Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 08Jun2026)
Housing Market
Existing home sales data for May will be released, with forecasts pointing to an annualized rate of 4.08 million units. This will be an important indicator for the direction of the U.S. housing market.
Inflation Indicators
The main focus in the coming week will be the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May. Headline CPI is expected to rise 4.2% year over year, up from 3.8% in the previous month. Core CPI is also projected to increase, with a monthly gain of 0.5%, compared with 0.4% previously.
Another key release will be the Producer Price Index (PPI) for May. PPI measures inflation at the producer level and often provides an early signal of price pressures that may later be passed on to consumers. The forecast stands at 0.7%.
Labour Market
Initial jobless claims are expected to come in at 225,000, unchanged from the previous reading. This will provide another useful reference point for assessing labor market conditions.
Energy Demand
Crude oil inventory data will also be important to watch. Inventory changes help indicate how the market is assessing future consumption and demand. A drawdown in inventories would suggest expectations of stronger demand in the coming months.
Earnings Calendar (08Jun2026)
I am interested in the coming earnings announcement for Oracle and Adobe.
Let us look at Oracle - one of the key links in the AI ecosystem.
Oracle shares are up 22.78% from a year ago. Technical indicators currently suggest a strong buy, while analyst sentiment is also positive, with a consensus buy rating. The average price target is $251.20, implying potential upside of 17.58%.
Valuation
With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 37.8 and earnings per share (EPS) of $5.69, the stock appears relatively expensive on current earnings.
Financial Performance
Total annual revenue increased from $40.4 billion in 2021 to $57.3 billion in 2025. Gross profit also improved, rising from $32.6 billion to $40.4 billion over the same period. Net income, however, declined from $13.7 billion in 2021 to $12.4 billion in 2025.
Balance Sheet
Total assets increased from $131 billion in 2021 to $168 billion in 2025. Over the same period, total liabilities rose from $125 billion to $147 billion, while total equity increased from $5.9 billion to $20.9 billion. Shareholders’ equity also strengthened, rising from $84.2 billion to $108.9 billion by 2025.
Cash Flow
Cash flow from operations showed steady growth, increasing from $15.8 billion in 2021 to $20.8 billion in 2025. Cash flow from financing moved from a debt-repayment outflow of $10.3 billion in 2021 to an inflow of $1 billion in 2025.
News from Oracle Corp (Q1/2026) - from Gemini
Between January and March 2026, Oracle Corporation experienced a period of hyper-growth and aggressive structural transformation.
To meet surging artificial intelligence and cloud demand, Oracle launched a massive $50 billion financing blitz, successfully raising an initial $30 billion via oversubscribed bond and convertible stock offerings to scale its data center capacity.
This capital deployment matched blockbuster Q3 Fiscal 2026 financial results reported on March 10. Driven by AI workloads, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) revenue skyrocketed 84% to $4.9 billion, pushing total revenue to $17.2 billion. Crucially, its Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) backlog ballooned to an astronomical $553 billion.
Simultaneously, Oracle leveraged AI internally. Citing extreme efficiencies in AI-driven code generation, the company restructured its product development into agile teams. This shift culminated in late March with unannounced global layoffs, estimated by analysts to impact 20,000 to 30,000 positions, aggressively optimizing corporate margins.
Earnings
The forecast of EPS and Revenue is $1.95 and $19.10B, respectively.
Given the above, especially with the weight of increasing debt, I prefer to monitor this company. This could be one of the stars or one of the Achilles' heels.
Market Outlook of S&P500 (08Jun2026)
Technical Analysis Overview
MACD Indicator
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 has started a downtrend.
Chaikin Money Flow
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.19, indicating there is more buying momentum than selling pressure in the market.
Moving Averages
Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have begun to trend upwards, which indicates a bullish outlook in both the short and long term.
Exponential Moving Averages
The exponential moving average (EMA) lines are showing a bullish outlook, but with the coming convergence, there is a potential reversal.
Other Technical Analysis
Using “Daily” intervals, the technical indicators are showing a “Sell” rating. 8 indicators have a “Buy” rating and 12 indicators have a “Sell” rating.
CNN Fear & Greed Index
The market fell into the “Fear” zone with a score of 42.
Weekly Outlook
Based on the above, the S&P500 should be leaning bearish entering the new week.
News and my thoughts from the past week (08Jun2026)
India’s fertility rate has fallen below replacement for the first time in the country’s history, declining from a TFR of 2.3 to 1.9 in just a decade. Delhi’s fertility rate now sits at 1.2, lower than Finland’s. - AF Post
President Trump says the Trump Administration might buy equity stakes in US AI companies and that he will host a meeting with AI executives as soon as next week, per Reuters.
Iran announces it is ending all negotiations with the US and vows to "completely" block the Strait of Hormuz, per CNBC. Iran says it is ending negotiations due to repeated ceasefire violations, including Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Iran also threatens to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. - X user the Kobeissi Letter
My Investing Muse (08Jun2026)
Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies
US-based technology employers announced 38,242 job cuts in May, the highest monthly total since August 2024, according to Challenger Gray data. Year-to-date, tech sector job cuts rose +66% YoY, to 123,653, the highest among all sectors, and 3x larger than transportation, the next closest sector. AI was the most cited reason for job cuts for the 3rd consecutive month, with 38,579 cuts attributed to AI in May alone, the highest since Challenger began tracking in 2023. This accounts for 40% of all layoffs announced last month, up from just 7% in January. Year-to-date, AI has been cited in 87,714 job cuts in 2026, or 22% of the total, already surpassing the 54,836 recorded in all of 2025 and 12,742 in 2024. AI continues to reshape the labour market. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
Maeve Aerospace, a Netherlands-based hybrid-electric airplane developer that was initially treated like a dream child with the potential to take aviation into a new and more sustainable direction, was declared insolvent by a Dutch court at the start of June after failing to meet a €20 million funding round. On June 3, Bournemouth-based cargo carrier European Cargo Limited was also declared insolvent by a British court. - The Street
My thoughts on …
Geopolitical and Supply Risks
The Gulf conflict remains under a fragile ceasefire—supported more by words than by actions. Tensions appear likely to persist, and with oil prices moving toward $100 a barrel, the risk of renewed inflationary pressure is rising. The region is a key exporter of crude oil, LNG, helium, fertilizers, and other critical commodities, so any disruption could affect both supply and global supply chains.
Market Reaction and Key Risks
Last Friday’s selloff was one of the sharpest on record, and APAC markets could face similar pressure. While some investors are attributing the move to weakness in hyperscalers and the broader AI trade, others are watching the bond market closely. Another important factor is the yen carry trade, where investment returns may no longer justify the cost of borrowed funding.
Inflation and Policy Outlook
Still, a single day does not establish a trend. If the weakness extends over several sessions, market volatility could increase further. Upcoming CPI data will be especially important, as inflation may be moving back toward levels that could prompt the Federal Reserve to consider further rate hikes rather than cuts. Although the Fed leadership has taken a hawkish tone, a broader consensus among policymakers would still be needed to shift the rate outlook. With both CPI and PPI forecasts pointing to firmer inflation, markets may remain volatile in the weeks ahead.
Financial Strategy and Outlook
Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.
As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.
Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.
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