Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 23Mar2026)
The upcoming week will feature several important economic reports and indicators for the United States, providing insight into productivity, demand, inflation, employment, and consumer sentiment.
Productivity Report
U.S. productivity figures for the fourth quarter are scheduled for release, with forecasts estimating a 1.8% increase. This projection marks a decline from the previous quarter’s growth of 2.8%. It is important to closely monitor this trend, especially in light of recent retrenchments, which could influence overall economic performance.
PMI Releases
The SMP flash U.S. services PMI for March, along with the SMP flash U.S. manufacturing PMI, will be published in the upcoming weeks. These reports serve as critical references for assessing demand within both the services and manufacturing sectors of the U.S. economy.
Import Price Index
The import price index for February is estimated at 0.7%, representing a significant jump from the prior figure of 0.2%. If confirmed, this increase could suggest inflationary pressures within the economy.
Initial Jobless Claims
Initial jobless claims are expected to come in at 210,000, up from 205,000 in the previous report. This upward trend may indicate increasing joblessness, a metric the Federal Reserve will carefully consider as it formulates its upcoming interest rate decision.
Federal Reserve Speeches
Several Federal Reserve governors are scheduled to speak in the coming week. These speeches may introduce additional volatility to the financial markets as investors interpret their remarks.
Consumer Sentiment
The final consumer sentiment reading for March is anticipated to be 54.0. This metric will serve as a valuable reference for evaluating consumer spending patterns during the month.
Here is wishing all my Muslim friends, partners and associates “Eid Mubarak”. I am thankful for the kindness that you have shown.
Earnings Calendar (23Mar2026)
I am interested in examining the forthcoming earnings reports for the following companies: Beyond Meat, Carnival, and AAR. Let us review the scheduled earnings release for Carnival.
Earnings Overview and Stock Performance
The earnings per share (EPS) for the stock is currently $2.0193, and it has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.45, which appears to be relatively affordable when compared to industry averages.
From a technical analysis standpoint, there is a “Strong Sell” recommendation for the stock. However, according to analyst sentiment, there is a recommendation to “buy”, with a price target set at $37.35. This suggests a potential upside of 54.86% from the current price levels.
Additionally, the stock price has experienced an increase of 15.19% over the past year, demonstrating positive momentum in its recent performance.
Financial Performance Analysis
Revenue Growth
Carnival Corporation & plc experienced remarkable revenue growth over the past several years. The company’s annual revenue surged from $1.9 billion in 2021 to $26.6 billion in 2025. This exceptional increase was largely influenced by the impact of COVID-19, which initially constrained business operations. Despite these challenges, the business demonstrated strong recovery and consistent growth, especially between 2023 and 2025.
Gross Profit Recovery
In 2021, Carnival Corporation & plc reported a gross profit loss of $809 million, reflecting the difficulties faced during the pandemic. By 2025, the company had managed to turn around its performance, recording a gross profit of $14.7 billion. This recovery highlights the company’s resilience and ability to adapt to challenging circumstances.
Operating Income Improvement
The company’s operating income also showed significant improvement. Starting with a substantial loss of $6.2 billion in 2021, Carnival Corporation & plc increased its operating income to $4.35 billion by 2025. This turnaround is particularly noteworthy, given the extraordinary challenges brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic beginning in 2020.
Balance Sheet Trends
Carnival Corporation & plc has made progress in reducing its total liabilities. These liabilities decreased from $41.2 billion in 2021 to $39.4 billion in 2025. A similar trend is observed with total assets, which started at $53.3 billion in 2021 and declined to $51.6 billion by 2025. This reduction in both assets and liabilities suggests a focused effort to stabilise the company’s financial position following the disruptions of the previous years.
News (Compiled by Gemini)
Over the last three months, Carnival Corporation has navigated a complex mix of structural evolution and operational headwinds.
The company announced a significant unification of its dual-listed structure, moving to a single entity (Carnival Corporation Ltd.) domiciled in Bermuda. While 2025 closed with record revenues of $26.6 billion, the first quarter of 2026 has been volatile. A sharp year-to-date share price decline was exacerbated by rising oil prices; notably, Carnival remains the only major cruise line that does not hedge fuel costs.
Operationally, security concerns forced the suspension of calls to Puerto Vallarta, affecting over 15,000 passengers. Furthermore, the company faces a labor scandal in Australia involving allegations of extreme underpayment and poor living conditions on its vessels. Despite these challenges, analysts at Morgan Stanley recently upgraded the stock to “Overweight,” citing a favourable long-term risk-reward profile as the company reinstates its dividend.
Earnings Forecast
The upcoming earnings projection for Carnival Corporation & plc indicates an expected earnings per share (EPS) of $0.182, accompanied by a revenue forecast of $6.13 billion. Both EPS and revenue are expected to fall, compared to previous results.
While the business appears to be profitable and growing, the recent energy crisis is likely to affect its business. I prefer to monitor the company for now.
Market Outlook of S&P500 (23Mar2026)
Technical Analysis Overview
MACD Indicator
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is currently showing a clear downtrend. This momentum indicator, which tracks the relationship between two moving averages of a security’s price, signals that bearish sentiment is prevailing in the market for the time being.
Chaikin Money Flow
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.01, indicating there is more buying momentum than selling pressure in the market. However, it was a clear downtrend for the last few days and should be entering selling territory soon.
Moving Averages
Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has moved well below the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bearish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, the MA50 line has begun to slope downward for the first time in recent months, raising the possibility of a “death cross” forming—a bearish technical pattern where the MA50 crosses below the MA200. This development reinforces the view of a weakening short-term outlook.
Exponential Moving Averages
Further confirmation of bearish sentiment comes from the exponential moving average (EMA) lines, which are also trending downward. This reinforces the expectation of continued pressure on the index in the near future.
Other Technical Analysis
At present, none of the technical indicators is issuing a “Buy” rating. In fact, all 20 daily indicators unanimously signal a “Sell” rating. This represents an exceptionally strong bearish trend, marking the first instance of such a unified negative outlook observed in recent analysis.
CNN Fear & Greed Index
The CNN Fear & Greed Index has recently entered the extreme fear zone, registering a score of 15. This development accurately mirrors the prevailing market sentiment, highlighting heightened investor anxiety and apprehension.
Weekly Outlook
Considering the above, the overall technical picture points towards a bearish outlook for the S&P 500 in the coming week.
News and my thoughts from the past week (23Mar2026)
Is the housing market going through a correction?
Roughly 111 million people — half of all Americans with a credit card and over 40% of adults — are unable to pay off their credit card bills each month, per MorePerfectUnion
"California housing crash fears as buying rates plummet below Great Recession level," per NYP
Who would have expected the global economy to be affected by a narrow strait?
Germany's largest defense company, Rheinmetall's CEO on CNBC today: "If the war lasts another month, we will have nearly no missiles available." All of them. European. American. Middle Eastern. Iran has been rationing its launches for weeks. The West has been burning through interceptors at full speed. The attrition war has a winner emerging. It isn't who the briefings said it would be. - CNBC
Meta is shutting down its Metaverse, a $80 Billion collapse - Rand Group
Dubai Real Estate
Australian Energy Minister: We only have 18 days of gasoline, 16 days of diesel, and 14 days of aviation fuel - MacroEdge
Private Credit & Private Equity - What’s going on?
Banks have ~$300B+ in loans to private credit funds (Moody's, mid-2025 data), with JPM marking some down amid software strains. Insurers average 35% US portfolio exposure for yields (IMF/Moody's). Interconnections raise contagion risk if defaults spike (UBS downside: 15% on AI/software hits), but it's not systemic meltdown—regulators watching, many exposures managed. Gulf SWFs hit first per that article; banks/insurers next in line but buffered. US banks' loans to private credit funds hit ~$300B as of June 2025 (Moody's/Fed data), plus $285B to PE & $340B unused commitments—part of $1.2T+ to non-bank lenders. PC "lends back" via synthetic risk transfers, partnerships (e.g. Citi-Apollo), & buying bank debt/securitizations. Unknown: Granular counterparty details, off-balance-sheet leverage, exact risk concentrations, & valuations under stress. Private markets' opacity (infrequent marks, complex structures) leaves gaps—FSOC/IMF/BIS highlight this as a monitoring challenge, not full visibility. Regulators track aggregates but can't see everything until tested. - Grok
Apollo down 41%. Blackstone down 46%. Blue Owl down 66%. $265 billion in PE market cap erased. Private credit was the "safe" alternative. Until it wasn't. Private credit default rate just hit 9.2%. That's higher than 2008 bank loan peaks. $1.8 trillion in assets, $100B in secondary liquidity. 18:1 mismatch. When exits close, panic starts.- X user Michael A. Gayed CFA
Private Credit - Rising Defaults
Let us monitor closely. What is going on with Private Credit and Private Equity markets? Are we expecting more frozen withdrawals and defaults?
My Investing Muse
Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies
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FedEx Corp. plans to close nine shipping facilities in New York and one in Pennsylvania as its multi-year effort to integrate legacy express & ground delivery operations into one unified surface network enters its final phase. - FreightWave
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HSBC is planning to cut up to 20,000 jobs globally due to AI. (To be confirmed
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Spent three hours on back-to-back calls with CTOs from 30 companies across cloud infrastructure, fintech, and enterprise software. The consensus was chilling: 70% headcount reduction by the end of Q3 2026. Not layoffs. "Right-sizing for the AI-native era" - X user Tech Layoff Tracker
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BlackRock just spent $100 million training plumbers and electricians. The initiative is called Future Builders. The goal is to get 50,000 Americans through skilled trades programs over five years, including electricians, HVAC techs, ironworkers, and pipefitters. There is a real crisis behind it. - X user Stock Market News
Dell just confirmed 11,000 jobs cut in their annual filing.
Even though there are seemingly more layoffs. AI is expected to create more work. Is it possible for the unemployed to learn and pivot accordingly?
War rages on in the Middle East
The war in the Middle East has now entered its third week, with no clear resolution in sight. The ramifications of this conflict are extending far beyond the energy sector, impacting not just oil and gas but a range of other critical resources. Recent developments have highlighted the region’s importance as a major producer of helium—a commodity essential for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in healthcare and for the semiconductor industry. A disruption in helium supply is expected to result in a global shortage, affecting the production of chips vital for data centres and the rapidly growing demands of the technology and artificial intelligence sectors. While foregoing helium balloons at events may seem trivial, the inability to manufacture essential chips presents a much more significant challenge.
My Final Thoughts
Fewer fertilisers mean fewer harvests. With the war, supply chain and fuel costs are expected to increase. Poorer countries would be outbid. The poorer countries would not be able to outbid the richer ones for food. For some, it is another meal, and for the rest, it is about survival. Some famines are caused by nature, but some are induced by men. All can be avoided if we can redistribute the resources. Death by hunger is a slow torture. May the humanity within us reach out for the greater good. Everyone deserves to live with dignity, regardless of race, language and religion.
Additionally, the region plays a key role as an exporter of fertilisers. The conflict-induced shortages have already driven fertiliser prices higher, and it is increasingly likely that the critical March–April sowing window will be missed. As a result, food supply challenges are expected to emerge by year’s end. For those living in developed countries, access to limited food supplies may be less of an immediate concern, but the situation threatens to worsen famine conditions in several countries, as highlighted in recent United Nations reports.
It can take weeks to reroute supply chains. The bottlenecks are not just in the supply but also in the supply chain, delays in lead time. Will countries start to ration their energy soon?
Financial Strategy and Outlook
Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.
As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.
Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.
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