I. CFTC Positioning Data: Understanding the “Language of Smart Money” Many people focus only on prices, but what truly drives prices is where the money is positioned. The Commitments of Traders (COT) report released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) translates this “language of money” into indicators that ordinary investors can understand. The “soul” of this report lies in two dimensions: who is holding positions, and whether they are long or short. CFTC positioning data classifies participants into three major categories: commercial positions (hedgers), non-commercial positions (speculators/funds), and non-reportable positions (retail traders). Among these, the most critical are non-commercial positions—funds, hedge funds, and large institutions whose objective is pr

The two-week negotiation window between the United States and Iran has come to an end. Over the past two weeks, market expectations were highly optimistic—U.S. equities surged, and oil prices declined. Unfortunately, as the deadline arrived, weekend news suggested that the two sides failed to reach an agreement. The final outcome will only be confirmed once a formal agreement is signed. In any case, the key signal remains unchanged: when the strait is fully reopened, that will mark the true end of this event. All other news is merely noise. There were earlier rumors suggesting that the U.S. proposed the two-week negotiation period as a cover to deploy additional military forces. If this proves true, further escalation of conflict cannot be ruled out. Investors should remain vigilant. I. Ca

$GE Aerospace(GE)$ is scheduled to report its Q1 2026 earnings on Tuesday, April 21, 2026, at 7:30 AM ET. As a newly minted pure-play aerospace leader following the GE Vernova spin-off, this report is a major litmus test for its ability to maintain high margins and convert its massive backlog into realized profit. Earnings Estimates & Context Consensus EPS: $1.81 (Range: $1.59–$1.81 depending on the analyst pool). Consensus Revenue: ~$11.61 billion (Up ~18% year-over-year). FY 2026 Guidance: The company previously set a target of $7.10 – $7.40 EPS. Watch for any tightening or lifting of this range. History: GE has a strong history of "beats," with an average earnings surprise of around 14% over the last four quarters. GE Aerospace’s Q4 2025 earn

Hopefully a permanent resolution can be reached in the near future. This needs to end.

On the week of April 7, the latest Commitment of Traders (CFTC) data release from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission immediately ignited market discussions: stock index futures saw intensified multi-force tug-of-war, crude oil longs staged a strong comeback, while precious metals like gold saw funds quietly exiting. This isn't random volatility—it's a clear signal of big money "rotating tracks"! Want to know who's adding positions and who's retreating? Read this article, and you'll easily grasp the market's next rhythm. Commitment of Traders Report Basics: The "Three Keys" to CFTC Data The CFTC Commitment of Traders report is like the market's "sentiment barometer," released every Friday with Tuesday's futures position data to reveal true capital intentions. No worries

This session focused on how the U.S.-Iran situation may affect oil, gold, U.S. stocks, the dollar, Treasuries, and crypto under different scenarios, with special attention to the key one- to three-week window ahead.Guest Speaker: Cheng Jun (CME Guest Lecturer with more than 10 years of margin trading experience, specializing in gold and FX trading through a combination of macro analysis and Demark technical analysis)Course Link1. The current market narrative is still primarily driven by changes in the geopolitical situationMost assets are still following the same pattern: they come under pressure when tensions rise and rebound whe

Since April 9, developments between the United States and Iran have broadly followed a pattern of “ceasefire implementation and advancing negotiations, but fragile execution and unresolved disagreements.” After the two-week temporary ceasefire entered the implementation stage, the Strait of Hormuz nominally resumed limited shipping, yet the actual volume of vessel traffic remained extremely low, suggesting that maritime tensions had not genuinely eased. Then, on April 10 and 11, the United States and Iran held high-level talks in Islamabad, discussing sanctions arrangements, ceasefire boundaries, and navigation through the strait. Despite the lengthy discussions, however, no substantive breakthrough was achieved. From April 13 to 15, there were brief expectations that the ceasefire might b

Recently, the core variable in crude oil trading has still been the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Based on the information currently available, a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran has already been put on the agenda. That, in itself, is a very important development. It suggests that the Strait of Hormuz crisis is moving away from a war-based resolution path and gradually shifting toward a negotiation-based one. In other words, the situation is easing rather than escalating. This shift matters because it directly changes the pricing logic of crude oil. If the market was previously trading on the assumption of escalating conflict, supply disruption, and uncontrolled risk, it is now beginning to price in easing tensions, advancing dialogue, and a dec

Against the backdrop of the macro environment, this class focuses on the correlations among major U.S. asset classes, with an emphasis on the trends of U.S. stock indices and precious metals (CME COMEX gold futures & options, silver futures & options). It also provides brief comments on the current rapidly changing geopolitical situation, highlighting the importance of identifying trading opportunities and risk control amid uncertainty. Course Link:

Just started so see how things go 

Hi the latest news The day after talks collapsed, Trump escalated hard. US Central Command announced a blockade of all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports, and Trump threatened to prevent ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz entirely. NBC News He also said the US military is looking at resuming limited strikes inside Iran. The Strait carries roughly 20% of the world's oil supply. Any serious disruption there hits energy prices, shipping costs, and global risk appetite all at once. We are not in full escalation yet — but the direction of travel is not comforting, and investors who are not paying attention are going to get caught off guard. Even as the situation escalated, stocks wavered and oil held relatively steady — which tells you something important. The market is alr

Chinese Automobile stocks rose in early trading on Monday (13 April), bucking the wider market trend after data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) showed that automobile exports surged 56.7% YoY in Q1. $NIO-SW(09866)$ led gains in the sector, rising 6.6% in morning trade on strong ES9 pre-orders. Amplifying the return, the NIO 5x Long DLC surged 33%. There is currently no Short DLC on NIO listed for trading. Other automobile-related counters similarly rose, with $BYD COMPANY(01211)$ up more than 5.6%, sending the BYD 5x Long DLC up about 28%, and the BYD 5x Short DLC declined by similar magnitude. $XPENG-W(09868)$ ,

May not be stabilize untill aggrement done between US and Iran.

May not be stabilize untill aggrement done between US and Iran

Last Week's Recap 1. U.S. Market Summary: Rally as Middle East tensions ease and oil plummets 13% Stock surge – Major U.S. indexes jumped 3–5% on easing Middle East tensions and a 13% weekly drop in oil prices. Two-week rebound – Nasdaq gained ~9%, S&P 500 ~7%, and Dow ~6%, erasing March losses. Inflation hot – CPI hit 3.3% YoY, well above the Fed’s 2% target. Oil plunges – Crude fell to ~$96/barrel (down 13% weekly) from a March 9 intraday peak near $119. Gold rallies – Prices rose for a second straight week to ~$4,800/oz, recovering March losses. GDP cut – Q4 growth revised down to 0.5% (from 0.7% in March and 1.4% initially). Sentiment drops – UMich consumer sentiment fell to 47.6 in April (from 53.3 in March). Earnings outlook – Q1 S&P 500 profit growth forecast lowered to 12.6

the best strategy is  1. short it when the price is extremely high 2. hold it, and unload it when the price sudden drop due to opposition to Trumps thought let plan. 3. Repeaf the above in reverse order