🌪️ QT Ends. Trump Picks New Fed Chair. 2026: Bull Market Revival or Policy-Driven Meltdown? This isn’t just another Fed headline — this is a macro earthquake. Prediction markets are exploding: • Hassett — 64% (from <40%!) • Waller — 12% • Warsh — 11% The market isn’t just guessing anymore. It’s pricing in a regime change — and regime changes don’t come quietly. Let’s break down the ultra-bullish path, the nightmare bearish path, and the realistic middle road. Strap in. 🚀 ⸻ 🟢 THE ULTRA-BULLISH MEGA-RALLY SCENARIO (The “Liquidity Renaissance”) If Trump appoints a growth-first Chair — which Hassett fits perfectly — the entire macro landscape could reset. 🔥 1. Faster Rate Cuts Than Wall Street’s Current Models Markets still think cuts will come “only when inflation hits 2%.” A Trump-aligned

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ I’m positioning into a volatility expansion as Trump’s Air Force One confirmation on 30Nov25, the pre-Christmas reveal window, and Powell’s 15May26 exit compress the transition timeline and force the market to reprice QT unwind risk, rate floors, and political influence on the 2026 curve in real time. Markets are recalibrating because the handover period accelerates expectations around cuts, liquidity shifts, and cross-asset flow structures. Shutdown-driven data fog has amplified the dovish tilt. Hassett’s Surge and the Political Pressure Dynamic Trump confirmed

Last Week's Recap1. US Market -Best Thanksgiving week since 2008Great Thanksgiving week:US stocks rallied across the board last week, with all three major indices up over 3%. The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ surged 4.91% for the week, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained nearly 4%, marking its best Thanksgiving week since 2008. The S& 500 has risen for seven straight months, its best streak in over seven years. JPMorgan is bullish, forecasting a 20% rise by 2027.December rate cut odds rose: CME FedWatch Tool shows an 87.4% probability. Trump said Sunday he has chosen the next Fed chair and will announce soon.Easing policy tailwind: Data supports a soft landing, but with fewer official releases recently, the econo

Trump's dropping bombshells like holiday fireworks – teasing his Fed Chair pick on Sunday with a "soon" announcement that could flip the script on 2026's rate path, just as QT bows out today, flooding markets with $1 trillion in fresh liquidity and yanking December cut odds to a sizzling 87%. Prediction markets are in a frenzy: Kevin Hassett's odds skyrocketed to 55% on Kalshi after his "happy to serve" nod, edging out Christopher Waller's 22% and Kevin Warsh's 12% in a race that's got Wall Street sweating over dovish dreams versus hawkish hurdles. With Powell's term ticking down to May 2026, this swap isn't just theater – it's a potential powder keg for 100bps+ cuts or a tariff-fueled stall that keeps yields glued at 4%. As S&P futures nudge 0.1% green amid easing whispers, we're gut-

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ The Federal Reserve is once again at the center of political and market attention. As quantitative tightening (QT) approaches its scheduled conclusion and former President Donald Trump signals that his choice for the next Fed Chair will be announced soon, investors face a rare moment of simultaneous monetary and political uncertainty. Prediction markets have swiftly recalibrated expectations: Kevin Hassett now carries a roughly 64% probability of receiving the nomination, Fed Governor Christopher Waller sits at 12%, and former Governor Kevin Warsh holds 11%, with the rest distributed among lower-visibility candidates. For markets, the implications extend far beyond the identity of the central bank’s next leader. The end of QT a

Markets are buzzing like a hive on fire – Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, fresh off the rumor mill as a top pick for the next Fed Chair under Trump, just threw his weight behind a December rate cut, calling the labor market "weak enough" for a quarter-point trim at the December 9-10 meeting. But here's the twist: Once that January 2026 data deluge hits (jobs reports, inflation reads delayed by the shutdown chaos), the Fed flips to "meeting-by-meeting" mode, ditching the predictable path. Gold's already perked up, clawing back to $4,141 an ounce on November 25 after dipping below $4,000 last week amid dollar jitters. If the cut lands, could this spark a breakout to $4,200 – or even higher? Long-term, is the yellow metal primed for glory, or will a stubborn U.S. dollar keep slam

Honestly, I think the end of QT combined with a potential new Fed Chair is a big wildcard for 2026. If Trump chooses someone more growth-focused or more aligned with his economic agenda, the path toward rate cuts in 2026 could open up faster than markets currently expect. But it really depends on whether the new Chair prioritizes inflation stability or political alignment. Based on the current prediction odds, Hassett being the frontrunner at around 60%+ is interesting. His policy stance has historically leaned more toward pro-growth and lower rates, which could make him more receptive to cutting earlier if the economy slows. That said, markets sometimes overestimate how much influence a president actually has on the day-to-day decision-making at the Fed — credibility still matters. For me

🚨🚨🚨📈 Market Analysis Summary: December 1, 2025 Today's market activity is primarily influenced by global monetary policy expectations and mixed performance across different regions. Key Highlights:  * Global Stock Performance Mixed:    * Asia: Markets were mixed. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell significantly (down nearly 2%) after the Bank of Japan Governor hinted at a possible interest rate hike. Conversely, Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed (up around 0.7%), supported by optimism over potential U.S. rate cuts.    * US Futures & Europe: U.S. stock futures and major European indices (DAX, FTSE 100) are slipping, suggesting a cautious start to the week.    * India: Indian indices (Nifty50 and BSE Sensex) opened higher on strong domestic fundamentals and positive G

I think it's bullish