Global financial markets experienced significant turbulence during the Spring Festival holiday period. The Trump administration's new tariff policies triggered a rollercoaster pattern in European and U.S. stock markets, with initial gains reversed, while Asian markets and international crude oil prices faced downward pressure.
Notably, COMEX April gold futures hit a historic high of $2,872 per ounce on February 3. The critical question now is: How will gold prices evolve moving forward? Our analysis suggests that three fundamental bullish factors could propel gold to new highs if current conditions persist.
I. Tariff Policies Amplify Market Volatility, Highlighting Gold's Safe-Haven Status
1. Trump Policy Impact Exceeds Expectations
The February 1 executive order imposing 25% additional tariffs on Canadian/Mexican imports and 10% tariffs on Chinese goods triggered an immediate market reaction. The VIX volatility index surged from 14.85 to 18.62 the following day, reflecting rapid risk aversion. Three structural risks merit attention:
Repeated White House suggestions that tariffs could fund federal budgets, indicating potential expansion
Manufacturing reshoring requires permanent tariff support.
Official statements suggest confidence in the U.S. economy's tariff absorption capacity.
2. Capital Flows Confirm Safe-Haven Demand
The London spot gold market shows unusual tightness:
COMEX daily deliveries surged in late January
Physical delivery timelines extended from days to 4-8 weeks,London gold lease rates hit 2008 crisis levels.This indicates accelerated physical gold flows to U.S. warehouses for contract settlement.
II. Fed Policy Enters Observation Phase Without Clear Pivot Signals
Rate Pause ≠ Tightening Resumption
The January FOMC meeting maintained rates at 4.25%-4.5% while replacing "easing inflation pressures" with "labor market resilience" in its statement. Key observations:
10-year TIPS yields declined from 2.34% (Jan 10) to 2.09% (Feb 3).
Policy rates remain above neutral levels, requiring more inflation confirmation.
Q4 GDP growth slowed to 2.3% annualized (vs 3.1% prior),December savings rate hit 3.8% (2-year low), with tariff-driven consumption spikes showing questionable sustainability.
III. Gold Allocation Rationale Strengthens: Dual Growth Drivers
1. Investment Demand Surge
SPDR Gold ETF holdings rebounded from 857.02 tonnes (Jan 27) to 865.63 tonnes (Feb 3), showing coordinated physical and paper gold accumulation by institutions and retail investors.
2. Monetary Role Reassessment
Central banks purchased 117 tonnes via London OTC markets in November (vs 46-tonne forecast), accelerating de-dollarization as gold becomes a core hedge against USD credit risks.
Conclusion:
Gold's bullish trajectory appears sustainable due to:Persistent tariff-induced market volatility;Fed's rate pause representing observation rather than policy reversal;Combined short-term U.S. import hoarding and long-term central bank accumulation.
These factors create structural support for continued price strength.
$NQ100指数主连 2503(NQmain)$ $道琼斯指数主连 2503(YMmain)$ $SP500指数主连 2503(ESmain)$ $黄金主连 2504(GCmain)$ $WTI原油主连 2503(CLmain)$
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