The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ failed to hold above $6,392 today the key level mentioned in the Weekly Compass, and losing that level opened the door for a decline to the next daily support at $6,331. Despite this, oversold conditions remain extremely overstretched, with price sitting below the Bollinger Bands in several timeframes, suggesting a spike could occur at any moment. It is worth noting that the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ declined today even as indices closed in the red; this divergence often serves as an early warning of an imminent squeeze. In high-volatility environments, our daily levels are essential for navigating these wide weekly ranges. The VIX closed today at 30. From the securities posted i
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$SPX $QQQ $IWM Gap Fill Signals Potential Squeeze of 2 to 3%
Potential squeeze size based on the nearest gaps: -> $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +2.1% -> $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ : +2.7% -> $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ : +3.2% The conviction with which price crosses intermediate levels and reclaims these gaps will determine the overall strength of the bounce. :As mentioned this weekend and yesterday, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ oversold conditions were extreme. Moment of Truth: Price filled the gap and hit the 10DMA, the dominant March trendline. Today’s difference: the candle shows bullish conviction. Next major hurdle: the 200DMA. Bulls face a monumental task in April: neutralizing this bear
$SPX $QQQ $IWM Gap Fill Signals Potential Squeeze of 2 to 3%
$SPX Weak Close With $VIX Falling and Gap Fill Levels Acting as Magnets
$SPX Weak Close With $VIX Falling and Gap Fill Levels Acting as Magnets
$SPX, $VIX, $XLF Signal Oversold Bounce Setup
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ : Be careful about being too bearish in the short term, as the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ also closed in the red. The similarity to 2025 is impressive, especially with the RSI below 30 and the lower Bollinger Band breached; both oversold conditions that preceded a bounce. Bounce in the making, futures gaping down create a bullish magnet for a likely bounce this week. $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ : The Money Flow Index for the Financial Sector closed last Friday at historical lows: levels seen only 8 times in the last 25 years. A bounce followed every single time. Today's action was constructive. Shortest-lived spikes: 2011 (+5%) an
$SPX, $VIX, $XLF Signal Oversold Bounce Setup
$NVDA Gap Magnet + Reclaim $170 = Bounce Confirmation
Markets are at extreme oversold levels. $NDX and $SPX MFI signals historically trigger relief rallies, while $NVDA below its lower Bollinger Band points to mean reversion. A tactical bounce is likely, pending key level reclaim. 1. $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ Over the last 25 years, a relief rally has followed when the Money Flow Index reached current levels. There have been no exceptions, including the dot-com bubble in 2000, the 2008 Financial Crisis, and the 2022 bear market. The current reading is below the 2025 lows. 2. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ The Money Flow Index is at significant lows, suggesting a tactical bounce is nearby as analyzed since 2000. Black arrows highlight relief bounces even in bear markets. While m
$NVDA Gap Magnet + Reclaim $170 = Bounce Confirmation
$SPX, $QQQ, $XOM, Mag 7 — Critical Levels Posted in Premium Chat
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ This level of extreme fear (10) has been seen at previous bottoms, including those that preceded bear market rallies in 2022. The shortest bounce before lower lows occurred in 2025. A bullish divergence is now appearing, which validates the thesis. Smart money confidence is growing while dumb money confidence falls. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index has hit Extreme Fear. Yes, the setups across the board look ugly, but chasing shorts here is riskier than remaining patient.🌮 $Netflix(NFLX)$ : Not everything is bearish. Key levels to watch were posted this morning for this one, $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$
$SPX, $QQQ, $XOM, Mag 7 — Critical Levels Posted in Premium Chat
Oil >$100, Risk-Off Builds, $SPX $QQQ Extend Selloff
U.S. equities suffered another week of significant losses, the sustained selling pressure pushed multiple major indices into formal correction territory, defined as a 10% decline from recent record highs. $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ closed exactly 10% below its peak. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ and $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ are now down 12.6% and 11.4% respectively. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ ended the week 8.8% below its own record close. The Federal Reserve reinforced the bearish backdrop by holding rates at 3.50% to 3.75% during its March meeting while raising its inflation forecast to 2.7%. Borrowing costs are staying elevated, and the market is fin
Oil >$100, Risk-Off Builds, $SPX $QQQ Extend Selloff
Market Tests the Lows as $QQQ Band Break and $AAPL Hold Key Levels
Markets are showing signs of extreme short-term stress, with weak breadth and key technical levels being tested. While oversold conditions suggest a potential bounce, the key question is whether this is the start of a sustainable recovery or just a temporary relief move. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ When the percentage of stocks above their 20 and 50 daily moving averages is this low (below 20%), a bottom is typically in or nearby. How sustainable will be this bounce? 2. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Once again, the lower Bollinger brand has been breached. This event has been followed by rallies (✅) or tactical bounces (no mark). When the lower band continues breached (❌) it has been an early signal of a significant bounce
Market Tests the Lows as $QQQ Band Break and $AAPL Hold Key Levels
Critical Levels Ahead: $SPX Sentiment Extreme, $ES Eyes $6,664, $IWM Holds Edge
Markets are approaching a key inflection point. Bearish sentiment on $SPX has reached elevated levels often seen near short-term bottoms, while $ES is retesting major moving averages and $IWM shows stronger structure. The next few sessions will be critical as key levels determine whether a bounce can take hold or downside continues. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Bearish sentiment stands at 52%, surpassing the bottoms of both the 2023 corrections and the 2024 carry trade unwind. While bearishness could still drift higher, reaching these extremes have been printed near sustainable bounces. 2. $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ Moment of truth: The 200DMA is being retested, along with the 10DMA which has
Critical Levels Ahead: $SPX Sentiment Extreme, $ES Eyes $6,664, $IWM Holds Edge
Oversold Signals Flash: QQQ, AAPL Hint at Near-Term Bounce
$Apple(AAPL)$ : Potential reversal setup at the 200DMA and the lower edge of the volume shelf. The latest indecisive price action is validated by high daily volume. If it bounces, $249.7 must be recovered next week to consider sustainable move. Bounce incoming? The S/R levels for next week are here, these levels frame price action even in volatile environments. These are the zones where algorithms and institutions react. Key weekly levels that any bounce in the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ and more must reclaim $Financial Select Se
Oversold Signals Flash: QQQ, AAPL Hint at Near-Term Bounce
Make or Break: Oversold Conditions Meet a Broken 200DMA
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75%. Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged inflation progress but cited Middle East developments as a source of deep economic uncertainty. Rate cut expectations for 2026 have been largely priced out. The higher for longer environment weighed on utilities and technology. $Micron Technology(MU)$ fell nearly 4% after third-quarter guidance missed expectations. In crypto, Bitcoin briefly decoupled from equities to reclaim $74,000 on Monday before institutional selling renewed pressure through the week. If you missed the latest special about oil and stagflation, including a long term study of major tops in the stock market, make sure to read it, this is essential for long term investors and trade
Make or Break: Oversold Conditions Meet a Broken 200DMA
$SPX Time Bottom Near, $SPY Tests $654 Support
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ A bottom is near in terms of Time, not necessarily in terms of Price. Money Flow is nearing the 2018, 2022, and 2025 lows and has already dropped below the 2020 levels. While the %B is also oversold. After four red weeks, a flush could accelerate the case for a reversal. $SPY $654 was the "must-visit" price I shared on Saturday with subscribers, even with Monday's spike. Today’s low hit $655🎯. Given the support zone (200DMA + Shelf), $659 must hold tomorrow for a minimum recovery to $663; otherwise, today was a gap fill and the decline resumes. SPY Another Inverse "U-Turn": This has been the price action mood for over a month. Looks like a seventh week
$SPX Time Bottom Near, $SPY Tests $654 Support
$SPX Sell-Off, $QQQ Hits $577.5, $IWM Breaks Down
The stock market is struggling. With a rapid sell-off, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is down -5.41% in March alone and is heading toward correction territory. For now, the “vanishing bounces” continue; this was the seventh out of the last eight weeks to feature this pattern. This typically means a green opening driven by extreme oversold conditions, followed by a fading rally. Lately, the sell-offs have accelerated earlier in the week. While the S&P 500 recovered its Central Weekly Level of $6,700 on Monday, the price action vanished on Tuesday, and the decline intensified by Wednesday when that level flipped to resistance. Our downside levels were met: $6,555 acted as first line on defense on Thursday, and then $6,479 is where the price bounced on
$SPX Sell-Off, $QQQ Hits $577.5, $IWM Breaks Down
$SPY Inverse “U-Turns” Continue, and Target $654
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Another Inverse "U-Turn": This has been the price action mood for over a month. Looks like a seventh week of "fake bounces," is coming adding another arch to the structure. $654 is the the primary downside destination for the week. On Saturday, I posted the following outlook: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is bearish below $6,700.4. I also included specific volatility levels and additional technical indicators to monitor. This morning, I shared a chart via chat and email suggesting a bearish reversal. This outlook is based on yesterday’s vanishing rally and current bearish conditions, with both the SPY and $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ trading below the
$SPY Inverse “U-Turns” Continue, and Target $654
The Fed Is Stuck: Inflation, Oil, and Growth Collide
The Federal Reserve held rates steady today at 3.50% – 3.75%, as the market expected. But the real story was not the decision itself, it was what Powell said. When there is a FOMC meeting, you don’t pay attention to the rate decision alone, the Fed Chair words are more important. Similar when you listen to an earnings call, beating expectations is not as important as the guidance. Powell said the Fed was not making as much progress on inflation as hoped. “The forecast is that we will be making progress on inflation, not as much as we had hoped, but some progress on inflation” On oil and the Iran War: “Near-term measures of inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks, likely reflecting the substantial rise in oil prices caused by the supply disruptions in the Middle East. In the near
The Fed Is Stuck: Inflation, Oil, and Growth Collide
$SPX Shooting Star, $SPY Bounce Fades — Bearish Until Break Above Highs
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Daily Shooting Star: Yesterday's highs were recovered, but a lack of conviction prints the same setup seen last week. Reclaiming the 5DMA is positive, but vanishing moves persist at downtrend resistance below the 10DMA. Levels must hold through #FOMC, or expect a déjà vu. Many resistances at this zone. For that reason the lack of conviction is something big to watch. The reaction to interest rate decision will tell. Bearish until proven otherwise. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ : The anticipated spike played out, bringing price back into the Bollinger range. However, today's most critical takeaway is the vanishing rally. The downtrend remains intact; price must conquer today’s high b
$SPX Shooting Star, $SPY Bounce Fades — Bearish Until Break Above Highs
$SPY Nearing Capitulation Levels as $NDX Tests Critical 200DMA Support
Market indicators suggest the selloff may be approaching a timing bottom, with $SPY money flows nearing levels seen during past crash periods. Meanwhile, $NDX is sitting at a critical support confluence near the 200DMA, where a breakdown could accelerate downside momentum. Among the Magnificent Seven tracked by $MAGS, only $GOOG, $AAPL, and $NVDA remain above their key long-term trend support. 1. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ The money flow is nearing bottoming levels seen during the 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2025 crashes. A bottom is near in terms of time, not necessarily in the magnitude of flush. A bounce must be sustained in short and long term. See the local bottom of March 2022 for context. 2. $NASDAQ 100
$SPY Nearing Capitulation Levels as $NDX Tests Critical 200DMA Support
Choppy Markets: SPX & NDX Show Weak Bearish Conviction
The stock market has been characterized by exceptionally choppy price action over the last seven weeks. We witnessed the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ go nowhere for three months, spanning the final quarter of 2025 through January 2026. That directionless route is found a resolution to the bearish side as anticipated at the end of January when this publication anticipated “Cracks Under the Surface”. However, the most striking feature of the current market is the lack of conviction. If you are a new trader feeling frustrated by the inability to find a clear trend as a bull or a bear, do not worry. This environment is uncommon. Usually, pullbacks are marked by solid bearish conviction candles
Choppy Markets: SPX & NDX Show Weak Bearish Conviction
SPX Falls Below Central Monthly Level as Volatility Drives Repeated Reversals
Losing the Central Monthly level for a short period like in November happens a couple of times per year, however, few weeks ago I highlighted that staying below this level for long is a concerning condition from corrections and bear markets. Currently the price for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and most of the securities from our watchlist is below this level. The second chart is a zoom in of the Central Weekly Level for the same period, see the price breaching the “C” marked in green in some weeks as part of the normal price action of a bull market. Since February, the dotted area shows how volatile has been the price printing multiple invalidations or reversals during the same week. The zoomed chart includes the Central Weekly Level AND the support an
SPX Falls Below Central Monthly Level as Volatility Drives Repeated Reversals
Oil Shock & Volatility Hit SPX as NDX Slides While Bitcoin Rebounds
U.S. equities endured extreme volatility this week, recording a third consecutive weekly decline and establishing new closing lows for 2026. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is now down -3.1% YTD, converging with the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ , while the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ trails closely with a -2.8% loss for the year. Escalating conflict in the Middle East remained the main driver of market pressure. An Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz sent energy costs soaring. Oil futures $WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$ closed at $99. Rising fuel costs combined with unexpected labor market weakness to stoke fears of slowing growth and rising
Oil Shock & Volatility Hit SPX as NDX Slides While Bitcoin Rebounds
Extreme Oversold Signals Build for $SPX as $SPY and $DIA Stretch Lower
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Even during persistent downtrends, such as the 2025 tariff crash, breaching the lower Bollinger Band has consistently represented an extreme condition that triggers relief bounces. No exception. There is no doubt a short squeeze is coming considering also the McClellan Oscillator that is more oversold than it was in the 2025 bottom. The key point is to watch if $6,882 is recovered, that would validate a solid and sustainable bounce. The bearish move is overextended as posted previously, and seasonality favors a bounce. $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$ has the same overextended setup as the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ . Fo
Extreme Oversold Signals Build for $SPX as $SPY and $DIA Stretch Lower
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