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2022-12-06

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US stock earnings continue to decline amid recessionary pressures; a decline may be necessary for the market to rise first.

美股2022年三季度业绩进一步放缓，基本接近零增长。持续加大的增长压力下美股盈利前景如何，对美股后续走势有何影响，本文中我们将重点分析。增长趋势：盈利继续放缓，逼近零增长；能源和交运是主要贡献，金融与

US stock earnings continue to decline amid recessionary pressures; a decline may be necessary for the market to rise first.

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":9967246370,"tweetId":"9967246370","gmtCreate":1670340256390,"gmtModify":1676538347883,"author":{"id":3574387078391491,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorId":3574387078391491,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":19,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>[捂脸]&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>[捂脸]&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"[捂脸]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967246370","repostId":1195902581,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195902581","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"图文并茂讲解中金深度研究报告","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中金点睛","id":"1012212489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b16ed39660b4e0c835afdaf1c94aa75"},"pubTimestamp":1670305215,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195902581?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-06 13:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"US stock earnings continue to decline amid recessionary pressures; a decline may be necessary for the market to rise first.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195902581","media":"中金点睛","summary":"美股2022年三季度业绩进一步放缓，基本接近零增长。持续加大的增长压力下美股盈利前景如何，对美股后续走势有何影响，本文中我们将重点分析。增长趋势：盈利继续放缓，逼近零增长；能源和交运是主要贡献，金融与","content":"<html><head></head><body>U.S. stock market performance slowed further in the third quarter of 2022, with growth essentially close to zero. What are the earnings prospects of US stocks under increasing growth pressure, and what impact will it have on the subsequent trend of US stocks? This article will focus on analyzing this.Growth trend: Profits continue to slow, approaching zero growth; Energy and transportation are the main contributors, while finance and technology are a significant drag.US stock earnings continued to weaken in the third quarter, approaching zero growth.On a comparable basis, the S&P 500's EPS in the third quarter increased by only 0.6% year-on-year (non-financial 4.9%), continuing to decline from 2.9% in the second quarter (non-financial 10.5%). The Nasdaq 100's EPS for the third quarter was -1% year-over-year, an improvement from -5.1% in the second quarter. The S&P 500's better-than-expected performance fell to 1.9% from 2.9% in the second quarter (the pre-pandemic average was 5.4%), and the better-than-expected percentage also decreased from 76% in the second quarter to 70% (the pre-pandemic average was 71%). Overall, a further slowdown in US stock earnings is expected due to high costs and low demand.Chart: On a comparable basis, the S&P 500's EPS grew by 0.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, continuing to decline from 2.9% in the second quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd88bce6d3c21dc090a566cd06e96c1e\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Research DepartmentChart: Nasdaq 100 EPS -1% year-over-year, up from the previous quarter<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76e860775855f037c4f392e7abe7ed28\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research DepartmentChart: The S&P 500's better-than-expected earnings continued to decline in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter (1.9% in the third quarter vs. 2.9% in the second quarter), but the number of companies exceeding expectations still reached 70%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d955c32bfc57b2d6af5ae17ebc5aa90\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: More than 75% of companies in the information technology, industrial, consumer staples, and healthcare sectors still exceeded expectations; In terms of exceeding expectations, energy, healthcare, and essential consumption had the highest growth rates.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1db520d3f2e5fee56fe6ed927d652f17\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentEnergy and transportation are the main contributions; The financial sector is under pressure, and the pharmaceutical, semiconductor, and internet sectors are also slowing down.Driven by a low base and a rebound in oil prices (Brent crude oil averaged $98 per barrel in the third quarter vs. $73 per barrel in the third quarter of last year), energy, consumer services, and transportation EPS grew by 152%, 149%, and 68% year-on-year, respectively, while automobiles and auto parts, and real estate also ranked among the top in terms of growth (40% and 39%). In contrast, the financial sector was under pressure, with EPS in the third quarter falling by 19% year-on-year (vs. -26% in the second quarter). The four major banks (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Citibank<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo Bank</a>Loan losses rose to $4.6 billion in the third quarter, as slowing loan demand coupled with weak investment banking business also dragged down profits. In addition, the growth rates of raw materials, insurance, biopharmaceuticals, durable goods and apparel, semiconductors, and media and entertainment also declined significantly. In terms of contribution level, energy (4.1ppt), discretionary consumption (1.2ppt), and transportation (1.1ppt) were the main contributors, while communication services, diversified finance, and insurance significantly dragged down the market.Chart: In the third quarter, energy, consumer services, and transportation profits remained significantly ahead year-on-year, while insurance, media, and entertainment lagged behind.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6b9a12c96ae1ad8c5b396f648e6b00\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Compared to the second quarter, profit growth in retail, real estate, and banking increased, but raw materials, insurance, and biopharmaceuticals declined.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dee05357e8cc7325932a5aecd947160d\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: In the S&P 500's 0.6% year-on-year EPS growth in the third quarter, energy and consumer discretionaries contributed 4.1 and 1.2 percentage points, respectively, while communications services, diversified finance, and insurance dragged down 2.5, 1.3, and 1.2 percentage points, respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4288d85b87147287c52f73ba90d721\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Among the Nasdaq 100's -1% year-on-year EPS growth, healthcare, information technology, and communications services were significantly dragged down, reaching -1.2, -1.1, and -0.9 percentage points respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27cd4234876e0a3e9215c7e26a9362bf\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentIt is worth mentioning that the profits of technology companies, which are the leading companies in the US stock market, have declined for five consecutive quarters and have turned negative. This is mainly due to the \"triple pressure\" of weak demand, a strong dollar, and high inflation. Management has stated that they will control costs by slowing down hiring and laying off employees.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>META Technology's leading companies both performed worse than expected in the third quarter, with net profit declining by 89%, 72%, and 52% year-on-year, respectively. In addition, the strong US dollar has also had a negative impact due to the high proportion of overseas revenue for leading technology companies (FAAMNG average 53% vs. S&P 500 39%). FAAMNG's net profit as a percentage of the S&P 500's non-financial sector also fell from 27% at the end of 2020 to 17.7% in the third quarter. Many companies have said they will slow hiring or lay off employees to control costs, and Intel has proposed a multi-billion dollar cost-cutting plan.Chart: Overview of Q3 Performance of Leading US Tech Companies<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c8fcaec4cdf748e5e8d15beb3481067\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department (Overseas revenue percentage is the percentage of overseas revenue excluding the United States for each company as of the end of 2021)Chart: The market capitalization share of leading US tech companies (FAAMNG) has fallen from a high of 24.2% in September 2020 to 18.6%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2db5282d9e3ed156330a41bc1fbc9e3d\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: The performance of the FAAMNG S&P 500 has a significant negative correlation with US financial conditions.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d940ed71b15067e6eaa4e0cd899c1012\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, CICC ResearchChart: FAAMNG revenue as a percentage of non-financial revenue in the S&P 500 fell from a high of 10.7% in September 2021 to 10.4% in the third quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87ba825dc35c2684114291fcf786bf3\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: FAAMNG's net profit as a percentage of non-financial assets in the S&P 500 fell from a high of 27% at the end of 2020 to 17.7% in the third quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83e8c72dfd741f0cbb13e1db0dafb270\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: FAAMNG revenue in the third quarter was 10.2% year-on-year, lower than the average of 20% since 2006.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef7cd447a8018d85927a9d6cc477d22b\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: FAAMNG's net profit in the third quarter fell by 12.6% year-on-year, lower than the average of 23% since 2006.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8eb3628d57210eb18550bfb95869413\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentDemand and Cost Analysis: High costs continue to squeeze profit margins; low inventory amid declining demand gives the industry stronger bargaining power.Revenue continued to decline as demand cooled, and high costs continued to squeeze profit margins.The S&P 500's revenue in the third quarter increased by 9.3% year-over-year (non-financial 9.6%), continuing to decline from 10.5% in the second quarter (non-financial 11.7%). Looking at different sectors, compared to the second quarter, automobiles and auto parts saw a significant increase, while biopharmaceuticals and semiconductors saw a significant decline. Meanwhile, high costs continued to squeeze net profit margins, with the S&P 500's net profit margin at 11.3% in the third quarter, continuing to decline from 11.7% in the second quarter; The non-financial net profit margin also fell from 11.3% in the second quarter to 11% in the third quarter. Excluding the energy sector, the net profit margin fell to 10.3% in the third quarter (vs. 10.6% in the second quarter). Looking at different sectors, consumer services, household and personal products, and utilities saw significant gains, while software and services, raw materials, and media and entertainment saw significant declines.Chart: S&P 500 non-financial income fell to 9.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, largely consistent with the downward trend in nominal GDP growth.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e37a4547b48a207f6b14f9304e7bf58a\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Compared to the second quarter, the growth rates of energy, transportation, and raw material revenues slowed significantly in the third quarter, while the growth rates of capital goods and utilities increased.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f93c5dae4bd0e9479ebb02394151ebe3\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: In the third quarter, the net profit margin of the S&P 500's non-financial sector fell to 11%, and the net profit margin of non-financial and non-energy sectors fell to 10.3%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432617bcc8b24361e71308483993e643\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Net profit margins in consumer services, household and personal goods, and utilities rose significantly, but software and services, media and entertainment, and raw materials declined markedly.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07dc321f1823fcf09628835379db8204\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentIndustries with low inventory levels can still rely on price increases to alleviate profit pressure.For example, due to high inventory and weakening demand, the semiconductor industry lacks bargaining power, resulting in a significant decline in sales revenue and continued pressure on interest rates (gross profit margin in the third quarter was 49.9% vs. 51% in the second quarter, with an average of 52.5% since 2013; net profit margin continued to fall to 21.7% from 22.3% in the second quarter). In contrast, in the automotive and auto parts sectors, companies can still maintain profits by raising prices due to insufficient inventory (gross profit margin rose to 14.6% in the third quarter, an average of 12.3% since 2013; net profit margin rose to 5.9%, an average of 4.1% since 2013). However, we expect that as real recessionary pressures gradually intensify next year, weakening overall demand will gradually erode its profitability.Chart: Sales revenue in the semiconductor sector, where inventory remained high in the third quarter, declined, and gross profit margins continued to decline.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed34a98561525abf0b66269ecd7fad88\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Sales revenue in the automotive and auto parts sector, which still had insufficient inventory in the third quarter, continued to rise, while gross profit margin remained stable.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59d1a9beea12b9afb5b4b88f9b3bac48\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentGrowth quality: slowdown in bond issuance, decline in cash flow and cash on hand; Decrease in repurchases; Leverage remains flat but solvency declinesIn terms of growth quality, the S&P 500's non-financial ROE fell to 24.3% in the third quarter from 24.9% in the second quarter (dragged down by declining net profit margins), and the non-financial and non-energy ROE continued to decline (22.7% vs. 23% in the second quarter). On the cash flow statement, corporate bond issuance slowed down in the third quarter, resulting in a decrease in operating cash flow and cash on hand; Repurchases declined, while capital expenditures increased. From a leverage perspective, financial leverage remained basically unchanged in the third quarter, but solvency declined. Specifically:Chart: S&P 500 non-financial sector ROE fell to 24.3% in the third quarter; Net profit margin declined, while asset turnover ratio and leverage ratio remained basically unchanged.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0eb583f51ae503018abb7f8e2e29f45f\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Excluding energy, ROE fell to 22.7% in the third quarter; Net profit margin declined, while asset turnover and leverage ratio increased slightly.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483b8f5974cdc60e81fb5a28b3ab4e6f\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department► Operating cash flow weakened, corporate bond issuance slowed down, and cash on hand decreased.Over the past 12 months, the S&P 500's non-financial and non-energy operating cash flow continued to decline year-on-year in the third quarter (3.8% in the third quarter vs. 8.3% in the second quarter). Rising financing costs amid the Federal Reserve's continued tightening efforts further slowed corporate credit bond issuance in the third quarter ($296.1 billion, down 33% year-over-year). As a result, the S&P 500's non-financial and non-energy cash on hand fell from $1.51 trillion in the second quarter to $1.48 trillion in the third quarter, and its proportion of total assets decreased to 3.8% in the third quarter (vs. 3.9% in the second quarter). Looking at different sectors, the proportion of cash on hand in total assets in consumer discretionary, communication services, and information technology all declined significantly.Chart: Non-financial operating cash flow continued to decline year-on-year (TTM) in the third quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8310746c9db520a529a467ba5b3a763\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Energy, utilities, and transportation sectors led in operating cash flow year-on-year, but consumer discretionary and capital goods sectors lagged behind year-on-year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa956efa6c9a6b5c81c3cc8108160b99\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: According to SIFMA statistics, corporate credit bond issuance reached $296.1 billion in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 32.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.9%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/320880f44c9a20dbceef3fc36061e3b2\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: SIFMA, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Non-financial cash on hand in the S&P 500 fell to $1.59 trillion in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter, with information technology and discretionary consumption still accounting for a relatively high proportion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0030b955b4da06b41a7070ed87c2726f\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Energy and information technology have the highest proportion of cash on hand to total assets, but only energy, raw materials, and healthcare saw significant increases compared to the previous quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5338234b2fa7464fff89420858f9cb96\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department► The scale of repurchases continued to decline.S&P 500 share buybacks fell from $225.7 billion in the second quarter to $196 billion in the third quarter, and their share of market capitalization decreased from 3% in the second quarter to 2.8%. However, share buybacks in the energy sector remained strong (its share of market capitalization rose from 6.1% in the second quarter to 6.4% in the third quarter), while information technology saw a decrease from 3.8% in the second quarter to 3% in the third quarter. In terms of contribution to EPS, share buybacks contributed 5.6% to recurring EPS growth in the third quarter, a significant increase from 3.3% in the second quarter; Nasdaq 100 share buybacks contributed slightly to recurring EPS growth (2.4% in the third quarter vs. 2.2% in the second quarter).Chart: Disclosed repurchase amounts continued to decline compared to the previous quarter, reaching approximately $196 billion, dropping to 2.8% of market capitalization.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0e2aea5a4feeab0897b00a48e7798bf\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Information technology accounts for 30%, discretionary consumption accounts for 16.4%, finance accounts for 12.8%, and utilities and real estate account for the lowest percentages.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3948111a95f3a55a8d40558fdf8bbece\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Buybacks contributed 5.6% to recurring EPS growth, continuing to rise from 3.3% in the second quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32c3db1cb34f6bf0e1ab874252212942\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Nasdaq 100 share buybacks contributed approximately 2.4% to recurring EPS growth, continuing to rise from 2.2% in the second quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f294fb4c3d747c910ed8b2d5298d4d59\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department► Leverage remained flat, but solvency declined.In the third quarter, the S&P 500's overall non-financial net leverage ratio (net debt/net assets) remained basically at 77% of the second quarter, as did the median net leverage ratio of individual stocks (remaining at 60% of the second quarter). However, the overall non-financial interest rate reserve ratio (EBIT/(interest expense + capitalized interest)) decreased from 11.3 in the second quarter to 10.1 in the third quarter (the median interest rate reserve ratio for individual stocks decreased from 9.6 in the second quarter to 8.9 in the third quarter). Looking at different sectors, net leverage ratios in energy, healthcare, and real estate declined in the third quarter, but information technology saw an increase.Chart: The median net leverage ratio of S&P 500 non-financial stocks remained at 60% in the third quarter compared to the second quarter; The overall net leverage ratio is also the same.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ae5b91960777c7e6475072b898eeb1e\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: The median interest rate reserve ratio for S&P 500 non-financial stocks fell from 9.6 in the second quarter to 8.9 in the third quarter, as did the overall net leverage ratio.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a0d40f107f0f30a48f0bd04498a7707\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentInventory and Investment Cycle: Entering a proactive destocking cycle; Investment increased, but this could not mask the slowdown.Enterprises have entered a phase of proactive inventory reduction, resulting in a decline in finished goods inventory.In \"The Asset Implications of Active Destocking in the United States,\" we pointed out that the United States has entered a phase of active destocking. In the third quarter, total non-financial inventories in the S&P 500 continued to rise, but inventories of raw materials, especially finished goods, have gradually declined. The year-on-year inventory growth rate has also peaked and declined (17.5% in the third quarter vs. 21.3% in the second quarter). The average profit decline (12-month dynamic EPS) during the proactive destocking phase was 7%, with the impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic being even greater.Chart: S&P 500 non-financial total inventories continued to rise in the third quarter, while raw material and finished goods inventories declined.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e815e3a3a6c3d31d6aae3022e143e9d\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: The year-on-year growth rate of total inventory peaked and declined (17.5% in the third quarter vs. 21.3% in the second quarter), as did raw materials, semi-finished products, and finished products.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d727ec32cb652c020927614463ee897c\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Looking back at historical experience, the average profit decline during the proactive destocking phase (S&P 500 12-month dynamic EPS) is around 7%, with the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic having a greater impact.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d44ed7d96d76f27ef4dce0e9def4d5b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, Haver, CICC ResearchCapital expenditures have increased, but this may not mask the overall slowdown.Non-financial capital expenditures in the S&P 500 rose 21% year-on-year in the third quarter, compared to 17% in the second quarter; Capital expenditures excluding energy were 16.4% year-on-year (vs. 14.7% in the second quarter). The absolute scale also increased, with energy, telecommunications services, utilities, technology hardware, and semiconductors being particularly noticeable. From a macroeconomic perspective, U.S. non-residential fixed asset investment actually increased by 3.2% year-on-year in the third quarter (vs. 2.4% in the second quarter), which was also higher than in the second quarter. Intangible asset and facility investment declined year-on-year, but equipment investment (5.3% year-on-year in the third quarter vs. 2.0% in the second quarter), especially information processing equipment and transportation equipment, increased significantly. This may be related to the Biden administration's promotion of the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chip and Science Act in August 2022 (\"Policy and Market Implications of the U.S. Midterm Elections\"). However, given the increasing downward pressure on US growth, corporate willingness to spend capital may be further suppressed (multiple local Federal Reserve surveys have shown that corporate asset spending expectations for the next six months have fallen again since August of this year, see \"Historical Experience of Past Recessions in the United States by review\").Chart: Capital expenditure increased year-on-year in the second quarter (21% in the third quarter vs. 16.6% in the second quarter)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dce0cc997ed9d3978e28c33f9175e91\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Non-financial and non-energy capital expenditures increased year-on-year (16.4% in Q3 vs. 14.7% in Q2)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dd6874bffc97ad18c1533a281be512c\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Capital expenditures in retail, semiconductors, and telecommunications services exceeded pre-pandemic levels in the third quarter, but there are still gaps in energy, capital goods, and consumer services.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bd00ac75b28b765f2453b4eca27039c\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Equipment investment, especially information processing equipment and transportation equipment, grew significantly in the third quarter compared to the second quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb0768ed59c5b234392551df0075d91f\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Haver, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Expectations for corporate asset spending over the next six months surveyed by several local Feds have fallen again since August of this year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685326eddb4fb4d6c5a3708058d923d8\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Wind, CICC Research DepartmentBy combining demand, capacity utilization, inventory, capital expenditure, and leverage, we found that...semiconductor(Weak demand, high inventory and investment, high leverage)media entertainment(Weak demand, high inventory and investment, low production capacity)telecommunications servicesThe pressure is greater due to weak demand, high inventory and leverage.Retail(Weak demand, high inventory) andtransportation(Demand is acceptable, but inventory, investment and leverage are higher, and production capacity is lower) is also worth noting.Chart: The year-on-year growth rate of sales revenue from telecommunications services, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, and media and entertainment in the third quarter was significantly lower than the average since 2006.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44169e5de6ab02299336490c4ca9df5b\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Compared to the average since 2006, the year-on-year inventory growth rate of semiconductors, media and entertainment, and consumer services remains relatively high.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d81c6065d3b836a99e10c2fb92f14bfb\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Capital expenditures in energy, transportation, and semiconductors remained relatively high year-on-year in the third quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b35a9dabb8cab3bf261d670a24871a\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Fixed asset turnover rates in software and services, durable consumer goods and apparel, and retail in the third quarter were significantly lower than the average since 2006.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff63c2cf442209c225630980152f64d\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Leverage ratios in consumer services, technology hardware, transportation, and semiconductors are higher than the 2006 average.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fa5ad9af8268936b20c8786a584a032\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: We find that semiconductors, media and entertainment, and telecommunications services are under greater pressure; Retail and transportation also deserve attention.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/281255e89c006f144c82054bb0a57a90\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"877\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department (red indicates higher pressure)Outlook: US stock earnings may continue to decline under recessionary pressure, with a forecast of -5% in 2023; The market may need to decline first if it wants to rise; it will face pressure from the molecular side in the second quarter.Considering that financing costs across the United States have now exceeded investment returns (for example, the real yield on investment-grade bonds exceeded the year-on-year growth rate of real GDP by 342 basis points in November; the 3M-10S interest rate spread is currently inverted by 75 basis points; high-yield bond yields once approached 10%, only 265 basis points lower than the S&P 500 ROIC; and the 30-year mortgage rate once approached 7%),Therefore, a gradual recession is likely to be a highly probable event.Based on historical experience with the inverted 3M-10S interest rate spread, recessionary pressure may occur in the first and second quarters of next year. However, based on review' experience of 18 recessions since 1920, deep recessions are generally caused by three reasons: high leverage, excessively tight monetary policy, or external shocks (\"review: The Historical Experience of Past Recessions in the United States\"). Therefore, as long as the Federal Reserve can stop its rate hike in the first quarter, the squeeze on investment returns from financing costs will not be very significant.This would prevent a very deep recession.(Looking back at historical experience, the average inversion range at 3m10s is 150bp). Against this backdrop, US stock earnings are likely to continue to decline, but the adjustment will not be significant. We currently expect profit growth in 2023 to drop to -5.5%, which is still room for decline compared to the current market expectation of 5.3%.Chart: Real Yield on Investment-Grade Bonds – Real GDP Year-on-Year Growth Rate Spread Breaks Threshold in October, Reaching 342 basis points at the End of November<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c0eaf8b19cf31e502ee35492e1e49ee\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: The 3M-10S interest rate spread began to invert in early November and is currently around 75 basis points.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4663493b53707ff32b55df93456a58e\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: The current yield on US high-yield bonds is 8.4%, with a spread of approximately 265 basis points compared to US stock ROIC.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7194ae3b39a04ab2edf5c1f584671d\" tg-width=\"845\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Current 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates are 6.5% and 5.8%, respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45b62d165bb0a8a0ad57ddd08517b423\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Current market consensus expects the S&P 500 to grow earnings by 5.7% in 2023 and 9.5% in 2024.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72291e9ae52e65e84e4514b787b5207c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentThe still relatively high valuations, coupled with increased recessionary pressures in the first and second quarters of next year, may cause US stocks to fall first.The current 12-month dynamic P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 17.7, higher than the historical average of 16.2 since 1990. The current tapering of tightening and the elimination of upside risks in US Treasury yields have provided support for US stocks in terms of interest rates and risk appetite. However, with increased recessionary pressure in the second quarter of next year, it may not be possible to immediately receive compensation from the denominator. After market volatility may force expectations of easing, the rapid decline in US Treasury yields may gradually bring greater allocation opportunities to growth stocks (\"Extrapolating the Three Stages of Federal Reserve Policy and Asset Rotation\"). Assuming the equity risk premium rises to the 10-year US Treasury yields of 2.7% and ~3.8%, respectively, corresponding to the lows at the end of September, the S&P 500 is reasonably valued at ~15 times. Our reasonable valuations based on growth and liquidity calculations are also roughly equivalent (a 48% ISM manufacturing PMI and a 10-year US Treasury yields of ~3.8% correspond to a reasonable valuation of 14.5 to 15 times), and the implied support level is 10 to 15% lower than currently. However, we expect the year-end level to be ~5% higher than the current level (\"Overseas Market Outlook 2023: A Decline May Be Needed First for a Rise\").Chart: The S&P 500's 12-month dynamic valuation is 17.7 times, higher than the average since 1990.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e919e36f5057d48920d53f3e12032741\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: The S&P 500's implied equity risk premium has fallen to a relatively low level of 2.2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c52c6a82a20cef03f58e038ead2090\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: S&P 500 earnings sentiment has continued to decline since turning negative in mid-June this year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a9dba718fdc93dd15b49376d1054d05\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: After market volatility in the second quarter of next year may force expectations of easing, the rapid decline in US Treasury yields may gradually bring greater allocation opportunities to growth stocks.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78374f5487af7a39f1cc2b32d46b82da\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: The current implied support level for the S&P 500 is 10-15% lower than the current level. However, we expect the year-end level to be ~5% higher than currently.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2abe0bef81f5c05679b06f9a48ed55\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department (red indicates higher pressure)</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US stock earnings continue to decline amid recessionary pressures; a decline may be necessary for the market to rise first.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS stock earnings continue to decline amid recessionary pressures; a decline may be necessary for the market to rise first.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012212489\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b16ed39660b4e0c835afdaf1c94aa75);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n中金点睛 \n2022-12-06 13:40\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>U.S. stock market performance slowed further in the third quarter of 2022, with growth essentially close to zero. What are the earnings prospects of US stocks under increasing growth pressure, and what impact will it have on the subsequent trend of US stocks? This article will focus on analyzing this.Growth trend: Profits continue to slow, approaching zero growth; Energy and transportation are the main contributors, while finance and technology are a significant drag.US stock earnings continued to weaken in the third quarter, approaching zero growth.On a comparable basis, the S&P 500's EPS in the third quarter increased by only 0.6% year-on-year (non-financial 4.9%), continuing to decline from 2.9% in the second quarter (non-financial 10.5%). The Nasdaq 100's EPS for the third quarter was -1% year-over-year, an improvement from -5.1% in the second quarter. The S&P 500's better-than-expected performance fell to 1.9% from 2.9% in the second quarter (the pre-pandemic average was 5.4%), and the better-than-expected percentage also decreased from 76% in the second quarter to 70% (the pre-pandemic average was 71%). Overall, a further slowdown in US stock earnings is expected due to high costs and low demand.Chart: On a comparable basis, the S&P 500's EPS grew by 0.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, continuing to decline from 2.9% in the second quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd88bce6d3c21dc090a566cd06e96c1e\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Research DepartmentChart: Nasdaq 100 EPS -1% year-over-year, up from the previous quarter<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76e860775855f037c4f392e7abe7ed28\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research DepartmentChart: The S&P 500's better-than-expected earnings continued to decline in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter (1.9% in the third quarter vs. 2.9% in the second quarter), but the number of companies exceeding expectations still reached 70%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d955c32bfc57b2d6af5ae17ebc5aa90\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: More than 75% of companies in the information technology, industrial, consumer staples, and healthcare sectors still exceeded expectations; In terms of exceeding expectations, energy, healthcare, and essential consumption had the highest growth rates.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1db520d3f2e5fee56fe6ed927d652f17\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentEnergy and transportation are the main contributions; The financial sector is under pressure, and the pharmaceutical, semiconductor, and internet sectors are also slowing down.Driven by a low base and a rebound in oil prices (Brent crude oil averaged $98 per barrel in the third quarter vs. $73 per barrel in the third quarter of last year), energy, consumer services, and transportation EPS grew by 152%, 149%, and 68% year-on-year, respectively, while automobiles and auto parts, and real estate also ranked among the top in terms of growth (40% and 39%). In contrast, the financial sector was under pressure, with EPS in the third quarter falling by 19% year-on-year (vs. -26% in the second quarter). The four major banks (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Citibank<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo Bank</a>Loan losses rose to $4.6 billion in the third quarter, as slowing loan demand coupled with weak investment banking business also dragged down profits. In addition, the growth rates of raw materials, insurance, biopharmaceuticals, durable goods and apparel, semiconductors, and media and entertainment also declined significantly. In terms of contribution level, energy (4.1ppt), discretionary consumption (1.2ppt), and transportation (1.1ppt) were the main contributors, while communication services, diversified finance, and insurance significantly dragged down the market.Chart: In the third quarter, energy, consumer services, and transportation profits remained significantly ahead year-on-year, while insurance, media, and entertainment lagged behind.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6b9a12c96ae1ad8c5b396f648e6b00\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Compared to the second quarter, profit growth in retail, real estate, and banking increased, but raw materials, insurance, and biopharmaceuticals declined.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dee05357e8cc7325932a5aecd947160d\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: In the S&P 500's 0.6% year-on-year EPS growth in the third quarter, energy and consumer discretionaries contributed 4.1 and 1.2 percentage points, respectively, while communications services, diversified finance, and insurance dragged down 2.5, 1.3, and 1.2 percentage points, respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4288d85b87147287c52f73ba90d721\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Among the Nasdaq 100's -1% year-on-year EPS growth, healthcare, information technology, and communications services were significantly dragged down, reaching -1.2, -1.1, and -0.9 percentage points respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27cd4234876e0a3e9215c7e26a9362bf\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentIt is worth mentioning that the profits of technology companies, which are the leading companies in the US stock market, have declined for five consecutive quarters and have turned negative. This is mainly due to the \"triple pressure\" of weak demand, a strong dollar, and high inflation. Management has stated that they will control costs by slowing down hiring and laying off employees.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>META Technology's leading companies both performed worse than expected in the third quarter, with net profit declining by 89%, 72%, and 52% year-on-year, respectively. In addition, the strong US dollar has also had a negative impact due to the high proportion of overseas revenue for leading technology companies (FAAMNG average 53% vs. S&P 500 39%). FAAMNG's net profit as a percentage of the S&P 500's non-financial sector also fell from 27% at the end of 2020 to 17.7% in the third quarter. Many companies have said they will slow hiring or lay off employees to control costs, and Intel has proposed a multi-billion dollar cost-cutting plan.Chart: Overview of Q3 Performance of Leading US Tech Companies<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c8fcaec4cdf748e5e8d15beb3481067\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department (Overseas revenue percentage is the percentage of overseas revenue excluding the United States for each company as of the end of 2021)Chart: The market capitalization share of leading US tech companies (FAAMNG) has fallen from a high of 24.2% in September 2020 to 18.6%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2db5282d9e3ed156330a41bc1fbc9e3d\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: The performance of the FAAMNG S&P 500 has a significant negative correlation with US financial conditions.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d940ed71b15067e6eaa4e0cd899c1012\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, CICC ResearchChart: FAAMNG revenue as a percentage of non-financial revenue in the S&P 500 fell from a high of 10.7% in September 2021 to 10.4% in the third quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87ba825dc35c2684114291fcf786bf3\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: FAAMNG's net profit as a percentage of non-financial assets in the S&P 500 fell from a high of 27% at the end of 2020 to 17.7% in the third quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83e8c72dfd741f0cbb13e1db0dafb270\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: FAAMNG revenue in the third quarter was 10.2% year-on-year, lower than the average of 20% since 2006.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef7cd447a8018d85927a9d6cc477d22b\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: FAAMNG's net profit in the third quarter fell by 12.6% year-on-year, lower than the average of 23% since 2006.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8eb3628d57210eb18550bfb95869413\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentDemand and Cost Analysis: High costs continue to squeeze profit margins; low inventory amid declining demand gives the industry stronger bargaining power.Revenue continued to decline as demand cooled, and high costs continued to squeeze profit margins.The S&P 500's revenue in the third quarter increased by 9.3% year-over-year (non-financial 9.6%), continuing to decline from 10.5% in the second quarter (non-financial 11.7%). Looking at different sectors, compared to the second quarter, automobiles and auto parts saw a significant increase, while biopharmaceuticals and semiconductors saw a significant decline. Meanwhile, high costs continued to squeeze net profit margins, with the S&P 500's net profit margin at 11.3% in the third quarter, continuing to decline from 11.7% in the second quarter; The non-financial net profit margin also fell from 11.3% in the second quarter to 11% in the third quarter. Excluding the energy sector, the net profit margin fell to 10.3% in the third quarter (vs. 10.6% in the second quarter). Looking at different sectors, consumer services, household and personal products, and utilities saw significant gains, while software and services, raw materials, and media and entertainment saw significant declines.Chart: S&P 500 non-financial income fell to 9.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, largely consistent with the downward trend in nominal GDP growth.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e37a4547b48a207f6b14f9304e7bf58a\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Compared to the second quarter, the growth rates of energy, transportation, and raw material revenues slowed significantly in the third quarter, while the growth rates of capital goods and utilities increased.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f93c5dae4bd0e9479ebb02394151ebe3\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: In the third quarter, the net profit margin of the S&P 500's non-financial sector fell to 11%, and the net profit margin of non-financial and non-energy sectors fell to 10.3%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432617bcc8b24361e71308483993e643\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Net profit margins in consumer services, household and personal goods, and utilities rose significantly, but software and services, media and entertainment, and raw materials declined markedly.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07dc321f1823fcf09628835379db8204\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentIndustries with low inventory levels can still rely on price increases to alleviate profit pressure.For example, due to high inventory and weakening demand, the semiconductor industry lacks bargaining power, resulting in a significant decline in sales revenue and continued pressure on interest rates (gross profit margin in the third quarter was 49.9% vs. 51% in the second quarter, with an average of 52.5% since 2013; net profit margin continued to fall to 21.7% from 22.3% in the second quarter). In contrast, in the automotive and auto parts sectors, companies can still maintain profits by raising prices due to insufficient inventory (gross profit margin rose to 14.6% in the third quarter, an average of 12.3% since 2013; net profit margin rose to 5.9%, an average of 4.1% since 2013). However, we expect that as real recessionary pressures gradually intensify next year, weakening overall demand will gradually erode its profitability.Chart: Sales revenue in the semiconductor sector, where inventory remained high in the third quarter, declined, and gross profit margins continued to decline.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed34a98561525abf0b66269ecd7fad88\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Sales revenue in the automotive and auto parts sector, which still had insufficient inventory in the third quarter, continued to rise, while gross profit margin remained stable.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59d1a9beea12b9afb5b4b88f9b3bac48\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentGrowth quality: slowdown in bond issuance, decline in cash flow and cash on hand; Decrease in repurchases; Leverage remains flat but solvency declinesIn terms of growth quality, the S&P 500's non-financial ROE fell to 24.3% in the third quarter from 24.9% in the second quarter (dragged down by declining net profit margins), and the non-financial and non-energy ROE continued to decline (22.7% vs. 23% in the second quarter). On the cash flow statement, corporate bond issuance slowed down in the third quarter, resulting in a decrease in operating cash flow and cash on hand; Repurchases declined, while capital expenditures increased. From a leverage perspective, financial leverage remained basically unchanged in the third quarter, but solvency declined. Specifically:Chart: S&P 500 non-financial sector ROE fell to 24.3% in the third quarter; Net profit margin declined, while asset turnover ratio and leverage ratio remained basically unchanged.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0eb583f51ae503018abb7f8e2e29f45f\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Excluding energy, ROE fell to 22.7% in the third quarter; Net profit margin declined, while asset turnover and leverage ratio increased slightly.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483b8f5974cdc60e81fb5a28b3ab4e6f\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department► Operating cash flow weakened, corporate bond issuance slowed down, and cash on hand decreased.Over the past 12 months, the S&P 500's non-financial and non-energy operating cash flow continued to decline year-on-year in the third quarter (3.8% in the third quarter vs. 8.3% in the second quarter). Rising financing costs amid the Federal Reserve's continued tightening efforts further slowed corporate credit bond issuance in the third quarter ($296.1 billion, down 33% year-over-year). As a result, the S&P 500's non-financial and non-energy cash on hand fell from $1.51 trillion in the second quarter to $1.48 trillion in the third quarter, and its proportion of total assets decreased to 3.8% in the third quarter (vs. 3.9% in the second quarter). Looking at different sectors, the proportion of cash on hand in total assets in consumer discretionary, communication services, and information technology all declined significantly.Chart: Non-financial operating cash flow continued to decline year-on-year (TTM) in the third quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8310746c9db520a529a467ba5b3a763\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Energy, utilities, and transportation sectors led in operating cash flow year-on-year, but consumer discretionary and capital goods sectors lagged behind year-on-year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa956efa6c9a6b5c81c3cc8108160b99\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: According to SIFMA statistics, corporate credit bond issuance reached $296.1 billion in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 32.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.9%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/320880f44c9a20dbceef3fc36061e3b2\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: SIFMA, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Non-financial cash on hand in the S&P 500 fell to $1.59 trillion in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter, with information technology and discretionary consumption still accounting for a relatively high proportion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0030b955b4da06b41a7070ed87c2726f\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Energy and information technology have the highest proportion of cash on hand to total assets, but only energy, raw materials, and healthcare saw significant increases compared to the previous quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5338234b2fa7464fff89420858f9cb96\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department► The scale of repurchases continued to decline.S&P 500 share buybacks fell from $225.7 billion in the second quarter to $196 billion in the third quarter, and their share of market capitalization decreased from 3% in the second quarter to 2.8%. However, share buybacks in the energy sector remained strong (its share of market capitalization rose from 6.1% in the second quarter to 6.4% in the third quarter), while information technology saw a decrease from 3.8% in the second quarter to 3% in the third quarter. In terms of contribution to EPS, share buybacks contributed 5.6% to recurring EPS growth in the third quarter, a significant increase from 3.3% in the second quarter; Nasdaq 100 share buybacks contributed slightly to recurring EPS growth (2.4% in the third quarter vs. 2.2% in the second quarter).Chart: Disclosed repurchase amounts continued to decline compared to the previous quarter, reaching approximately $196 billion, dropping to 2.8% of market capitalization.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0e2aea5a4feeab0897b00a48e7798bf\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Information technology accounts for 30%, discretionary consumption accounts for 16.4%, finance accounts for 12.8%, and utilities and real estate account for the lowest percentages.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3948111a95f3a55a8d40558fdf8bbece\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Buybacks contributed 5.6% to recurring EPS growth, continuing to rise from 3.3% in the second quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32c3db1cb34f6bf0e1ab874252212942\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Nasdaq 100 share buybacks contributed approximately 2.4% to recurring EPS growth, continuing to rise from 2.2% in the second quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f294fb4c3d747c910ed8b2d5298d4d59\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department► Leverage remained flat, but solvency declined.In the third quarter, the S&P 500's overall non-financial net leverage ratio (net debt/net assets) remained basically at 77% of the second quarter, as did the median net leverage ratio of individual stocks (remaining at 60% of the second quarter). However, the overall non-financial interest rate reserve ratio (EBIT/(interest expense + capitalized interest)) decreased from 11.3 in the second quarter to 10.1 in the third quarter (the median interest rate reserve ratio for individual stocks decreased from 9.6 in the second quarter to 8.9 in the third quarter). Looking at different sectors, net leverage ratios in energy, healthcare, and real estate declined in the third quarter, but information technology saw an increase.Chart: The median net leverage ratio of S&P 500 non-financial stocks remained at 60% in the third quarter compared to the second quarter; The overall net leverage ratio is also the same.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ae5b91960777c7e6475072b898eeb1e\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: The median interest rate reserve ratio for S&P 500 non-financial stocks fell from 9.6 in the second quarter to 8.9 in the third quarter, as did the overall net leverage ratio.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a0d40f107f0f30a48f0bd04498a7707\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentInventory and Investment Cycle: Entering a proactive destocking cycle; Investment increased, but this could not mask the slowdown.Enterprises have entered a phase of proactive inventory reduction, resulting in a decline in finished goods inventory.In \"The Asset Implications of Active Destocking in the United States,\" we pointed out that the United States has entered a phase of active destocking. In the third quarter, total non-financial inventories in the S&P 500 continued to rise, but inventories of raw materials, especially finished goods, have gradually declined. The year-on-year inventory growth rate has also peaked and declined (17.5% in the third quarter vs. 21.3% in the second quarter). The average profit decline (12-month dynamic EPS) during the proactive destocking phase was 7%, with the impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic being even greater.Chart: S&P 500 non-financial total inventories continued to rise in the third quarter, while raw material and finished goods inventories declined.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e815e3a3a6c3d31d6aae3022e143e9d\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: The year-on-year growth rate of total inventory peaked and declined (17.5% in the third quarter vs. 21.3% in the second quarter), as did raw materials, semi-finished products, and finished products.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d727ec32cb652c020927614463ee897c\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Looking back at historical experience, the average profit decline during the proactive destocking phase (S&P 500 12-month dynamic EPS) is around 7%, with the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic having a greater impact.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d44ed7d96d76f27ef4dce0e9def4d5b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, Haver, CICC ResearchCapital expenditures have increased, but this may not mask the overall slowdown.Non-financial capital expenditures in the S&P 500 rose 21% year-on-year in the third quarter, compared to 17% in the second quarter; Capital expenditures excluding energy were 16.4% year-on-year (vs. 14.7% in the second quarter). The absolute scale also increased, with energy, telecommunications services, utilities, technology hardware, and semiconductors being particularly noticeable. From a macroeconomic perspective, U.S. non-residential fixed asset investment actually increased by 3.2% year-on-year in the third quarter (vs. 2.4% in the second quarter), which was also higher than in the second quarter. Intangible asset and facility investment declined year-on-year, but equipment investment (5.3% year-on-year in the third quarter vs. 2.0% in the second quarter), especially information processing equipment and transportation equipment, increased significantly. This may be related to the Biden administration's promotion of the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chip and Science Act in August 2022 (\"Policy and Market Implications of the U.S. Midterm Elections\"). However, given the increasing downward pressure on US growth, corporate willingness to spend capital may be further suppressed (multiple local Federal Reserve surveys have shown that corporate asset spending expectations for the next six months have fallen again since August of this year, see \"Historical Experience of Past Recessions in the United States by review\").Chart: Capital expenditure increased year-on-year in the second quarter (21% in the third quarter vs. 16.6% in the second quarter)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dce0cc997ed9d3978e28c33f9175e91\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Non-financial and non-energy capital expenditures increased year-on-year (16.4% in Q3 vs. 14.7% in Q2)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dd6874bffc97ad18c1533a281be512c\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Capital expenditures in retail, semiconductors, and telecommunications services exceeded pre-pandemic levels in the third quarter, but there are still gaps in energy, capital goods, and consumer services.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bd00ac75b28b765f2453b4eca27039c\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Equipment investment, especially information processing equipment and transportation equipment, grew significantly in the third quarter compared to the second quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb0768ed59c5b234392551df0075d91f\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Haver, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Expectations for corporate asset spending over the next six months surveyed by several local Feds have fallen again since August of this year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685326eddb4fb4d6c5a3708058d923d8\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Wind, CICC Research DepartmentBy combining demand, capacity utilization, inventory, capital expenditure, and leverage, we found that...semiconductor(Weak demand, high inventory and investment, high leverage)media entertainment(Weak demand, high inventory and investment, low production capacity)telecommunications servicesThe pressure is greater due to weak demand, high inventory and leverage.Retail(Weak demand, high inventory) andtransportation(Demand is acceptable, but inventory, investment and leverage are higher, and production capacity is lower) is also worth noting.Chart: The year-on-year growth rate of sales revenue from telecommunications services, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, and media and entertainment in the third quarter was significantly lower than the average since 2006.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44169e5de6ab02299336490c4ca9df5b\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Compared to the average since 2006, the year-on-year inventory growth rate of semiconductors, media and entertainment, and consumer services remains relatively high.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d81c6065d3b836a99e10c2fb92f14bfb\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Capital expenditures in energy, transportation, and semiconductors remained relatively high year-on-year in the third quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b35a9dabb8cab3bf261d670a24871a\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Fixed asset turnover rates in software and services, durable consumer goods and apparel, and retail in the third quarter were significantly lower than the average since 2006.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff63c2cf442209c225630980152f64d\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Leverage ratios in consumer services, technology hardware, transportation, and semiconductors are higher than the 2006 average.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fa5ad9af8268936b20c8786a584a032\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: We find that semiconductors, media and entertainment, and telecommunications services are under greater pressure; Retail and transportation also deserve attention.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/281255e89c006f144c82054bb0a57a90\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"877\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department (red indicates higher pressure)Outlook: US stock earnings may continue to decline under recessionary pressure, with a forecast of -5% in 2023; The market may need to decline first if it wants to rise; it will face pressure from the molecular side in the second quarter.Considering that financing costs across the United States have now exceeded investment returns (for example, the real yield on investment-grade bonds exceeded the year-on-year growth rate of real GDP by 342 basis points in November; the 3M-10S interest rate spread is currently inverted by 75 basis points; high-yield bond yields once approached 10%, only 265 basis points lower than the S&P 500 ROIC; and the 30-year mortgage rate once approached 7%),Therefore, a gradual recession is likely to be a highly probable event.Based on historical experience with the inverted 3M-10S interest rate spread, recessionary pressure may occur in the first and second quarters of next year. However, based on review' experience of 18 recessions since 1920, deep recessions are generally caused by three reasons: high leverage, excessively tight monetary policy, or external shocks (\"review: The Historical Experience of Past Recessions in the United States\"). Therefore, as long as the Federal Reserve can stop its rate hike in the first quarter, the squeeze on investment returns from financing costs will not be very significant.This would prevent a very deep recession.(Looking back at historical experience, the average inversion range at 3m10s is 150bp). Against this backdrop, US stock earnings are likely to continue to decline, but the adjustment will not be significant. We currently expect profit growth in 2023 to drop to -5.5%, which is still room for decline compared to the current market expectation of 5.3%.Chart: Real Yield on Investment-Grade Bonds – Real GDP Year-on-Year Growth Rate Spread Breaks Threshold in October, Reaching 342 basis points at the End of November<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c0eaf8b19cf31e502ee35492e1e49ee\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: The 3M-10S interest rate spread began to invert in early November and is currently around 75 basis points.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4663493b53707ff32b55df93456a58e\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: The current yield on US high-yield bonds is 8.4%, with a spread of approximately 265 basis points compared to US stock ROIC.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7194ae3b39a04ab2edf5c1f584671d\" tg-width=\"845\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Current 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates are 6.5% and 5.8%, respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45b62d165bb0a8a0ad57ddd08517b423\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Current market consensus expects the S&P 500 to grow earnings by 5.7% in 2023 and 9.5% in 2024.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72291e9ae52e65e84e4514b787b5207c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research DepartmentThe still relatively high valuations, coupled with increased recessionary pressures in the first and second quarters of next year, may cause US stocks to fall first.The current 12-month dynamic P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 17.7, higher than the historical average of 16.2 since 1990. The current tapering of tightening and the elimination of upside risks in US Treasury yields have provided support for US stocks in terms of interest rates and risk appetite. However, with increased recessionary pressure in the second quarter of next year, it may not be possible to immediately receive compensation from the denominator. After market volatility may force expectations of easing, the rapid decline in US Treasury yields may gradually bring greater allocation opportunities to growth stocks (\"Extrapolating the Three Stages of Federal Reserve Policy and Asset Rotation\"). Assuming the equity risk premium rises to the 10-year US Treasury yields of 2.7% and ~3.8%, respectively, corresponding to the lows at the end of September, the S&P 500 is reasonably valued at ~15 times. Our reasonable valuations based on growth and liquidity calculations are also roughly equivalent (a 48% ISM manufacturing PMI and a 10-year US Treasury yields of ~3.8% correspond to a reasonable valuation of 14.5 to 15 times), and the implied support level is 10 to 15% lower than currently. However, we expect the year-end level to be ~5% higher than the current level (\"Overseas Market Outlook 2023: A Decline May Be Needed First for a Rise\").Chart: The S&P 500's 12-month dynamic valuation is 17.7 times, higher than the average since 1990.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e919e36f5057d48920d53f3e12032741\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: The S&P 500's implied equity risk premium has fallen to a relatively low level of 2.2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c52c6a82a20cef03f58e038ead2090\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: S&P 500 earnings sentiment has continued to decline since turning negative in mid-June this year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a9dba718fdc93dd15b49376d1054d05\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: After market volatility in the second quarter of next year may force expectations of easing, the rapid decline in US Treasury yields may gradually bring greater allocation opportunities to growth stocks.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78374f5487af7a39f1cc2b32d46b82da\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research DepartmentChart: The current implied support level for the S&P 500 is 10-15% lower than the current level. However, we expect the year-end level to be ~5% higher than currently.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2abe0bef81f5c05679b06f9a48ed55\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department (red indicates higher pressure)</body></html>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195902581","content_text":"美股2022年三季度业绩进一步放缓，基本接近零增长。持续加大的增长压力下美股盈利前景如何，对美股后续走势有何影响，本文中我们将重点分析。增长趋势：盈利继续放缓，逼近零增长；能源和交运是主要贡献，金融与科技拖累较大三季度美股盈利继续趋弱，逼近零增长。可比口径下，标普500三季度EPS同比仅增长0.6%（非金融4.9%），较二季度2.9%继续回落（非金融10.5%）。纳斯达克100三季度EPS同比-1%，较二季度-5.1%改善。标普500超预期幅度较二季度2.9%回落至1.9%（疫情前均值为5.4%），超预期占比也从二季度76%降至70%（疫情前均值71%）。整体看，高成本和低需求下，美股盈利进一步放缓也在预期之中。图表：可比口径下，三季度标普500指数EPS同比增长0.6%，较二季度2.9%继续回落资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：纳斯达克100指数EPS同比-1%，较上季度抬升资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：三季度标普500指数盈利超预期幅度较上季度继续回落（三季度1.9% vs. 二季度2.9%），但超预期公司数占比仍达70%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：信息科技、工业、必需消费、医疗保健仍有超过75%公司超预期；超预期幅度上，能源、医疗保健、必需消费最高资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部能源和交运是主要贡献；金融承压，医药、半导体及互联网同样放缓。受低基数和油价反弹驱动（布油三季度均价 98美元/桶 vs. 去年三季度73美元/桶），能源、消费者服务、交通运输EPS同比增速分别达152%、149%和68%，汽车与零部件、房地产等增速也位居前列（40%、39%）。相比之下，金融承压，三季度EPS同比-19%（vs. 二季度-26%）。四大银行（美国银行、花旗银行、摩根大通、富国银行）贷款损失三季度升至46亿美元，贷款需求放缓叠加投行业务疲软也拖累利润。此外，原材料、保险、生物制药、耐用品及服装、半导体及媒体娱乐增速也回落明显。从贡献程度看，能源（4.1ppt）、可选消费（1.2ppt）、交通运输（1.1ppt）是主要贡献，通讯服务、多元金融、保险拖累明显。图表：三季度能源、消费者服务、交通运输盈利同比依然大幅领先，保险、媒体与娱乐等落后资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：相比二季度，零售、房地产、银行盈利增速抬升，但原材料、保险、生物制药等回落资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：三季度标普500 0.6%的EPS同比增速中，能源及可选消费贡献4.1和1.2ppt，通讯服务、多元金融、保险拖累2.5、1.3、1.2ppt资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：纳斯达克100指数-1%的EPS同比增速中，医疗保健、信息科技、通讯服务拖累明显，分别达-1.2、-1.1和-0.9ppt资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部值得一提的是，作为美股龙头的科技企业盈利连续五个季度回落并已转负，主要受弱需求、强美元、高通胀“三重压力”，管理层表示通过放缓招聘和裁员控制成本。英特尔、英伟达、META科技龙头三季度业绩表现均不及预期，三季度净利润同比分别下滑89%、72%、52%。此外，由于科技龙头海外收入占比较高（FAAMNG平均53% vs. 标普500 39%），强美元也造成负面影响。FAAMNG净利润占标普500非金融比例也从2020年末的27%降至三季度的17.7%。许多公司表示将放缓招聘或裁员以控制成本，英特尔提出了百亿美元的成本削减方案。图表：美股科技龙头三季度业绩情况一览资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部（海外收入占比为截至2021年末各公司除美国外海外收入占比）图表：美股科技龙头（FAAMNG）市值占比已从2020年9月24.2%的高位回落至18.6%资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：FAAMNG标普500指数表现与美国金融条件有明显负相关性资料来源：Bloomberg，FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：FAAMNG收入占标普500非金融比例从2021年9月10.7%高位回落至三季度10.4%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：FAAMNG净利润占标普500非金融比例从2020年末27%的高位回落至三季度的17.7%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度FAAMNG收入同比10.2%，低于2006年以来20%的均值资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度FAAMNG净利润同比-12.6%，低于2006年以来23%的均值资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部需求与成本分析：高成本继续挤压利润率，需求回落下库存偏低行业议价能力更强需求降温下收入继续回落，高成本继续挤压利润率。标普500三季收入同比增长9.3%（非金融9.6%），较二季度10.5%（非金融11.7%）继续回落。分板块看，相比二季度，汽车与零部件抬升明显，但生物制药及半导体显著回落。与此同时，高成本继续挤压净利润率，标普500三季度净利润率11.3%，较二季度11.7%继续回落；非金融净利润率同样从二季度的11.3%回落至三季度的11%。扣除能源板块后，三季度净利润率已回落至10.3%（vs. 二季度的10.6%）。分板块看，消费者服务、家庭个人用品、公用事业板块抬升明显，但软件与服务、原材料、媒体娱乐显著回落。图表：三季度标普500指数非金融收入同比回落至9.6%，与名义GDP增速回落趋势基本一致资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：相比二季度，三季度能源、交通运输、原材料收入增速回落明显，资本品、公用事业抬升资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：三季度标普500指数非金融板块净利润率回落至11%，非金融非能源净利润率回落至10.3%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：消费者服务、家庭个人用品、公用事业净利润率抬升明显，但软件与服务、媒体娱乐、原材料显著回落资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部库存偏低行业仍能依靠涨价来缓解利润端压力。例如，半导体由于库存偏高，需求趋弱下议价能力不足，销售收入明显下滑，利率端同样持续承压（三季度毛利率49.9% vs. 二季度51%，2013年以来均值52.5%；净利润率较二季度的22.3%继续回落至21.7%）。反观汽车与零部件，由于库存依然不足，企业仍可通过提价来维持利润（三季度毛利率升至14.6%，2013年以来均值12.3%；净利润率抬升至5.9%，2013年以来均值4.1%）。但我们预计明年真实衰退压力逐步放大后整体需求的趋弱也会逐渐侵蚀其盈利能力。图表：三季度库存依然偏高的半导体板块销售收入已经下滑，且毛利率继续回落资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度库存依然不足的汽车与零部件板块销售收入继续抬升，毛利率维持稳定资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部增长质量：发债放缓、现金流与在手现金回落；回购减少；杠杆持平但偿付能力下降增长质量看，三季度标普500非金融ROE从二季度的24.9%降至24.3%（受净利润率下滑拖累），非金融非能源ROE继续走低（22.7% vs. 二季度23%）。现金流量表上，三季度信用债发行趋缓，经营现金流与在手现金减少；回购回落，资本开支抬升。杠杆角度，三季度财务杠杆基本维持不变，但偿付能力下降。具体来看：图表：三季度标普500非金融板块ROE回落至24.3%；净利润率回落、资产周转率及杠杆率基本不变资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：扣除能源后，三季度ROE回落至22.7%；净利润率回落，资产周转率及杠杆率略有抬升资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部► 经营性现金流趋弱，信用债发行趋缓，在手现金减少。过去12个月口径，三季度标普500非金融非能源经营性现金流同比继续回落（三季度3.8% vs. 二季度8.3%）。美联储持续紧缩下融资成本抬升使得三季度企业信用债发行进一步放缓（2961亿美元，同比回落33%）。受此影响，标普500非金融非能源在手现金规模从二季度的1.51万亿美元回落至三季度的1.48万亿美元，占总资产比例降至三季度3.8%（vs. 二季度3.9%）。分板块看，可选消费、通讯服务及信息科技在手现金占总资产比例均回落明显。图表：三季度非金融板块经营性现金流同比（TTM）继续回落资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：能源、公用事业、交通运输板块经营性现金流同比领先，但可选消费、资本品同比落后资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：根据SIFMA统计，三季度企业信用债发行规模2961亿美元，同比回落32.9%，环比回落3.9%资料来源：SIFMA，中金公司研究部图表：三季度标普500非金融在手现金较上季度回落至1.59万亿美元，其中信息科技、可选消费仍占比较高资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：能源、信息科技在手现金占总资产比例最高，但仅能源、原材料、医疗保健较上季度抬升明显资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部► 回购规模继续回落。标普500回购从二季度的2257亿美元降至三季度1960亿美元，占市值比例从二季度3%降至2.8%。不过，能源板块回购依然较强（占市值比例从二季度的6.1%升至三季度的6.4%），但信息科技则从二季度3.8%降至三季度的3%。对EPS贡献上，三季度回购对经常性EPS增速贡献5.6%，较二季度3.3%抬升明显；纳斯达克100回购对经常性EPS增速贡献略有抬升（三季度2.4% vs. 二季度2.2%）。图表：已披露的回购金额较上季度继续回落，约1960亿美元，占市值比例降至2.8%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：信息技术占30%、可选消费占16.4%、金融占12.8%，公用事业及房地产占比最低资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：回购对经常性EPS增速贡献5.6%，较二季度的3.3%继续抬升资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：纳斯达克100回购对经常性EPS增速贡献约2.4%，较二季度的2.2%继续抬升资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部► 杠杆持平，但偿付能力下降。三季度标普500非金融整体净杠杆率（净债务/净资产）基本维持在二季度的77%，个股净杠杆率中值亦是如此（维持在二季度的60%）；但非金融整体利率备付率（EBIT/（利息费用+资本化利息））从二季度11.3降至三季度10.1（个股利息备付率中值从二季度的9.6降至三季度的8.9）。分板块看，能源、医疗保健及房地产三季度净杠杆率有所回落，但信息科技有所抬升。图表：三季度标普500非金融个股净杠杆率中位数维持在二季度的60%；整体净杠杆率亦是如此资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度标普500非金融个股利率备付率中值从二季度的9.6降至三季度的8.9，整体净杠杆率亦是如此资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部库存与投资周期：进入主动去库周期；投资增加但难掩放缓格局企业进入主动去库阶段，产成品库存回落。我们在《美国主动去库存的资产含义》中指出美国已进入主动去库存阶段。三季度标普500非金融总库存继续抬升，但原材料尤其是产成品库存已逐步回落；库存同比增速也已见顶下行（三季度17.5% vs. 二季度21.3%）。主动去库存阶段盈利下调幅度（12个月动态EPS）平均为7%，2008年金融危机和2020年疫情造成的影响更大。图表：三季度标普500非金融总库存规模继续抬升，原材料和产成品库存回落资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：总库存同比增速见顶回落（三季度17.5% vs. 二季度21.3%），原材料、半成品及产成品亦是如此资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：回顾历史经验，主动去库存阶段盈利下调幅度（标普500指数12个月动态EPS）平均在7%左右，2008年金融危机和2020年疫情造成的影响更大资料来源：FactSet，Haver，中金公司研究部资本开支抬升，但或难掩整体放缓格局。三季度标普500非金融资本开支同比21%，较二季度17%抬升；扣除能源后资本开支同比16.4%（vs.二季度14.7%）。绝对规模同样抬升，能源、电信服务、公用事业、科技硬件、半导体等较为明显。从宏观指标看，三季度美国非住宅固定资产投资实际同比增长3.2%（vs.二季度2.4%），规模较二季度同样走高，其中无形资产和设施投资同比回落，但设备投资（三季度同比5.3%vs.二季度2.0%），尤其是信息处理设备与运输设备抬升明显，这可能与2022年8月拜登政府分别通过通胀削减法案及芯片与科学法案的促进有关（《美国中期选举的政策与市场含义》）。不过，考虑到美国增长下滑压力加大，企业资本开支意愿也可能进一步受到抑制（多个地方联储调查未来6个月企业资产开支预期自今年8月以来再度回落，《复盘美国历次衰退的历史经验》）。图表：资本开支同比较二季度抬升（三季度21% vs. 二季度16.6%）资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：非金融非能源资本开支同比抬升（三季度16.4% vs. 二季度14.7%）资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度零售、半导体、电信服务资本开支规模超过疫情前水平，但能源、资本品、消费者服务等仍有差距资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度设备投资，尤其是信息处理设备以及运输设备增速较二季度抬升明显资料来源：Haver，中金公司研究部图表：多个地方联储调查的未来6个月企业资产开支预期自今年8月以来再度回落资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部综合需求、产能利用率，库存、资本开支以及杠杆情况进行打分，我们发现半导体（需求弱、库存与投资高、杠杆高）、媒体娱乐（需求弱、库存及投资高、产能低）、电信服务（需求弱、库存及杠杆高）压力更大；零售（需求弱、库存高）和交通运输（需求尚可、但库存、投资及杠杆更高，且产能较低）同样值得关注。图表：三季度电信服务、生物科技与制药、媒体与娱乐销售收入同比增速显著低于2006年以来均值资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：相比2006年以来均值，半导体、媒体娱乐、消费者服务等库存同比增速依然较高资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度能源、交通运输、半导体等资本开支同比增速依然较高资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度软件与服务、耐用消费品与服装、零售等固定资产周转率显著低于2006年以来均值资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：消费者服务、科技硬件、运输、半导体等杠杆率较2006年均值更高资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：我们发现半导体、媒体娱乐、电信服务压力更大；零售和交通运输也值得关注资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部（偏红则表示压力更高）前景展望：衰退压力下美股盈利或继续下调，预计2023年-5%；市场欲扬或需先抑，二季度承受分子端压力考虑到当前美国全线的融资成本都已经超过投资回报率（例如投资级债券实际收益率11月超过实际GDP同比增速342bp；3m10s利差当前倒挂75bp；高收益债利率一度逼近10%，仅低于标普500 ROIC 265bp；30年期房贷利率一度接近7%），因此逐步走向衰退可能是大概率事件。根据3m10s利差倒挂历史经验，衰退压力可能在明年一二季度。不过，通过复盘1920年以来18轮衰退经验，深度衰退一般是由高杠杆、过紧的货币政策、或者外部冲击这三个原因造成（《复盘美国历次衰退的历史经验》），因此只要美联储能够在一季度停止加息，融资成本对投资回报率的挤压就不至于很明显，也就不至于造成非常深度的衰退（回顾历史经验，3m10s平均倒挂幅度150bp）。这一背景下，美股盈利大概率继续回落，但调整幅度不至于很大。当前我们预计2023年盈利增速或降至-5.5%，较当前市场预期的5.3%仍有下行空间。图表：投资级债券实际收益率   – 实际GDP同比增速利差10月突破阈值，11月末达342bp资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：3m10s利差于11月初开始倒挂，当前已倒挂~75bp资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：当前美国高收益债收益率8.4%，与美股ROIC利差约265bp资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：当前30年期及15年期抵押贷款利率分别达6.5%和5.8%资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：当前市场一致预期标普500指数2023年盈利增速5.7%，2024年9.5%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部现在仍不便宜的估值叠加明年一二季度衰退压力增加，可能使美股欲扬先抑。当前标普500 12个月动态P/E为17.7倍，高于1990年以来16.2倍的历史均值。当前紧缩退坡和美债利率上行风险消除给美股提供了利率和风险偏好支撑。但明年二季度衰退压力增加下可能无法立刻得到分母端的补偿，市场波动可能倒逼出宽松预期后，美债利率的快速回落可能逐步给成长股带来更大配置时机（《推演美联储政策与资产轮动的三个阶段》）。假设股权风险溢价升至9月末低点对应的2.7%和~3.8%的10年美债利率，标普500合理估值为~15倍。我们基于增长和流动性测算的合理估值也大体相当（48%的ISM制造业PMI与~3.8%的10年美债利率对应合理估值14.5~15倍），隐含支撑位较当前低10~15%。但我们预计年底点位比当前高~5%（《海外市场2023年展望：欲扬或需先抑》。）图表：标普500指数12个月动态估值17.7倍，高于1990年以来均值资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：标普500指数隐含股权风险溢价已回落至2.2%的相对低位资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：标普500指数盈利调情绪自今年6月中旬转负后持续回落资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：明年二季度市场波动可能倒逼出宽松预期后，美债利率的快速回落可能逐步给成长股带来更大配置时机资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：当前标普500指数隐含支撑位较当前低10~15%。但我们预计年底点位比当前高~5%资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部（偏红则表示压力更高）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5704,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":105093838,"commentId":"105093838","gmtCreate":1670340266909,"gmtModify":1670340280922,"authorId":3574387078391491,"author":{"id":3574387078391491,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorId":3574387078391491,"name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967246370,"objectIdStr":"9967246370","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"[捂脸]","text":"[捂脸]","html":"[捂脸]","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}