent, it is better to embrace the investment opportunities bred by the \"turning era\" instead of confronting the general trend. With reference to the experience of Japan and other countries, we believe that,<b>Compared with the fertility end, the other end of the \"demographic transition\": investment opportunities bred by changes in social structure and consumption trends under aging, or a \"gathering place\" for real long-term \"ten-fold bull stocks\"</b>。</p><p><b>6. Under the \"population transition\", where are the real \"ten-fold stock\" investment opportunities in the capital market?</b></p><p><b>1. The most direct idea: pay attention to the increase of \"pure elderly needs\"</b></p><p>Under the aging age, one of the most direct investment ideas is to pay attention to sub-sectors closely related to the lives of the elderly, such as elderly care, chronic disease medical care, funeral industry, etc. We still learn from the consumption of the elderly in Japan's aging society. In 2016, the number of elderly people over 65 years old in Japan exceeded 30 million, accounting for about 22% of the total population; Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare predicts that by 2025, the post-war baby boomer generation in Japan will reach the super-old age over 75 years old, and the number of elderly people over 65 years old is expected to be 37 million, accounting for 30% of the total population. Under the concept of \"dependence for the elderly\", industries such as medical care and old-age housing services have been determined to become the growth points of Japan's economy after 2025. Wherein,</p><p><ul><li>1) The market space of Japan's funeral industry is twice that of China. According to the comparative data of Sino-Japanese funeral industry disclosed by scholar Jiang Yuyu in \"Comparison of Japanese Funeral and Sino-Japanese Funeral\", the annual death toll in Japan has been about 1.3 million since it entered deep aging, and there are more than 6,000 funeral enterprises in China, with an annual industry turnover of about 160 billion yuan. However, the annual death toll in China is about 9 million, the total number of funeral service institutions in China is 4,300, and the market size of the funeral industry is only 70 billion yuan, which is less than half that of Japan under the same funeral culture.</p><p></li><li>2) The elderly care service industry will continue to prosper with the aging of the population, and the Japanese government guides social investment in the nursing industry. Taking Japan as an example, the deeply aging medical care has increased the financial burden of the government. After 2004, Japan formulated important policies such as the Elderly Welfare Law, the Elderly Health Care Law and the Nursing Insurance Law to encourage social capital to participate in the nursing industry, and the aged care industry has developed rapidly. According to data from the Qianzhan Research Institute, the market size of my country's elderly care industry increased to 5.6 trillion yuan in 2018, a year-on-year growth rate of 17.9%; It is expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan by 2024, with an average annual growth rate of about 20%. We predict that as my country moves towards a deeply aging society, the growth rate of consumer demand for \"pure elderly people\" such as medical care and personal care may increase significantly.</p><p></li></ul><b>It is worth noting that although the above-mentioned increase in \"pure elderly demand\" closely related to the lives of the elderly is a certain trend, from the perspective of the capital market, the relevant segmentation has never produced \"ten times stocks\" in the past 20 years.</b>。 Part of the reason may be that due to the effect of \"life wealth curve\", the consumption and income of the elderly are the weakest among all ages in society, so it is not the best choice from the perspective of investment. So where is the real \"ten-fold bull stock\" investment opportunity under the \"demographic transition\"?</p><p><b>2. Under the \"demographic transition\", the real \"ten-fold bull stock\" and \"gathering place\": changes in the consumption mentality of young and middle-aged people under the aging</b></p><p>We have always emphasized that changes in consumer mentality should be given higher weight in the grasp of consumer trends and investment opportunities.<b>The internal impact of the aging of population structure on social consumption lies in the change of the whole society's expectation of life cycle. Among them, young and middle-aged people, as the group with the highest marginal consumption propensity, often dominate the changes in their consumption mentality and consumption habits in a certain historical stage. The direction of changes in the consumer industry.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43df303e73e7222a54d6c3ef92baebc9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"674\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Take the segmentation track of \"ten-fold stocks\" in the consumer sector after the bursting of the Japanese stock market bubble in 1995 as an example. Japan began to enter the social stage of \"low consumption desire\" in the middle and late 1990s. During the period of switching between growth and population, \"ten-fold stocks\" in consumer fields such as cost-effective clothing represented by Uniqlo, health products and beauty cosmeceuticals represented by ARATA appeared.</p><p>We believe that the ten-fold stocks that appeared in the era of low-speed growth have obvious characteristics: during the period of economic growth shifting, the trend of aging + declining birthrate continues to deepen, and after the era when all companies can grow comes to an end, \"companies that conform to the consumption trend\" \"Emerging segmented track\" companies are beginning to see strong growth opportunities. The trend of rational consumption by social residents has begun to rise. From 1995 to 2020, the consumption stocks that \"crossed the bulls and bears\" were concentrated in cost-effective clothing retail, leisure products, auto parts, cosmetics, functional health food and beverages and other subdivisions.</p><p>With<b>Fast Retailing, which ranks first in range gains</b>For example, Fast Retailing Group is a Japanese holding company mainly engaged in clothing business. Its UNIQLO division sells casual clothing under the brand name UNIQLO in Japan's domestic market and overseas markets. As the number of new people decreases year by year and the Japanese market is saturated, the younger generation has put forward higher requirements for product quality and cost performance. Uniqlo's simple style and high-quality fabric research and development cater to the rational consumption view of Japanese young people under the \"low desire\".</p><p>For another example,<b>ARATA, a leading retail supplier of cosmeceuticals and health products</b>For example, it provides upstream and downstream supply chain services for fast-moving consumer goods for Japanese first-line companies. The upstream connects with more than 1,200 suppliers (Shiseido, Kobayashi Pharmaceutical, etc.) to obtain goods, and a large number of goods and services reach 3,500 downstream retailers (Matsumoto Kiyoshi,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00984\">AEON</a>Etc.). ARATA is the core supplier of all leading drugstores in Japan, and its internal logic is to meet the needs of young people for cosmetics and health care daily necessities under the aging of Japan.</p><p>From the above-mentioned review on Japanese \"ten times stocks\", it can be seen that,<b>Under the \"demographic transition\", the real long-term bull stock investment opportunities may lie in: the change of the consumption mentality of the whole society under the acceleration of aging-the anxiety of young and middle-aged people about the increase in life expectancy and the prevention of old age in advance.</b></p><p><b>1) Because they are worried about the decline in quality of life after old age, young and middle-aged people's awareness of purchasing insurance has increased significantly:</b>According to data from the Japan Life Insurance Association, Japan's insurance density was 7.7% in 2018, exceeding the world average of 5.4%, and its premium income market share ranked third in the world. From 1990 to 2000, when Japan's economic growth was low and its aging society was formed, the development of Japanese insurance industry gradually matured. With the improvement of products and the upgrading of services, China's insurance industry may also accelerate its development in the gradual aging era. The \"Growth Engine of China's Life Insurance Market in the Next Five Years: Product Protection Upgrade and Innovation\" released by McKinsey & Company pointed out that compared with the 5%-10% life insurance penetration rate in mature markets, the Chinese market in 2019 was only about 3%. The penetration rate of insurance products will benefit from the deepening of the aging process and gradually increase.</p><p><b>2) Because they are afraid of getting old, young and middle-aged people do everything possible to delay aging and retain their youth. Therefore, sub-industries such as pharmaceuticals and health care, medical beauty, cosmeceuticals and health beverages continue to grow at a high rate.</b>In the past 20 years, the proportion of Japanese households' expenditure on health care has increased relatively high. In the consumption structure of medical care, the average proportions of medical services, medical supplies and appliances, medicines, and medical health products are 56.4%, 17.3%, 17.2%, and 9.0% respectively.</p><p>For example, Japan<b>Kobayashi Pharma</b>Recently, it has been sought after by consumers. Kobayashi Pharmaceutical is an all-round enterprise, committed to developing daily necessities, medicines, medical devices, daily necessities, and food that can meet all the needs of consumers, and has launched a variety of highly acclaimed cosmeceuticals. Popular products include: liquid band-aid, cream-type smear, VC whitening and freckle-removing cream, heat dissipation patch, etc.</p><p><b>In fact, this change in consumption mentality has begun to be gradually reflected in related industries in China in recent years. For example, the main consumer of medical and health products in China is no longer the elderly over 60 years old, but the huge incremental market of young and middle-aged people.</b>In recent years, the \"health preservation\" of the post-90s generation has quietly emerged. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">Ali Health</a>According to the data of \"2017 Health Consumption Report\", young people aged 18-29 account for more than 50% of healthy consumers. The post-90s and post-00s pay more attention to health and maintenance than the previous generation, and even break the boundaries of gender and age. 2018 Domestic Health Products Leading<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300146\">BY-HEALTH</a>Targeting young consumer groups who pursue \"beauty, fashion and health\", vigorously promoting the \"rejuvenation\" of products, boosting its e-commerce online channel revenue in 2020 to increase by 62.77% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da0de57e74212787492e566f08f01c25\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) The pet economy is booming because of worries about loneliness and lack of companionship in old age.</b>According to the data disclosed by Kailuo Insights, the pet market has reached 98 billion yuan since 2010, and the average annual growth rate of the industry scale by 2020 may maintain 18%. However, the domestic household pet ownership rate is only about 4%-5%, which is far less than 38% of Japanese household pet ownership rate. The aging trend has enhanced the active consumption willingness of pets for psychological care needs in families in the whole society, and the prosperity of related pet food and pet medical segments may be further improved.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f1c27e1800f8a9c35e7b9458e7e5ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Under the \"demographic transition\", the \"new generation of young people\" will be the \"leader\" of consumption trends</b></p><p>According to our research on generational consumption in Japan, the \"younger generation\" is the main force leading the consumption trend in Japan's \"economic downturn\". For example, in the 1990s, in the era of Japan's economic downturn, the next generation of masses (children of post-war baby boomers) had a sharp psychological contrast due to the high expectations stimulated by high economic growth and the cruel reality of economic downturn and class solidification after work. This psychological contrast has shaped its \"low desire\" consumption habit that pays more attention to simplicity and high cost performance. Around 2000, Japanese consumer society saw the rise of a new generation of leading consumer goods companies represented by Uniqlo, Daiso and MUJI.<b>It is the product of adapting to this change in consumption habits</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73e79e4e429cba788f382c27cbd07a99\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At present, for China, the similarity of population structure between China and Japan and the social background of increasing differentiation mean that the aging may have similar changes in the consumption expectation of the whole society.<b>The post-95s-post-00s generation who inherit \"generational wealth\" is the group with the greatest consumption potential, and the \"new consumption\" they lead is also the most obvious consumption segmentation among them.</b>China's post-95-00 generation was born in the 1990s. In the era of rapid development of communication and information technology, the impact of multiculturalism brought by globalization and informatization profoundly affected their values and made them more dependent on<b>Online convenient diversified consumption</b>。 This change has driven<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">Douyin</a>The rapid development of online video social retail and interactive platforms such as Kuaishou and Bilibili; In terms of the concept of consumer culture, the growth background of China's rapid macroeconomic growth drives the new generation to have stronger national self-confidence and cultural self-confidence. Its strong cultural self-confidence has also driven \"<b>Trendy domestic products</b>\"The rise of; The growing single group of younger generations has also spawned an increasingly popular<b>\"Single economy\" and \"stay-at-home economy\".</b></p><p>From this perspective, no matter from the review of Japanese consumer industry tenfold stocks, or from the enlightenment of generational consumption changes, we can see that under the background of the gradual acceleration of an aging society, the \"long-distance running champion\" of the stock market is still locked in the marginal consumption. For groups with high propensity, companies that adapt to and accurately target the changes in consumption trends of young people in the \"new generation\".</p><p>Risk warning: the risk of economic stall under aging, the deterioration of the geopolitical situation beyond expectations, the risk of deviation in the measurement of the scale of population changes in the article, etc.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>My country has started a demographic transformation. Who will be the \"ten-fold stocks\" at this stage?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMy country has started a demographic transformation. Who will be the \"ten-fold stocks\" at this stage?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/71\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb163b204aa14697bd7477df15b8b6b1);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">李迅雷金融与投资 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-23 10:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Xu Chi, Zhang Wenyu</p><p><b>Recently, the central bank released the working paper \"Understanding and Countermeasures on my country's Demographic Transition\" and the announcement of the results of the seventh census is imminent, which has triggered heated discussions on topics such as \"demographic dividend\" and \"fertility rate\" from all walks of life, and has aroused widespread concern in the capital market, and concept stocks related to \"liberalizing fertility\" have also soared recently. In fact, since the end of last year, various regions have announced the 2020<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABCD\">newly born</a>Since the news of the cliff-like decline in the child population, there have been \"endless\" voices about population issues such as \"declining birthrate\" and \"aging\" and demands for \"immediate and urgent comprehensive liberalization of the birth policy\".</b></p><p><b>What is the essence of demographic dividend? In the next five years, under the \"critical point\" of three baby boomers, what kind of \"turning point\" will China's population situation face? Under the \"demographic transition\", the decline of economic aggregate, especially real estate, seems inevitable, but does this necessarily mean the decline of economic quality and the exposure of systemic risks? From the global experience, is fertility policy really the key to determining the birth rate? Can the policy of fully liberalizing and encouraging birth be \"cured by medicine\"? Under the \"demographic transition\", how will the capital market interpret, and how to grasp the investment opportunities of \"ten times stocks\" bred under the tide of social structural change?</b></p><p><b>This paper will focus on the above-mentioned focus issues for detailed deduction.</b></p><p><b>Main conclusions</b></p><p>1) The essence of the demographic dividend is \"population borrowing\"-between the ages of 18 and 65, the population is the social dividend, and after the age of 65, the population is the social burden. This attribute determines that the greater the magnitude of the demographic dividend, the greater the population borrowing it extends-that is, the population burden after the age of 65.</p><p>2) In the next 5-10 years, as the first batch of \"baby boomers\" of the founding of the People's Republic of China enter the \"end of life\", the second batch of \"baby boomers\" of the post-60s will enter the \"retirement tide\" and become people in need of financial support, and the third batch of \"baby boomers\" of the post-80s will lose their \"golden childbearing age\". We believe that China's \"demographic transition\" may move to the next inflection point, that is, the fourth stage of \"accelerating aging and declining birthrate\", which will have a profound impact on the economy and capital market.</p><p>3) Re-understanding Japan's \"lost thirty years\", we find that if policies are properly responded, such as: through currency internationalization, promoting companies to go overseas to increase returns on capital; Through the reform of income distribution, narrowing the polarization between the rich and the poor, and increasing the consumption rate of the whole society to hedge against the lack of domestic demand under the aging situation, the decline of economic aggregate does not necessarily mean the decline of economic quality. On this basis, we are still optimistic about structural opportunities in the domestic capital market in the medium and long term.</p><p>4) Through the study of the success or failure of Japan's real estate regulation, the key to whether the downward trend of real estate under the aging population leads to systemic risks lies in whether the policy of \"tightening first and loosening later\" can be implemented in the two stages before and after the \"demographic transition\", so as to achieve a \"smooth\" transition of housing price trends. Since 2017, my country's strict policy tone of \"housing for living, not speculation\" and sufficient policy space reserved, as far as the foreseeable future is concerned, there is no need to worry too much about the possibility of systemic risks caused by the real estate downturn under the aging population.</p><p>5) On the basis of the huge financial pressure of aging itself in the next five years. As infants and young children themselves also need huge resources from the society and different regions have completely different responses to fertility policies, we believe that the policy of liberalizing and encouraging fertility is more likely to be steadily promoted step by step in line with national conditions, so as to reduce the burden of \"two-way impact\" of \"fertility and retirement\" on finance and the structural imbalance between regions of fertility rate on the consolidation of poverty alleviation achievements and maintaining stability.</p><p>6) The root cause of declining birthrate and aging is not policies, but an inevitable product of a country's modernization-industrialization has raised the cost of raising children and the age of marriage and childbearing for modern families, and urbanization has compressed residents' living space and increased living costs and pressures. This is the reason why the implementation effect of policies to encourage fertility in countries under different cultures and systems around the world is not satisfactory. Only a few countries that have achieved phased results, such as Russia and France, have also aggravated the structural imbalance of fertility among ethnic groups in China. The marginal utility of policies is diminishing, resulting in increasingly unbearable financial burdens.</p><p>Therefore, even if domestic policies to encourage fertility are implemented, it may be difficult to change the general trend of downward fertility rate. Therefore, we are cautious about the thematic investment opportunities of \"liberalizing fertility\" that are currently hotly speculated in the market.</p><p>7) Taking Japan as a lesson, the real medium-and long-term investment opportunities in the \"demographic transition\" may be on the \"aging side\": in the next 5-10 years, as domestic aging further intensifies,<b>Related industries around the increase of \"pure demand for the elderly\", such as: old-age care, funeral and other market space may increase rapidly;</b></p><p><b>However, the real investment opportunity of \"ten times bull stocks\" may be: under the acceleration of aging, the change of consumption mentality of the whole society-the improvement of life expectancy of young and middle-aged people and the mentality of preventing old age in advance,</b>For example, because of worries about living expenses in old age, increase<b>Insurance</b>Aspect expenditure; Because we want to delay aging, we pay more attention to health expenditure:<b>Medicines and health care, medical aesthetics, cosmeceuticals, healthy beverages</b>Will be increasingly favored; Worried about lack of company, so<b>Pet Economy</b>Prevailing.</p><p>In addition,<b>As the \"new generation consumption\" of young people born in 1995-2000 with the strongest \"inheritance of wealth from generation to generation\" and marginal consumption propensity, such as: trendy domestic products, Internet consumption</b>Etc. will also be important consumer investment opportunities under the \"demographic transition\".</p><p><b>1. \"Honecker Hypothesis\"-the essence of \"demographic dividend\" is \"population lending\"</b></p><p>On April 14, 2021, the central bank released the working paper \"Understanding and Countermeasures on my country's Demographic Transition\". Among them, the most interesting new point of view in this working paper-\"demographic transition\", that is, \"the benefits of demographic dividend must be repaid after all, and the more dividends you get before, the heavier the burden that needs to be repaid afterwards\". From an academic point of view, this sharp view actually has a profound theoretical context. The concept of \"demographic transition\" or \"population borrowing\" is elaborated in the book Population Tide: How Population Change Shapes the Modern World by Paul Moran, a famous British demographer.</p><p>In the book, \"population borrowing\" is led by an interesting story: Honecker, the last leader of East Germany, raised a question after seeing the huge gap in the average labor cost between West Germany and East Germany. At that time, the backwardness of East Germany was due to the artificial blockade of Westerners.<b>Assuming that there is no obstacle to the connection between East Germany and Western technology and capital, can East Germany finally surpass the West by taking advantage of its relatively cheap and obedient high-quality labor force to enter the global market?</b></p><p>As a matter of fact, the \"Honecker Hypothesis\" is the key to the \"development miracle\" of a series of developing countries after World War II, especially East Asian countries: through opening to the outside world, introducing western capital, making use of their own superior labor resources, and rapid urbanization and industrialization, the result is often about a generation (30-40 years), achieving the rapid development of their own economy and people's living standards, such as Japan's post-war economic miracle (1940-1980), Brazil's miracle (1948-1979) and South Korea's Hanjiang miracle (1953-1996).</p><p>But,<b>From a longer perspective, after experiencing a \"demographic dividend\" period of rapid growth for a generation, these countries are often accompanied by severe burdens of aging and declining birthrate, and fall into a quagmire of longer-term economic slowdown or even stagnation</b>Such as: Japan and South Korea's \"lost twenty years\" after the 21st century, \"Latin American trap\", etc., but ultimately failed to surpass the West.</p><p><b>The reason why \"Honecker Hypothesis\" failed to happen in practice lies in its failure to realize that the essence of \"demographic dividend\" is \"population lending\"</b>That is, before the age of 18, manpower is a kind of social resource that needs to be continuously invested (corresponding to the \"stage I of demographic transition\" in the central bank's work report), and from 18 to about 65, it is a high-quality asset that can generate rich social benefits (corresponding to the \"stage II of demographic transition\"), but after the age of 64, the demographic dividend will inevitably become a population burden due to aging-at this time, people have lost most social benefits, but need long-term continuous social assistance (corresponding to the \"stage III-IV of demographic transition\").</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea8c960e674c1afab007abf93d25d117\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This is the subtlety of the demographic dividend. Between the ages of 18-65, the population is the social dividend, and after the age of 65, the population is the social burden. This attribute determines that the greater the magnitude of the demographic dividend, the greater the population borrowing it extends-that is, the population burden after the age of 65.</p><p><b>More importantly, the underlying assumption of \"Honecker Hypothesis\": the advantage of low labor cost is essentially the abuse of demographic dividend, and abuse will more easily lead to the unsustainability of human resources and development</b>For example, while the rapid advancement of urbanization and industrialization has greatly increased residents' living costs such as housing prices, the long-term intentional maintenance of low labor costs will inevitably increase residents' living pressure and anxiety, and ultimately inevitably further weaken the population's reproduction ability, resulting in irreversible damage to the sustainable utilization of human resources.</p><p><b>2. China's \"demographic transition\" in the next five years: the \"dusk\" of three waves of \"baby boom dividends\"</b></p><p>As far as China's own \"demographic transition\" is concerned, if we say that the \"Lewis inflection point\" when the working-age population began to decrease around 2012 (from 2012 to now, the working-age population aged 16 to 60 in China has decreased by 30 million), it marks the formation of the turning point from labor surplus to shortage, that is, from the second stage to the third stage in the central bank's work report: the population size continues to grow but the growth rate slows down, and the economic growth rate changes from rising to falling, but it still keeps growing. Then, with the three waves of \"baby booms\" and \"dividends\" after the founding of the People's Republic of China in the next 5-10 years on the verge of the \"critical point\", China's \"demographic transformation\" may move towards the next turning point:</p><p>Chart 2 shows in detail the three waves of baby boomers in China since the founding of the People's Republic of China. According to the birth peaks of these three baby boomers, China's \"demographic transition\" in the next 5-10 years can be deduced:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da516a8aae9e9ba50eac7e96685c13b8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>1) Considering that the average life expectancy of our population is 75 years,<b>Born in the first wave of baby boomers in the early days of the founding of the People's Republic of China (about 20 million births every year),</b>It is expected that it will gradually enter the \"end of the life cycle\" from 5 years later. From the perspective of life cycle, the expected death of the first wave of baby boomers will be from 2025 to 2029. Based on the 10.035 million newborns announced by the Ministry of Public Security in 2020, assuming that my country's birth rate remains unchanged at this level, it is estimated that after 2025, my country's population may decrease by about 10 million per year.</p><p>2) More urgently,<b>Starting from 2022, the main baby boomer with the largest birth population in Chinese history (the \"baby boomer\" that began in 1962) will begin to enter a concentrated retirement period</b>At the same time, a 2018 study by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences showed that the number of young people in China continues to decrease, and there may be a net decrease of 30 million in the next five years. While the youth population declines, the elderly population increases, which will undoubtedly greatly increase China's financial burden.</p><p>3) At the same time, as the \"echo\" of the baby boom born in the 1960s, it is also the last \"baby boom\" in my country: from the 1985s to the early 1990s, its \"second child\" birth is the current \"mainstay\" of maintaining the fertility rate of the whole society: 2019 The proportion of second children in the year reached 57% of the birth population, and the post-80s generation was the absolute main force among second children.<b>In the next 5-10 years, these last \"baby boomers\" will also exceed 35-40 years old, that is, they will gradually lose the \"golden childbearing age\"</b>At the same time, considering the continued unilateral decline in fertility rate after 1991 and the rapid decline in fertility willingness after the 90s generation. This means that even if the state vigorously liberalizes or even encourages childbirth, it is expected that it will be difficult to achieve the expected effect of the policy.</p><p>In the next five years, the three major \"baby boom dividends\" after the founding of the People's Republic of China will gradually enter the \"dusk\". We believe that,<b>China's \"demographic transition\" may move towards the next turning point, that is, from stage III to stage IV</b>: The dependency ratio of the elderly is rising rapidly, aging and declining birthrate are serious, and economic growth is further slowing down. As investors, we need to pay close attention to the investment opportunities and risks contained in this change in social trend.</p><p><b>3. The \"Debate\" of Economic Quantity and Quality under the \"Demographic Transition\": Re-recognition of Japan's \"Lost Thirty Years\"</b></p><p>As far as the economy is concerned, in the long run, with the transition of China's population to the fourth stage (aging and declining birthrate), the general trend of economic aggregate indicators represented by GDP growth is downward or inevitable to some extent. But it should be noted that,<b>Quantity is not equal to quality, and the decline of economic aggregate under aging does not mean the inevitable decline of economic quality</b>, not to mention that the capital market loses its investment value. On the contrary, if the policy measures are appropriate in the face of the challenge of aging, the economic structure may be further optimized, and the economic quality and national competitiveness can also be improved in a new dimension.</p><p>Take Japan, the economy with the most serious aging and declining birthrate in the world, as an example. It is generally believed that Japan has entered a long period of economic recession and stagnation since the bubble burst in the 1990s. However, if we jump outside the GDP framework, is this really the case?</p><p>First, from<b>Japanese overseas assets</b>In terms of situation, according to data from the Japanese Ministry of Finance, as of the end of 2019, Japan's overseas assets were US $10 trillion, almost twice GDP, ranking fourth in the world, higher than mainland China's US $7 trillion;<b>Net assets after deducting liabilities are US $3.4 trillion, ranking first in the world for 30 consecutive years and 1.5 times that of third-ranked mainland China</b>。</p><p>In other words, Japan, which usually focuses on aging and economic recession in China, is just \"a narrow sense of Japan\", that is, Japan's mainland, another part of Japan-\"overseas Japan\" is often easily overlooked. In fact, with the saturation of Japan's domestic consumption and market under aging,<b>As early as the late 1970s, the Japanese government continuously promoted the internationalization of yen and financial opening, and guided Japanese enterprises and funds to overseas, a larger market, to make up for the lack of domestic capital return rate</b>：</p><p>According to the report \"The Secret and Enlightenment of Japanese Enterprise Longevity\" published by the Bank of Korea in 2008, among the 5,586 companies with a history of more than 200 years in the world, 3,146 have Japanese-funded shares. These high-quality companies contribute huge profits to Japan every year. For example, SoftBank of Japan is a shareholder of more than 600 companies around the world, or<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The largest shareholder; Japanese local companies are also going global on a large scale, investing and building factories overseas, and expanding overseas revenue, such as Uniqlo. In 2018, overseas revenue exceeded local revenue for the first time;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota Motors</a>In 2019, sales in China exceeded those in China for the first time.</p><p>On the basis of global competition, the competitiveness and key technology research and development capabilities of Japanese companies have always been at the leading level in the world. For example, among the number of the world's top 500 companies, Japan has maintained the second to third rankings all year round; In terms of scientific research, the number of Nobel Prize winners ranks sixth in the world, and scientists win awards almost every year. In new materials, lithography, precision machine tools, CNC<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Many other key technology fields have also maintained global leading competitiveness.</p><p>Second, just<b>Domestic Society and Consumption Structure in Japan</b>In terms of,<b>Since the downward pressure on overall domestic demand is increasing under the aging age, the need to increase the consumption rate of the whole society through social structure reform is increasingly urgent</b>: Due to the effect of diminishing marginal propensity to consume, the consumption that can be driven by the distribution of 1 yuan money to the poor is far greater than that of the rich. Therefore, the most critical factor in increasing the consumption rate of the whole society is whether the polarization between the rich and the poor can be narrowed and the number of middle class can be expanded through income distribution reform.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d5dbeebc0bc4a41298be5e3dd52b697\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As a matter of fact, since Japan began to continuously implement the income distribution reform represented by the \"income doubling plan\" in 1970s, the polarization between the rich and the poor in the whole society has decreased significantly. Looking at Gini coefficient: although the Gini coefficient of Japanese national direct income is still expanding (from 0.5 in 2000 to 0.57 in 2014), after the government's \"redistribution\", the Gini coefficient of Japanese society has dropped significantly to 0.32.<b>According to the 2019 joint report, the gap between the rich and the poor in Japan is the lowest in Asia and the top in the world (11th).</b>。</p><p>Corresponding to the advancement of income distribution plans such as income doubling, the consumption rate of the whole society in Japan has continued to rise since 1970s, effectively hedging the downward pressure of aging on domestic demand, which is the key factor for Japan to cross the \"middle income trap\". Especially after the bursting of Japan's economic bubble in the 1990s, a large number of consumer goods companies, including Uniqlo and Kobayashi Pharmaceutical, that adapted to new trends and changes, stood out and became \"ten-fold stocks\" in the Japanese stock market (we will analyze them in detail later).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6928bb57144750b196c89f043757fbc8\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In short, after the population transitions to the fourth stage of aging and declining birthrate, although Japan may have \"lost thirty years\" in a narrow sense measured by GDP, with the Japanese government<b>Internationalization of Japanese yen, income distribution</b>Vigorous reforms in other aspects,<b>Japanese companies and people \"haven't lost thirty years\"</b>On the contrary, in a sense, it has been improved, which is undoubtedly worthy of our full reference.</p><p>As far as China is concerned, in the next 5-10 years, the population transition from stage III to stage IV will certainly bring unprecedented challenges, but it should also be noted that China has planned sufficient policy responses, among which,<b>Some key measures that determine whether high-quality development can be achieved under aging conditions have also been written into the highest-level policy documents such as the \"14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Outline of Long-term Goals for 2035\"</b>, such as: implementing a higher level of opening to the outside world, \"the belt and road initiative\" and promoting the internationalization of RMB; Increase the adjustment and accuracy of taxation, social security, transfer payments, etc., give full play to the third distribution role of charity, and improve the distribution pattern of income and wealth.</p><p>Of course, the so-called \"one deployment, nine implementations\", it remains to be seen to what extent the policy can be implemented and to what extent it can hedge against the negative impact of the aging population, but at least in the next 5-10 years, China The direction of economic development towards high quality is certain.</p><p>On this basis, from the policy point of view, the decisive factor of interest rate in the medium and long term is the return on net assets of enterprises. With the aging of the population and the deepening of declining birthrate, the return on net assets of domestic local enterprises has declined.<b>Monetary policy can be expected to remain relatively loose in the medium and long term</b>, so that the interest rate matches the company's return on net assets. At the same time, the mismatch between fiscal revenue and expenditure caused by the increasing burden of pension will also limit the fiscal policy space in the future. Therefore, monetary policy will increasingly become the main means for the government to regulate the economy.</p><p>Therefore, with the improvement of economic quality and long-term reasonable and sufficient liquidity,<b>We are still optimistic about the medium and long-term allocation logic of the domestic capital market</b>At the same time, in the next five years, under the dramatic changes in my country's population and social structure, at least the capital market<b>New structural opportunities</b>Will keep emerging. So how should we grasp the investment opportunities under this \"demographic transition\"?</p><p><b>4. Will the systemic risk of real estate eventually be exposed? --The Success or Failure of Japan's Real Estate Regulation</b></p><p>Before elaborating on the specific investment opportunities in the capital market, the first thing we have to solve is the biggest potential risk of the capital market under the \"demographic transition\": the disappearance of the \"demographic dividend\" makes the population, a long-term key factor supporting real estate, begin to rapidly weaken. Under the transition of the population to aging and declining birthrate, the medium-and long-term cycle of real estate will decline or be inevitable to some extent. However, will the downward trend of the real estate cycle inevitably bring systemic risks?</p><p>From the existing international experience, it seems that this possibility cannot be ruled out: after the Plaza Accord, the yen appreciated sharply, and Japan's real estate bubble began to appear. Then, after Japan's aging and declining birthrate deepened in the 1990s and its economy grew at a low speed, the real estate bubble burst, and the plunge in house prices continued to lead to debt defaults and even bankruptcy of small and medium-sized banks. The systemic risk represented by this negative cycle is the focus that the market is most worried about under the aging transition. However, is the systemic risk of Japan's aging situation really inevitable?</p><p><b>In fact, aging is not the main reason for piercing Japan's real estate bubble and inducing systemic risks, but the improper rhythm of Japanese authorities' monetary policy-\"first loosening and then tightening\", which has led to the rapid rise and fall of Japan's housing prices and the instability of the financial system.</b>In 1986, the Bank of Japan adopted an overly loose monetary policy against the background of the appreciation of the yen. For example, in 1986, the central bank significantly reduced the benchmark interest rate from 5% to 2.5%, and while implementing the loose monetary policy, it lacked strong supervision on speculative capital at that time. As the collateral to incite a large amount of credit, the price of land is naturally inflated by speculative capital operation. This loose policy and regulatory environment brought about the bubble of real estate prices in Japan. From 1986 to 89, the housing price index in Tokyo, Japan increased from 103 to 213, and the housing prices in big cities such as Tokyo more than doubled in three years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3ed38d6126e48d012bb6845bdc0e8dc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Subsequently, the high real estate bubble forced the central bank to adopt a rapid rate hike. From 1989 to 1991, the central bank continued its rate hike, and the benchmark interest rate rapidly increased from 2.5% to 6.25%; In addition, in 1991, the Japanese government introduced the land price tax and strengthened the special land tenure tax to control the excessive rise of land prices. Eventually, it led to the bursting of the real estate bubble, in exchange for a short-term rapid decline in house prices, which increased the exposure to systemic risks. Around 1996, Japan's housing prices and land prices gradually stopped falling and stabilized, but the corporate and personal debts formed during the development of the bubble did not die out with the bursting, resulting in enterprises and individuals who relied on loans for irrational investment at that time still bear heavy debt burdens.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a8361e809b69d0e402cf76858ac7b1b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We believe that under the background of the appreciation of the yen, the Bank of Japan first encouraged the real estate bubble with the rapid loose monetary policy, and then the rapid rate hike took the initiative to puncture the rising bubble. This kind of \"loosening first and then tightening\" of real estate regulation superimposed the aging population, the deepening of declining birthrate and the economic downturn, resulted in the risk exposure of short-term bursting of the house price bubble. At the same time, the rapid decline of implied income of banks and the huge loans backed by real estate made the Japanese banking industry burden with heavy bad debts. Overlay 1997<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asian Finance</a>Under the transmission of the crisis and the bursting of the real estate bubble to the financial system, Changxin Bank, the ninth largest bank in Japan in the world, went bankrupt, which triggered a wave of bankruptcy in the banking industry.</p><p>Through the success or failure of Japan's real estate regulation, it can be seen that,<b>The key to whether the downward trend of real estate under the \"population aging transition\" leads to systemic risks lies in whether the \"smooth\" transition of housing prices can be realized in the two stages before and after the \"population transition\"</b>。</p><p>However, because short-sightedness is an inherent defect in human nature,<b>People are often used to infinitely linear extrapolation of short-term trends</b>The reason why Japan adopted the inappropriate policy of \"loosening before and tightening after\" in the process of aging transformation is that in the late 1980s, when Japan was still in the third stage of demographic transformation, Japan's international competitiveness and status were at the peak of history, and it was easy for Japanese policy makers to be overconfident-they believed that the Japanese economy could maintain rapid growth in the future and digest the rising housing prices, but they couldn't see the huge downward pressure on the economy when the subsequent aging peak came; After the aging and the establishment of the long-term inflection point of real estate, at this time, easing policies are urgently needed to hedge the downward pressure on housing prices. However, due to the thinking inertia of the bubble period, the Japanese government is worried that after the policy is relaxed, there will be a nationwide surge again, and the related easing and rescue measures are always \"half a beat slow\", thus constantly missing the \"window period\" to prevent the spread of risks.</p><p>Fortunately, at present, China's population structure is in the third stage, and housing prices still have a strong upward endogenous driving force.<b>However, the policy is far-sighted and has carried out all-round prevention of the risk of real estate overheating in advance</b>: The tone of \"housing is for living, not for speculation\" has been written into the \"Report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China\" since 2017. In the past three years, the central government and various localities have also adopted continuously stricter control measures on real estate speculation, which has curbed it to a certain extent. For example, Japan's real estate bubble in the 1990s has been crazy, and sufficient policy space has been reserved.</p><p>This means that even if my country's demographic transition enters the fourth stage of \"aging and declining birthrate\" in the next 5-10 years, even when real estate faces greater downward pressure in a certain period in the future,<b>Sufficient policy space and uncontrolled housing price \"bubble\" also make it possible to implement the policy of \"tightening before loosening after\" and promote the \"smooth transition\" of China's real estate industry</b>。 Therefore, as far as the foreseeable future is concerned, there is no need to worry too much about the possibility of systemic risks under the aging population and the downward trend of the real estate cycle.</p><p><b>5. Under the \"demographic transition\", why are we cautious about the thematic opportunities of \"encouraging fertility\"?</b></p><p>Under the increasing pressure of my country's \"demographic transition\" towards declining birthrate and aging in the next 5-10 years, since the end of last year, calls from all walks of life for full liberalization and even encouragement of childbearing have become stronger and stronger. The central bank's working paper also emphasizes this in its policy recommendations. This possible directional change in policy is the easiest and most directly conceivable investment opportunity for investors. Therefore, after the central bank's working paper was released, there was also a wave of hype on the theme of \"encouraging fertility\" and \"second child\" in the capital market. Some concept stocks related to maternal and child products even doubled their gains within ten trading days. However, under the \"demographic transition\", can the policy of \"encouraging fertility\" really continue to exceed expectations? If the policy is introduced, can it reverse the trend of \"declining birthrate\"?</p><p>First, just<b>Policy process</b>In other words, we believe that some experts and scholars in the current society, seeing the decline in fertility rate, demand \"immediate and urgent liberalization of fertility\", and even advocate changing \"family planning\" and \"the back team into the front team\"-the idea of \"encouraging fertility\" by compulsory methods such as disguised taxation of single and only-child families may be one-sided, ignoring the more important than the total population<b>Demographic structure.</b></p><p>As the essence of \"demographic dividend\" in the previous article is analyzed in \"population lending\": before the age of 18, the population is a \"burden\" that needs to constantly consume social resources for investment and support, and only after nearly 20 years of long investment can it be converted into high-quality assets that generate rich social benefits. In the next 5-10 years, the largest \"post-60s baby boom\" in China's history will enter the retirement period. On the basis of the continuous and rapid growth of retired elderly over 60-65 years old every year,<b>If the \"comprehensive childbirth encouragement policy\" really comes into effect as scheduled, and there are a large number of new \"baby boomers\" in the society who urgently need continuous investment, the government's financial burden and the overall social support burden will face \"the two-way impact of baby boom and retirement tide\" in 10 years or even longer.</b>The impact of this on the financial pressure of our government, high-quality economic development and residents' living standards cannot be underestimated.</p><p>More importantly, due to the imbalance of regional development in China, the population of different regions and social strata has significantly different responses to the policy of encouraging birth: after the two-child policy was fully liberalized in 2016, the three places with the highest birth rates were Shandong (17.54 ‰), Tibet (16 ‰) and Xinjiang (15.88 ‰), while among the six provinces with negative growth, three were municipalities directly under the Central Government (Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai), and the other three were all from Northeast China.</p><p>This means that,<b>Areas where the policy hopes to encourage childbearing: the most aging areas (the three northeastern provinces) and the labor-intensive provinces (municipalities directly under the Central Government, etc.) do not respond well to the policy. On the contrary, the more \"old, young, border and poor\" the population responds best to the policy of encouraging childbearing, and the new population in these areas has increased significantly, which will add new burdens to the consolidation of the hard-won achievements of \"poverty alleviation\" and social stability maintenance work</b>。 This structural difference, which is contrary to the original intention of liberalizing the birth policy, is expected to be more obvious in the subsequent implementation of policies such as comprehensive liberalization and encouragement.</p><p>In fact, the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Outline of Long-term Goals in 2035 set the tone of my country's fertility policy in a relatively safe and prudent manner: promoting the realization of moderate fertility levels, optimizing fertility policies, and promoting Long-term balanced population development.<b>We predict that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, policies to encourage fertility, such as liberalizing the \"three-child\", fully liberalizing fertility and even rewarding fertility, may be steadily promoted in a step-by-step model that is in line with national conditions</b>, which means that the pace of policy implementation is different from the \"radical model\" of \"immediate and urgent comprehensive liberalization\" expected by hot funds in the current capital market.</p><p>Secondly, as far as the effect after the implementation of the policy is concerned, compared with the view that some public opinions attribute the current \"declining birthrate\" to the family planning policy and believe that the fertility rate will rise significantly after the policy changes direction, we believe that, as stated in the central bank's working paper,<b>In a sense, declining birthrate and aging are the inevitable outcome of a country's modernization</b>Since it is an inevitable trend, it does not depend on the subjective intention of policy makers:</p><p><b>Looking at the implementation effects of fertility encouragement policies in various countries under different cultures and systems around the world, we can find that once a country's industrialization and urbanization reach a certain height, no matter what intensity and form of fertility encouragement policies, it is difficult to change the fertility rate in the long run. downward trend</b>。</p><p>From Figure 7, the comparison table of fertility rates before and after the implementation of policies and policies in various countries around the world (the table includes: East Asian culture represents Japan and South Korea, typical countries of western civilization France and Germany, Orthodox civilization represents Russia and Islamic civilization represents Iran), it can be found that when a country's total fertility rate (TFR) drops below the generation replacement level of 2.1, countries vigorously take measures to encourage fertility: for example, Russia provides hundreds of thousands of rubles for Russian families with second and more children. If you give birth to a child in Japan, you can directly receive maternity benefits of more than 400,000 yen; France's policy of encouraging childbirth has been implemented for more than 60 years, and the annual related fiscal expenditure has reached 83 billion euros.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f757746bb2b8259f32a0839ccf48bb2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"581\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although the strength and determination of the measures to encourage fertility in the above-mentioned countries are not small, and some have even exhausted all the possibilities of the policy, the actual effect is \"unsatisfactory\":</p><p>First, after vigorously implementing childbirth encouragement in all countries, the total fertility rate (TFR) level has not reached the policy benchmark target of 2.1 generation replacement level (the highest does not exceed 1.85);</p><p>Second, countries with different cultures respond significantly differently to policies to encourage fertility. Among them,<b>East Asian culture is the least sensitive to policy response to encouraging fertility</b>, the fertility rate of Japan, South Korea, and Singapore remains at a low level or is still declining after implementing the policy of vigorously encouraging fertility;</p><p>Third, some European countries such as Russia and France have implemented policies to vigorously encourage fertility, and the overall fertility rate has achieved certain results.<b>But in fact, there are two hidden dangers</b>：</p><p><ul><li><b>1) Ethnic minorities have become the main body of the increase in fertility rate, and the fertility situation between the main ethnic groups and ethnic minorities is further imbalanced</b>: The total fertility rate (TFR) of ethnic Russians is below 1.6, while that of Muslims in their territories (such as Chechnya) is as high as 3.2 or above. As a result, in the past 20 years, the Russian population has decreased by nearly 14 million, while the Muslim population in their territories The number has exceeded 16%, reaching 25 million; France, on the other hand, welcomes African populations, especially immigrants from historical French colonial countries, and provides maternity subsidies to blacks. The more children they have, the higher the subsidies, resulting in an increase in the overall fertility rate.<b>In the above two countries, the proportion of ethnic minorities with huge cultural differences has increased rapidly, and the deep-seated structural problems in society have intensified, which is one of the important reasons for the increase of social instability in the above two countries in recent years</b>。</p><p></li><li><b>2) Encourage the phenomenon of diminishing \"marginal utility\" of birth policies, that is, when policies such as maternity subsidies are vigorously implemented, the fertility rate will increase rapidly within 1-2 years, and then when people begin to get used to maternity subsidies, the fertility rate will increase again. Entering the downward channel, we can only continue to rely on greater subsidy stimulus, which will bring an increasing burden on the finance</b>For example: After the implementation of the \"Mother Fund\" project in Russia in 2007, Russia's birth rate once increased by 30% in a short period of time, but starting from 2017, Russia's fertility rate has continued to decrease every year, from 1.62 in 2017 to 2019 It is 1.5, and it is increasingly difficult to reach the policy target of 1.75 for the fertility rate in 2024.</p><p></li></ul><b>Fourthly, it is worth noting that even Iran, the representative of Muslim civilization, is the culture and religion that most emphasizes fertility in Chinese people's impression, has seen a rapid decline in fertility rate after industrialization and urbanization</b>(The number of births per woman in Iran dropped from 7 in 1960s to 1.8 in 2010), and after Iran completely abolished family planning in 2012, Iran still adopted policies such as spending more than 190 billion riyals every year to encourage childbearing and prohibiting all sterilization operations. However, in the past ten years since the implementation of the policy, Iran's fertility rate has only slightly risen to barely reaching the level of generation replacement, and the tradition of super-high fertility rate is no longer there.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0583b9424a7e9e252e6de4b206c9c7e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>There are profound reasons behind the poor effectiveness of the policies to encourage fertility in the above-mentioned countries and the inability to change the downward trend of fertility rate:<b>The reason for the decline in fertility rate is not policy, but modernization, especially industrialization and urbanization</b>：</p><p><b>On the one hand, industrialized society has strict requirements for the level of science and technology</b>Forcing residents to improve their children's education level at all costs in order to adapt their children to future needs. This not only makes the education level of modern society dramatically improve, but also<b>It greatly raises the cost of raising children in modern families and exacerbates the later marriage of the next generation, thereby weakening their reproductive potential</b>。</p><p><b>On the other hand, compared with the self-sufficient life of farming civilization, urbanization greatly reduces residents' living space</b>(It can be seen from Figure 9 that living density has a decisive impact on the fertility rate. Western European countries where more than half of the households live in apartment buildings have experienced fertility disasters without exception, while countries where the proportion is only 1/3 have significantly improved.) At the same time,<b>And greatly increase the living cost of residents</b>: The bills of housing, medical care, transportation and other expenses bring endless life pressure to citizens, forcing citizens to increase their work intensity day and night, which certainly provides sufficient impetus for economic development.<b>But such a pressing life leaves citizens with little time and energy to raise children</b>。 In this case, the rapid decline of fertility rate is also inevitable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/827675adb1874618776c9d693fa9ba94\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Finally,<b>The progress of modern medicine and science and technology not only greatly prolongs the life span of the modern society, but also brings about the aging of the population and causes unprecedented financial burden to the modern country</b>: Take our country as an example. Before the founding of the People's Republic of China, in the long era of feudal farming, our country's average life expectancy was maintained below 40 years old for a long time. This is certainly a symbol of backward social development, but it keeps the population structure youthful and energetic enough; After the founding of the People's Republic of China, with industrialization and modernization, the average life expectancy has also reached 75 years today. This certainly reflects the great improvement of the per capita living standard, but to some extent, it also means that the proportion of weak, weak but long-lived old people in the whole society is getting higher and higher, while the proportion of young people with working ability is declining. As mentioned earlier, this will bring great challenges to China's finance.</p><p>Since the essence of declining birthrate and aging lies in the modernization of society, especially the two cornerstones of modernization-industrialization and urbanization. Modernization is the direction of national and social progress and the general trend of history. It is beyond doubt that it can enhance the country's comprehensive national strength and improve personal living standards. As the saying goes, \"there is no way out for pause and retrogression\". Then, on the other hand, the trend of declining birthrate and aging is difficult to change-the policy can only delay the slope at best, but cannot reverse the direction.<b>In the face of such a general trend, trying to speculate on the relaxation of policies, the investment direction of rapid recovery in fertility rate can only be a \"flash in the pan\" after all.</b>。</p><p>As an investor, since aging and declining birthrate are historical necessity to some extent, it is better to embrace the investment opportunities bred by the \"turning era\" instead of confronting the general trend. With reference to the experience of Japan and other countries, we believe that,<b>Compared with the fertility end, the other end of the \"demographic transition\": investment opportunities bred by changes in social structure and consumption trends under aging, or a \"gathering place\" for real long-term \"ten-fold bull stocks\"</b>。</p><p><b>6. Under the \"population transition\", where are the real \"ten-fold stock\" investment opportunities in the capital market?</b></p><p><b>1. The most direct idea: pay attention to the increase of \"pure elderly needs\"</b></p><p>Under the aging age, one of the most direct investment ideas is to pay attention to sub-sectors closely related to the lives of the elderly, such as elderly care, chronic disease medical care, funeral industry, etc. We still learn from the consumption of the elderly in Japan's aging society. In 2016, the number of elderly people over 65 years old in Japan exceeded 30 million, accounting for about 22% of the total population; Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare predicts that by 2025, the post-war baby boomer generation in Japan will reach the super-old age over 75 years old, and the number of elderly people over 65 years old is expected to be 37 million, accounting for 30% of the total population. Under the concept of \"dependence for the elderly\", industries such as medical care and old-age housing services have been determined to become the growth points of Japan's economy after 2025. Wherein,</p><p><ul><li>1) The market space of Japan's funeral industry is twice that of China. According to the comparative data of Sino-Japanese funeral industry disclosed by scholar Jiang Yuyu in \"Comparison of Japanese Funeral and Sino-Japanese Funeral\", the annual death toll in Japan has been about 1.3 million since it entered deep aging, and there are more than 6,000 funeral enterprises in China, with an annual industry turnover of about 160 billion yuan. However, the annual death toll in China is about 9 million, the total number of funeral service institutions in China is 4,300, and the market size of the funeral industry is only 70 billion yuan, which is less than half that of Japan under the same funeral culture.</p><p></li><li>2) The elderly care service industry will continue to prosper with the aging of the population, and the Japanese government guides social investment in the nursing industry. Taking Japan as an example, the deeply aging medical care has increased the financial burden of the government. After 2004, Japan formulated important policies such as the Elderly Welfare Law, the Elderly Health Care Law and the Nursing Insurance Law to encourage social capital to participate in the nursing industry, and the aged care industry has developed rapidly. According to data from the Qianzhan Research Institute, the market size of my country's elderly care industry increased to 5.6 trillion yuan in 2018, a year-on-year growth rate of 17.9%; It is expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan by 2024, with an average annual growth rate of about 20%. We predict that as my country moves towards a deeply aging society, the growth rate of consumer demand for \"pure elderly people\" such as medical care and personal care may increase significantly.</p><p></li></ul><b>It is worth noting that although the above-mentioned increase in \"pure elderly demand\" closely related to the lives of the elderly is a certain trend, from the perspective of the capital market, the relevant segmentation has never produced \"ten times stocks\" in the past 20 years.</b>。 Part of the reason may be that due to the effect of \"life wealth curve\", the consumption and income of the elderly are the weakest among all ages in society, so it is not the best choice from the perspective of investment. So where is the real \"ten-fold bull stock\" investment opportunity under the \"demographic transition\"?</p><p><b>2. Under the \"demographic transition\", the real \"ten-fold bull stock\" and \"gathering place\": changes in the consumption mentality of young and middle-aged people under the aging</b></p><p>We have always emphasized that changes in consumer mentality should be given higher weight in the grasp of consumer trends and investment opportunities.<b>The internal impact of the aging of population structure on social consumption lies in the change of the whole society's expectation of life cycle. Among them, young and middle-aged people, as the group with the highest marginal consumption propensity, often dominate the changes in their consumption mentality and consumption habits in a certain historical stage. The direction of changes in the consumer industry.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43df303e73e7222a54d6c3ef92baebc9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"674\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Take the segmentation track of \"ten-fold stocks\" in the consumer sector after the bursting of the Japanese stock market bubble in 1995 as an example. Japan began to enter the social stage of \"low consumption desire\" in the middle and late 1990s. During the period of switching between growth and population, \"ten-fold stocks\" in consumer fields such as cost-effective clothing represented by Uniqlo, health products and beauty cosmeceuticals represented by ARATA appeared.</p><p>We believe that the ten-fold stocks that appeared in the era of low-speed growth have obvious characteristics: during the period of economic growth shifting, the trend of aging + declining birthrate continues to deepen, and after the era when all companies can grow comes to an end, \"companies that conform to the consumption trend\" \"Emerging segmented track\" companies are beginning to see strong growth opportunities. The trend of rational consumption by social residents has begun to rise. From 1995 to 2020, the consumption stocks that \"crossed the bulls and bears\" were concentrated in cost-effective clothing retail, leisure products, auto parts, cosmetics, functional health food and beverages and other subdivisions.</p><p>With<b>Fast Retailing, which ranks first in range gains</b>For example, Fast Retailing Group is a Japanese holding company mainly engaged in clothing business. Its UNIQLO division sells casual clothing under the brand name UNIQLO in Japan's domestic market and overseas markets. As the number of new people decreases year by year and the Japanese market is saturated, the younger generation has put forward higher requirements for product quality and cost performance. Uniqlo's simple style and high-quality fabric research and development cater to the rational consumption view of Japanese young people under the \"low desire\".</p><p>For another example,<b>ARATA, a leading retail supplier of cosmeceuticals and health products</b>For example, it provides upstream and downstream supply chain services for fast-moving consumer goods for Japanese first-line companies. The upstream connects with more than 1,200 suppliers (Shiseido, Kobayashi Pharmaceutical, etc.) to obtain goods, and a large number of goods and services reach 3,500 downstream retailers (Matsumoto Kiyoshi,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00984\">AEON</a>Etc.). ARATA is the core supplier of all leading drugstores in Japan, and its internal logic is to meet the needs of young people for cosmetics and health care daily necessities under the aging of Japan.</p><p>From the above-mentioned review on Japanese \"ten times stocks\", it can be seen that,<b>Under the \"demographic transition\", the real long-term bull stock investment opportunities may lie in: the change of the consumption mentality of the whole society under the acceleration of aging-the anxiety of young and middle-aged people about the increase in life expectancy and the prevention of old age in advance.</b></p><p><b>1) Because they are worried about the decline in quality of life after old age, young and middle-aged people's awareness of purchasing insurance has increased significantly:</b>According to data from the Japan Life Insurance Association, Japan's insurance density was 7.7% in 2018, exceeding the world average of 5.4%, and its premium income market share ranked third in the world. From 1990 to 2000, when Japan's economic growth was low and its aging society was formed, the development of Japanese insurance industry gradually matured. With the improvement of products and the upgrading of services, China's insurance industry may also accelerate its development in the gradual aging era. The \"Growth Engine of China's Life Insurance Market in the Next Five Years: Product Protection Upgrade and Innovation\" released by McKinsey & Company pointed out that compared with the 5%-10% life insurance penetration rate in mature markets, the Chinese market in 2019 was only about 3%. The penetration rate of insurance products will benefit from the deepening of the aging process and gradually increase.</p><p><b>2) Because they are afraid of getting old, young and middle-aged people do everything possible to delay aging and retain their youth. Therefore, sub-industries such as pharmaceuticals and health care, medical beauty, cosmeceuticals and health beverages continue to grow at a high rate.</b>In the past 20 years, the proportion of Japanese households' expenditure on health care has increased relatively high. In the consumption structure of medical care, the average proportions of medical services, medical supplies and appliances, medicines, and medical health products are 56.4%, 17.3%, 17.2%, and 9.0% respectively.</p><p>For example, Japan<b>Kobayashi Pharma</b>Recently, it has been sought after by consumers. Kobayashi Pharmaceutical is an all-round enterprise, committed to developing daily necessities, medicines, medical devices, daily necessities, and food that can meet all the needs of consumers, and has launched a variety of highly acclaimed cosmeceuticals. Popular products include: liquid band-aid, cream-type smear, VC whitening and freckle-removing cream, heat dissipation patch, etc.</p><p><b>In fact, this change in consumption mentality has begun to be gradually reflected in related industries in China in recent years. For example, the main consumer of medical and health products in China is no longer the elderly over 60 years old, but the huge incremental market of young and middle-aged people.</b>In recent years, the \"health preservation\" of the post-90s generation has quietly emerged. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">Ali Health</a>According to the data of \"2017 Health Consumption Report\", young people aged 18-29 account for more than 50% of healthy consumers. The post-90s and post-00s pay more attention to health and maintenance than the previous generation, and even break the boundaries of gender and age. 2018 Domestic Health Products Leading<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300146\">BY-HEALTH</a>Targeting young consumer groups who pursue \"beauty, fashion and health\", vigorously promoting the \"rejuvenation\" of products, boosting its e-commerce online channel revenue in 2020 to increase by 62.77% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da0de57e74212787492e566f08f01c25\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) The pet economy is booming because of worries about loneliness and lack of companionship in old age.</b>According to the data disclosed by Kailuo Insights, the pet market has reached 98 billion yuan since 2010, and the average annual growth rate of the industry scale by 2020 may maintain 18%. However, the domestic household pet ownership rate is only about 4%-5%, which is far less than 38% of Japanese household pet ownership rate. The aging trend has enhanced the active consumption willingness of pets for psychological care needs in families in the whole society, and the prosperity of related pet food and pet medical segments may be further improved.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f1c27e1800f8a9c35e7b9458e7e5ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Under the \"demographic transition\", the \"new generation of young people\" will be the \"leader\" of consumption trends</b></p><p>According to our research on generational consumption in Japan, the \"younger generation\" is the main force leading the consumption trend in Japan's \"economic downturn\". For example, in the 1990s, in the era of Japan's economic downturn, the next generation of masses (children of post-war baby boomers) had a sharp psychological contrast due to the high expectations stimulated by high economic growth and the cruel reality of economic downturn and class solidification after work. This psychological contrast has shaped its \"low desire\" consumption habit that pays more attention to simplicity and high cost performance. Around 2000, Japanese consumer society saw the rise of a new generation of leading consumer goods companies represented by Uniqlo, Daiso and MUJI.<b>It is the product of adapting to this change in consumption habits</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73e79e4e429cba788f382c27cbd07a99\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At present, for China, the similarity of population structure between China and Japan and the social background of increasing differentiation mean that the aging may have similar changes in the consumption expectation of the whole society.<b>The post-95s-post-00s generation who inherit \"generational wealth\" is the group with the greatest consumption potential, and the \"new consumption\" they lead is also the most obvious consumption segmentation among them.</b>China's post-95-00 generation was born in the 1990s. In the era of rapid development of communication and information technology, the impact of multiculturalism brought by globalization and informatization profoundly affected their values and made them more dependent on<b>Online convenient diversified consumption</b>。 This change has driven<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">Douyin</a>The rapid development of online video social retail and interactive platforms such as Kuaishou and Bilibili; In terms of the concept of consumer culture, the growth background of China's rapid macroeconomic growth drives the new generation to have stronger national self-confidence and cultural self-confidence. Its strong cultural self-confidence has also driven \"<b>Trendy domestic products</b>\"The rise of; The growing single group of younger generations has also spawned an increasingly popular<b>\"Single economy\" and \"stay-at-home economy\".</b></p><p>From this perspective, no matter from the review of Japanese consumer industry tenfold stocks, or from the enlightenment of generational consumption changes, we can see that under the background of the gradual acceleration of an aging society, the \"long-distance running champion\" of the stock market is still locked in the marginal consumption. For groups with high propensity, companies that adapt to and accurately target the changes in consumption trends of young people in the \"new generation\".</p><p>Risk warning: the risk of economic stall under aging, the deterioration of the geopolitical situation beyond expectations, the risk of deviation in the measurement of the scale of population changes in the article, etc.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af47ab6c10e46f0aea6733871f311696","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157007346","content_text":"徐驰、张文宇\n近期央行发布《关于我国人口转型的认识和应对之策》工作论文，以及第七次人口普查结果的公布在即，引发社会各界对于“人口红利”、“生育率”等话题的热议，并引起资本市场的广泛关注，有关“放开生育”的概念股近期亦大涨。事实上，自去年底各地公布2020年新生儿人口出现断崖式下跌消息以来，关于“少子化”“老龄化”等人口议题和要求“立即、刻不容缓的全面放开生育政策”的声音亦“不绝于耳”。\n人口红利的本质究竟是什么？未来5年，三波婴儿潮“临界点”下，我国人口形势又将面临怎样的“转折”？“人口转型”之下，经济总量，特别是地产的下行似乎难以避免，但这一定意味着经济质量的下行与系统性风险的暴露吗？从全球经验来看，生育政策是否真的是决定出生率的关键？全面放开与鼓励生育政策又是否可以“药到病除”？“人口转型”下，资本市场又将如何演绎，如何把握社会结构变革大潮下所孕育的“十倍股”的投资机会？\n本文将重点围绕上述几个焦点问题进行详细推演。\n主要结论\n1）人口红利的本质是“人口借贷”——在18-65岁之间，人口是社会红利，在65岁之后，人口是社会负担。这种属性决定了，人口红利的量级越大，其所延伸的人口借贷——即65岁后的人口负担将越大。\n2）未来5-10年，伴随第一批建国“婴儿潮”进入“寿终正寝期”，第二批60后“婴儿潮”步入“退休潮”下变为需要财政供养人员，第三批80后“婴儿潮”失去“黄金生育年龄”，我们认为，我国“人口转型”可能走向下一个拐点，即“老龄化与少子化加速”的第Ⅳ阶段，这将对经济与资本市场产生深远影响。\n3）对日本“失去三十年”的再认知，我们发现，如若政策应对得当，比如：通过货币国际化，推动企业走向海外，以提升资本回报率；通过收入分配改革，缩小贫富分化，并提升全社会消费率，以对冲老龄化下内需不足，则经济总量的下行并不一定意味着经济质量的下行。在此基础上，我们仍中长期看好国内资本市场结构性机会。\n4）通过对日本房地产调控的成败之鉴研究，人口老龄化下房地产的下行是否导致系统性风险的关键在于能否在“人口转型”的前后两个阶段，通过实施“前紧后松”的政策，以实现房价走势的“平滑化”过渡。2017年以来，我国严格的“房住不炒”政策基调以及预留的充足政策空间，就可以预期的未来而言，无需过于担忧人口老龄化下，房地产下行引发系统性风险的可能性。\n5）在未来5年老龄化本身对财政巨大压力的基础上。由于婴幼儿本身亦需要社会巨大资源投入以及不同区域对于生育政策的截然不同的反应程度，我们认为，放开及鼓励生育的政策更可能采取循序渐进符合国情的模式稳妥推进，以减少“生育与退休”对财政“双向冲击”及生育率区域间的结构性失衡对扶贫攻坚成果巩固和维稳等工作的负担。\n6）少子化与老龄化的根源并非政策，而是一个国家现代化的必然产物—工业化抬高了现代家庭抚养子女的成本与婚育年龄，城市化压缩了居民居住空间并增加了生活成本与压力。这是全球不同文化、体制下的各国鼓励生育政策实施效果均不尽如意的原因，仅有的少数取得阶段性成效的国家如：俄、法等，亦有加剧国内族裔间生育结构性失衡，政策效用边际递减，造成财政负担日益难以承担等问题。\n因此，即便国内鼓励生育类政策落地，恐怕也难以改变生育率下行的大趋势，故我们对于当前市场热炒的“放开生育”类主题性投资机会持谨慎态度。\n7）以日本为鉴，“人口转型”真正的中长期投资机会或在“老龄化端”：未来5-10年，伴随国内老龄化进一步加剧，围绕“纯老年需求”增加的相关行业，如：养老护理、殡葬等市场空间或快速增加；\n但真正的“十倍牛股”投资机会或在：老龄化加速下，全社会消费心态的变化——中青年人对预期寿命的提高及提前防老的心态，如：因为担心年老后生活开支，故增加保险方面支出；因为希望延缓衰老，故更加注重健康方面支出：药品保健、医美、药妆、健康饮料将越来越受青睐；因为担心缺少陪伴，故宠物经济盛行。\n另外，作为“世代财富传承”及边际消费倾向最强的95-00后年轻人的“新世代消费”，如：新潮国货、互联网消费等亦将是“人口转型”下重要的消费投资机遇。\n一、“昂纳克假设”——“人口红利”的本质是“人口借贷”\n2021年4月14日，央行发布了《关于我国人口转型的认识和应对之策》这一工作论文。其中，本次工作论文中最为引人关注的新观点——“人口转型”，即：“人口红利得到的好处终究是要偿还的，且以前得到的红利越多，事后需要偿还的负担越重”。从学术角度看，这一犀利的观点事实上是有着深刻的理论脉络的。“人口转型”或者说“人口借贷”这一观念在英国著名人口学学者保罗·莫兰的《人口浪潮：人口变迁如何塑造现代世界》书中被详细阐述。\n在书中，“人口借贷”由一个有趣的故事引出：东德最后一任领袖昂纳克在看到西德与东德平均用工成本巨大的差距之后，提出一个疑问，当时东德的落后是由于被西方人为封锁所致，假设东德与西方技术、资本的联系没有阻碍，那么东德利用相对廉价、顺从的高素质劳动力的优势进军全球市场，能否最终实现东德对西方的超越呢？\n事实上，“昂纳克假设”正是二战后一系列发展中国家，特别是东亚各国“发展奇迹”的关键所在：通过对外开放，引进西方资本，利用本国优势的劳动力资源，快速城市化与工业化，其结果往往在一代人左右的时间（30-40年），实现本国经济与人民生活水平的飞跃式发展，如：日本战后经济奇迹（1940-1980），巴西奇迹（1948-1979），韩国汉江奇迹（1953-1996）等。\n但是，从更长维度时间看，这些国家在经历了一代人快速增长的“人口红利”期后，往往伴随严重的老龄化与少子化负担，陷入更长期的经济增速放缓甚至是停滞的泥潭，如：日本、韩国在21世纪后“失去的二十年”、“拉美陷阱”等，而最终亦未能实现对西方的超越。\n“昂纳克假设”之所以在实践中未能发生，究其根源在于其并未认识到“人口红利”的本质是“人口借贷”，即：人力在18岁之前，是一种需要被不断投资的社会资源（对应央行工作报告中“人口转型的第I阶段”），从18岁到大约65岁，则是能够产生丰厚的社会收益的优质资产（对应“人口转型的第II阶段”），但到了64岁后，人口红利将因为老化不可避免地变成人口负担——此时的人已经丧失了大部分社会效益，反而需要长期不断的社会扶助（对应“人口转型的第III-IV阶段”）。\n\n这就是人口红利的微妙之处，在 18-65岁之间，人口是社会红利，在65岁之后，人口是社会负担。这种属性决定了，人口红利的量级越大，其所延伸的人口借贷——即65岁后的人口负担也将越大。\n更重要的是，“昂纳克假说”的潜在假设：低劳动力成本优势，本质是对人口红利的滥用，而滥用将更容易导致人力资源和发展的不可持续性，比如：城市化和工业化的快速推进在大幅增加居民房价等生活成本的同时，对低劳动力成本的长期有意维持，必然会增加居民生活压力与焦虑感，最终不可避免地进一步削弱人口的繁衍能力，使得人力资源的持续性利用出现不可逆的损伤。\n二、未来五年我国的“人口转型”：三波“婴儿潮红利”的“黄昏”\n就我国自身的“人口转型”而言，如果说，2012年左右劳动力适龄人口开始减少的“刘易斯拐点”形成（从2012年至今，我国16周岁至60周岁的劳动年龄人口减少了3000万），标志着劳动力过剩向短缺的转折点的形成，也即由央行工作报告中的第II阶段向第III阶段转变：人口规模继续增长但增速放缓，经济增速由升转降，但仍保持增长。那么伴随未来5-10年我国建国后的三波“婴儿潮”“红利”濒临“临界点”，我国“人口转型”可能走向下一个拐点：\n图表2中详细划分了建国以来我国的三波婴儿潮。根据这三波婴儿潮的出生高峰，可以推演未来5-10年我国的“人口转型”：\n\n1） 考虑到我国人口平均寿命为75岁，出生在建国初期的第一波婴儿潮（每年出生人口约2000万），预计或将从 5年后开始逐渐进入“生命周期的尾声”。从生命周期来看，第一波婴儿潮的预期死亡会在2025~2029年，结合公安部公布的2020年新生儿1003.5万，假设我国出生率维持这一水平不变而推演，预计2025年后，我国人口每年或净减少1000万左右。\n2） 更为迫切的是，从2022年开始，中国历史上出生人口最多的主力婴儿潮（1962开始的“婴儿潮”），开始进入集中退休期，同时，2018年中国社会科学院研究显示，中国青年人口的数量正在持续减少，未来五年或将净减少3000万人。青年人口下降的同时老年人口增加，这无疑将极大增加我国财政负担。\n3） 与此同时，作为60后婴儿潮的“回声”，也是我国最后的“婴儿潮”：85后-90初，其“二胎”生育是当前维持全社会生育率的“中流砥柱”：2019年二孩占出生人口比例达57%，而二胎中又以80后为绝对主力。而在未来5-10年，这批最后的“婴儿潮”亦将超过35-40岁，即逐渐失去“黄金生育年龄”，同时，考虑到1991年后，生育率的持续单边下行及90后生育意愿的快速降低。这意味着，即便国家大力放开甚至鼓励生育，预计亦很难达到政策预期的效果。\n在未来五年建国后的三大“婴儿潮红利”均逐步步入“黄昏”之下，我们认为，我国“人口转型”可能走向下一个拐点，即由第III阶段向第IV阶段转变：老年抚养比快速上升，老龄化与少子化严重，经济增长进一步放缓。作为投资者需要高度关注这一社会大势变化下所蕴含的投资机遇与风险。\n三、“人口转型”下经济数量与质量之“辩”：对日本“失去三十年”的再认知\n就经济而言，长期来看，伴随我国人口向第IV阶段（老龄化与少子化）转型，以GDP增速为代表的经济总量指标大趋势下行方向或是某种程度的必然。但需要注意的是，数量不等于质量，老龄化下经济总量下行并不意味着经济质量的必然下行，更不意味着资本市场失去投资价值。相反，如果面临老龄化挑战下，政策举措得当，则经济结构或可得到进一步优化，经济质量与国家竞争力亦可在新的维度获得提升。\n以全球老龄化与少子化最为严重的经济体——日本为例，一般认为，日本自90年代泡沫破裂后进入经济长时间衰退与停滞。然而，如果我们跳出GDP框架，情况真的如此吗？\n首先，从日本海外资产情况来看，根据日本财务省的数据，截至2019年末，日本海外资产10万亿美元，几乎是GDP的2倍，名列全球第四，高于中国大陆的7万亿美元；扣除负债后的净资产是3.4万亿美元，更是连续30年位居全球第一，是第三名中国大陆的1.5倍。\n也就是说，平时国内聚焦的老龄化，经济衰退的日本，仅仅是“一个狭义的日本”，即：日本本土，日本的另一部分——“海外日本”往往容易被忽视。事实上，伴随老龄化下日本国内消费与市场的饱和，日本政府早在70年代末开始就不断通过推动日元国际化与金融开放，引导日本企业、资金走向海外这个更大的市场以弥补国内资本回报率的不足：\n根据韩国银行 2008年发表的《日本企业长寿的秘密及启示》的报告书披露，在全球超过200年历史的5586家公司之中，有3146家都有日资的股份。这些优质公司，每年为日本贡献庞大的收益，如：日本软银，是全球600多家公司的股东，还是阿里巴巴的最大股东；日本本土企业也在大规模走出去，在海外投资建厂，扩大海外收益，如：优衣库，2018年海外收益首次超过本土；丰田汽车，2019年在华销量首次超过本土。\n在全球竞争的基础上，日本企业的竞争力与关键技术研发能力也一直处于全球领先水平，如：全球五百强企业数量中，日本常年维持第2至第3排名；科研方面，诺贝尔奖获奖人数全球第6，几乎每年都有科学家获奖。在新材料、光刻机、精密机床、数控机器人等诸多关键技术领域亦保持全球领先的竞争力。\n其次，就日本国内社会与消费结构而言，既然老龄化下，整体内需下行压力越来越大，那么通过社会结构改革，提升全社会消费率的需求就愈发迫切：由于边际消费倾向递减的效应，同样1元钱分配给穷人能够带动的消费要远远大于富人，因此提升全社会消费率最关键的因素就是能否通过收入分配改革，缩小贫富分化，扩大中产阶层数量。\n\n事实上，自日本70年代开始不断推行以“收入倍增计划”为代表的收入分配改革后，全社会贫富分化显著降低，以基尼系数看：尽管日本国民直接收入的基尼系数仍呈扩大态势（从2000年的0.5上升至2014年的0.57），但经过政府“再分配”后，日本社会基尼系数显著下降为0.32，根据2019年联合报告，日本贫富差距为全亚洲最低，在全球亦属顶尖（第11名）。\n与收入倍增等收入分配计划推进相对应地，日本自70年代起，全社会消费率整体持续上行，有效的对冲了老龄化加速对内需下行的压力，是日本跨越“中等收入陷阱”的关键因素。特别是在90年代日本经济泡沫破裂后，包括优衣库、小林制药在内的一大批适应新趋势变化的消费品公司脱颖而出，成为日本股市的“十倍股”（我们在后文将详细分析）。\n\n总之，人口转型到老龄化、少子化的第IV阶段后，尽管以GDP衡量的狭义日本本土或许“失去了三十年”，但伴随日本政府在日元国际化、收入分配等方面大力度的改革，日本企业与百姓并“没有失去三十年”，反而在某种意义上，获得了提升，这无疑是值得我们充分借鉴的。\n就我国而言，未来5-10年，人口由第III阶段向第IV阶段转变固然会带来前所未有的挑战，但也要看到，我国在政策上已筹划了充足的应对，其中，一些决定老龄化下能否高质量发展的关键举措，也已写入《国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要》等最高规格政策文件，如：实行更高水平对外开放，“一带一路”，推进人民币国际化；加大税收、社会保障、转移支付等调节力度和精准性，发挥慈善等第三次分配作用，改善收入和财富分配格局等。\n当然，所谓“一份部署，九份落实”，政策能在多大程度上落地，又能在多大程度上对冲人口老龄化带来的负面冲击仍有待观察，但至少未来5-10年，中国经济向高质量方向发展的方向是确定的。\n在此基础上，从政策角度看，利率在中长期的决定因素是企业净资产收益率。伴随人口老龄化与少子化程度加深，国内本土企业净资产回报率下行，货币政策在中长期维持相对宽松可期，使得利率与企业净资产收益率相匹配。同时，养老负担日趋加重带来的财政收支不匹配亦将在未来限制财政政策空间。故货币政策也将越来越成为政府调控经济的主要手段。\n因此，在经济质量提升与流动性长期合理充裕可期之下，我们仍看好国内资本市场中长期的配置逻辑，同时，未来5年，我国人口与社会结构巨变下，至少资本市场新的结构性机会将不断涌现。那么我们该如何把握这种“人口转型”下的投资机遇呢？\n四、房地产系统性风险是否终将暴露？——日本房地产调控的成败之鉴\n在阐述资本市场的具体投资机会之前，我们首先要解决的是，“人口转型”下资本市场最大的潜在风险：“人口红利”的消失使得人口这一对房地产支撑的长期关键因素开始迅速弱化，人口向老龄化与少子化转型下，房地产中长期周期下行或是某种程度的必然。然而，房地产周期下行是否必然带来系统性风险呢？\n从现有国际经验看，似乎不能排除这种可能：《广场协议》后，日元大幅升值，日本房地产开始出现泡沫，随后日本1990年代老龄化少子化加深及经济低速增长后，房地产泡沫破裂，而房价的暴跌又不断引发债务违约甚至中小银行破产——1997年日本长信银行破产，引发中小银行破产潮，这种信用的坍塌又引发风险偏好急剧收缩，进而引发日本股市日经指数从1990至1998年，暴跌66.64%，资本市场的崩溃又进一步加剧了居民财富的萎缩和实体经济的困难，形成负面循环。这种负面循环所代表的系统性风险是市场对老龄化转型下最为担心的焦点问题。然而，日本这一老龄化下的系统性风险真的不可避免吗？\n实际上，老龄化并不是刺破日本房地产泡沫，进而诱发系统性风险的主因，而是日本当局货币政策不得当的节奏——“先松后紧”，导致了日本房价迅速的高企与坠落，并引发了金融系统的不稳定。1986年日本央行在日元升值的背景下采取了过于宽松的货币政策，如，1986年开始央行把基准利率从5%大幅降低到2.5%，并且在实施宽松的货币政策同时对当时投机炒作的资本缺乏强有力的监管。土地作为撬动大量信贷的抵押物，价格自然被投机资本运作的虚高。这种宽松的政策与监管环境带来了日本房地产价格的泡沫化，1986-89年，日本东京房价指数从103增长至213水平，东京等大城市三年间的房价翻了一倍之多。\n\n随后，房地产泡沫的高企让央行不得不采取快速的加息，1989年-1991年央行持续加息，基准利率从2.5%快速提高到6.25%；此外，1991年日本政府又出台了地价税及强化了特别土地保有税，控制土地价格过快上涨。最终导致了房地产泡沫的破灭，换来房价短期的快速下跌，增加了系统性风险的敞口。1996 年前后日本房价和地价逐渐止跌企稳，但泡沫发展时形成的企业和个人债务未随破裂而消亡，导致当时依靠借款进行非理性投资的企业和个人至今仍背负沉重债务负担。\n\n我们认为，日本央行在日元升值的背景下，正是先以快速宽松的货币政策助长房地产泡沫，随后又快速加息主动刺破了高涨的泡沫，这种房地产调控的“先松后紧”叠加人口老龄化、少子化的深化及经济低迷，造就了房价泡沫短期破裂的风险暴露，同时，银行隐含收益迅速下跌及以不动产为抵押的巨额贷款使日本银行业背负沉重不良债权，1995 年日本不良资产总额40 万亿日元，1997 年12 月问题债权达70万亿日元，严重影响金融系统的稳健与安全。叠加1997年亚洲金融危机，房地产泡沫破裂向金融系统的传导下，日本世界第九大银行——长信银行破产，引发了银行业的破产潮出现。\n通过日本房地产调控的成败之鉴，可以看出，“人口老龄化转型”下房地产的下行是否导致系统性风险的关键在于能否在“人口转型”的前后两个阶段，实现房价走势的“平滑化”过渡。\n然而，由于短视是人性中固有的缺陷，人们往往习惯于将短期趋势无限线性外推，日本之所以在老龄化转型过程中，采取了“前松后紧”的不恰当政策的原因正在于：在80年代后期，日本尚处于人口转型的第III阶段时，此时日本国际竞争力与地位处于历史顶峰，日本决策者很容易过度自信——认为，未来日本经济还能维持高速增长，并消化高涨的房价，全然看不到，后续老龄化高峰到来时的巨大经济下行压力；而老龄化和房地产长期拐点确立之后，此时，亟需宽松政策以对冲房价下行压力，但日本政府却因泡沫期的思维惯性，担心政策放松后，再度出现全国性飙涨，相关宽松、救助措施总是“慢半拍”，进而不断错失阻止风险蔓延的“窗口期”。\n值得庆幸的是，在当前我国人口结构处在第III阶段，房价尚有较强的上行内生动力之下。政策却高瞻远瞩，提前对房地产过热的风险进行了全方位防范：“房住不炒”的定调自2017年，便写入“十九大报告”，过去3年以来，中央及各地方对于房地产炒作亦采取了不断趋严的调控措施，一定程度上遏制了如日本90年代的房地产疯狂泡沫，并预留了充足的政策空间。\n这意味着，即便未来5-10年，我国人口转型进入“老龄化、少子化”的第IV阶段，甚至在未来某个时期，房地产面临较大下行压力的情形下，充足的政策空间与并未失控的房价“泡沫”，亦使得实施“前紧后松”政策，并助推我国房地产“平滑过渡”成为可能。因此，就可以预期的未来而言，无需过于担忧人口老龄化与房地产周期下行下，系统性风险发生的可能性。\n五、“人口转型”下，为何我们对于“鼓励生育类”主题性机会持谨慎态度？\n在我国未来5-10年向少子化、老龄化的“人口转型”压力越来越大之下，自去年年底以来，社会各界要求全面放开乃至鼓励生育的呼声亦越来越强，此次央行工作论文在政策建议中亦如此强调。这种政策上可能的方向性变化是投资者最容易，也是最直接能想到的投资机会。故央行工作论文出炉后，资本市场上亦掀起一波“鼓励生育类”“二胎类”主题炒作热，一些母婴用品相关的概念股甚至在十个交易日内涨幅翻倍。然而，“人口转型”之下，“鼓励生育类”政策是否真的能不断超预期？假使政策出台后，又是否能扭转“少子化”趋势？\n首先，就政策进程而言，我们认为，当前社会上部分专家学者看到生育率下行，就要求“立即、刻不容缓得全面放开生育”，甚至主张将“计划生育”“后队变前队”——采取包括对单身、独生子女家庭变相征税等强制性方式“鼓励生育“的想法或有一定片面性，其忽视了比人口总量更重要的人口结构。\n如前文中“人口红利”的本质是“人口借贷”中所分析的：人口在18岁之前是需要不断消耗社会资源进行投资和抚养的“负担”，只有经过近20年的漫长投资才能转换为产生丰厚社会收益的优质资产。在未来5-10年，我国历史上规模最大的“60后婴儿潮”步入退休期，60-65岁以上退休老人每年持续快速增长的基础上，假使“全面鼓励生育政策”真的如期生效，社会上再多出一大批亟需持续投入的新生“婴儿潮”，则政府财政负担与社会整体抚养负担将在10年甚至更长维度或将面临“婴儿潮与退休潮叠加的双向冲击”，这对我国政府的财政压力，经济高质量发展及居民生活水平的影响都是不可低估的。\n更为重要的是，由于我国区域发展的不均衡性，不同区域、社会阶层的人口对鼓励生育政策的反应是显著不同的：2016年全面放开二胎政策后，出生率最高三个地方分是山东（17.54‰）、西藏（16‰）和新疆（15.88‰），而负增长的6个省份中，三个是直辖市（北京、天津、上海），另外三个全部来自东北。\n这意味着，政策最希望鼓励生育的地区：老龄化最严重区域（东三省）与用工大省（直辖市等）对政策的反应效果不佳，反而越是“老、少、边、穷”区域的人口对于鼓励生育类政策反应最为良好，而这些区域新生人口大幅增加，对于来之不易的“扶贫攻坚”成果的巩固以及社会维稳工作都将增加新的负担。这种与放开生育政策初衷相违背的结构性差异，预计在后续全面放开、鼓励等政策的落地过程之中亦会表现的更加明显。\n事实上，《国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要》对我国生育政策进行的定调正是较为稳妥和慎重的：推动实现适度生育水平，优化生育政策，促进人口长期均衡发展。我们预计，十四五期间，鼓励生育类政策，诸如：放开“三胎”，全面放开生育乃至奖励生育等政策，有可能采取循序渐进符合国情的模式稳妥推进，这意味着政策落地的节奏与当前资本市场热点资金所期望的“立即、刻不容缓全面放开”的“激进模式”是有差异的。\n其次，就政策落地后的效果而言，与部分舆论将当前“少子化”主要责任归咎于计划生育政策，认为政策作出方向转变后，生育率就会较大幅度的回升的观点相比，我们认为，如央行工作论文所言，少子化与老龄化某种意义上是一个国家现代化下的必然产物，既然是必然趋势，故不以政策及制定者的主观意图为转移：\n纵观全球不同文化、体制下的各国鼓励生育政策实施效果，可以发现一旦一国工业化和城市化达到一定高度，则无论何种强度、形式的鼓励生育政策，从长期看，均难以改变生育率下行的大趋势。\n从图表7全球各国鼓励生育政策及政策实施前后生育率对照表（表中包括：东亚文化代表日本、韩国，西方文明典型代表国家法国、德国，东正教文明代表俄罗斯以及伊斯兰文明代表性国家伊朗）中，可以发现，当一国总和生育率(TFR)下降至2.1的世代更替水平以下时，各国大力采取鼓励生育措施：比如：俄罗斯通过设立“母亲基金”为生育第二个和更多孩子的俄罗斯家庭提供数十万卢布的补贴，仅基金成立的前十年，财政补贴总额就已超过1.5万亿卢布；日本生一个孩子则可直接领取40万日元以上的生育给付金；法国鼓励生育政策已持续实施60年有余，每年的相关财政支出达到了830亿欧元。\n\n尽管上述各国的鼓励生育措施力度和决心不可谓不大，有的甚至已经是穷竭政策的所有可能性，但实际效果却“差强人意”：\n第一，所有国家在大力实施鼓励生育后，总和生育率(TFR)水平均未达到为2.1的世代更替水平的政策基准目标（最高的不超过1.85）；\n第二，不同文化的国家对于鼓励生育政策的反应程度显著不同，这其中，东亚文化对于鼓励生育政策反应最不敏感，日本、韩国、新加坡在实施大力鼓励生育政策后生育率依然维持在低水平或依旧下降；\n第三，俄罗斯、法国等部分欧洲国家在实施大力鼓励生育的政策后，整体生育率有一定成效，但实际上却蕴含了两大隐患：\n\n1）少数族裔成为生育率提升的主体，主体民族与少数族裔生育情况进一步失衡：俄罗斯族的总和生育率(TFR)在1.6以下，而其境内穆斯林（如：车臣）则高达3.2以上，这造成了，过去20年以来，俄罗斯族人口减少了近1400万，而境内穆斯林人口数量已经超过了16%，达到2500万；法国则通过欢迎非洲人口，尤其是历史上的法国殖民地国家移民，给黑人发放生育补贴，生得越多，补贴越高，造成整体生育率提升。上述两国中，文化差异巨大的少数族裔占比快速提升，所引发的社会深层次结构性问题加剧，是近年来上述两国社会不稳定因素增多的重要原因之一。\n2）鼓励生育政策的“边际效用”递减现象，即：开始大力度实施生育补贴等政策时，生育率会在1-2年内快速提升，然后当人们开始习惯生育补贴后，生育率又会再次进入下降通道，只能不断依靠更大力度补贴刺激，这将给财政带来越来越大的负担，比如：俄罗斯在2007年“母亲基金”项目实施后，俄罗斯的出生率一度在短期内提高了30%，但从2017年开始，俄罗斯生育率又开始每年持续降低，从2017的1.62下降至2019年为1.5，距离2024年生育率要达到1.75政策目标越来越难。\n\n第四，值得注意的是，即便国人印象中最强调生育的文化和宗教：穆斯林文明的代表伊朗，在工业化和城市化后，生育率亦呈快速下降趋势（伊朗每名妇女生育数从60年代的7人下降至2010年1.8人），且2012年伊朗全面废除计划生育后，伊朗在面临欧美强力制裁，经济十分困难的情况之下，仍采取每年拿出超过1900亿里亚尔的资金鼓励生育，并严禁一切绝育手术等政策大力度鼓励生育，但政策实施十年来，伊朗生育率仅小幅回升至勉强到世代更替水平，再不复当年超高生育率的传统。\n\n上述各国的鼓励生育类政策的落地后之所以效用不佳，无法改变生育率下行的趋势的背后是有着深刻原因的：生育率下行的肇因并非政策，而是现代化，特别是工业化与城市化：\n一方面，工业化社会对科学技术水平的苛刻要求，迫使居民为了让子女适应未来需求，不惜一切代价地提升自己子女的受教育水平。这使得现代社会受教育水平急剧提升的同时，也极大地抬高了现代家庭抚养子女的成本，加剧了下一代子女的晚婚程度，从而削弱其生育潜能。\n另一方面，与农耕文明自给自足的生活相比，城市化在极大的压缩居民居住空间（从图9可知居住密度对于生育率有决定性影响，住公寓楼的家庭超过一半的西欧国家，毫无例外发生生育灾难，而占比只有1/3的国家则明显改观）的同时，又极大的增加了居民生活成本：住房、医疗、交通等各类费用的账单给市民带来无穷无尽的生活压力，迫使市民不得不夜以继日地加大工作强度，这固然为经济发展提供了充足的动力，但如此紧迫的生活使得市民几乎没有时间与精力养育孩子。这种情况下，生育率的快速下降亦是难以避免的。\n\n最后，现代化的医学与科技进步在极大地延长现代社会人口寿命的同时，也带来了人口的老龄化，并给现代化国家造成了前所未有的财政负担：以我国为例，建国前，在漫长的封建农耕时代中，我国人均寿命曾长期维持在40岁以下，这固然是社会发展落后的象征，但却让人口结构保持了足够的青春和活力；建国后，伴随工业化与现代化，人均寿命亦一路上行至如今的75岁，这固然反映了人均生活水平的巨大提升，但某种程度上，也意味着，虚弱、无力但时光漫长的老人们占全社会人口比例越来越高，而具备劳动能力的年轻人占比则不断下降，如前所述，这将为我国的财政带来巨大的挑战。\n既然少子化与老龄化的本质在于社会的现代化，特别是现代化的两个基石——工业化与城市化。而现代化又是一个国家和社会进步的方向，是历史的大势所趋，其无论对国家综合国力的增强，还是对个人生活水平的改善都是不容置疑的，正所谓“停顿和倒退没有出路”。那么，反过来少子化与老龄化趋势亦是难以改变的——政策最多只能延缓斜率而无法扭转方向。在这样的大势面前，试图炒作政策放宽下，生育率快速回升的投资方向终究只能是“昙花一现”。\n作为投资者而言，既然老龄化与少子化某种程度上是历史的必然，那么与其对抗大势，不如拥抱“转折的大时代”所孕育的投资机会。参考日本等国家经验，我们认为，与生育端相比，“人口转型”的另一端：老龄化下社会结构与消费风向变化下所孕育的投资机会，或是真正长期“十倍牛股”的“集结地”。\n六、“人口转换”下，资本市场真正的“十倍股”投资机会在哪里？\n1、最直接的思路：关注“纯老年需求”的增加\n老龄化之下，一个最直接的投资思路是关注老年人生活密切相关的子行业，如：养老护理、慢病医疗、殡葬业等。我们仍以日本老龄社会的老年人消费为鉴，2016年日本65岁以上的老人数量超3000万，约占总人口比例为22%；日本厚生劳动省预计，至2025年日本战后婴儿潮的一代将达到75岁以上超高龄，65岁以上的老年人规模预计3700万，占总人口比例提高至30%。“老有所依”的观念下，医疗护理、养老居住服务等行业已经确定成为2025年后日本经济的增长点。其中，\n\n1）日本殡葬行业市场空间为中国的2倍。根据学者江余裕在《日本殡葬与中日殡葬对比》中披露的中日殡葬业的对比数据，日本进入深度老龄化以来每年死亡人数约为130万人，全国殡葬企业6000多家，行业年营业额约1600亿元。而我国每年死亡人数约900万左右，全国殡葬服务机构总数4300个，殡葬业市场规模仅为700亿元，不足同源殡葬文化下的日本的一半。\n2）养老看护服务行业将随人口老龄化的加剧而不断兴盛，日本政府引导护理行业的社会投资。以日本为例，深度老龄化的医疗护理加重政府财政负担，2004年后日本制定了《老人福利法》、《老人保健法》及《护理保险法》等重要的政策，鼓励社会资本参与护理行业，养老护理行业快速发展。根据前瞻研究院数据，2018年我国养老产业市场规模增长至5.6万亿元，同比增速17.9%；到2024年预计将突破10万亿元，年均增速约20%。我们预计，在我国迈向深度老龄化社会的进程中，围绕医疗养老、个人护理等“纯老年人”消费需求增速或明显提升。\n\n值得注意的是，尽管上述与老人生活密切相关的“纯老年需求”增加是确定的趋势，但从资本市场看，相关细分在过去20年，却从未产生“十倍股”。部分原因可能是由于“人生财富曲线”效应，老人的消费和收入在社会各年龄中都是最弱的，因此，从投资角度看亦不是最优选择。那么“人口转型”下真正的“十倍牛股”投资机遇又在哪里呢？\n2、“人口转型”下，真正的“十倍牛股”“集结地”：老龄化下中青年人消费心态的变化\n我们一直强调，消费心态的变化在消费趋势及投资机会的把握中应该赋予更高的权重，而人口结构的老龄化对社会消费的内在影响在于：全社会对生命周期的预期改变，这其中，中青年人作为边际消费倾向最高的人群，其消费心态与消费习惯的变化往往主导着某一历史阶段消费产业变迁的方向。\n\n以1995年日本股市泡沫破裂之后的消费板块的“十倍股”的细分赛道为例，日本在90年代中后期开始进入“消费欲望低迷”的社会阶段，而在日本这一低迷的经济增长与人口切换期，出现了以优衣库为代表的高性价比服饰、ARATA为代表的保健品和美容药妆产品等消费领域的“十倍股”。\n我们认为，低速增长时代出现的十倍股是有明显特征的：在经济增速换挡时期，老龄化+少子化的趋势不断加深，所有公司都能成长的时代落幕后，顺应消费趋势的“新兴的细分赛道”的公司开始出现强劲成长之机。社会居民理性消费的趋势开始抬头，1995-2020年 “穿越牛熊”的消费常胜股票集中在高性价比服装零售、休闲用品、汽车零配件、化妆品、功能保健性食品饮料等细分赛道。\n以区间涨幅排名第一的迅销集团（Fast Retailing）为例，迅销集团是一家主要从事服装业务的日本控股公司，旗下优衣库部门在日本国内市场和海外市场以UNIQLO的品牌名称销售休闲服装。由于新增人口数量逐年下降，日本市场饱和，年轻世代对产品的质量和性价比提出了更高的要求，优衣库的简约风格和优质面料研发迎合了日本年轻人“低欲望”下的理性消费观。\n又如，药妆及保健品零售供应商龙头ARATA为例，其为日本一线企业提供快消品上下游供应链服务，上游对接超1200+供应商（资生堂、小林制药等）获得商品，海量商品及服务触达下游3500+零售商（松本清、永旺等）。ARATA是日本所有头部药妆店的核心供应商，其内在逻辑即是顺应了日本老龄化下年轻人对化妆品、保健类日常用品的需求。\n从上述对日本“十倍股”复盘可知，“人口转型”下，真正的长期牛股投资机遇或在于：老龄化加速下，全社会消费心态的变化——中青年人对预期寿命的提高及提前防老的焦虑。\n1）因为担心年老后生活质量下降，故中青年人购买保险意识明显增强：根据日本生命保险协会数据，2018年日本保险密度为7.7%，超过世界平均的5.4%，保费收入市占率位居全球第三。日本在经济低速增长及老龄化社会形成的1990-2000年，日本保险行业发展也逐渐走向成熟。我国保险行业伴随产品的完善及服务的升级，或也在渐进的老龄化时代加速发展。麦肯锡公司发布的《中国寿险市场下一个五年的增长引擎：产品保障升级与创新》指出，与成熟市场5%-10%的寿险渗透率相比，2019年中国市场仅约3%。保险产品的渗透率会受益于老龄化进程加深而逐步提升。\n2）因为害怕变老，所以中青年人千方百计希望延缓衰老、留住青春，故药品保健、医美、药妆及健康饮料等细分行业持续高增长。近20年，日本家庭在医疗保健方面支出占比增长较高。在医疗保健消费结构中，医疗服务、医疗用品和器具、药物、医疗保健品平均占比分别为56.4%、17.3%、17.2%和9.0%。\n例如，日本小林制药近来受到消费者的追捧。小林制药是全能型企业，致力于开发能够满足消费者所有需求的生活必备品、药品、医疗器械、日用品、食品，并推出多款备受好评的药妆。人气商品包括：液体创可贴、乳膏型涂抹药、VC美白祛斑膏、散热贴等。\n事实上，这一消费心态的变化近年来亦开始在我国相关行业中逐步体现，比如：我国医药保健品的消费主力已不再是60岁以上的老年人，而是中青年人的巨大增量市场。近些年，90后的“养生主义”悄然兴起，根据阿里健康《2017年度健康消费报告》数据，18—29岁的年轻人在健康消费人群中的占比已超过50%。90后、00后比上一辈更注重健康和保养，甚至打破性别、年龄的边界。2018年国内保健品龙头汤臣倍健将目标瞄准了追求“美丽、时尚、健康”的年轻消费群体，大力推行产品“年轻化”，助推其2020年电商线上渠道收入同比增长62.77%。\n\n3）因为忧虑老年后的孤独和缺乏陪伴，故宠物经济蓬勃发展。根据凯络洞察披露的数据，2010年以来宠物市场规模达到980亿元，至2020年的行业规模的年均增长率或维持18%。但国内家庭宠物拥有率仅有约4%-5%，远不足日本家庭宠物拥有率的38%。老龄化趋势增强宠物在全社会家庭中的心理陪护性需求的主动消费意愿，相关宠物食品及宠物医疗细分领域的景气度或进一步提升。\n\n3、“人口转型”下，“新世代年轻人”将是消费趋势的“领军者”\n根据我们对日本世代消费的研究表明， “年轻世代”是引领日本“经济低迷期”消费趋势的主力。如，1990年代日本经济低迷时代的团块次代（战后婴儿潮的子女）在童年期，由于经济高增长所激发的高期望，与工作后经济下行、阶层固化等构成的残酷现实，形成心理上的剧烈反差。这种心理反差进而塑造了其更加注重简约化、高性价比的“低欲望”消费习惯。日本消费社会在2000年左右，以优衣库、大创及无印良品等为代表的新一代消费品龙头企业的崛起，正是顺应了这一消费习惯变化的产物。\n\n对于中国目前而言，中日两国人口结构的相似及分化加大的社会背景，意味着老龄化对全社会消费预期的变化或是相似的。传承“世代财富”的95后—00后是最具消费潜力的人群，其所领军的“新消费”亦或是这其中最为明显的消费细分。我国95后—00后出生于1990年代，通讯信息技术高速发展的时代，全球化、信息化带来的多元文化的冲击深刻影响了其价值观，使其更加依赖线上便捷式的多元消费。这种变化驱动了抖音、快手及B站等线上视频社交零售、互动平台的快速发展；在消费文化观念上，中国宏观经济高速增长的成长背景，驱使新世代人群有更强的民族自信、文化自信。其强大的文化自信也带动了“新潮国货”的崛起；年轻世代不断壮大的单身群体也催生了日渐火爆的“单身经济”和“宅经济”。\n以此维度来看，无论从日本消费行十倍股的复盘，还是世代消费变迁的启示，都可以看到，在老龄化社会逐步加速背景下，股市的“长跑冠军”仍是锁定边际消费倾向高的群体的，顺应且精准锁定“新世代”年轻人消费趋势变化的企业。\n风险提示：老龄化下经济失速风险，地缘局势恶化超预期，文中对人口变化规模测算偏差风险等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":771,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345086501,"gmtCreate":1618265491803,"gmtModify":1704708229561,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345086501","repostId":"1140947470","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140947470","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618241247,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140947470?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 23:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Investment bank says Tesla will conquer trillion-dollar market, significantly raises target price","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140947470","media":"新浪财经","summary":"到2025年，特斯拉的能源生产和储能部门将产生80亿美元的收入。","content":"<p>Well-known Canadian investment bank Canaccord Genuity said that with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Companies have increased their focus on energy production and storage businesses, and the company known for its electric vehicles is bound to \"attack and conquer\" another trillion-dollar market.</p><p>Analyst Jed Dorsheimer upgraded Tesla stock to Buy from Hold and gave it one of the highest price targets on Wall Street. He predicts that Tesla's energy production and storage unit will generate $8 billion in revenue by 2025.</p><p>Dorsheime said in a note to customers Monday: \"Tesla is rapidly creating a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Style energy product ecosystem. \" He raised his price target on Tesla to $1,071 from $419, meaning he expects the stock to rise nearly 60%. In the past year, Tesla shares have risen nearly fivefold.</p><p>The analyst said Tesla is using all available resources to meet battery demand, including in-house production at its Fremont plant, with partners<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PC\">Panasonic</a>Production in Nevada, as well as a supply agreement with LG Chem. He said the company will be able to meet demand for its Powerwall home energy storage devices as supply constraints ease. This storage device is typically used in conjunction with a solar installation.</p><p>Dorsheimer's price target values Tesla stock and net debt at 63 times his 2024 earnings forecast for the company. That's three times the average valuation of a group of competitors, he said.</p><p>\"While giving a high valuation, we also believe that Tesla has a several-year lead and is now aggressively moving into energy storage, so we think the valuation we are giving is reasonable,\" the analyst wrote.</p><p>Dorsheimer isn't the most bullish Tesla analyst yet. Ark Invest Management said last month that the company's Cathie Wood expects Tesla shares to reach $3,000 by 2025.</p>","source":"XLCJ","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investment bank says Tesla will conquer trillion-dollar market, significantly raises target price</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestment bank says Tesla will conquer trillion-dollar market, significantly raises target price\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-12 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Well-known Canadian investment bank Canaccord Genuity said that with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Companies have increased their focus on energy production and storage businesses, and the company known for its electric vehicles is bound to \"attack and conquer\" another trillion-dollar market.</p><p>Analyst Jed Dorsheimer upgraded Tesla stock to Buy from Hold and gave it one of the highest price targets on Wall Street. He predicts that Tesla's energy production and storage unit will generate $8 billion in revenue by 2025.</p><p>Dorsheime said in a note to customers Monday: \"Tesla is rapidly creating a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Style energy product ecosystem. \" He raised his price target on Tesla to $1,071 from $419, meaning he expects the stock to rise nearly 60%. In the past year, Tesla shares have risen nearly fivefold.</p><p>The analyst said Tesla is using all available resources to meet battery demand, including in-house production at its Fremont plant, with partners<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PC\">Panasonic</a>Production in Nevada, as well as a supply agreement with LG Chem. He said the company will be able to meet demand for its Powerwall home energy storage devices as supply constraints ease. This storage device is typically used in conjunction with a solar installation.</p><p>Dorsheimer's price target values Tesla stock and net debt at 63 times his 2024 earnings forecast for the company. That's three times the average valuation of a group of competitors, he said.</p><p>\"While giving a high valuation, we also believe that Tesla has a several-year lead and is now aggressively moving into energy storage, so we think the valuation we are giving is reasonable,\" the analyst wrote.</p><p>Dorsheimer isn't the most bullish Tesla analyst yet. Ark Invest Management said last month that the company's Cathie Wood expects Tesla shares to reach $3,000 by 2025.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-04-12/doc-ikmxzfmk6437611.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ba18e4c173130d8ec828f5035d30189","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-04-12/doc-ikmxzfmk6437611.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140947470","content_text":"加拿大知名投行Canaccord Genuity表示，随着特斯拉公司加强对能源生产和储能业务的关注，这家以电动汽车闻名的公司必将“攻击并征服”另一个规模达万亿美元的市场。分析师Jed Dorsheimer将特斯拉股票评级从持有上调至买入，并给予其华尔街最高目标价之一。他预测，到2025年，特斯拉的能源生产和储能部门将产生80亿美元的收入。Dorsheime在周一给客户的一份报告中说：“特斯拉正在迅速创建一个苹果式的能源产品生态系统。”他将其对特斯拉的目标价从419美元上调至1071美元，意味着他预计该股将上涨接近60%。在过去一年中，特斯拉股价已上涨近五倍。这位分析师表示，特斯拉正在利用所有可用资源来满足电池需求，包括其弗里蒙特工厂的内部生产， 与合作伙伴松下在内华达州生产，以及与LG化学签订供应协议。他说，随着供应紧张状况缓解，该公司将能够满足对其Powerwall家用储能设备的需求。该存储设备通常与太阳能装置配合使用。Dorsheimer的价格目标对特斯拉股票和净债务的估值为他对2024年该公司盈利预测的63倍。他说，这是一组竞争对手的平均估值的三倍。这位分析师写道：“虽然给出了高估值，但我们也相信特斯拉拥有数年的领先优势，并且现在正积极进军储能领域，因此我们认为我们给出的估值是合理的。”Dorsheimer还不是最看好的特斯拉的分析师。Ark Invest Management上个月表示，该公司的Cathie Wood预计特斯拉股价到2025年将达到3，000美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1082,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346738619,"gmtCreate":1618110941331,"gmtModify":1704706698473,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/346738619","repostId":"2126006034","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2126006034","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"美股研究社，一个专注研究美股的平台，专业的美股投资人都在这。想了解美国股市行情、美股开户、美股资讯、美股公司；想获得一手美股重磅信息；想加入美股交流社群，敬请关注我们吧。","home_visible":0,"media_name":"美股研究社","id":"1074069735","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6"},"pubTimestamp":1618049504,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2126006034?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-10 18:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Among the three stocks that \"Sister Wood\" likes, which one is most worthy of investors' \"Call\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2126006034","media":"美股研究社","summary":"下面是三支遭受重创的Cathie Wood股票，它们是目前特别值得买入的股票。","content":"<p>Even the best investors are going through tough times. Such is the case with Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of Ark Investments. Wood's five largest exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are trading well below their highs earlier this year.</p><p>However, the stock market pullback presents a huge opportunity for other investors to buy shares of the best companies owned by the Ark ETF. Below are three beaten-down Cathie Wood stocks that are particularly good buys right now.</p><p><b>Sea Limite (SE.US)</b></p><p>Sea Limited at Wood's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKF\">ARK Fintech Innovation ETF</a>Ranked fifth in. It is the 10th largest position in ARK Next Generation Internet ETF. The company's shares have fallen more than 12% from the highs set in February.</p><p>Of course, the company announced a steep fourth-quarter loss in early March. However, the stock's decline has more to do with investors pulling out of growth stocks than it has to do with Sea's underlying business. Actually, the company's business is booming.</p><p>Sea's digital entertainment division is cashing in on the success of Free Fire, the highest-grossing mobile game in Latin America and Southeast Asia for six consecutive quarters. The business is essentially subsidizing the company's loss-making division that focuses on digital finance and e-commerce.</p><p>However, I think Sea's long-term outlook is very favorable for all three ventures. Free Fire remains the global mobile gaming giant. Sea's Shopee e-commerce platform has a leading position in markets such as Southeast Asia, Indonesia, and continues to deliver strong revenue growth. The company's SeaMoney mobile wallet is also accelerating.</p><p>I hope Sea's bottom line improves, and I hope its share price rebounds well.</p><p><b>Square (SQ.US)</b></p><p>Wood has no favorite stock than Square (NYSE: SQ). The stock is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKF\">ARK Fintech Innovation ETF</a>The largest stock holding and the second largest position in the ARK Innovation ETF and ARK Next Generation Internet ETF. But Square's stock is down 11% from its February high.</p><p>As in the case of Sea Limited, Square's pullback is largely the result of market rotation. While the company's seller ecosystem was negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, there were signs of improvement in the fourth quarter. Increased vaccine supply bodes well for a stronger performance for the remainder of 2021.</p><p>Meanwhile, Square's cash app digital wallet remains a huge growth story for the company. In the fourth quarter of this year, cash app gross profit surged 162% year-over-year. By driving the use of related products and services, such as cash and debit cards, Square should be able to achieve greater growth.</p><p>In March, the company achieved a major milestone as Square's financial services division began banking. Under the protection of a federally chartered bank, Square will be able to offer more financial services to its business customers. The fintech giant could expand its banking services over time.</p><p>In many ways, Square's efforts to disrupt the financial services industry are just getting started. Its stock price still has plenty of upside.</p><p><b>Teladoc Health (TDOC.US)</b></p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>Among the largest holdings, Teladoc Health's holdings are second only to Square. The virtual care industry leader is the fourth largest holding in the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF and ranks first in the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF. As much as Wood likes Teladoc's stock, its stock has fallen nearly 40% from its February high.</p><p>Institutional investors shifting money away from growth stocks is one reason for Teladoc's underperformance. However, the company also expects revenue growth to slow in the fourth quarter of 2021. Furthermore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Announced plans to enter the telehealth market this summer.</p><p>For all of this, my answer is just looking at the long-term outlook for Teladoc. Virtual health is still in its early stages. McKinsey Consulting predicts that after the epidemic is over, the U.S. virtual medical market will reach $250 billion per year. Teladoc's opportunities aren't limited to the U.S., either.</p><p>I think there is no doubt that this is a big enough market to support multiple winners. Teladoc's lead, market presence (its customers now account for more than 40% of the Fortune 500 companies), and range of products and services give the company a solid competitive advantage.</p><p>It is perfectly understandable that 2020 will see an unprecedented surge in telehealth demand due to the pandemic, and revenue growth will slow somewhat. And in the long run, Teladoc should be able to continue to grow strongly.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Among the three stocks that \"Sister Wood\" likes, which one is most worthy of investors' \"Call\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmong the three stocks that \"Sister Wood\" likes, which one is most worthy of investors' \"Call\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">美股研究社 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-10 18:11</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Even the best investors are going through tough times. Such is the case with Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of Ark Investments. Wood's five largest exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are trading well below their highs earlier this year.</p><p>However, the stock market pullback presents a huge opportunity for other investors to buy shares of the best companies owned by the Ark ETF. Below are three beaten-down Cathie Wood stocks that are particularly good buys right now.</p><p><b>Sea Limite (SE.US)</b></p><p>Sea Limited at Wood's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKF\">ARK Fintech Innovation ETF</a>Ranked fifth in. It is the 10th largest position in ARK Next Generation Internet ETF. The company's shares have fallen more than 12% from the highs set in February.</p><p>Of course, the company announced a steep fourth-quarter loss in early March. However, the stock's decline has more to do with investors pulling out of growth stocks than it has to do with Sea's underlying business. Actually, the company's business is booming.</p><p>Sea's digital entertainment division is cashing in on the success of Free Fire, the highest-grossing mobile game in Latin America and Southeast Asia for six consecutive quarters. The business is essentially subsidizing the company's loss-making division that focuses on digital finance and e-commerce.</p><p>However, I think Sea's long-term outlook is very favorable for all three ventures. Free Fire remains the global mobile gaming giant. Sea's Shopee e-commerce platform has a leading position in markets such as Southeast Asia, Indonesia, and continues to deliver strong revenue growth. The company's SeaMoney mobile wallet is also accelerating.</p><p>I hope Sea's bottom line improves, and I hope its share price rebounds well.</p><p><b>Square (SQ.US)</b></p><p>Wood has no favorite stock than Square (NYSE: SQ). The stock is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKF\">ARK Fintech Innovation ETF</a>The largest stock holding and the second largest position in the ARK Innovation ETF and ARK Next Generation Internet ETF. But Square's stock is down 11% from its February high.</p><p>As in the case of Sea Limited, Square's pullback is largely the result of market rotation. While the company's seller ecosystem was negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, there were signs of improvement in the fourth quarter. Increased vaccine supply bodes well for a stronger performance for the remainder of 2021.</p><p>Meanwhile, Square's cash app digital wallet remains a huge growth story for the company. In the fourth quarter of this year, cash app gross profit surged 162% year-over-year. By driving the use of related products and services, such as cash and debit cards, Square should be able to achieve greater growth.</p><p>In March, the company achieved a major milestone as Square's financial services division began banking. Under the protection of a federally chartered bank, Square will be able to offer more financial services to its business customers. The fintech giant could expand its banking services over time.</p><p>In many ways, Square's efforts to disrupt the financial services industry are just getting started. Its stock price still has plenty of upside.</p><p><b>Teladoc Health (TDOC.US)</b></p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>Among the largest holdings, Teladoc Health's holdings are second only to Square. The virtual care industry leader is the fourth largest holding in the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF and ranks first in the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF. As much as Wood likes Teladoc's stock, its stock has fallen nearly 40% from its February high.</p><p>Institutional investors shifting money away from growth stocks is one reason for Teladoc's underperformance. However, the company also expects revenue growth to slow in the fourth quarter of 2021. Furthermore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Announced plans to enter the telehealth market this summer.</p><p>For all of this, my answer is just looking at the long-term outlook for Teladoc. Virtual health is still in its early stages. McKinsey Consulting predicts that after the epidemic is over, the U.S. virtual medical market will reach $250 billion per year. Teladoc's opportunities aren't limited to the U.S., either.</p><p>I think there is no doubt that this is a big enough market to support multiple winners. Teladoc's lead, market presence (its customers now account for more than 40% of the Fortune 500 companies), and range of products and services give the company a solid competitive advantage.</p><p>It is perfectly understandable that 2020 will see an unprecedented surge in telehealth demand due to the pandemic, and revenue growth will slow somewhat. And in the long run, Teladoc should be able to continue to grow strongly.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"http://gimg2.baidu.com/image_search/src=http%3A%2F%2Finews.gtimg.com%2Fnewsapp_bt%2F0%2F13178222039%2F641&refer=http%3A%2F%2Finews.gtimg.com&app=2002&size=f9999,10000&q=a80&n=0&g=0n&fmt=jpeg?sec=1619929481&t=d215d79061ca1426fcf3fc9ef6561e9f","relate_stocks":{"TDOC":"Teladoc Health Inc.","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","SE":"Sea Ltd"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2126006034","content_text":"即使是最好的投资者也会经历艰难时期。方舟投资公司创始人兼首席执行官Cathie  Wood就是这样。Wood管理的五大交易所交易基金(ETFs)的股价远低于今年早些时候的高点。然而，股市回调为其他投资者提供了巨大的机会，让他们可以买进方舟ETF所拥有的最好公司的股票。下面是三支遭受重创的Cathie  Wood股票，它们是目前特别值得买入的股票。Sea Limite（SE.US）Sea Limited 在Wood的ARK Fintech Innovation ETF中排名第五。它是ARK Next  Generation Internet ETF的第10大持仓。该公司股价已较2月份创下的高点下跌逾12%。当然，该公司在3月初宣布了第四季度的大幅亏损。然而，该股的下跌更多地与投资者从成长型股票中撤出有关，而不是与Sea的基础业务有关。实际上，公司的业务正在蓬勃发展。Sea的数字娱乐部门正从《Free Fire》的成功中赚得盆满钵满，《Free  Fire》是拉丁美洲和东南亚连续6个季度营收最高的手机游戏。这项业务实质上是在补贴该公司专注于数字金融和电子商务的亏损部门。然而，我认为Sea的长期前景对这三项企业都非常有利。Free  Fire仍然是全球手机游戏巨头。Sea的Shopee电子商务平台在东南亚、印度尼西亚等市场处于领先地位，并持续实现强劲的收入增长。该公司的SeaMoney移动钱包也在加速发展。我希望Sea的底线会有所改善，并且我希望它的股价能很好地反弹。Square（SQ.US）Wood最喜欢的股票莫过于Square(NYSE:SQ)。该股是ARK Fintech Innovation ETF持有的最大股票，也是ARK  Innovation ETF和ARK Next Generation Internet  ETF的第二大头寸。但Square的股价较2月份的高点下跌了11%。与Sea  Limited的情况一样，Square的回调主要是市场轮转的结果。尽管该公司的卖家生态系统受到了COVID-19大流行的负面影响，但第四季度出现了改善的迹象。疫苗供应的增加预示着2021年剩余时间的表现将更加强劲。与此同时，Square的现金应用数字钱包仍然是该公司的一个巨大增长故事。今年第四季度，现金应用毛利润同比飙升162%。通过推动相关产品和服务(如现金卡和借记卡)的使用，Square应该能够实现更大的增长。今年3月，随着Square金融服务部门开始银行业务，该公司实现了一个重要的里程碑。在联邦特许银行的保护下，Square将能够为其商业客户提供更多的金融服务。随着时间的推移，这家金融科技巨头可能会扩大其银行服务。从很多方面来看，Square在颠覆金融服务业方面的努力才刚刚起步。它的股价还有很大的上涨空间。Teladoc Health（TDOC.US）在ARK Innovation ETF持股最多的公司中，Teladoc  Health的持股量仅次于Square。这家虚拟护理行业的领军企业是ARK Next Generation Internet  ETF的第四大持仓，在ARK Genomic Revolution  ETF位列第一。尽管Wood很喜欢Teladoc的股票，但其股价已从2月份的高点下跌了近40%。机构投资者将资金从成长型股票上转移，是Teladoc表现不佳的一个原因。然而，该公司也预计2021年第四季度的收入增长将放缓。此外，亚马逊宣布计划于今年夏天进军远程医疗市场。对于这一切，我的回答只是着眼于Teladoc的长期前景。虚拟医疗仍处于早期阶段。McKinsey咨询公司预测，疫情结束后，美国虚拟医疗市场每年将达到2500亿美元。Teladoc的机会也不仅仅局限于美国。我认为，毫无疑问，这是一个足够大的市场，足以支持多个赢家。Teladoc的领先优势、市场占有率(目前其客户占《财富》500强企业的40%以上)，以及产品和服务的范围，使公司具有坚实的竞争优势。2020年，由于大流行，远程医疗需求前所未有地激增，收入增长将有所放缓，这是完全可以理解的。而从长远来看，Teladoc应该能够持续强劲增长。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARKK":0.9,"TDOC":0.9,"SE":0.9,"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340726931,"gmtCreate":1617496853723,"gmtModify":1704699963835,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O\">$Realty Income Corp(O)$</a>????","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O\">$Realty Income Corp(O)$</a>????","text":"$Realty Income Corp(O)$????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb6747c7bf57755a3aeca67faa3e7ce","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/340980125","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357902197,"gmtCreate":1617227020319,"gmtModify":1704697443637,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/357902197","repostId":"1185840581","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355801788,"gmtCreate":1617056131044,"gmtModify":1704801309572,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/355801788","repostId":"1107509761","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322045965,"gmtCreate":1615759570357,"gmtModify":1704786086065,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VOO\">$Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF(VOO)$</a>???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VOO\">$Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF(VOO)$</a>???","text":"$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7556776091111a542dd7923c8c10d181","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322045965","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323853984,"gmtCreate":1615333489148,"gmtModify":1704781216065,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559465027955708","idStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??????","listText":"??????","text":"??????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323853984","repostId":"2118642236","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2118642236","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615317060,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2118642236?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-10 03:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tesla swept away decline and soared 20%, leading the electric vehicle sector higher across the board","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2118642236","media":"新浪财经","summary":"在投资者的追捧下，特斯拉股价周二止住五连跌，并创一年多来最大涨幅。一连串的积极消息——包括评级上调、比特币上涨、高估值科技股人气普遍改善——将投资者吸引回特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商。马斯克麾下的特斯拉周二一度上涨20%，收复前五天的大部分失地。截至发过，特斯拉报666.82美元。这位分析师在研报中称，New Street的预测暗示特斯拉2023年可取得12美元的每股收益。","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f046df2f1dab410219e9269fbc6b146d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Under the pursuit of investors,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Shares halted a five-game losing streak on Tuesday and posted their biggest gain in more than a year.</p><p>A flurry of positive news-including ratings upgrades, Bitcoin gains, and broadly improved sentiment among high-valued tech stocks-has drawn investors back to Tesla and other electric vehicle makers.</p><p>Musk's Tesla rose 20% at one point on Tuesday, regaining most of the ground lost in the previous five days. In the first five days, the company's market value evaporated by nearly $150 billion. As of publication, Tesla quoted $666.82.</p><p>The stock's previous plunge was seen as a buying opportunity. New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu upgraded Tesla to buy from hold, saying the company has two years of earnings momentum and its demand outlook is stronger than supply.</p><p>The analyst said in a research report that New Street's forecast implies that Tesla can achieve earnings per share of $12 in 2023. According to the data, analysts' average estimate is earnings of $7.73 per share.</p><p>\"Based on earnings revisions like this, we expect the stock to remain at the high end of the 50-100x range, similar to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Levels in nearly a decade, 100 times below today's, \"Ferragu said.</p><p>Other EV makers and suppliers also rose Tuesday, including Nio Motor,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>, Workhorse Group Inc., Nikola Corp.,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>And Canoo Inc. Shares of several Chinese companies were also boosted by reports that XPeng Motor Co. narrowed its fourth-quarter loss and Nio Motor Co. and XPeng Motor Co. were considering secondary listings in Hong Kong.</p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla swept away decline and soared 20%, leading the electric vehicle sector higher across the board</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla swept away decline and soared 20%, leading the electric vehicle sector higher across the board\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-10 03:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f046df2f1dab410219e9269fbc6b146d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Under the pursuit of investors,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Shares halted a five-game losing streak on Tuesday and posted their biggest gain in more than a year.</p><p>A flurry of positive news-including ratings upgrades, Bitcoin gains, and broadly improved sentiment among high-valued tech stocks-has drawn investors back to Tesla and other electric vehicle makers.</p><p>Musk's Tesla rose 20% at one point on Tuesday, regaining most of the ground lost in the previous five days. In the first five days, the company's market value evaporated by nearly $150 billion. As of publication, Tesla quoted $666.82.</p><p>The stock's previous plunge was seen as a buying opportunity. New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu upgraded Tesla to buy from hold, saying the company has two years of earnings momentum and its demand outlook is stronger than supply.</p><p>The analyst said in a research report that New Street's forecast implies that Tesla can achieve earnings per share of $12 in 2023. According to the data, analysts' average estimate is earnings of $7.73 per share.</p><p>\"Based on earnings revisions like this, we expect the stock to remain at the high end of the 50-100x range, similar to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Levels in nearly a decade, 100 times below today's, \"Ferragu said.</p><p>Other EV makers and suppliers also rose Tuesday, including Nio Motor,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>, Workhorse Group Inc., Nikola Corp.,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>And Canoo Inc. Shares of several Chinese companies were also boosted by reports that XPeng Motor Co. narrowed its fourth-quarter loss and Nio Motor Co. and XPeng Motor Co. were considering secondary listings in Hong Kong.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202103100311507b58b961&s=b\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/577e499e898d722a6d935282f36956a3","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202103100311507b58b961&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2118642236","content_text":"在投资者的追捧下，特斯拉股价周二止住五连跌，并创一年多来最大涨幅。\n一连串的积极消息——包括评级上调、比特币上涨、高估值科技股人气普遍改善——将投资者吸引回特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商。\n马斯克麾下的特斯拉周二一度上涨20%，收复前五天的大部分失地。在前五天，该公司市值最高蒸发近1500亿美元。截至发过，特斯拉报666.82美元。\n该股此前的暴跌被视为买入机会。New Street Research分析师Pierre Ferragu将特斯拉评级从持有上调至买入，称该公司有两年的盈利势头，其需求前景强于供应。\n这位分析师在研报中称，New Street的预测暗示特斯拉2023年可取得12美元的每股收益。数据显示，分析师的平均预期为每股收益7.73美元。\n“基于这样的收益修正，我们预计该股将保持在50-100倍区间的高端，类似于亚马逊近十年来的水平，低于今天的100倍，”Ferragu说。\n其他电动汽车制造商和供应商周二也上涨，包括蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车、Workhorse Group Inc．、Nikola Corp．、理想汽车和Canoo Inc．。小鹏汽车第四季度亏损收窄、蔚来汽车和小鹏汽车考虑香港二次上市的报道也提振了几家中国公司的股价。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9093841278,"gmtCreate":1643595791743,"gmtModify":1676533834462,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559465027955708","authorIdStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good game👍","listText":"good game👍","text":"good game👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093841278","repostId":"9004448317","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9004448317,"gmtCreate":1642676525258,"gmtModify":1676533734534,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667667103859","authorIdStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"Join Tiger Ski Championship, Win a Bonus of Up to USD 2022","htmlText":"2022 is the Year of Tiger in Chinese lunar calendar, it’s also a special year for Tiger Brokers. To celebrate the special year, we want to invite you to join the ski game presented by Tiger Brokers specially, and it’s very easy and interesting game for users to play. Join the game and win a bonus of up to USD 2022 and limited-edition Tiger Toys Spring Festival and Winter Olympic are both on the way, open your Tiger Trade App and play the ski game with us, win golden medals as many as you can! You could have chance to try Lucky Draw when you win medals.The more medal you win, the bigger bonus you may win! Big Rewards are as follow: <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/happy-new-year/#/\" target=\"_blank\">Click to Join the Game</a>","listText":"2022 is the Year of Tiger in Chinese lunar calendar, it’s also a special year for Tiger Brokers. To celebrate the special year, we want to invite you to join the ski game presented by Tiger Brokers specially, and it’s very easy and interesting game for users to play. Join the game and win a bonus of up to USD 2022 and limited-edition Tiger Toys Spring Festival and Winter Olympic are both on the way, open your Tiger Trade App and play the ski game with us, win golden medals as many as you can! You could have chance to try Lucky Draw when you win medals.The more medal you win, the bigger bonus you may win! Big Rewards are as follow: <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/happy-new-year/#/\" target=\"_blank\">Click to Join the Game</a>","text":"2022 is the Year of Tiger in Chinese lunar calendar, it’s also a special year for Tiger Brokers. To celebrate the special year, we want to invite you to join the ski game presented by Tiger Brokers specially, and it’s very easy and interesting game for users to play. Join the game and win a bonus of up to USD 2022 and limited-edition Tiger Toys Spring Festival and Winter Olympic are both on the way, open your Tiger Trade App and play the ski game with us, win golden medals as many as you can! You could have chance to try Lucky Draw when you win medals.The more medal you win, the bigger bonus you may win! Big Rewards are as follow: Click to Join the Game","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b44fa056439fb4010fa55e163d27c3","width":"750","height":"1726"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004448317","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4027,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162804861,"gmtCreate":1624053749453,"gmtModify":1703827579221,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559465027955708","authorIdStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162804861","repostId":"2144572198","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144572198","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1623993218,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144572198?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 13:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Over 2 trillion U.S. stock options decisive battle tonight's \"Four Witches Day\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144572198","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美股今年第二个“四巫日”今晚到来，届时将有超2万亿美元美股期权到期，加上美联储暗示流动性或收紧，此次“四巫日”或许是美股的一个转折点。\n四巫日(Quadruplewitchingday)是指美国市场于","content":"<p>The second \"Four Witches Day\" of U.S. stocks this year is coming tonight, when more than $2 trillion in U.S. stock options will expire. In addition, the Federal Reserve has hinted that liquidity may tighten. This \"Four Witches Day\" may be a turning point for U.S. stocks..</p><p>Quadruplewitchingday refers to the maturity and settlement date of derivative financial products in the U.S. market on the third Friday of the quarter (March, June, September, December). Stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire for delivery on the same day. Simultaneous delivery of these four asset classes will bring violent market volatility, with long and short positions playing against each other.</p><p><b>Options expiring this Friday include: $240 billion worth of<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVV\">S&P 500 Index ETF</a>Options, $200 billion mini S&P 500 futures and $1.8 trillion S&P 500 options, are worth more than $2 trillion in total.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e084b716c88bd8163b59b6f21fa71734\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As U.S. stocks have been hitting new highs recently, most open interest prices in June are expected to be lower than current spot prices. As shown in the figure below, options are most densely distributed with strike prices around 3900 and 4150. This means there may be some support around these points after this Friday until they are refilled with a new gamma.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac0e8bce636a6f73c6b57a18d39a180a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The trading volume of the four witches is very huge in the calendar,<b>But what is more noteworthy this time is that the volatility of U.S. stocks was very low before, and hints of the Fed's liquidity turning point have already come out.</b></p><p>In the past 13 trading days, the volatility of the S&P 500 index was only 5.1%, which is the lowest volatility since 2019. However, compared with the dead market, the volatility of individual stocks is extremely high, especially retail group stocks, such as GME and AMC, etc.</p><p>Charlie McElligott of Nomura Securities pointed out,<b>It is very dangerous to coexist with extremely low market volatility and a large number of bullish gamma options expiring.</b>Because once the positions are collectively closed, the actual volatility may rebound instantly. At the same time, VIX futures are rising relative to the S&P 500 Beta, suggesting that if the market sells off, short gamma positions will pick up and the market will become more volatile.</p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on Thursday did not indicate an immediate tightening of liquidity, but also admitted that high inflation will not disappear in the short term, which is equivalent to walking a tightrope between doves and hawks. But on Friday, real action began to tighten liquidity.</p><p>Friday,<b>68 counterparties put $756 billion in funds to the Federal Reserve through overnight reverse repurchase facilities, setting a record high of $584 billion.</b>And the day before. The use of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase rate is only $520.9 billion. This means that the tool's usage increased by $235.1 billion in just one day, a whopping 45% increase.</p><p>The effect of the Fed's reverse repurchase is just the opposite of that of China. Simply put, the role of my country's central bank's reverse repurchase is to release liquidity, while the Fed's reverse repurchase is to recover liquidity. Since last Wednesday, it exceeded the $500 billion mark for the first time in history, the single-day usage of the Fed's reverse repurchase facility has exceeded $500 billion for seven consecutive trading days.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Over 2 trillion U.S. stock options decisive battle tonight's \"Four Witches Day\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOver 2 trillion U.S. stock options decisive battle tonight's \"Four Witches Day\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 13:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The second \"Four Witches Day\" of U.S. stocks this year is coming tonight, when more than $2 trillion in U.S. stock options will expire. In addition, the Federal Reserve has hinted that liquidity may tighten. This \"Four Witches Day\" may be a turning point for U.S. stocks..</p><p>Quadruplewitchingday refers to the maturity and settlement date of derivative financial products in the U.S. market on the third Friday of the quarter (March, June, September, December). Stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire for delivery on the same day. Simultaneous delivery of these four asset classes will bring violent market volatility, with long and short positions playing against each other.</p><p><b>Options expiring this Friday include: $240 billion worth of<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVV\">S&P 500 Index ETF</a>Options, $200 billion mini S&P 500 futures and $1.8 trillion S&P 500 options, are worth more than $2 trillion in total.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e084b716c88bd8163b59b6f21fa71734\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As U.S. stocks have been hitting new highs recently, most open interest prices in June are expected to be lower than current spot prices. As shown in the figure below, options are most densely distributed with strike prices around 3900 and 4150. This means there may be some support around these points after this Friday until they are refilled with a new gamma.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac0e8bce636a6f73c6b57a18d39a180a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The trading volume of the four witches is very huge in the calendar,<b>But what is more noteworthy this time is that the volatility of U.S. stocks was very low before, and hints of the Fed's liquidity turning point have already come out.</b></p><p>In the past 13 trading days, the volatility of the S&P 500 index was only 5.1%, which is the lowest volatility since 2019. However, compared with the dead market, the volatility of individual stocks is extremely high, especially retail group stocks, such as GME and AMC, etc.</p><p>Charlie McElligott of Nomura Securities pointed out,<b>It is very dangerous to coexist with extremely low market volatility and a large number of bullish gamma options expiring.</b>Because once the positions are collectively closed, the actual volatility may rebound instantly. At the same time, VIX futures are rising relative to the S&P 500 Beta, suggesting that if the market sells off, short gamma positions will pick up and the market will become more volatile.</p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on Thursday did not indicate an immediate tightening of liquidity, but also admitted that high inflation will not disappear in the short term, which is equivalent to walking a tightrope between doves and hawks. But on Friday, real action began to tighten liquidity.</p><p>Friday,<b>68 counterparties put $756 billion in funds to the Federal Reserve through overnight reverse repurchase facilities, setting a record high of $584 billion.</b>And the day before. The use of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase rate is only $520.9 billion. This means that the tool's usage increased by $235.1 billion in just one day, a whopping 45% increase.</p><p>The effect of the Fed's reverse repurchase is just the opposite of that of China. Simply put, the role of my country's central bank's reverse repurchase is to release liquidity, while the Fed's reverse repurchase is to recover liquidity. Since last Wednesday, it exceeded the $500 billion mark for the first time in history, the single-day usage of the Fed's reverse repurchase facility has exceeded $500 billion for seven consecutive trading days.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be0bdd49975f3ab5453ab8ae8b24f37e","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UVXY":"1.5倍做多短期期货恐慌指数ETF-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SVXY":"做空波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144572198","content_text":"美股今年第二个“四巫日”今晚到来，届时将有超2万亿美元美股期权到期，加上美联储暗示流动性或收紧，此次“四巫日”或许是美股的一个转折点。\n四巫日(Quadruplewitchingday)是指美国市场于季月(三月、六月、九月、十二月)第三个星期五之衍生性金融商品到期结算日，股指期货、股指期权、股票期权以及单一股票期货，都在同一天到期交割。这四种资产类别同时交割会带来剧烈的市场波动，多头空头相互博弈。\n本周五到期的期权包括：价值2400亿美元的标普500指数ETF期权，2000亿美元的迷你标普500指数期货以及1.8万亿美元的标普500指数期权，总计价值超2万亿美元。\n\n由于近期美股一直在创新高，预计大部分6月未平仓合约价格都低于当前的现货价格。如下图所示，行权价在3900和4150附近期权分布最密集。这意味着在本周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的支撑，直到被新的gamma重新填充。\n\n四巫日历来成交量都非常巨大，但此次更值得注意的点是，此前美股波动率非常低，另外美联储流动性转折的暗示已经出来了。\n过去13个交易日，标普500指数波动率仅有5.1%，这是自2019年以来最低的波动率，但是与大盘死气沉沉相比，个股的波动性却极大，特别是散户抱团股，如GME和AMC等。\n野村证券的Charlie McElligott指出，极低的大盘波动率与大量看涨gamma期权到期并存非常危险，因为一旦头寸集体平仓，实际波动率可能会瞬间回升。同时，VIX指数期货相对于标普500指数Beta值不断上升，这表明，如果市场出现抛售，空头gamma仓位会回升，市场将变得更加不稳定。\n另外，周四的美联储议息会议并没有表示立即收紧流动性，但是也承认了通胀高企短期不会消失，相当于在鸽、鹰派之间走钢丝。但是周五却实实在在行动开始收紧流动性。\n周五，68家对手方通过隔夜逆回购工具将7560亿美元资金放到美联储，刷新了5840亿美元的纪录高位。而前一天。美联储的隔夜逆回购率的使用规模仅为5209亿美元。这意味着，在短短一天时间内，该工具的使用量增加了2351亿美元，增幅高达45%。\n美联储逆回购功效和中国刚刚相反，简单来说，我国央行逆回购的作用是为了释放流动性，而美联储逆回购则是为了收回流动性。自上周三用量史上首次突破5000亿美元大关以来，美联储逆回购工具的单日用量已连续七个交易日超过5000亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"VIXmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SVXY":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"QLD":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"VIXY":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UVXY":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4048,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196351528,"gmtCreate":1621029881264,"gmtModify":1704352073045,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559465027955708","authorIdStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VOO\">$Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF(VOO)$</a>????","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VOO\">$Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF(VOO)$</a>????","text":"$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30c5ac401beb271df4f8be2b542614d6","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/196351528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340980125,"gmtCreate":1617330085667,"gmtModify":1704698843303,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559465027955708","authorIdStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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Corp(O)$</a>????","text":"$Realty Income Corp(O)$????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5afd21fae3a575cd0650c42c379027ec","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377456128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345086501,"gmtCreate":1618265491803,"gmtModify":1704708229561,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559465027955708","authorIdStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345086501","repostId":"1140947470","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140947470","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618241247,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140947470?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 23:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Investment bank says Tesla will conquer trillion-dollar market, significantly raises target price","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140947470","media":"新浪财经","summary":"到2025年，特斯拉的能源生产和储能部门将产生80亿美元的收入。","content":"<p>Well-known Canadian investment bank Canaccord Genuity said that with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Companies have increased their focus on energy production and storage businesses, and the company known for its electric vehicles is bound to \"attack and conquer\" another trillion-dollar market.</p><p>Analyst Jed Dorsheimer upgraded Tesla stock to Buy from Hold and gave it one of the highest price targets on Wall Street. He predicts that Tesla's energy production and storage unit will generate $8 billion in revenue by 2025.</p><p>Dorsheime said in a note to customers Monday: \"Tesla is rapidly creating a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Style energy product ecosystem. \" He raised his price target on Tesla to $1,071 from $419, meaning he expects the stock to rise nearly 60%. In the past year, Tesla shares have risen nearly fivefold.</p><p>The analyst said Tesla is using all available resources to meet battery demand, including in-house production at its Fremont plant, with partners<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PC\">Panasonic</a>Production in Nevada, as well as a supply agreement with LG Chem. He said the company will be able to meet demand for its Powerwall home energy storage devices as supply constraints ease. This storage device is typically used in conjunction with a solar installation.</p><p>Dorsheimer's price target values Tesla stock and net debt at 63 times his 2024 earnings forecast for the company. That's three times the average valuation of a group of competitors, he said.</p><p>\"While giving a high valuation, we also believe that Tesla has a several-year lead and is now aggressively moving into energy storage, so we think the valuation we are giving is reasonable,\" the analyst wrote.</p><p>Dorsheimer isn't the most bullish Tesla analyst yet. Ark Invest Management said last month that the company's Cathie Wood expects Tesla shares to reach $3,000 by 2025.</p>","source":"XLCJ","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investment bank says Tesla will conquer trillion-dollar market, significantly raises target price</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestment bank says Tesla will conquer trillion-dollar market, significantly raises target price\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-12 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Well-known Canadian investment bank Canaccord Genuity said that with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Companies have increased their focus on energy production and storage businesses, and the company known for its electric vehicles is bound to \"attack and conquer\" another trillion-dollar market.</p><p>Analyst Jed Dorsheimer upgraded Tesla stock to Buy from Hold and gave it one of the highest price targets on Wall Street. He predicts that Tesla's energy production and storage unit will generate $8 billion in revenue by 2025.</p><p>Dorsheime said in a note to customers Monday: \"Tesla is rapidly creating a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Style energy product ecosystem. \" He raised his price target on Tesla to $1,071 from $419, meaning he expects the stock to rise nearly 60%. In the past year, Tesla shares have risen nearly fivefold.</p><p>The analyst said Tesla is using all available resources to meet battery demand, including in-house production at its Fremont plant, with partners<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PC\">Panasonic</a>Production in Nevada, as well as a supply agreement with LG Chem. He said the company will be able to meet demand for its Powerwall home energy storage devices as supply constraints ease. This storage device is typically used in conjunction with a solar installation.</p><p>Dorsheimer's price target values Tesla stock and net debt at 63 times his 2024 earnings forecast for the company. That's three times the average valuation of a group of competitors, he said.</p><p>\"While giving a high valuation, we also believe that Tesla has a several-year lead and is now aggressively moving into energy storage, so we think the valuation we are giving is reasonable,\" the analyst wrote.</p><p>Dorsheimer isn't the most bullish Tesla analyst yet. Ark Invest Management said last month that the company's Cathie Wood expects Tesla shares to reach $3,000 by 2025.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-04-12/doc-ikmxzfmk6437611.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ba18e4c173130d8ec828f5035d30189","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-04-12/doc-ikmxzfmk6437611.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140947470","content_text":"加拿大知名投行Canaccord Genuity表示，随着特斯拉公司加强对能源生产和储能业务的关注，这家以电动汽车闻名的公司必将“攻击并征服”另一个规模达万亿美元的市场。分析师Jed Dorsheimer将特斯拉股票评级从持有上调至买入，并给予其华尔街最高目标价之一。他预测，到2025年，特斯拉的能源生产和储能部门将产生80亿美元的收入。Dorsheime在周一给客户的一份报告中说：“特斯拉正在迅速创建一个苹果式的能源产品生态系统。”他将其对特斯拉的目标价从419美元上调至1071美元，意味着他预计该股将上涨接近60%。在过去一年中，特斯拉股价已上涨近五倍。这位分析师表示，特斯拉正在利用所有可用资源来满足电池需求，包括其弗里蒙特工厂的内部生产， 与合作伙伴松下在内华达州生产，以及与LG化学签订供应协议。他说，随着供应紧张状况缓解，该公司将能够满足对其Powerwall家用储能设备的需求。该存储设备通常与太阳能装置配合使用。Dorsheimer的价格目标对特斯拉股票和净债务的估值为他对2024年该公司盈利预测的63倍。他说，这是一组竞争对手的平均估值的三倍。这位分析师写道：“虽然给出了高估值，但我们也相信特斯拉拥有数年的领先优势，并且现在正积极进军储能领域，因此我们认为我们给出的估值是合理的。”Dorsheimer还不是最看好的特斯拉的分析师。Ark Invest Management上个月表示，该公司的Cathie Wood预计特斯拉股价到2025年将达到3，000美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1082,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322045965,"gmtCreate":1615759570357,"gmtModify":1704786086065,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559465027955708","authorIdStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VOO\">$Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF(VOO)$</a>???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VOO\">$Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF(VOO)$</a>???","text":"$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7556776091111a542dd7923c8c10d181","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322045965","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100709511,"gmtCreate":1619647798833,"gmtModify":1704727198837,"author":{"id":"3559465027955708","authorId":"3559465027955708","name":"Tonyseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd7cee8035bef38984f1955f9409b81","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559465027955708","authorIdStr":"3559465027955708"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O\">$Realty Income Corp(O)$</a>????","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O\">$Realty Income Corp(O)$</a>????","text":"$Realty Income Corp(O)$????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9045f37a6299dedf9992a1ce4b741abe","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/100709511","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}