Since mid-March, international crude oil prices have experienced a rebound. NYMEX WTI crude oil futures rose from $65.6 per barrel on March 10 to $69.37 per barrel by March 25, an increase of about 5.7%. Similarly, ICE Brent crude oil futures rose from $68.65 per barrel to $72.54 per barrel during the same period.This price rally is driven by supply-side disruptions, including geopolitical crises and U.S. sanctions, which have led to downward revisions in crude oil production forecasts for 2025. OPEC+'s implementation of compensatory production cuts has eased concerns about oversupply. However, factors such as China’s shift to new energy vehicles and reduced oil demand in the U.S. due to tariffs and fiscal tightening make it unlikely that crude oil will break away from its oversupply trend

U.S. Economy Facing Rising Risks of RecessionSince January, recession risks in the U.S. economy have become increasingly salient. Optimistic market sentiment has subsided, and policy shifts under the Trump administration—including tariff hikes, federal budget cuts, and layoffs at Doge Corporation—have significantly dampened economic momentum.Key indicators show evident deterioration:On March 11, the U.S. 10-year treasury yield fell to 4.28%, down from January's optimistic peak of 4.79%. The U.S. Dollar Index also sharply declined from 110.17 (January 13) to 103.39 (March 11).The Atlanta Fed drastically cut its Q1 2025 GDP growth forecast from 3.9% to -2.4%, citing weak consumer spending and net exports.Recent retail sales figures notably missed expectations, consumption growth slowed sharp

Let's talk about what happened in the forex market last week and what to expect this week.Last Week's Market RecapLast week, the US dollar had a short correction but then shot up. It closed the week higher. Meanwhile, non - US currencies kept hitting new lows. On Friday, the latest non - farm data came out way better than expected. This made the market lower its hopes for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2025. And this could keep the US dollar strong in the short run.The US dollar had its fifth straight week of gains. On Friday, it had a big daily jump. December's non - agricultural data showed the US created more jobs than we thought. This made people think the Fed will hold off on cutting rates as fast as they thought before. But, the Fed cares a lot about inflation data. So,

After Shigeru Ishiba was re-elected as Prime Minister of Japan on November 11th, the Japanese economy still faces several major challenges, among which it is particularly important to seek a balance between inflation and economic growth. Recently, the Japanese stock market has fallen into a range-bound trend, and the yen exchange rate no longer depreciates unilaterally. By next year, the direction of Shigeru Ishiba's economic stimulus is to increase residents' income and fight inflation through subsidies, but the effect remains to be seen. The tariff increase imposed by Trump's new administration may have an additional impact on the Japanese economy, and the sustainability of Japan's debt is also problematic. Therefore, the Japanese stock market has not yet ushered in a new upward driver.

Since mid-July, the Japanese stock market has entered a stage of high volatility, during which a series of uncertain factors such as the rate hike of the Bank of Japan, the violent fluctuation of the yen exchange rate and the "Trump deal" ushered in the US election. From the perspective of the Japanese stock market, if the Trump administration brings reflation and the appreciation of the US dollar, then Japan will face greater pressure of capital outflow.Economic slowdown will continueFrom the perspective of stock pricing logic, it is inseparable from corporate profits and risk premiums, both of which are inseparable from the fundamentals of economic growth. Going back to the fundamentals of Japan's economic growth, we can see that GDP growth is slowing down. Generally speaking, it is diff

Since Japan launched its rate hike, the Japanese stock market has entered a high sideways consolidation stage, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by less than 3% in October. Recently, in the 50th House of Representatives election in Japan, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost its ruling position for the first time since 2009, and the Japanese stock market and exchange rate fluctuated greatly in the short term, which brought great uncertainty to Japan's monetary and fiscal policies in the future.There are downside risks to the economyAccording to published data, the Japanese government's second-quarter GDP growth rate was lowered from 0.8% to 0.7%, and the annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate was lowered from 3.1% to 2.9%. Among them, the month-on-month growth rate of private final c

Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ prices soared last week, surpassing the $2700 mark and setting a historical high. Over the past two years, gold has climbed steadily, breaking record after record. Analysts from Bank of America recently pointed out that, driven by multiple factors, they maintain a target price of $3000 per ounce for gold.Gold futures closed above $2700, marking an impressive increase of over 30% this year. However, from a technical standpoint, gold has been overbought for an extended period, suggesting a potential for significant pullbacks.After a brief expected correction, buyers quickly stepped back in. A drop in interest rates, central bank purchases, political uncertainty, and rising sovereign debt are all pushing gold towar

Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ prices reached new heights on Thursday, driven by uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election and escalating tensions in the Middle East, boosting demand for safe-haven assets.Spot gold hit a record $2,696.62 per ounce, while futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $2,704.80 per ounce. The immediate catalyst for this surge was the Middle East unrest, prompting investors to flock to gold.Market Caution Before the ElectionFXTM Senior Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga notes that with less than three weeks until the U.S. election, the market may remain cautious. However, the uncertainty surrounding the election results has heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold.Investors see both pr

Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ has been smashing record highs left and right. As we closed 2023, prices soared well above the $2,000 per ounce mark, and let’s just say, 2024 has kept that momentum going strong. After the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut this September, gold shot past $2,600 an ounce, setting a new historical high. But here’s the kicker—gold stocks haven’t yet delivered the explosive returns investors were betting on.As of October 1, gold prices are up around 30% this year. Meanwhile, the mainstream gold stock ETFs, $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$ and $VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF(GDXJ)$ , have climbed 32% and 33%, respectively. Sounds decent, rig

图片Thanks to expectations of further interest rate cuts from the Fed, precious metal prices are soaring, with silver $Silver - main 2412(SImain)$ hitting its highest point since 2012. Silver has been one of the standout commodities this year. The Fed's shift toward more accommodative policies and prospects for further rate cuts are giving precious metals a boost. Plus, as China takes steps to invigorate its economy, the industrial demand for silver could rise, providing even more support for its price.Amelia Xiao Fu, head of commodities at CICC, stated:“With continuous rate cuts and potential ongoing stimulus from China, we expect silver to keep climbing in the coming quarters, aiming for $37.”Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank

Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ prices are holding steady near historic highs, with new U.S. consumer data pointing to economic weakness, providing a reason for further rate cuts in the coming months.The Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s FedWatch tool shows the probability of a 50-basis-point cut by the Fed at its November meeting has risen from about 40% to 57% following the recent policy meeting.BMO Capital Markets’ commodity analysts have released a new outlook, predicting an average gold price of around $2,700 per ounce in Q4, up 15% from their previous forecast of $2,350.Looking ahead to the next 12 months, they expect gold to average $2,663 per ounce in 2025, a 21% increase from their earlier estimate of $2,200. They’ve also raised their lon