U.S. equities rallied sharply on Friday to conclude a volatile trading week, posting their strongest single-session performance since May 2025.
The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ achieved a historic milestone by crossing and closing above the 50,000 threshold for the first time. It advanced 2.5% to settle at 50,115.67. Broader benchmarks also participated in the relief rally. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 1.9% and the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ 2.2%. This resurgence followed a week marked by heavy losses in the technology sector and growing anxiety over the artificial intelligence trade.
This publication relies on precise targets for both bullish and bearish moves, and this week perfectly illustrated why that discipline is essential. We have used these levels to navigate reversals, this week highlighted their relevance in assessing potential bounces as well.
The current stage of the bull market is its most complex. Market conditions lack broad bullish strength, and the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ was technically due for a bounce as we anticipated. Furthermore, Bitcoin acted as a “thermometer” for risk aversion. What we witnessed this week based on bearish crossovers studied on the weekly charts, lead to an intra-week pullback, as considered in the Weekly Compass.
Professional Navigation: Setting the Targets
Setting targets is about managing reasonable expectations and being prepared for the moment a trend might exhaust itself. Here is how our levels performed this week:
-
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ : We anticipated a breach of the Central Weekly Level with a primary target of 685.2 and a likely extension to 678.54, the actual bottom print was at 675.7 before reversing.
-
$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ : Our extension target of 314 was reached with high conviction, allowing traders to lock in profits before a mid-week pullback and subsequent recovery.
-
$iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ (Bitcoin ETF): We anticipated an -8.5% decline with an extended target of 43.5. This was reached quickly at the start of the week and extended further.
-
$Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ : Our bullish expectation was met and exceeded. Instead of just the 2.3% target extension at $492.3, the stock rallied 5.72%.
-
$VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ : We expected a decline with an extended target of 382.5 (-5.3%). The ETF found support near 374.08 before bouncing.
-
$Wal-Mart(WMT)$ : Anticipated a 2.2% rally to 121.8. This target was exceeded, allowing traders who trail stops to capture a total rally of 4.13%.
-
$Apple(AAPL)$ : Our bullish setup from a week ago anticipated a move to 276.5 (+3.6%). Apple crossed this level with strength, hitting an initial extended target of 269.4 (+7.2%) earlier in the week.
-
$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ : The bearish extended target was set at 607.3 (a -2.4% decline). The price extended to 596.24 and bounced precisely from that level.
-
$iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ : The bearish target of 252 (-2.7%) was reached with extreme precision before bouncing, this one was the most choppy one of all the ones anticipated.
Comments