Market Outlook of S&P500 (13Apr2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 has completed a bottom cross-over, showing an uptrend. Chaikin Money Flow The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at -0.14, indicating there is more selling momentum than buying pressure in the market. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, the MA50 line has begun to slope downward for the first time in recent months, raising the possibility of a “death cross” forming—a bearish technical pa

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 13Apr2026) Existing Home Sales Existing home sales for March are projected to reach 4.05 million units. This figure serves as a reliable indicator of the overall health of the American real estate market, reflecting both buyer demand and market activity. Home Builder Confidence The home builder confidence index is expected to decrease to 37, down from 38 in the previous month. This index is an important gauge for the residential and real estate industry, providing insight into the sentiment of builders regarding current and future market conditions. Producer Price Index (PPI) One of the most closely watched macroeconomic reports in the upcoming week is the core Producer Price Index (PPI) for March. The PPI measures inflation affecting producers,

The recent turbulence feels noisy, but like Buffett said, in the grand scheme of Berkshire's history—with three 50%+ drawdowns—this barely registers. Markets have always recovered from far worse, and panicking rarely pays. Q1: What does Buffett's 'big decline' actually mean to you? To me, it's not another 5-10% dip on the S&P (we've seen plenty of those). A true "big decline" is the kind that creates genuine fear and capitulation—think 20-30%+ corrections or worse, where high-quality businesses trade at attractive valuations with a margin of safety. We're not there yet. Modest pullbacks don't move the needle for patient capital. Q2: If you were Buffett right now, what would you do? Stay disciplined and patient. Keep the massive cash (or dry powder) ready in safe, liquid assets earning

As a regular Singaporean middle-class investor  Ive been nodding along to Warren Buffett’s recent vibes. The Oracle of Omaha (or his successors at Berkshire) has been sitting on a mountain of cash—hundreds of billions—while being a net seller of stocks for quarters on end. Valuations look stretched, the Buffett Indicator is screaming high, and he’s basically saying: “Not much compelling out there right now. Patience is the name of the game.” It makes sense. With the S&P 500 and tech names trading at lofty multiples amid AI hype, chasing growth stocks feels like paying full price for a crowded kopitiam during peak lunch hour. Safe Singapore options? Fixed deposits are hovering around 1.3–1.5% p.a. at best, T-bills barely cracking 1.4%, and even USD deposits top out around 3.5–3.6%.

-20% would be significant. Continue to buy low cost index funds using dollar cost averaging approach. 

My Investing Muse Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies AMAZON JUST EXECUTED 16,000 WORKERS WHILE BURNING $200 BILLION ON AI INFRASTRUCTURE We are expecting more layoff news to come. Let us monitor and hedge accordingly. Private Credit - a canary in the Financial coalmine? The Private Credit sector continues to leak confidence with withdrawal limits and default news. Will this trip up the market? Probably. Data Centre updates Half of US data centers planned for 2026 are expected to be delayed or canceled. One big reason is shortage of electrical equipment, such as transformers, switchgear and batteries. US doesn’t have manufacturing capacity, forcing it to rely on imports. - Bloomberg Outdated electricity grids are now a “national security risk,” JPMorgan has said. The promised AI of a multi

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 06Apr2026) Market Closures Hong Kong and China will be closed on Monday, April 6, in observance of the Ching Ming festival. Additionally, Hong Kong will remain closed on Tuesday, April 7, for the Easter public holiday. Key Economic Releases The ISM non-manufacturing prices for March will be released, with the previous index reporting 63, indicating clear and strong inflationary growth. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI is forecasted at 54.8, suggesting continued expansion in the services sector. However, the elevated prices are likely to be passed on to consumers. Durable goods orders for February are anticipated to decline by 1.0% month over month, offering insight into current consumption trends. Bond Market Activity The upcoming 10-year note auct

Expected more decline coming soon because of Trump. Agreed with Buffett

Now, China has its own oil majors, just like the Americans. But we’d argue the Chinese names offer a better value proposition for investors. Why? Higher dividend yields. Oil prices have stayed elevated since the Iran War started. And for upstream oil & gas companies, this is great news — the oil they pump out of the ground is suddenly worth a lot more. Sell at higher prices, profit margins widen. Simple. But it’s less fortunate for downstream players — refineries and petrol retailers — because their cost of fuel has gone up. So no, it’s not the entire oil and gas industry that benefits from high oil prices. The distinction matters. Take ExxonMobil. The dividend yield is just 2.4%. And after a 30% dividend withholding tax, investors are left with roughly 1.7%. Compare that to China’s oi

Waiting for the fish

shorted $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ(SQQQ)$ at 80, if it drops further (TQQQ rises), i'd profit 😎 Time to take profit for short term play

Warren Buffett's Empty Hook:  Is He Waiting for Big Discounts? 🌟🌟🌟If you are staring at the S&P500 and wondering why Warren Buffett has not pulled the trigger yet, you are not alone.  While the rest of us are buying the dip in April he is saying no to "bottom fishing". Despite sitting on a monstrous, record breaking cash pile of USD 380 billion, Warren Buffett is choosing to wait.  For the Oracle of Omaha, a Big Decline isn't just a red day.  It is a fundamental restructuring of the market. What a Big Decline Actually Means for Me When the market drops another 10% to 20% it is more than just shrinking numbers.  It is a valuation reset that cleans out the expensive AI hype froth. The Yield Boost:  As prices fall, dividend yields instantly rise.  The de

Now Cash is King, waiting for big fish What's your fish? 

Nothing screams “forward-looking markets” like building earnings models in a calm, pre-war fantasy… right before the U.S. decides to take a swing at Iran and set the oil market on fire. We’ve seen this play out before. The Gulf War, the Iraq War—same pattern every time. Initial shrug, then oil spikes, then inflation creeps in, margins get squeezed, and suddenly everyone rediscovers the concept of “second-order effects.” Even smaller shocks like the 2019 Abqaiq–Khurais attack were enough to remind the world how fragile energy supply really is. And now we’re playing games around the Strait of Hormuz—that tiny little artery carrying roughly 20% of global oil. Disrupt that, and it’s not just crude prices. It’s shipping delays, insurance spikes, fertilizer costs, airline margins, food inflation

🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 💰💰. I like this allocation. 👊

Buffett’s $380B Warning: Why the Oracle is Skipping the "Dip" The recent 6–10% pullback in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had retail traders screaming bloody murder—or rushing to blindly "buy the dip." But when asked about the market's turbulence, Warren Buffett brushed it off with three brutal words: "This is nothing." With Berkshire Hathaway sitting on a record-shattering $380B+ cash pile in 2026, the message is clear. The Oracle isn’t bottom-fishing for a quick bounce; he’s waiting for real blood in the streets. So, what does a "big decline" actually look like to smart money, and what does it mean for your portfolio? 1️⃣ Perspective from a $380B Cash Fortress Retail traders often panic over a 5% red week, but Buffett's historical frame of reference is entirely different. He reminded the mar