I’d watch sugar, palm oil and agricultural commodities first. They’re already showing strength, so the key is whether weather disruptions translate into lower production and tighter inventories. That would make the move more fundamental than a short-term expectations trade. I’d then watch fertilizer and agricultural inputs. If crop prices remain elevated, stronger farm economics could support planting and fertilizer demand. I’d want to see this confirmed by planting data and earnings. Ultimately, food-company margins would be the biggest signal for me. If higher commodity costs persist and companies start flagging input-cost pressure, it would suggest agricultural inflation is spreading into the broader economy. That’s when I’d take the El Niño theme much more seriously.
My vote is ① Sugar, palm oil and agricultural commodities. That’s where the first market reaction is most likely to appear, because weather risk is already meeting rising prices and potential supply constraints. The FAO Food Price Index rose 1.9% in August, while sugar jumped 11.9% and vegetable oils continued to strengthen. Still, I wouldn’t blindly trade the El Niño headline. The real confirmation should be downgraded production forecasts, falling inventories and sustained price increases. If those appear, fertilizer and agricultural-input stocks could become the next beneficiaries, while food companies may face margin pressure. The key chain is: weather → supply cuts → commodity prices → corporate margins → food inflation. I’d watch the first three links most closely.
El Niño Is Here: Could Rising Food Prices Become the Next Market Theme?
Weather risks and food prices are starting to flash at the same time. The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed that El Niño is now established and is expected to strengthen over the coming months. Current forecasts suggest the event is highly likely to persist into February 2027 and could reach “very strong” levels by year-end. At almost the same time, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization reported that its global food price index rose 1.9% month over month in August. All five major food categories increased. Sugar prices jumped 11.9% in a single month, vegetable oil prices rose for a third consecutive month, and grain prices also continued to strengthen. The key question for markets is no longer whether the weather outlook is deteriorating. It is:Will weather risks turn into
Blowout NFP, Trump Pressure, and a Choppy Gold Market: One Strategy to Navigate It！💹📉
Last week’s note highlighted the need for caution around the nonfarm payrolls report. The data had become more difficult to forecast than usual because payroll figures have been revised frequently in recent years, increasing the likelihood of surprises and larger market swings. The result was indeed a blowout: U.S. Department of Labor data showed that nonfarm employment surged by 162,000 in August, far exceeding the market expectation of 55,000. This exceptionally strong report once again disrupted the market’s expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The market had previously scaled back expectations of a September rate hike, but the release put rate-hike expectations back in the driver’s seat. The probability of a Fed rate increase in September has now returned to roughly a 60/40 split.
Long-Term Yields Are Approaching a Tipping Point—Could Dollar Drop Another 10%？
Recently, the broader market and most asset classes have remained locked in a relatively measured, range-bound tug-of-war. Inflation and rate-hike discussions have driven short-term volatility, but they have not triggered any meaningful change in the overall trend. Meanwhile, in a less closely watched corner of the market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has gradually climbed back toward the highs of the previous tightening cycle. If bond prices lose further control from here, both the Federal Reserve and the market itself could face significant challenges. In theory, changes in U.S. interest rates drive fluctuations in Treasury prices and, in turn, movements in Treasury yields. In other words, policy rates should serve as the anchor. This year, however, long-dated Treasury yields have cle
Futures Weekly：Gold Longs Stay Concentrated—Can Oil’s Advance Hold Without Inventory Support?
As of the close on August 28, 2026, this report examines the interaction among interest-rate expectations, the U.S. dollar, inventory data, fund flows, and speculative positioning across gold, silver, crude oil, copper, and aluminum. Market Overview U.S. July PCE inflation rose 3.7% year over year, while core PCE inflation increased 3.3%; both remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. At the Jackson Hole meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stated explicitly that “if inflation does not decline meaningfully, further rate hikes may be necessary,” significantly increasing market expectations for a September rate hike. Against this backdrop, the commodity market featured precious metals consolidating at elevated levels before pulling back, crude oil retreating as its geopolitical p
🌟🌟🌟The ultimate macro impact of this round of oil price increases on US stocks centres squarely on Option B: The direct transmission of energy inflation will force Kevin Warsh's Fed into a surprise September rate hike, sending the heaviest liquidation pressure straight to growth and technology stocks. Why? When crude oil stays pinned at USD 95, it transmits a massive price impulse straight through the Consumer Price Index or CPI & Producer Price Index (PPI) metrics. Kevin Warsh has warned that financial conditions are not restrictive enough. Surging oil gives him a mandate to push the September interest rate hike probability to over 70%. Higher interest rates drive up global bond yields. The market drops today not because corporate earnings are bad, but b
Our Call That Gold and U.S. Equities Had Topped Out in the Near Term Has Been Validated Again Hello everyone, welcome back to the Macro Strategy Weekly. In this weekly report, we regularly select contributors within the community who have relevant professional expertise to share and consolidate their market-strategy views. We also track, on a weekly basis, how those strategy calls have played out. Before turning to this week’s strategy discussion, let us review the results of our previous calls. On July 21 this year, our strategy weekly published an analysis titled: Macro Strategy Weekly: Treasury Bond Purchases Are Bearish for Markets—U.S. Equity and Gold Bulls Should Be Cautious The report received substantial engagem
Why Sell Puts Still Make Sense Now — And the Big Opportunity Brewing in Equities
The impasse of range-bound trading at elevated levels in the U.S. equity market remains unresolved. On the one hand, September seasonality, defensive positioning by institutional investors, and the potential seasonal tendency for the VIX to rise all suggest that a strong short-term rally is unlikely. On the other hand, robust corporate earnings and the fact that equity-index P/E multiples have not expanded materially are limiting the downside for U.S. equities. My conclusion for the U.S. market over the coming week is therefore as follows: taking all factors into account, U.S. equities are more likely to remain range-bound at elevated levels than to enter a one-way decline. At the same time, we should pay attention to a new opportunity at relatively depressed levels: commodity indices are
Gold’s Correction Arrived as Expected—Will 4,000 Hold as Support?
Late August is typically when the world’s central banks hold a major annual gathering. The Federal Reserve—the “central bank of the world,” as it is sometimes described—is the central figure at the event, and remarks from the Fed Chair are often viewed as a briefing to central banks around the world on the Fed’s policy path. At present, the financial market’s primary concern is whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates and, if so, when. That is why Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks last week had a significant impact on market expectations. The most direct result was that, following Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole on August 28, 2026, the interest-rate futures-implied probability of a September rate hike rose from approximately 35% the previous day to nearly 60%. A rate hike
Nonfarm Payrolls in Focus: Will Gold Hold as Equity Indices Reassess?
Following last weekend’s Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a relatively hawkish message, prompting the market to reassess and reprice the timing of U.S. interest-rate hikes. According to the current FedWatch data, the probability of a rate hike at the end of September is slightly above 50%. This implies that the next round of nonfarm payroll and inflation data to be released next month could play an important role. From a data perspective, the probability of a rate hike surged by nearly 20 percentage points within just one week, driven entirely by Warsh’s remarks rather than by any other major economic data releases. However, based on historical experience, only probabilities above 70% tend to produce near-certain outcomes. With the current probability still below 60%
Could the U.S. Treasury’s Aggressive Market Support Backfire? Three Ways to Track the Current Market
Last night, in a futures livestream on the Tiger platform, I shared my latest views on the movements of gold, equity indices, and the U.S. dollar following the U.S. Treasury’s announcement on Treasury bond purchases. The core of this session was how to assess, through correlations across different asset classes, whether the market has shifted from a range-bound environment into a new trend phase. Those who were unable to attend may watch the replay of our video course here: >>> Could the U.S. Treasury’s Aggressive Market Support Backfire? Three Ways to Track the Current Market Next, I will summarize the key information and
Weekly Valuation Watch：The US Equity Rally Faces a Test? Diverging Flows and Uneven M7 Valuations
This week sits at a key macro inflection point for US equities: the US is set to release important macro data including GDP and PCE, while the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium will be held over the weekend, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks could provide new guidance for rate expectations. Against this backdrop, Nvidia, a core name in the AI supply chain, will report earnings after the close on Wednesday; its results and guidance will directly test whether elevated capital expenditure can continue to translate into orders and profitability. The confluence of macro data, central bank commentary, and tech leadership earnings makes this week a critical checkpoint for whether the “AI narrative” can continue to support rich valuations. The core issue this week is not the direction
El Niño Is Here: Could Rising Food Prices Become the Next Market Theme?
Weather risks and food prices are starting to flash at the same time. The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed that El Niño is now established and is expected to strengthen over the coming months. Current forecasts suggest the event is highly likely to persist into February 2027 and could reach “very strong” levels by year-end. At almost the same time, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization reported that its global food price index rose 1.9% month over month in August. All five major food categories increased. Sugar prices jumped 11.9% in a single month, vegetable oil prices rose for a third consecutive month, and grain prices also continued to strengthen. The key question for markets is no longer whether the weather outlook is deteriorating. It is:Will weather risks turn into
I’d watch sugar, palm oil and agricultural commodities first. They’re already showing strength, so the key is whether weather disruptions translate into lower production and tighter inventories. That would make the move more fundamental than a short-term expectations trade. I’d then watch fertilizer and agricultural inputs. If crop prices remain elevated, stronger farm economics could support planting and fertilizer demand. I’d want to see this confirmed by planting data and earnings. Ultimately, food-company margins would be the biggest signal for me. If higher commodity costs persist and companies start flagging input-cost pressure, it would suggest agricultural inflation is spreading into the broader economy. That’s when I’d take the El Niño theme much more seriously.
My vote is ① Sugar, palm oil and agricultural commodities. That’s where the first market reaction is most likely to appear, because weather risk is already meeting rising prices and potential supply constraints. The FAO Food Price Index rose 1.9% in August, while sugar jumped 11.9% and vegetable oils continued to strengthen. Still, I wouldn’t blindly trade the El Niño headline. The real confirmation should be downgraded production forecasts, falling inventories and sustained price increases. If those appear, fertilizer and agricultural-input stocks could become the next beneficiaries, while food companies may face margin pressure. The key chain is: weather → supply cuts → commodity prices → corporate margins → food inflation. I’d watch the first three links most closely.
Blowout NFP, Trump Pressure, and a Choppy Gold Market: One Strategy to Navigate It！💹📉
Last week’s note highlighted the need for caution around the nonfarm payrolls report. The data had become more difficult to forecast than usual because payroll figures have been revised frequently in recent years, increasing the likelihood of surprises and larger market swings. The result was indeed a blowout: U.S. Department of Labor data showed that nonfarm employment surged by 162,000 in August, far exceeding the market expectation of 55,000. This exceptionally strong report once again disrupted the market’s expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The market had previously scaled back expectations of a September rate hike, but the release put rate-hike expectations back in the driver’s seat. The probability of a Fed rate increase in September has now returned to roughly a 60/40 split.
Long-Term Yields Are Approaching a Tipping Point—Could Dollar Drop Another 10%？
Recently, the broader market and most asset classes have remained locked in a relatively measured, range-bound tug-of-war. Inflation and rate-hike discussions have driven short-term volatility, but they have not triggered any meaningful change in the overall trend. Meanwhile, in a less closely watched corner of the market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has gradually climbed back toward the highs of the previous tightening cycle. If bond prices lose further control from here, both the Federal Reserve and the market itself could face significant challenges. In theory, changes in U.S. interest rates drive fluctuations in Treasury prices and, in turn, movements in Treasury yields. In other words, policy rates should serve as the anchor. This year, however, long-dated Treasury yields have cle
Futures Weekly：Gold Longs Stay Concentrated—Can Oil’s Advance Hold Without Inventory Support?
As of the close on August 28, 2026, this report examines the interaction among interest-rate expectations, the U.S. dollar, inventory data, fund flows, and speculative positioning across gold, silver, crude oil, copper, and aluminum. Market Overview U.S. July PCE inflation rose 3.7% year over year, while core PCE inflation increased 3.3%; both remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. At the Jackson Hole meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stated explicitly that “if inflation does not decline meaningfully, further rate hikes may be necessary,” significantly increasing market expectations for a September rate hike. Against this backdrop, the commodity market featured precious metals consolidating at elevated levels before pulling back, crude oil retreating as its geopolitical p
Our Call That Gold and U.S. Equities Had Topped Out in the Near Term Has Been Validated Again Hello everyone, welcome back to the Macro Strategy Weekly. In this weekly report, we regularly select contributors within the community who have relevant professional expertise to share and consolidate their market-strategy views. We also track, on a weekly basis, how those strategy calls have played out. Before turning to this week’s strategy discussion, let us review the results of our previous calls. On July 21 this year, our strategy weekly published an analysis titled: Macro Strategy Weekly: Treasury Bond Purchases Are Bearish for Markets—U.S. Equity and Gold Bulls Should Be Cautious The report received substantial engagem
🌟🌟🌟The ultimate macro impact of this round of oil price increases on US stocks centres squarely on Option B: The direct transmission of energy inflation will force Kevin Warsh's Fed into a surprise September rate hike, sending the heaviest liquidation pressure straight to growth and technology stocks. Why? When crude oil stays pinned at USD 95, it transmits a massive price impulse straight through the Consumer Price Index or CPI & Producer Price Index (PPI) metrics. Kevin Warsh has warned that financial conditions are not restrictive enough. Surging oil gives him a mandate to push the September interest rate hike probability to over 70%. Higher interest rates drive up global bond yields. The market drops today not because corporate earnings are bad, but b
Why Sell Puts Still Make Sense Now — And the Big Opportunity Brewing in Equities
The impasse of range-bound trading at elevated levels in the U.S. equity market remains unresolved. On the one hand, September seasonality, defensive positioning by institutional investors, and the potential seasonal tendency for the VIX to rise all suggest that a strong short-term rally is unlikely. On the other hand, robust corporate earnings and the fact that equity-index P/E multiples have not expanded materially are limiting the downside for U.S. equities. My conclusion for the U.S. market over the coming week is therefore as follows: taking all factors into account, U.S. equities are more likely to remain range-bound at elevated levels than to enter a one-way decline. At the same time, we should pay attention to a new opportunity at relatively depressed levels: commodity indices are
Gold’s Correction Arrived as Expected—Will 4,000 Hold as Support?
Late August is typically when the world’s central banks hold a major annual gathering. The Federal Reserve—the “central bank of the world,” as it is sometimes described—is the central figure at the event, and remarks from the Fed Chair are often viewed as a briefing to central banks around the world on the Fed’s policy path. At present, the financial market’s primary concern is whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates and, if so, when. That is why Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks last week had a significant impact on market expectations. The most direct result was that, following Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole on August 28, 2026, the interest-rate futures-implied probability of a September rate hike rose from approximately 35% the previous day to nearly 60%. A rate hike
Could the U.S. Treasury’s Aggressive Market Support Backfire? Three Ways to Track the Current Market
Last night, in a futures livestream on the Tiger platform, I shared my latest views on the movements of gold, equity indices, and the U.S. dollar following the U.S. Treasury’s announcement on Treasury bond purchases. The core of this session was how to assess, through correlations across different asset classes, whether the market has shifted from a range-bound environment into a new trend phase. Those who were unable to attend may watch the replay of our video course here: >>> Could the U.S. Treasury’s Aggressive Market Support Backfire? Three Ways to Track the Current Market Next, I will summarize the key information and
Macro Strategy Weekly: Treasury Buybacks, Jackson Hole, and the Key Trend Every Trader Must Watch
This Week’s Highlights 1. The U.S. Treasury will at least double the size of its liquidity-support buybacks for Treasury securities maturing in 10 to 30 years, raising the cap per operation from USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion. This measure may help stabilize the long-term bond market temporarily and suggests that the Treasury may be seeking to keep long-term yields near 5%. However, Treasury buybacks are not equivalent to the Federal Reserve purchasing bonds with newly created money through quantitative easing. They more closely resemble replacing long-term debt with short-term debt, and therefore cannot fundamentally eliminate the pressure from high deficits, elevated interest costs, and excessive long-term bond supply. If the market instead questions the government’s ability to
Nonfarm Payrolls in Focus: Will Gold Hold as Equity Indices Reassess?
Following last weekend’s Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a relatively hawkish message, prompting the market to reassess and reprice the timing of U.S. interest-rate hikes. According to the current FedWatch data, the probability of a rate hike at the end of September is slightly above 50%. This implies that the next round of nonfarm payroll and inflation data to be released next month could play an important role. From a data perspective, the probability of a rate hike surged by nearly 20 percentage points within just one week, driven entirely by Warsh’s remarks rather than by any other major economic data releases. However, based on historical experience, only probabilities above 70% tend to produce near-certain outcomes. With the current probability still below 60%
Weekly Valuation Watch：The US Equity Rally Faces a Test? Diverging Flows and Uneven M7 Valuations
This week sits at a key macro inflection point for US equities: the US is set to release important macro data including GDP and PCE, while the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium will be held over the weekend, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks could provide new guidance for rate expectations. Against this backdrop, Nvidia, a core name in the AI supply chain, will report earnings after the close on Wednesday; its results and guidance will directly test whether elevated capital expenditure can continue to translate into orders and profitability. The confluence of macro data, central bank commentary, and tech leadership earnings makes this week a critical checkpoint for whether the “AI narrative” can continue to support rich valuations. The core issue this week is not the direction
Why I Think Going Long U.S. Stocks and Gold Ahead of Jackson Hole Isn't a Good Idea
I believe most market participants currently recognize that U.S. equities are at an extremely delicate point of equilibrium. Technically, the S&P 500 has already fallen below its 20-day moving average, and bearish sentiment has intensified sharply. At the fundamental level, however, the fragile balance among U.S. Treasuries, U.S. equities, confidence in the U.S. dollar, and inflation expectations remains unchanged. The Treasury’s expansion of its long-term Treasury buyback program may appear to stabilize the market, but in the face of rapidly rising debt and elevated interest costs, the measure looks more like an attempt to buy time than to solve the underlying problem. $标普500(.SPX)$