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请叫我骨神
2022-09-26

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Is the foreign exchange market "monstrous waves", and the US dollar is rising like this just because of the interest rate spread?

拜登政府最终将被迫为美元的强势上涨踩下刹车。

Is the foreign exchange market "monstrous waves", and the US dollar is rising like this just because of the interest rate spread?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":9911957205,"tweetId":"9911957205","gmtCreate":1664123470408,"gmtModify":1676537393507,"author":{"id":3583374014261173,"idStr":"3583374014261173","authorId":3583374014261173,"authorIdStr":"3583374014261173","name":"请叫我骨神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/503b4d06061954e26664c0601cf2936e","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body>Nice</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Nice</body></html>","text":"Nice","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911957205","repostId":1180307266,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180307266","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664003266,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1180307266?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-24 15:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the foreign exchange market \"monstrous waves\", and the US dollar is rising like this just because of the interest rate spread?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180307266","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"拜登政府最终将被迫为美元的强势上涨踩下刹车。","content":"<html><head></head><body>At the Jackson Hole meeting in August, the hawkish signal released by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, coupled with the CPI data in August, all hinted at the need to tighten policy, which made the market uneasy.The foreign exchange market also responded accordingly: the yen once rose to 131 against the US dollar in early August due to expectations that the Federal Reserve would ease policy, but after Powell's speech, the yen exchange rate once plummeted to nearly 145.Foreign exchange market volatility in 2022 will be much more violent than before, especially compared with the administration of US President Trump. So why is the foreign exchange market, which was almost unresponsive to spreads during the Trump administration, so sensitive to them now?In a research report released on Wednesday, Gu Chaoming, chief economist of Nomura Securities Research Institute, pointed out that this increase in volatility can be attributed to two main factors: the most intuitive is the major change in the macroeconomic environment represented by the return of inflation. shift, and another more potential factor is the shift in U.S. government priorities.Trump's commitment to reducing the U.S. trade deficit has led to an increase in the proportion of trade-related demand in yen demand, thus reducing the sensitivity of the exchange rate to interest rate spreads. However, Biden's low emphasis on trade imbalances has gradually restored the foreign exchange market's high sensitivity to interest rate spreads.As a trade deficit country, once the United States decides to focus on correcting the trade imbalance, the foreign exchange market will undergo major changes. Traders who previously focused almost exclusively on interest rate spreads have also begun to monitor the trade balance. Because the government may intervene to lower the exchange rate of the US dollar to reduce the trade deficit, this may bring huge losses to investors who have long US dollar positions. On the contrary, if the government starts to \"laissez-faire\" foreign trade, the spread will become the focus of traders again.The Trump administration's top priority is to reduce the US trade deficitAt present, the mainstream view in the market is that the widening interest rate spread between the United States, Japan and Europe is the main reason for the sharp strengthening of the US dollar.Among the strengthening of the US dollar this year, the appreciation of the US dollar against the Japanese yen is the most obvious, because despite the rising domestic inflation rate, Japan has not shown the intention of normalizing monetary policy, and the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan has been widening. However, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the currencies of the United Kingdom and the euro zone also rose, and both regions clearly raised their policy rates.Therefore, Gu Chaoming believes that the large interest rate spread alone is not enough to explain the recent violent fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. Because under Trump, the yen barely changed against the dollar despite the similar level of interest rate spreads as it is now. One key reason is that the Trump administration's top priority is to reduce the U.S. trade deficit. It is no exaggeration to say that this is the only policy that the government has consistently adhered to.During the Obama administration in September 2014, after the Federal Reserve announced that it would normalize interest rates, the US dollar strengthened rapidly against other currencies, giving the blue-collar working class in the United States a strong sense of crisis. As a member of the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA), Mexico's currency once fell by 48.0% against the US dollar, and the Canadian dollar once fell by 36.7% against the US dollar.Trump is aware of the fears and urgency of these workers, and he promised on his own campaign to protect America's manufacturing industry-even if it requires protectionist policies. It's also what he has advocated for years, helping him defeat his Democratic opponents. In addition, he ensured that this promise was realized with practical policies by raising tariffs on many imported goods.Gu Chaoming believes that once the United States, as a trade deficit country, decides to focus on correcting the trade imbalance, the foreign exchange market will undergo major changes. Traders who had previously focused almost exclusively on interest rate spreads have also begun to monitor the trade balance.Because the U.S. government may intervene at any time to lower the dollar exchange rate to reduce the trade deficit. This could result in huge losses for investors who take long dollar positions.Furthermore, the large U.S. trade deficit with Japan means that trade-driven trading has continued pressure on the yen's rise and the dollar's decline. The reason why the US dollar continues to strengthen is also because Japanese investors are buying the US dollar due to higher interest rates.Gu Chaoming pointed out that once Trump was elected, these investors were forced to be more cautious about long US dollar positions. Due to Japan's trade surplus with the United States, the proportion of trade-related demand in yen demand increased, thus reducing the sensitivity of the exchange rate to interest rate spreads. This is the main reason why the US dollar did not strengthen after Trump took office, although the interest rate spread between the US dollar and Japan and Europe widened significantly.For about ten years after the signing of the Plaza Accord in September 1985, the foreign exchange market has also paid close attention to the trade balance issue; The extremely strong dollar fueled the wave of industrial protectionism in the United States, and the signing of the Plaza Accord eased these pressures by depressing the exchange rate of the dollar.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60286e889461327424a72bbed343aadf\" tg-width=\"777\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Later, concerns about the trade balance caused the yen's exchange rate against the dollar to plummet from 240 at the time of the agreement to 80 in April 1995, although the interest rate level in the United States has been higher than that in Japan during this period.Before Trump took office, the U.S. government didn't pay too much attention to the trade imbalance for 20 years, and the interest rate spread became an important factor in determining the exchange rate. But the Trump administration's renewed focus on the issue has once again changed the behavior of foreign exchange market participants.Biden puts less emphasis on trade imbalancesAfter Biden took office, he was reluctant to return to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and introduced the \"buy American\" policy accused of trade protectionism, thus distancing himself from pure free trade policies, but at least for now, he has not made trade imbalances a major problem.Now that inflation has become the most pressing economic problem right now, the U.S. government seems willing to accept a strong dollar to help curb inflation, even if it exacerbates trade imbalances.Judging from the attitude of the Biden administration, Gu Chaoming believes that the main reason why the yen exchange rate is so sensitive to interest rate spreads is that the government no longer regards correcting trade imbalances as a key priority.But even if inflation persists, he believes it would be unwise for the Biden administration to ignore the strength of the dollar, as it could rekindle the protectionist sentiment that gave Trump the 2016 election victory.With Trump and his supporters still wielding significant political influence in the United States, allowing the dollar to rise unchecked is a significant risk for President Biden and the Democratic Party trying to win back blue-collar voters.Moreover, Biden, as a president seeking unity and a free world, should not want a resurgence of protectionism in the United States, which threatens to undermine the bonds of unity.According to estimates by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the real effective exchange rate of the US dollar is now approaching the level it was 37 years ago, when a surge in protectionist sentiment led to the signing of the Plaza Accord in 1985. Gu Chaoming believes that,The Biden administration will eventually be forced to put the brakes on the dollar's strong rise.</body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the foreign exchange market \"monstrous waves\", and the US dollar is rising like this just because of the interest rate spread?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the foreign exchange market \"monstrous waves\", and the US dollar is rising like this just because of the interest rate spread?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2022-09-24 15:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>At the Jackson Hole meeting in August, the hawkish signal released by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, coupled with the CPI data in August, all hinted at the need to tighten policy, which made the market uneasy.The foreign exchange market also responded accordingly: the yen once rose to 131 against the US dollar in early August due to expectations that the Federal Reserve would ease policy, but after Powell's speech, the yen exchange rate once plummeted to nearly 145.Foreign exchange market volatility in 2022 will be much more violent than before, especially compared with the administration of US President Trump. So why is the foreign exchange market, which was almost unresponsive to spreads during the Trump administration, so sensitive to them now?In a research report released on Wednesday, Gu Chaoming, chief economist of Nomura Securities Research Institute, pointed out that this increase in volatility can be attributed to two main factors: the most intuitive is the major change in the macroeconomic environment represented by the return of inflation. shift, and another more potential factor is the shift in U.S. government priorities.Trump's commitment to reducing the U.S. trade deficit has led to an increase in the proportion of trade-related demand in yen demand, thus reducing the sensitivity of the exchange rate to interest rate spreads. However, Biden's low emphasis on trade imbalances has gradually restored the foreign exchange market's high sensitivity to interest rate spreads.As a trade deficit country, once the United States decides to focus on correcting the trade imbalance, the foreign exchange market will undergo major changes. Traders who previously focused almost exclusively on interest rate spreads have also begun to monitor the trade balance. Because the government may intervene to lower the exchange rate of the US dollar to reduce the trade deficit, this may bring huge losses to investors who have long US dollar positions. On the contrary, if the government starts to \"laissez-faire\" foreign trade, the spread will become the focus of traders again.The Trump administration's top priority is to reduce the US trade deficitAt present, the mainstream view in the market is that the widening interest rate spread between the United States, Japan and Europe is the main reason for the sharp strengthening of the US dollar.Among the strengthening of the US dollar this year, the appreciation of the US dollar against the Japanese yen is the most obvious, because despite the rising domestic inflation rate, Japan has not shown the intention of normalizing monetary policy, and the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan has been widening. However, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the currencies of the United Kingdom and the euro zone also rose, and both regions clearly raised their policy rates.Therefore, Gu Chaoming believes that the large interest rate spread alone is not enough to explain the recent violent fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. Because under Trump, the yen barely changed against the dollar despite the similar level of interest rate spreads as it is now. One key reason is that the Trump administration's top priority is to reduce the U.S. trade deficit. It is no exaggeration to say that this is the only policy that the government has consistently adhered to.During the Obama administration in September 2014, after the Federal Reserve announced that it would normalize interest rates, the US dollar strengthened rapidly against other currencies, giving the blue-collar working class in the United States a strong sense of crisis. As a member of the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA), Mexico's currency once fell by 48.0% against the US dollar, and the Canadian dollar once fell by 36.7% against the US dollar.Trump is aware of the fears and urgency of these workers, and he promised on his own campaign to protect America's manufacturing industry-even if it requires protectionist policies. It's also what he has advocated for years, helping him defeat his Democratic opponents. In addition, he ensured that this promise was realized with practical policies by raising tariffs on many imported goods.Gu Chaoming believes that once the United States, as a trade deficit country, decides to focus on correcting the trade imbalance, the foreign exchange market will undergo major changes. Traders who had previously focused almost exclusively on interest rate spreads have also begun to monitor the trade balance.Because the U.S. government may intervene at any time to lower the dollar exchange rate to reduce the trade deficit. This could result in huge losses for investors who take long dollar positions.Furthermore, the large U.S. trade deficit with Japan means that trade-driven trading has continued pressure on the yen's rise and the dollar's decline. The reason why the US dollar continues to strengthen is also because Japanese investors are buying the US dollar due to higher interest rates.Gu Chaoming pointed out that once Trump was elected, these investors were forced to be more cautious about long US dollar positions. Due to Japan's trade surplus with the United States, the proportion of trade-related demand in yen demand increased, thus reducing the sensitivity of the exchange rate to interest rate spreads. This is the main reason why the US dollar did not strengthen after Trump took office, although the interest rate spread between the US dollar and Japan and Europe widened significantly.For about ten years after the signing of the Plaza Accord in September 1985, the foreign exchange market has also paid close attention to the trade balance issue; The extremely strong dollar fueled the wave of industrial protectionism in the United States, and the signing of the Plaza Accord eased these pressures by depressing the exchange rate of the dollar.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60286e889461327424a72bbed343aadf\" tg-width=\"777\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Later, concerns about the trade balance caused the yen's exchange rate against the dollar to plummet from 240 at the time of the agreement to 80 in April 1995, although the interest rate level in the United States has been higher than that in Japan during this period.Before Trump took office, the U.S. government didn't pay too much attention to the trade imbalance for 20 years, and the interest rate spread became an important factor in determining the exchange rate. But the Trump administration's renewed focus on the issue has once again changed the behavior of foreign exchange market participants.Biden puts less emphasis on trade imbalancesAfter Biden took office, he was reluctant to return to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and introduced the \"buy American\" policy accused of trade protectionism, thus distancing himself from pure free trade policies, but at least for now, he has not made trade imbalances a major problem.Now that inflation has become the most pressing economic problem right now, the U.S. government seems willing to accept a strong dollar to help curb inflation, even if it exacerbates trade imbalances.Judging from the attitude of the Biden administration, Gu Chaoming believes that the main reason why the yen exchange rate is so sensitive to interest rate spreads is that the government no longer regards correcting trade imbalances as a key priority.But even if inflation persists, he believes it would be unwise for the Biden administration to ignore the strength of the dollar, as it could rekindle the protectionist sentiment that gave Trump the 2016 election victory.With Trump and his supporters still wielding significant political influence in the United States, allowing the dollar to rise unchecked is a significant risk for President Biden and the Democratic Party trying to win back blue-collar voters.Moreover, Biden, as a president seeking unity and a free world, should not want a resurgence of protectionism in the United States, which threatens to undermine the bonds of unity.According to estimates by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the real effective exchange rate of the US dollar is now approaching the level it was 37 years ago, when a surge in protectionist sentiment led to the signing of the Plaza Accord in 1985. Gu Chaoming believes that,The Biden administration will eventually be forced to put the brakes on the dollar's strong rise.</body></html>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671016\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09cf2db5f7225d7179abca2fbd40479","relate_stocks":{"UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671016","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1180307266","content_text":"在8月的杰克逊霍尔会议上，美联储主席鲍威尔释放的鹰派信号，加上8月份的CPI数据都暗示了收紧政策的必要性，令市场感到不安。外汇市场也做出了相应的反应：由于预期美联储将放宽政策，日元兑美元汇率在8月上旬曾一度升至131，但在鲍威尔讲话后，日元汇率一度暴跌至近145。2022年的汇市波动要比以前剧烈得多，特别是与美国总统特朗普执政期间相比。那么，为什么在特朗普政府时期对利差几乎毫无反应的外汇市场，现在却对利差如此敏感呢？在周三发布的研报中，野村证券研究院首席经济学家辜朝明指出，这种波动性的增加可以归因于两个主要因素：最直观的是以通胀回归为代表的宏观经济环境的重大转变，而另一个更潜在的因素就是美国政府优先事项的转变。特朗普政府致力于减少美国的贸易逆差，导致与贸易相关的需求在日元需求中的比重增加了，进而降低了汇率对利差的敏感性。但拜登对贸易失衡的重视程度较低，使汇市逐渐恢复了对利差的高敏感性。美国作为贸易逆差国，一旦其决定将重点放在纠正贸易不平衡上，外汇市场将发生重大变化，此前几乎只关注利差的交易员也开始监测贸易收支问题。因为政府可能采取干预手段压低美元汇率以减少贸易逆差，这可能会给做多美元头寸的投资者带来巨大损失。反之，如果政府开始“放任”对外贸易，利差就会重新变成交易员的关注点。特朗普政府的首要任务是减少美国的贸易逆差目前市场的主流观点是，美国与日本和欧洲之间的利差扩大，是推动美元大幅走强的主要原因。在今年以来美元的走强中，美元兑日元的升值最为明显，因为尽管国内通胀率不断上升，但日本并未表现出货币政策正常化的意图，美日利差不断走阔。但美元兑英国和欧元区货币的汇率也出现上涨，这两个地区明明都上调了政策利率。因此辜朝明认为，仅靠较大的利差不足以解释近期外汇市场的剧烈波动。因为在特朗普执政时期，尽管利差水平与现在相似，但日元兑美元汇率几乎没有变化。一个关键原因是，特朗普政府的首要任务是减少美国的贸易逆差。毫不夸张地说，这是政府唯一一贯坚持的政策。2014年9月奥巴马执政期间，美联储宣布将推进利率正常化后，美元兑其他货币迅速走强，让美国的蓝领工人阶级产生了强烈的危机感。墨西哥作为北美自由贸易区（NAFTA）成员国，其货币兑美元汇率一度下跌48.0%，加拿大元兑美元也一度下跌36.7%。特朗普意识到这些工人的恐惧和紧迫感，他在自己的竞选活动中承诺保护美国的制造业——即使这需要采取保护主义政策。这也是他多年来一直倡导的，帮助他击败了民主党对手。此外，他还通过提高对许多进口商品的关税，确保用实际政策实现这一承诺。辜朝明认为，美国作为贸易逆差国，一旦其决定将重点放在纠正贸易不平衡上，外汇市场将发生重大变化，此前几乎只关注利差的交易员也开始监测贸易收支问题。因为美国政府可能在任何时候采取干预手段压低美元汇率，以减少贸易逆差。这可能会给做多美元头寸的投资者带来巨大损失。此外，美国对日本的巨额贸易逆差意味着，贸易驱动的交易对日元上涨和美元下跌有持续的压力。美元之所以持续走强，也是因为日本投资者因较高的利率水平而买入美元。辜朝明指出，一旦特朗普当选，迫使这些投资者对做多美元头寸持更为谨慎的态度，由于日本对美国的贸易顺差，与贸易相关的需求在日元需求中的比重增加了，进而降低了汇率对利差的敏感性。这是特朗普上台后，尽管美元与日本和欧洲的利差大幅扩大，但美元没有走强的主要原因。从1985年9月《广场协议》签订后的大约十年里，外汇市场也密切关注贸易平衡问题；极度强势的美元助长了美国的工业保护主义浪潮，广场协议的签订通过压低美元汇率来缓解这些压力。后来，对贸易平衡的关注使日元兑美元汇率从协议签订时的240骤降至1995年4月的80，尽管在此期间美国利率水平一直高于日本。在特朗普上台前，美国政府在20年的时间里都没有过多关注贸易失衡问题，利差成为决定汇率的重要因素。但特朗普政府重新关注这一问题，再次改变了外汇市场参与者的行为。拜登对贸易失衡的重视程度较低拜登上台后，其不愿重返跨太平洋伙伴关系协定（TPP），以及出台被指责为贸易保护主义的“只买美国货”（buy American）政策，从而与纯粹的自由贸易政策拉开了距离，但至少就目前而言，他也没有把贸易失衡作为一个主要问题。既然通胀已成为目前最紧迫的经济问题，美国政府似乎愿意接受强势美元以帮助遏制通胀，即使这会加剧贸易失衡。从拜登政府的态度来看，辜朝明认为，日元汇率之所以对利差如此敏感，主要原因是政府不再将纠正贸易失衡视为关键的优先事项。但即使通胀持续，他认为拜登政府忽视美元的走强也是不明智的，因为这可能重新点燃让特朗普在2016年大选中获胜的保护主义情绪。由于特朗普和他的支持者仍在美国发挥着重要的政治影响力，允许美元不受限制地上涨对拜登总统和试图赢回蓝领阶层选民的民主党来说是一个重大风险。此外，拜登作为一位寻求团结和自由世界的总统，应该不会希望保护主义在美国死灰复燃，这有可能破坏团结的纽带。根据国际清算银行（BIS）的估计，美元的实际有效汇率目前正接近37年前的水平，当时保护主义情绪的高涨导致了1985年广场协议的签署。辜朝明认为，拜登政府最终将被迫为美元的强势上涨踩下刹车。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UUP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1780,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}