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披着牛皮的雷熊
2023-04-12

[惊讶]

12 blockbuster charts from Wall Street's most accurate analysts: All signs point to a recession

美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，当前的制造业指数、就业情况、信贷紧缩、油价及地产等等数据均指向衰退，但投资者并未重视且低估了即将到来的衰退对美股的挑战。

12 blockbuster charts from Wall Street's most accurate analysts: All signs point to a recession

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":9942478603,"tweetId":"9942478603","gmtCreate":1681294806603,"gmtModify":1681294811888,"author":{"id":4088423044176710,"idStr":"4088423044176710","authorId":4088423044176710,"authorIdStr":"4088423044176710","name":"披着牛皮的雷熊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf21af481bf46a359c6aa7128b04788a","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":15,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body>[惊讶]&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>[惊讶]&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"[惊讶]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942478603","repostId":2326997706,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2326997706","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1681288550,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2326997706?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-12 16:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"12 blockbuster charts from Wall Street's most accurate analysts: All signs point to a recession","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2326997706","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，当前的制造业指数、就业情况、信贷紧缩、油价及地产等等数据均指向衰退，但投资者并未重视且低估了即将到来的衰退对美股的挑战。","content":"<html><head></head><body>Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett believes that the current manufacturing index, employment situation, credit crunch, oil price and real estate data all point to recession, but investors have not paid attention to and underestimated the challenge of the upcoming recession to U.S. stocks. A U.S. recession is looming, but investors are focusing on the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, underestimating the challenge of the recession to U.S. stocks.The team led by Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett, the most accurate analyst on Wall Street since last year, said in a latest report that the current manufacturing index, employment situation, bank credit environment, earnings per share and real estate, etc. The data all point to a recession, but investors don't pay attention to it.Hartnett believes investors should sell U.S. stocks at the Fed's last rate hike or near the end of the rate hike, rather than after the end of the rate hike:Based on the experience of the 1970s and 1980s, during those two decades, U.S. stocks fell within three months of the end of each rate hike cycle. In eight of the past 10 recessions, the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20%. 1. The U.S. ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to 46.3 in March, shrinking for five consecutive months and hitting a new low since May 2020.Bank of America pointed out that over the past 70 years,There were 12 times when the ISM Manufacturing Index was below 45, 11 of which were a recession(except 1967).More importantly, the ISM non-manufacturing index is 51.2, which is the fourth worst level since the global financial crisis in 2008.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c847f24aeb79ddf8cd4a68590042cd27\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"404\"/>2. The U.S. ISM manufacturing new orders index in March was 44.3, which was in the contraction range. Bank of America pointed out that,When the new orders index is < 45, it means that the S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) will begin to decline and the economy will enter a recession(See 1991, 2001, 2008, 2020).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c847f24aeb79ddf8cd4a68590042cd27\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"404\"/>3. Global earnings per share are expected to decline by 10-15% year-on-year in the second half of 2023.According to the current forecast of Bank of America's global EPS growth model, through August this year, EPS will decline 16% year-over-year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dafb784838c6bb8a25d70ad4e9f5bf62\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"393\"/>The inversion of the 4.2-year/10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield curve is slowing down, which can further confirm the U.S. recession.The degree of inversion of the 2-year/10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield curve has been tempered by expectations of a recession.In the last 4 weeks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/US10Y.BOND\">US 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield</a>With the 2-year Treasury Bond yield inverted from the previous 110 basis points to 50 basis points, when the recession begins, short-term interest rates will fall due to market expectations that the Fed will begin to pivot.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fcca1fa40e968a3e955fdb3f0ef8beb\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"387\"/>5. Opec + production cuts did not boost oil prices, confirming an economic recession.Historically, oil prices have risen during recessions and fallen during recessions, and OPEC + 's surprise production cuts have not sent oil prices soaring，This is another sign of a recession.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52151a0d320068cc0eb3d0345b949eac\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"408\"/>6. Weak March ISM manufacturing index will make the U.S. labor market more pessimisticThe weak March ISM manufacturing index indicates that the U.S. labor market will weaken in the coming months; Bank of America pointed out,Historically, the ISM manufacturing index < 45 will coincide with a decline in non-farm payrolls and a recession in the United States.Bank of America believes that U.S. non-farm payrolls will grow strongly by 311,000 in February 2023, higher than market expectations of 240,000.The last strong jobs report of 2023.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32c7688733d5737a0bf49b7e385ca8a0\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"396\"/>7. The global decline in housing prices is further proof of the economic recession.With interest rates soaring in various countries, house prices in European countries fell by an average of 1.5% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2022, the first decline since 2015; New Zealand house prices plummeted 13.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year; U.S. house prices fell for the sixth consecutive month, down 4.4% from the peak in June last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db1a0ba6580f29c0ab40be5fbfc8dd4f\" tg-width=\"677\" tg-height=\"397\"/>8. The credit crunch in the United States will further weaken the labor market.Bank of America has been tightening standards for lending to small companies over the past few months. Bank lending in the United States fell sharply in late March, when the banking crisis fermented, hitting a record two-week decline.According to Steno Research, there is growing evidence that the banking stress triggered by SVB will indeed turn into a recession, but not a rapid liquidity-driven recession, but a slow one triggered by a credit crunch. The agency believes that the probability of a U.S. recession in the third quarter of 2023 is greater than 75%.Bank of America points out that the intensification of credit crunch is highly correlated with small business employment demand(American small businesses create nearly 2/3 of the jobs created in the United States).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb9f7c2467671d4257b898504422d19c\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"410\"/>9. European bank lending is contracting and a recession is coming.Bank loans in the euro zone have declined for three consecutive months. Bank of America pointed out that the euro zone economy is highly dependent on bank credit, and about 85% of corporate funds are obtained through bank loans. Therefore, the decline in bank loans means that recession is approaching.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1e792b47604c9c981e9b654e1622d86\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"403\"/>10. The trend of the U.S. labor market means that a recession has begun, and a weak labor market will allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sharply.The number of JOLTS job vacancies in the United States fell below 10 million for the first time in nearly two years in February, a drop of more than 2 million from the peak of 12 million in March 2023.Bank of America points out that this situation means: U.S. job vacancies fall-> labor market weakness-> Fed rate cuts<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b218a1f134dd1090741c7aa6a3e7137\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"405\"/>11. Investors should sell U.S. stocks during the Fed's last rate hike, or near the end of the Fed's rate hike.The team led by Hartnett suggested that investors should sell U.S. stocks at the Fed's last rate hike or near the end of the Fed's rate hike, rather than after the end of the rate hike. The team believes that this is based on the experience of the 1970s and 1980s, when U.S. stocks fell within three months of the end of each rate hike cycle during those two decades.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd056ee3a5ec9d538e29f898c67557ae\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"360\"/>12. Stock declines and recessionsBank of America's global equity derivatives research team believes that historical recessions have indeed had a negative impact on equities:There is more downside for the current S&P 500 index. Since 1929, two-thirds of the S&P 500's peak-to-low decline has occurred during the U.S. recession. In eight of the past 10 recessions, the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32bf5cd28459b7d644138a3e619be858\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"412\"/></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>12 blockbuster charts from Wall Street's most accurate analysts: All signs point to a recession</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n12 blockbuster charts from Wall Street's most accurate analysts: All signs point to a recession\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2023-04-12 16:35\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett believes that the current manufacturing index, employment situation, credit crunch, oil price and real estate data all point to recession, but investors have not paid attention to and underestimated the challenge of the upcoming recession to U.S. stocks. A U.S. recession is looming, but investors are focusing on the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, underestimating the challenge of the recession to U.S. stocks.The team led by Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett, the most accurate analyst on Wall Street since last year, said in a latest report that the current manufacturing index, employment situation, bank credit environment, earnings per share and real estate, etc. The data all point to a recession, but investors don't pay attention to it.Hartnett believes investors should sell U.S. stocks at the Fed's last rate hike or near the end of the rate hike, rather than after the end of the rate hike:Based on the experience of the 1970s and 1980s, during those two decades, U.S. stocks fell within three months of the end of each rate hike cycle. In eight of the past 10 recessions, the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20%. 1. The U.S. ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to 46.3 in March, shrinking for five consecutive months and hitting a new low since May 2020.Bank of America pointed out that over the past 70 years,There were 12 times when the ISM Manufacturing Index was below 45, 11 of which were a recession(except 1967).More importantly, the ISM non-manufacturing index is 51.2, which is the fourth worst level since the global financial crisis in 2008.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c847f24aeb79ddf8cd4a68590042cd27\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"404\"/>2. The U.S. ISM manufacturing new orders index in March was 44.3, which was in the contraction range. Bank of America pointed out that,When the new orders index is < 45, it means that the S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) will begin to decline and the economy will enter a recession(See 1991, 2001, 2008, 2020).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c847f24aeb79ddf8cd4a68590042cd27\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"404\"/>3. Global earnings per share are expected to decline by 10-15% year-on-year in the second half of 2023.According to the current forecast of Bank of America's global EPS growth model, through August this year, EPS will decline 16% year-over-year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dafb784838c6bb8a25d70ad4e9f5bf62\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"393\"/>The inversion of the 4.2-year/10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield curve is slowing down, which can further confirm the U.S. recession.The degree of inversion of the 2-year/10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield curve has been tempered by expectations of a recession.In the last 4 weeks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/US10Y.BOND\">US 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield</a>With the 2-year Treasury Bond yield inverted from the previous 110 basis points to 50 basis points, when the recession begins, short-term interest rates will fall due to market expectations that the Fed will begin to pivot.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fcca1fa40e968a3e955fdb3f0ef8beb\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"387\"/>5. Opec + production cuts did not boost oil prices, confirming an economic recession.Historically, oil prices have risen during recessions and fallen during recessions, and OPEC + 's surprise production cuts have not sent oil prices soaring，This is another sign of a recession.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52151a0d320068cc0eb3d0345b949eac\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"408\"/>6. Weak March ISM manufacturing index will make the U.S. labor market more pessimisticThe weak March ISM manufacturing index indicates that the U.S. labor market will weaken in the coming months; Bank of America pointed out,Historically, the ISM manufacturing index < 45 will coincide with a decline in non-farm payrolls and a recession in the United States.Bank of America believes that U.S. non-farm payrolls will grow strongly by 311,000 in February 2023, higher than market expectations of 240,000.The last strong jobs report of 2023.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32c7688733d5737a0bf49b7e385ca8a0\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"396\"/>7. The global decline in housing prices is further proof of the economic recession.With interest rates soaring in various countries, house prices in European countries fell by an average of 1.5% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2022, the first decline since 2015; New Zealand house prices plummeted 13.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year; U.S. house prices fell for the sixth consecutive month, down 4.4% from the peak in June last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db1a0ba6580f29c0ab40be5fbfc8dd4f\" tg-width=\"677\" tg-height=\"397\"/>8. The credit crunch in the United States will further weaken the labor market.Bank of America has been tightening standards for lending to small companies over the past few months. Bank lending in the United States fell sharply in late March, when the banking crisis fermented, hitting a record two-week decline.According to Steno Research, there is growing evidence that the banking stress triggered by SVB will indeed turn into a recession, but not a rapid liquidity-driven recession, but a slow one triggered by a credit crunch. The agency believes that the probability of a U.S. recession in the third quarter of 2023 is greater than 75%.Bank of America points out that the intensification of credit crunch is highly correlated with small business employment demand(American small businesses create nearly 2/3 of the jobs created in the United States).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb9f7c2467671d4257b898504422d19c\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"410\"/>9. European bank lending is contracting and a recession is coming.Bank loans in the euro zone have declined for three consecutive months. Bank of America pointed out that the euro zone economy is highly dependent on bank credit, and about 85% of corporate funds are obtained through bank loans. Therefore, the decline in bank loans means that recession is approaching.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1e792b47604c9c981e9b654e1622d86\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"403\"/>10. The trend of the U.S. labor market means that a recession has begun, and a weak labor market will allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sharply.The number of JOLTS job vacancies in the United States fell below 10 million for the first time in nearly two years in February, a drop of more than 2 million from the peak of 12 million in March 2023.Bank of America points out that this situation means: U.S. job vacancies fall-> labor market weakness-> Fed rate cuts<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b218a1f134dd1090741c7aa6a3e7137\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"405\"/>11. Investors should sell U.S. stocks during the Fed's last rate hike, or near the end of the Fed's rate hike.The team led by Hartnett suggested that investors should sell U.S. stocks at the Fed's last rate hike or near the end of the Fed's rate hike, rather than after the end of the rate hike. The team believes that this is based on the experience of the 1970s and 1980s, when U.S. stocks fell within three months of the end of each rate hike cycle during those two decades.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd056ee3a5ec9d538e29f898c67557ae\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"360\"/>12. Stock declines and recessionsBank of America's global equity derivatives research team believes that historical recessions have indeed had a negative impact on equities:There is more downside for the current S&P 500 index. Since 1929, two-thirds of the S&P 500's peak-to-low decline has occurred during the U.S. recession. In eight of the past 10 recessions, the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32bf5cd28459b7d644138a3e619be858\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"412\"/></body></html>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686292\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c98541a89b0218de5ba61a7a938cf4d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686292","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2326997706","content_text":"美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，当前的制造业指数、就业情况、信贷紧缩、油价及地产等等数据均指向衰退，但投资者并未重视且低估了即将到来的衰退对美股的挑战。美国经济衰退正在逼近，但投资者正将注意力放在美联储降息的时机上，低估了衰退对美股的挑战。自去年以来华尔街预测最准确的分析师、美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett领导的团队在最新的一份报告中表示，当前的制造业指数、就业情况、银行信贷环境、每股收益及房地产等等数据均指向衰退，但投资者并未重视。Hartnett认为投资者应该在美联储最后一次加息时或加息接近结束时就抛售美股，而不是在加息结束之后才抛售：根据1970和80年代的经验得出的结论，在那二十年中，每次加息周期结束的三个月内，美股都在下跌。在过去10次经济衰退中，有8次标普500跌幅超过20%。1.美国3月ISM制造业指数意外降至46.3，连续五个月萎缩，创2020年5月以来新低。美银指出，在过去70年间，存在12次ISM制造业指数低于45的情况，其中有11次发生了衰退（1967年除外）。更重要的是，ISM非制造业指数为51.2，这一数字是2008年全球金融危机以来第4糟糕的水平。2. 美国3月ISM制造业新订单指数为44.3，处于收缩区间，美银指出，当新订单指数<45意味着标普500每股收益（EPS）将开始下降，经济步入衰退（参见 1991、2001、2008、2020年）。3. 预计2023年下半年全球每股收益同比下降10-15%。根据美国银行全球每股收益增长模型目前的预测，截至今年8月，每股收益将同比下降16%。4.2年/10年期美国国债收益率曲线倒挂程度正放缓，这可以进一步确认美国经济衰退。2年/10年期美国国债收益率曲线倒挂程度因经济衰退的预期而变得平和。过去4周内美国10年期国债收益率与2年期国债收益率从此前的倒挂110个基点，变为50个基点，当经济衰退开始时，由于市场预期美联储将开始转向，短期利率会下降。5.Opec+减产并未提振油价，证实经济衰退。从历史上看，油价会在衰退期间上涨并在衰退期间下跌，OPEC+的突袭减产并未使油价飙升，这是另一个经济衰退的迹象。6. 疲软的3月ISM制造业指数将使美国劳动力市场更加悲观疲软的3月ISM制造业指数，表明美国劳动力市场将在未来几个月走弱；美银指出，从历史上看，ISM制造业采指数< 45会与非农就业人数下滑及美国经济衰退同时发生。美银认为，2023年2月美国非农就业人数强劲增长31.1万，高于24万的市场预期，2023年最后一份强劲的就业报告。7. 全球房价下跌进一步证明经济衰退。随着各国利率飙升，欧洲各国房价在2022年第四季度平均环比下降1.5％，为2015年以来首次下跌；新西兰房价今年一季度同比暴跌13.3%；美国房价连续第六个月环比下跌，较去年6月峰值累跌4.4%。8. 美国的信贷紧缩将进一步削弱劳动力市场。过去几个月，美国银行一直在收紧对小公司的贷款标准。美国银行借贷在银行业危机发酵的3月下旬出现巨额跌幅，创历史最高两周下降纪录。Steno Research表示，越来越多的证据表明，由 SVB 引发的银行业压力确实会演变成一场衰退，但不是一场迅速的流动性驱动的衰退，而是由信贷紧缩引发的缓慢衰退。该机构认为，2023 年第三季度美国经济衰退的可能性大于75%。美银指出，信贷紧缩加剧与小企业用工需求高度相关（美国小企业创造了为美国创造了近2/3的就业机会）。9. 欧洲银行贷款正在收缩，衰退正在到来。欧元区银行贷款连续3个月下降，美银指出，欧元区经济高度依赖银行信贷，约有85%的企业资金通过银行贷款获得，因此银行贷款规模下降意味着衰退逼近。10.美国劳动力市场的走势意味着衰退开始，疲软的劳动力市场将允许美联储大幅降息。美国2月JOLTS职位空缺数近两年里首次跌破1000万，从2023年3月1200万峰值下降了200万以上。美银指出，这一情况意味着：美国职位空缺下降—>劳动力市场疲软 —> 美联储降息11. 在美联储最后一次加息时，或者美联储加息接近结束时投资者应该抛售美股。Hartnett领导的团队建议，投资者应该在美联储最后一次加息时或者美联储加息接近结束时就抛售美股，而不是在加息结束之后才抛售。该团队认为，这是根据1970和80年代的经验得出的结论，在那二十年中，每次加息周期结束的三个月内，美股都在下跌。12. 股票的跌幅与衰退美国银行的全球股票衍生品研究团队认为，历史上的经济衰退对股票影响确实是负面的：当前标普500指数还有更多下行空间，自1929年以来，标普500从峰值到低点的下跌情况中，有三分之二发生在美国经济衰退期间。在过去10次经济衰退中，有8次标普500跌幅超过20%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.89,"ESmain":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"QLD":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"DXD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2440,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}