$MU$ Micron shorts covered, followed by a $50 million bullish call order. I joked earlier that Trump wanted to buy MU cheap — shorting it hard with big put positions, and that once those puts closed, it might be time to bottom-fish. Turns out that wasn't entirely a joke. On Tuesday's open, two of the most prominent short-dated bearish positions were closed: $MU 20260424 420.0 PUT$ $MU 20260424 400.0 PUT$ $MU 20260424 380.0 PUT$  Then, looking at open interest, a new position emerged: 29,000 contracts of the June 18th 400 call $MU 2026

$NVDA$ I had expected range-bound trading this week. But looking at NVDA's put flow — mostly clustered around 160 — there's a good chance we retest the 60-week MA. Institutional call spread for this week: sell 172.5 call $NVDA 20260402 172.5 CALL$ , buy 180 call $NVDA 20260402 180.0 CALL$ . The sharp sell-off in AI chip names might shake some confidence in demand. But nothing has fundamentally changed. It's just that stocks aren't cheap enough for Trump yet. Once these names get beaten down enough, the Iran-Israel conflict will magically get resolved. Sounds absurd — but check back when MU hits 300. Medium-term call spread rolled down: 180–200 from 190

$META$ Meta plunged about 8% on Thursday, triggered by an announcement to increase its Texas AI data center investment to $10 billion — the project was previously only $1.5 billion. Isn't this exactly what capital expenditure looks like in earnings reports? And Meta is showing the market that not only will capex not shrink this year, it will keep growing. That explains why Google, Microsoft, and Amazon all sold off along with it. Meanwhile, Apple $AAPL$ held up — sure, iPhone sales expectations are down due to higher hardware costs, but Apple's annual capex is in the tens of billions, not hundreds. Oh, and let's not forget Tesla, the cash-burning heavyweight, so it got dragged down too. Then, as luck would have it, Trump also felt the market hadn't dropped enough. Geopolitics plus AI spend

At Thursday's open, Trump remarked that he expected stocks to fall harder. Shortly after, the market slid sharply and tested the previous low. What I took from that: the stocks he wants to buy haven't dropped enough. If I had to guess which one? Micron. No hard evidence — just a gut feeling. So maybe when MU hits 300, it's time to bottom-fish. Not because memory demand is broken — it's not. Just that the President isn't in the car yet. A lot of long positions opened Wednesday are now looking like left-hand entries. $NVDA$ The floor is 170. Wednesday saw a large sell put order on the April 10th 170 strike $NVDA 20260410 170.0 PUT$  — 27k contracts. Translation: no matter how volatile the next two weeks get, the expectation

$SPY$ When is it time to buy the dip? Not now. Simple reason: the current drop is pricing in the impact of surging oil prices — but what about earnings season? With triple witching (March 20) behind us, we're now three weeks out from Q2 earnings. Last quarter, spending was the main driver for stock moves. Spending up → stocks down. So if spending slows, does that mean stocks go up? Not so fast. Slower spending would signal that big tech is cautious on AI — which would almost certainly trigger a valuation reset. That's why I'm not surprised to see May puts targeting 600–625 on SPY. That's deeply pessimistic. Still, a bounce next week is possible. Put expirations are skewed further out than calls. So the market could swing violently either way — but options are expensive. Buying premium is a

$NVDA$ High probability: range-bound snoozefest. Low probability: total meltdown. War’s not over. Everyone’s waiting for Trump to drop the hammer. If he does — buy the crash. If peace breaks out instead? Short squeeze goes vertical. Usually selling calls here is risky. But for NVDA — and the rest of Mag 7 — squeeze potential is capped. Market’s glued to Q2 capex. No upside till earnings. Pick a strike with room, hedge it. Call spreads are fine. Institutions ran it back: same 185–190 spread as last week $NVDA 20260320 185.0 CALL$  $NVDA 20260320 190.0 CALL$ . 170 puts $NVDA 20260320 170.0 PUT$&

$SPY$ The biggest trade: 29k of the March 17th 647 puts bought $SPY 20260317 647.0 PUT$  — over $4M in premium. March 17th is a Tuesday. Expiry like that? Only makes sense if someone's positioning for a Monday gap lower. Trump may want a quiet runway into triple witching, but Wall Street and the political machine behind him aren’t all rowing the same boat. If shorts in the US market start stirring up trouble, hard to stop it — the payoff from a crash is just too big. And who knows — maybe Trump himself is backing the downside. Talking stability, but betting on chaos. $NVDA$ Same story, different week. Still betting on a pullback to 170 $NVDA 20260320 170.0 PUT$&nb

$NVDA$ Tuesday's put flow suggests the panic has cooled — at least for this week. But institutions aren't letting their guard down. 40k of the March 20th 170 puts were bought to open $NVDA 20260320 170.0 PUT$ . If oil's reaction is any guide, we're likely in for the scenario I laid out yesterday: chop into triple witching. So NVDA grinds 180–190 into next week. $USO$ USO saw big blocks in puts — mostly longer-dated. Two strike buckets: 100 and 90. Means the market sees a stalemate near-term. Probability of a major drop in the next two weeks? Low. $TSLA$ First medium-term bullish call in a while: 510 calls bought $TSLA 20260515 510.0 CALL$  — 15.9k contr

$NVDA$ I’m starting to think Trump is running the same playbook as last year — stall through March, let things get ugly in early April, then bounce. Monday saw 62k of the April 2nd 160 puts open $NVDA 20260402 160.0 PUT$ . Meanwhile, weekly 165 and 167.5 puts got closed out. Bearish flows are still there, but the consensus is breaking down compared to last Friday. One collar trade caught my eye: sell 180 call $NVDA 20260717 180.0 CALL$ , buy 2x 130 puts $NVDA 20260717 130.0 PUT$ . The 180 call premium? ~$20. The trader’s view: NVDA won’t break 200 by July. Selling the call funds the pu

$SPY$ SPY's path lower is becoming clearer — steadily grinding toward the 200-day moving average at 655. Notable flows: Weekly put spread: buy 655 $SPY 20260313 655.0 PUT$ , sell 635 $SPY 20260313 635.0 PUT$ . April put spread: buy 657 $SPY 20260402 657.0 PUT$ , sell 590 $SPY 20260402 590.0 PUT$ . Moral of the story: don't try to catch the knife before the 200-day MA. Whether we go sub-655? Hard to say. Trump's tweets aren't running the show anymore. $USO$ Oil and oil ETFs look like they'll resolve direction by March 20. C

$KWEB$ After breaking below its 200-week moving average, KWEB saw a few structured bullish flows — mostly hedged with puts. Target bounce zone: 32–33. From the expiry profile, this looks like a longer-term positioning. The rebound won't happen overnight. More chop and grind lower possible. But institutions now think these levels are worth structuring hedged long exposure. First structure: very low cost. After hedge, the call premium is just ~$0.30–0.50. Sell put 24 $KWEB 20270115 24.0 PUT$  — 50k Buy call 33 $KWEB 20260918 33.0 CALL$  — 50k Second structure: Sell put 28 $KWEB 20260417 28.0 PUT$&nb

Still holding the view from earlier this week: SPY has more downside. Next week's risk remains elevated. Buy Puts: NVDA weekly 170 put closed, rolled to $NVDA 20260313 167.5 PUT$  — delta 0.14, 126k opened.$SMH 20260313 362.5 PUT$  — delta -0.124, 52k opened.$MU 20260313 340.0 PUT$  — delta 0.112, 19k opened. Sell Puts: $AMD 20260313 170.0 PUT$  — delta -0.065, 57k opened. Direction Unknown: $TSM 20260313 327.5 PUT$  — delta -0.166, 20k opened. Summary: in

SPY has hit the first pullback target at 670. Whether it continues down to 650 next is anyone's guess. The Israel-Iran conflict could still escalate — or de-escalate. De-escalation leads to a bounce. Escalation leads to more downside. Trying to predict the trajectory of a chaotic event like this is a fool's game. But one thing's clear: downside feels easier than upside right now. Tail risk is getting priced in big time. Volatility is spiking. Puts are expensive. Look at SPY flows — traders are leaning into 0DTE and weekly puts to hedge crash risk. Short-dated, sharp, directional. This environment? Not ideal for the usual sell-put routine. Probably stays that way through mid-April — about 4–5 weeks, per Trump's own estimate. Options price risk. When risk stops behaving within a normal range

First, let's look at this week's large orders from the "Put Buyer." Sell Puts: $ORCL 20260306 116.0 PUT$ : 85,000 contracts sold to open $SMH 20260306 350.0 PUT$ : 26,000 contracts sold to open However, the play on AMD was different — Buy Puts: $AMD 20260306 160.0 PUT$ : 42,000 contracts bought to open Implied volatility (IV) on out-of-the-money semiconductor puts remains extremely elevated. This isn't due to bearish AI commentary, but rather the macroeconomic risk-off sentiment stemming from the Israel-Iran war, fueling expectations of a broad market pullback. It's crucial to note that t

$NVDA$ First glance at the flows and one thing's clear — 170 is the line. The 170 put for March 6 expiry just printed 238k contracts. At this size, whether buy or sell, it's gonna act as a magnet. But it also means breaking below 170 is gonna be tough. So back to the usual: 170–195 chop. Next week's institutional call spread? Sell 192.5 $NVDA 20260306 192.5 CALL$ , hedge with 200 $NVDA 20260306 200.0 CALL$ . And the put sales keep stacking: $ORCL 20260306 130.0 PUT$  — 48k opened$SMH 20260306 355.0 PUT$  — 62k opened<

NVDA's earnings event was priced like a macro print — and it traded like one too. FOMC-style: sell the headline, maybe bounce the next day. NVDA? We'll see. Early flow doesn’t look great. A bearish position opened: 10k April 2nd 160 puts $NVDA 20260402 160.0 PUT$ . Notional: ~$2M. April 2nd rings a bell. Last year’s tariff shock. This trade might not just be about earnings — macro’s in the driver’s seat. Iran, tariffs, China. Any of these could move markets. Even with macro hanging overhead, I still think NVDA is a sell-the-dip name. Could be a chop year. Range still looks 170–195. Unless Trump does something stupid — then all bets are off. This year is setup for a brutal bull-bear fight. Core question: where does the mon

Checking today's option flows — another wave of massive weekly put sales across chips: $AMD 20260227 192.5 PUT$  — 70k opened$AVGO 20260227 285.0 PUT$  — 20k opened$ORCL 20260227 131.0 PUT$  — 15k opened$SMH 20260227 390.0 PUT$  — 13k opened$TSM 20260227 360.0 PUT$  — 13k opened This has the same vibe as pre-holiday put sales back in Jan. But here's the twist: this time delta is below 0.08 — way lower than the 0.13–0.18 range from before. Dig deeper and

$NVDA$ The bull-bear battle this year has never been more intense. Just when I thought this week's NVDA earnings were a foregone conclusion, this order hit the tape: Buy Call $NVDA 20260320 205.0 CALL$  Block print: 29k contracts opened. Estimated notional: $13M+. Meanwhile, the weekly call spread camp is running: Sell Call 195 $NVDA 20260227 195.0 CALL$  / Buy Call 202.5 $NVDA 20260227 202.5 CALL$ . Translation: this week, 195 likely caps. And looking at put flow, downside could stretch below 180. But here’s the twist — call strikes below 200 are thinning out. Totally different from

$MU 20260220 360.0 PUT$