SmartReversals
SmartReversals
I care about helping you navigate this market. Nowadays, it's all about permabears & permabulls, I use technical indicators with objectivity. God First.
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09-18 07:46

$SPY Fills 758 as $QQQ Tests Resistance and $AMD Hits 550

Three very different setups are playing out across the tape today. 🔴 $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ : The gap at 758 has now been filled, matching 7,610 on $SPX. That move was on the radar after price broke above the upper Bollinger Band. The market first trapped the bears, then turned choppy and eventually dropped 3.3% from the ATH. Now sentiment has flipped bearish, price has reached the lower Bollinger Band, and there’s a fresh gap to watch. 🔵 $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ : Yesterday’s oversold reading helped fuel the rebound. Price is now testing the bearish diagonal. The catch? There’s still a 711 gap sitting below. A close back above the diagonal could delay the retracement and give the short-term bulls anot
$SPY Fills 758 as $QQQ Tests Resistance and $AMD Hits 550
avatarSmartReversals
09-17 08:11

Indices Falling as Anticipated - What Comes Next

Last week, we studied how to read the Setups Blueprint posted every weekend, covering momentum conditions, target prices, risk-to-reward ratios, and invalidation levels. We also reviewed how to manage support and resistance levels. Today, we will revisit them to reinforce the core concepts and examine the high-probability setups posted last Saturday, which accurately anticipated the decline in the indices and their targets 🎯. As anticipated last Saturday in the Weekly Compass, the market structure in the indices pointed toward bearish moves. Declines in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$, and Russell 2000 were mapped as high-probability setups: $SPDR Dow Jones
Indices Falling as Anticipated - What Comes Next
avatarSmartReversals
09-16 08:07

$SMH Is at a Crossroads With a Bounce in Play

$VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ is sitting in an interesting spot. After the recent weakness, today’s candle showed some hesitation right around the lower Bollinger Band. That kind of price action can leave room for a tactical bounce before the next bigger move takes shape. 👀 The gap above is the level I’m watching first. If price starts moving toward it, that could keep $SMH stuck in another choppy session rather than giving us a clean directional move. But the downside levels still matter. ⚠️ No bounce and the pressure can build quickly toward 520, with 508 becoming the next level to watch. So for now, I’m keeping it simple: 📈 Bounce from the lower band → watch the gap 🌀 Gap pull → expect more chop 📉 No bounce → 520, then 508 come into focus $SMH
$SMH Is at a Crossroads With a Bounce in Play
avatarSmartReversals
09-16 08:04

SPX filled its Gap, Is NDX Next?

The Central Daily Level (CDL) anticipated yesterday for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ at 7,620 was lost right at the opening today. There was no early warning for a bounce, and momentum remained bearish throughout the day with that level as resistance. Price action breached the first daily support level of 7,592 and found consolidation around the weekly level of 7,585. Momentum is bearish. The gap left behind on August 8th at 7,610 was finally closed yesterday, and price action continued its downward trend. The question today is: Will the Nasdaq100 follow? 28,842K is a bearish magnet and 29,2K is a bullish one, The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kicked off its September policy meeting today. Interest rate expectations consider a 92% probability of
SPX filled its Gap, Is NDX Next?

$SPX Lost 7,657 While $NFLX and $WMT Hit Their Targets

The bearish thesis for the major indices posted on Saturday was confirmed today; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ opened below the central daily and weekly levels, setting a bearish momentum right from the start. The daily level (CDL) of 7,657 was lost from the opening and the price found support at 7,596.5, a support layer provided on Friday. The day was red for semiconductors, but it was not as ugly for the stock market in general. Individual names that I mentioned on Saturday as valid bulls like $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ showed strength or resilience today. Among the setups highlighted with th
$SPX Lost 7,657 While $NFLX and $WMT Hit Their Targets

$AMD Breaks the Downtrend But May Need to Consolidate

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ just cleared the symmetric series of lower highs, giving the chart a much more constructive look. The bigger confirmation is the recovery of the 50DMA, which puts the stock back above an important trend reference. Recent technical data also shows the 50-day average has shifted back into a bullish signal. 🔥 The breakout is encouraging. But I wouldn’t chase the move blindly. The oscillator is suggesting that some consolidation could come next, allowing the breakout to reset before another push higher. There’s also an open gap overhead that could become a near-term hurdle, especially with all the AI-related noise heading into the week. So the setup looks pretty straightforward: 📈 Breakout confirmed 📊 50DMA recovered ⏳ Con
$AMD Breaks the Downtrend But May Need to Consolidate

Nasdaq Is Approaching a Key Decision Point

Lower highs have dominated since June, and $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(NQmain)$ is now pressing against the 20WMA. The bigger move may be close. A clean break below the 20WMA would put the 40WMA zone next in focus — roughly 9% lower from current levels. Losing 29,027 would add another major bearish signal. Meanwhile, the bearish diagonal on $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ remains intact. Today’s indecisive action was rejected at that trendline, keeping the downside structure alive. 🎯 Key levels 729 → potential short setup if reclaimed/filled first 712 → downside gap target 701 → next gap target 29,027 → critical $NQ_F support 20WMA → 40WMA → major downside path With Fed rate-hike odds sitting around 86%, there’s
Nasdaq Is Approaching a Key Decision Point

Volatility Ahead: Rate Hike Risks Meet Weakening Breadth

Last week was choppy for the market as anticipated. I highlighted declines in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones as high-probability setups, using $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$ as the instruments to set the targets. DIA reached the bearish target of 522 for a -2.2% move 🎯, and SPY hit 761.8 for a -1.1% move 🎯. They actually extended their losses, but I mark the targets officially reached. Being bearish on the indices doesn’t mean that the entire market will fall; successful traders know that very well. While we were bearish on the indices, individual setups for
Volatility Ahead: Rate Hike Risks Meet Weakening Breadth

$SPX and $QQQ Still Have Unfinished Business

Good morning, tigers ☕️📈 The tape is showing some hesitation, but I’m not convinced the move down is finished yet. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 📊 A doji has formed near the lower Bollinger Band, putting the index in an oversold area. That opens the door for a technical bounce, especially with the gaps above still sitting as potential targets. If CPI comes in around expectations, it could give that bounce some extra fuel. Still, I’d treat any rebound as a reaction until the chart proves otherwise. The downside move doesn’t look complete yet. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ ⚠️ The bearish diagonal remains intact, with lower highs continuing to develop. Today’s indecisive action ran into rejection right at that trendline. Below, t
$SPX and $QQQ Still Have Unfinished Business

DIA, SPY, AMD Among Seven Winners in a 4.1% Average Week

Another highly successful week has come to a close. The high-probability setups posted last week played out with an impressive success rate, hitting our price targets with high accuracy: $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$ : Reached the bearish target of 522 for a -2.2% move 🎯 $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ : Crossed the bearish target of 761.8 for a -1.1% move 🎯 $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ : Comfortably exceeded the 504 target for a +5.5% move 🎯 $iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN(VXX)$ : Spiked well above 18.5 for a +4.4% move 🎯 $Broadcom(AVGO)$<
DIA, SPY, AMD Among Seven Winners in a 4.1% Average Week

$SPX Lost 7,640.4 and the Bearish Targets Came Into Play

U.S. stocks fell for a fourth consecutive session today as a fresh spike in crude oil prices and jumping Treasury yields weighed on investor sentiment. The August Producer Price Index (PPI) report revealed wholesale inflation grew by 0.4% month-over-month and 5.4% year-over-year. The combination of stubborn inflation and triple-digit oil prices (CL=F: $103.9) fueled bets that the FED will raise interest rates next week, with the current probability sitting at 71%. Adding pressure to the market, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates by 25 basis points today to control inflation pressures. Yesterday I noted that the bearish move was unlikely complete for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , considering a potential gap fill attempt to 7,667. The
$SPX Lost 7,640.4 and the Bearish Targets Came Into Play

SPX Drops as Expected, While Individual Names Outperform

In last Saturday's Weekly Compass, I anticipated a high probability of a bearish reversal in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and a decline in the Dow Jones ETF ( $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$ ), alongside bullish moves for $SpaceX(SPCX)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$, and $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ , plus a spike in $iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN(VXX)$ . Today, those setups played out as expected: SPX (-0.58%), DIA (-1.1% reaching $528 🎯), SPCX (+3.7% to $154.1 🎯), AVGO (+2.9% touching 372.9 🎯), AMD (+5.9% crossi
SPX Drops as Expected, While Individual Names Outperform

$SPY Is Coiling, $MU Holds Support, $AMD Needs 471.5 👀

Three charts I’m watching closely this week: $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ — the squeeze is getting tighter 🔥 Bollinger Bands are narrowing, which tells us volatility is being compressed. That usually doesn’t last forever. If the sequence of lower highs continues and $SPY finally comes down to the 766 gap, things could move quickly through the volume shelves. 🎯 Next support: ~754 So I’m not chasing the current range. I’m waiting for the compression to resolve and watching 766 as the first major test. $Micron Technology(MU)$ — the reset looks healthy 🧠 $MU has held its 20-week moving average after working off an overbought condition. That’s exactly the kind of reset you want to see in a strong trend. The
$SPY Is Coiling, $MU Holds Support, $AMD Needs 471.5 👀

Is Volatility About to Spike?

I began investing and trading with real dedication and discipline in 2016. That is already 10 years ago, when I started buying stocks the way many people do: reading the news, trying to build a bullish case with fundamentals, and listening to expert opinions. I always liked candlesticks as a visual representation of price action, and back then, I studied several books on the subject. Because no single technical indicator works in isolation, I learned about oscillators (Stochastic, RSI), Bollinger Bands, moving averages, and measuring my performance against the SPX. Back then, I focused heavily on the FAANGs (if you remember that acronym, congratulations; staying in this arena this long puts you far above the average investor or trader: $Meta Platforms
Is Volatility About to Spike?

$SPX Is Ripping. $QQQ Is Sending a Warning

Another day, another rally — and another gap. For $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , I’m still not interested in fighting the trend. The market keeps pushing higher, so there’s no reason to force a bearish trade here. That said, 7,610 has already been tested, and I still have 7,681 on the radar. Eventually, I expect that level to come into play, while 7,610 remains unfinished business. 👀 In a choppy market, individual names can tell a very different story. $SpaceX(SPCX)$ $Netflix(NFLX)$ $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ are all holding the bullish setup we expected. 🚀 Then there’s
$SPX Is Ripping. $QQQ Is Sending a Warning

7 Wins, 2 Invalidations and One Choppy Market

The stock market closed muted this week. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ finished flat (+0.1%) following an intra-week pullback that exceeded our bearish target of 7,642. By Thursday, weak economic data (ADP) and dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller (who noted he would support holding interest rates steady this month if incoming inflation numbers remain favorable) sparked a relief rally. However, as I highlighted last night in my daily note, key structural elements warranted skepticism regarding continuation for today. To avoid premature moves, I rely on daily levels to validate each thesis. For today, 7,730 served as the anticipated central daily level (CDL) dictating bullish or bearish momentum. Once price broke below that lev
7 Wins, 2 Invalidations and One Choppy Market

New Rally, New Gap

U.S. stocks rallied propelled upward as Treasury yields fell following comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who indicated he would support holding interest rates steady at the upcoming policy meeting later this month. The probabilities for a rate hike in the next FOMC meeting fell to 50% today, from 63% yesterday, a major change that fueled the stock market. On the macro site, the ADP private sector payrolls report showed an increase of 38,000 jobs in August, coming in below estimates and providing further evidence of a cooling labor market, a factor that also favors continuation in interest rates instead of a rate hike. With that said, the rally left a new gap open for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ at 7,681 and for the
New Rally, New Gap

$IWM, $NFLX, $MSFT Bulls Are Watching These Levels

Three charts are standing out for three very different reasons today. 1. $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ 🎯 The bearish setup from Saturday played out almost perfectly. The downside targets were 292 and 289, and yesterday’s low came in at 289.40. Small caps are now down 1.7% this week, while the chart is starting to look oversold. That opens the door for a technical bounce. But bulls still have something to prove. 👉 $291.20 needs to be reclaimed to flip short-term momentum back up. If that happens, 292.40 comes back into focus. For now, I’m watching the reaction around 291.20 before getting too aggressive. 2. $Netflix(NFLX)$ 🍿 NFLX has been much more constructive since the extreme oversold reading around ea
$IWM, $NFLX, $MSFT Bulls Are Watching These Levels

Fundamental and Technical Indicators in One Chart: MSFT, AAPL, TSLA, and more

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ bounced today following oversold conditions and the indecisive price action (daily doji) observed yesterday. The bearish target for the week at 7,642.7 was breached, and then, the Central Daily Level that was modeled yesterday to consider bullish or bearish momentum was smoothly reclaimed today at the open. The SP500 opened below 7,635.4 and steadily gained upside momentum, moving toward the next bullish target of 7,659 before approaching with 7,681 to the next modeled level of 7,687. Price action printed a technical bounce, but tomorrow we will see how sustainable this move is by holding tomorrow’s central daily level (CDL and posted below), especially given that today’s rejection occurred right at a key monthly level for
Fundamental and Technical Indicators in One Chart: MSFT, AAPL, TSLA, and more

SPX: Pullback in Play, Key Annual Level Tested

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is down -1% so far this week, losing its central weekly level of 7,707.1 as anticipated on Saturday and breaching the bearish target of 7,642. The index is currently testing the critical 7,638 zone; if it isn’t reclaimed quickly, the downward move could gain momentum. Meanwhile, the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ , which was hovering at year-to-date lows and primed for a bounce, has rallied +13% this week alone. Once the $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(ESmain)$ lost the anticipated Central Daily level of 7,700 overnight, the bearish continuation was triggered to start the month. The E-mini futures found temporary morning support at 7,651
SPX: Pullback in Play, Key Annual Level Tested

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