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11-09 17:22
CRWV's Credit Alarm: Buy the AI Dip Now, or Wait for Earnings and Clearer Financing?
1️⃣ The Market's Question: Can AI Stocks Keep Rebounding as Financing Gets Harder? In its November 6 market report, Reuters noted that CRWV's five-year credit default swap spread had risen above 1,000 basis points, a record high. At the same time, the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ was rebounding nearly 2% during Friday's session. The policy shift toward Democratic proposals to pause data-center construction was an immediate catalyst for the recent sharp selloff in the Nasdaq 100. The deeper issue being repriced, however, is the weakening assumption that AI capital spending can expand regardless of cost. A CDS spread measures the price investors pay for credit protection. It signals perceived credit risk, rather than an actual default, and canno
TOP苏36: B. Wait for this week's earnings. I would not confuse a valuation reset with a financing reset. AI demand may remain powerful, but the market is asking who can fund infrastructure long enough to monetize it. Reuters reported on November 9 that lenders are becoming more cautious toward AI borrowing, while Nebius shelved a planned high-yield bond offering. That is a stronger warning than a one-day Nasdaq rebound. CRWV’s $104 billion backlog looks impressive, but backlog is not cash. Delivery schedules, customer concentration, interest expense and construction costs determine how much value shareholders receive. I want revenue conversion to improve without capex and financing needs outrunning operating cash flow. For NBIS, I would watch liquidity, funding alternatives and whether expansion plans are being adjusted. I’m not abandoning AI; I’m separating demand winners from financing-dependent builders. I would add only when earnings show growth becoming self-funding, not merely bigger.
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11-09 17:08
🐯 Berkshire Hathaway Just Bought Back $9.6 Billion of Its Own Stock. Is It a Sign of Confidence?
Profits are under pressure, but Berkshire is buying back its own shares at a faster pace. What does Warren Buffett's successor see that the market might be missing? 💰 A $9.6 Billion Bet on Itself $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ has made a major move: the company reportedly repurchased $9.6 billion worth of its own shares in Q3 2026, more than double the approximately $4.5 billion spent in Q2. And the buying didn't stop there. Berkshire reportedly repurchased another $2 billion in October. That's a significant shift in pace, especially for a company known for being selective about when it spends its enormous cash reserves. 📈 How Has BRK.B Been Performing? Interestingly, Berkshire's aggressive buyback activity comes alongside positive m
TOPI would choose a, but only when Berkshire shares trade below their intrinsic value. The interesting part isn't the $9.6 billion buyback. It's the opportunity cost behind it. With operating earnings falling 5.8%, Berkshire faces business-cycle pressures. Yet Greg Abel appears to believe buying Berkshire shares offers better risk-adjusted returns than investing in other businesses at current valuations. That's a signal of management's confidence, not proof that the stock is undervalued. Berkshire's enormous cash reserves also provide flexibility to seize opportunities during market downturns. My view: buybacks make sense, but discipline matters more than speed. Abel's real test isn't how much cash he spends, but how intelligently he allocates every dollar. @WallStreet_Tiger [胜利]
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11-09 16:58
[Events] CPI & PPI This Week: Nasdaq Rally or Selloff?
Wall Street is coming off a turbulent week, and another major test lies ahead. Last week, investors digested two significant developments: the U.S. midterm elections and a stronger-than-expected jobs report. Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, while the U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. The stronger jobs data highlighted the resilience of the U.S. economy, but it also raised questions about the Federal Reserve's next move. If the labor market remains strong, will the Fed have less reason to cut interest rates? Meanwhile, tech stocks remained under pressure. Nvidia, AMD and Meta were caught in the selloff as investors grew increasingly concerned about stretched valuations, rising AI spending and whether those investments
TOPMy Pick: C. Trade Sideways (-1% to +1%) I expect the Nasdaq to trade sideways this week, with volatility remaining elevated. The market faces a tug-of-war between economic resilience and inflation risks. Stronger employment suggests the US economy remains healthy, but it could also give the Fed less reason to cut rates, keeping pressure on growth stocks. Tuesday's CPI report will be the biggest catalyst. Cooling inflation could push Treasury yields lower and support tech stocks. However, hotter inflation could further pressure elevated AI valuations. More importantly, investors need evidence that massive AI capital expenditure can translate into sustainable earnings and free cash flow. My strategy is to avoid chasing a relief rally and watch Treasury yields and semiconductor performance. Prediction: C — Sideways (-1% to +1%).Caution will likely dominate until inflation provides a clearer signal. @TigerEvents [正经]
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11-04
AMD +8% Can the AI Rally Last
Hey Tigers! 🐯 AMD just gave AI bulls another reason to stay interested. Its earnings update sent shares up 8% in extended trading on November 3. But the next trade depends on whether faster sales can translate into sustained profits. My take: AMD has strengthened the case for AI infrastructure demand. The stock now needs execution to keep pace with expectations. NVIDIA and Broadcom remain part of that debate, but their own earnings will decide how much of AMD’s momentum belongs to them. 1 | Two Rallies and Two Different Clocks During November 3 regular trading, NVIDIA gained 2.3% and Broadcom rose 3.1%. Microsoft, Amazon and Meta each advanced more than 2%. Those moves preceded AMD’s after-close results. They cannot be presented as a reaction to the earnings release. AMD’s 8% move belongs
TOPAMD's real opportunity may not be to dethrone NVIDIA, but to make the AI market less dependent on a single supplier. Data-center revenue nearly doubled to $8.5 billion, while Q4 revenue guidance of $17 billion signals accelerating demand. Non-GAAP operating income also rose 75%, suggesting AMD is converting growth into earnings. However, the 55% Q4 gross-margin outlook, below Q3's 56%, deserves attention. Revenue growth means little if rising costs weaken profitability. Supply constraints also remain a risk. I'm constructive on AMD's business, but wouldn't chase an 8% after-hours jump. The real test is whether Helios deployments translate into repeat orders, stronger margins and cash generation. AMD doesn't need to replace NVIDIA to win. Capturing a meaningful share of the AI market could already create substantial shareholder value. @WallStreet_Tiger [思考]
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11-09 14:43
Musk Put $500 Billion on SpaceX by 2027 — Two Dates Have to Land First
Elon Musk told the Baron Investment Conference in New York on November 6 that SpaceX's annualized recurring revenue will "very likely" clear $500 billion by December 2027 — "not a promise, just my best guess," and $1 trillion is not impossible [S: Cailian Press, 7 Nov 2026]. The market's first reaction came Friday: $SpaceX(SPCX)$ closed at $134.27, up 8.62%, still below the $135 IPO price from its June listing — the largest IPO in history at roughly $86 billion raised [S: Cailian Press, 7 Nov 2026]. The gap is enormous: Q3 2026 revenue of roughly $14.6 billion annualizes to only about $58.4 billion [S: Tencent News / Fusion Fund interview, 9 Nov 2026]. This piece answers one question: what has to actually happen before December 11 for that gap to
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11-09 14:51
🎁Weekly EPS Growth & Dividend Leaders: CSCO, AMAT, MUFG, PBR, MFG and more
😀Hi Tigers, As the Q3 earnings season unfolds, we’re taking a closer look at potential outperformers from two key angles: EPS expectations and dividend performance. In the first part, we highlight the top 20 stocks by market capitalization with stronger EPS estimates ahead of their earnings, scheduled between November 9 and November 13. 🎁Weekly Higher EPS Estimates: CSCO, AMAT, MUFG, PBR, MFG & More 1. Why EPS Matters? Earnings per share(EPS) refer to the income per share brought to investors/shareholders in the open market. EPS is calculated as a company's profit divided by the outstanding shares of its common stock. The resulting number serves as an indicator of a company's profitability. Investors like companies with high profitability, and the market always rewards those earnings r
TOPI would putAMAT and URIat the top of my watchlist, but for very different reasons. For earnings growth, $Applied Materials (AMAT)$ stands out. Analysts expect Q4 EPS of $4.06, compared with $2.17 a year ago, representing approximately 87% YoY growth. This reflects strong demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment. However, I would pay close attention to forward guidance and order momentum rather than simply celebrating an EPS beat. For dividends, my pick is $United Rentals (URI)$. Its upcoming November 10 ex-dividend date offers $1.97 per share. More importantly, its payout ratio is only around 17.3%, suggesting room for dividend sustainability. Its average analyst price target is approximately $1,293, implying 22.5% upside from its November 6 closing price. My strategy:Prioritize earnings quality for capital appreciation and dividend sustainability for income. Chasing ex-dividend dates alone is rarely a winning investment strategy. @TigerObserver [贱笑]
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11-09 14:55
Weekly | The Mag 7 Crown Slips: Earnings Edge Below the S&P 493 for the First Time Since 2022
Last Week' Recap 1.Market Digest: NASDAQ Enters Correction, Mag 7 Loses Crown, Jobs Roar Back, Yields Retreat (Week Ended November 6, 2026) Zigzag market — A one-sided midterm election outcome, fresh AI concerns, and a strong jobs report fueled volatility. Stocks rallied Wednesday, tumbled Thursday, partially recovered Friday. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ -3.4%, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ -2.7%, $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ -0.9%. NASDAQ correction — Thursday's 5.5% drop was the biggest daily decline in 19 months, sending the index into correction territory (more than 10% below its October 6 record). The Magnificent Seven lost more than $1 trillion in market cap on Thursday alone. Jobs comeba
TOPThe Great Market Rotation: AI Hype Meets Earnings Reality Last week exposed a growing divide: strong economic data no longer guarantees a stock market rally. US payrolls surged by 165,000, while unemployment eased to 4.1%. Yet the Nasdaq entered correction territory, reflecting growing concerns over valuations, AI capital expenditure, and profitability. Meanwhile, Hong Kong technology stocks surged 8.61%, while Singapore's STI fell 3.67%, highlighting diverging regional sentiment. This week's CPI, PPI, and earnings from AMAT, CRWV, NBIS, and RKLB will offer important clues. My view: the next market leaders won't necessarily be those spending the most on AI, but those converting investment into sustainable revenue, free cash flow, and earnings growth. Cash flow matters more than promises. Selective buying beats blindly chasing the dip. @TigerObserver [捂嘴]
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11-09 14:56
CoreWeave Has $104B Backlog. Nebius Revenue Grew 454%. So Why Is Wall Street Selling Both? The AI Bubble's Next Big Test.
$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ The AI infrastructure trade is under siege. CoreWeave (CRWV) closed Friday at: $46.40. Nebius (NBIS): $129.49. Both rebounded on November 6. But don't let one green day distract us from the bigger picture. In just one month, investors have wiped enormous value off these AI infrastructure companies. And yet their latest reported demand numbers are extraordinary. CoreWeave's revenue backlog: $104 BILLION. Nebius's Q2 revenue growth: +454% YoY. So what's going on? I think Wall Street has moved beyond asking: IS AI DEMAND REAL? The new question is: CAN AI DEMAND TURN INTO PROFITS BEFORE CAPITAL COSTS OVERWHELM SHAREHOLDERS? And this week's earnings could giv
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11-09 15:09
Nebius Rebounded 7.6%. But $5 Billion of Signed Power Isn't $5 Billion of Revenue. I Think Thursday's Earnings Will Expose the Real AI Winners.
$NEBIUS(NBIS)$ Nebius shareholders have had a frightening week. November 5: NBIS -14.94%. November 6: +7.58%. Closing at: $129.49. A relief rally? Perhaps. But here's what I find fascinating. Nebius reported Q2 revenue growth of: 454% YoY. It has a Meta agreement worth up to: $27 BILLION. And management expects to reach: 5 GW OF CONTRACTED POWER by year-end. So why is Wall Street still nervous? Because there is one important distinction. SIGNED CAPACITY IS NOT REVENUE. And revenue is not the same as free cash flow. I think Thursday's earnings could tell us whether NBIS is becoming a sustainable AI infrastructure leader or simply an exceptionally expensive construction project. 🔥 THE $5.66 BILLION CONTRADICTION Let's look at Nebius's last re
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11-09 15:14
A Tech Rebound Still Needs Earnings to Catch Up
Technology shares rebounded without recovering their losses The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ rose 1.40 per cent last Friday, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained 0.31 per cent. AI hardware shares recovered from the previous session's sharp decline, but only part of the loss was reversed. The rebound alone does not establish that concerns about data-centre approvals, capital spending and financing costs have disappeared. US payrolls increased by 165,000 in October, above earlier expectations of roughly 60,000, while unemployment was 4.1 per cent. Resilient employment can ease recession concerns without providing a reason for interest rates to fall quickly. A lasting technology recovery
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11-09 15:10
V&MA Prices Upgraded, Adobe Cut: Is Wall Street Buying the AI Dip?
Hey Tigers! 🐯 One AI supplier gets a fresh Buy. A creative-software leader gets a Sell. And a chip designer keeps its bullish rating—even as its price target falls. Last week’s analyst calls highlight a growing divide: which companies can turn the AI opportunity into earnings that justify their valuations? Here are the selected upgrades, downgrades and target changes worth watching—and what could move these stocks next. 1 | Upgrade Group: $SiTime Corp(SITM)$ Gets a Buy; $Twilio(TWLO)$ Gets Breathing Room $SiTime Corp(SITM)$: A Lower Entry Price Strengthens the Case On November 6, 2026, Seaport analyst Jay Goldberg u
TOPMy vote is C — Mrs. The biggest question is whether Marvell can turn aggressive AI expansion into shareholder value. The Lumentum acquisition makes strategic sense. AI data centers increasingly need high-speed optical connectivity, and combining electrical and optical solutions could strengthen Marvell's competitive position. However, strategic fit does not guarantee a good deal. The 4.5-for-1 stock exchange, shareholder dilution and integration risks deserve attention. I would focus on three metrics: AI connectivity revenue growth, EPS accretion and free cash flow. The promised $1 billion in annual synergies sounds attractive, but investors need measurable results, not ambitious presentations. My view: MRVL could become a stronger AI infrastructure player, but the real test is whether this deal creates more value per share, not just a bigger company. @TigerPicks [得意]
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11-09 15:17
Why Did SReits Go Up Recently While Singapore Banks Dip?
🌟🌟🌟The stock market constantly moves money from one sector to another. Recently Singapore's Big 3 local banks DBS, OCBC and UOB saw their share prices dip. This happened because investors were worried about slower global growth and changing trade rules, which might cool down bank profits. At the same time, investors moved their money into Singapore Real Estate Investment Trusts (SReits). Reits are companies that own properties like malls, offices, industrial buildings and even hospitals. For the past few years, high interest rates made borrowing expensive for REITs, which hurt their share prices. Now, interest rates are starting to flatten out or drop. Because lower interest rates mean smaller debt bills for landlords, investors are rushing back to REITs
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11-09 15:23
Jensen Huang's Affair Shakes Nvidia. Micron, Tesla and SpaceX Are at a Crossroads. My Four Stocks to Watch This Week.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Micron Technology(MU)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $SpaceX(SPCX)$ Wall Street is about to face a very unusual trading week. Just when investors thought the worst of the AI selloff might be behind us, Nvidia has another problem. And this time? IT ISN'T ABOUT AI DEMAND. It's about leadership. Nvidia closed Friday at: $186.64. But overnight trading indicated another decline of approximately: 4%. Meanwhile, Friday's recovery showed: MU: +5.12% TSLA: +4.23% SPCX: +8.62% So are we entering another round of AI selling? Or will investors separate the companies with real demand from
TOPTSLA feels cleaner here. Robotaxi only gets re-rated if autonomy progress starts showing up in usage and margin, not just the story
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279
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11-06
$TSM CALENDAR 261218/261120 PUT 460.0/PUT 460.0$ AI panic selling cause big loss, strike rolled to avoid being executed. believe market will back to normal soon. else will buy the stock with this premium price and wait the stock to rebound
TOPAI panic fades faster than foundry leadership does. TSM's edge is still process tech, not this fear flush
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11-07
$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$
TOPQuality usually keeps a premium in S-REITs, and CICT still looks like a core hold if rates stop being the whole story.
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11-07 00:34
$Apple(AAPL)$ APE has a lot to do to help the ecosystem in this space and it will help us get more users and investors in this market and make the best out there to make the world better and better and better with the
TOPVision Pro and Health are where the stickiness compounds. Once Apple ties devices, services, and data tighter, the ecosystem story gets way easier to underwrite
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11-07 00:58
$AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ Pick the right quality and growth company at the right valuation range and hold for the time to fly then look for the good price range to trim to generate the cash position while let the remaining quantity grow for a longer term! "Thats Professionalism with the balanced trade and investments!"
TOPBalanced sounds nice, but APP still looks rich on sales and ad competition can compress that fast
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11-07 23:36
$Apple(AAPL)$ 🍎 Why I Continue to Hold Apple ($AAPL) – A Long-Term Investment in Quality 🍎 1️⃣ Why am I holding Apple? I continue to hold Apple because I believe it is more than just a company selling iPhones. It has built one of the strongest consumer technology ecosystems in the world. From the iPhone and iPad to Mac, Apple Watch, AirPods and its services business, customers are deeply connected to its products. What I particularly like is its customer loyalty. Once someone enters the Apple ecosystem, switching to another brand can be difficult because all the devices and services work seamlessly together. This creates recurring demand and gives Apple a competitive advantage. 💰 2️⃣ Strong Financial Foundation I also appreciate Apple
TOPAt this multiple, Apple already prices in a lot more than mid single digit growth. Ecosystem strength is real, but valuation leaves very little room for execution misses.
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11-08 03:23
$SOFI 20261106 14.5 PUT$ This trade highlights the risks of options trading, particularly when dealing with short-term expiry contracts. The SOFI $14.50 put position resulted in a 100% loss, indicating that the trade did not deliver the expected outcome. Although SOFI remains an interesting fintech stock with long-term growth potential, the timing and market direction were not favourable for this position. The key takeaway is the importance of managing downside risk, monitoring price movements and avoiding excessive exposure to near-expiry options. Moving forward, better entry timing, disciplined stop-loss strategies and careful expiry selection are essential.
TOPBiggest damage was probably Theta, not just direction. Did IV get crushed too, or was this mostly a near-expiry decay problem?